Posts Tagged ‘GMCR’

$1,500 Friday – Yesterday’s Futures Play Pays Big!

That's $2,200 in two days playing with us!

Not bad for free picks, right?  On Wednesday, we played the Nasdaq Futures (/NQ) short at 4,100 and those gave us a nice, $700 per contract gain in just a few hours.  Yesterday, we reviewed that trade idea right in the morning post (which you can have delivered to you every morning, pre-market, by SUBSCRIBING HERE) and I added:

That's why, today, right now, we are once again shorting the Futures at 17,100 in /YM(Dow) and 2,005 on /ES (S&P) and 1,175 on /TF(Russell).  Yesterday we shorted the Nasdaq(/NQ) at 4,100 – a trade idea I outlined in the morning post for our subscribers – and that trade made $700 per contract by noon.  Not a bad day's work, right?  

SPY 5 MINUTEFutures trading is a useful skill as we can make adjustments to our trading almost anytime we get some new information – even when the market is closed.  

We played bullish on Draghi fever early in the morning and then, in our Live Member Chat Room, at 10:35, we nailed the turn for a re-entry at 1,180 on the Russell (/TF Futures), 17,150 on the Dow (/YM) and 2,010 on the S&P (/ES) as well as $95 on oil (/CL) and we were rewarded with moves down to 1,160 (+$2,000 per contract), 17,025 (+$625 per contract), 1,990 (+$1,000 per contract) and $94.25 (+$750 per contract).  

As I said yesterday, we can make trades like this because the market is RIGGED and we understand how it's rigged, which enables us to play along and profit from the manipulation.  We don't like it, we don't endorse it but, since it happens every day – we may as well bet on it, right?  

Of course there are other ways to make money on pullback and we teach those as well at PSW. Here's a couple of trade ideas we had for our Members
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Thrilling Thursday – Rejection at S&P 2,000

SPY 5 MINUTEOh my God, it's dip!  

The Futures are off a bit today and that's no surprise to those of us who have been paying attention to the volume, or lack thereof, as we made our final approach at the 2,000 line on the S&P 500.  Jim Cramer was literally foaming at the mouth this week as he and his CNBC co-conspirators herded the sheeple into the markets to participate in the tail end of the rally, where the suckers could hold the bags for their Corporate Masters.  

Why am I angry at Cramer today?  Because yesterday he committed the same crime he commtted in 2008 that cost so many people their life's savings – he told people not to sell their stocks on a pullback.  "Don't take profits" is the message for the viewing public.  But, I would ask, if people don't take profits – when will they ever get profits?  What kind of stupid message is that?  Well, it's the message that leaves you holding the bag while his hedge fund buddies head for the exits.  It's not much different than telling one group of people not to leave a burning building while you make sure all your friends are getting out safely.

"This is not just my opinion. I can prove it to you empirically. See, as I was preparing to write my book "Get Rich Carefully," I went over the previous five years of trades made by my charitable trust. And as I reviewed those trades I noticed that far too often, my good judgment would be overcome by excessive skepticism."

If the "proof" Jim is talking about is his Action Alerts Plus, then I'd say you really should think long and hard about following his advice here (via Kirk Lindstrom – who does compete with Cramer):

Jim Cramer's Action Alerts Plus Performance & Returns

I guess, sure, Jim legitimately should regret that he wasn't more bullish from 2008 to 2013, when the market popped 200% and his trust gained about 100% but don't you think the lesson Cramer should be taking from that experience is to CUT YOUR LOSSES, not
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Monday Markets are Meaty, Beaty, Big and Bouncy!

 

"Thruppence and sixpence every day
Just to drive to my baby

I don't care how much I pay (Too much, Magic Bus)
I wanna drive my bus to my baby each day (Too much, Magic Bus)

I don't want to cause no fuss (Too much, Magic Bus)
But can I buy your Magic Bus? (Too much, Magic Bus) " – The Who

This is certainly one Magic Bus of a market, flipping on a dime or, more accurately, bouncing off the Dow's 200 day moving average at 16,350 back towards our predicted strong bounce line at 16,650.  The Transports are also bouncing right off the 100 dma at 142, down from 152 and. per our 5% Rule™, we expect 146 to be tested this morning.  This is not "surprising", this is what we said would happen on Friday morning.  

As we discussed all of last week, BALANCE is the key in a choppy market and our Long-Term Portfolio finished Friday at $590K, up exactly 18% for the year, while our Short-Term Portfolio jumped to $136,000, up 36% for the year and together they are $726,000, up over 20% for the year on our two primary virtual portfolios.  

8-9-2014 12-05-11 AM DIAHaving well-balanced portfolios allowed us to ride out the dip and, in fact, buy more longs while the market was pulling back, rather than panicking out of positions that, for the most part, only went down with the market – rather than because there was any actual weakness in the stock.  

Our general strategy of Being the House – Not the Gambler is also a great help in consistently making progress in our portfolios, even when the market has such a choppy week.  

For most traders, it's "thruppence and sixpence every day" just to hold on to their positions as they gyrate up and down.  As sellers of premium, we own the Magic Bus and we collect those daily pennies instead of selling them and that acts as a tremendous buffer to our long-term investing, where simply hanging on to a position allows us to collect another day's rent!  

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$29 Trillion Tuesday – Central Banksters Gone Wild!

Fake it 'till you make it.  

While it was Aristotle who said that "acting virtuous will make one virtuous" (and clearly Aristotle hasn't been to the same charity events/wealth orgies that I have, or he never would have said it), it is our modern Central Banking system that decrees that "acting like the economy is better will make the economy better."  

Now, perhaps if they had spent $29,000,000,000,000 by giving 7Bn people $4,142.85 each – we WOULD have a better economy now – but that's not what happened at all, is it?  Instead, 70,000 people and corporations (the top 0.0001%) got an average of $414M each while the other 99.9999% of us, especially the bottom 90% actually are now worse off than when the Central Banksters decided to meddle in our affairs in the first place.  

The rich are indeed getting stunningly richer with the Forbes 400 (richest Americans) AVERAGING $800M gains in 2013 as the stock market (where most of their money is) rose over 30%.  Again – AVERAGE gains of $800M per Billionaire!  Once you get past #50 on the list (Google's Eric Schmidt with $8.3Bn), that's AT LEAST 10% of their total net worth added in a single year!

 As I said in our recent trade review "Thank You Sir, MAY I Have Another", if they are just going to keep giving away money like this – we're going to just have to keep taking it (through our many bullish trade ideas) but, at some point, the music will stop and you'd BETTER be able to find a chair fast!  

There's a very good reason the Corporate Media is constantly telling you how bad "class warfare" would be - BECAUSE THEY ARE ALREADY WINNING THE WAR AND YOU ARE NOT EVEN FIGHTING!!!

Like any good game of musical chairs, we have no idea when the music is going to stop, so we all have to keep dancing around like nothing is wrong until it does.  As I pointed out yesterday, it's very easy to pay $150Bn for Amazon (at $327 per share) with money you just printed because…
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How to Turn $25,000 into $500,000 in 15 Years

Would you like a 20x return on your investments?

In our Weekly Webcast on Tuesday (replay available here), we discussed various ways you can make a nice retirement nest-egg for yourself as well as various stock and option strategies (and 9 new trade ideas to go with them) that can put you on the road to becomming a millionaire.  

Unfortunately, none of these are "instant" – these are not lottery tickets but long-term, time-tested strategies that can give you everything you ever dreamed of – IF you are willing to work for it.  

These same strategies can also be applied to generate an income off your retirement savings without digging back into your principal each year.    

We don't sell magic beans at Philstockworld, we teach our Members HOW to invest and put them on the road to wealth but it requires hard work and dedication on your part.  If you are willing to make the  effort, though, we are happy to show you how to make the climb.  

In the Webinar, we discussed turning $100,000 into $1M, $2M and $5M over various periods of time but we neglected to talk about strategies for people starting our with smaller amounts, say $25,000 to start.  We do run a virtual $25,000 Portfolio for our Members – to identify simple trades that require no margin and no day-trading (you really can't day-trade with $25,000 and, most likely, you have a job to do during the day anyway!) yet are still able to generate nice returns.  

Before we start, I want to get you comfortable with the math involved.  Money Chimp has a very nice Compound Interest Calculator which I'm using for my calculations and on the left is the model for the base premise of this article.   Follow the link and play with it so you can see how different strategies affect your Future Value

For instance, notice I'm going to tell you to add $2,000 a year to your account. That gets you to $558,000 after 15 years.  What if you don't add $2,000 a year to your account?   Then you…
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Green Mountain Coffee Call Spread Looks For Shares To Rebound

GMCR – Green Mountain Coffee Roasters, Inc. – Weekly call and put options on Green Mountain Coffee Roasters attracted a mix of bullish and bearish trades today, with shares in the provider of the Keurig single-cup brewing machines down more than 2.0% during the first half of the session at $73.25.

Shares in GMCR have dropped approximately 17% during the past month, but a debit call spread purchased on the stock during the first 30 minutes of the trading week indicates one strategist is positioning for the price of the underlying to rebound during the next four trading sessions. It looks like the trader purchased a 460-lot Oct 04 ’13 $74/$77.5 call spread for a net premium of $1.07 per contract. The spread makes money if shares in GMCR rally 2.5% over the current price of $73.25 to exceed the effective breakeven point at $75.07, and makes maximum potential profits of $2.43 per contract given a roughly 6.0% rally in the price of the underlying to $77.50 by expiration this weekend. 

BMY – Bristol-Myers Squibb Co. – Shares in the drug maker are bucking the trend today, up as much as 0.75% during morning trading to $46.54, amid a down day for U.S. stocks.

Trading in BMY call options today indicates some traders are positioning for shares in the name to rally significantly in the next couple of months. The most active contracts by volume on Bristol-Myers are the Nov $50 strike calls, with around 5,000 lots in play against open interest of just 16 contracts. Time and sales data from this morning suggests most of the volume was purchased at an average premium of $0.29 each. Buyers of the $50 calls stand ready to profit at November expiration in the event that shares rally 8.0% to exceed an average breakeven point and fresh 52-week high of $50.29. Shares in Bristol-Myers traded up to $49.57 in June, the highest level in more than a decade. 


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Best Buy Bulls Bulk Up On Weekly Calls As Stock Hits Highest Since July ’11

Today’s tickers: BBY, GMCR & EBAY

BBY - Best Buy, Inc. – Shares in Best Buy are soaring on Monday, up as much as 7.7% during morning trading to hit $29.44, the highest level since July of 2011, after the stock was resumed at ‘Outperform’ with an increased target price of $40.00 from $32.00 at Credit Suisse today. Trading traffic in weekly options on the consumer electronics retailer suggest some strategists are positioning for shares in the name to extend gains during the shortened U.S. trading week. The most actively traded weekly contracts by volume this morning are the Jul 05 ’13 $29 strike calls, with upwards of 1,300 lots in play versus open interest of 75 contracts. Bullish traders appear to have purchased most of the contracts for an average premium of $0.37 apiece and may profit at expiration should Best Buy’s shares exceed the average breakeven price of $29.37. Upside calls at the Jul 19 ’13 $30 strike are also active today, with around 630 lots purchased during morning trading at an average premium of $0.54 each. The contracts make money if shares in Best Buy rise another 3.7% to top $30.54 during the next few weeks to expiration. Shares in BBY are up more than 140% since the start of 2013.

GMCR - Green Mountain Coffee Roasters, Inc. – A sizable trade in January 2014 expiry put options on Green Mountain Coffee Roasters initiated within the first 40 minutes of the opening bell this morning suggests one trader may be bracing for a pullback in shares of the coffee producer, with the stock up more than 250% since this time last year. Shares in GMCR today are up 3.3% at $77.72 as of 12:25 p.m. in New York. It looks like one trader purchased 5,000 puts at the Jan 2014 $60 striking price for a premium of $5.35 per contract. The position starts making money in the event that shares in Green Mountain plunge 30% from the current price of $77.72 to breach the effective breakeven…
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Green Mountain Weekly Options Heat Up As Shares Climb

 

Today’s tickers: GMCR, INTC & SHFL

GMCR - Green Mountain Coffee Roasters, Inc. – Weekly options on the specialty coffee company and provider of Keurig single-cup brewing systems are active this morning with shares in Green Mountain up nearly 10% in the first half of the session to touch $30.49, the highest the shares have traded since May. Green Mountain’s shares are moving higher for a third consecutive session, having rallied sharply last week, and some options traders appear to be positioning for the price of the underlying to extend gains this week. Bullish bets are on the rise at the Sep. 14 ’12 $29 and $30 strikes, the two highest strike prices currently available in GMCR weekly options. Traders exchanged upwards of 1,100 in-the-money calls at the $29 strike, and appear to have purchased most of the volume for an average premium of $1.28 apiece. Weekly call volume is heaviest up at the $30 strike where more than 2,200 lots changed hands against open interest of 817 contracts. It looks like most of the $30 calls were purchased this morning for an average premium of $0.91 each. Traders long the $30 calls may profit at expiration in the event Green Mountain’s shares settle above the average breakeven price of $30.91. Shares in the seller of K-cups are still down nearly 75% since this time last year. Overall options volume on GMCR is greater than usual, with 60,000 contracts in play as of midday in New York versus the stock’s average daily options volume of around 18,500 contracts.

INTC - Intel Corp. – Shares in chip giant, Intel Corp., are getting hit today on concerns the company may need further cuts to guidance following Friday’s downward revision to its third-quarter revenue forecast. The stock is down 3.3% this afternoon to stand at $23.40 as of 12:30 p.m. ET, adding to a more than 4% drop in the price of the underlying on Friday. Trading traffic…
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EMC Bearish Puts In Focus; Monster, Green Mountain Upside Calls In Play

 

Today’s tickers: EMC, MWW & GMCR

EMC - EMC Corp. – Bearish positioning in EMC Corp. options is on the rise this morning as shares in the provider of enterprise storage systems, software and services move 5.5% lower to $23.85. EMC and other software providers are getting hit hard today after Informatica Corp. reported preliminary second-quarter earnings and revenue that missed estimates amid a challenging macroeconomic environment, particularly in Europe. A disappointing jobs number is also pressuring U.S. equities on the final trading session of the week. One strategist appears to have purchased disaster insurance on EMC Corp. within the first five minutes of the opening bell this morning. The Jan. 2013 $16 strike put changed hands more than 2,000 times against open interest of just 30 contracts and it looks like nearly all of the puts were purchased for an average premium of $0.29 apiece. The put options may increase in value over the second half of the year should shares in EMC continue to pull back. The price of the underlying is still positive for the year, up 8.8% year-to-date; however, the stock has come off sharply in recent months, down 20.5% from a 52-week high of $30.00 set at the end of March. The $16 puts are profitable at expiration next year in the event EMC’s shares tumble 34% from the current level to breach the average breakeven price of $15.71. This breakeven point is well below the stock’s 52-week low of $19.84, though well above the stock’s financial crisis low of $8.25. Near-term bearish action is also evident in the Aug. $23 puts where some 3,300 puts were picked up for an average premium of $0.70 apiece in the first half of the trading session. EMC Corp. reports its second-quarter results ahead of the open on July 24th.

MWW - Monster Worldwide, Inc. – Shares in online employment search and services provider, Monster Worldwide, are down…
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Green Mountain Shares Anything But Robusta As Stock Slips To Fresh Record Lows

 

Today’s tickers: GMCR, PBI & FMCN

GMCR - Green Mountain Coffee Roasters, Inc. – Shares in Green Mountain Coffee Roasters fell as much as 8.95% this morning to a fresh all-time low of $21.06 after grocery chain operator, Kroger Co., said it plans to sell private label coffee pods for Green Mountain’s Keurig single-cup brewing machine. GMCR’s patent on the K-cups expires in September. Green Mountain’s shares have lost 80.0% of their value since September 2011, when the stock touched an all-time high of $115.98. Options traders expecting shares in GMCR to extend losses snapped up puts on the Waterbury, Vermont-based coffee company. Short-term bearish bets are building in the June $21 strike put where some 2,500 lots were purchased for an average premium of $0.53 apiece. Strategists positioning for a more severe pullback in the price of the underlying picked up roughly 2,000 puts at the July $17 strike for an average premium of $0.66 each. Traders long the $17 strike put stand prepared to profit at expiration next month should shares in Green Mountain tumble 22.4% from today’s low of $22.06 to breach the average breakeven price of $16.34. Not all of the action in GMCR options is bearish today; some strategists appear to be buying out-of-the-money calls that could pay off if shares in GMCR stage a near-term rebound.

PBI - Pitney Bowes, Inc. – Heavier than usual options activity on Pitney Bowes pushed the provider of end-to-end mail stream solutions onto our ‘hot by options volume’ market scanner this morning, with the day’s volume up near 17,000 lots versus the stock’s average daily volume over the past 90 days of 6,713 contracts. Shares in PBI are currently down 1.0% to stand at $14.14 in early-afternoon trading. Almost all of the volume is in the July $13 strike put where more than 16,600 contracts changed hands against open interest of 4,205 contracts. It looks like most of the puts were sold for…
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Phil's Favorites

Where have all the cowboys gone?

 

Where have all the cowboys gone?

Courtesy of Joshua M. Brown

Flipping out over how awesome this new post at Michael Batnick’s blog is, which presents the career arc of history’s most important investors of all time. He takes their dates of birth, advances them 22 years for a typical career starting point, and then overlays them with the future cumulative performance of the Dow Jones Industrial Average to give you a sense of how much wind they had at their backs.

Looks like this (click to embiggen!):

...



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Zero Hedge

All You Need To Know About The China Boom-Bust Cycle In One Chart

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by Tyler Durden.

If anyone is still confused about the not so subtle dynamics between markets and monetary policy in China, or the country's bipolar, and ever more frequent boom and bust cycles, you won't be after seeing this chart from Socgen.

If still unclear, here is SocGen's explanation:

Our economists expect China’s structural deceleration to continue over the coming years and it should thus remain a major source of...



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Chart School

Equity Valuations, Recessions and Stock Market Declines

Courtesy of Doug Short's Advisor Perspectives.

Note: In response to an email, I've updated the data in this article through the March month-end numbers and at the launch of the Q1 2016 earnings season.

When I initiated the dshort web page in late 2005, one of my routine topics was equity valuations, initially inspired by Nobel laureate Robert Shiller's book, Irrational Exuberance, the second edition of which was published earlier that year. I gradually expanded my focus from his cyclically adjusted price-to-earnings ratio (CAPE) to include Ed Easterling's Crestmont P/E, Nobel laureate James Tobin's Q Ratio and m...



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ValueWalk

Wilbur Ross discusses Donald Trump's candidacy, and his investing strategy

By Jacob Wolinsky. Originally published at ValueWalk.


Wilbur Ross discusses Donald Trump’s candidacy, and his investing strategy

The post Wilbur Ross discusses Donald Trump’s candidacy, and his investing strategy appeared first on ValueWalk.

Sign up for ValueWalk's free newsletter here.

...

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Market News

News You Can Use From Phil's Stock World

 

Financial Markets and Economy

Global Stocks Broadly Higher, Reversing Early Losses (Wall Street Journal)

Global stocks climbed Tuesday, while the dollar strengthened against the euro and yen.

Shares, dollar climb as markets play Fed waiting game (Reuters)

European shares were heading for their best day in over a month on Tuesday as the waiting game to see whether the U.S. raises interest rates again next month sent the euro to its lowest since March.

Asian shares had stumbled to near 2-1/2-month lows ove...



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OpTrader

Swing trading portfolio - week of May 23rd, 2016

Reminder: OpTrader is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

This post is for all our live virtual trade ideas and daily comments. Please click on "comments" below to follow our live discussion. All of our current  trades are listed in the spreadsheet below, with entry price (1/2 in and All in), and exit prices (1/3 out, 2/3 out, and All out).

We also indicate our stop, which is most of the time the "5 day moving average". All trades, unless indicated, are front-month ATM options. 

Please feel free to participate in the discussion and ask any questions you might have about this virtual portfolio, by clicking on the "comments" link right below.

To learn more about the swing trading virtual portfolio (strategy, performance, FAQ, etc.), please click here ...



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Kimble Charting Solutions

Gold- Two-thirds odds prices fall on a support break

Courtesy of Chris Kimble.

CLICK ON CHART TO ENLARGE

Since the peak in 2011, Gold remains in a downtrend, creating a series of lower high and lower lows.

Gold’s rally in 2016 is attempting to break this 5-year falling trend, as it is attempting to break a series of lower highs.

Over the past 6-months, Gold could be creating a rising wedge pattern. This pattern two-thirds of the time, suggests lower prices are ahead.

...

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Digital Currencies

The Biggest Bitcoin Arbitrage Ever?

Courtesy of Chris at CapitalistExploits

Do you remember when you were growing up and all your friends were allowed Atari game consoles but you weren’t?

Well, I do and the things seemed as foreign to me as Venus. Mostly because the little time I managed to spend on the gaming consoles when my friends weren’t hogging them I found it all a bit silly. I never “got” computer games, and to this day still have poor comprehension of things like Angry Birds.

I suspect that many people around the world view Bitcoin in the same way as I view Angry Birds: with mild amusement and a general lack of understanding as to what the hell all the fuss is about.

I was thinking of this since a buddy of mine recently started ...



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All About Trends

Mid-Day Update

Reminder: Harlan is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

Click here for the full report.




To learn more, sign up for David's free newsletter and receive the free report from All About Trends - "How To Outperform 90% Of Wall Street With Just $500 A Week." Tell David PSW sent you. - Ilene...

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Biotech

This Is Why Biotech Stocks May Explode Again

Reminder: Pharmboy and Ilene are available to chat with Members.

Here's an interesting article from Investor's Business Daily arguing that biotech stocks are beginning to recover from their recent declines, notwithstanding current weakness.

This Is Why Biotech Stocks May Explode Again

By 

Excerpt:

After a three-year bull run that more than quadrupled its value by its peak last July, IBD’s Medical-Biomed/Biotech Industry Group plunged 50% by early February, hurt by backlashes against high drug prices and mergers that seek to lower corporate taxes.

...



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Mapping The Market

About that debate last night

Although we try to stay focused on finding and managing promising trade ideas, the comments in the comment section sometimes take a political turn (for access, try PSW — click here!). So today, Jean Luc writes,

The GOP debate last night was just unreal – are these people running to be president of the US or to lead a college fraternity! Comparing tool size? The only guy that looks semi-sane is Kasich. The other guys are just like 3 jackals right now. 

And something else – if Trump is the candidate, that little Romney speech yesterday is probably already being made into a commercial. And all these little snippets from the debate will also make some nice ads! If you are a conservative, you have to be scared now. 

Phil writes back,

I was expecting them to start throwing poop at each other &n...



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Promotions

PSW is more than just stock talk!

 

We know you love coming here for our Stocks & Options education, strategy and trade ideas, and for Phil's daily commentary which you can't live without, but there's more!

PhilStockWorld.com features the most important and most interesting news items from around the web, all day, every day!

News: If you missed it, you can probably find it in our Market News section. We sift through piles of news so you don't have to.   

If you are looking for non-mainstream, provocatively-narrated news and opinion pieces which promise to make you think -- we feature Zero Hedge, ...



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Help One Of Our Own PSW Members

"Hello PSW Members –

This is a non-trading topic, but I wanted to post it during trading hours so as many eyes can see it as possible.  Feel free to contact me directly at jennifersurovy@yahoo.com with any questions.

Last fall there was some discussion on the PSW board regarding setting up a YouCaring donation page for a PSW member, Shadowfax. Since then, we have been looking into ways to help get him additional medical services and to pay down his medical debts.  After following those leads, we are ready to move ahead with the YouCaring site. (Link is posted below.)  Any help you can give will be greatly appreciated; not only to help aid in his medical bill debt, but to also show what a great community this group is.

http://www.youcaring.com/medical-fundraiser/help-get-shadowfax-out-from-the-darkness-of-medical-bills-/126743

Thank you for you time!




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About Phil:

Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

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Ilene is editor and affiliate program coordinator for PSW. She manages the site market shadows, archives, more. Contact Ilene to learn about our affiliate and content sharing programs.

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