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$1,500 Friday – Yesterday’s Futures Play Pays Big!

That's $2,200 in two days playing with us!

Not bad for free picks, right?  On Wednesday, we played the Nasdaq Futures (/NQ) short at 4,100 and those gave us a nice, $700 per contract gain in just a few hours.  Yesterday, we reviewed that trade idea right in the morning post (which you can have delivered to you every morning, pre-market, by SUBSCRIBING HERE) and I added:

That's why, today, right now, we are once again shorting the Futures at 17,100 in /YM(Dow) and 2,005 on /ES (S&P) and 1,175 on /TF(Russell).  Yesterday we shorted the Nasdaq(/NQ) at 4,100 – a trade idea I outlined in the morning post for our subscribers – and that trade made $700 per contract by noon.  Not a bad day's work, right?  

SPY 5 MINUTEFutures trading is a useful skill as we can make adjustments to our trading almost anytime we get some new information – even when the market is closed.  

We played bullish on Draghi fever early in the morning and then, in our Live Member Chat Room, at 10:35, we nailed the turn for a re-entry at 1,180 on the Russell (/TF Futures), 17,150 on the Dow (/YM) and 2,010 on the S&P (/ES) as well as $95 on oil (/CL) and we were rewarded with moves down to 1,160 (+$2,000 per contract), 17,025 (+$625 per contract), 1,990 (+$1,000 per contract) and $94.25 (+$750 per contract).  

As I said yesterday, we can make trades like this because the market is RIGGED and we understand how it's rigged, which enables us to play along and profit from the manipulation.  We don't like it, we don't endorse it but, since it happens every day – we may as well bet on it, right?  

Of course there are other ways to make money on pullback and we teach those as well at PSW. Here's a couple of trade ideas we had for our Members recently under the category of Porfolio Protection:

  • Member Chat, 8/25Of course the SQQQ is a bet against AAPL to some extent but, longer-term, there is some advantage to going short TQQQ (because of the decay) and I like the Jan $87.50/75 bear put spread at $4.75 in the $12.50 spread as TQQQ is up at $88.27 and decay alone will put you a buck or two in the money if the Nas flatlines at 4,550. 
  • Member Chat, 8/25I mentioned TQQQ above and for SQQQ I'd go for the Oct $35/39 bull call spread at $1.20 with SQQQ at $35.87 so you are mostly in the money with $2.80 upside (233%) if SQQQ goes up 9%, which would be a 3% drop in the Nas.  
  • Morning Post, 8/28In the STP, we're short the Dow with DXD ($24.40) and short the Nasdaq with SQQQ ($35.70) and short GMCR ($134.73) and WYNN ($196) and XRT ($89.47) and FAS ($106.71) and BIDU ($215) and TSLA ($263) with a few long hedges on stocks we really like to the long side.  In short (get it?), we're very short and positioned for a correction at this point.  
  • Member Chat, 8/29:  With RUT 1,170, I lean back to good old TZA.  Oct $14s are a super-reasonable $1.20 and you can sell $17s for .45 and that's .75 for the $3 spread that's .40 in the money, so great upside coverage to $3, which is up 300% on a $2.50 move in TZA which is less than 20% so a 6% RUT drop will make you 300%.  So, if you are going to lose $30,000 on a 6% drop, you can cover $15,000 with 50 of the spreads ($3,750) and leave it at that or sell an offset that you REALLY want to own if it gets cheaper, like our trades above.
  • Morning Alert, 9/2:  If, however, you buy just $2,500 worth of the of the TZA Oct $13/16 bull call spread at $1 (25 contracts), they will pay you back $7,500 if TZA goes up about 15% (just a 5% move up in the RUT) AND they don't lose all their money until TZA is down 10% (a 3% move up in the RUT) whereas a 3% move up in the RUT against your $15,000 worth of contracts would cost you $1,500 on $15,000 worth of TZA and a 5% move up in the RUT would cost you 15% or $2,200. 

It's too early to say that they are working but, as you can see from the notes, spreads like these can make excellent hedges to a bullish portfolio.  Acutally, that's not true – they are already working because, by having them, we don't have to panic out of our long position just because the market has a small dip.  In fact, we have a Buy List (Members Only) ready to trigger – using profits we might make on our short positions.   

We commit a relatively small amount of capital to some leveraged positions that give us big pay-offs on small drops in our indexes.  In our own Short-Term Portfolio, we are using DXD, GMCR, XLE, XRT, SQQQ, BIDU, FAS and TSLA as short postions to protect the profits we've made in our Long-Term Portfolio.  

Having BALANCE in our portfolios is what allows us to effectively make on-the-fly adjustments using our Futures trading.  $500 here and $1,000 there can really take the sting out of a market move that goes against you!  That's why we concentrate on teaching balanced portfolio strategies to our Members – they let us ride out these little corrections in style…

We're not expecting a big correction, maybe 5% or 10% at most – but we sure are ready for it, just in case.

Have a great weekend,

- Phil

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  1. Musk: Tesla stock price is "kind of high right now" • 8:03 AM

    Carl Surran, SA News Editor

    Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA) is on watch after CEO Elon Musk told CNBC last night, "I think our stock price is kind of high right now, to be totally honest."

    Investors "sometimes get carried away" with the stock price, Musk said. "If you care about the long term, I think the stock is a good price. If you look at the short term, it is less clear."

    The CEO made similar remarks last November when the market cap was ~$15B; the valuation now is ~$36B.

    Shares -0.8% premarket.

  2. Tripadvisor boosted, Priceline cut at Evercore • 7:31 AM

    Stephen Alpher, SA News Editor

    Citing competitive concerns thanks to Google, Evercore pulls its Overweight rating on Priceline (NASDAQ:PCLN), and lowers the price target to $1,350 from $1,450.

    The team pulls its Underweight rating on Tripadvisor (NASDAQ:TRIP), upgrading to Equal-weight and lifting the price target to $110 from $85.

    PCLN -0.9% premarket

    Read comments

  3. Oil Lines

    R3 – 96.35
    R2 – 95.87
    R1 – 95.12
    PP – 94.64
    S1 – 93.89
    S2 – 93.41
    S3 – 92.66

  4. I guess bad news is good news… Jobs below expectations so the indices move up!

  5. Phil,

    I have a question that does not involve the BTU Butterfly, but feel free to comment on that if you're so inclined… 

    I hold  IRBT 3 Dec $30/$40 and 2 Dec $35/$45 BCS and (3) $35 short puts.  Obviously, the trades are not exactly on track.  The short calls are more than 90% there but the long calls are loosing at a greater pace so I would like to know whether sit tight until closer to expiration to see how the stock responds in the expectation of a late-fall rally or to make adjustments.  Clearly, I don't want to be put the stock at $35 if its trading lower.  Thanks in advance for your sage advice.

  6. /CL Phil- the last couple of days that $95 short entry has been a terrific play,  I shorted at around 6am and waited for the ride down to end at 7:40 or so at $94.40, I then watched it go back up a little and then continue down to under $94.30 and with a nice profit under my belt I took a shot at riding it back up which also paid off as it popped quickly up to $94.65. You had to be quick on that one though because it went up and down quite quickly. So, today I got lucky because it behaved as we would expect, but I have found that often it doesn't so you really have to sit and watch and ignore small moves in the wrong direction while waiting for the big ones in the right direction. However you do have to have a plan and quickly adjust if the price moves too far off of that plan. Knowing when a small move in the wrong direction is becoming a big move in that wrong direction is key and accepting a small loss to avoid a big loss can be the best strategy, if you know that you can try again and get it back as soon as it lines back up to reload at price you can play with conviction. Thanks for helping me to learn this Phil. I am truly enjoying the challenge of playing futures and am starting to get it right more often than wrong I think. 

  7. Good morning!  

    As expected, bad news (just 142,000 jobs) is good news and we popped back to about even in the Futures.   Other adjustments have Unemployment still at 6.2%, so the exodus from the labor force continues.

    • August Nonfarm Payrolls: +142K vs. consensus +225K, +212K previous (revised from 209K).
    • Unemployment rate: 6.2% vs. 6.1% consensus, 6.2% previous.

    All good for us as this is why we took the short Futures money and ran yesterday.  We wanted a pop so we can get back in and now we may see 17,100, 2,000, 4,100 and 1,170 again for new shorting entries (because nothing has actually changed).  Fridays are tricky – so please be careful. 

    Draghi/StJ – That's a lot of money!  

    Musk/Jabob – Well last November he bottomed TSLA at $116 after those comments (down from $194 in Oct), so hopefully a similar effect here (back to the 200 dma, now $208).  

    IRBT/Sibe – You want to preserve the $3.70 you have left in the Dec $30s so it's worth rollin those to the March $30s, now $4.70 so $1 buys you 4 more months to make gains.  The Dec $35s are $1.65 so + $3.05 to roll those, but also worth it as they go $2.25 in the money plus the time.  The Dec $35 puts are $5.20 but IRBT is at $32.25 so they are only worth $2.75 so I sure wouldn't pay that premium at the moment, you can always roll them and time is on your side.  The March $33 puts are $5.40, so keep an eye on the relationship to see if you begin to get in trouble but, hopefully, you'll be able to roll to the March $30 puts (now $3.35) once that premium burns off on the Dec puts.  

    Nice going Craigs – it sounds like you are making good observations and good adjustments.  Experience is really the best teacher.

    Good chart, StJ. 

  8. From Bloomberg, Sep 5, 2014, 8:33:27 AM

    Sept. 5 (Bloomberg) — Abby Joseph Cohen, investment strategist at Goldman Sachs Group Inc., talks about the U.S. economy, financial markets and investment strategy.
    She speaks with Tom Keene on Bloomberg Television’s “Surveillance.” (Source: Bloomberg)

    U.S. stock-index futures pared
    declines after data showing employers added the fewest jobs this
    year in August fueled speculation the Federal Reserve won’t have
    to raise rates sooner than anticipated.

    To read the entire article, go to

    Sent from the Bloomberg iPad application. Download the free application at

  9. From Bloomberg, Sep 4, 2014, 10:54:18 PM

    Petro Poroshenko, Ukraine’s president, left, speaks with David Cameron, U.K. prime minister, during the NATO summit in Newport, U.K., on Sept. 4, 2014. Photographer: Chris Ratcliffe/Bloomberg

    (Corrects dateline to read Sept. 5)

    To read the entire article, go to

    Sent from the Bloomberg iPad application. Download the free application at

  10. From Bloomberg, Sep 5, 2014, 5:47:12 AM

    Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen has cautioned against a premature increase, saying the labor market remains too slack to absorb higher borrowing costs. Photographer: Andrew Harrer/Bloomberg

    Janet Yellen will be getting a
    little more help from her friends next year — or at least her
    allies at the Federal Reserve.

    To read the entire article, go to

    Sent from the Bloomberg iPad application. Download the free application at

  11. From Bloomberg, Sep 5, 2014, 4:35:31 AM

    Sept. 4 (Bloomberg) –- Pavel Molchanov, an oil and gas analyst at Raymond James, and Bloomberg’s Alix Steel discuss a federal judge’s long-awaited ruling that may force BP to pay billions of dollars more for the 2010 Gulf of Mexico disaster. They speak with Pimm Fox on “Taking Stock.” (Source: Bloomberg)

    A U.S. judge’s watershed ruling means the final cost to BP Plc for the 2010 Gulf oil spill may eclipse $50 billion, wiping out years of profits and highlighting the risks of drilling as the industry pushes into more dangerous areas such as deeper waters and ice-bound Arctic fields.

    To read the entire article, go to

    Sent from the Bloomberg iPad application. Download the free application at

  12. From Bloomberg, Sep 5, 2014, 12:00:01 AM

    A still from the documentary film “The Price We Pay” by director Harold Crooks. Source: Supplied by Touchwood PR

    While the practice of corporate
    “inversion” may be generating headlines in the business world,
    a new documentary argues the larger issue of tax avoidance has
    become a major subversion of the global order.

    To read the entire article, go to

    Sent from the Bloomberg iPad application. Download the free application at

  13. From Bloomberg, Sep 5, 2014, 7:17:43 AM

    U.K. parents are being squeezed out
    of private education as fees rise.

    To read the entire article, go to

    Sent from the Bloomberg iPad application. Download the free application at

  14. From Bloomberg, Sep 5, 2014, 4:13:13 AM

    Gaming workers protest in front of Starworld casino, operated by Galaxy Entertainment Group Ltd., in Macau, China. Photographer: Brent Lewin/Bloomberg

    Macau casino analysts are a persistent bunch.

    To read the entire article, go to

    Sent from the Bloomberg iPad application. Download the free application at

  15. From Bloomberg, Sep 5, 2014, 8:41:47 AM

    Employers that boosted headcounts in the first half of the year may be more restrained in their hiring as they await even faster economic growth. Photographer: John Moore/Getty Images

    Employers added the fewest number of jobs this year in August, representing a pause in the recent momentum of the U.S. labor market as companies assess the prospects for demand.

    To read the entire article, go to

    Sent from the Bloomberg iPad application. Download the free application at

  16. From Bloomberg, Sep 5, 2014, 6:48:20 AM

    To appreciate the challenge Mario Draghi faces reviving Europe’s ailing economy by buying asset-backed securities, listen to Frank Erik Meijer.

    To read the entire article, go to

    Sent from the Bloomberg iPad application. Download the free application at

  17. From Bloomberg, Sep 5, 2014, 7:21:29 AM

    Having led the currency bloc out of its longest-ever recession, Germany’s economy shrank 0.2 percent last quarter in its first contraction since the start of 2013, today’s data confirmed. Photographer: Martin Leissl/Bloomberg

    Euro-area investment fell in the second quarter for the first time in more than a year, reflecting the gloomy outlook presented by Mario Draghi yesterday as he unveiled new European Central Bank stimulus.

    To read the entire article, go to

    Sent from the Bloomberg iPad application. Download the free application at

  18. From Bloomberg, Sep 5, 2014, 12:01:00 AM

    Sept. 3 (Bloomberg) — The Federal Reserve approved requirements on U.S. bank liquidity levels and proposed collateral rules for swaps at a meeting of the Board of Governors in Washington today. (Video courtesy of the Federal Reserve. Source: Bloomberg)

    U.S. banks would need $644 billion
    in collateral to offset risks in swaps traded among themselves,
    according to an analysis of rules re-proposed by regulators.

    To read the entire article, go to

    Sent from the Bloomberg iPad application. Download the free application at

  19. Watch this video at

    What QE Can Do for Europe Is Crush the Euro: Do

    Sept. 5 (Bloomberg) –- Baring Asset Management Head of Multi-Asset Strategy Khiem Do discusses the ECB unexpectedly cutting all three benchmark rates, why he thinks Mario Draghi needs to do more and what the cuts mean for equity markets in Asia with Bloomberg’s David Ingles, Zeb Eckert, Angie Lau and Rishaad Salamat on “Asia Edge.” (Source: Bloomberg)

    Sent from the Bloomberg iPad application. Download the free application at

  20. Watch this video at

    Samsung’s New TV Isn’t Just Curved, It’s Bendable

    Sept. 5 (Bloomberg) –- Samsung is about to start selling a ‘bendable’ TV, a step up from its curved range it only launched last year. So how does it work and why do we need to bend our screens? (Source: Bloomberg)

    Sent from the Bloomberg iPad application. Download the free application at

  21. Watch this video at

    The High-Tech Fridge That Takes Selfies

    Sept. 5 (Bloomberg) –- Your home appliances may one day talk to each other but first they have to find a common language. And then you may need to worry that they will broadcast your dirty laundry. Bloomberg’s Hans Nichols reports. (Source: Bloomberg)

    Sent from the Bloomberg iPad application. Download the free application at

  22. Chart of the day – it's not even the top 10%:

    We are all getting screwed except for the very, very rich!

  23. From Bloomberg, Sep 5, 2014, 8:30:00 AM

    Canadian employment unexpectedly fell in August including a record drop in private-sector jobs, undermining policy makers’ optimism about an economic recovery.

    To read the entire article, go to

    Sent from the Bloomberg iPad application. Download the free application at

  24. From Bloomberg, Sep 4, 2014, 8:18:06 PM

    The off shore oil rig Deepwater Horizon burns in the Gulf of Mexico on April 21, 2010. Photographer: Jon T. Fritz/MCT via Getty Images

    BP Plc acted with gross negligence in setting off the biggest offshore oil spill in U.S. history, a federal judge ruled, handing down a long-awaited decision that may force the energy company to pay billions of dollars more for the 2010 Gulf of Mexico disaster.

    To read the entire article, go to

    Sent from the Bloomberg iPad application. Download the free application at

  25. From Bloomberg, Sep 4, 2014, 10:04:28 PM

    The BP Deepwater Horizon oil spill in the Gulf of Mexico on July 28, 2010. Around the location of the oil leak, and around the Mississippi Delta, relatively light swirls and patches appear on the ocean surface. Photograph: MODIS/NASA via Bloomberg

    Now that a federal judge has ruled that BP acted in “gross negligence” in 2010, when the Deepwater Horizon exploded in the Gulf of Mexico and killed 11 people, it’s a good time to ask: How bad were the environmental damages?

    To read the entire article, go to

    Sent from the Bloomberg iPad application. Download the free application at

  26. From Bloomberg, Sep 5, 2014, 12:00:00 AM

    Edinburgh Castle. Photographer: Burak Ali Dogu/Getty Images

    For the banks, insurers and fund managers that thrived and survived in Edinburgh through war and recession for two centuries, a whole new challenge is looming.

    To read the entire article, go to

    Sent from the Bloomberg iPad application. Download the free application at

  27. Watch this video at

    Is David Tepper Right That the Bond Rally Is Ending?

    Sept. 4 (Bloomberg) — Bloomberg’s Michael McKee examines the statement by David Tepper, founder of Appaloosa Management, that today’s rate cut by the European Central Bank is the beginning of the end of the U.S. bond market rally. He speaks on “Market Makers.”

    Sent from the Bloomberg iPad application. Download the free application at

  28. Watch this video at

    Fed: Median Incomes Fell for All But Richest in 2010-2013

    Sept. 4: Only the rich saw their incomes benefit from the economic recovery during 2010-2013, as earnings stagnated or fell for all others, a report from the Federal Reserve showed today.

    Sent from the Bloomberg iPad application. Download the free application at

  29. From Bloomberg, Sep 5, 2014, 8:45:41 AM

    Family Dollar Stores Inc. (FDO) spurned a sweetened $9.1 billion bid from Dollar General Corp., saying it would be harder to get past antitrust regulators than a lower offer from Dollar Tree Inc. (DLTR)

    To read the entire article, go to

    Sent from the Bloomberg iPad application. Download the free application at

  30. From Bloomberg, Sep 5, 2014, 8:44:43 AM

    The dollar fell after a government
    report showed employers added the fewest jobs this year in
    August, damping bets the Federal Reserve will raise interest
    sooner than anticipated.

    To read the entire article, go to

    Sent from the Bloomberg iPad application. Download the free application at

  31. From Bloomberg, Sep 5, 2014, 1:02:09 AM

    Barclays Plc (BARC), Bank of America Corp.,
    Citigroup Inc. (C) and 10 other banks were accused in a lawsuit of
    conspiring to manipulate ISDAfix, a benchmark used to set rates
    for interest rate derivatives and other financial instruments.

    To read the entire article, go to

    Sent from the Bloomberg iPad application. Download the free application at

  32. From Bloomberg, Sep 4, 2014, 7:01:00 PM

    A researcher makes a writing test on a touch-screen product made from the 15-inch single-layer graphene in the Chongqing Institute of Green and Intelligent Technology, Chinese Academy of Sciences, in southwest China’s Chongqing, on Jan. 24, 2013. Photographer: Liu Chan/Xinhua/Zuma Press

    In a laboratory at the University of
    , a team led by Kostas Kostarelos is studying the
    safety of graphene, a carbon film one atom thick.

    To read the entire article, go to

    Sent from the Bloomberg iPad application. Download the free application at

  33. From Bloomberg, Sep 4, 2014, 4:00:00 PM

    Asian nations aren’t getting the
    bounce that a U.S. manufacturing recovery used to bring,
    reflecting a weakening link between demand in the world’s
    largest economy and regional exporters, said Deutsche Bank AG.

    To read the entire article, go to

    Sent from the Bloomberg iPad application. Download the free application at

  34. Good Morning!

  35. From Bloomberg, Sep 5, 2014, 9:00:25 AM

    A little sunshine, please.                                                      

    Olivier Blanchard, the International Monetary Fund’s chief economist and a leading inventor of modern macroeconomic theory, is known as one of the field’s gentler critics. In 2008 he wrote a famously ill-timed paper declaring that “The state of macro is good.” The biggest financial crisis since the Great Depression followed soon after. In that paper, Blanchard presented New Keynesian models — which he had a big hand in developing — as the dominant approach; at the same time, two prominent macroeconomists at the Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis were releasing a paper declaring those models “not yet useful for policy analysis!”

    To read the entire article, go to

    Sent from the Bloomberg iPad application. Download the free application at

  36. From Bloomberg, Sep 5, 2014, 8:03:50 AM

    Is it Friday already? Wherever does the time go? Here are my morning reads to help you through your commute:

    To read the entire article, go to

    Sent from the Bloomberg iPad application. Download the free application at

  37. From Bloomberg, Sep 4, 2014, 6:49:34 PM

    Incumbent Republican Senator Pat Roberts may rue giving up his Kansas home.

    Could Kansas, the most reliably Republican state, elect a Democratic governor and unseat an incumbent Republican senator in what is expected to be a Republican year?

    To read the entire article, go to

    Sent from the Bloomberg iPad application. Download the free application at

  38. Taser International (TASR) has gained 7.4% to $18.84 after New York City said it would start testing cameras on its police officers.

  39. From Bloomberg:

    “… as weaker-than-estimated jobs growth fueled speculation the Federal Reserve won’t have to raise rates sooner than anticipated.

    Employers added the fewest jobs this year in August, representing a pause in the recent momentum of the U.S. labor market …”

    Translation: We will continue to reward with you cheap/free money if you just stop hiring!

  40. From Bloomberg, Sep 4, 2014, 4:15:34 PM

    Bloggers got their own lounge at the 2008 Democratic National Convention in Denver.

    Is political science needed now more than ever?

    To read the entire article, go to

    Sent from the Bloomberg iPad application. Download the free application at

  41. Pharm – A New High….BuyBuyBuy!…..;)

  42. Pharm – Time to post some doom and gloom charts.  Maybe someone can post a JRW chart with made up dotted lines, all going down…. 

  43. Phil Yellen

    Just 2 days ago I relinquished that Yellen was smart and I was off because of wanting QE stopped and reversed, still do. Now she seems to really get my points, bank liquidity and swaps requirements. The private bond formation must also be curtailed. Subprime car loans!

  44. GILD – doing that biotech thing..

  45. IRBT up another 1.2% today! I wish that they had longer options than March 15!

  46. Nasdaq – the one green index.

  47. jabobeast – Obviously Elon bought some puts yesterday for a little walking around money.

  48. Screwed/StJ – This is what I keep telling "rich" people (especially our friends in the GOP) – these people aren't looking out for your interest unless you are at the very top.  I'm glad people are finally breaking these charts down to show what's really going on in this country.  

    TASR/DC – On the march!  

    Submitted on 2014/09/04 at 1:44 pm

    I do like the fact that you can get $2.30 for selling the TASR 2016 $15 puts and you can use that money to buy the $15/22 bull call spread for $3 for net 0.70 on the $7 spread that's $2.80 in the money (+300%) to start.  It's a 10-bagger if it works out!  

    TASR/Sn0 – We're not even halfway through the decade, sure there's still time for our Stock of the Decade!  It's a bit high for us at the moment but, from a long-term perspective, we should still get a nice double from here over the next few years at least.   So, if I wanted to buy $18,000 worth of TASR (1,000 shares), I'd start by selling 5 of the 2016 $15 puts for $2.10 and use that money to buy the $15/22 bull call spread at $3 for net 0.90 on the $7 spread so your upside is $3,500 on the spreads (20% of $18K) but you are only committing to owning 500 at net $15.90 if it falls (and you can roll the short puts, of course) and cash and margin on this trade is only about $2,500, so a very efficient trade.  

    Submitted on 2014/08/26 at 7:36 am

    TASR/Yodi – No, TASR is my stock of the decade and here we are 40% of the way through it and the need for more non-lethal weapons and cameras to record interactions is already becoming obvious.  My premise back in 2010, when I picked it, was that we would have more civil unrest as the wealth gap increases and that laws (and lawsuits) would begin to change to make it a smart decision for police forces to train their officers to go for the Tasers first, guns last.  

    Again, it's a long-term play but I'm very confident it will be a $50 stock by 2020, more than a 10-bagger from our initial entry and good for a triple from here ($16).  

    Submitted on 2014/08/25 at 11:32 am

    DGLY/Rev – While interesting, they are small and risky and make no money while TASR is big and profitable in the same space.  I agree there could be room for both and, had you asked at $3 two weeks ago, I would have said they sound great but, at $11.32 today with no options, I would MUCH rather take the same $11,320 you could put into 1,000 shares of DGLY and sell 8 TASR 2016 $13 puts for $1.75 ($1,400) and buy 20 2016 $15/20 bull call spreads at $2 ($4,000) for net $2,600 which makes $7,400 if TASR moves up just 25% with the downside of owning 800 shares at net $16.25 (the current price) or $13,000.  And, of course, you can roll the short puts to improve that.  With DGLY, you need a 70% move up to get to $7,400 and the real question is – which would you rather hold on to if they drop 50%?  

    Submitted on 2014/08/22 at 10:01 am

    TASR/Criags – I think they have a really good run ahead thanks to Ferguson.  

    Submitted on 2014/08/14 at 2:11 pm

    • TASR – Let's sell 10 more of the 2016 $15 puts for $4.60.  Net $11.40 for TASR???  OK!!!  

    That's because it's our STOCK OF THE DECADE!!!  

  49. In the Cramer is a f**ing idiot section, yesterday afternoon he called TSLA his best wide receiver stock and pumped it like crazy.  This morning he said Elon Musk knows nothing about stock price and that it's still going higher.  His buddies must be trying to get out of some quickly.

  50. The stock houses are selling the dip or trying to sell to the suckers. Amazing this volume isn't driving more sell off but they took the dollar down and TLT is lower than the open. Conclusion is smart money is going all cash.

  51. Headlines/Diamond – Why doesn't anyone in the MSM ever write "Weaker Than Estimated Jobs Growth Shows – FED POLICIES ARE NOT WORKING!"???  Holy cow – they've been watering this plant for 5 years and it's still not growing – maybe time to try sunlight instead?  Dead on with the translation – this is a really sick feedback loop we have going.  

    Yellen/Shadow – The jury is still out on her.  Is she another stooge for the Banksters or does she have a conscience?  We'll see next year, when she gets a real chance to push her own agenda.  

    IRBT/StJ – I think I have just as many links in the last month telling people to buy that one too!  

    Yet, only when it's back over $40 will people start asking for trade ideas…  angry

    Advisor sentiment/Shadow – I will tell you from experience, if you are not bullish on the market, you lose subscribers.  I see it in PSW numbers too, it costs me a lot of money to tell people to be careful!  There's a niche for perma-bear newsletters but, if you have a mixed audience and get more bullish – people respond well but, if you have a mixed audience and lean bearish – you lose bullish subscribers very quickly because they don't want to hear "the negativity."  That's why you see 87% of the newsletters on the bull side – the more we measure and get feedback metrics, the more being bullish seems like the best editorial policy.  


    Cramer/Rustle – I can't believe no one arrests that guy.  

    Nice dip today on TSLA but $277 still WAY too high.  Gigafactory scheduled for 2017 so 3 more years of BS ahead.  CNBC now playing clip of Musk saying the stock is too high.

    Dollar – Good point Shadow, 83.70 this morning but still looking strong, just a rejection at 84 so far and pulling back for another run.   Euro sad at $129.6, Pound $1.63 and 104.80 Yen to the Dollar but the Nikkie still fell all the way to 15,580 in the Futures from 15,800 at the open, that's off 1.5% in 12 hours.

  52. IWM is at very weak support with heavy put buying, the real issue is can they hold 115.

  53. Phil – Would you mind posting the lines you are now (10.30) looking at for shorts?

  54. Phil/TASR

    good morning!

    the 2016 $15 puts are going for 2.25 on fidelity, and not $4.60.

    am I missing something?

    wrong broker?

  55. Phil

    This is not the shadow letter but I could stop my warnings if I am scaring people, actually that is what I'm trying to do. I am not a classic technical person and what I have is very short term like my voicing is limited to today.

    Yellen, all I am saying is I think she is smarter than most at the Fed but that doesn't mean she is going against the banksters, With the ECB action they are under more pressure to ease or loose the dollar run to the bottom. Dollar up is good for me personally.

  56. Maya 1    It was an august play

  57. Lines/Burr – I'm not too keen on shorting on a Friday but we've got 17,000, 1,990, 4,050 and 1,160 and, if those start failing – could be a very nice dip below but you could just as well play them long if we bounce.  Just watch which way 3 of them go and grab the laggard in either direction.  

    Based on the last two day's action, I'd say money is moving here from Europe so watch 11:30 for the end of support but, each day but Friday on this chart – 10:30 was a good time for shorting.  It's the FRIDAY that's bothering me, though – that's why I think long might be "right" even though it's not Fundamentally supported:

    TASR/Maya – That's because that was a quote from action we took in the Income Portfolio almost a month ago (hence the date above that line).  As I am currently saying about IRBT, people only want to know about these ideas AFTER they pop.  While I'm calling them, you look at the chart and say "He's crazy, it looks like a classic head and shoulders pattern to me."  

    IRBT March $30 puts can be sold for $3.10 and that money can be used to buy the $30/36 bull call spread for $2.70 for a net .40 credit on the $6 spread that's $2.63 (750%) in the money to start.  In fact, let's go for 10 of those in the LTP.

  58. Phil any thoughts on GILD?

  59. Phil, Who makes the robotic big assembly and welding machines? That could be the next great mover as we fire the rest of manufacturing workers.  

  60. From Gann360…there you go Burr….I do think this market blows chuncks, but for now 'Everything is Awesome'. :)

  61. Bearish/Shadow – I'm not saying your bearishness is a problem, I'm just pointing out to all how this business works.  People forget that the people they go to for advice, whether paid or through advertising, are running a business and those people then tend to want to maximize their profits more so than they want to give unbiased reporting.  Look at how drastically Barry's tone changed now that he sold out to Bloomberg.  

    Also, remember how Forbes tried to force me to change my tone during our brief relationship?  I had to walk away from a prestigious national spotlight to keep my integrity.  If I were younger and poorer – I'm not even sure I would have made the same decision.  That's why so many people sell out and, the worse the economy is for the bottom 99%, the more of them the top 1% can get to toe the line.  

    GILD/Abseth – I'll like them if they pull back a bit.  

    Submitted on 2014/09/03 at 4:31 am

    GILD/Scott – Essentially, you are paying a small premium on the current position rather than waiting to get called away, right?  The Jan $95s are $18.20 so $113.20 with the stock at $109.36 means you are paying $4.16 to get out of a winning position, which is 4% for 4 months or an annualized 12% to get out of a clear winner that has virtually no chance of failing.  Do you really think this is generally a good practice?  

    As to a NEW trade on GILD, it's a bit high in the channel but you are willing to own it at $77, so it would seem selling the 2016 $90 puts for $9 (net $81) is a no-brainer and then you can buy the $80/110 bull call spread for $17 and that puts you back at net $8 and you make all the upside from $88 to $110 and the worst case is you own the stock again at net $88.  Of course, if you don't jump the gun on the old trade – that's another $4 in your pocket so really net $84 – a 5% bonus already!  

    Also, no change since last time you asked me:

    GILD/Abseth – Those two aren't exactly a pair trade, are they?  Big summary of GILD the other daybut that one is not one I would chase at this point.  As to USO, could go up or down $5 on oil very easily from this spot – I'm not inclined to bet without more data.  We have an inventory report tomorrow and I think it's more likely it sends us lower than higher but then this is a holiday weekend and there are Billions on the line in favor of keeping prices up into the weekend – not a good environment to make bets in. 

    Industrial Robots/Shadow – That's a pretty mature industry.  Cool map of the players here (and a good site for all things robotic).  

  62. Oil touches 95 and walks off a cliff.  Ty.

  63. LOL Burr, sounds like the first line of a joke…

  64. ESV/Phil – any opinion on these guys? nice dividend and down at lows..

  65. Thanks Phil.

  66. Touche!,

  67. LGF     nice big put sale of the Jan'15 $30's


    Interesting viewpoint but one must add this is a cherry picking environment and advertising openings makes impressive headlines and the offers are being turned down, jobs unfilled make little difference especially when the consumer is tapped out. 

  69. Short-Term Portfolio Update (STP):  Back to $135,000 (up 35% for the year), that's a good sign as we were down to $125,000 earlier in the week so we gain $10K on a little dip means we're doing our job protecting the LTP.  You never really know if your mix is right until it's tested under pressure.  

    • CAKE – Well, I hate naked long calls but we bought back the short calls from this spread and this is what we're left with.  I'm not sure we'll get the pop we need if the indexes are dragging us down but there's also no particular reason to pull this trade so let's see what happens next week.  Our premise here is lower food costs = more profits. 
    • DXD – One of our anchor hedges, just out of the money at $24.54 with 42 days left.
    • GMCR – My white whale at this point.  Earnings not until mid-November.  
    • XLE – Persistently low oil prices will gradually break XLE down, 42 days left. 
    • XRT – We bought back the short puts here when it spiked up, I'm happy with these puts, hopefully we get $8+ as XRT heads back to $85.
    • CI, CMG, FB, NTAP – These are all put plays I like and believe in but this is the STP, not the LTP, so let's take them off the table as their purpose was to fund some bear spreads and, since they are all up over 60% with over a year to go – let's make room for fresh horses.  
    • RIG – Those we still have faith in and, like any short put in the STP, we REALLY want to own them at that net ($30.10) and, if so, we'll just transfer them to the LTP.  That's how short sales work in the STP – if they go well, we have profits that fund our hedges and, if they go badly – we have a new long-term position for the LTP!  
    • YHOO – Still liking the premise that they go way higher on the AliBaba IPO.  
    • XRT – Oops, forgot we have two of these.  I like them both but more inclined to take Sept puts off the table sooner than later since we have this one for Oct.  
    • SQQQ – Another anchor hedge, now $1.15 in the money!  
    • ARO – Why is this in the STP and not the LTP?  I forgot.  Still making good money, can't complain.  
    • BIDU – On target
    • FAS – Back on track, $3,000 improvement since yesterday. 
    • SLW – Another long-term play I'm not sure why it's in the STP.  
    • TSLA – Thank you Elon, down $12 today!  That's where our big swing came from this week.  

    Not a bad set of picks – I pretty much like them all and now we can sell more puts on the dips, so I'm very happy going into the weekend.  

  70. Here's 11:30, let's see what happens with our Futures at:  17,045, 1,995, 4,058 and 1,162.50.  See, I told you up seemed right before.  Now I don't mind playing the Dow short below 17,050 and /ES short below 1,995.  RUT is too crazy to play today, as is /NQ.  

  71. ESV/Scott – I don't play them because I don't know them as well as RIG or BHI or SLB but they're a perfectly good company simply being punished in the down side of the cycle.  

    I don't think I'd try to catch a knife here (especially as RIG is already twisting in our gut) but it is certainly interesting around $45 and will be irresistible at $40 so I'd keep an eye on something like selling the 2016 $45 puts ($5.60) and buying the $40/50 bull call spread for $5.30 for net 0.30 on the $10 spread that's currently $6.50 in the money.  

    Let's say, best case, you can pull it for a $2 credit (or are able to sell the $40 puts with the $35/45 spread for a credit as it moves lower) and worst case you pay $1 if it turns up, but then you'd be $7.50 in the money and paying $1 and you'd know there's a floor – so why not?  

    You're welcome (again), Abseth.  wink

    LGF/Stock – I certainly don't see them below $30. 

    Jobs/Shadow – Also, as I know this from my brother, who has a recruitment service, companies aren't using efficient employment services because they don't want to pay fees, so they are burdening their own depleted HR people with the hiring process – that's slowing everything down as well. 

  72. Maya/TASR,  Phils comments were from an earlier post when they were cheaper. Your prices are correct now.

  73. Oil still falling – almost $93 now. 

    No luck on shorting /YM (17,060) or /ES (1,996) but that's OK as we are happy to wait for them to cross higher levels for a better short entry.  Still, our 11:30 premise is shot and now we have to worry about last Friday's bullish pattern being repeated. 

  74. Maya,  I see Phil answered that now-I'm behind the in the posts now for the past 2 weeks or so.

  75. ES LAST 1997.25 TO DEC


  77. For the GOP climate side.

    Last night it unexpectedly dropped to 32 in this little area. I didn't prepare and 90% of the potatoes died, not a bad thing tubers are big, but seems most if not all my best bean crop ever is done, picked 2 gallons. Spinach and the ending lettuce like nothing happened.

    For the other side. 10AM here, 52 degrees up 20!

  78. Obama live on ISIS networks.

  79. /CL worth long at 93?  It has been fluctuating between 93 and 95 for more than a week

  80. Am I the only one that read about the 11 planes that disappeared out of Libya? On Yahoo news. Obviously something is brewing if this is true. I am going into heavy shorting into the weekend-anyone remember the horrific aftershock of 9/11? I have said this b4 BUT all they have to do is hit the biggest electrical transmission plants in the US & basically EVERYTHING shuts down. I was up at our place in Canada when the lines failed 10 years ago? & it was very eye opening.  Grocery store emptied in 2 hrs & no way to pump gas to even back over the border. I had no idea that all those lines in North America were connected!

  81. china manipulates data to make it look better than it really is…we manipulate to make it look worse to give fed doves cover….

  82. Pirate – news about the "missing" Libyan planes was out a couple of days ago. Minimal risk to North America – too easy to track and intercept. Electrical transmission lines can be compromised in the U.S. with much less effort than flying planes into towers or plants. Yes, the transmission lines are all interconnected, but information flow and control (ability to isolate problems) is improving with time – although too slowly.

  83. 9/11 was a cia plot planned by the bush's to profit from war in the middle east and oil.  The planes were all remote controlled, and a missile hit the pentagon, not a plane.



    …that should stir some weekend discussions…

  84. Agree Eric.   Pure tabloid material.  The Daily Mail et. al. are all over it — but Al Jazeera doesn't even mention it.  Burrben?  Oh puh-leese!!!

  85. Of course, Islamic State is in fact planning to unleash mutant spiders on the British population, as also suggested by the Daily Mail:

  86. America loves war and control. Obama says he has most other countries behind him to destroy ISIS and Phil's 11:30 sell off turns rebound

  87. Zero – Come on man!  The plane that crashed was shot down by either a air to ground missile or a ufo.  All the facts are right here.

    Bin laden was a US operative since we have close ties to the Bin Landen group




  88. There's 2,000 on /ES, certainly can't short anything over that line.  /NQ 4,075, /YM 17,100 and /TF lagging at 1,167.50 now.  Oil finally found a floor at $93 but weak bounce to $93.25 so far ($2 drop means 0.40 (weak) and 0.80 (strong) bounces expected).

    Climate/Shadow – That sucks.  Now I know why I don't garden.  

    Obama with a good plan if he can get the Arab states into his coalition after ISIS.  

    Oil/Ricbah – Good instincts, yes, that's the kind of place where it's worth a gamble.  

    Libya/Pirate – Not sure if it's real or not, markets seem very complacent:

    Reports that 11 commercial jetliners are missing from the main airport in Libya's capital of Tripoli are raising fears that militants could use them in terrorist attacks to mark the 13th anniversary of 9/11 next week.

    The Washington Free Beacon, a conservative news website, cited anonymous sources who said intelligence agencies have warned the jets could be used in attacks in North Africa and elsewhere on Sept. 11.

    The date also marks the second anniversary of the Libyan terrorist attack on the U.S. diplomatic compound in Benghazi that killed four Americans, including Ambassador Christopher Stevens.

    State Department spokeswoman Marie Harf said, "We have nothing to confirm these reports about missing airliners."

    Could be just fear-mongering.  

    Electric/Pirate – Good point but no one wants to spend the infrastructure money needed to improve the grid – it is an accident (or terror attack) waiting to happen.

    I'll pass on that one Burr…  

  89. I understand there is a way to get under the radar, or  alternately just land them in and disperse the  terrorists to wherever the job is. I know that we are supposedly covered, BUT the threats leading up to 9/11 were very evident in the "chatter" that was being picked up  by NSA, CIA etc and it still happened though this info was in the hands of our government. If you have faith in the "intelligence" of our government to handle, or intercept the people who are out to destroy us, I admire you  for I have none. I found when enemies send a threat, especially the Islamists, they follow through. After the UN was bombed, with little damage, they said they would be back & they were patient & waited for the right time.

  90. Burrben:  My father was a career GS-17 CIA station chief, and was in his loft 5 blocks from the WTCs when they went down.  He would undoubtedly have been called on an errand as a professional courtesy.

  91. pirate:  The fog of war — the U.S. intelligence community didn't get it right, obviously.  But they didn't do it, either.

  92. Phil

    There is the brilliance in my idea fix highways, clean electric vehicles, and I more secure power grid. And I will add that stopping cyber on the grid is so simple I would be called a terrorist. My hint is disconnection of commands. OH NO! We must be scared to death.

  93. How can an a  turn to cap I?

  94. Hilarious Apple spoof by Ikea. Don’t drink while you watch this! ;-)

  95. Hmmm, the anniversary is coming up-lucky 13 years?  Patiently waiting,  like us for a correction that never comes, in this teflon market where all the bad news just slides right off. 

  96. The law I have just signed was passed to put people back to work, to let them buy more of the products of farms and factories and start our business at a living rate again. This task is in two stages; first, to get many hundreds of thousands of the unemployed back on the payroll by snowfall and, second, to plan for a better future for the longer pull. While we shall not neglect the second, the first stage is an emergency job. It has the right of way.

    The second part of the Act gives employment through a vast program of public works. Our studies show that we should be able to hire many men at once and to step up to about a million new jobs by October 1st, and a much greater number later. We must put at the head of our list those works which are fully ready to start now. Our first purpose is to create employment as fast as we can, but we should not pour money into unproved projects.

    We have worked out our plans for action. Some of the work will start tomorrow. I am making available $400,000,000 for State roads under regulations which I have just signed, and I am told that the States will get this work under way at once. I have also just released over $200,000,000 for the Navy to start building ships under the London Treaty.

    In my Inaugural I laid down the simple proposition that nobody is going to starve in this country. It seems to me to be equally plain that no business which depends for existence on paying less than living wages to its workers has any right to continue in this country. By "business" I mean the whole of commerce as well as the whole of industry; by workers I mean all workers, the white collar class as well as the men in overalls; and by living wages I mean more than a bare subsistence level-I mean the wages of decent living.

    Throughout industry, the change from starvation wages and starvation employment to living wages and sustained employment can, in large part, be made by an industrial covenant to which all employers shall subscribe. It is greatly to their interest to do this because decent living, widely spread among our 125, 000,000 people, eventually means the opening up to industry of the richest market which the world has known. It is the only way to utilize the so-called excess capacity of our industrial plants. This is the principle that makes this one of the most important laws that ever has come from Congress because, before the passage of this Act, no such industrial covenant was possible.

  97. I am going to keep everything charged up just in case. My son bought me a solar charger-haven't used it yet-will have to break it out. The only thing that worked in Canada were the landlines on the phone when the grid imploded-some comfort!

  98. Patience/Pirate – That's our biggest vulnerability, Westerners, especially Americans, have the attention span of a toddler.  A patient enemy who makes long-range plans can always make an end-run around our cowboy reactions to threats.  

    LOL Akad.  It's sad but my kids practically need that commercial to explain what a book is. 

    There was a spike to $93.80 on oil, not sticking so far but /ES holding 2K and /YM over 17,100 so all must be well.

  99. Phil – LOL!!!

  100. Tsla-about a quarter of the stock is shorted & insiders are selling stock-it just might go down? Amazing.

  101. I have a couple more thing that should lessen the grid fears. Our biggest danger is interconnections in a strained state like a heat wave. The problem is one part overloads and that puts way to much on the next and the domino effect kicks in. Why? to disconnect the links gigantic fuses must be physically removed, so big it takes tractors. A relay is not capable of anything close so there is next BS fear that this could happen by cyber attack, computers can give instructions to crews but hopefully the crew is smart enough to not do the ridiculous command of destroy all power distribution. Computers can trade stocks but big power is not controllable. If you don't believe this go to your closest substation, take a quick look, major power centers like generation are even more dependent on even bigger fuses, not even mechanical switches. Another proof is when things go wrong there is no emergency red button to shut it down, all faith is in the fuses do their job.

    Bombs and planes could do it but think thousands of them to hit all those places at once and our air force does nothing to stop them. But we must be really afraid!

  102. Zero –  He wasn't called because the FBI stole all the footage.

    Oh, the Muslim's are controlled by the Illuminati.

  103. ~~

    Contaminated, wish I had not clicked!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

  104. Burrben – Did you know the Brooklyn Bridge is for sale ?

  105. No not afraid. just thoughtful. I guess you have to live through something like we did to feel the full impact of being trapped with no way out. Since we were on a lake, we had access to water, but being it was the cabin there was limited food & other supplies & with only 1/2 a tank of gas we couldn't of got far & it being on an island there were other constraints. Not like being home were the fruit cellar is full, the freezer is full & the garden is still producing & you just hunker down. Look up Manitoulin Island sitting in Lake Huron-beautiful place-largest fresh water island in the world.




  107. Private I was in New England a few years back, power even telephone out 5 days and that didn't hold a candle to the big blackout that caused a mini baby boom, when I don't remember,30,40 years ago?

  108. F-15's tracking a ghost plane heading towards Cuba.

  109. angelcur – Don’t make me ingest all of the evidence! :-)

  110. LGF/Stockbern:

    Jan15 30 put, 3000 contracts today.   Now thatsa lot a contracts!!

  111. wombat

    With enough fear spreading everyone has something to do. We can at least spy on our neighbors even if al power and communication goes down.

  112. JBur // LGF
    I"ve always struggled with news like this. Is there anyway that you can tell if they're short puts or long ?
    ( Not that it would matter – could be a big ass hedge for something else _)

  113. Shadow- you are talking about the NYC blackout-I lived in Rockland county so it must have been late 60's , early 70's? Yes, that was amazing & I think it lasted a couple days. We weren't affected; it was just the city & yes, everyone found something to do that dark night!

  114. private

    I was effected but not only don't remember when I can't recall where, early 70s I was sent to NYC and NJ many times and a good distance Boston. 60s I was high school, I remember JFK announcement at school and went home early.

  115. Good points on the grid, Shadow.  Maybe we shouldn't be too quick to go to smart grid.  

    Now there's something going on with a plane over Cuba.  

    Rockland/Pirate – Me too!   Big Blackout was 1965, I was just a baby.  That's when the whole Northeast went down – something up at Niagara Falls blew the whole thing up.  

    Finally getting a move under 17,100 and /ES still over 2,000 but just by a point.  4,076 and 1,165.4, so no confirmations yet.  

  116. 9/11/Burrben:  I have never been the tin wearing hat type, but in this case I might have to agree, and think I might take it one step further.   The oil profits for the Bush/Walker clan was just a payoff for doing the bidding of their overlords, the real goal was to frighten American citizens so that the Patriot Act could be put into position ( and thus revoke or diminish our constitution rights)  without complaint or argument. 

    Note what has occurred since then: the establishment of Home Land Security, TSA and a score of other new agencies with virtually unlimited power to seize, detain, encarcerate, spy on citizens, and to label anyone a "terrorist".  

    The world has changed exponentially in the last 13 years, and not for the better.

    Have you watched this movie, " 9/11 In Plane Sight" ?   Very interesting.

    Enough of the ranting, it just this stuff really bugs the hell out of me.

  117. wombat / LGF / long-short

    Well… I think for every short there must be a long… If you want to go short on a put SOMEONE has to sell it to you! ;-)

  118. Akademia – You mean someone has to buy it from you.

  119. albo – Of course you are right. How silly of me! My neurons play games like this sometimes when I’m thinking in Spanish and writing in English :-(

  120. Phil blackout 1965 makes more sense to me and I thought it was the entire northeast, I would have been 14 and then it was just fun. Trying to make early 70s fit being in NYC. 2 good memories was pizza and a Japanese restaurant with the chief throwing knives in front of us, food was the best. 

    I have doubts that a really smart grid is ever going further than instruction to do, even giant robots would have to be everywhere and the oh my god cost? This is classic GWB fear gauge BS.

  121. No problemo. :-)

  122. While some of what I posted was in jest, I do *actually* believe that the twin towers were taken down by controlled demo.  Take a look at any video, and the physics just can't explain how the towers could have fallen so fast, and so clean without demo charges in the building.  Science can't explain how debris from the top of the tower doesn't move in free fall faster than new debris from below.

    This is a good video

  123. LGF/Burr

    Looking at the Options Time and Sales on the Trade Tab, filtering for Jan15 contracts,  shows that at 8:00:17 455 contracts traded at 1.35 when the market was at 1.35-1.55,  so likely it was a sale.

    Also, one second later 1926 contracts traded at 1.35 when the market was 1.30-1.50.

    Since both traded at less than the mark, all these were likely sales.

    Just my 2c.

  124. ANAD – Up 25%+

    MSFT – New AH.

  125. Jbur // Very Smart

  126. jbur

    OK, we agree on the fear thing, and I strongly think W knew all but he is in the new world order or military machine power, had his relative in England backing him and oh the oil! Sure destroyed America, extremes swing wildly, lets hope it happens again soon.

  127. Phil / AAPL
    Bull Call Spread ? ( I have some Jan16 $80 short puts, so about 4K )
    Whats your dithers >?

  128.   Blackouts:  I live where the electricity cuts off multiple times per day.  Like right now, as a matter of fact.  I also travel quite a bit, and my lifeline, everywhere, is a cell phone.  Big screen Samsung — I can get ATT telephone internet, which is great when you need it.  But --the Samsung sucks power fast.  Solution:  Battery packs, oversized-deck-of-cards sized.  I used to carry two in my carry-on, quite sufficient, but added a third.  I've tried a few kinds, the MyCharge brand works best; they have three models, the "green" [longest-lasting] is to be preferred.  Works perfectly with Ipads, too.  It has a USB outlet and two wired outlets. I use a mini-Ipad, carried along with the phone.  

  129. And yes the collapse looks exactly like controlled demolition that requires explosives at the bottom, fact is they weaken buildings all the way up with more. 

  130. Burrben

    I talk grid, batteries, and now you bring in building collapse. My engineering brain is exploding! Fear the experts when it makes no sense. That is why in the 80s I went back to school and studied business and economics. Even now I like tube circuits.

  131. Long-Term Portfolio Update (LTP):  Down a bit from $612,000 top but, added to $135,000 from the LTP and we're still at $740,000 – still in our comfort zone (at $735K we decided we may need to cash out a bit of the LTP).  We are using less than 1/3 of our buying power and we have our buy list to tap but, so far, the S&P hasn't spent even one full day over 2,000 – so no new buy signal yet.  

    The real questions here is:  Are there any positions here we wouldn't like anymore if the market drops 20% (and they along with it) and, are our long-term expectations worth the risk of keeping the position:

    Short puts:  These have hurt us the most this week as our speculation was that, IF this rally is real, then we ought to see a bit of a recovery in the materials sector.  To that end, we took entry positions on ABX, CCJ, EGLE, HOV and RIG – none of which are doing very well.  Still, there are none of these that I don't want to own long-term so I'm not inclined to ditch them 16 months early just because they're off to a slow start.  Even our big losers, EGLE and HOV, are not as bad as they seem if we let time move forward.  

    • AAPL – We didn't hedge the new play and it's suffering a bit this week but AAPL is just having the pullback we expected.  If AAPL does go lower, I'd be inclined to add short puts to the mix.  
    • CIM – Love those guys.  
    • NLY – Another great dividend payer.  
    • AAPL – Currently, this position shows net $3K.  If it works out, it will net $10K so still playable.  
    • CLF – Still playable. 
    • GTAT – Still playable. 
    • LULU – Still playable. 
    • SPLS – That was a very aggressive play that worked out better than expected.  I think we should cash it in.
    • TASR – I think we'll stick with these.  cheeky
    • TM – Still a good entry. 
    • WFM – Still a good entry. 

    Keep in mind that we did cash out this portfolio at the end of May, so most of these positions are new and haven't had much of a chance to begin making us money yet.  These long-term positions run on Time more than anything, in 4 more months we'll have a better idea of how they are doing. 

  132. Burrben / Shadow:  Nah. The trouble with a conspiracy of that magnitude is that too many people have to be in on it, and there are too many untraceable ways to get the message out.  Hell, they couldn't even keep the Watergate break-in a secret, and a President had his presidency at stake.  Tin hats all around, boys!!!

  133. Shadow-Spy on neighbors? What neighbors? The only thing we spy on are the deer eating the apples!~

  134. Phil-thanks for recap on the portfolio. I think we are all going nutsy here watching this market take ballooning lessons-up, up & away!

  135. Burrben 

    2 cents

    I worked in a the forging Plant we used scrap oil to heat steel  by dripping the oil and blowing air on the fire and the steel would get 2200 degrees for forging and if not taken out of the furnace it would melt To a liquid

    Fuel for jet planes is just oil (Kerosene) so the fire would soften or melt, the beams holding up the building.

    I think the heat from the fire rising held up the debris

  136. zeroxzero

    Sorry buddy but it only works one way, I think it isn't possible to set all the charges but the joints had to be weak and that could happen in construction with every worker doing exactly what the plans said. Why those 2 buildings? Wasn't Wall Street, not the Empire State building, or statue of liberty. The 2 buildings or 1 complex that was built to fail. And blowing up Iraq wasn't over oil? DUCK STORIES.

  137. Blackout/Shadow – NYC area had several big blackouts, mostly in the summers when a transformer or two blew on hot days.  Nothing sucks more than being stuck in NYC wearing a suit on a 100 degree day with no AC anywhere.  

    Dithers/Wombat – OK, here's what I think will happen (is happening) with AAPL:

    Submitted on 2014/08/21 at 2:59 pm

    AAPL/Diamond – A lot of stops are triggered on AAPL over $100 – longs taking profits, shorts capitulating.  I think they need the 200 dma to come up from $82.50 to $87.50 before they can get going again so that's +$5 and AAPL is at $100 so call it $20, which means it will take 50 days to bend the 200 dma that high but that will push the 50 dma (now $95) up to $97.50 in 25 days so AAPL may drift up around $105, then come back to $97.50 by Sept expirations and THEN it can bounce off there and have clear sailing to $120+.  How's that for a vague TA prediction?  

    So of course it is bouncing off $100 – even if it's going to ultimately fail – I wouldn't jump in here – I want to see how it handles $97.50 first.  Next week is a huge wild-card.  

    So we're up to the part where it hits $97.50 with Sept expirations still 14 days away and the announcement is a wild card but, at $80 (super-doubtful) unless AAPL announces a $10 IPhone and a $10M IWatch and nothing in between – I'm pretty sure I'll be BUYBUYBUYing any dip below $90 (very doubtful).  More likely they announce the new phone, a watch and the credit card system (works with both) and people will realize they are going to be the world's first $1Tn company ($160 per share) in the next few years.  

    Batteries/ZZ – My daughter has a battery pack that's twice the size of her phone but it charges 4 people at once so she's often the hero when there are phone power emergencies – as there often seem to be with teenage girls.  I don't know what brand but it was the best $130 she ever spent. 

    Cospiracy/ZZ – Those demolition conspiracies only serve to distract from the actual conspiracy which was willfully ignoring the terrorist threat in order to get a crisis that could then be used to turn the country into a police state while the top 1% seized power and the small group of conspirators got fantastically wealthy in the process – QED.   

    Oh, and by the way, don't criticize or you may be called "unAmerican." 

    You're welcome Pirate.  It reminded me how small and immature out LTP positions are.  A big sell-off would be great as it would give us a chance to deploy some of that sideline capital.  

    And, by the way guys – buildings are actually built to be collapsed that way when their useful life ends – it's not a conspiracy, it's how they have to design buildings for crowded cities because you can't expect to knock them down with a wrecking ball when you are done.  The terrorists simply took advantage of this fact and that's why they targeted the WTC with the first bomb as well.  

  138. private

    I scared the deer and none came back, even I can't believe it worked but they were smart white tail that aren't supposed to be this high, Mule deer always come back, elk just walked through getting drunk on the barley fermenting in their stomachs. I get 32 and freezing.

  139. Phil // AAPL
    So, what I'm hearing is 'wait until we have more information" ; >
    Curious, when you call the 200DMA, what timeframe are you charting ?


    ""200 dma to come up from $82.50 to $87.50 before they can get going again""

  140. Phil QC

    We must agree with Phil's explanation and as I stated the joints were weak not exploded and yes it would only work on a newish building and they knew which ones. The burning melting steel is a fact, some building codes don't allow steel unless encased in cement because in even a wood fire they weaken and fail before a thick wooden beam will burn enough to fail. Teton county stupid allows them only place I know that does and the WTC steel was encased, still it only accounts for 2 floors.

  141. Shadow:  Why the World Trade Centers?  Um, because they were taller than everything else and easier to hit with the airplane?  Because you could actually kill thousands of people instead of a dozen tourists on the Statue of Liberty balcony?  Or because "Wall Street" isn't a building, and Goldman Sachs is on Broad Street? C'mon, Shadow, you can believe what you like, but it must have been quite a trick coordinating TWO airplane strikes with a  simultaneous controlled detonation.   They hijacked four airplanes for the purpose — why not just hit the detonators? 


    And what if they had missed with the planes?  Lots of Kabuki for no particular reason, since it appears they didn't fool you guys!!!

  142. Not to mention that Bush is as dumb as a mud fence.  No way he was in on it.

  143. zeroxzero

    Reading comprehension? Did I say explosions or weak joints? And Bush dumb was mostly an act, I felt embarrassed for America when he talked but as the years go by I see a planning man. Reagan, another actor with a different act.

  144. Well, then Bush's "act" went all the way back to his Harvard grades, wouldn't you say?

  145. Speaking of conspiracies – here's why the markets went up at 11:30 instead of down:

    Hilsenrath: Jobs report takes pressure off Fed for Sept. meeting


    • The FOMC's July policy statement noted "significant underutilization of labor resources," reminds Jon Hilsenrath. With today's nonfarm payroll report showing unemployment the same in August (6.1%) as it was at the time of the July meeting, the Fed won't need to make big changes when it puts out this month's statement.
    • Under debate at the Fed is whether to change its assessment of labor market slack, and it's a back-and-forth likely to go for another few months. When the committee no longer sees "significant underutilization," it will be a signal interest rates are close to rising. Also of note: The broader U-6 unemployment rate fell to 12%, but it was 8.8% when the recession started.
    • A check of short-term rate futures finds them modestly higher and pricing in a 25 basis point rate hike by July of 2015.
    • Previously: Treasury yields slide following jobs miss

    AAPL/Wombat – Well, I said that on the 21st and already the 200 dma is up to $83.50 so + $1 in 10 days so far.  40 more days at this pace and it will be at $87.50.  50 dma is now $96.64 – right on track for my 25-day prediction (taking into account that the dip in AAPL to $97.50 would slow down the rise of the 50 dma, of course).  This stuff isn't hard – just think yourself forward and look at the chart and then work out backwards how you got there and then, when you come back to the present – you can see where you're going.  devil

    Bush dumb/Shadow – Well, I don't know about Bush but we have proof Reagan was just acting dumb:

  146. Ivy league schools? Who's my Daddy? The jerk was drunk doing cocaine. Auto in, auto graduate, auto 1% job. He and Reagan ruined the country and both were tied to the industrial military complex, everything for money.

  147. Holy cow ! !    Now profitable on ANAD position.  Sold almost half.  Hope it goes higher, but sell into the initial excitement.  Right, Phil ?

  148. plane crashed off the coast of Jamaica

  149. Phil Reagan

    The big secret the GOP visionaries are to dumb to know is he reversed most of his tax policies in his second term except the banking deregulation part. Yes smart enough to see in the 80s Americans were not as dumb as today, taxes, but dumb enough to have no clue what he did to banking fixes from the great depression, but that SOB was old enough to remember!

  150. Jabob – Hope you're enjoying this slide on PCLN.  Early article attributed weakness to competition.  I think fears of continuing malaise in Europe also a factor. 

  151. Thanks albo!

    I reduced again today on the slide.

    Enjoying TSLA being down for a change.

    Have a great weekend PSW!!!

  152. Phil Reagan

    You may remember I admitted voting for him and now the reason why; I actually believed he would save us from total devastation, when he brought in professor supply side I turned on him. He got one vote not 2, only GOP president I ever voted for, I even voted for the crazy Texan knowing he would loose.

  153. NE – hi Phil, how about this one? Buying the stock, selling '16 $25 puts and calls on this dividend payer? Current PE of ~7. TIA!

  154. BTW The Texan wasn't that crazy when he said with NAFTA you will hear a great sucking sound in America. I knew that was right.

  155. ANAD/Albo – Zacks put out a buy on them this morning and that's sending people into it but there is no news so I agree with taking some off the table but, hopefully, this will have some legs and get back to $1.25 on a good run.  

    Fed's Powell outlines need for Libor alternative

    • The Fed is stepping up efforts to search for an alternative to Libor, in what would be a major transition affecting hundreds of trillions of dollars in U.S. and worldwide contracts and derivatives.
    • Should the current system collapse without a substitute, the result would be "a horrible mess," warns Fed Governor Jerome Powell. Previous investigations found widespread manipulation of Libor, resulting in billions of dollars of fines.
    • The Fed, large financial firms and others will meet over the course of the next year to work toward an alternative benchmark.

    Contrarians take note: Leveraged ETTs fall out of favor

    • The costs are high and volatility – at the moment – is about nonexistent, so the institutions which use leveraged funds to hedge may not feel it's worth it anymore. While broad-market volume is lower – trading in the SPRD S&P 500 fund is down 13.8% from a year ago – volumes in leveraged funds are off 25-30%.
    • What's more, these vehicles are not exactly buy and put away – they're designed for one-day holdings, meaning traders are paying double the commissions and fees, further eating up any possible profit.
    • A few popular ones hit by the lessened interest: SSOSDSTNATZA.

    Daylight works: Publicly-listed REITs outperform non-traded ones

    • Comparing "round-trip total returns" on 34 non-traded REITs with those of their publicly-listed peers, Green Street Advisors found the non-traded vehicles lagged the public ones by an average of 360 basis points per year.
    • It turns out the key selling point of non-traded REITs – since they're not priced on a regular basis (sometimes for years at a time), they lack volatility, and therefore allow investors to sleep better at night – is actually their weakness.
    • "The institutional investment community has convinced itself that the short-term volatility that necessarily accompanies liquidity equates to higher long-term risk," says Green Street. "In other words, liquidity is a bad thing … Logic like that would conclude that the best way to avoid unpleasant medical news is to never visit the doctor.”

    Here's one way to fake more demand for energy:  Intercontinental Exchange launches 30 new energy contracts

    Shell CEO more concerned if U.K. leaves EU than Scottish independence

    • Royal Dutch Shell (RDS.ARDS.B) CEO Ben van Beurden says he is more concerned by a potential U.K. exit from the EU than he is by the prospect of Scottish independence.
    • U.K. PM Cameron has promised a 2017 referendum on whether Britain remains in the EU if he is re-elected in 2015, and he has said he would seek to renegotiate his country's relationship with Europe even if the U.K. votes to stay; van Beurden says the level of uncertainty around U.K. membership is "probably more" concerning for Shell.
    • Still, the CEO says it would be best if Scotland votes Sept. 18 to remain part of the union, adding that Shell hadn't made any contingency plans for a separation.



    • Citigroup analysts come to the defense of BPupgrading the stock to Buy from Neutral a day after shares suffered their worst showing since the 2010 Gulf of Mexico oil spill.
    • Citi believes the financial implications of yesterday's "grossly negligent" ruling will remain well below the maximum, arguing that the actual fine should come in at closer to $8B instead of the potential worst-case $17.6B in fines under the Clean Water Act.
    • Analysts also point out that the level of fines may not be determined for years, and BP likely could afford to pay them without major asset sales or a big dividend cut; Investec notes that Exxon took almost 20 years to settle the 1989 Valdez spill.
    • BP +0.9% premarket.
    • CME Group and Thomson Reutoers (NYSE:TRI) recently won the rights to handle the silver fix and appear ready to be tapped to do the same for gold. The four banks currently in charge of the gold fix together with the London Bullion Market Association yesterday called for interested firms to submit proposals to replace the current telephone-based system, and the winning bid will be announced in October.
    • Most in the business believe CME/Thomson Reuters to be the clear favorites, partly due to their winning the silver business. As the sliver process could be scaled to gold, one close to the process wonders whether any other companies will even bother trying to beat out the duo.
    • Nebraska's highest court will hear arguments today for TransCanada's (NYSE:TRP) proposed $5.4B Keystone XL pipeline, following five years of wrangling at the federal level.
    • At issue is a 2012 decision that killed legislation allowing the Canadian company to chart the pipeline’s course through Nebraska.
    • While a ruling upholding that decision would add another obstacle to the project, a reversal could immediately send the case to President Obama, forcing him to choose between unions who support the project and environmentalists who don’t.
    • Investors aren't buying the dip in Joy Global (JOY -0.5%) after the company posted another disappointing quarter, alongside a warning that prices for most major commodities remain depressed with minimal upside potential over the near term.
    • Barron's favors the stock, noting that a 33% surge in bookings to $923M should point to better sales ahead; also, on the services side, bookings rose 7% to $639M, a sign that fewer customers are delaying equipment maintenance.
    • Now may be the time to buy JOY on the assumption that an improving global economy will drive demand and prices for commodities, Johanna Bennett writes.
    • In December, Starbucks (NASDAQ:SBUX) will open in Seattle a 15K square foot interactive Roastery and Tasting Room where customers will experience a "union of coffee, theater, and manufacturing" in a "retail environment devoted to beverage information."
    • Roasting more beans will allow Starbucks to distribute them to more outlets – from 800 to 1.5K globally – and the company will also look to open 100 cafes dedicated to those blends over the next five years.
    • Starbucks will also continue its experiment with hyperlocal, small-footprint stores. In total, Starbucks expects to add 1,550 net new stores in fiscal 2014 and 1.6K n fiscal 2015.
    • Press release
    • Q2 pro forma net income of $6.1M or $0.16 per share vs. $5.5M and $0.15 a year ago.
    • System-wide comp sales up 5.4%, with a 5% increase for company-operated stores and a 5.9% for franchises. Restaurant contribution margin of 22.6% up 10 basis points.
    • Fiscal 2014 outlook: System-wide comp sales growth of about 5.5-6%, the opening of 9 to 11 new company-owned restaurants and 4 franchised, and restaurant contribution margin of 21.4-21.6%.
    • Previously: El Pollo Loco Holdings EPS in-line, beats on revenue
    • LOCO +4.1% premarket
    Why oh why can't we leave these poor corporations alone and let them regulate themselves???BASF must face asbestos coverup fraud claims, court says
    • BASF (OTCQX:BASFY) was ordered yesterday by the U.S. Court of Appeals in Philadelphia to face claims it fraudulently hid evidence that its talc products contained asbestos as it sought to scuttle thousands of personal injury lawsuits.
    • The court revived a suit alleging a unit of BASF systematically concealed damaging evidence and manufactured documents to defeat claims that its talc contained cancer-causing asbestos.
    • BASF and other makers of building products are still grappling with asbestos litigation, which began in the 1970s and has turned into the longest-running mass tort in U.S. history.

    Quiksilver crashes 30% after missing Q3 estimates

    • Quiksilver (ZQK -29.2%) plunges to five-year lows after FQ3 earnings came in well below estimates and revenues sank 19%
    • Excluding currency fluctuations, net FQ3 revenue in ZQK's Americas segment fell 26%, while Europe-Middle East-Africa declined 16%; ZQK's wholesale channel revenue dropped 30%, offsetting retail revenue growth of 1% and e-commerce revenue growth of 10%.
    • Cash balance has dropped to $107.8M at the end of July vs. $471M at the end of the prior-year period.
    • Janney Capital's Eric Tracy says today's tumble still is not enough to make the shares attractive, as near-term catalysts remain relatively limited while long-term uncertainty remains: he cuts his fair value estimate for the shares to $2.50 from $4.
    • This year has been a disaster for ZQK investors, with shares collapsing 77% YTD.
    • Zumiez (NASDAQ:ZUMZ) -6.8% premarket despite better than expected Q2 earnings, as the specialty retailer of action sports related apparel guided Q3 EPS to $0.49-$0.52, below analyst consensus of $0.54, and revenues of $207M-$211M and same-store sales rising in the low single digits.
    • ZUMZ expects Q3 gross margins to shrink 50-100 bps Y/Y due to a de-leveraging of fixed costs and lower product margins vs. analyst expectations of a 30 bps decline; also expects SG&A expenses to grow at a faster rate during H2.
    • Piper Jaffray sees ZUMZ shares as fully valued, downgrading to Neutral from Overweight as the cautious guidance offsets the Q2 beat and solid August sales.

    Just a few nanometers from having to switch to picometers!  Intel officially launches 14nm Core M CPUs

    • Four weeks after providing technical details for its Core M notebook/tablet CPUs, Intel (INTC +0.5%) has officially launched them.
    • Initial systems based on Core M, the first CPU line to leverage Intel's 14nm Broadwell architecture, are due in October. Dell, H-P, Lenovo, and Asus are among the OEMslaunching systems this year.
    • Intel asserts Core M "enables up to 50 percent faster compute performance and 40 percent faster graphics performance" than comparable 22nm Haswell CPUs. Core M parts are also said to be 50% smaller, and to require 60% less thermal power.
    • Intel, which is looking to enable converged devices that deliver PC-like performance in tablet-like form factors, has already promised certain Core M CPUs will enable fanless ~10" devices that are only 8mm-10mm thick. A slide picked up by AnandTech shows Intel estimates a CPU running a 10.1" tablet that's only 8mm thick should have a max power draw of less than ~4W. For a 13.3" tablet, the figure rises to ~5W.
    • The launch of Core M/Broadwell extends Intel's manufacturing process lead over AMD (AMD +0.1%), which has been trying to lower its PC dependence. While Broadwell lines use a 14nm process, AMD's Kaveri (desktop), Kabini (notebook), and Beema/Mullins (notebook/tablet) lines use 28nm processes from TSMC and Globalfoundries.

    BofA ups Broadcom target, talks up networking/broadband sales

    • Broadcom's (BRCM +1.2%) 20%+ discount relative to chip peers (due to combo chip and stock compensation worries) is unjustified in light of its "leadership in attractive Networking and Broadband markets that account for 60%+ of sales and 80%+ of profits," saysBofA/Merrill's Vivek Arya. His target has been upped by $5 to $50, courtesy of a sum-of-the-parts analysis.
    • Arya declares Broadcom is worth $46/share even if the combo chip business is deemed worthless, and that it's worth $54/share is the business can stabilize. "At just 12x PE, 9x 2015E EV/EBTDA, solid 7-8% FCF yield, BRCM's assets look too attractive and transformation too impactful to ignore in a consolidating industry."
    • The note shortly follows the launch of a new high-end smartphone/tablet combo chip that doubles 802.11ac Wi-Fi throughput (to 650Mbps) relative to existing parts. Improvements in simultaneous Wi-Fi/Bluetooth performance are also promised.
    • Broadcom, which maintains a dominant share of the high-end combo chip market (Qualcomm has been exerting pressure elsewhere), says its new chip will be "shipping in mobile devices" in Q3. That could be a reference to the iPhone 6 and/or the Galaxy Note 4

    Court ruling permits Yelp to manipulate ratings

    • Yelp (NYSE:YELP) has no obligation to display positive reviews on business owners' Yelp page, rules Judge Marsha Berzon.
    • The verdict comes after many years of small business owners claiming Yelp extorted advertising payments from them by threatening to remove positive reviews from their listings.
    • Yelp maintains that it does not engage in the hard-ball tactics, although the new ruling states that should the company do so intentionally, is would be perfectly legal under federal law.
    • PAA Research reports Zillow (Z -2%) has made changes to its Featured Listings service for Premier Agent subs in an effort to boost growth.
    • PAA, which has been bearish on Zillow for some time, thinks the changes could be a sign Zillow's ad inventory issues are growing as brokers try to exert more leverage.
    • Merger partner Trulia (TRLA -1.6%) is also off. Zillow's display revenue rose 53% Y/Y in Q2 to $16.1M; Trulia's media revenue rose 41% to $10.9M.
    • Previous: FTC wants more info from Zillow/Trulia

    CNBC: Alibaba to start trading on Sep. 19

    • CNBC reports Alibaba (Pending:BABA) will price its IPO on Thursday, Sep. 18, and begin trading the next day. That fits with recent reports from the WSJ and NYT.
    • The NYT reports today Alibaba's roadshow will start in NYC on Monday. No word yet on the price/valuation range sought by the Chinese e-commerce giant – plenty of analysts have assigned valuations above $150B.
    • Yahoo (YHOO +1%) has ticked higher following the report.
    • Related tickers: OTCPK:SFTBFOTCPK:SFTBY

  156. Rustle123 – ANET at new high.  Good company, but an over-priced baby MOMO.  AMBA, less expensive, also at new high on strong earnings.

  157. Phil Libor

    That is a major macro economic time bomb! Are the right people involved? In doubt.

  158. Now, even the chauffeurs are getting into the act !

    D.C. Mayor Vincent C. Gray’s onetime campaign chauffeur admitted in court Friday that he worked with others to violate campaign finance laws during the 2010 race.

    Mark H. Long, 47, pleaded guilty to conspiring with D.C. businessman Jeffrey E. Thompson and others to conceal under-the-table campaign payments and participating in a scheme to pay off another mayoral candidate to exit the race.

  159. GPRO – Also at a high.

  160. They should put BASF out of business,  "pour encourager les autres."

  161. IWM getting close to big resistance, 116.4

  162. NE/Deano – I like all these guys but low oil prices make this a very rough time for them.  As long as you REALLY want to own them long-term, then worth a poke but I very much doubt there's any urgency to catching them at the lows – if oil fails $90, they'll all be a lot lower in the winter.  

    Perot/Shadow – He made the big mistake of treating Americans like adults and showing them facts and figures, which confused a lot of people.  Of course the biggest mistake he made was Stockdale – he might have won if not for that choice:

    That was 1992 and he predicted that, in 15 years, you will have wrecked the country – he nailed it!  

    LIBOR/Shadow – Right by whose standards?  Did they ask Elizabeth Warren?  No.  Therefore, not the right people…  Still in early stages but it's as scary as a doomsday device…

    Well, we managed to close the week positive – congrats to all the conspirators!  

    Have a great weekend folks,

    - Phil

  163. SPX trades, and spiked, after the bell.

  164. Hope all take the time to listen to Perot, Fact is I knew he nailed it in 92 sorry Bill in comparison you were a flake. My problem was always too good with math and now I am on the watch list because I did secret stuff in the 70s and considered too smart. Why am I dangerous? Next thing is felony 20 years for being intelligent. Laugh now but you may live to regret it.

  165. Great article in the Atlantic about McCain and Graham's idiotic ISIS rant in the NYTimes: "The Unbearable Emptiness of a New York Times Op-Ed".

    I have my concerns about President Obama’s foreign policy. But nothing eases them like listening to his Republican critics. There’s an onion-like quality to the arguments GOP politicians often deploy against Obama’s policies in the Middle East. Peel away the layers of grave-sounding but vacuous rhetoric, and you’re left with almost nothing intellectually nourishing at all. 

  166. Strangelove It is all about fear.

  167. McCain, Graham, all about fear. Too bad they don't have a clue that the world, the entire world, fears the US more than anything. Remove that and we will be safe.

  168. Workers from a company outsourced by Mexico's state-owned oil company Pemex navigate the contaminated Hondo River as they work to remove premium gasoline from the water, caused by a pipeline spill near the town of Tierra Blanca, Mexico, on August 31, 2014. According to PEMEX, the August 27 spill was caused by an illegal tap in the pipeline by criminals trying to steal fuel.

    In this aerial view, fountains of lava, up to 60 meters high, spurt from a fissure in the ground on the north side of the Bardarbunga volcano in Iceland on September 2, 2014. The alert warning for the area surrounding Iceland's Bardarbunga volcano remained at orange then, indicating that it was showing increased unrest with greater potential for an explosive eruption.

    A three-week-old female White Rhinoceros runs with her mother Tanda, 21, at the Ramat Gan Safari, an open-air zoo near Tel Aviv, on September 3, 2014. The Safari Park reported that they have had two male White Rhinos born at the facility but this one is the first female born there in 20 years. The new female rhino will eventually be transferred to other zoos to take part in the White Rhino reproduction project aimed at increasing the population of this species in a zoo.

    Iraqi security forces and Shiite militiamen fire at ISIS militant positions during an operation outside Amirli, some 105 miles (170 kilometers) north of Baghdad, Iraq, on September 3, 2014.

    A health worker sprays a man with disinfectant chemicals as he is suspected of dying due to the Ebola virus as people look on in Monrovia, Liberia, on September 4, 2014. 

    An injured protester is taken from an ambulance at a hospital in Islamabad, Pakistan, on August 30, 2014. Pakistani police fired tear gas at thousands of protesters as they tried to march toward the prime minister's home in the capital on Saturday, blanketing the route with clouds of white smoke and scattering demonstrators. 

  169. Dramatic Photos of California's Historic Drought

    All I can say is there's nothing like photos to help understand the magnitude of the problem.

  170. Foreign policies / Phil – Here are a couple of good articles about what's going on here. I would not want to be president in these times. So many crisis to manage at the same time and so many things that can go wrong at any moment. It's really easy to throw bombs from the peanut gallery:

    So let's review. A year or two ago, we were involved in three overseas wars, all of them supported by Obama. At the time, Republicans were unaccountably dovish about military interventions. Today, Obama is refraining from getting deeply involved in three overseas wars. And guess what? Republicans have suddenly become hawkish again.

    Yep, this is a poser. What could possibly account for this change in Republican attitudes?

    And -

    I should add that nobody on the planet—not even John McCain!—knows how to destroy ISIS. Everybody wants some kind of magic bullet that will put them out of business without committing any ground troops, but nobody knows what that is. So until one of the blowhard hawks comes up with an actual plan that might actually work, I'll stick with Obama's more cautious approach. I figure he'll do something, but only when politics and military strategy align to provide a plausible chance of success. In the meantime, mindlessly demanding more bombs—the only action that most of Washington's A-list apparently considers worthy of a commander-in-chief—is just stupid.


    Sometimes you have to make a fast decision, even if you have limited knowledge. That's life. But other times you don't, and you'd be foolish to lock yourself into a decision when you have time to collect more intelligence. This is the true lesson of leadership: Make decisions as fast as possible, but no faster. That's what Obama is doing.

  171. ~~ Lake Oroville Jbur

    I remember anything my mine feels important forever but dates and names are forgotten, not what they said did or told me. 197? I was in Chico CA when a massive earthquake threaten the dam. My wife and I tried to get out of the house with a patio door wide open but ended on the floor. 2 years later it was approaching what you have but holy shit man, WHAT LAKE??

  172. Quote of the day:

    Robert Seawright, “Our irrationalities will necessarily overwhelm us unless we do everything we can personally so as consistently to check our work and have it challenged by smart and talented people we encourage to “tear it apart.” That’s because we don’t see things as they really are and are consistently and dangerously much less rational than we assume.”  (Above the Market)

  173. Good article about welfare subsidies – but not some that the GOP will try to reform:

    A new report  released Thursday by the Corporation for Enterprise Development, finds that homeowners collected $200 billion in 2013 from an assortment of different tax deductions. But the vast majority of those benefits accrued to the wealthy. For instance, a household in the top 0.1 percent receives an average of $17,276 in annual benefits from homeowner tax programs. For a household in the bottom 20 percent, it’s just $3. In other words, the rich receive 5,756 times as much in benefits from homeownership tax programs as the poor. That’s not that surprising, since many more upper-income households purchase homes than lower-income ones do.


    The solution is so simple, it would take 5 minutes to write the new IRS rules. And it's costly:


    That's $70B per year for the top 20%.

  174. stjean quote of the day

    Many times I question but this one was perfect timing and very true. Many should rethink ignore.

  175. STJ

    My tax deductions for last 14 years owner of my home $0000000000000000000000000000000000000000000

  176. And now I am trying to come up with 3 months income for property taxes and eat. Thank god I had a good garden output and ???? maybe 200lbs. or more potatoes because I bought $10 worth of mole poison, the deterrents a la tree hugger just feeds them all your efforts. 

  177. BTW last year I used a dozen 22 bullets killing them one took 2 to finish the wounded but still lost 90% to the moles, 11 moles what a joke and if you think your buying tree hugger potatoes, get a grip on reality. The government legalized lies!

  178. jasu1

    I have been in touch with Devan, I forgot his PSW ?? he has said he would market these systems and we may build mining computers also. As a fellow PSW member you get special treatment  and this is hard for me but I do know lots more because I built a trading system and past experience. Even today through MS I got an update from EVGA and that is just another the parts are important. I will also say to this day there is nothing for sale that equals my system and I would sell it to pay down medical debt but would miss watching what everybody at PSW misses and as a community what I add will someday come back to me.

  179. Another fact.

    When I quoted a system for $2,500 you can buy the parts for about $2,000 but I not only would put it together my quote includes $450 cost, in programs and all the drivers and updates so it will work instead of ask for everything under the sun and do nothing with lifetime support.

  180. If you feel fair is anything

    We sold Verizon cell phones and yes they screwed us but we did not lay down, years later we got a small settlement, I always forget bad times, maybe $150 or so but they did admit doing slimy business. Direct TV was about the same but we got nothing but ripped off. Keep this in mind when investing. Does V deserve your dollar backing?  

  181. Fact is we sold phones before they changed their name to Verizon, 2 names before they dreamed that up and yes they really believe in FU!

  182. How Sapphire, The Nearly Indestructible Material Now Being Used For Smartphones, Is Made

  183. What’s really outrageous about Eric Cantor’s Wall Street gig

  184. Hawaii’s Big Island Declares State Of Emergency After Lava Starts Flowing Out Of A Volcano

  185. BOEING: China Will Need $870 Billion Worth Of Planes Through 2034

  186. The last bit about a tendency to panic being an adaptive investing trait I found interesting.


  187. Pharmboy

    Hi I like to have your view on TEVA as a long term BCS  Jan16 40/50 partially paid by the sale of a Jan16 45 or 42.5 put TIA

  188. To all

    Helen found out that a few left contact info at the fund site. My email got hacked again so last nigh I hope I cleared it and sent messages to the contacts. Please except my apology for not responding, we didn't know. I am fairly certain my email has been hacked more than all of PSW together and that is why I believe I am on a watch list. I am just too old to  accept our rights going away. Thanks to everyone!


    Should one of the world’s richest men get to dictate the future of how we learn about our past?


    Plentiful jobs at good pay, the critical underpinning of a strong economy, are still not in the cards.


    A methodology that aims to ease partisan divide through personal connections could have advantages both in politics and personal life.

  192. ~~Should one of the world’s richest men get to dictate the future of how we learn about our past?Phil~~Should one of the world’s richest men get to dictate the future of how we learn about our past?

    NO NO NO NEVER! Especially that particular guy. Successful in business is an understatement but as I have posted in the past, I met him, and thought he was so strange I turned down a offer arranged by another analyst, that lived in Seattle that quit Raytheon to join Microsoft. Never saw either ever again.

    He made his fortune in America and if wasn't so strange a guy would put more to work here instead of getting other supper rich people to follow his lead of doing little for America. 

  193. Some Transportation and Energy trends for your consideration for investment planning. 

    According to US EIA (DOE) projections, nat. gas will generate 35% of all electricity by 2040, more than double the share in 2000.  Coal-fired plants are rapidly being replaced/retrofitted for nat. gas.  This trend will reduce coal mining, coal transportation resulting additional reductions in emissions throughout the supply chain.  Nat. gas use is expanding in fleet service (buses, freight trucks, GE locomotives, ships,etc.)  If the cost benefit of nat. gas vs. oil remains in place for a few more years nat.gas infrastructure will be well established. 

    The southern leg of the Keystone Pipeline now carries 700,000 bopd from Cushing, OK to Nederland, TX to supply the Gulf Coast refineries.  If (when) approved the northern leg will deliver synthetic crude made from kerogen extracted from the Canadian tar sands of Alberta to the Gulf Coast for refining and export. 

    EIA estimates that US refineries received more than 1MM bopd by rail, truck and barge in 2012, a 57% increase over 2011.  Rail experienced the greatest increase.  In 2008 US Class I railroads originated 9,5000 carloads of crude oil; by 2012 they were moving 234,000 carloads and 2013 is expected to have exceeded 400,000 carloads.  In addition to crude the railroads are very busy with frack sands (proppants) as I have mentioned in the past.  In 2012 ~200,000 carloads were shipped by rail.

    Energy companies are looking to increase the capacity to export nat. gas as LNG.  Six LNG ports have permits for up to 9.3 billion cubic feet of LNG per day.  20 more applications are pending.  EIA estimates that more than 2 Trillion cubic feet of LNG will be exported per day (!) by 2020. 

    Domestic production of steel, chemicals, glass, plastics, and fertilizer stand to benefit the most if nat. gas remains relatively inexpensive.  Note however, that other raw materials may have a bigger influence on the cost of production and inflation in these could easily offset the benefit of lower energy costs.

    So there is my 2 cents for your consideration.

    Source:  Transportation Research Board of the National Academies

    PS:  Fracking is beginning to take off in China now and at first blush they may have more shale/tight gas than the US  so the impact may be even more significant for their economy over the next 10-20 years..

  194. StJ:  Hollande/LaPen – Whither France?  Europe?  Is this just a local spat, or is the Eurozone moving Right? If so, what would "Right" imply for the EU?  I've been watching the Catalan / Arturo Mas attempt at secession, but I am at a loss in trying to generalize the political effect[s] of the protracted European  recession.  Would it be an impractical fantasy to think that one or more Eurozone countries could revert to a national currency and stiff Euro bondholders?  

  195. Great FT article on forecasting.  Keynes & Phil share[d] a viewpoint, it seems:


     "The secret to Keynes’s eventual profits is that he changed his approach. He abandoned macroeconomic forecasting entirely. Instead, he sought out well-managed companies with strong dividend yields, and held on to them for the long term. This approach is now associated with Warren Buffett, who quotes Keynes’s investment maxims with approval. But the key insight is that the strategy does not require macroeconomic predictions. Keynes, the most influential macroeconomist in history, realised not only that such forecasts were beyond his skill but that they were unnecessary."



    September 5, 2014 12:09 pm

    How to see into the future

  196. "At the end of 1984, a member of Big Brother’s regime, in the midst of carrying out torture, makes a certain admission: “power is not a means, it is an end.” Whatever is in Putin’s mind, whatever he says and does, all he is really defending is his own power…"

    Read more:

  197. And lastly, careful on short oil positions.  The 11 missing airliners, according to Stratfor's Fred Burton, will not get anywhere near the U.S. but one could be used to plow into a Middle Eastern oilfield as part of an attack.


    I thought this one couldn't be true but I verified it:

  199. Getting paid 21$ an hour and selling a hamburger for .56 cents please do the math on this BS

  200. Yodi – please review that sentence again. The claim is their hamburgers only cost an incremental $0.56 more than US hamburgers. A very big difference than your interpretation (and mine on the first reading). Can the higher wage structure only add $0.56 to a burger? It is possible, but we would need to know about their fixed and variable costs and the quantity of products sold on some basis of time… Eric

  201. Eric OK thanks I follow but still checked with some young friends here in Germany Basic Hamburger 1€

    so 1.30 US wages 5 to 6 € say top 8$ Normally dif between brutto and netto 1/3 so if they take home even 4 € it is a lot. Fixed employees can get up to 15€ less 1/3 so 10 to 11€ or say 14.50 $ roughly in USD. 

    I do not think the conditions in Denmark are better than here so still a lot of BS

  202. Yodi

    No minimum wage in Denmark, but the average minimum wage was about $20 USD in 2013. So Louise seems to be telling the truth.

  203. Phil- what is your policy on dividend reinvesting? I don't see you mention it, so I am curious if you are against doing that? I usually do and for instance on CIM if you bought 1000 shares in May the dividend in July would have been $90 and could have been reinvested for 28 additional shares @$3.21 at the time it was paid. Repeat every quarter and pretty soon you have built a bigger position bringing in 11% on the additional shares each quarter. So why not do that?  

  204. Pay in America is a disgrace, no argument necessary. Watching football today I am totally sold on the new rules not only make the game safer but also more fair and that is based on 2 not finished games. There are more before Sunday night is over but I just don't expect to change my mind. Do all to promote free TV, the picture is so much better than any pay service!

  205. Other football fun, Red's Apple Ale, is that the first commercial bart? Barley malt and cider. The other missed part was ???  shot "unfiltered", my secrets being commercialized. Of course if you love bud or coors we disagree.

  206. akademia 

    Hourly wages and I believe in Father Christmas 20$

  207. yodi

    You must admit $7.35 is not a living wage, that is more or less half of my disability after all consideration, medical and tax. $21  is a stretch but might be true, wages are being repressed in Germany also.

  208. Wages have to be in relation to the product you sell. Say the hamburger sells for 1.30$ at 21$/hour you need to sell 16 hamburgers to cover one worker not taken any other cost of the product in to consideration possible you need 3 people to sell one hamburger that is nearly 50 hamburgers / hour nearly 1 minute per hamburger, just not possible. Even if the building and the cost of the hamburger was for free.

  209. Burgers sell for close to $5 where wage is $7.35 but yes yodi $21 is hard to believe, find a MCD and check German price, regular no promotional.

  210. Sorry shadowfax I do not eat these hamburgers check what they put in them and you will not eat them any more!!!! Obviously Phil's 25$ hamburger is something else.

  211. Bed time for me meet you all tomorrow.

  212. but we already have such thing as BigMac Index?

  213. yodi

    I don't eat them either but realize I asked for you to check a euro price and don't eat them, beer is more healthy!

  214. I picked up Henry Kissinger's book On China [catchy title] out of a sense of obligation, not being the kind of overly-seriously political tract I normally care to read.  I am 76 pages into it, and have learned more about China in a few hours than I have learned from all the FT/Economist/NYT-whatever news reports I have read over decades.  Hard to believe that a book like this would be a real page-turner, but I highly recommend it for anyone with even a glancing interest in the past, and future, of geopolitics.   Fascinating. 

  215. Good morning! 

    Europe taking a bit of a dive, down half a point into lunch – not sure why yet.  

    Our Futures failing 17,100, 2005, 4,085 and 1,170 so same shorting lines as last week – and last week we were lucky to get nickels and dimes – keep that in mind!  

    Dollar being rejected so far at 84, oil dove from $93.50 to $92.50 but looks a little supported there.  

  216. Here's this morning's negatives that probably sent us lower:

    Fed’s Plosser Says Keeping Rates Low Is ‘Risky Strategy'

    Fed Economists: Low Rates Could Undermine Financial StabilityMonetary policy accommodation to help the economy may backfire by creating conditions that could undermine financial stability and cause sharp downturns, according to a report by two top Federal Reserve researchers

    JPMorgan's 16 Reasons Why The Fed Should Hike Rates (And 5 Excuses For Delaying)

    JPMorgan Stunner: "The Current Episode Of Excess Liquidity Is The Most Extreme Ever"

    The Lesser Depression: How Bubble Finance Has Deformed The Jobs Cycle

    The Monetary Stimulus Obsession: It Will End In Disaster

    • New EU sanctions against Russia are expected to be implemented Tuesday, expanding upon previous sanctions introduced in July.
    • The restrictions will bar sales of dual-use technologies, bar Russian military companies from EU fundraising and most importantly hit state-controlled banks and oil companies, including Gazpromneft, refining subsidiary of Gazprom (OTCPK:OGZPY), Transneft and Rosneft (OTC:RNFTF).
    • Despite a new ceasefire agreed to by Kiev and pro-Russia rebels on Friday, fighting continued to plague two cities in Ukraine's east over the weekend.

    Why Draghi's ABS "Stimulus" Plan Won't Help Europe's Economy

    British Pound Collapses To 10-Month Lows

    Ukrainian Deaths Test Truce as Both Sides Report Losses

    Ceasefire Over: Shelling Resumes In Mariupol And Donetsk

    • Revised figures now show that Japan's real GDP shrank an annualized 7.1% between April and June, topping the 6.8% fall reported two weeks ago, due to a bigger than expected decrease in capital expenditure and decline in consumer spending.
    • The contraction marks the country's biggest slump since the first quarter of 2009, and puts pressure on Prime Minister Shinzo Abe's decision, expected by year-end, on whether to proceed with a scheduled second increase in the sales tax to 10%.

    OMGodzilla! Japanese Macro Data Revisions Even More Disastrous Than Expected

    Shinzo Abe's Six Most Worrisome Charts

    Japan's "Money Illusion" Will Fail, Goldman Warns

    China Begins Crackdown on Spending at State-Owned Companies. Govt to crack down on spending by executives of state-owned companies on golf outings and memberships, receptions and excessive book purchase, according to a report by the Communist Party's discipline commission. Campaign also targets executives who fail to report overseas trips or holding of private passports. 

    Hedge Funds Cut Bullish Gas Bets as Volatility Slides

    CFTC Weighing Broader Commodities Hedge Exemptions Pushed by BP(BP)The main U.S. derivatives regulator is working to address energy and agricultural firms’ concerns that rules meant to curb speculation in commodities could harm their business, according to the agency’s chairman. The Commodity Futures Trading Commission, preparing to complete rules for so-called position limits, is debating the scope of exemptions for firms that use swaps to hedge business risks, Timothy Massad said yesterday in an interview with Bloomberg Television’s Peter Cook. Representatives for companies including Cargill Inc. and BP Plc (BP/) have pressed to broaden exemptions.

    New iPhone Faces Risk as Carriers Phase Out SubsidiesApple's Smartphone Has Grown Thanks to Discounts From Service Providers.

    This is not good stuff, if anything, we should be down a lot more on all this crap news.  Watch 6,800 on FTSE – if that goes, we'll fall a lot further.  DAX already failed 9,750 and CAC failed 4,475 – all bad.  

  217. I got caught up this morning – please reask anything I missed in the new post.