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Thrilling Thursday – Rejection at S&P 2,000

SPY 5 MINUTEOh my God, it's dip!  

The Futures are off a bit today and that's no surprise to those of us who have been paying attention to the volume, or lack thereof, as we made our final approach at the 2,000 line on the S&P 500.  Jim Cramer was literally foaming at the mouth this week as he and his CNBC co-conspirators herded the sheeple into the markets to participate in the tail end of the rally, where the suckers could hold the bags for their Corporate Masters.  

Why am I angry at Cramer today?  Because yesterday he committed the same crime he commtted in 2008 that cost so many people their life's savings – he told people not to sell their stocks on a pullback.  "Don't take profits" is the message for the viewing public.  But, I would ask, if people don't take profits – when will they ever get profits?  What kind of stupid message is that?  Well, it's the message that leaves you holding the bag while his hedge fund buddies head for the exits.  It's not much different than telling one group of people not to leave a burning building while you make sure all your friends are getting out safely.

"This is not just my opinion. I can prove it to you empirically. See, as I was preparing to write my book "Get Rich Carefully," I went over the previous five years of trades made by my charitable trust. And as I reviewed those trades I noticed that far too often, my good judgment would be overcome by excessive skepticism."

If the "proof" Jim is talking about is his Action Alerts Plus, then I'd say you really should think long and hard about following his advice here (via Kirk Lindstrom – who does compete with Cramer):

Jim Cramer's Action Alerts Plus Performance & Returns

I guess, sure, Jim legitimately should regret that he wasn't more bullish from 2008 to 2013, when the market popped 200% and his trust gained about 100% but don't you think the lesson Cramer should be taking from that experience is to CUT YOUR LOSSES, not "ride it out"?  Had he put the brakes on in 2008 with a 20% loss, instead of a 37.7% loss, then he would have entered 2008 with $11,198.40 and not $8,725 and that same 100% subsequent gain would have had him around $22,400 vs $16,600 – a 35% improvement or 7% PER YEAR!  

INDU WEEKLYThis is why Warren Buffet's Rule #1 is "Don't lose money" and his Rule #2 is "See Rule #1".  We talked about this in our live webinar on Tuesday (replay here) as our goal of the year at PSW is to teach people our "slow and steady" system for investing to CONSISTENTLY make good returns by being the house – not the gambler (see how I work in our videos – pretty clever!).  

Slow and steady is winning us the race so far this year as our Long-Term Porfolio finished the day up 22.3% for the year while our Short-Term Portfolio, which hedges the LTP with bearish bets, is accidentally up 35.1% for the year.  I say accidentally because, usually, it doesn't do so well in a bull market but we figured out mid-year that this market wasn't going down and made some pretty clever bets to compensate, and now it's turned into a huge winner.  

NYMO DAILYIn the STP, we're short the Dow with DXD ($24.40) and short the Nasdaq with SQQQ ($35.70) and short GMCR ($134.73) and WYNN ($196) and XRT ($89.47) and FAS ($106.71) and BIDU ($215) and TSLA ($263) with a few long hedges on stocks we really like to the long side.  In short (get it?), we're very short and positioned for a correction at this point.  

But the point of our hedges isn't to blindly hold on to our long positions in a correction.  We have lines on our Big Chart and, when those lines begin to fail – we begin to lighten up.  There's nothing wrong with CASH!!!  In fact, the Dollar is up 3.6% for the month, keeping pace with the S&P (up 3.8%).  There's nothing wrong with gold either and we just added a bullish trade idea by shorting GLL (ultra-short gold) at $87.59.  

Our LTP, on the other hand, is 100% long but most of the positions are well-hedged and well in the money, so a little correction isn't going to scare us of – but a big one will!  That's the point of the Short-Term Portfolio, it's meant to gain while the LTP loses and that should give us time to get back to cash without taking heavy losses and without having to panic if we get a "black swan" kind of dip, like we did in 2011, when the S&P, after a 22% gain from 2010, lost all of the 18 months worth of gains in less than 3 weeks.  

Should we "ride out" these dips?  No, we've learned our lessons and are, hopefully better investors now than we were then and that is why Cramer, reinforcing the wrong-headed platitudes of the past, bothers me so much.  We have our own Rule #1 at PSW and it's: "ALWAYS sell into the initial excitement" and Rule #2 is "When in doubt, sell half."  We also have a Rule #3 and our Rule #3 goes: "If you didn't follow Rule #1 or Rule #2, why are you even bothering to read this rule?"  

I wonder how many of our Members are following the rules.  Our virtual portfolis are already half cash and we'll be happy to go to 75% cash if we don't like the looks of the market next week.  At the moment, we feel pretty confident we can ride out a 5% correction with minimum losses, and that would take us back below our 50 dmas and that would get us bearish until those lines are re-taken. 

With the low volume we have this week, 2,000 is a meaningless number and the S&P isn't far enough over 11,000 and doesn't have enough volume to get us more bullish but we did select 11 new candidates for our Buy List in yesterday's Live Member Chat Room (you can join it here) and we'll be HAPPY to join Cramer if this rally has room to run but keep in mind – if you are going to follow his advice and hang on to your positions after our warning levels start flashing – we'll be the people passing you by on our way to the exits. 

Be careful out there!  

 


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  1. Oil Lines

    R3 – 95.1
    R2 – 94.67
    R1 – 94.22
    PP – 93.79
    S1 – 93.34
    S2 – 92.91
    S3 – 92.46


  2. Should be good for TASR:

    http://arstechnica.com/tech-policy/2014/08/senator-wants-all-us-cops-to-wear-video-cameras/

    Claire McCaskill, the Democratic senator from Missouri, says police departments nationwide should require their officers to wear body cameras in order to qualify for the hundreds of millions of dollars in federal funding they receive each year.


  3. GDP a bit higher than expected at 4.2% but it looks like the Ukraine crisis is the main driving force right now!


  4. Good chart that confirms the low volume move:

    http://stockcharts.com/articles/dont_ignore_this_chart/2014/08/volume-drying-up-on-djia.html

    Dollar-Weighted Volume (DWV) is a short-term indicator. Generally the DWV and the price index run pretty close together, with tops confirming tops and bottoms confirming bottoms. What we look for are positive/negative divergences and for instances where volume doesn't confirm price, meaning that volume either leads or lags price. When this happens, look for a change in the short-term price trend. Right now we are seeing a divergence between DWV and price on the Dow Jones Industrials. Currently price is moving up faster than volume. This tells us that volume is drying up and support for the rally in the short term may be falling away. 


  5. Phil // Morning
    Rational for shorting ultra short gold instead of just buying GLD ?


  6. Norman Rockwell reviewed by MAD Magazine:


  7. I think Lucy Koh works for the Korean government.



  8. Phil, r u still in BIDU Oct14 220 Puts?


  9. GM Brings Cadillac SRX Production To Tennessee.

    The AP (8/27) reports General Motors announced on Wednesday that it is going to move production of the Cadillac SRX crossover SUV from a plant in Mexico to a plant in Tennessee. US Sen. Lamar Alexander (R-TN) and Gov. Bill Haslam were in attendance at the announcement and praised the decision of GM to migrate its production to the state. GM said the decision will “create or retain” about 1,800 jobs, and that a $185 million investment in the Spring Hill engine factory would retain about 390 jobs. The company also announced on Wednesday that a $50 million investment in its Bedford, Indiana plant will retain 45 jobs.

            The Tennessean (8/27) reports General Motors Manufacturing Manager Arvin Jones said that the Spring Hill plant was chosen for its production track record. Other spokesmen for the factory noted that it was a “proud day” for the plant and for the people of Spring Hill and that the decision by GM to bring back jobs from Mexico sent “a strong message” to the US.

            The Wall Street Journal (8/28, Bennett, Subscription Publication), Detroit Free Press (8/28, Bomey) and Bloomberg News(8/28, Higgins) also report on this story.

     

    Ford’s Dearborn Plant Conversion Running Smoothly.

    The Detroit Free Press (8/28, Priddle) reports that managers at the Ford plant in Dearborn, Michigan are happy to report “no hiccups” with the removal of old machinery from the body shop of the plant. Crews are halfway through removing the machinery and are loading 1,100 tractor trailers with the old equipment in an effort to rebuild the shop for the new 2015 F-150 pickup. Employees are working around the clock to convert the plant.


  10. Good morning!   

    Oil went flying, $94.40 now, indexes doing nothing on our lines (17,050, 1,990, 4,060 and 1,165) but generally failing to hold them despite the "good" GDP report at 4.2% (from 3.9% revised on 2nd estimate).  So we can use those lines for SHORTING now.   Business investment is picking up with fixed investments up 8.4%, up from 5.5% at first estimate.  I wonder, however, how much of this Business Investment is the same blip in aircraft orders that pumped up the Durable Goods Report?  

    Of course good news is bad news here as the Fed doesn't want us growing at 5% or more GDP – they HAVE to put the brakes on if this number is real.  Interesting predicament!  

    This was driven not by a change in actual spending, the most important driver of the US economy, which was unchanged from the first estimate at 1.69%, but, amusingly enough, by a jump in fixed investment, i.e., CapEx, which rose from 0.3% in Q1 to 0.91% in the first Q2 GDP estimate to 1.25% currently: this is the highest CapEx print since Q4 2011. How is this possible (especially when one excludes Boeing orders)? Nobody knows, unless the BEA now adds stock buybacks to its definition of fixed investment, which as everyone now knows, is where the bulk of corporate free cash flow has been going.

    As for inventory, it rose at a slightly lower pace, up 1.39% vs the 1.66% annualized pace reported previously, although on an absolute basis the number was again higher,  and as JPM reports, inventories rose by 84 billion versus the $67 billion JPM had expected, "potentially dragging on Q3."

    Finally, the other two components, Net Trade, were largely unchanged at -0.45%, and 0.27% respectively.

    All in all this simply means that either the final Q2 GDP revision will be where all the dirt is stuffed in one month, or Q3 GDP will be a reversion to a much lower mean.


  11. Good Morning!


  12. TASR/StJ – Well, let's see:  We have 500,000 policemen in the US so $200 per camera is $100M – she'd better have some cash to back up those demands, not the threat of not giving them $130M if they don't spend $100M.  I hate it when politicians throw numbers and demands around like that without actually doing the math – it's totally counter-productive.  

    If the communities want the police to have $100M worth of cameras then they need to chip in $200 per officer and problem solved.  Or, obviously, $100M is a drop in the Federal Bucket so give the police the resources to buy the stuff but you can't threaten the funds they already need to survive – that's just grandstanding BS.  

    New Gasoline (/RBV4) is a fun long over the $2.60 line.   Oil is right at $94.50 so strong sign if it stays over but I still prefer oil short here (/CL) to long. 


  13. Phil – What does FA say would be good level to enter WSM?


  14. Another good Rolling Stone article:

    http://www.rollingstone.com/politics/news/the-biggest-tax-scam-ever-20140827

    "The things these companies are doing, 20 years ago would almost certainly have been illegal," says Bob McIntyre, president of Citizens for Tax Justice. "But now you've got so many big, powerful corporations doing it that it's the norm." Systematic avoidance helps explain why corporate income taxes – one-third of federal revenue in the 1950s – have now dropped below 10 percent of Treasury receipts today.

    Many in corporate America justify this rampant tax dodging by arguing that the 35 percent corporate tax rate in the U.S. is too high. In reality, our system offers big corporations so many other tax favors that the effective tax multinationals pay on their U.S. profits is often lower than what the same companies pay in other developed nations. "The constant corporate whining that they're overtaxed in the United States," McIntyre says, "is bullshit."


  15. If I couldn't put fear in you yesterday TLT over 118 and 2 little sell programs drop  the average like a rock today TLT is holding over 119.


  16. North Korea Rips Into U.S. Over Ferguson

    After staying silent for weeks about the tensions in Ferguson, North Korea said that President Barack Obama "has refused even to remain a human being to say nothing of a statesman."

    This is what I mean about losing the moral high ground – the consequences are huge and then we make policy mistakes because people (Fox People) refuse to believe we have lost the moral high ground – and that makes us come off even worse and down we keep sliding.  

    GLL/Wombat – Because if oil stays flat, GLL (an ultra) will still decay over time and that means shorting it gives us an advantage as long as gold holds our bottom at $1,285.

    Great cartoon, StJ.  Man, that child's skull is horrifying – glad I didn't know that when they were younger – ewwwww!  Brick machine is amazing – I had no idea.  Why couldn't these guys have done my pool?:

    1. Path-Laying Machine...

    Companies/StJ – You would have thought INTC would have done better (now $171Bn) than that.  

    Wheeeeee!  Down we go!  

    BIDU/STP, Abseth – Still in the STP but it's hedged with a March $220/185 bear put spread. If the sell-off looks real, we should cut  back a bit but we're also 4 covering 3 already.  

    WSM/Diamond – Was overpriced to actual growth.  200 dma at $63 might hold but a lot of disappointed people plus the downgrade police means we may get lower next week but that company hasn't stayed much below the 200 dma since 2011 at $30 so $60 probably a good price moving forward so I'd keep my eye on those $60 puts, now $5.75 and if you can get $5 for the $55 puts (now $4), even better.  

    I don't know about Pottery Barn but one big mistake WSM is doing in their main stores is featuring food that is so expensive that no one actually buys it.  I'm sure the margins are amazing but, if they had the kind of gourmet food people actually bought – then they'd be in the store more often and more likely to buy $200 pans etc.  

    Good article, StJ – Too bad the Rolling Stone is one of the last magazines in America willing to stand up to these guys.

    Wheee! on oil already, $94.30 and dropping!   Indexes stopping out after nice dips – watch the lines again, maybe a chance to go long on the laggard now (VERY TIGHT STOPS!). 

    TLT/Shadow – And VIX popped to 12.73, probably both good for shorting now as it never seems to last.


  17. GLL/Wombat, All – Here's a good illustration of why shorting an ultra is a good idea over the long haul (vs being long the opposite ultra).  GLD has been generally flat since June (+/-3%) but GLL (red line) has ended up 10% off it's highs and, going back further, it's 20% off where it was in Jan on a less than 5% rise in GLD (and GLL is only supposed to be a 2x ETF):

    You should always look at charts like this before investing in any ETF – ESPECIALLY Ultra ones!  


  18. Thi-What I don't understand is BKW says they are getting "lower" taxes in Canada? If they think its such a smashing deal why did WEN sell out? Having lived, travelled in Canada for years I can say the reason THI does well is they have the only rest room facilities in the farther reaches of Canada. There are some rest area's on the well travelled routes, but they are not flush toilets & pretty gross. THI used to have phenomenal pastry's, donuts etc & then  they cheapened them up & they turned into ho-hum nothing special. The coffee, tea was great too,but then changed. In other words they are nothing like Starbucks who seems to be adjusting to changing norms & I think still has great coffee, teas etc. & bringing in more healthy alternatives to their food choices. Can not see the valuation, or reason for this sale at all!! Bkw food-Never eat there, but we are picky I guess. But it seems the shift is into healthy foods ie WFM. How could they do so well if attitudes weren't changing?


  19. Who knew we'd have to rely on the Rolling Stone to provide one of the few outlets for factual reporting?……


  20. General question about strategy: I've noticed you recommend long term, fairly far OOTM  puts on solid stocks . I've been trying a strategy where I try to generate shorter-term (several weeks out) income with nearer, closer to the money puts. Very small amounts, maybe 0.2% of portfolio

    If they stay out of the money, I make a little cash I can spend, if not I roll out and down, which I could do indefinitely if the stock is a seriously moated company like FCX. Again, I do this with stocks I would want to own, and for which I have enough money to buy if needed even if that is not my primary goal. 

    Given a majority of these plays will generate cash, is it really much worse than writing the long term put in the first place? 


  21. Private has been making bad choices for over 20 years and this is just another. Warren is no fool and he is in a big cash position and wants to make a buck. For him this is about the same as members here with a $1 mil portfolio shorting 1 oil contract. We do agree that the coffee and donuts have turned pretty bad.


  22. private

    That is one e-mail drop out and now this, What happened to the line down and start with Burger King!


  23. CLF???


  24. FU  CLF


  25. This must be corporate buying control not allowing you to mention a company and bad news, same thing happened in my e-mail and this happened yesterday. I also think there is something up with the amount of letters out of order, fro instead of for, dropping letters, I can't even type with 2 hands. Are they doing this to make me look stupid? I wasn't ever a good proof reader because I read too fast, now I waste time checking and still miss some of it.


  26. Phil I see your comments on WSM my thinking act in the excitement setting up a tree planting of buy the Jan16 60c @ 11.16 and sell the 60p for 5.50 holding back with selling the 70c until the dust has settled even that you could sell the 60 caller for 6.65 making it a free trade. Looking for a better entry. I might not fail to mention I am holding the stock at 41.15 so room to play.

    Obviously holding back on monthly callers.


  27. CLF just being its normal volatile self! This stock is so susceptible to rumors that you really need a strong stomach for the ups and downs… 


  28. Bathrooms/Pirate – That's one of the secrets to SBUX success too, reliable bathrooms and, of course, what's better after having a nice pee than a cup of coffee?  Actually the messed up thing in the US tax code is that we make companies pay us 35% tax (those that actually pay it) on earnings in foreign countries (less what you are taxed there) while other countries don't tax you on foreign earnings.  So this is our fault because, while BKW may still pay 35% on their US profits, they will now only pay 15% on their Ireland Profits, etc – that's where the savings are.  Meanwhile, Reuters did a study that shows companies that have done these inversions have done no favors for their shareholders.

    They don't seem able to get back over our levels so, obviously, no long action but maybe we can re-short.  Either way it's a dangerous game today other than those fast nickels and dimes.

    Rolling Stone/1020 – Of course, back in the 60s, it was Rolling Stone who unleashed Hunter Thompson on Nixon.  If not for them, I doubt the WaPo would have ever had the balls to check into him.  The press only had a brief period of actual freedom when we were kids – just memories now..

    “It is Nixon himself who represents that dark, venal and incurably violent side of the American character that almost every country in the world has learned to fear and despise. Our Barbie-doll president, with his Barbie-doll wife and his boxful of Barbie-doll children is also America's answer to the monstrous Mr. Hyde. He speaks for the Werewolf in us; the bully, the predatory shyster who turns into something unspeakable, full of claws and bleeding string-warts on nights when the moon comes to close…”  Hunter S. Thompson

    His obituary on Nixon was kick-ass too

    Richard Nixon is gone now, and I am poorer for it. He was the real thing — a political monster straight out of Grendel and a very dangerous enemy. He could shake your hand and stab you in the back at the same time. He lied to his friends and betrayed the trust of his family. Not even Gerald Ford, the unhappy ex-president who pardoned Nixon and kept him out of prison, was immune to the evil fallout. Ford, who believes strongly in Heaven and Hell, has told more than one of his celebrity golf partners that "I know I will go to hell, because I pardoned Richard Nixon."

    Stategery/Sn0 – There's nothing wrong with short-term put selling until it goes wrong, then you end up owning a lot of stock right when the market is turning lower.  In a sharp correction (see above) you won't always be able to roll or, in a relentlessly down market, you'll do your roll and it will get worse and then roll and worse and still in trouble only out of margin.  We learned these things the hard way so you don't have to!  Here's FCX's "serious moat" in action in the summer of 2011:

    What's your plan if you sold the Aug $50 puts for $1 in July?  By Aug expiration they were $7 and a month later another $10 down.  That wipes out a year of $1 gains.  Had instead you sold the 2012 $45 puts for $50, your net would have been $40 and you would have shown a loss, but then FCX was back to $40 in Jan 2012 and you would be up $5 instead of clawing your way back from a catastrophe.  

    We do short-term put and call sale in the Butterfly Portfolio but they are hedged against long-term moves against us – we don't do them naked.  We used to, but having 5 black swans in the past 7 years has indicated that strategy is simply too dangerous for most investors (those without massive margins and reserve buying power). 

    CLF/Jabob, Stock – Strange, they are buying back their stock and selling non-core assets at the same time.  Seems like they are making some kind of move:

    WSM/Yodi – I favor waiting on the Downgrade Police.  Barrons agrees with me:

    The market is just STUFFED with stocks like this that are way up for no rational reason and then, when bad news hits, they leap towards a more reasonable price before people even have a chance to do anything about it.  All of the buyers of the past 3 months who bought the stock over $66 have now had their gains (if any) erased in a single day.  When stocks give up 90 days of gains in a single day like this – you really have to be concerned about how much of a bubble the whole market is in!  


  29. Sorry, forgot to continue that point.  This is what I mean by bag-holders.  The stock is pumped up on unrealistic expectations (as many, many are right now) and more and more retail holders come in while all the institutional guys (like Yodi), who came in at $40 are TRILLED to get out at $60+.  That's why you see a chart of Retailers coming in while Institutions are getting out.  They pump up these stocks SO they can get out because it takes a hell of a lot of Retailers to take over the massive amount of Institutional shares.

    As with many investing scams, Retail People can't see it, even if it's right in front of their face, because the time-frames they operate in are minutes, hours and MAYBE days – while the institutions plan in months, quarters and years.  

    These guys aren't selling at $60 and planning on seeing the stock head to $120 before they get back in.  They sell at $60 because they expect to get back in at $50 (using one stock as a whole market example).  Stocks go in cycles, professional traders know that and they know this cycle is very stretched and they've known it for a long time and they've been cashing out and the volumes have been dropping yet the Cramers of the World keep telling you to BUYBUYUBY and ignore the bad news – if Rupert Murdoch even bothers to print or broadcast it.  

    Anyway, I don't want to be Chicken Little, it's not that the sky IS falling – I just need you to stay aware that the sky, once in a while, does fall and, if it does – you'd better be ready!  


  30. Dollar still in the 82.50/82.60 resistance zone. Up today as Ukraine is taking a toll on the Euro.


  31. Phil / GLL
    Thanks for the explanatory.
    Can you repeat the GLL play – I can't seem to find it //

    bullish trade idea by shorting GLL (ultra-short gold) at $87.59


  32. Money changing check out TZA 6.5 million while IWM 7.8 million shares, now that is some way out there shift! Guess which is but and sell?


  33. There we go buy becomes but.


  34. WSM I hear you but 11% drop should give a counter reaction and that is what I am counting on as normal all sheep are running for the cliff. Blood on the street.



  35. But as usual in these situation I don't bet the farm this is a play where you enter a moderate bet. 


  36. Oil is too funny today, down to $93.85 and now rocketing back to $94.60. Gasoline much more relaxing (/RB), just stopped at $2.76 for a $480 per contract gain.  

    Thanks Akad.  

    TZA/Shadow – Must be our new play….

    Nat gas/Shadow – Ukraine makes Nat gas pop, not logical but it does.

    Sheep/Yodi – Yes but the tide is turning too (maybe).


  37. Phil Natural gas

    OK Ukraine pops gas didn't notice that change or when but check how the gas inventory report popped oil! 


  38. Nat gas inventories were uneventful, this move is all about Ukraine tensions:

     

  39. Well yesterday, after my question, I took my Margin Requirements down from 20% of total account value down to 12% using portfolio margin at IB.  

    Portfolio Margin is really tricky.  It's great to use when everything is going right, but it doesn't reflect you're true risk.  Since IB is giving me 5.8x on buying power, you can get into a sticky situation very fast.

    I wish I could run both RegT margin requirement reports, as that at least will keep you out of trouble.


  40. EZCH


  41. sn0gr00ve – Please keep in mind that every strategy works UNTIL it does not! ALWAYS have an exit plan in place (maybe even written down in a journal), because when things get dicey you must be able to do the right thing quickly. 

    Taking a small hit to the portfolio, but living to fight another day (by being able to stay in the game) is what really matters long term.

    Above all, if any position you have on makes you start feeling queasy, it might be the time to listen to that “inner voice” that is telling you to DO SOMETHING!!!


  42. Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Survey

    11:02 AM ET


  43. FuelCell makes headway in carbon capture project

    11:01 AM ET · FCEL

    • FuelCell Energy (FCEL -1.2%) is making progress in stage three of its carbon capture project, which separates carbon dioxide from emissions of coal-fired power plants.
    • The company was awarded the contract from the Department of Energy in 2011, and has received $1.2M from the government to fund this stage of the project.
    • Study findings have so far shown that the fuel cell stack capture system is more effective than current systems in place because it not only captures CO2 emissions from power plants but it also produces additional power.
    • FuelCell believes the new system could meet the DOE’s carbon capture cost goal of $40 per ton for commercial applications.


  44. On the hour

    11:00 AM ET

    • Dow -0.34%.
    • 10-yr +0.12%.
    • Euro -0.14% vs. dollar.
    • Crude +0.65% to $94.49.
    • Gold +0.52% to $1,290.10.


  45. Hanwha gains; guidance overshadows soft Q2 shipments

    10:55 AM ET · HSOL

    • Hanwha (HSOL +4%) shipped 339.5MW worth of solar modules in Q2, +4.9% Q/Q and +5.7% Y/Y, but below guidance of 350MW-370MW. However, the company expects shipments to rise to 400MW in Q3, and is reiterating full-year guidance of 1.5GW-1.6GW.
    • Q2 gross margin was 9.5%, down from Q1′s 13.9% but up from 5.5% a year ago. ASP was RMB4.17/watt ($0.67/watt) vs. RMB4.27/watt in Q1 and RMB4.03/watt a year ago.
    • Lower EU sales are blamed for the Q/Q margin and ASP declines. Hanwha asserts it sees plenty of room to improve margins by lowering manufacturing costs.
    • Japan (a high-ASP market) made up 53% of Q2 shipments vs. 51% in Q1. The U.S. accounted for 11%, the U.K. and Korea 9% apiece, Canada 7%, and China 6%.
    • Hanwha ended Q2 with $158.2M in cash, $470.5M in short-term borrowings, and $261M in long-term debt.
    • Q2 results, PR


  46. Still $90B to be made in Marcellus shale, report says

    10:58 AM ET · CHK

    • The Marcellus region is now the world’s biggest natural gas shale play, and there’s still $90B to be made by tapping the area’s reserves, according to a study by Wood Mackenzie.
    • The energy consultant predicts that the top 20 operators in the Marcellus will earn nearly $86B over the life of the play after the costs of reaching the reserves; for comparison, it estimates ~$118B to be made by extracting the resources in North Dakota’s Bakken region, but most production there is higher-priced oil.
    • Major Marcellus shale producers include CHK, RRC, RDS.A, RDS.B, TLM, APC, ATLS, COG, CVX, CNX, EQT, EOG, XOM, WPX, XCO, CRZO, SWN, AR.


  47. Discover feels the love from consumers

    10:40 AM ET · DFS

    • Discover (DFS -0.5%) now ties with American Express for the highest customer-satisfaction ranking by cardholders, according to J.D. Power. It’s the first time ever Discover has taken the top spot – it’s come in 2nd to AmEx ever year since the survey began in 2007.
    • Behind Discover’s big move, says J.D. Power’s Jim Miller, are its efforts to improve customer service both over the phone and online, and TV viewers are certainly aware of the large volume of Discover commercials emphasizing the friendliness of its people.
    • Another long-time issue – that Discover’s cards aren’t accepted as widely as Visa and MasterCard – is fading, with the number of U.S. locations taking Discover up 24% since 2009 vs. 15% for Visa and MC.


  48. aka // thanks


  49. Nevada reports gaming revenue totals

    10:40 AM ET · CZR

    • Gaming revenue for Las Vegas Strip casinos was up 4.8% for the fiscal year which ended June 30, according to the most recent data released by the Nevada Gaming Control Board.
    • The casino revenue tally for July to start the new fiscal year was up 0.65% to $931M (statewide).
    • Related stocks: CZR, LVS, WYNN, MGM.
    • Related ETF: BJK


  50. Pending Home Sales at 11-month high

    10:23 AM ET · ITB

    • July’s NAR Pending Home Sales Index of 105.9 is up 3.3% from June and 2.1% below last year.
    • This is the highest index level in 11 months due to favorable housing conditions and lower interest rate.
    • NAR’s Larry Yun expects existing home sales to decline 2.1% to 4.98M.
    • ITB -0.8%, XHB -1.5%
    • Full report


  51. PT boosts for Tiffany following strong earnings

    10:23 AM ET · TIF

    • Wall Street firms are taking a favorable view of Tiffany (TIF) following the retailer’s Q2 report.
    • Credit Suisse backs its Outperform rating and takes its price target up to $112.
    • Telsey Advisory Group has a PT of $116 on the stock.
    • KeyCorp is a tad more conservative with a PT of $112.


  52. OTIV jumps on iPhone NFC report; NXPI near breakeven

    10:21 AM ET · OTIV

    • NFC reader vendor On Track Innovations (OTIV +7.8%) is up sharply following a Wired report stating the iPhone 6 will feature an NFC radio and support a new mobile payments platform.
    • VentureBeat and others have already reported the iPhone 6 will support NFC. Likewise, there have been multiple reports stating Apple is prepping a mobile payments service, and Tim Cook has hinted payments are an area of interest for his company.
    • Top NFC chip supplier NXP (NXPI -0.2%) might also benefit if the iPhone 6 supports NFC. While many Android OEMs have embraced the technology, Apple has remained a holdout, and (with early NFC-based payments platforms seeing limited uptake) has even questioned NFC’s practical value.


  53. Treasury yields continue unexpected 2014 slide

    10:20 AM ET · TLT

    • A series of strong economic reports (Q2 GDP, jobless claims, home sales) is failing to halt the decline in the 10-year Treasury yield, which slips another four basis points to 2.32%. The German 10-year Bund yield is lower by two basis points to 0.89%.
    • At issue today is Ukraine’s assertion the Russian military has invaded the country. “It’s more overt now,” says a senior NATO military officer, and NATO reports “well over” 1K Russian troops are inside Ukraine, with another 20K just across the border in Russia.
    • TLT +0.75%, TBT -1.5%
    • ETFs: TBT, TLT, TMV, TBF, EDV, TMF, TTT, ZROZ, SBND, TLH, DLBS, VGLT, UBT, TLO, TENZ, LBND, TYBS, DLBL


  54. re: /CL, I understand that Brent is now in a contango, Nov contract selling about $.70 higher than Oct.  /CL still in backwardation, but spread lying a lot flatter than before.  Seems the NYMEX guys are trying it today long, but in context of previous months it looks sort of feeble.  I guess there's about 25% less open interest in oil futures recently compared to the norm, looks like sort of flat or bearish conditions for oil.

    Hope you've all been well recently, I've been around but busy with regular job, also trying the "Rothstein" approach I guess, watching carefully, researching every day, but actually doing very little.  scottmi it looks like we could have rode that UNP for another cycle :)


  55. Amgen cholesterol-lowering therapeutic candidate succeeds in Phase 3 trial

    10:09 AM ET · AMGN

    • In a Phase 3 clinical trial conducted in Japan (Yukawa-2 study), Amgen’s (AMGN +0.9%) PCSK9 inhibitor evolocumab, in combination with statin therapy, met its two co-primary endpoints: the percent reduction from baseline in low-density lipoprotein cholesterol (LDL-C) at week 12 and the mean percent reduction in LDL-C at weeks 10 and 12. The percent reduction in LDL-C was clinically meaningful, statistically significant and consistent with results seen in the Phase 2 Yukawa trial comparing evolocumab to placebo.
    • Evolocumab is a mAb that inhibits proprotein convertase subtilis/kexin type 9, a protein that reduces the liver’s ability to remover LDL-C from the blood.
    • The study results will be presented at a future medical conference and for publication.
    • The company also announced that it submitted a BLA to the FDA for evolocumab for the treatment of high cholesterol.


  56. Could Timmy’s play in the U.S.?

    10:09 AM ET · THI

    • The Tim Horton’s (THI +0.9%) chain has a long and culturally-relevant history in Canada where its 3.6K locations still generate solid sales growth.
    • The story is different in the U.S. as the 860 TH units aren’t spread out enough for the brand to be nationally-recognized and the company’s hockey roots don’t have the same significance to consumers.
    • Wendy’s had difficulty gaining U.S. traction with the chain when it owned it, and since then Dunkin’ Donuts (NASDAQ:DNKN) and Starbucks (NASDAQ:SBUX) have expanded rapidly, leaving analysts questioning what tricks Burger King Worldwide (BKW +3.5%) has up its sleeves.


  57. 30-year mortgage rates remain at 10-month low 4.1%

    10:08 AM ET

    • The average rate for a 30-year fixed-rate mortgage remained unchanged at 4.10%, the lowest rate since late October, according to the latest weekly survey from Freddie Mac.
    • The average rate for a 15-year fixed-rate mortgage rose to 3.25% in the latest week from 3.23% in the prior week.
    • A prior ago, the 30- and 15-year rates averaged a respective 4.51% and 3.54%.


  58. Capstone closes its second large deal this week

    10:04 AM ET · CPST

    • Capstone Turbine (CPST) has booked its second large order this week, this time for fifty C65 microturbines with integrated heat exchangers.
    • The order was placed by the Optimal Group, a leading provider of cogeneration and trigeneration energy solutions in Australia, and will be used as the foundation of their new rental fleet.


  59. Pending Home Sales +3.3% to 105.9

    10:00 AM ET


  60. Gulf Keystone to return staff to Kurdistan as threat eases

    09:58 AM ET · GUKYF

    • Gulf Keystone Petroleum (OTCPK:GUKYF, OTCQX:GFKSY) says it is sending staff back to Iraqi Kurdistan after U.S. airstrikes eased the threat from Islamic State militants that prompted a mass evacuation of expatriate oil workers three weeks ago.
    • Gulf Keystone says it plans to nearly double production in Kurdistan to 40K bbl/day from 22K by the end of the year; it has a 75% stake in the Shaikan oil field, one of the largest in the Kurdish region.
    • The oil explorer says Weatherford International (NYSE:WFT), its partner in the area, is sending personnel back to rigs in the region today or tomorrow.


  61. Slight dip in August U.S. auto sales forecast

    09:42 AM ET · GM

    • Kelley Blue Book forecasts U.S. auto sales will fall 1% in August to 1.49M units.
    • The decline is attributable to a difference in selling days during the period compared to last August.
    • All segments are expected to see lower sales totals except for compact SUV/crossover which is tapped for a 6.2% gain.
    • KBB sales forecast by manufacturer: General Motors (NYSE:GM) -1.0% to 273K; Toyota (NYSE:TM) -4.6% to 221K; Ford (NYSE:F) -1.5% to 217K; Chrysler (OTCPK:FIATY) +11.1% to 184K; Honda (NYSE:HMC) -8.1% to 153K; Nissan (OTCPK:NSANY) +1.2% to 122K; Hyundai (OTC:HYMLF) -1% to 117K; Volkswagen (OTCQX:VLKAY) -11.6% to 51K.


  62. At the open

    09:31 AM ET

    • Dow -0.43% to 17,048.80. S&P -0.38% to 1,992.60. Nasdaq -0.38% to 4,552.28.
    • Treasurys: 30-year +0.38%. 10-yr +0.17%. 5-yr +0.09%.
    • Commodities: Crude +0.67% to $94.51. Gold +0.69% to $1,292.20.
    • Currencies: Euro +0.67% vs. dollar. Yen +0.91%. Pound +0.38%.


  63. Phil // GLL
    I assume you meant the Jan15s ?

     

    2016 $87/77 bear put spread for $4.30 and those can be offset with short ABX 2016 $17 puts at $2 for net $2.30 on the $10 spread.


  64. Fresh round of pilots from Amazon

    09:29 AM ET · AMZN

    • Amazon (NASDAQ:AMZN) releases five new shows to Amazon Prime Instant Video featuring some well-known actors and actresses.
    • Three comedies – The Cosmopolitans, Really, and Red Oaks – are available for streaming along with dramas Hand of God and Hysteria.
    • Early reviews have been favorable for the most part.
    • Per the usual Amazon formula, only pilots have been developed for the shows until user input and data is analyzed.


  65. GT Advanced -2.5% on valuation-driven RJ downgrade

    09:22 AM ET · GTAT

    • Raymond James’ Pavel Molchanov: “We are downgrading GT from Market Perform to Underperform, following the stock’s exceptionally strong YTD gain of 113%.”
    • Molchanov’s view on GT Advanced’s (NASDAQ:GTAT) Apple partnership and solar opportunities hasn’t changed, but he also has “a hard time seeing incremental news-flow that would support much upside in the stock,” and considers its valuation “quite pricey,” even when based on 2016 estimates.
    • GT currently trades at 2.2x 2015E sales. CLSA cut shares to Underperform last week. Piper launched coverage at Overweight earlier this week.


  66. Box office debate: Secular decline or smashing 2015 on tap?

    08:59 AM ET · CKEC

    • Cowen Research analyst Doug Creutz thinks the soft summer box office season this year is evidence of a secular decline in domestic attendance as viewing habits evolve.
    • The analysis runs counter to the line of thought of some media analysts who think a weak and uninspiring summer slate is the culprit.
    • Creutz points out that the number of summer releases is in-line with historical averages, while box office bulls note tent-poles are spread out throughout the year more than in the past making the summer compare tougher.
    • On tap in 2015: Blockbuster releases next year include Star Wars: Episode VII (Lucasfilm), Avengers: Age of Ultron (Marvel), Fifty Shades of Grey (Universal), The Hunger Games: Mockingjay Part 2 (Lionsgate), The Good Dinosaur (Walt Disney Pictures), Bond 24 (Columbia).
    • Related stocks: CKEC, CNK, RGC, MCS, RDI, AMC, LGF, SNE, CMCSA, DIS, VIA, VIAB, IMAX.


  67. Frontline to considering financing alternatives to repay convertible bond loan

    08:56 AM ET · FRO

    • Frontline (NYSE:FRO) -6.2% premarket after posting another quarter of losses and declining revenue, while saying it is in a “challenging situation” with $1.03B in debt and lease obligations as of June 30.
    • Daily time charter equivalents for its VLCCs and suezmaxes posted big declines in Q2 at $13,900 and $12,400 respectively, down from $32,700 and $27,700 in Q1.
    • Says it is considering various financing alternatives such as raising equity or selling assets, establish new loans or refinance existing arrangements to raise sufficient cash to repay a $190M convertible bond loan due in April 2015, and “a full restructuring of the company, including lease obligations and debt agreements might be the only alternative.”
    • Expects improved operating results in Q3 due to “positive developments” in the tanker market.


  68. Q2 corporate profits up 6%

    08:32 AM ET


  69. Initial Jobless Claims

    08:31 AM ET

    • Initial Jobless Claims: -1K to 298K vs. 300K consensus, 299K prior (revised from 298K).
    • Continuing Claims +25K to 2.53M vs. 2.51M consensus.


  70. JPMorgan confirms cyberattack, sees no unusual fraud

    08:22 AM ET · JPM

    • “Companies of our size unfortunately experience cyberattacks nearly every day,” says JPMorgan (NYSE:JPM) spokesperson Trish Wexler. The bank isn’t seeing anything unusual, but is working closely with law enforcement to determine the scope of the breach and anyone impacted by it.
    • Previously: Feds probe Russian tie to JPMorgan hacking
    • Shares -0.6% premarket


  71. Cnooc’s H1 profit slips as higher costs ate into revenues

    08:18 AM ET · CEO

    • Cnooc (NYSE:CEO) says H1 net profit fell 2.3% Y/Y as higher spending and little-changed average oil prices undercut an increase in oil and gas production.
    • Still, H1 net income was a better than expected 33.6B yuan ($5.47B); revenues were flat Y/Y at 138.8B yuan, while oil and gas sales rose 5.7% to 117.1B yuan.
    • Difficulties in cost control “should not be underestimated,” CEO says, adding that it sees uncertainties and challenges in H2.
    • H1 production rose 6.8% Y/Y to 211.6M boe, with Canadian unit Nexen contributing 36.3M boe; CEO expects full-year production to reach 422M-435M boe, a 5.6% Y/Y increase.


  72. Lululemon loses another bull call

    08:14 AM ET · LULU

    • D.A. Davidson cuts its rating on Lululemon (NASDAQ:LULU) to Neutral from Buy.
    • The investment firm lowers its price target on the athletic apparel retailer to $44.
    • A majority of Wall Street analysts now have a Neutral/Hold stance on Lululemon.
    • Shares of LULU are flat in premarket action.


  73. More on Abercrombie & Fitch’s Q2

    08:09 AM ET · ANF

    • Abercrombie & Fitch (NYSE:ANF) managed to top Q2 earnings estimate by keeping a tight lid on costs.
    • The retailer cut marketing, general and administrative expenses by 6%, while expenses for stores and distribution expense were trimmed by 10%.
    • Comp sales by brand: Abercrombie & Fitch -1%; Abercrombie Kids -6%; Hollister -10%.
    • Guidance for comp sales for the full year is for a decline at a mid-single-digit rate, although a “modest” improvement has been seen at stores since the back-to-school season started.
    • ANF -5.3% premarket


  74. Final bank liquidity rule could sting muni market

    08:04 AM ET · WFC

    • Maybe not wanting competition for federal government debt, U.S. regulators are set to approve a final liquidity rule next week reportedly excluding municipal bonds from being among banks’ high-quality, highly liquid assets. Treasurys and balances held at the Fed, of course, would be allowed.
    • Wells Fargo (NYSE:WFC) – with $47.3B – is the largest holder of municipals among the four largest U.S. banks. It hasn’t said how much of that amount is included in its liquidity tally, but did say it was compliant with the international rule and awaiting the final U.S. version.
    • Both banks and local governments had naturally argued to include munis in the final rule. “[This] will almost certainly decrease liquidity in asset markets disfavored by the rule,” says ABA President Frank Keating.
    • Muni ETFs: MUB, PZA, TFI, XMPT, PRB, PVI, VRD, RVNU, FMB
    • Financial sector ETFs: XLF, FAS, FAZ, UYG, VFH, IYF, SEF, IYG, FXO, FNCL, FINU, RWW, RYF, FINZ


  75. PetroChina H1 net profit rises 4%, helped by fuel price reforms

    08:03 AM ET · PTR

    • PetroChina (NYSE:PTR) says its H1 net profit rose 4% Y/Y as losses at its refining and chemical businesses narrowed after fuel pricing reforms last year; for the quarter, profit rose ~15% Y/Y to $33.9B yuan ($5.5B), matching expectations.
    • However, H1 operating profit from PTR’s natural gas and pipeline business fell 81% Y/Y to 4.1B yuan, partly because PTR needed to procure expensive natural gas imports to meet rising demand; PTR has lost billions of dollars from selling imported natural gas at deep discounts in recent years.
    • Analysts expect PTR to report stronger H2 results thanks to a natural gas price increase and potential gains from asset sales.


  76. ~~?Discover (DFS -0.5%) now ties with American Express for the highest customer-satisfaction ranking by cardholders

    They both have the same problem, they charge the merchants more than Master card or Visa, so they are both less useful. Most merchants don't take either.


  77. Phil

    Where do we kept the buy list  ?

    Thanks


  78. SILLY QUESTION

    HOW DOES TIM HORTONS STACK UP TO DUNKIN DONUTS


  79. Wombat / GLL

    No, they are the April's


  80. IN TERMS OF FOOD AND COFFEE !


  81. pwright – yeah you just never know, but had to stick to the plan. I've kept watching but not much premium to sell on the covers so haven't been compelled to get back in.. and not with this market the way it is.. i'm good and wary right now!


  82. Angelcur – Tims far better, flavor & freshness


  83. aka // thanks again.


  84. PM/Burr – I just like to use it as it gives me the ability to put silly things, like short AAPL 2016 $75.71 puts, that are $2.95 and down $7 into the "ignore" pile, rather than feel the need to take it off the table to free up margin.  In other words, when we first do the trade, I assume it's going to be assigned and use a normal allocation block but, after a while, I get comfortable enough to just push it to the LLTP (even longer and less touch) and consider the entire allocation block freed up again.  Make sense?  

    EZCH/Albo – Very nice!

    Submitted on 2014/04/30 at 2:07 pm

    EZCH/Albo – It's a small, fabless semi, which means they are only as good as their last contract.  I think the issue with them is they were priced for really big growth with NP-5 that didn't pan out.  If they hit current projections, the p/e is 20 at $24 – I don't really see what would take them to $36 in a conservative market, which is what is likely to lie ahead.  I don't know enough about what others are working on in the network processor market to say whether EZCH has a defendable advantage – they do seem to be ahead of the game for non-embedded chips but serious OEM's will stick to their own solutions.  

    They're not likely to have a terrible Q so you can sell EZCH Jan $20 puts for $1.75 for a cheap entry and, if you want to be aggressive, you can add the $25/30 bull call spread for about the same and you make $5 if they pop or you buy them for 20% off for the long haul.

    That one is another good example of how we can see VALUE long before the price settles down.  As StJ noted yesterday, you can never expect to time perfect bottoms but our entry system allows us to take a poke at a position once it hits a PRICE we feel is below the true VALUE and, after that, all we have to do is wait for the rest of the market to wise up (sometimes it takes a while…).  

    Oil back down to $94.30.  Gyrating like wild as it tries to hold this support:

    USO WEEKLY

    Open Interest/Pwritght – Well we like to watch the front 4 months and over 700,000 is generally downward pressure – just a bit over at the moment, not as bad as last month but December could become a problem as over 350K in a front month can lead to big sell-offs and we have two months of rolls to go:

    Click for
    Chart
    Current Session Prior Day Opt's
    Open High Low Last Time Set Chg Vol Set Op Int
    Oct'14 93.75 94.71 93.45 94.43 11:35
    Aug 28


    -

    0.55 140636 93.88 288133 Call Put
    Nov'14 93.19 94.10 92.99 93.80 11:35
    Aug 28


    -

    0.46 44279 93.34 153689 Call Put
    Dec'14 92.90 93.73 92.75 93.38 11:35
    Aug 28


    -

    0.32 38578 93.06 222363 Call Put
    Jan'15 92.83 93.56 92.68 93.18 11:35
    Aug 28


    -

    0.23 9413 92.95 81345 Call Put

    Good point Diamond.  

    GLL/Wombat – Actually it was April.  It's that thing I do on TOS where I go to the last series and assume it's 2016.

    Buy List/QC – Under the Virtual Portfolios tab, a few entries down.  New ideas aren't up, I'm still looking and will update over weekend.  No hurry in a weakish market but we are holding up well so far.  

    THI/Angel – Wendy's already tried and failed to make it work in the US, I think BKW is on drugs with this purchase. What, they can't figure out how to make donuts and coffee without paying $11Bn for a company that has made $400M a year for the past 3 years with no growth at all?  That's 27x earnings.  BKW has 14,000 stores and they'd still have to buy equipment and staff it so it's paying $785,000 per store for the THI brand but BKW's total market cap is $11Bn (and that's after popping) – they're only valued at $785,000 per store themselves.

    So, would BK be better off opening 14,000 more restaurants (MCD has 35,000) or adding coffee and donuts to the ones they have for the same price?  


  85. Embedded image permalink

    “It’s hard to give an AR away.” Assault-rifle sales stop in their tracks

    OPEC oil output rises in August as Libyan recovery holds

    UPDATE 2-Brent hovers below $103 as ample supply weighs

    Dow and S&P Fibonacci Lines (assuming this is a top):


  86. Phil – Buy List

    Are the words around the charts, words that you just wrote in the last few days, or are they copies of what was posted a while ago?  

    Just getting a feel for how current the info is.  Thanks.


  87. BKW/ Phil … sounds like you getting closer to making the bearish naked call play official with the cover call spread…:)


  88. PHIL

    ~~?Discover (DFS -0.5%) now ties with American Express for the highest customer-satisfaction ranking by cardholders

    Now all we need is for the cops to get rid of them, then get rid of all of them, they serve no purpose, designed as machine guns, min size, and weight. In the hands of cops all they add is fear, and they do scare the daylights out of people.


  89. Jerry Seinfeld and other comedians talking about their parents.  And money.  And donuts.  Eating in general.  Marriage – seems like a good show, I never got a chance to watch it.  

    Words/Burr – They're from Corey.  I'm pretty sure he made the charts this morning.  

    BKW/DM – Hard to short in a relentlessly up market but yes, I think this valuation is silly for them.  I think I'm happy with the play we have (still gettable):

    August 25th, 2014 at 12:34 pm | (Unlocked) | Permalink 

    BKW/Pfeh – $10Bn for THI?  They were  $5Bn last year, what have the done to earn another $5Bn in value?  I guess it's all about the tax inversion for BKW but they will get such backlash for this that I doubt it will go through so I'd lean towards shorting THI initially but BKW popped 20% today as well so, couple that with the overpaying and the fact the deal is likely to fail and that means we can sell 5 BKW Jan $30 calls for $3.25 ($1,625) and buy 4 April $30/34 bull call spreads for $2 ($800) for an $800 credit per set.  BKW is at $32.50 now, up from $27 yesterday so it would take another $5 pop before you get in real trouble on the trade.  

    Guns/Shadow – Not sure what one has to do with the other there but yes, assuming you mean assault weapons and not black people – I'm all for getting rid of them.  wink


  90. Buy List/Burr – Sorry, I thought you meant charts above.  On the Buy List, they are all old (except the ones I'll add this weekend).  Each one should have a date at the beginning of the entry. 


  91. Phil Is that a bad joke? I am in favor of move citizens carrying guns, do need to stop the quacks from getting them. Guess who trains most for carry permits? Cops!!! Problem is they love the power trip and tend not to see some of the seekers are wacko.


  92. So, for example at the end of yesterdays post.  There were words around the charts of LE and SHLD.  Did you just write them, or copy them from a past post?  


  93. Phil – I was promised Dow 36,000 … stop raining on my parade! ;-)


  94. diamond

    No rain and this is what I will promise, S&P and RUT will meet at 3,600 the same day. So put 100% in the lager. Happy days!


  95. http://mam.econoday.com/byshoweventfull.asp?fid=461512&cust=mam&year=2014&lid=0&prev=/byweek.asp#top

    Now the second red slowdown and those blue eastern numbers are ?


  96. Joke/Shadow – Yes, that's what the smiley face means.  The way you phrased it, it was hard to tell what you meant but I assumed it was the guns.  

    Sure, Give a 9-Year-Old an Uzi: Four Blunt PointsSpeaking of that Uzi-packing 9 year-old, here's the story of what happened:

    Wait, a 9-year-old can get her hands on an Uzi? Yes. In most places, it’s legal for children under adult supervision to fire guns. The operator of the Arizona range permitted kids as young as 8 to shoot. The little girl in this case was brought to the range by her parents. Instructor Charles Vacca can be seen on the video released by police eagerly explaining to the youngster how to hold and point the Uzi, a potent weapon originally made for the Israeli military. After the girl fired a single round in semiautomatic mode, Vacca switched the gun to fully automatic and urged her to let loose. A fully automatic weapon, referred to as a machine gun, spews rounds continuously as long as the trigger is depressed. The Uzi’s recoil apparently proved too much for the girl in Arizona, causing the barrel to drift up and to her left, where Vacca was standing close by.

    So you see folks, no reason to get upset or change any laws, we just need to make sure young children have the proper upper body strength before handing them automatic assault weapons – as our founding fathers intended! 

    Scary experiment with kids and guns – important for gun owners to know. 

    Yesterday/Burr – No, those were all my live comments, as were the other Buy List Candidates yesterday:

    Dow 36,000/Diamond – Once inflation kicks in, no problem.  


  97. stjean the buck is back in your resistance. Breakout this time?


  98. I heard a program this morning in the car, and they played a recording from  NRA media supporting concealed carry for blind people!! 


  99. That's only fair, ZZ – after all, they can't see your guns either!  cheeky


  100. GES/Phil – another clothing retailer takes a hit, but XRT recovers smartly. Still that auto component?


  101. Phil

    I knew you were joking but you forgot eliminating blacks is best unsaid. BTW I grew up in a house with no guns, my father that actually shot and killed many in WWII insisted  and although he really like the game I fed him dislikes me having them still.


  102. MCD/Phil – any new long to do with them here?



  103. RIG – a sizeable chunk of Feb $34 puts sold today..


  104. Q2 real GDP was revised up to a 4.2% annual rate from 4.0% in the advance estimate, and above the consensus of 3.8% (E50). The main drivers were upward revisions to nonresidential fixed investment (capex) and net exports, partly
    offset by a downward revision to inventory investment. We expect the economy to grow close to a 3.0% annual rate
    in 2H, bringing the total for 2014 to around 2.0%.


  105. XRT/Scott – I think pump ahead of dump.  Seems so unsustainable.  Speaking of clothing, Juicy Couture was clearing out of our local mall.  I think there's just too many of these things to survive, probably because, 10 years ago, we were prosperous and willing to indulge our kids but now money is tight and it just doesn't make as much sense to fill closets with clothes they either grow out of or go out of fashion by next year anyway.  Our school went to uniforms, mostly because it wasn't fair to the poor parents to have to try to keep up with what the other kids were buying.  Doesn't really fix the problem – they still accessorize, etc and then there are parties and weekends, but better than forcing people to come up with a month's worth of outfits for school.  

    Unsaid/Shadow – Not when a joke is hanging right there!  

    MCD/Scott – No thanks, not cheap enough. $85 would get me excited, not $95.  

    Here you go Diamond:

    And my favorite:

    RIG/Scott – Protection or someone short selling?  

    2%/Angel – Why does that not seem like an impressive number to me?


  106. SAME HORRID THING HAPPENED AT A SHOOTING RANGE IN CT..10 YEAR OLD BOY BLEW HIS HEAD OFF WITH AN UZI.

    II HOLD THE PARENTS 99% RESPONSIBLE..IDIOTIC IN THE EXTREME..THAT WEAPON IS

    AMAZING AND DEADLY AND REQUIRES HOURS OF USE AND TRAINING TO OPTIMIZE. LOOK AT

    THE GIRLS WEIGHT ON HER REAR FOOT WHAT A MONUMENTAL TRAGEDY.

    http://www.jrn.com/ktnv/news/Tragic-Uzi-death-isnt-the-first-of-its-kind-Connecticut-boy-killed-in-2008-272981841.html


  107. Dangerous things, guns, no question or doubt about it…

    I like the quiz on this site:   http://a-human-right.com/


  108. Phil – :-)


  109. All about guns lets buy some gun stocks


  110. Phil – $SPX (1,997.55) and SPY (200.12) seem to be out of sync.


  111. Criminally negligent parents (like those of the girl at the range) happen. Should there be a license to have kids? I believe it is a question of ownership. Does "society" or the State -own- you? Can "they" (we) hold you (yes, "You") accountable before the fact? Is it necessary? What would be the social (and any other) costs of such a thing being implemented? 

    Interesting (and somewhat depressing imho) to see the very high rate of agreement here:

    http://www.debate.org/opinions/should-people-be-required-to-obtain-a-parenting-license-in-order-to-have-a-child


  112. SPY/Diamond – SPY is a bit of a sentiment thing during the day – seems like people still think we'll get a stick at the end of the day.  We're pretty flat other than the RUT, so the conditions are right for a run-up into the close.  

    Parenting license/Scott – I'm in favor!  

    Good old NRA – no sense of timing at all:

     

     

     

    Another V-Shaped Rally to New Highs, What’s Next? (Sassy Options)

    Who benefits from a stock-market boom? (Washington Postsee also Economic recovery favors the more-affluent who own stocks (Pew Research)

    Why Have U.S. Companies Become Such Skinflints? (LA Times

    In Corporations, It’s Owner-Take-All (Washington Post)

    4 Years Until The Next Recession? Not Likely

    Everyone's Fighting The Fed Now

    Home Prices Just Hit a 70-Month High. Now for the Bad News… (MarketWatch)

    Existing Home Sales Are Up, But New Home Sales Are Down (WonkBlog)

    China’s falling real-estate prices trigger protests, clashes

    Ukrainian Sergeant: 'This Is Now A War With Russia'

    California drivers brace for costly new gas tax. (videoCalifornians already pay the nation's second highest gas tax at 68 cents a gallon — and now it will go up again in January to pay for a first-in-the-nation climate change law.


  113. Re: Cash secured puts-- More fun to get scared then to lose money!! Thanks for the grim painting of down market scenarios. 

    I covered most of my CSP with cheap backstop long calls, so I can easily afford to buy any stock put to me, and still keep weaseling little bits of cash. 


  114. rather, cheap protective puts. 


  115. Good, that makes more sense.  cool



  116. The TZA 13/16 October Bull Call Spread is working nicely providing cushion on down day, except for abnormal Apple. What I don't get is Sept 12 apple 92 puts are going UP in price as apple goes up another 30 cents to $102.40…gamblers waiting for a dip? 


  117. Dollar / Shadow – Still in the resistance area. On a daily chart it looks like consolidation. Remember, a lot of that is geopolitical. Over 82.80 would be an interesting breakout and then we are looking at around 83.50 for the next confluence zone.


  118. snogroove / AAPL Puts

    On down days there is increased IV.  Higher IV = more expensive options.


  119. Been busy with my son today, but saw the gun stuff and wanted to share a personal experience that illustrates how dangerous they are and how easy to mess up. My Dad was a great man who accomplished much in his too brief 60 years. Was a mechanical and engineering savant and the Army sent him as one of first 500 GI s to mainland Japan after surrender to wire communications. He ran a manufacturing business in bad part of Philly and in the 70's was being burglarized repeatedly. (Later found to be alarm company employee) one night he was with me and one of my older brothers when a burglary in progress call came. He carried a handgun with him and he impulsively drove to the factory to catch the burglar. ( he was brave and impulsive as I said) he parked a block from the factory telling us to stay locked in the car. Before getting out he removed the clip to check how many bullets he had and BANG ! He forgot the one in the chamber. Fortunately he had it pointed away from us towards the door, but my hearing has never been the same. Point is that it's just too easy to make a fatal mistake. The car door was dead, thank Mom Nat, not one of his boys.  


  120. For AFTER HOURS--even if the market all of a sudden became boring ;-)

     

    zero said;

    That all "truth" is therefore a thing relative to our current base of knowledge and measurement abilities doesn't necessarily mean that it is false, but merely that it is our best guess based on the techniques of analysis and prior measurement that we presently possess.

     

    I disagree. Either something is 100% truth or it is false. You might 'believe' scientific facts to be true until proven false. But they were never true to begin with. It was a truth based on false evidence. 

     

     

    zero said;

    And for those who suggest that without "faith" there can be no "morality", this is nonsense.  There are many objective reasons why human existence works much better if there are consensual rules of conduct. You don't need to believe in spirits, genies or devils to understand that human collaboration is more productive than human conflict in most circumstances.  Most monkeys follow discernible social patterns of behavior, undoubtedly because of their adaptive value rather than their fear of "monkey hell."In fact I would suggest the opposite.  

    The idea of "gods" and "devils" were invented to help enforce [through fear]   certain rules and patterns of social interaction precisely in consequence of their adaptive value.  A noble lie, in other words, and not one that originated with Christianity, Judaism or Islam necessarily:

     

    Nobody said you can't be good or moral without faith. Still, how do you decide what 'consensual' rules are objectively moral? A justice system helps but I don't know if that necessarily defines morality (especially if you live in Iran or Iraq or Syria). I don't know about the spirits, devils, and genies. Do the monkeys make free will decisions in order to choose to do good or evil? Could it possibly be that certain rules were given to teach an objective morality to humanity?  If so, a person may be accountable for using his free will in order make moral decisions throughout his lifetime. Personally, I don't think any religion cornered the market on morality. All religions could help a person become better even if some of the beliefs within the religions are mutually exclusive. Also, a person could be moral and good even without faith. I think it should be determined based on one's actions not beliefs.

     

     

     

    Phil said;

    Jabob – I'm not trying to "win" anything here, i respect your beliefs yet I don't think it's too much of a leap of faith on my part to expect you to respect mine in turn.  As to the question of historic proof of subjective morality working anywhere – that would be you.  You are the proof and I am the proof and Obama is the proof and Putin is the proof.

     

    I highly respect your beliefs and that is why I asked what you meant by zealots corrupting everything. I don't know how Obama or Putin is a historic proof that subjective morality works or has worked in the past. With subjective morality what you may think is moral, Obama could say is immoral. There are homicide bombers who think they are moral. Jihadists think they are moral and we are infidels. History seems to have proven that subjective morality never has worked. I was wondering if you knew an example of when it has worked. 

     

     

    Phil said;

    Human beings in our form have been on this planet for 200,000 years and yet, withou rule books and without even written language for 190,000 of those years we still managed to learn to cooperate, working together for thousands of generations to make small improvements that gave each generation a slightly better life.  No one had to tell them to do it – it was simply the right thing to do. 

     

    Were the human beings 180k-200k years ago really the same as us? How do you know they didn't have a rule book? How do you know that there were human civilizations 200k years ago that worked together to make each generation better? 

     

     

     

     

    Phil said;

    Maybe we're not "born with sin", maybe we're born good and then are taught to be good or bad by Hillary's village?   Even if you go by biblical timing, man didnt have a rule book for a couple of thousand years – there's nothing in the Ten Commandments that any parent wouldn't tell their children.  I guess, at the time, it sounded better to say "because God said so and he's watching you all the time and here's a bunch of stories to illustrate what an ass-kicker he can be if you don't listen" than just "because I said so."  

     

    Maybe we are born good? Or maybe we are taught to be good by our parents and choose otherwise? How did man behave according to biblical timing before the rule book was given? Did they improve? How did mankind do after the other religions came into being? I don't think a parent would necessarily tell all of the 10 Commandments to their children. What if the parents are atheists? What if the rules were given to help people as opposed to creating fear? For example, follow these rules and you will live a more meaningful and pleasurable life. 

     

     

     

     

    So yes to rules but the problem with calling them "commandments" is that you open the door for other people to have their own Gods and their own rules and, if everyone thinks their God is the best God and everyone thinks the rules of the best rules, then you end up having a God-off and now we're all killing each other (and breaking one of the rules) in the names of our Gods 

    Where's the progress in that?

     

     

    I don't see any progress in people killing others because they don't believe in the same commandments or set of rules. I happened to really like your idea and was wondering how it could be accomplished with separation of Church and State. That is why I mentioned the 10 Commandments before. I think there are examples of cities being very upset with schools that had the 10 Commandments. Personally, I believe that we all need to be tolerant and accepting of others regardless of beliefs. I do believe radical Islam is scary. This is what I thought you meant originally when you mentioned zealots. I have always agreed with your claim that we spend WAY too much $$$ on our miltary. Now I am starting to wonder. So many groups calling for the destruction of anyone who isn't Muslim (infidels deserving of death).Makes you wonder what century we are living in.

     

     Where is the progress???


  121. sorry for the long post by accident


  122. Dividend Withholding Tax – sorry i cannot recall who mentioned recently that US investors are exempt from UK company dividend payment withholding tax … Do you know if this is reciprocated? Are UK investors exempt from dividend withholding taxes on their US stocks? Thanks


  123. All/ On the topic of selling Puts short. If you trade as I do NOT to own the stock, you better damn well set a protective stop. For me, all are 2016 Puts with a maximum loss of 1% of my portfolio of $500k. For downside protection, each sold put is 20% off the present quoted price of the equity. I also harvest profits when a LEAP Put has matured and shows a 50% profit. Unless the whole market crashes at once, you will be stopped out on a per position basis. Be reminded that Theta works in our favor.


  124. snogroove re: AAPL puts, another reason might be, iphone event on Sept 9, so AAPL may be volatile around that event.


  125. Phil

    I have Oct TZA 14/18 call spread that I bought some time ago for 1.35, offset with the sale of Oct TZA 14 puts for .90.  I'm not sure I understand how to manage this now, the long 14's are about 1.22 now, so I'm late for a roll but I offset with the puts so that puts my cost basis at .45.  Do I keep as is or roll down? roll out?


  126. JABO (I HOPE ITS PRONOUNCED WITH A J ) I CERTAINLY FORGIVE YOU.

    WE ARE ALL GETTING V PHILOSOPHICAL!  WE MUST FIND STUFF TO DO…ANYONE HAVE ANY GOOD JOKES/ 

    OR A RECORDING OF THE POLEMICS?


  127. Falling oil prices helping XRT hold up? A factor but maybe not THE main factor? :)


  128. A lawyer and The Pope die and go to heaven. As they arrive, they are greeted and brought to their heavenly estates. The Pope is led to a simple cottage, just large enough for him with a tiny garden. 

    The lawyer is brought to a sprawling estate with stables, many guest rooms, 3 pools, a building the size of a hangar filled with Ferraris. 

    The lawyer asks, "What is going on? The pope just got a little house…."

    "We never had a lawyer in heaven before, so we want to make a special effort."


  129. EXXI / Phil .. Do you think this is worth an entry .. Large pullback this year … Thanks


  130. I used to be pretty adamant about being secular. After a while I changed my attitude.

    1) Not everyone is smart enough to be an existential philosopher and analyze the level of certainty or uncertainty of their perceptions. 

    2) It's more important for religious people to be happy ( as long as they're peaceful) than it is for me to be "right."


  131. Netflix ponies up $2m per episode of The Blacklist • 3:04 PM

    Clark Schultz, SA News Editor

    Netflix (NFLX +0.3%) has signed a deal for the rights to the first season of The Blacklist for $2M per episode, reports Deadline.

    The amount is believed to be the largest VOD deal ever for an off-network TV series.

    The Blacklist  is distributed by Sony Pictures TV (NYSE:SNE).

    A weekend launch of the show on Netflix is possible.

    What to watch: The company is sticking with a strategy to pay more for exclusive first window rights – instead of signing joint syndication deals with other pay-TV operators – on its view the strategy helps propel subscriber growth


  132. phil/greg,  is there a trick to using the comment search feature on the wiki page.  i tried searching for comments by Phil on a particular stock by entering Phil in the user box and the stock ticker in the unnamed box all the way to the right.  I end up with all the comments by Phil.  is it my browser (firefox)? or something else?  TIA.


  133. Withholding Tax/DMulligan: That was me that posted. I don't know if the reciprocal  exemption is true. My 20 minute search didn't turn up anything really clear  for UK resident holding American stocks.

    May be a question your accountant can quickly answer.  

    Good luck.


  134. Quote of the day – so true!

    Martin Wolf, “Almost nothing in economics is more important than thinking through how companies should be managed and for what ends. Unfortunately, we have made a mess of this. That mess has a name: it is “shareholder value maximisation.”  (FT)


  135. The entire Martin Wolf article is here:

    http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/6aa87b9a-2d05-11e4-911b-00144feabdc0.html#axzz3BiUZaEtc

    Good stuff…

    I am not the first person to worry about the joint-stock company. Adam Smith, founder of modern economics, argued: “Negligence and profusion . . . must always prevail, more or less, in the management of the affairs of such a company.” His concern is over what we call the “agency problem” – the difficulty of monitoring management. Others complain that companies behave like psychopaths: a company aiming at maximising shareholder value might conclude it would be profitable – and so perhaps even its duty – to pollute the air and water if allowed to do so. It might also use its resources to obstruct an appropriate regulatory response to such (mis)behaviour.

    (cough) Koch brothers (cough)


  136. Thanks for trying Jbur .. Didnt mean for you to go to that effort… Just thought you might know "off the top of your head" as they say over here :)


  137. Maybe AMZN is not an e-commerce company:

    http://stratechery.com/2014/amazon-e-commerce-company/

    Regardless, the takeaway for me – and what should be the takeaway for all of Amazon’s investors – is that Amazon is not an e-commerce company. No more pointing at the fact that e-commerce is only 6% of U.S. retail, or that Amazon’s multi-sided network of merchants and customer base are the key factors in determining their future success. No, the company is going for something a whole lot bigger, even as their foundation is being slowly watered down by the same Internet that made Bezos feverish nearly 20 years ago.


  138. stjean

    Just remember in the early 2000s they created some mutual funds that invested solely in moral companies because things looked so bad. They lost money and I don't even know if they exist now.

    Good news may come forward as almost everything swings from one extreme to another.


  139. AMZN phone is a bust according to Consumer Reports, limitations.


  140. Looks like Obama will talk on Russia at 4PM or so


  141. AAPL/Sn0 – They are not linear.  There's a degree of supply and demand there as well as the changing volatility that changes the price of the options, not to mention the bid/ask spread.  Just worry about whether you are on or off track heading towards your goals.  

    And what JPH said.  

    Cool story, Craigs – its a wonder any of us survive all the little mistakes we make along the way.   

    Progress/Jabob – I think the world modernized around the people in the middle east and it made them feel like they were no longer part of our World and that, of course, made some people angry.  I think that the onset of cheap communications also kind of flung it in people's faces – especially the way we "promote" Capitalism and our version of a good life to others.  It's not so much fun to watch American commercials if all they advertise are lots of things you can't realistically have – it's like showing hot chicks to teenage boys.   Oh wait, we do that too…  Angry people often mob up and seek leaders who have "answers" and, when there is no wealth to be shared, leaders want power and, as ISIS is demonstrating, they then use that power to get Wealth.  This is nothing more than the mess we made by pressing all the psychological buttons for a couple of generations.  

    If you were watching all this from a tent on your goat farm and all you hear is a load of BS about how America helps everyone and spreads their democracy around the World etc. and nothing changes for your Grandfather's whole life and your father's whole life and your whole life and then you hear that America is sucking up the wealth of your country (oil) and using your people like slaves to work dangerous jobs for little pay to make them rich and that none of that money goes back to your local economy except to the criminal warlords who oppress you further – do you really think you're going to be waving our flag on the 4th of July?  

    Taxes/DM – Jbur was saying something about it recently.  I don't know what the facts were. 

    Stops/IHS – Good in theory.  Have you crash-tested it?  

    TZA/Jeff – Well, consider what you spent ($1.35) to be your insurance cost for that period.  You didn't need your insurance company (so far) and now the calls are down to $1.25 and, if you want to keep being insured, you need to buy some more time (ie roll).  The Jan $14s are $2.10 so it would cost you 0.85 to buy 3 more months of insurance.  

    Your running cost of insurance is cheaper than your entry cost and you still get paid the same $4 if an "accident" happens.  If not, then the short puts should expire worthless and that means your net is $1.35+0.85-.90 – $1.30 on the new hedge and then you can sell more short puts for $1 and, if you need to, you can roll the longs lower with that money or just let it cut your costs.  Those are the choices we make each month.  

    So, you laid out net .45 for the first round and now it's costing you 0.85 for another 3 months so your cost of insurance is about 0.30 per month and that means your longs better be gaining 0.60 per month (at least) for this to make sense.  If not, adjust!  

    Jokes/Angel – As requested:

    ...

    XRT/DM – Makes sense.  Lower oil means more discretionary income to spend.  Of course I picked the bear put spread so we WOULDN'T have to obsess over it… wink 

    EXXI/DM – From 8/23:

    Submitted on 2014/08/23 at 11:32 pm

    EXXI/Advill – Turns out Cramer has been pumping them all year and they still are down about 1/3 after being down 1/3 last year and 20% the year before that.  You would think that would make them zero but, luckily, it's diminishing cuts so $39 goes to $32 and $32 to $25 and $25 to $16.  Essentially, they spent a ton of money drilling their asses off and haven't really hit it yet – this is how E&P companies die.  

    Of course oil prices aren't in their favor even if their new wells do start producing and now they've used up all their tax write-offs while revenues and earnings are declining anyway.  This is a $1.5Bn company with $1.3Bn in debt that is paying out a $37M dividend – that doesn't make me like the stock, that makes me concerned that management/major investors (97% insider/Fund held) is more concerned with lining their pockets than strengthening the company's balance sheet which, by the way, had no cash left at the beginning of the year but now has $300M after borrowing $500M to start the year off.  Yeah – let's borrow more money to pay more dividends!  

    So, not the kind of company I like, especially with oil under $100 so it depends on how clever your friends are because this company looks like it's run by Bush (not once, not twice but 3 times (Harken, Spectrum and the aptly-named Arbusto) did GW Bush fail to find oil in Texas).  

    Religion/Sn0 – That's how I feel about my brother (or anyone who's religious).  It gives him comfort and makes him happy – what's wrong with that?  He always felt something was lacking in life and finding Jesus was a great thing for him.  I kind of envy people who can find comfort so easily, my Dad was very upset about dying (cancer) because he simply didn't believe in anything afterwords and he didn't feel he had done all he wanted in life at 65.  My Grandpa Max, on the other hand, was fairly religious, lived until 96 and was almost looking forward to dying as he had accomplished all he wanted to in life and was looking forward to getting back together with my Grandmother, who he used to talk to once in a while regardless of the fact she was dead. Every once in a while (usually when we're praying for the dead at funerals like last weekend), I point out to my Father how silly he must feel if he can hear me – since it means he was wrong about the afterlife – I look forward to hopefully giving him crap about it when I die and then we'll both laugh at my brother if we all end up in the same place!  That would be nice.  

    NFLX/Jabob – $2M?  What's that about $50M for the year?  It's a used show!  TV is crazy or maybe it's just NFLX.  I can't believe that Spader didn't even get nominated this year – I thought he was great in that show.  Now does this mean NBC CAN'T show re-runs?  That would be strange. 

    AAPL/Diamond – That's been a done deal for a couple of weeks – not much reaction to the stock.

    Wiki/Lunar – That was something Kwan was doing but he hasn't been around for a while and I don't think anyone else here knows how to code the Wiki, unfortunately. I'll pass it along to Greg. 


  142. yodi

    Obama talk at 4 and a little sell program kicks in. like yesterday no buyers, no liquidity, so bottom line is only hold fully hedged position.


  143. Wolfe/StJ – Very good point.  The market economy is ruining business worldwide.  It's set up so Wall Street can suck money out of the economy rather than have it be reinvested into growth.  It all started really going to hell when they started entertaining these ridiculous shareholder lawsuits.  Just sell your friggin' stock if you don't like the way the company is managed!  

    AMZN/StJ – What they are, after 20 years, is a company that does $75Bn in sales out of $3.5Tn (2%) vs WMT's $475Bn (13.5%) or COST $100Bn (2.5%).  They are not the be all and end all of retail, they are a strong niche player in the on-line space.  They'd BETTER figure out other ways to make money because they sure don't make much doing what they do now….

    Morality Funds/Shadow – Well any fund that doesn't take quality into account is ridiculous. That's why I hate "green funds", "sin funds" etc.  

    AMZN Phone/Shadow – Why am I not shocked?

    Russia/Yodi – Cool, WAR!!!  America – F Yeah!  

    Big last-second move up in S&P right into the bell but fell short anyway.  None of this matters now into the holiday weekend. 


  144. Yes the networks have Obama on.


  145. phil, i am happy to help code the wiki if you want.  what i am interested in is restoring the feature where a page can can be created for a particular stock--this used to exist and it used to work but seems broken now.  but the pages that already got created work well.  e.g, if you click on AAPL, all of your comments are gathered and shown in the page dynamically.


  146. YEAY Lunar! That would be awesome!


  147. DMulligan/Jbur – My understanding is that UK owners of US stocks get clobbered by a withholding tax of 15%.  Not sure where that comes from, maybe US35% – UK20% or something like that.


  148. Phil-Amen to your meeting up someplace. I had a NDE at 26 ^ saw everyone who had already passed over. It was an incredible experience & changed my life forever. Lost Father @ 17, Mom @ 20 so it was affirming in the least. Now I try to live with purpose helping, doing & giving as much as possible. I honor every ones beliefs as I believe there is truth in all the various religions since time began. Unfortunately religion has been used for good & evil for all the wrong reasons & that is not at all likely to change.


  149. Can Greg take some time to try and fix Search?  Maybe on a beta page or a beta tab or something?

    I think all we really need for it to do is:

    1)  Only search the "Phil" content and not all the other feeds

    2) Be able to use a filter like Author/Username so we could search just for your comments or anyone else's, for example StJ and VXX.

    3) Enable a sort by date.

    That would be a huge.  I think it was a goal when you're brother took over, right?


  150. I second the search request – I would like to be able to search for comments about a stock newest first!

    Thanks


  151. That's great lunar, you are totally hired!  I'll put you in touch with Greg.  It's all voodoo to me.  

    Amen is right, Pirate.  

    Search/Burr – All sounds good but apparently not easy to accomplish.  They are working on it. 


  152. Of course, I just put stjeanluc and VXX in the search box and got a list that can then be sorted by date – so it does kind of work – I just wish it were easier to read.  


  153. RTN/Phil – any opinion on the wehrmacht supplier? came up on a screen I ran for value ideas (based on weekly moving average crossover and other limits) but looks high in channel. Any observation on how tied to military action and rumors of war (i.e. Ukraine)?


  154. Phil – this little known appliance may help the search issue:

    Google Search Appliance 7.2


  155. Phil, you must be search special.  Try searching for tqqq……  nothing comes up for me.


  156. Phil's use of the "slash" to denote a stock ticker needs to incorporated into the search engine.  If I want to do a search all of Phil's comments regarding AT&T, just putting "T" into the search bar is obviously going to be useless to me.  Phil always appends a "/" after the tickers he's referring to so search on "T/" should return a list of all the comments in reference to AT&T stock, but it doesn't.  I think just being able to do that would be a tremendous help to me personally. 

     

    Since this is a WordPress blog there are several search engine plug-ins with good functionality and some are even free, so with some light customization we should be able to do searches on comments only, specific authors, specific date ranges, internal and external articles, stock tickers (by recognizing the "slash" symbol as a delineation) etc.. etc…  Oh how wondrous it would be! B)


  157. Actually I just tried that and I get 0 search results.  For anything now.  

    Search on a wordpress site can't be that hard to figure out.  Even if he has to exclude all other relevant trees, like Optrader tree and Sabrient tree.  I'm sure it has to do with the way the site was setup, where there isn't a subtree Phil, it's just the year.


  158. We could always hire those Russian hackers to figure it out.


  159. This is cool - my Grandma, Dinah Elman (Mom's Mom) coming to the US on the Queen Mary's maiden voyage in 1936.  Ancestry.com is getting pretty cool with all these documents on-line and my sister in-law has decided to trace back the family.  

    RTN/Scott – I think the uncertainty of military budgets going forward is what keeps them down – and for good reason.  Value-wise, they are very nice and pay a 2.6% dividend but you are playing the election lottery every two years with these guys.  At $96.04 you can sell 2016 $80 puts for $4.20 and that's a very nice entry if you REALLY want to own them and then you can say you think they should be over $100 with the 2016 $90/105 bull call spread at $6.50 for net $2.30 on the $15 spread that's $6 in the money at the moment but I would so much rather enter that trade at $90 that I'd be much more inclined to wait – especially as the S&P is looking questionable at 2,000. 

    Search issues – I sent comments off to Greg and Scott – we'll see what they come up with. 

    Well, that wasn't much of an announcement:

    President Obama on ISIS: 'We don't have a strategy yet'

    On Russia, Obama says "we are not taking military action to solve the Ukrainian problem." Military solution to the problem not forthcoming.

    Breaking: Obama: expansion of military effort in Iraq, Syria not imminent.

    Obama: "in order for Iraq's security forces to be successful they are going to need help. they are going to need help from us"

    Obama says idea of an outside power perpetually defeating ISIS without a unified Iraqi government is not realistic.

    Islamic State militants building a capital in the Syrian city of Raqqah:

     


  160. Phil/Crash Test…I'll try to find time to crash test the current portfolio, however I doubt that it would absorb the profit on closed 2014 trades which as of today equals $197,394.


  161. IHS – The last few years have been a relentless bull market.  Of course naked put selling in large quantity is going to work in this environment. 

    If the market crashes 10-20%+ because Russia Nukes Ukraine, or some other black swan, the VIX will shoot up to 40+, the bid/ask on options will increase dramatically, and the puts you have sold may quadruple in value.  The PM requirement could also quadruple.  If you don't have enough excess buying power to absorb these large paper losses, you will have a couple days before your broker starts closing out the positions and starts buying them back at absurdly elevated prices.   


  162. Good analysis of the GDP number and apparently good news as inventories didn't actually drive the numbers:

    http://www.bespokeinvest.com/thinkbig/2014/8/28/preliminary-q2-gdp-surprises-to-the-upside.html

     

    In Q2, we saw inventories jump, with a contribution to total growth of 1.66%, roughly mirroring the decline in Q1.  Many commentators were concerned that this meant Q3 growth would be slower than Q2, as inventories would have to be sold off.  Today's report, in addition to confirming some other trends that we liked in the initial Advance reading back on July 30th, suggests that inventories are not going to be an issue moving forward, with Q2 GDP showing a big gap up in final demand (GDP growth less inventory growth) from 2.3% to 2.8%.  Slower inventory accumulation helped, but so did higher-than-expected private fixed investment as businesses begin to deploy capital expenditures. 


  163. Just because Phil references 1936 and where I live they think I don't deserve to live here think this, my mom is a daughter of the revolution and ancestors came on the second boat 14?? I would have to ask my sister so we go back east for sure. 


  164. Nice oxymoron from the Pres ?

    Breaking: Obama: expansion of military effort in Iraq, Syria not imminent. http://wsj.com

    Obama: "in order for Iraq's security forces to be successful they are going to need help. they are going to need help from us"


  165. A lot of talk about religion in the past two days.  I try not to comment, as I think it's personal, but one of my favorite quotes is :

    “And Joshua said unto all the people [of Israel], … choose you this day whom ye will serve; … but as for me and my house, we will serve the Lord” (Josh. 24:2) :


  166. How broken is North America? I have a cousin somewhere in New England, a Catholic priest that I last saw as a Junior in High School, never ever saw his mom, his dad a few times. My sister has it all but I know the first in New England were in CT, a grand ?? dad whatever backed George Washington and lost his teeth in the revolution. In any other country we would be royalty be here we are disposable.


  167. Forgot, we were here when other than Indians the population of America was under 1,000!


  168. Shadow, when you write  in "any other country we would be royalty" you mean "shown respect for those who originated, settled, developed, and cultivated" the country, how could you possibly write with a straight face "we were here when other than the Indians the population of America was under 1,000"?  You are, as far as I can understand, arguing against treating human beings as "disposable."  Need I add wtf???????


  169. zero

    Are you kidding? In America people are disposable and I point out people who starved and fought for this place. Not worth a shit today if you didn't steal money!


  170. Zero

    Among others the Narragansett Indians are more royal than Prince (Jack Ass)!


  171. Rory Sutherland – if you haven't come across Rory before, is worth a look (imho).

    http://www.farnamstreetblog.com/2014/05/rory-sutherland-this-thing-for-which-we-have-no-name/


  172. scottmi

    I liked that, MCD among others must be a savior.


  173. I have to say that with the low volume and vol. this past week we have had the best off topic after hour discussions in months.  I seems anything is open from politics and religion to guns and drugs.  Its one reason I find this site so damn addicting.


  174. Looks like another top right now and turning downward. We are expecting some more numbers tomorrow with Euro-zone CPI and unemployment rate.

    Japanese numbers tonight – not so good: unemployment up, household spending down and industrial production way below expectations. Nikkei down at the moment.


  175. stockbern

    The situation is getting more interesting, I add all I can even if that has nothing to do with making money. Then again everything effects success whatever that is.


  176. The meaning of the Korean hanja word Samsung is "three stars" …

    I presume out of ten! ;-)


  177. Jersey cops/Phil – and this is far from an isolated incident. Yikes! WTF up in your 'hood?

    http://www.businessinsider.com/marcus-jeter-dash-cam-video-2014-8


  178. scottmi

    Don't for 1 minute think this is NJ, MO, or other isolated place. Not color, belief, or background. This was what Thomas Jefferson warned would happen and why. The reason for the second amendment which is no longer enough to prevent. Revolution is coming. 


  179. CCJ -  Since CCJ is on the watch list, I though I would post this:

    'Uranium increased the most in more than 2 1/2 years after Cameco Corp. moved to temporarily shut its McArthur River mine, the world’s largest source of the nuclear fuel, amid a dispute with workers.'

    http://www.theglobeandmail.com/globe-investor/cameco-mine-shutdown-spurs-biggest-rise-in-uranium-price-in-2-12-years/article20234894/




  180. Jabob:  Since you wrote your critique of my evening comments during trading hours, I hope you don’t mind if I respond at some length outside of them

     

    I think you really drop down the rabbit hole when you write stuff like: “Either something is 100% truth or it is false. You might 'believe' scientific facts to be true until proven false. But they were never true to begin with. It was a truth based on false evidence.”

     

    Truth?  Well, let’s see.  I assume you accept the “scientific fact”, based on DNA and much else, that we humans are simply a more advanced form of monkey.  Even the word “advanced” can be doubted, given the rate at which we are destroying our earth habitat, so let’s just say “clever” for now.

     

    So you believe in the existence of “100% truth”, do you?  But you do agree, I should think, that humans are trapped within our own perceptual limitations.  Whales and other cetaceans detect wavelengths well below our hearing range, insects detect wavelengths well above our ability to see light, wavelength, and dogs detect scent thousands of times fainter than we can.  All forms of “truth” of which humans are blissfully unaware. 

     

    And I am only referring to our senses.  When you move over to “thinking”, you run into real trouble. The Hubble Space Telescope site estimates there are hundreds of billions of galaxies in the universe. A recent German super-computer simulation estimates that the number may be as high as 500 billion galaxies, with many older than the Milky Way. Common observational wisdom among astronomers is that there are 17 billion Earth-sized planets in our galaxy alone.  And all this assumes that the universe is finite, for which there is no evidence whatsoever.

     

    So 500 Billion X 17 Billion planets would equal more planets than Phil would tolerate me writing out in zeros on his site.  The chances that even a small fraction of them harbor intelligent life [since that is what we call ourselves, misnomer or otherwise], given that the observable universe is composed of exactly the same 110-odd chemical elements, is extremely high, which would mean, at the least, that there are, at the minimum, billions of civilizations.

     

    And it is very likely that many of these “civilizations”, as we like to call ourselves, have been around a lot longer than we have.  And I’m quite sure they all observe the universe slightly differently, based on their respective natures.  “But the 110 elements and physical phenomena of the universe to which you refer are the same for all”, you might say.  No.  They must be observed – and observation is not the same for all observers, because the point of view of the observers are not the same.

     

    Hence the notion that there exists an “objective truth out there” that is entirely independent of the point of view of the observer” is unsustainable. Sure, a hand grenade will, quite objectively, blow your hand off.  But from the point of view of a denizen of the Alpha Centauri star system – the closest to us – a hand grenade-like chemical device might be used as a child’s teething ring – if it were, for example, a methane rather than carbon-based creature like ourselves.  Or even just a creature composed of 90+ % graphite rather than water like ourselves.  Hence there can be no “objective truth” upon which all creatures in the universe would agree.

    Oh, but there are 110 chemical elements, and all creatures everywhere must “agree” on that.  Yes, there are, but we imbue things with meaning, with associations that are meaningful for us.  I doubt very much that silicon-based creature value water as we do, for example – or even necessarily agree on what defines an "element."

      There is no escaping the point of view of the observer – unless, of course,  you re-define “truth” to mean “what any creature of any composition whatsoever and whatever form of consciousness it may have [lizards, dogs, Martians, Alien Atomic Slime Mold] perceives to be “true”, even if they all disagree radically.

     

    In which case there is no One Truth – there are only observers and interpretations.  Jabob, you don’t even have to leave the Planet Earth to see that – just ask the Pope, Putin, the leaders of ISIS, the Dalai Lama Jerry Falwell, or Phil on any given day!!!!

     

    And as far as your belief that there are phenomena known as “objectively moral”?  Your problem is much worse there, I’m afraid, since moral systems are invariably products of local conditions.  But surely you can see that, given the variety of religions and belief systems that have evolved [and often disappeared] over the ages???  As-salamu alaykum.


  181. From Bloomberg, Aug 29, 2014, 3:54:57 AM

    European stocks rose, extending
    their first monthly gain since May, as drugmakers rallied,
    outweighing a plunge in Tesco Plc shares.

    To read the entire article, go to http://bloom.bg/1tgsvd6

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  182. From Bloomberg, Aug 29, 2014, 3:06:08 AM


    Aug. 29 (Bloomberg) — European Central Bank monetary policy “can only buy time” and Europe is in need of structural reform, according to German Finance Minister Wolfgang Schaeuble.
    He spoke with Bloomberg’s Caroline Connan yesterday at the Medef business leaders’s conference near Paris. (Source: Bloomberg)

    Mario Draghi has made European
    political leaders an offer: You scratch my back and I’ll scratch
    yours.

    To read the entire article, go to http://bloom.bg/1pNTc6D

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  183. Watch this video at http://bloom.bg/1tg4Mtz

    The Top Five Fastest Trains In the World

    Aug. 29 (Bloomberg) –- America still lags behind Asia and Europe when it comes to train speed. The fastest train in the U.S. is the Acela Express, which hits speeds up to 150 mph. But internationally, trains operate at speeds faster than 200 mph on a regular basis. Bloomberg Ranx takes a looks at the five fastest trains in the world. (Source: Bloomberg)

    Sent from the Bloomberg iPad application. Download the free application at http://itunes.apple.com/us/app/bloomberg-for-ipad/id364304764?mt=8


  184. From Bloomberg, Aug 29, 2014, 2:35:32 AM


    A model AN-70 airplane sits on display at the Antonov stand on the second day of the Farnborough International Air Show in Farnborough, U.K.. Photographer: Chris Ratcliffe/Bloomberg

    Finland’s government said its fighter jets were ready to intercept foreign aircraft after Russian planes repeatedly violated the northernmost euro member’s airspace.

    To read the entire article, go to http://bloom.bg/1pNwtYD

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  185. From Bloomberg, Aug 29, 2014, 3:12:13 AM


    Aug. 29 (Bloomberg) –- Bloomberg’s Manus Cranny reports on the U.K.’s biggest grocer issuing a profit warning. He speaks on Bloomberg Television’s “Countdown.” (Source: Bloomberg)

    Tesco Plc will cut its dividend by 75 percent and rein in spending as it reduced expectations for full-year profit a month after ousting its chief executive officer. The stock fell as much as 9.1 percent.

    To read the entire article, go to http://bloom.bg/1qmiTtW

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  186. From Bloomberg, Aug 28, 2014, 10:08:31 PM


    Aug. 25 (Bloomberg) — Bank of Japan Governor Haruhiko Kuroda talks about the Japanese and global economies and outlook for monetary policy.
    He spoke with reporters in Jackson Hole, Wyoming, on Aug. 22. (Source: Bloomberg)

    Industrial production in Japan rose
    less than expected in July while household spending slumped and
    the inflation rate remained unchanged, highlighting the
    challenge of reflating the world’s third-largest economy.

    To read the entire article, go to http://bloom.bg/1pNZinx

    Sent from the Bloomberg iPad application. Download the free application at http://itunes.apple.com/us/app/bloomberg-for-ipad/id364304764?mt=8


  187. From Bloomberg, Aug 29, 2014, 12:01:00 AM

    Google Inc. (GOOG) is taking its rivalry
    against Amazon.com Inc. (AMZN) to the skies.

    To read the entire article, go to http://bloom.bg/1pNRZMN

    Sent from the Bloomberg iPad application. Download the free application at http://itunes.apple.com/us/app/bloomberg-for-ipad/id364304764?mt=8


  188. From Bloomberg, Aug 29, 2014, 2:45:00 AM

    Morgan Stanley (MS), the U.S. bank that’s
    selling part of its oil-trading business, extended purchases of
    diesel in Europe to a 42nd day amid the region’s biggest
    stockpiles in more than two years.

    To read the entire article, go to http://bloom.bg/1qmpYKY

    Sent from the Bloomberg iPad application. Download the free application at http://itunes.apple.com/us/app/bloomberg-for-ipad/id364304764?mt=8


  189. From Bloomberg, Aug 29, 2014, 2:19:56 AM


    Pedestrians walk past a row of residential properties in the Perivale district of London, U.K. Photographer: Jason Alden/Bloomberg

    London’s property market stagnated for a second month in August as buyers became reluctant to accept high asking prices amid the prospect of increasing borrowing costs, Hometrack Ltd. said.

    To read the entire article, go to http://bloom.bg/1pNIU6H

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  190. From Bloomberg, Aug 29, 2014, 12:01:00 AM

    The new restaurant is across the street from City Hall and just north of Wall Street, and features a full bar with Prosecco on tap and a $300 “grand slam brunch” for two that includes a bottle of Dom Perignon champagne. Photographer: Eugene Gologursky/Getty Images for Denny’s

    Denny’s Corp. (DENN), the restaurant chain known for dishes such as the Grand Slam and Moons Over My Hammy, is opening its first diner in New York City.

    To read the entire article, go to http://bloom.bg/1paPY8b

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  191. From Bloomberg, Aug 28, 2014, 11:01:00 PM


    A prostitute walks past so-called “sex boxes,” opened in 2013 with the aim of getting prostitution off Zurich’s street. Like the finance industry, the sex industry has opted for a lower profile on the outskirts of town. Photographer: Fabrice Coffrini/AFP via Getty Images

    Zurich’s red-light district is dimming. Bankers who have been core patrons of the city’s sex industry and cabarets are curbing spending.

    To read the entire article, go to http://bloom.bg/1zOpUpt

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  192. From Bloomberg, Aug 28, 2014, 9:59:26 PM

    Chinese workers of CREC (China Railway Engineering Corporation), or China Railway Group Limited, mount electrical wires on a construction site of the Jingfu High-speed Railway connecting Beijing and Fuzhou in east China’s Anhui province, 28 June 2014. Photographer: Imaginechina via AP Images

    Investors are returning to the largest Chinese exchange-traded fund in the U.S. at the fastest pace in almost two years on signs a government stimulus program will support growth in the world’s second-largest economy.

    To read the entire article, go to http://bloom.bg/1pNFzEt

    Sent from the Bloomberg iPad application. Download the free application at http://itunes.apple.com/us/app/bloomberg-for-ipad/id364304764?mt=8


  193. From Bloomberg, Aug 28, 2014, 5:18:14 PM

    Blackstone Group LP is preparing to sell New York’s 1095 Avenue of the Americas, a 42-story office tower that may fetch one of the highest prices ever for a U.S. skyscraper, according to two people familiar with the plans. Source: Blackstone LP via Bloomberg

    Blackstone Group LP (BX) is preparing to sell New York’s 1095 Avenue of the Americas, a 42-story office tower that may fetch one of the highest prices ever for a U.S. skyscraper, according to two people familiar with the plans.

    To read the entire article, go to http://bloom.bg/1sJWzdj

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  194. Lunar / stock info

    Hey, hey !… where is that feature that lunar mention about consulting a stock and seeing all the comments related to in in the past? I´m not aware of it.


  195. From Bloomberg, Aug 28, 2014, 5:17:24 PM


    Aug. 26 (Bloomberg) — Credit Suisse Vice Chairman of Research Neal Soss discusses the markets and Fed policy on “Bloomberg Surveillance.” (Source: Bloomberg)

    Federal Reserve officials benefited
    from gains in asset prices that have boosted the wealth of
    millions of other Americans, financial disclosure reports show.

    To read the entire article, go to http://bloom.bg/1sJAOu2

    Sent from the Bloomberg iPad application. Download the free application at http://itunes.apple.com/us/app/bloomberg-for-ipad/id364304764?mt=8


  196. From Bloomberg, Aug 28, 2014, 5:09:02 PM


    Aug. 28 (Bloomberg) — The bond market is “a bit ahead of itself” in its anticipation of quantative easing from the European Central Bank, according to Anthony O’Brien, fixed-income strategist at Morgan Stanley in London.
    He is speaking with Mark Barton, Manus Cranny and Anna Edwards on Bloomberg Television’s “Countdown.” (Source: Bloomberg)

    Treasuries gained, pushing 30-year
    bond yields to a 15-month low, as rising tension in Ukraine and
    speculation the European Central Bank will buy bonds
    overshadowed data showing the U.S. economy strengthened.

    To read the entire article, go to http://bloom.bg/1tXzeFS

    Sent from the Bloomberg iPad application. Download the free application at http://itunes.apple.com/us/app/bloomberg-for-ipad/id364304764?mt=8


  197. From Bloomberg, Aug 28, 2014, 4:58:33 PM

    Aug. 28 (Bloomberg) – Eurasia Group President Ian Bremmer discusses the escalating conflict in Ukraine and why the country is essentially at war with Russia. He speaks on Bloomberg Television’s “Bloomberg Surveillance.” (Source: Bloomberg)

    U.S. stocks fell, sending the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index below 2,000, as violence in Ukraine and disappointing retail earnings overshadowed data showing the economy expanded more than estimated.

    To read the entire article, go to http://bloom.bg/1tFIXm3

    Sent from the Bloomberg iPad application. Download the free application at http://itunes.apple.com/us/app/bloomberg-for-ipad/id364304764?mt=8


  198. From Bloomberg, Aug 27, 2014, 5:01:00 PM

    Feb. 26 (Bloomberg) — Beijing’s notorious air quality has reached hazardous levels for a sixth consecutive day – just one week before the city hosts the National People’s Congress. The government admits pollution is the number one cause of popular complaint and the issue may dominate discussions at the meeting. Bloomberg’s China correspondent Stephen Engle reports. (Source: Bloomberg)

    What would Beijing be like with more than twice as many people?

    To read the entire article, go to http://bloom.bg/1tLiCSJ

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  199. From Bloomberg, Aug 28, 2014, 4:53:07 PM

    President Barack Obama blamed Russia
    for the escalation of fighting in eastern Ukraine and said that
    the U.S. and its European allies are discussing additional steps
    to pressure the government in Moscow.

    To read the entire article, go to http://bloom.bg/1pNhNZe

    Sent from the Bloomberg iPad application. Download the free application at http://itunes.apple.com/us/app/bloomberg-for-ipad/id364304764?mt=8


  200. From Bloomberg, Aug 29, 2014, 3:25:11 AM


    Aug. 29 (Bloomberg) –- Puru Saxena Wealth Management CEO Puru Saxena discusses the strengthening of the U.S. Dollar, which currencies will weaken in the coming months and Bond yields with Bloomberg’s John Dawson, David Ingles, Angie Lau and Rishaad Salamat on “Asia Edge.” (Source: Bloomberg)

    European shares rebounded while
    bonds in the region climbed and the ruble weakened after its
    lowest close in 11 years as the conflict between Russia and
    Ukraine worsened. Industrial metals gained.

    To read the entire article, go to http://bloom.bg/1pNIqNZ

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  201. From Bloomberg, Aug 29, 2014, 3:51:42 AM


    European Central Bank President, Mario Draghi, left, speaks with U.S. Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen, during the Jackson Hole economic symposium in Moran, Wyoming, U.S., on Friday, Aug. 22, 2014. Draghi said on Aug. 22 that bets on price increases in the currency bloc “exhibited significant declines,” and policy makers are “ready to adjust our policy stance further.” Photographer: Bradly Boner/Bloomberg

    German 10-year bonds were set for an
    eighth monthly advance, the longest run since January 2005,
    before a report economists said will show inflation in the euro
    area slowed to the least in almost five years this month.

    To read the entire article, go to http://bloom.bg/VRSF7z

    Sent from the Bloomberg iPad application. Download the free application at http://itunes.apple.com/us/app/bloomberg-for-ipad/id364304764?mt=8


  202. From Bloomberg, Aug 29, 2014, 4:24:49 AM

    Denmark’s economy unexpectedly
    shrank in the second quarter, threatening to derail a government
    projection that the nation will see a recovery in demand this
    year.

    To read the entire article, go to http://bloom.bg/1qao80M

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  203. From Bloomberg, Aug 29, 2014, 3:52:12 AM

    An erupting volcano under Iceland’s Vatnajokull glacier melts big gaps in the ice, Oct. 12, 1996. Vatnajokull is Europe’s largest glacier. Photographer: Michael Probst/AP Photo

    Iceland put airlines on the highest
    level of alert after authorities detected an eruption north of
    the Bardarbunga volcano.

    To read the entire article, go to http://bloom.bg/1tgnKk1

    Sent from the Bloomberg iPad application. Download the free application at http://itunes.apple.com/us/app/bloomberg-for-ipad/id364304764?mt=8


  204. From Bloomberg, Aug 29, 2014, 12:00:00 AM


    Aug. 29 (Bloomberg) — European Central Bank monetary policy “can only buy time” and Europe is in need of structural reform, according to German Finance Minister Wolfgang Schaeuble.
    He spoke with Bloomberg’s Caroline Connan yesterday at the Medef business leaders’s conference near Paris. (Source: Bloomberg)

    European Central Bank Governing
    Council member Ewald Nowotny suggested the institution may cut
    its economic forecast when it presents an updated estimate next
    week.

    To read the entire article, go to http://bloom.bg/1zODc5g

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  205. From Bloomberg, Aug 29, 2014, 3:36:09 AM

    Traders may ship Thai raw sugar
    equivalent to 16 percent of the global surplus against the
    October contract on the ICE Futures U.S. exchange, the first
    deliveries from the Asian nation since 2012.

    To read the entire article, go to http://bloom.bg/1pNwwDu

    Sent from the Bloomberg iPad application. Download the free application at http://itunes.apple.com/us/app/bloomberg-for-ipad/id364304764?mt=8


  206. From Bloomberg, Aug 29, 2014, 12:23:17 AM


    More than 1,000 casino workers in Macau held a protest march on Aug. 25 for a seventh time this year to demand better pay and working conditions. Photographer: Brent Lewin/Bloomberg

    Wynn Macau Ltd. led declines among
    casino stocks in the world’s largest gambling hub amid concerns
    that recent protests by workers for better pay could escalate
    into strike actions this weekend.

    To read the entire article, go to http://bloom.bg/1tgnbq8

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  207. From Bloomberg, Aug 29, 2014, 3:23:15 AM


    Aug. 29 (Bloomberg) — Dario Talmesio, principal analyst at Ovum, discusses Deutsche Telekom AG’s proposed sale of its T-Mobile US Inc. unit and Telefonica SA’s bid for Vivendi SA’s GVT business.
    He speaks with Mark Barton, Anna Edwards and Manus Cranny on Bloomberg Television’s “Countdown.” (Source: Bloomberg)

    Deutsche Telekom AG (DTE) is willing to negotiate a sale of its T-Mobile US Inc. (TMUS) unit, the fourth-largest wireless carrier in the U.S., if an offer puts a valuation of at least $35 a share to the business, according to a person with knowledge of the matter.

    To read the entire article, go to http://bloom.bg/1tH4quU

    Sent from the Bloomberg iPad application. Download the free application at http://itunes.apple.com/us/app/bloomberg-for-ipad/id364304764?mt=8


  208. From Bloomberg, Aug 28, 2014, 4:25:33 PM

    Tighter regulation of U.S. ships
    carrying record exports of diesel and gasoline is coming amid
    the worst year for oil spills from barges since 2008.

    To read the entire article, go to http://bloom.bg/1tFMdhg

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  209. From Bloomberg, Aug 29, 2014, 2:05:49 AM

    This year’s Treasury market rally
    has been stronger than every economist surveyed by Bloomberg
    News
    predicted.

    To read the entire article, go to http://bloom.bg/1pO7gxc

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  210. From Bloomberg, Aug 28, 2014, 11:14:18 PM

    A National Defense Academy of Japan (NDA) cadet runs past a military aircraft on display at the NDA campus in Yokosuka, Kanagawa Prefecture, Japan. Photographer: Yuriko Nakao/Bloomberg

    Japan’s Defense Ministry is seeking a record budget of 5.5 trillion yen ($53 billion) for the year starting April as it seeks to bolster defense of remote islands amid a territorial dispute with China.

    To read the entire article, go to http://bloom.bg/1tgbhNe

    Sent from the Bloomberg iPad application. Download the free application at http://itunes.apple.com/us/app/bloomberg-for-ipad/id364304764?mt=8


  211. From Bloomberg, Aug 28, 2014, 7:37:36 PM


    Aug. 25 (Bloomberg) — Bank of Japan Governor Haruhiko Kuroda talks about the Japanese and global economies and outlook for monetary policy.
    He spoke with reporters in Jackson Hole, Wyoming, on Aug. 22. (Source: Bloomberg)

    Japan’s inflation rate was unchanged in July after slowing the previous month, highlighting the challenge Governor Haruhiko Kuroda faces in achieving the central bank’s price-growth target.

    To read the entire article, go to http://bloom.bg/1zNzZ5Z

    Sent from the Bloomberg iPad application. Download the free application at http://itunes.apple.com/us/app/bloomberg-for-ipad/id364304764?mt=8


  212. From Bloomberg, Aug 28, 2014, 9:32:09 PM


    Some luxury hotels are trying to lose their stars.

    What’s the difference between first class and business class? Apparently nothing, at least on state-owned China Southern Airlines, the mainland’s largest carrier. According to a report in Tuesday’s Financial Times, the airline has decided to rename its top-end cabin as business, to get around a prohibition on Communist Party officials flying first class while on the clock. The airline has reassured travel agents that clients buying the new tickets will “receive the same service as first-class customers.”

    To read the entire article, go to http://bv.ms/XWZeYb

    Sent from the Bloomberg iPad application. Download the free application at http://itunes.apple.com/us/app/bloomberg-for-ipad/id364304764?mt=8


  213. From Bloomberg, Aug 27, 2014, 7:00:01 PM

    April 24 (Bloomberg) –- The ultra high-end electric and hybrid car space is suddenly getting a bit more crowded in China. Tesla had the first deliveries of the Model S to Chinese customers this week, while BMW will roll out its hybrid i8 super sports car for the China market by the end of the year. Bloomberg’s Stephen Engle got behind the wheel of BMW’s new offering in Beijing. (Source: Bloomberg)

    Egomaniacs, listen up, because when
    it comes to the war for attention, the BMW (BMW) i8 wins.

    To read the entire article, go to http://bloom.bg/XTFQey

    Sent from the Bloomberg iPad application. Download the free application at http://itunes.apple.com/us/app/bloomberg-for-ipad/id364304764?mt=8


  214. From Bloomberg, Aug 28, 2014, 3:13:22 PM

    Replace can come before repeal.

    If Republicans capture control of both houses of Congress in November, they will have a golden opportunity to lay the groundwork for a market-based health-care overhaul — a goal that can only be achieved after the next presidential election.

    To read the entire article, go to http://bv.ms/1lyFXXu

    Sent from the Bloomberg iPad application. Download the free application at http://itunes.apple.com/us/app/bloomberg-for-ipad/id364304764?mt=8


  215. Good morning!  

    We knew "THEY" would pump it up into the weekend and GS puppet, Draghi came out with more stimulus talk to give the Futures a lift.  Interestingly, people in Europe know it's BS and the markets have sold off all day since the opening pop but still up 0.25%.  Our Futures are up about 0.25% as well and really not playable today because of the long weekend craziness.

    Euro-Zone Inflation Cools Further

    The annual inflation rate in the 18 nations that use the euro sank further in August, heaping further pressure on the European Central Bank to take more aggressive steps to fuel growth in the euro zone's stagnant economy.

    Oil flew to $95 but gasoline (/RB) is still $2.5975 and I still like it long at $2.60, which gave us 0.02 ($480) yesterday.  I don't expect a big pop because it's /RBU4 that determines Sept and that's $2.75 but TOS won't trade it but it was under $2.65 two weeks ago and straight up since – so I think /RBV4 could at least give us a couple of more pennies. 

    • Japan -0.23%.
    • Hong Kong +0.01%.
    • China +0.97%.
    • India Closed.
    • London +0.08%.
    • Paris +0.10%.
    • Frankfurt +0.14%.

    'Defenseless' Europe Seen Bearing Economic Brunt of Ukraine Conflict - Europe will absorb the bulk of global economic fallout coming from an escalating Russia-Ukraine conflict, a leading Russia expert says.

    Low Inflation Pressures ECB - Low German inflation and falling Spanish consumer prices put added pressure on the ECB to take steps to prevent ultralow inflation from further damaging the euro zone's stagnant economy.

    German Retail Sales Drop - German retail sales in July posted the biggest monthly decline in real terms since January 2012, the country's statistics office said Friday.

    Euro-Zone Consumers Turn Downbeat

    Rising Franc Puts Spotlight on Swiss Central Bank

    • Morgan Stanley (NYSE:MS) is filing plans to build, own and operate one of the first U.S. compressed natural gas export facilities and submitted its application to the Department of Energy in May.
    • The move is the first sign that the bank is returning to the physical commodity markets even as it sells its global oil business.
    • Morgan Stanley, along with Goldman, are the only two Wall Street banks that are allowed to own and operate infrastructure of raw materials due to their "grandfather" status for any commodities activities they engaged in before 1997.

    Oil Rises on Ukraine Violence - Oil prices headed higher, supported by rising tension in Ukraine as Kiev accused Moscow of invading its territory.

    Ruble Hits New Low - The Russian ruble hit its all-time low as geopolitical conflict in eastern Ukraine intensified with an alleged participation of Russian troops.

     

    • Malaysia Airlines (OTCPK:MLYAF) is cutting 30% of its workforce, slashing 6,000 jobs of its current 20,000 staff, following the company's long-running losses and its two recent aircraft disasters.
    • The restructuring will cost $1.9B and de-list Malaysia Airlines from the Kuala Lumpur exchange by the end of 2014.
    • Earlier this month, wealth fund Khazanah Nasional offered to take the airline private by buying out the remaining stock of the company it did not already own.

    Three more McDonald's restaurants closed in Russia

    • Three more McDonald's (NYSE:MCD) restaurants have been closed in Russia, bringing the total amount of shut branches now up to eight.
    • Russia's food safety regulator, Rospotrebnadzor, still maintains that the closings are due to sanitary violations, although they coincide with heightened tensions over the Ukraine crisis.
    • McDonald's said earlier this week that it will appeal the decisions by a court in Moscow.

    Here's one sure way to boost S&P earnings:  Tyson completes $7.7B acquisition; Hillshire shares to be de-listed

    • Tyson Foods (NYSE:TSN) has completed its $7.7B acquisition of Hillshire Brands (NYSE:HSH).
    • Hillshire's common stock will be de-listed and cease trading on the NYSE and Chicago Stock Exchange before the market open this morning.
    • Tyson says the combined company's new leadership will include a mix of senior leaders from both companies, but Hillshire's CEO Sean Connolly has chosen to pursue other interests.

  216. LINE@NASDAQ (Name: LINN ENERGY LLC-UNITS) announced a cash dividend with ex-dividend date of 20140904 and payable date of 20140911. The declared cash rate is USD 0.2416.


  217. Phil – Monthly Income Q

    Regarding my ask about showing "monthly" income.  What do you think about getting a list together of monthly div payers that I could take a portion of my portfolio, say 40%, and put it in these names.  Since I'm only using 12% of portfolio margin, the other 88% is sitting in cash.  (Although, with portfolio margin as Vol rises or stocks fall the margin req go up).   

    Would you like me to get a list together?  


  218. Crash test/IHS – I don't mean a model, I meant have you survived an actual crash with that strategy.  If not, as noted by Palotay – I would be very cautious moving forward until you get a good chance to see how they perform in a 10%+ drop.

    GDP/StJ – Not sure how good that is if one thing is green out of 16 categories.  Of course inventories red I consider a good thing.  

    Ancestors/Shadow – Are you saying they were on the Pinta or with the Spanish conquerors that took over the Caribbean Islands over the next 100 years?  If you mean the Mayflower, that was 1609, not 14??  And I think, technically, the natives that were here in the first place should have been treated like royalty – but they were enslaved and killed by your grandparents instead – so not really something you should bitch about.  

    Sutherland/Scott – He's a very cool guy, lots of good stuff from him.  He gets the cross-discipline process I heartily endorse:

    Discussions/Stock – Yes, on the whole, I enjoy lively debates with intelligent people.

    Big Chart – Big Finish to the month today – what a rocket!  

    Cops/Scott – Things are really getting out of control.  Don't forget, cops are also in the bottom 80% for the most part and they are pissed off and armed.  We used to take care of our cops and being a cop was a good job and a good career with health care and pensions and such.  Now, cops can't afford to live in the towns they patrol, they come home to a stack of bills and their kids can't afford to go to college.  What kind of police do you think should be guarding you?

    CCJ/Pfehl – Sometimes I think these miners engineer the strikes to give them an excuse to choke off production.  

    Roberts/Scott – If he thinks he has Putin figured out, he's a fool indeed!  

    Petrodollars/Scott – It's been tried before, didn't stick.  Of course enough people hate us now that they might be willing to inconvenience themselves in order to take us down a notch.  Certainly it's done nothing to damage the Dollar on the announcement (82.5). 

    Objective truth/ZZ – As Orwell said "The very concept of objective truth is fading out of the World.  Lies will pass into history" although Buddha said "There are only two mistakes one can make along the road to the truth: Not going all the way and Not starting."  To that end, I keep trying, though Orwell and recent history seem to be against us…

    Feature/Advill – The Wiki had a comment search but it doesn't seem to be working properly.  

    Dividends/Burr – Well if you put a list together of monthly dividend payers I can see if any look good.  Keep in mind, with PM, you don't WANT to use much of it – it's for emergencies.