Weekly Market Report
by Chart School - March 15th, 2010 12:08 pm
Weekly Market Report for March 14 - March 20, 2010
Courtesy of InTheMoneyStocks.com
The S&P 500 traded higher again this week. The index traded higher by 11 points from last weeks close. So far the January high of 1150 has held as resistance. Should the market break out and confirm above this 1150 level the next major weekly resistance area will be around 1200.00. Options expiration is on Friday March 19th, 2010. This usually makes for a volatile, and choppy week of trading as a lot of institutional games will be played into expiration.
The SPDR Gold Shares ETF (NYSE:GLD) sold off sharply losing nearly 3.00 points on the week. Last week we mentioned the possibility of a lower high pivot being formed and this is exactly what took place. The 104.50 - 105.00 area is still going to be some support on the weekly chart followed by the 100.00 area. This week the GLD declined even as the U.S. Dollar sold off. This is a rare event and could be signaling further weakness for gold in the near term. While gold continues to look like a great long term hold 2010 should be a volatile and choppy year for the precious metal.
The U.S. Oil Fund ETF (NYSE:USO) finished last week basically flat. Oil is trading at its high range for the year as it continues in a long sideways base since June 2009. Every time oil has reached these levels it has pulled back. Until it can break out and confirm a close above the 42.00 level we are likley to see more range bound trading in the USO. Currently the weekly resistance level for the USO is 42.00 and the weekly support is 34.00.
The U.S. Dollar Index sold off this past week losing 0.66 cents for the week closing down at 79.77. This may not sound like much, however, this is a lot of meat and potatoes when it comes to the dollar index. Generally, a strong dollar will have a negative effect on the major indexes. Currently the dollar still looks to be consolidating just under the weekly 200 moving average. Therefore, this could ultimately be a bullish pattern for the U.S. Dollar index. It is important to remember that a stronger dollar usually adversely effects commodities and inflationary stocks. The opposite effect is true when the dollar declines.
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Market Club’s Monday Outlook
by ilene - March 15th, 2010 11:34 am
Market Club’s Monday Outlook
Via Market Club’s Adam Hewison
a. Sneak Peek At The S&P 500This week could be shaping up to be an extraordinary week in the markets. I strongly recommend that traders everywhere take precautionary measure measures to protect capital.
While the S&P 500 made new highs for the year last week, it did not do so in a very convincing manner. In today’s short video I show you some of the elements that I think should be cause for concern.
b. Is The US Dollar Reversing Again?
The euro/dollar relationship may be reversing again based on recent price action. In today’s short video on the euro/dollar, I point out some of the changes we see happening in this market.
Watch the EURO/DOLLAR VIDEO HERE.>>
c. GOLD
And lastly, let’s see what’s happening with GOLD.
The move down in gold yesterday surprised many traders and flashed an exit signal based on MarketClub’s daily "Trade Triangle" technology. As we have mentioned before, we felt that gold was in a broad trading range and were not optimistic that it would shoot higher.
The action yesterday confirms that we have more of a two-way market. I expect we’ll see further selling on any rallies from this level.
In today’s video, I share with you my thoughts on gold based on one important element: how gold energy fields propel this market.
More on GOLD HERE.>>
(What's this?)
(Gold Versus Paper, 3/9/10)
(Gold Versus Paper, 3/13/10)
(THE PRAGMATIC CAPITALIST, 3/13/10)
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Hedge Fund Slams Rick Bookstaber For Comments On The Gold Bubble
by ilene - March 11th, 2010 1:59 pm
Hedge Fund Slams Rick Bookstaber For Comments On The Gold Bubble
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Courtesy of Gus Lubin at Clusterstock/Business Insider
QB Partners fits the description of hedge funds that Rick Bookstaber accused of pumping the gold bubble and — even worse — of fueling the bubble with publicity.
The New York fund leapt to the defense of gold by sending an email to Business Insider with a message for Bookstaber.
Attached was the point-by-point rebuttal they gave to Nouriel Roubini in December when he had the nerve to diss gold.
Here are the highlights of QBAMCO’s Message To The Gold Haters >
See Also:
Rick Bookstaber: Hedge Funds Are Pumping The Gold Bubble And Luring Investors Off A Cliff
See also this chart (below) via Jesse’s Americain Cafe, and the comment by bidwhacker at Clusterstock
The economic cycle is definitely not the right framework for determining when to be in gold. Gold bull and bear markets can extend across economic upturns and downturns.
Absent an "economic meltdown" as you call it, the best tool for determining when the gold price will advance (at least since Nixon broke the last vestiges of the gold standard) is real interest rates:
Gold bull markets happen in an environment of negative real interest rates…This is the closest thing to an one-variable indicator for the gold market. But as you point out, it only good over longer periods of time and not a perfect correlation. The way I like to look at it is, when you have negative real interest rates, the odds are strongly with you that gold prices will go up.
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Competition for the IMF’s Gold?
by ilene - March 10th, 2010 5:24 pm
In contrast to our friends at Elliott Wave Int., Casey Reserch remains bullish on gold…
Competition for the IMF’s Gold?
By Jeff Clark, Senior Editor, Casey’s Gold & Resource Report
On February 24, Reuters reported that the Reserve Bank of India was “set to be a buyer” of the 191.3 tonnes (6.74 million ounces) of gold the IMF is selling. Although the bank wouldn’t comment directly on the possibility, they did say, “We are closely looking at the gold market… gold is a safe bet.”
The article then quoted an unidentified official from the China Gold Association as saying, "It is not feasible for China to buy the IMF bullion, as any purchase or even intent to do so would trigger market speculation and volatility.”
But the next day, Finmarket news agency in Russia reported that China “confirmed its intention” to buy the IMF gold. "Chinese officials have confirmed previous announcements from IMF experts and said that the purchasing of 191 tons of gold would not exert negative influence on the world market.”
While they’ve been silent since, both India and China have publicly hinted they want this latest batch of yellow bars from the IMF. There’s no way to know if a competitive bid would spring up between these two countries, but…can you imagine the ramifications if one did?
When India bought 200 tonnes of IMF gold last November 3, it set off a buying spree that saw gold rise 14.2% in 4 weeks. What if this time around, a couple central banks both want the gold for sale? What if China says to India, “Not so fast, guys. We’d like to bid on that, too…” and word of that clash leaked out?
Pure speculation, of course, but competing for gold purchases isn’t a far-fetched idea. This sale is not pre-arranged; it’s an open market sale. Also, there’s only so much to go around. These two countries have only a tiny amount of their reserves in gold. Throw in the fact that central banks worldwide are already net buyers.
A pretty delicious thought, wouldn’t you say?
The gold price dropped a tad on the IMF announcement, but is up 1.1% since then. It’s pretty hard to make a case that IMF sales will hurt the gold price. As I said a few weeks ago in my dirty jokes column, IMF sales tend to mark bottoms in the price and not tops. The World Gold Council reported that floor traders now consider $1,054 as a floor in the market. Why?…
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Is Gold Getting Bubbly?
by ilene - March 10th, 2010 1:01 pm
Yesterday I posted an article by RICK BOOKSTABER, The Gold Bubble, in the Favorites. Having no opinion on the short or long term movement in the price of gold, I thought Rick’s article was thought-provoking, as he reasonably questioned the mass and loudish flow of money into gold investments.
Zero Hedge also posted the article, with a more critical introduction. I then perused ZH’s comment section to find a lot of animosity towards Rick’s opinion, even directed at his character (he works for the SEC!). The highly emotional tone surprised me, indicating a core belief was being challenged, as opposed to the fun and discovery of an intellectual debate. (Maybe this is typical in comment sections.)
Anyway, in this article, Nico Isaac also questions the faith many people have placed in GOLD as the next safety net against the ruin of our financial system.
For more on gold from EWI, download Robert Prechter’s FREE 40-Page Gold and Silver eBook. - Ilene
Gold: Best Supporting Role In Economic Downturns? Think Again
Gold’s safe-haven status is based on hype, not history
Courtesy of EWI, by Nico Isaac
As I sat down to watch the Oscar pre-show on Sunday night, March 7, one word was repeatedly used to describe the celebrity starlets and their designer duds: GOLD. Gold bustiers and gold lame skirts, shiny gun-metal dresses and glittery sequined gowns all basking in the golden shadow of the final golden statue.
Everywhere you look, from the Red Carpet to Wall Street, gold is definitely in "fashion." As for why, one word comes to mind: safe-haven. See, according to the mainstream financial experts, the more unstable the global economy, the greater the appeal for the precious metal.
And, with a staggering 17% unemployment rate in the United States, alongside slumping real estate sales, Eurozone weakness, the Greece debt debacle, and so on — the only thing going up is gold’s supposed disaster premium. Here, take these recent news items for example:
- "Bullion Sales Hit Record In Stampede To Safety." (Financial Times)
- "Gold Ticks Higher On Safe Haven Buying. The risk trade is resuming." (AP)
- "Gold Rose to 6 ½ Week Highs as the metal benefits from fears over financial instability in general. The market is looking for some security with gold." (Reuters)
- "Gold Rush: This is a new round of safe haven buying." (Bloomberg)
There’s just one problem: The correlation between a falling economy AND rising gold prices is based solely on hype, NOT history.
Case in point: In the March 2008 Elliott Wave Theorist (republished in his 40-page Gold and Silver eBook), Elliott…
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Rick Bookstaber: Hedge Funds Are Pumping The Gold Bubble And Luring Investors Off A Cliff
by ilene - March 9th, 2010 4:13 pm
Rick Bookstaber: Hedge Funds Are Pumping The Gold Bubble And Luring Investors Off A Cliff
Courtesy of Gus Lubin at Clusterstock/Business Insider
The SEC’s Rick Bookstaber can hardly watch as sheep-like investors chase the gold bubble straight off a cliff.
Although his employer doesn’t give market advice, the SEC’s senior policy adviser shows his personal frustration in a post on Roubini Global Economics. First, he drops this great line about how people don’t even pretend that gold isn’t a bubble:
Even if a guy is just after sex, he at least has the decency to act like there is some substance behind his interest.
Second, Bookstaber thinks hedge funds managers like John Paulson have a pump and dump scheme on gold.
RGE:
Given that “hedge fund” and “highly secretive” are usually said in the same breath, don’t you get suspicious when so many of the top managers are so vocally out there about their gold investments? And when their positions are structured in a way that make them open to view? Paulson and Soros have huge positions in gold ETFs. We know that, because if you buy ETFs, they show up in your 13-F filing. Granted, with an equity investment you can’t help putting that information out into the market, but with an asset there are plenty of ways to take the position without signaling it.
That they are taking a highly visible route to their positions suggests the game that is being played is one of leading the herd. The 13-F reports positions with a big lag, so no one will notice if they quietly slip out the side door while the party is still hopping. And how about when the view is backed up by none other than Goldman Sachs? Will they let everyone know when they think it has gone too far before they get out. Or before they go short? Maybe they already have.
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Are Traders Demanding US Credit Default Swaps Payable in Gold?
by ilene - March 8th, 2010 5:00 pm
Are Traders Demanding US Credit Default Swaps Payable in Gold?
Courtesy of JESSE’S CAFÉ AMÉRICAIN
If another author had said this I might not pay it so much attention. Lately some have been given over to a tabloid approach to overstatement and sensational headlines to attract attention. This is a strong temptation as the blogosphere expands, similar to the development and evolution of newspapers as a popular medium in Victorian London for example.
But as you know, I have a great deal of respect and admiration for Janet Tavakoli and her knowledge in this area. If she is seeing a new demand for Credit Default Swaps on the US payable in gold I would credit it since this is her area of expertise and industry connections, but would ask for some particulars, which I have done. This would match up with some other data I have seen from other sources, and desire to continue to put the puzzle pieces together without traveling false trails.
It does make sense, of course, to price a US default in something other than dollars. The question that comes to mind though, is not the suggested method of payment, but the nature and quality of the counter-party who could stand reliably behind such a claim without it being a fraudulent contract by its very nature.
If the US should default, what major financial institutions will be in a position to have written and then uphold the terms of these CDS, payable in anything at all? Surely only a sovereign bank like the US Fed, the Treasury, or the IMF, or some other central bank could be so capable. But what possible motivation could a non-profit-seeking official institution have in writing CDS on a US sovereign default? Perhaps more likely a private bank or GSE, with the buyers thinking it has some sovereign guarantees that would be upheld in extremis.
Truly, remember AIG? It was insolvent when payment was demanded, and acted improperly in paying collateral to Goldman ahead of its inevitable insolvency, and then receiving the support of the Treasury to pay obligations in full, above all others. It ought to have been placed in a receivership and its assets allocated with the previously disposed collateral clawed back. This kind of private arrangement between parties involving the sovereign wealth of nations may be indicative of things to come. The recent example of Iceland comes to mind.
I agree with her that credit default swaps…
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What’s More Important: Price Per Ounce or Ounces Owned?
by ilene - March 5th, 2010 2:04 pm
What’s More Important: Price Per Ounce or Ounces Owned?
By Jeff Clark, Casey’s Gold & Resource Report
In a recent conversation with a fellow gold analyst, he was emphatic that the price one pays for physical gold should be ignored. “What’s far more important,” he insisted, “is how many ounces I own in relation to the total value of my assets.”
Building a core position in gold bullion is a smart goal, to be sure, and a strategy Casey Research has been advising for years. However, ignoring the price you pay for gold could be seen as foolhardy; sure, it’s insurance, but isn’t price part of the consideration when you shop for insurance?
So, who’s right?
The World Gold Council just released their 2009 annual report on gold trends. From the densely populated pages of interesting data, there’s one compelling tidbit I gleaned that may shed some light on the buying behavior of gold investors.
Overall investment in gold was 7% higher in 2009 than 2008. This is significant when you consider that demand in the fourth quarter of 2008 – during one of the worst financial meltdowns in history – was so great that shortages of physical metal abounded everywhere. And yet investors bought more gold in 2009 when investor fear about global financial uncertainty was subdued.
Further, 2009 total funds invested in all forms of gold exceeded 2008 by 20%, and the average price was 11.6% higher. In other words, investors were buying gold even though the price wasn’t necessarily “low.” To be sure, that’s a broad statement. But the fact remains that year-on-year, more gold was purchased at higher prices when the markets were less scary, than when the price was lower and Hank Paulson was on CNBC every 15 minutes pontificating on how to save America’s financial system.
This isn’t to suggest one shouldn’t pay attention to price. And the data doesn’t identify how many of those who purchased gold last year were first-time buyers, as certainly there were newcomers to the sector that contributed to higher demand. But it begs the question, who would continue to buy gold when the price is higher?
Whoever doesn’t own enough, that’s who. The gold I bought last month was certainly higher priced than what I paid in 2008. But I’m trying to position my assets for protection from eventual dollar debasement and rising inflation. So perhaps focusing more on acquiring sufficient ounces to withstand a storm…
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Jobless Friday - US, Japan and Europe Add More Stimulus
by Phil - March 5th, 2010 7:43 am
Wheee - more free money!
The money train left the station just ahead of the US market close yesterday when the House passed a $15Bn Jobs Bill although it remains to be seen if Jim Bunning will pass it. China doesn’t need Bunning’s permission to hand out free money and they will be "allocating 63.2 Billion Yuan" to fight high housing prices by SUBSIDIZING low-cost housing. Come to think of it - I object to that! Someone in China needs a lesson in some basic economics…
The big boost this morning came from Japan, where bonds hit the highest level of the year after the Nikkei newspaper said the central bank at its March 16 meeting may discuss additional monetary easing steps. It doesn’t matter whether this report is true or not as it already did it’s job and shot the Nikkei up 223 points for the day, erasing two week’s worth of losses in a single session. It’s hard for the BOJ to get easier than our own Fed but Chicago Fed President Charles Evans said yesterday he needs evidence of “highly sustainable” growth before supporting tighter monetary policy, while James Bullard of the St. Louis Fed said the central bank should remain “accommodative” - these are, of course, the Fed’s code words for MORE FREE MONEY!
Of course, our Futures are up 1% from yesterday’s low and the commodity markets LOVE IT and oil is back at $80.65 with copper back at $3.40 despite "weak" demand in China, where stockpiles of copper are now at 7-year highs and even Goldman Sachs has withdrawn their buy recommendation on coppper because of concern that economic recovery in developed markets isn’t on “solid footing.” “About 60 percent of China’s copper is used in the power industry, and our sales to wire-and-cable users reflected that demand is rather weak,” Chairman Wei Jianghong said, while attending the National People’s Congress.
“The demand is not very strong in the first place,” Jiangxi Copper Chairman Li said in Beijing while at the congress. “But a lot of people have long positions in the market, so I think in the first half of this year, copper prices will be good.” Copper stockpiles in China jumped to 149,478 tons for the week ended Feb. 26, 28 percent more than the week ended Feb. 12, according to the Shanghai Futures Exchange. Demand from China for global supplies may weaken because prices on the Shanghai Futures Exchange are now close to those in London, discouraging arbitrage trading, Goldman Sachs analysts…
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REFLECTIONS ON GOLD AS AN ASSET CLASS
by ilene - March 4th, 2010 11:54 pm
REFLECTIONS ON GOLD AS AN ASSET CLASS
Courtesy of The Pragmatic Capitalist
Gold is hotter than ever. You can’t turn on the TV these days without seeing a gold commercial. Several well known hedge fund managers have leveraged up positions in gold while John Paulson even went so far as to start his own gold hedge fund. As an asset class gold has outperformed just about everything over the last 10 year period. It’s been an impressive run. But is it all justified? Bear with me for a bit while I take a long-term macro look at gold as an asset class….
After having experienced deflation through much of 2008 and the beginning of 2009 the economy began to reflate as the Fed’s printing press (or button pressing if you prefer) went to work. Asset prices began to stabilize and bank balance sheets were suddenly flush with cash as the Fed provided liquidity like it was going out of style. The inflationistas immediately began crying wolf. All of this extra cash was certain to cause inflation. And that meant one thing: buy gold and short dollars. Right?
All was not what it seemed, however. Underneath the surface, there was no real reflation – only continuing signs of deflation or at best, very benign inflation. Asset prices surged as money flowed out of low risk assets (for which investors were no longer rewarded) and into high risk assets. This herding of the Federal Reserve has given many the impression that the economy is “recovering”. But underneath the surface lies the continuing problem of double D’s (and not the good kind) – debt and de-leveraging. While asset prices have improved the liability side of the ledger remains in tatters in the U.S. economy and around the world. De-leveraging continues and demand for more credit remains subdued. Yet, the price of gold rallied. I believe a large portion of the move is based on the misconception of gold as an asset class.
When analyzing the price of gold it’s important to understand that gold prices do not move like most other commodities. It has certain built-in unquantifiable characteristics that drive price. The price of gold is actually a function of four things: 1) its replacement potential for the U.S. dollar; 2) the future rate of inflation, 3) Sentiment – generally fear based and 4) true supply and demand. Let’s take a look at each.
Nouriel Roubini recently quoted Keynes in describing gold as…
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Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...
Ilene is editor and affiliate program
coordinator for PSW. She manages the Favorites backup site
(