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Posts Tagged ‘USO’

Friday Futures Fakery – Do you REALLY think a downed airline doesn’t matter?

Can we possibly be this jaded? 

Even on Wall Street, where ruining the lives of the middle class is a sporting event, you would think that the tragic death of 298 people being shot down in an airplane would AT LEAST cause the markets to pause for more than a few hours.  That's not what the Futures would have you believe – they are moving up this morning (7:30) as if shooting planes out of the sky isn't a reason not to trade stocks at their all-time highs

While our long trade ideas from yesterday's morning post worked out fantastically, we were very fortunately NOT GREEDY at 10:03, when I said to our Members:

Philly Fed up huge (like NY), 23.9 vs 10 expected though 17.8 last month means they were just being too pessimistic.  That should give us a nice pop but I'd take those Futures profits off this run!  

SPY 5 MINUTEAs you can see from Dave Fry's SPY chart, our timing was near perfect as things turned sour very quickly.  That then worked out well for our oil shorts, which went from the $103 conviction target I laid out in the morning post (subscribe here to get them pre-market every day) back below $102, where I said to our Members at 11:34:

There goes $102 on oil!  Congrats to the players!  That's the new stop line, of course. 

That was a very quick $1,000 PER CONTRACT profit on /CL and, right after that, we got the plane crash news so we increased our hedges in our Short-Term Portfolio and we added BA July $128 puts at $1.25 (because it was a BA plane involved in the incident) and they finished the day at $2.18 (up 74%) as well as DAL Aug $37 puts at $1.50, which were already $1.92 by the day's end (up 28%).  I don't like to take advantage of tragedies like that – but it was the fastest way to add good protection to our portfolios.  

YUM had a bit of a tragedy yesterday and the net 0.30 bearish trade
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Which Way Wednesday – Fed Minutes Pending

SPY 5 MINUTEFed day (again). 

Yesterday was TERRIBLE, with volume finally coming back – and it was all downhill, with 3x more declining volume than advancing.  Still, as you can see from Dave Fry's SPY chart, the fix was in and the failure to hold $196.50 during trading hours was corrected at the bell by the powers that be, forcing the Market-on-Close suckers (401K, IRA, ETFs) to pay an extra 0.2% for their fills

There's something strangely comforting about playing a rigged game like this.  I yesterday's live webcast, we were able to make a quick $150 per contract playing a very predictable bounce in the Russell Futures (you can see the Webinar Replay HERE).  

Of course that was small potoatoes compared to the trade ideas we gave you in yesterday's morning post (which you can have delivered to you every day by subscribing here) as the TZA Aug $14 calls shot up from 0.91 to $1.20 - up 32% for the day.  

The QQQ calls I mentioned were the July $97 puts and we closed those out at $2.30, up 47% in less than a full day.  

With returns like that, we could compound $1,000 into $1M in no time at all!  wink

Though they were, in fact, small positions, our entire Short-Term Portfolio jumped up 2% on the day – as it's positioned bearish to protect our much larger and still bullish ($500K) Long-Term Portfolio, which is weathering this little storm quite nicely as we wisely moved it to mainly cash when we thought the market was toppy.  

Now we anxiously anticipate earnings and the potential to bargain-hunt some more.  

As you can see from our Big Chart, the Nasdaq and Russell were saved by their 5% lines (2.5% on the RUT) but the NYSE failed their critical 11,000 line and now we are 3 of 5 bearish and that means we lean bearish until one of our 3 lagging indices gets back over their line.  


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Monday Mayhem – FBI Busts 22 Penny Stock Scammers

Operation "Penny Pincher" nabbed 22 penny stock pumpers.

As I often point out to our Members, a stock doesn't have to be a penny to be a penny stock – any stock with a market cap under $100M is generally what we're talking about – regardless of the share price.  

That's because the stock can be easily influenced by exactly the kind of action the FBI proved is RAMPANT in this industry – a single trader can, for a fee, move money into the stock and send the prices skyrocketing – then press releases are put out to whip retail investors into a frenzy and they follow with their money and, usually, get burned.  

Of course, the same thing happens with mid-cap stocks as well and even large-caps – it's just that the people manipulating those stocks are generally better at covering their tracks!  22 is the number of people the FBI caught in the short period of time an operation like this can run before word gets out that their cover people are conducting a sting.  Imagine how many other must be out there!

Obviously the markets are manipulated.  We know CEOs and their Boards worry about the stock price – the minute they begin to worry about the stock price, manipulation is sure to follow.  That's the way the system is designed.  We have a Fed who worries about the price of the market and they manipulate it too!  It's our job simply to be aware of the manipulation and take it into account in our trading and investing decisions.  

Back on June 12th, I began a series of articles pointing out that oil and gasoline prices were being manipulated into the holiday weekend.  Oil shot up to $107.68 that day and stayed between $105 and $107.50 through June but the EXTREME lack of actual demand we warned you about.  This morning, oil is below $104 and up $3,500 per contract from a short at $107.50 – a trade idea we highlighted for our readers Friday morning, June 13th

You can subscribe to Philstockworld and get interesting trade ideas


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Friday – NYMEX Terrorists Stop Delivery of 144M Barrels of Oil to US!

Help, we're being attacked!  

Not by foreign terrorists, but by the market manipulators who trade at the NYMEX and FAKE Billions of barrels of orders each month in order to drive the price of petroleum higher for US Consumers.  Not only do the FAKE demand during the month, but they also then CANCEL the FAKE orders in order to create ARTIFICIAL supply shortages – just ahead of the summer driving season.  

This is Financial Terrorism of the highest order yet our Government sends no troops out to the trading floor and orders no drone strikes on the ivory towers where the Banksters mastermind these attacks on the US economy every month, costing American Citizens hundred for Billions of Dollars every year in excess energy costs.  

Last Friday, I told you that the 172,551 open contracts that guaranteed delivery of 172,551,000 barrels of crude to the US in July were FAKE and that all but 20,000 of them would be canceled by today.  This morning, there are only 28,550 open contracts remaining.  That means that 144 MILLION barrels of oil that were scheduled for delivery to supply the US in July have been CANCELED, in order to create an artificial shortage of 36M barrels per week next month.  

Click for
Chart
Current Session Prior Day Opt's
Open High Low Last Time Set Chg Vol


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Monday Mayhem – Iraq Kicks it up a Notch

Iraq shiite militia

“A well-regulated militia, being necessary to the security of a free state, the right of the people to keep and bear arms shall not be infringed.”

Iraqi citizens are taking it to the streets to stop the Sunni Militant advance that has now moved on to 
Saadiya, a "city" of 20,000 people which leads the US media morons to conclude that they are just about to take Baghdad, a city of 5,672,513.  The MSM plays on American's complete lack of geographical knowledge and poor math skills to excuse the profiteering by their sponsors
(Banksters and Energy Companies) that has driven the price of oil in America up 7% this month – even though oil wasn't this high during most of the actual war in Iraq.  

iraqAnyone who actually knows anything about war knows that the ISIL doesn't have the men, equipment or supply lines to hold what they have now, let alone march on Baghdad, let alone move another 200 miles south towards the nation's oil fields – but that doesn't fit the story the media is spinning, so it doesn't get any play.  

As noted by the New York Times (and pretty much no other paper) the goal of the ISIL is to provoke a civil war in Iraq and many of their clams of captured cities and Shi'ite executions are nothing but propaganda meant to incite riots.  As I said last week, if you follow the money, it trickles down from the $2Bn monthly windfall this unrest is giving NYMEX traders, not to mention the 90M barrels of Global oil sold each day for +$7 ($19Bn per month), 2M of which (+$420M per month) comes from Iraq itself.  

Despite all the unrest, our $107.50 oil short from Friday's post is still going strong at $107 this morning (up $500 per contract) and we're still shorting at the $107 line (those of us not so crazy as to leave shorts on over the weekend) as we're hoping to see some capitulation on the 154,000 contract that remain open (1,000…
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$500 Friday – Follow Philstockworld For Futures Fun!

Wheeeeee!

Our morning Alert to our Members (and Tweeted to our Followers) made over $500 already this morning.  How did you start your day?  

In just 5 minutes we made our first $250 (per contract) of the morning and then we got a chance to re-load at $107.50 at 3:50 where we shorted it again (also noted in our Live Member Chat Room) and second time was already a charm as we got a much nicer run – this time all the way down to $106.75 for a $750 PER CONTRACT gain.  

We're still shorting oil as it retests the $107 line and, if you read yesterday's post, you know why we are shorting oil already but this morning, if you want the late, authoritive word on the subject, the IEA just (7:58 EST) released a statement:

A lightning advance by jihadists across northern Iraq has rekindled concern on oil markets, but the IEA has cautioned that supplies from the leading exporter may not be at immediate risk.

In the past week militants have swept across northern Iraq and were closing in on the capital Baghdad, sparking fears that OPEC's number two producer could be hit and sending oil prices to their highest levels of the year.

'Concerning as the latest events in Iraq may be, they might not for now, if the conflict does not spread further, put additional Iraqi oil supplies immediately at risk,' the Paris-based International Energy Agency said on Friday, on a cautionary note in its monthly oil market report.

USO WEEKLYIn other words, exactly what I told you yesterday!  Of course, CNBC has not reported this news (so far, I'm only finding the report in Australia) – they are still busy mongering fear to
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Thursday Thrust – Rent-A-Rebel Pops Oil Over $106 Just in Time for the Holidays

The boyz are back in town!  

By boyz, I mean al-Qeada and by town, I mean Tikrit, which is about 40 miles from Baghdad which has "dad" in it and Father's day is Sunday so now you are all caught up on the Middle East.

Oh, and that's not picture of the rebel attackers – that's a picture of the Iraqi "army" mounting a response to "dozens" of rebels who came into town "a hootin' and a hollerin'" and shooting up the place.  As I pointed out to our Members, with 200,000,000 fake orders for July oil deliveries that have to be canceled by next Friday – all it costs is $10M to pay al-Qeada to cause a ruckus and oil pops $2 overnight and the contract holders make an extra $400,000,000 – a very nice return on their investment.  CNN had footage of the attack:

As you can see, the situation is dire – until they get a new sheriff.  Meanwhile, oil is over $106 (7:45) and it was over $106 earlier and we shorted the cross below the line in our Live Member Chat room at 6:37 and picked up a quick $250 per contract at $105.75 and we'll short any cross below any .50 line with tight stops above on the way down – as, eventually, there will be a new sheriff – or at least a shareef

At the moment, oil is back over $106 and we're ready to re-load (at $106.50 with very tight stops).  As we did yesterday, we're happy to make $250-$500 per move as it wriggles around in the channel.  You can't beat these guys – may as well join them!  

We'll likely add USO puts or SCO (ultra-short oil) longs to our Short-Term Portfolio with an eye towards oil going no higher than $110 into the July 4th weekend (as we discussed in Tuesday's Webinar) but failing to hold that, or even $105, for an extended period.  Meanwhile, we'll keep an eye on the advancing al-Qeada forces as our Corporate Media makes the biggest possible mountain out of this mole-hill to justify their sponsors jacking…
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Monday Market Movement – Can We Go Higher?

Record highs! 

I know it sounds like a broken record (kids don't even know what that means) to say "record highs" over and over again, but that's what the Federally fueled rally has given us – over and over again.  

Certainly the Fed remains EXTREMELY accomodative but they also stand to lose hundreds of Billions of Dollars on their current bond-holdings if rates ever do rise (because they hold Trillions of low-rate bonds, which lose value if higher-rate bonds become available) – so how long can this game last?

It's not just the Fed, of course – other people do buy our bonds (and hold our bonds) and, right now, the people holding high-interest bonds (5%+) are sitting on a gold mine as they are far more valuable than 2-3% bonds.  What happens when that begins to unwind?  Suddenly there will be a flood of bonds hitting the street at 5%+ that the Government, who still borrow $50Bn per month, will have to compete with to raise capital.  Doing this at the same time as the Fed is withdrawing their stimulus can be a disaster.  

We were talking about inflationay pressure in Member Chat this morning and anyone who has a stomach has some idea of what the real inflation rate is in this World.  This chart is from India, where inflation has "slowed" to 8.64% but last year's 15% average led to the ousting of the old government in the recent election.  

Revolution is a slow process, especially in democracies – where the population has the illusion of choice.  We are always enticed by the chance to "throw the bums out" in a few years but then, inevitably, the new bums are just as bad and then we want to throw them out too. 

That's because you can't fix a broken system when everyone is playing just a slight variation on the same news.  The way our own Government measures inflation is a joke, because 57% of the measured inflation rate is Owner's Equivalent Rent, which means, even if you are not buying a house, when your house gets more affordable (lower price, cheaper mortgage), that's considered to detract from the total rate of inflation of everything else with…
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The End of May – Heading into June with CASH!!!

I hurt myself today
To see if I still feel
I focus on the pain
The only thing that's real – Nine Inch Nails

Were we wrong to cash out?  

It's hard to feel bad about taking a 19% profit off the table after just 6 months (in our $500,000 Long-Term Portfolio) but we had another low-volume pump-job yesterday that sent some of the positions we closed up sharply and left us regretting our timing – just a little.  

Still, the time to sell your positions is when other people are buying, not while everyone is panicking.  We got great exit prices and, on the whole, it was fairly stress-free.  S&P 1,920 was our predicted top and we pulled the trigger to take the money and run at 1,910 because, as experience has taught us – it doesn't pay to be greedy! 

Last week and this week, I laid out my case for why the economy is not as good as it seems and certainly not good enough to be paying all-time highs for stocks.  As you can see from the chart on the left – I'm certainly not the only one who thinks so as the "smart money" has flown out of the market this year, taking advantage of each record high to sell, Sell, SELL!!!

We were a little more patient, we moved our Conservative Income Portfolio ($500,000) to cash at the end of March and avoided the April sell-off and have since been buying bargain stocks in that portfolio.  We had left our more aggressive Long-Term Portfolio ($500,000) on the table but this last leg of the rally left it up a ridiculous 19% for the year – and that's halfway to our best-case goal so it's a good time to take a break, step back, and see how the market handles early June.  

SPY 5 MINUTEIt's not like we can't find anything to do with our cash.  In additions to our usual Futures trading, we still have our Short-Term ($100,000), Butterfly ($100,000) and $25,000 Portfolios to play with and, since Wednesday
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Tuesday Topics – Market Manipulation, Oil Inventories and the Death of Democracy

SPY 5 MINUTEIs this a joke?

As we thought, yesterday's volume was very low – it was actually the 2nd lowest day of the year,  that didn't stop the Nikkei and the Hang Seng from following us up half a point but Shanghai was flat at 2,008, dropping 10 points from its pumped up open and I'm sorry but you are NUTS to be too bullish in this market when that index is in danger of failing 2,000.  

I don't mean not bullish at all – our LTP is still 100% bullish but it's hedged by the STP, which is mostly bearish.  Just – BE CAREFUL!!!

Did you catch that news item above? "Shinzo Abe turned to Nobel laureate Robert Shiller to try to

restore a vital ingredient of his economic revolution: optimism."  That's the World we're living in now – Central Bankers aren't even ashamed to admit that they manipulate the news and take actions aimed at making you THINK the economy is recovering.  

That's based on the old "truism" that, if people are optimistic, the economy will improve but it's FLAWED because consumers no longer have any discretionary income to spend and they don't have any savings and small businesses, who still employ 80% of the workers, don't have any money to spend either.  

They have shifted the bulk of the discretionary GDP to the top 0.01% who don't spend it at all but use it to consolidate their empires.  All these old economic rules don't apply to an oligarchy – every act of stimulus only serves to make the rich richer and push the rest of the country further into debt.  Sure, the rich are in debt too but a guy with $1Bn owes the same $164,000 per family as the guy with $100,000 does.  

Not only that, but when you tax the top 0.01% 15-20% but tax the bottom 99.99% 35%, the money just keeps funneling to
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Help One Of Our Own PSW Members

"Hello PSW Members –

This is a non-trading topic, but I wanted to post it during trading hours so as many eyes can see it as possible.  Feel free to contact me directly at jennifersurovy@yahoo.com with any questions.

Last fall there was some discussion on the PSW board regarding setting up a YouCaring donation page for a PSW member, Shadowfax. Since then, we have been looking into ways to help get him additional medical services and to pay down his medical debts.  After following those leads, we are ready to move ahead with the YouCaring site. (Link is posted below.)  Any help you can give will be greatly appreciated; not only to help aid in his medical bill debt, but to also show what a great community this group is.

http://www.youcaring.com/medical-fundraiser/help-get-shadowfax-out-from-the-darkness-of-medical-bills-/126743"

Thank you for you time!

 
 

Phil's Favorites

There Is No Security in Bonds Right Now

There Is No Security in Bonds Right Now

Courtesy of  

Fairly Priced?

US stocks dropped on Thursday, after news broke that someone shot down a Malaysian passenger airplane over eastern Ukraine. Then came the report that Israel had ordered a ground assault on Gaza. The Dow lost 161 points. Gold shot up $17 an ounce.

This comes only days after the Princess of Peace, Janet Yellen, assured investors that most stocks were fairly priced. We don’t doubt that she was right. Prices are ...



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Chart School

S&P 500 Snapshot: Record Intraday and Closing Highs

Courtesy of Doug Short.

Key indexes around the globe are exhibiting little volatility in the wake global conflict. The Nikkei and Dow closed the day down 0.10% and 0.16%, respectively. The Eurozone's STOXX 50 was up 0.12%.

The S&P 500 took center stage for US indexes, setting new intraday and closing records despite ongoing tensions in Europe and the Middle East. The index opened higher, quickly sold off to its -0.05% intraday low and then rallied to a record intraday high, up 0.29%. After a minor lunch-hour dip, it spent the afternoon in a narrow trading range to its 0.18% gain for a record close.

The yield on the 10-year note ended the day at 2.48%, unchanged from yesterday's close. It is now only 4 bps above its interim closing low of May 28th.

Here is a 15-minute chart of the past five sessions. The S&P 500 is up 7.50% year-to-date.

...

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Zero Hedge

IRA Contributions Hit Record High As Unpatriotic Americans "Save More, Pay Off Debt, Spend Less"

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by Tyler Durden.

In what could be the most unpatriotic report ever, Fidelity reports that average IRA contributions for tax year 2013 reached $4,150 - an all-time high. That's great news, right? Not if you ask Janet Yellen as Fidelity notes younger investors, those in their 20s, 30s and 40s, are adopting the strongest savings behaviors as Americans are "saving more, paying off debt, and spending less." This is not acceptable in the new normal, don't they know debt is the bridge between hard work and play?

 

...

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All About Trends

Mid-Day Update

Reminder: David is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

Click here for the full report.




To learn more, sign up for David's free newsletter and receive the free report from All About Trends - "How To Outperform 90% Of Wall Street With Just $500 A Week." Tell David PSW sent you. - Ilene...

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Insider Scoop

Relaxed Regulations Highlight Nuclear ETFs

Courtesy of Benzinga.

The Environmental Protection Agency is considering a review of its 1977 rule that limits the amount of whole-body radiation that any member of the public can be exposed to as a result of the uranium fuel cycle.

While they have not made any immediate determination to change the current level of 0.25 millisieverts per year of allowable radiation, they are reviewing the scientific data to decide if changes need to be made.

Items under review include water resource protection, spent fuel storage facilities and alternative technologie...



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Option Review

Sizable Call Spread Trades On Orexigen

A large call spread initiated on Orexigen Therapeutics, Inc. (Ticker: OREX) on Monday morning looks for shares in the name to rally approximately 30% by September expiration. The September expiration is noteworthy as the company awaits the results of the FDA’s review of its resubmitted New Drug Application (NDA) for NB32, an investigational medication being evaluated for weight loss, after the review was extended for three months back in June. The upcoming Prescription Drug User Fee Act (PDUFA) date is September 11, 2014, according to a press release issued by the company. Shares in Orexigen today are up roughly 0.40% at $5.34 as of 2:15 p.m. ET.

...

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Sabrient

Sector Detector: Bulls remain unfazed by borderline Black Swans

Courtesy of Sabrient Systems and Gradient Analytics

Despite a highly eventful week in the news, not much has changed from a stock market perspective. No doubt, investors have grown immune to the daily reports of geopolitical turmoil, including Ukraine vs. Russia for control of the eastern regions, Japan’s dispute with China over territorial waters, Sunni vs. Shiite for control of Iraq, Christians being driven out by Islamists, and other religious conflicts in places like Nigeria and Central African Republic. But last Thursday’s news of the Malaysian airliner tragically getting shot down over Ukraine, coupled with Israel’s ground incursion into Gaza, had the makings of a potential Black Swan event, which in my view is the only thing that could derail the relentless bull march higher in stocks.

Nevertheless, when it became clear that the airline...



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OpTrader

Swing trading portfolio - week of July 21st, 2014

Reminder: OpTrader is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

This post is for all our live virtual trade ideas and daily comments. Please click on "comments" below to follow our live discussion. All of our current  trades are listed in the spreadsheet below, with entry price (1/2 in and All in), and exit prices (1/3 out, 2/3 out, and All out).

We also indicate our stop, which is most of the time the "5 day moving average". All trades, unless indicated, are front-month ATM options. 

Please feel free to participate in the discussion and ask any questions you might have about this virtual portfolio, by clicking on the "comments" link right below.

To learn more about the swing trading virtual portfolio (strategy, performance, FAQ, etc.), please click here ...



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Stock World Weekly

Stock World Weekly

Newsletter writers are available to chat with Members regarding topics presented in SWW, comments are found below each post.

Here's the latest Stock World Weekly. Please use your PSW user name and password to log in. (You may take a free trial here.)

#452331232 / gettyimages.com ...

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Market Shadows

Danger: Falling Prices

Danger: Falling Prices

By Dr. Paul Price of Market Shadows

 

We tried holding up stock prices but couldn’t get the job done. Market Shadows’ Virtual Value Portfolio dipped by 2% during the week but still holds on to a market-beating 8.45% gain YTD. There was no escaping the downdraft after a major Portuguese bank failed. Of all the triggers for a large selloff, I’d guess the Portuguese bank failure was pretty far down most people's list of "things to worry about." 

All three major indices gave up some ground with the Nasdaq composite taking the hardest hi...



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Digital Currencies

Bitcoin Vs Gold - The Infographic

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by Tyler Durden.

While Marc Faber has said "I will never sell my gold," he also noted "I like the idea of Bitcoin," and the battle between the 'alternative currencies' continues. The following infographic provides a succinct illustration of the similarities and differences between gold and bitcoin.

Please include attribution to www.jmbullion.com with this graphic.

...

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Pharmboy

Biotechs & Bubbles

Reminder: Pharmboy is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

Well PSW Subscribers....I am still here, barely.  From my last post a few months ago to now, nothing has changed much, but there are a few bargins out there that as investors, should be put on the watch list (again) and if so desired....buy a small amount.

First, the media is on a tear against biotechs/pharma, ripping companies for their drug prices.  Gilead's HepC drug, Sovaldi, is priced at $84K for the 12-week treatment.  Pundits were screaming bloody murder that it was a total rip off, but when one investigates the other drugs out there, and the consequences of not taking Sovaldi vs. another drug combinations, then things become clearer.  For instance, Olysio (JNJ) is about $66,000 for a 12-week treatment, but is approved for fewer types of patients AND...



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Promotions

See Live Demo Of This Google-Like Trade Algorithm

I just wanted to be sure you saw this.  There’s a ‘live’ training webinar this Thursday, March 27th at Noon or 9:00 pm ET.

If GOOGLE, the NSA, and Steve Jobs all got together in a room with the task of building a tremendously accurate trading algorithm… it wouldn’t just be any ordinary system… it’d be the greatest trading algorithm in the world.

Well, I hate to break it to you though… they never got around to building it, but my friends at Market Tamer did.

Follow this link to register for their training webinar where they’ll demonstrate the tested and proven Algorithm powered by the same technological principles that have made GOOGLE the #1 search engine on the planet!

And get this…had you done nothing b...



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About Phil:

Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

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Ilene is editor and affiliate program coordinator for PSW. She manages the site market shadows, archives, more. Contact Ilene to learn about our affiliate and content sharing programs.

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