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Friday Virtual Portfolio Moves

Posted April 27, 2007 at 9:42 am | Permalink (Edit)

BIDU – what a Jackpot – $23 for the June $105s and just $22 for the May $105s – I was worried we’d get 0 on the spread. If you are still in the $105s, rather than sell the ones you have you can sell the $115s, which carry a pretty good premium and should give you a good cushion but I’m happy to take the cash.

Posted April 27, 2007 at 9:45 am | Permalink (Edit)

MSFT – I’m pretty disappointed with the double but we’ll take it! Selling the $30s for no less than .80 (hoping for a bounce here) is a good idea over the weekend and I’ll buy them back for $1 on mo. XXX

Posted April 27, 2007 at 9:52 am | Permalink (Edit)

Rally on expected Fed easing – economy is down but not out and housing was 85% of the problem with the other big hit coming from less governement spending, not really a bad thing!

SNDK moving up on the loss. I’m holding off on buying out my caller for now.

Posted April 27, 2007 at 10:08 am | Permalink (Edit)

QCOM is an accumulate here, sell-off for them seems unwarranted. I’m willing to go with the current $45s at .95, the May $95s are $1.70 so you’re getting you money’s worth with 3 weeks to go.

CME suddenly woke up! $530s as a dangerous momentum play for $12

Posted April 27, 2007 at 10:26 am | Permalink (Edit)

CME – will be selling the $540s for $8 if it crosses down below $526 against $530s, that will put time on my side for the weekend.

BRCM is on the 5% rule, until they break $33.50 this is not a bounce. If they can’t crack that they are likely to head to a new LOD

CMI – what is up with this market? We knew days ago they were going to beat and look at the gain today! That’s just too much, I’m going with the $100 puts as a mo play XXX CDMQT at $2.75 max – out at $2.25 (.50 tstop).

[I apologize for saying $2.75 as I took them for $3.  The problem is by the time I post this it's a minute or two later and on a play like this the price is no longer valid.  In general, I will pay 10% more on strong momentum but I will also bring the stop up.  Also, when the stock crossed $1.50 in profit the stop moves up to .75 on a vlolatile playlike this and I usually add about a quarter for each dollar in profit after that.  Rememer also these are not hard stops, but once the trend breaks, it's time to get out - please feel free to question these and ask during the day as the only real way to teach day trading is by example]

Posted April 27, 2007 at 10:29 am | Permalink (Edit)

WFR – we do buy out our caller into the initial excitement, now .62 as we will sell $60s if things get worse!

Posted April 27, 2007 at 10:40 am | Permalink (Edit)

WFR – the Jan $70s are $5, we bought them for $7 on the 20th (pocketing huge gains from the earlier leaps I will remind you). We sold the $65 calls for $2.40 and just took the guy out for .50 so we are net even(ish) and in position to sell at least 7 more calls against our $5 basis leaps. June $60s are $3.30, that could be a nice pickup if it stays flat but I’m willing to let them go to $2.50 before I sell those as WFR’s earnings were up 100% on 29% revenue growth. I think this is partly the Cramer effect – if they have earnings and don’t go up 20% everybody bails…

Posted April 27, 2007 at 11:04 am | Permalink (Edit)

BRCM – The June/May $35 spread? Of course, that’s a win right, in at .25, now .54 – getting a double on a spread is awsome! You can wait a bit but don’t go lower than .75 on the Junes, that would be a tragic waste of money. If you really want to go for it you can DD on the Junes at .82 for a $1.15 basis and sell 50% of your new total against the May $32.50s for $1.30 putting your total basis down to .50 with 2 months to go just $2 out of the money and it’s the same deal, take the new shares now, set a .75 stop and look to sell for $1.50 or better.

Posted April 27, 2007 at 11:34 am | Permalink (Edit)
CME doing nicely – for future reference, gaining $1.20 on a $3.50 move on the $530s while the $540s (didn’t trigger yet) have gone up just .85. No longer any point to selling them as risk/reward profile has changed (I have a $1.20 profit) so I’m just out here.
Posted April 27, 2007 at 12:04 pm | Permalink (Edit)

CMI – I only got a couple (and I cheated as I paid $3) but this is the 5% rule off the $104.75 non-spike top but is also right about a 20% pullback from the run that started at $74 ($30) so $98.75 is the line to watch for a breakdown or support. Very likely it will be support so I’m getting half out at $6 regardless but right now my stop is $4 on a .50 trail as 33% is pretty good money on a day trade.

Insurance play is still my beloved DIA $131s, doggedly holding onto $1.30 and providing you about .40 per $100 drop in the Dow (but the nice thing is your returns accellerate the worse the Dow does). You can work out what you need pretty easily because the Dow was at 13K on Weds am and 12.9K on Tues am so you just have to look at how the calls you are looking to protect were doing on those days.

Posted April 27, 2007 at 12:42 pm | Permalink (Edit)

CMI – now you have to see if we get a 20% bounce off the 5% drop that we have now clearly established as a correct turning point. A bounce of less than 20% ($1.05 to $99.80) would be a bad sign and could lead to a breach of the 5% mark so look for that range ($98.75 to $99.80) to form some kind of consolidation for a while and then we see which way this goes.

Posted April 27, 2007 at 1:01 pm | Permalink (Edit)

RIG – $7.80 is good for me, I’m going to reposition closer to earnings.

HAL coming on strong. $32.50s still .50 XXX

IGW $65s have very small premium at $1.35 if the S&P breaks 1,495 again I’m going to give them a spin.

SLB now coming alive June $80s for $1.60 XXX

  • Posted April 27, 2007 at 1:38 pm | Permalink (Edit)

    PBR $105s for $1.88 XXX (by the way, I have a ton of oil puts so these are covers!)

  • Posted April 27, 2007 at 2:45 pm | Permalink (Edit)

    T has been a huge disappointment but I like the ‘09 $40s for $3.95 as an accumulate XXX

    DNDN – yeah good luck on that! I’m still trying to get the $15 calls for $4 so I can sell the $17.50s when they bounce to $4 although I now have a fallback of selling the June $17.50s for $4 if I don’t get it on the Mays because I have a $2.50 advantage over my caller and, after the decision I imagine enough of his $6.25 premium will evaporate to make me at least even. XXX

    Posted April 27, 2007 at 2:52 pm | Permalink (Edit)

    BBY (6/19) – I’m calling a maybe bottom here. Buying Jan $50s for $3.85 XXX

    Posted April 27, 2007 at 3:12 pm | Permalink (Edit)
    SU – lower taxes (and they’re not lower they’re just not being raised) don’t mean much if you’re not making profits. The $80 puts are being given away at .95 XXX but VERY risky over a weekend.
    Posted April 27, 2007 at 3:33 pm | Permalink (Edit)

    XOM – I’ve been moving mine to the Jan ‘09 $75 puts. I don’t have a margin spread issue, that’s a consideration but I can sell the same puts, for 12 more months, from there as I can with the ‘08 $80s.

    Right now I am 1/2 and 1/2 on the ‘08/09s but I am considering moving 1/2 to the $80s and agressively selling $80 puts for a few months, then moving the ‘08 $80s back. I’m $2.80 down right now so it will only take 3 sales to catch up (hopefully).

    Posted April 27, 2007 at 3:33 pm | Permalink (Edit)
    COST $55s for for .70 – they’re moving and have been on my list PRQEK XXX
    Posted April 27, 2007 at 3:59 pm | Permalink (Edit)

    GG perking up, this is a good time to DD on the July $25s at $1.65

    The Dow can drop 300 points in 2 days and the 10 point out of the money 131 puts are $1.22. By the way, they cost .66 to roll to to June so if I lose .30 5 times (2 times so far) rolling it up and another .60 to move it to June I would be holding DIA June $134 puts for a net of $3.30, which is the price of the current $134s. Meanwhile the Dow would be at 13,400 and I don’t think I’d be too upset about my 50% loss on my protectors.


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