9.3 C
New York
Thursday, March 28, 2024

Thursday/Friday Virtual Portfolio Moves

Posted May 3, 2007 at 9:48 am | Permalink (Edit)

TSO spread, I just mentioned in the other comments that selling your puts into the excitement and then waiting to take out your putter on the bounce is the way to go but it’s tricky. I think we get a bounce to at least $120, maybe $121, then we’ll see what really happens.

Nigerian rebels already returned hostages (I think their wives told them they had to break up the poker game).

Sold TSO $120 puts at $5 against 1/2 my puts, looking for $1-$1.50.

Posted May 3, 2007 at 10:02 am | Permalink (Edit)

INTC – oops, that was June! If it were Jan I’d buy a billion! Still an XXX on that..

Posted May 3, 2007 at 10:32 am | Permalink (Edit)

GOOG – I rarely get out of a spread unless something drastic happens. The June $450 puts came in at $6.40 and the May $470 puts were sold at $8.25 and never hit my roll point (to the $480 puts) at $10 (they are now $14.35). If GOOG goes down my caller still paid a $8.25 premium and I can roll him the other way as the lower puts get to $10. I only have to get lucky once, they have to get lucky for 12 more days!

TSO – If we are very lucky we could get a rare long squeeze as there is a lot of hot money on margin in the stock from non-stop CNBC pumping (Eric Bolling’s favorite stock) combined with a ton of people who are in with a double and would be thrilled to get out at $110. If they

Posted May 3, 2007 at 10:32 am | Permalink (Edit)

GOOG – I rarely get out of a spread unless something drastic happens. The June $450 puts came in at $6.40 and the May $470 puts were sold at $8.25 and never hit my roll point (to the $480 puts) at $10 (they are now $14.35). If GOOG goes down my caller still paid a $8.25 premium and I can roll him the other way as the lower puts get to $10. I only have to get lucky once, they have to get lucky for 12 more days!

LOL Z – no wonder I had to have my first real disagreement with you!

TSO – If we are very lucky we could get a rare long squeeze as there is a lot of hot money on margin in the stock from non-stop CNBC pumping (Eric Bolling’s favorite stock) combined with a ton of people who are in with a double and would be thrilled to get out at $110. If they can’t break it back up (while oil is falling) this could turn into a catastrophe. Oil just broke $63 and $62.50 will be a psychological defeat but the convergance is at $63 (chart Happy?) where we could start to see some real capitulation as there are still over half a billion barrels scheduled for OK delivery betwen now and August, a bit much even for a busy summer driving season.

Also, with 2-3 years of consumers swithing to case that have better mileage, the net effect of summer driving could be an exaggerated drop in demand as longer trips get better mileage so, unless they expand the country or add a lot more cars (most automakers show that’s not happening) people should use less actual gas this summer than last.

TASR – D’oh, I forgot to talk about that. Cramer finally caught on to my France premise last night. That’s what today’s spike is all about. It’s holding up nicely but if you don’t take half off with a triple I’ll come taser you myself!!!!

HOC – they are expected to double earnings and they are up over 50% from October when they earned $1.27 a share for the second consecutive Q but last Q was .83 and they blamed it on whatever but this Q, if they don’t make $1.10, they’ll be going down fast. The June $60 puts are $1.25 and, if we are lucky, they will give us a quick gain in sympathy to TSO and we can get half out before earnings.

Posted May 3, 2007 at 10:44 am | Permalink (Edit)

Out of FDG calls, taking BTU June $45 puts for .70 XXX

QLGC – we have the Jun $17.50s for $1 avg. Still there.

FDX all other new plays. I want to be really clear about this. I am scaling back positions. If this isn’t a top, we’re going to 13,500 or 14,000 so I can buy more but if the S&P doesn’t crack 1,500 – we are going to have a 300-point correction minimum (as that’s only 2%).

I have to go for a NY meeting (busy week) so be careful out there. I should be back in the afternoon but my attitiude it that I am being offered prices today that I would have sold everything for on Monday so there is no sense being greedy about it.

DNDN – for .35 I will taks the spread between the ‘09 $22.50 and the ‘09 $25 as a craps roll (making 8x in 2 years is pretty good if it works out). XXX

Posted May 3, 2007 at 11:28 am | Permalink (Edit)

IBN – Still liking the Dec $45s at $3.50 (up .50 from Tues pick) but we are selling Jun $40s on a spike as they currently have a $1.80 premium. No hurry as it may go up here but, if it goes down, don’t get less than $1.50 premium or less than $2.50. XXX

TSO – there are funds that are going to get crushed if this tanks so expect all sorts of shenanigans to try to support it, especailly through this expiration period. There aren’t many June+ contracts by comparison so this thing can go into free fall after expiratation.

NYX, ICE… All moving up well. If you sold ICE puts you should have stopped out (bought back) your callers!!! XXX $10KP – Once you do that you need to put strict trailing stops on your own calls of course.

Posted May 3, 2007 at 11:35 am | Permalink (Edit)

Posted May 2, 11:05 AM |

FDX – I’d go with oil $55 but I bought back my caller so you’re doing better than me. I like FDX long-term and if they move and UPS moves then I will also go back to YRCW with the July $45s at .65 for a start. XXX

Posted May 4, 2007 at 10:06 am | Permalink (Edit)

SHLD – let it sell off and we will roll down or DD – I’m protected with a $190 caller and I may just go naked into earnings now.. I will take out the caller (now .73) befroe the EOD and if we break $180 I’ll sell the $180s (now $5) as a mo play but my heart isn’t in it.

MSFT is a buy too. How does this hurt them? The company’s been dead weight for a year and now they do something exciting and people sell – what is with investors? MSFT p/e 17 at $290Bn, YHOO p/e at 45 at $44Bn. If MSFT pays $50Bn and you say that is only worth $20Bn at their p/e, it dillutes them a grand total of 10% but YHOO spends $5.5Bn on operations so if MSFT cuts that 25% that’s $1.4Bn back x 17 is $23Bn so MSFT’s net cap loss is -7Bn (-2.5%), right about $30. If we go below there I’ll start accumulating some long calls.

Posted May 4, 2007 at 10:55 am | Permalink (Edit)

PQ – D’oh! Great one Z! $12.50s have no premium at .62 and make nice mo plays. XXX as long as oil stays up.

YHOO – all out of the May $32.50s at $1.70, out of the June $30s at $4.20. Buying Oct $35s for $2.10 as the deal will be rocky and may attract competitive bids and, even if it’s going through, I can always sell calls against as the current $32.50s have a .90 premium and the $35s are .72. XXX

FIZ holding up well despite JSDA downgrade (-10%). I’m writing this up on the weekend so fair warning but Jones unit sales are up and FIZ disributes it. Just like a driller, their gain is Jones’ pain to some extent. The fact that it seems to be holding $16 means we’re not alone on this one anymore. The name is too catchy for Cramer to ignore and we can always sell the July $15s for $2 so I still like them at $16 (up .70).

RIMM – $140 is usually my magic number for puts but its scary to be bearish in this market! I have to take some June $130 puts for $2.25 out of principal though and I can sell $140 puts on mo if it reallly breaks up. XXX

CHK squawk – all I hear is lots of drilling, those rate reductions won’t last if they’re going to drive demand like that. Done with the puts even though, too many positives for CHK. XXX

OVTI – already sold June $15s at .80 at $1.20 I would sell it again if I could as that’s a great premium against a $3 leap.

Posted May 4, 2007 at 11:06 am | Permalink (Edit)

DIA puts – why do you want some? I’ve got plenty and, while I’m not dumping them over the weekend, I’ve taken enough off the table where I don’t feel I need to keep pressing them but they are still my put of choice as a protector. S&P 1,509 doesn’t bode well for any shorts.

DNDN, tempting as it is the spreads aren’t as risk/reward attractive as they were earlier in the week. Due to the time crunch, I do like the Jun $35s at $3, selling the May $30s on any loss of momentum (currently $3.65) so XXX for that but not very safe.

Posted May 4, 2007 at 11:15 am | Permalink (Edit)

CCJ – thanks! I like the Jan $60s for $3.60, will sell calls later but they are only up $1.40 in 2 weeks while the stock is up $5. XXX

Posted May 4, 2007 at 11:20 am | Permalink (Edit)

DNDN – if that’s right about brokers then the $20 puts are a good mo play here with tight stops! XXX

SHLD – for sure take out your caller with that profit but I wouldn’t sell again unless they break $180 and I’m pretty sure their earnings are after expiration so I want the full premium by selling the $180 calls for $4 ish if I have to as a mo play.

Subscribe
Notify of
0 Comments
Inline Feedbacks
View all comments

Stay Connected

157,452FansLike
396,312FollowersFollow
2,280SubscribersSubscribe

Latest Articles

0
Would love your thoughts, please comment.x
()
x