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Wednesday Virtual Portfolio Moves

Posted May 16, 2007 at 10:03 am | Permalink (Edit)

SHFL Jun $17.50s – no I was having trouble justifying the extra dollar and decided that .75 would be a fine price to pay (splitting the difference between the .50 we started with and the $1 we ended with) so I have a bid in for that this morning.

Posted May 16, 2007 at 10:08 am | Permalink (Edit)

EBAY – I took a DD at .55 so my basis is not .65 but I will likely leave these be and take the Oct $35s (now $2.28) and sell the June $32.50s (now $1.48) against those to recoup my loss using the June $35s as a break in case the stock jumps up. XXX

Posted May 16, 2007 at 10:17 am | Permalink (Edit)

QCOM – pinned. I have the naked Jan $45s at $4.35 and I didn’t want to risk selling the Mays but I will take .50 if I can get it. XXX

MOT – that’s good news! Check out his effect on C. I’ve already got leaps (I alway own MOT) and I’m going to grab the June $18s for .62 (.50 premium) XXX I think they are pinning to $18 as they do have calls there.

Posted May 16, 2007 at 10:30 am | Permalink (Edit)

DE – got a little ahead of themselves plus lots of reasons to pin $120.

Have my finger on the VLO $72.50s at .55 in case inventory goes against us as I already have plenty of puts. Beware the head fake though…

Oops, there goes VLO, inventories must be bad but CNBC is in commercials

Posted May 16, 2007 at 10:32 am | Permalink (Edit)

Crude + 1MB
Gasoling + 1.7Mb
Distilates + 1.1Mb and CNBC weathergirl says it’s in-line! LIES!!!

Also, refinery utilization is 89.5, a bit low and that is not bullish for oil because it means that imports are rising and that is bad for refinery margins. Now would be a good time to take out that putter!

Posted May 16, 2007 at 10:40 am | Permalink (Edit)

COP June $70 puts at $1.25 XXX

Posted May 16, 2007 at 11:00 am | Permalink (Edit)

MOT – when I say taking a call and something like .50 premium it’s because I XXX the call at that premium, not nec the exact price.

JWN – what killed SKS was a big drop in Childrens sales but people who shop Nordstrom’s down have kids so I think they’ll do very well. The Jun $55s are just $1.10 which is too cheap to interest me in selling but I like the Oct $60s for $1.71 against the July $55s for $1.80 since it doesn’t cost anything to play and at $55 I owe my caller $3 but I’m pretty happy paying $3 for in the money Oct $60s if they are doing so well… XXX

Posted May 16, 2007 at 11:13 am | Permalink (Edit)

NMX is getting wiped out on their 20% OPBL stake. That’s $27M down the tubes!… We talked about this weeks ago at OBPL screwed up the Bank of Montreal’s gas trading costing them $400M. NMX will scaveng the platform and I think they will be a buy on the dip here as the loss is large but not devestating for them but I’ve hear 5 different people overstate the damage to NMX by a wide margin.

SOX doing worse, GOOG pathetic again, AAPL negative, Transports diving as oil holds $62.50, gold selling down $7.50 – it’s really time to cut back on positions. I’m going to be taking half off the table on anythng that doesn’t stop out. XXX

Posted May 16, 2007 at 11:20 am | Permalink (Edit)

TSO – don’t be too greedy. If selling half puts you in good shape then do it. We can always use the lovely cash to roll ourselves into lower puts if it keeps going.

Posted May 16, 2007 at 11:27 am | Permalink (Edit)

IBN – way past my target. I will probably take another shot at selling calls but I’m gun shy after yesterday.

Posted May 16, 2007 at 11:37 am | Permalink (Edit)

GLW I only got a few at the open at $3.70 but I’ll give up and pay $3.60 if they hold it for the day but I think they’ll sell down with the market. There is very little premium to sell at this price so I would be fine with buying more leaps at $2.50 and sell a .75 premium on the $22.50s to cover my loss on the first batch but I’m hoping that I will be selling $25s for $1 or better instead.

NMX – don’t know but I’m watching. If they get a big sell-off, maybe $117.5 I don’t think I could resist it.
Yes they scrwed up with this deal but they lost $1.5Bn in market cap recently, kind of a lot and we already know that NYMEX churning is giving them fantastic numbers.

Posted May 16, 2007 at 12:20 pm | Permalink (Edit)

XOM $80 puts from yesterday are still a fun gamble at .22

SU DD on Jun $80 puts at $1.40

GE hanging tough. I couldn’t bring myself to sell the Jnes but I’m certainly holding the Jans for now (up .66 while the Junes are down .12). I won’t let myself go negative on the set though.

AAPL – I’m guessing they are trying to pin it to $100. I still have my Jan $100s (10) and my Jan ‘09 $120s (20) which are offset by 30 Oct $95 puts and I haven’t seen a good reason to sell closer calls or puts against any of them just yet.

Posted May 16, 2007 at 12:34 pm | Permalink (Edit)
Got my $2 drop in VLO – pretty good prediction…
Posted May 16, 2007 at 1:01 pm | Permalink (Edit)

OIH – I was just having a fight with myself as I am trying to resist the urge to take the $160 puts but I think down $2 was the right call on VLO (I took my puts 1/2 off).

Tightening – any uncovered position with certain exceptions like SHLD as they have earnings soon.

Holy cow, CME right back to where they started last Friday! That’s another tempting one with June $530s at $11.15, down from $27 on Monday. XXX if we close positive (the market, not CME) today.

While we could drop 150-200 points by Friday I think that’s what most fund managers are expecting and NOT dropping 100 points by Friday will but me (as a fund manager) heading into the holiday weekend on the wrong side of the market. That will cause me to put money into things that seem like they will rally but should be safe like MSFT, GOOG, MRVL, UPS… solid names that haven’t rallied with the markets.

Posted May 16, 2007 at 1:37 pm | Permalink (Edit)

MRVL – As I was alreay 1/3 down on my Aug $17.50s and as I think they will clear up their mess by next earnings I did a DD on those and will hold them naked but it’s a very risky play.

Gold down $13. If the market is doing this well with falling commodities and a rising dollar this might be an early sign of some very good rotation. If only the Brokers would go away…

Posted May 16, 2007 at 1:50 pm | Permalink (Edit)

AAPL – not that I don’t like them, just that I don’t see any opportunities I particularly like right now. I suppose my Jan ‘09 $120s at $17.10 (.40 more than I paid) would be my favorite at the moment but I came very close to stopping out of these this morning. I wanted to sell the June $110s against them but they dropped from $3.50 to $2.35 while I was thinking about it so now I’m hoping they get back to $3 at least before I sell.

GENZ – in the STP? My thinking is that it’s pinned to expiration so I’m willing to take the chance with the Jne $67.50s as they are a free play (we were paid .55 to take the spread). Probably I will get out at about .40 if it doesn’t work but I will risk $350 on the off chance we could make another $500+.

Posted May 16, 2007 at 2:33 pm | Permalink (Edit)

TSO dropped from $120 to $112 which is 6.66% The 5% rule is $114 so any “bounce” lower than that is meaningless.

Posted May 16, 2007 at 2:59 pm | Permalink (Edit)

Despite great market I am still going ahead and pulling back on positiions.

Posted May 16, 2007 at 3:25 pm | Permalink (Edit)

Cramer – play is not to follow this man! I was almost buying into the HAL logic you guys have been using until Cramer called it a buy and now I am concerned. The “rally” in the OIH is because oil held $62.50 today but they produced a lot of Nat gas last week that nobody used so we could get another bearish sell-off tomorrow. I’m out of TSO and VLO and SU and XOM so I don’t really care but I will jump right back in the puts if they can get back to yesterday’s levels.

Posted May 16, 2007 at 4:07 pm | Permalink (Edit)
Dell, perhaps they shook out enough callers yesterday or perhaps today is the headfake. Either way below $25 is max pain and I will be surprised to see them finish at $26 when the NY lawsuit is such a good reason to take them down. Possible legitimate reason for rally is lawsuit is far less bothersome than people thought it was going to be. I’m going to take $25 puts for fun for .05 XXX Must half out at .10 but DELL is on my buy list as this price.

 


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