8.8 C
New York
Thursday, March 28, 2024

Wednesday Virtual Portfolio Moves

Posted June 6, 2007 at 10:06 am | Permalink (Edit)

Finally got my TWX!

Holy cow – STP up 5% this morning thanks to DIA and QQQQ puts, we’ll see if it sticks. I’m not moving them as they are doing their job, protecting my virtual portfolio but I will pick up July $135 puts if we cross below 13,500 (a real cross, not a spike) and then set tight stops on the others in case we get a recovery. Just getting back to even on the DIA July $137s, which are a 3rd generation roll, is a huge victory.

Posted June 6, 2007 at 10:18 am | Permalink (Edit)

GSK – that’s pretty much back to the original trade, which was selling the $50s for $2.65. The idea is not to have your caller expire worthless but to collect the $1.40 premium he’s paying you and you can’t collect that until July 20th, any moves you make between now and then cost you about 10% of your potential profits as you pay spreads and broker fees. You must be patient for spread plays or they are not for you.

Meanwhile FWLT is going to test $105 and may save the $10KP if it breaks down from there!

If this were a real drop, then gold stocks would be doing better.

IART $300M offer well accepted and stock starting to gain in heavy trading. Sept $55s for $2 look interesting but tough to take calls today.

DIA testing 13,500 for real soon.

Posted June 6, 2007 at 10:25 am | Permalink (Edit)

Sold goog $510s btw – don’t mind having to pay them off if it keeps going up!

  • Posted June 6, 2007 at 10:27 am | Permalink (Edit)

    NFLX $22.50s – mo play xxx

  • Posted June 6, 2007 at 10:45 am | Permalink (Edit)

    June Qs is a good mo play I’ve got a .15 tstop on the July $48 puts but, in gneral, I think holding 13,500 is huge (assuming we do). QQQQ $47s are just .65 as a mo play (.15 tstop, 1/2 out at .80) xxx

    Posted June 6, 2007 at 10:51 am | Permalink (Edit)

    I’m very happy about what I see right now, this is not a big sell-off, just an orderly profit taking so far and the SOX, of all things, is positive!

    Oil is still being incredibly unrealistic though and if we get a big drop it will take the S&P with it, at least for a while which will spook the dow to go below 13,500 so let’s be very careful!

    Posted June 6, 2007 at 10:56 am | Permalink (Edit)

    NFLX – Buing Sept $27.50s for $1.50 and selling June $22.50s for .95 xxx

    Posted June 6, 2007 at 11:02 am | Permalink (Edit)

    GCI doing it agin, big drop and strong recovery.

    DNDN holding up nicely.

    JSDA has bottomed, buying July $17.50s for $1.88, will sell June $17.50s as a mo sell (.15 tstop) XXX

    Posted June 6, 2007 at 11:09 am | Permalink (Edit)

    Mattress plays – we are out of position on these since they were rolled several times. Usually, with the DIA, I will enter whatever costs roughly $1.50 with at least 30 days to go or $2 in the case of July at 40 days. The rule of thumb is buy 1/2 quantity of the next level down when it hits the purchase price of your first level and set a Tstop of .15-.25 on the original set and an identical stop on the lower-priced calls. Repeat all the way down but the stops are soft or you will get spiked out as soon as you sell them and you need to consider what you are protecting (ie. if I’m trying to hold my calls, I may let them ride but if I’m selling off my calls then I will tighten my stops).

    Wow, STP now up 13% since Friday – I guess I was more bearish than I thought! I will post the virtual portfolio tonight but there haven’t been many changes, it’s the mix we went into the weekend with.

    Posted June 6, 2007 at 11:14 am | Permalink (Edit)

    VLO puts – Shorting oil is a religion, you have to have rock-solid faith in the funadmentals and ignore the “scientists” that will assault you in the media to make you feel like you are insane for going against conventional wisdom. That’s what makes it such a good market hedge though, the payoffs are phenominal when they hit and they do tend to follow the market down. If you are not willing to regularly DD and roll (same as with the DIA puts) pretty much all the time, these puts are not for you. Also, you must have the discipline to take it off the table on a gain – LIKE RIGHT NOW I THINK 1/2 OUT ON OIL PUTS IS A GOOD IDEA!. XXX

    Posted June 6, 2007 at 11:41 am | Permalink (Edit)

    LOL Corey – as I said above, it’s got to be a religious calling otherwiise it’s like watching pingpong trying to time your entry. Speaking of sacralidge, I’m selling the TSO $62.50 puts for $3 (if I get it) against my July $60 puts as a bounce off $60 play. XXX

    DIS – taking 20 more at .15 if possible.

    Posted June 6, 2007 at 12:16 pm | Permalink (Edit)

    NFLX – when I say $27.50s, that’s calls. I almost always remember to specify puts with the full word but if the amount is wrong or the play seems out of context then ask for sure as I am in no way mistake proof! As to that trade though, I wrote down the wrong amount and the September $27.50s were just .75 but it’s safer to do that trade with the September $25s at $1.50 as it has less chance of getting away from you. XXX

    Posted June 6, 2007 at 12:59 pm | Permalink (Edit)

    FWLT finally broke $105 but we have to give up on those in the $10KP if they get back over it again. XXX

    $10KP, on the whole, holding up nicely.

    CCJ – June $55s were sold against it yesterday (should have gone for the $50s!) the roll to July $50s has a $1.75 premium so I’m not worried but I’m not sure we won’t close at $55 in the end so patience (where have I heard that before) is the key. It’s a very good time to roll the Jan $60s to the Jan $55s for an extra $1.80 XXX – Bill you said Oct but what I also like is the Sept $50s at $5.60 which lose $2.35 on a $5 move down but gain $3.40 on a $5 move up.

    CLF – no way. If we melt down China is toast and Europe finished at day’s lows with Germany off 2.4% – not the kind of market you bet to recover quickly!

    BRCM/All stocks – Euro close was a disaster, if Asia comes in bad then more of the same so I’m keeping all puts in place, even if we get a run… XXX

    Posted June 6, 2007 at 1:23 pm | Permalink (Edit)

    DIS – wasn’t a DD, just a 1/2 but it’s looking sad isn’t it. This is the pain of trading fundamentals, if I though it was going up right away I would have gone for the Junes.. This is a very low volume flush and they $35s are holding up very well. In the non-$10KP it makes sense to buy the July $35s for .95, sell the $35s for .40, using the $37.50s you already have as an upside stop but, otherwise more than paying for them while leaving you with a close to the money July call (which we could roll back again if things look bad). XXX

    Posted June 6, 2007 at 1:49 pm | Permalink (Edit)

    RIMM – Selling June $165 puts for $3.65 against my $160 puts with a $2.90 basis, now $1.65 – very dangerous but a good way to save the play if I’m lucky.

    Posted June 6, 2007 at 2:00 pm | Permalink (Edit)

    DELL – $27.50 is likely. Makes for a nice butterfly:

    BUY DLQSY JUL 27.50 PUT 0.85
    SELL DLQRY JUN 27.50 PUT 0.45
    BUY DLQGY JUL 27.50 CALL 0.90
    SELL DLQFY JUN 27.50 CALL 0.40

    Will put you out about $100 per 10 you take but a nice spread. XXX

    Posted June 6, 2007 at 3:06 pm | Permalink (Edit)

    OXPS – since you are 10% out of the money I would roll back to Sept and sell the July $27.50s for .60 for a net .10 cost to you to gain 2 months. The in the money July $25s have a $1.15 premium so no headache for you if it jumps up. XXX

    DNA – I have Jan $85s $5.75, now $3.30 against the July $75s at $5, now $3.40. Rolling down to the $80s for $1.85 and selling the same July $75s is a good solution.

    FXI – I have the Jan $120s agaisnt the $112s but we may be in for a big China drop tomorrow so I’m willing to sell the $112s for $3.50 against the July $116s for $3.70. Premium is $1.50 with 7 sessions left.

    DNA – I have Jan $85s $5.75, now $3.30 against the July $75s at $5, now $3.40. Rolling down to the $80s for $1.85 and selling the same July $75s is a good solution.

    GOOG – I bought him back but sold the $510s this morning for $14. My attitude is that if the stock closes over $524 I will be so happy with my September $510s that I really won’t mind paying off my caller. I want to make sure I understand that you own the actual stock, you don’t want to sell it but you have a $490 caller right? Well, you owe him $29 bucks and, since you had $48K to buy at least 100 shares of GOOG I assume you can afford to take him out and sell the July $510s for $27.15 or the July $520s for $21.65, which would still give you nice downside protection AND another $20 or $30 bucks in position in exchange for just 44 days of your time (which is infinite as you own the stock and have no expiration issues). By the way, don’t panice on 5/31 at $506 was excellent advice as the stock went back to $497 the same day – but PLEASE do not misinterpret an off-the cuff statement I may make for a permanent commandment!

    FWLT – painful decision but no as it’s the only naked put in the $10KP so we need it for the insurance in case Asia melts down tomorrow. Europe had a terrible finish and nothing happened here to make them think that was a mistake. I honestly do not have a good exit strategy on the $10KP right now as it’s down about $500 and stuck in neutral but it’s misleading as the June MO puts have way too much premium (.75) and we are waiting for several calls to expire worthless.

    TASR – had the market not been tanking I would have taken them this morning. Going to put them on my accumulate at $10 list. They are naked in the LTP indicating I have supreme confidence in them. We also have 2 sets of covered positions in them.

    Posted June 6, 2007 at 3:21 pm | Permalink (Edit)

    DIA – rolled 1/2 July $137 puts at $3.40 to July $136 puts at July $135 puts at $2.40 (pocketing the $1).

    That gives me 150 $137s, 100 $136s and 150 $136s. XXX

    Posted June 6, 2007 at 3:31 pm | Permalink (Edit)

    TSO – my $62.50 putter just hit at $2.25 (almost no premium) – that’s very strange so be careful with your oil puts…. Rather than get out of my oil puts (I sold half before) I’m going to take some TSO $62.50 CALLS for .75 to cover into tomorrow. XXX

     

    Stay Connected

    157,452FansLike
    396,312FollowersFollow
    2,280SubscribersSubscribe

    Latest Articles