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Friday Virtual Portfolio Moves

Posted September 28, 2007 at 9:34 am | Permalink (Edit)

Sold those extra FSLR Dec $110s for $17 – happy to get paid!

Posted September 28, 2007 at 9:42 am | Permalink (Edit)

Oil sector showing continued strength, probably not a good short for the day but I’ll be shorting some into the close.

FXI posting ATH, about time with China at 27K

Let’s watch that S&P 1,530 for the big breakdown as well as the Nas, which looks strong this morning but SOX are still right at 500 and will lead the Nas lower and 2,700 is critical. The dollar is getting crushed in Europe so our market gets cheaper and cheaper.

VLO taking off and the $70s make a nice mo play, when those stop out it will be time to consider oil puts so I like the $70s at $1.27 with a .25 trailing stop as a mo play. XXX

Posted September 28, 2007 at 9:58 am | Permalink (Edit)

FWLT went nuts, sold the $135 puts for $6.30 to cover my $125 puts, will roll my puts up to $130s for + $1 to cut my risk to $3.50 ($4.80 net basis less $6.30 collected on a $5 spread) if it falls back from $132.

Posted September 28, 2007 at 10:03 am | Permalink (Edit)

Giving up on VLO, got weak and I don’t like the market right now. Lots of silly stocks getting sillier it looks like..

Posted September 28, 2007 at 10:24 am | Permalink (Edit)

TSO very ugly!

FXI – rolled my Jan $180s to 2x Nov $178 puts at $10.67, offset with sale of 1/2 $174 puts at $5 XXX

TSO – holy cow that whole trade is down .30! Really you shouldn’t play these things if you are going to stress out like this. We wanted TSO to go down, and it went down – just a little faster than we thought it would… If you want to duck out now you can roll the Nov $50s to 2x the Jan $45s at $3.70 for + $2 and roll your caller to 2X the Nov $45s for -.50 for a net $1.50 out of pocket to buy yourself $5 in position and a month but he’s still got $1.30 in premium and I’m not giving it to him just because I’m down .30 on the spread…

EMKR $10 is a very powerful barrier for small stocks.

Posted September 28, 2007 at 10:26 am | Permalink (Edit)

Speaking of round numbers, RIMM seems to have had a spot of trouble at $100 8-)

VLO – no, too early, just a loss of momentum made getting out with a .10 loss a good idea. I already have some puts but, if I didn’t, I like the XOM $90 puts for .85 a whole lot!

Posted September 28, 2007 at 10:31 am | Permalink (Edit)

ICE is back to where we shorted it yesterday.

CROX hanging tough.

Lot’s of stop outs, high flyer profit taking on AMZN, DRYS, OIH plays… make sure you are covered and lighten up on calls, this could turn super ugly!!!

Posted September 28, 2007 at 10:38 am | Permalink (Edit)

GG/Any leap – I’d cover with whatever is just in the money, at least for the weekend the FXI drop is very scary, someone expects Asia to gap down Monday and I’ve been predicting a 1,000-point drop since last week so be very cautious.

Posted September 28, 2007 at 11:02 am | Permalink (Edit)

FWLT – dropped caller to $130 puts for $2.70 and DD’d my own $125 puts, just hoping to get even but covering myself against a recovery by these guys.

CROX – Well, you see how those worked out? Now you can roll yourself up to 2x the $70s for $9.75 and roll your caller up to 2x the Nov $65s at $7.50. This takes almost all your money off the table (but you’ll need it for margin) and takes him from being $11 in the money with no premium to paying you $6.20 in premiums and totally covers you from all but $2.25 of a downside wipeout. No matter what earnings are, you will gain that $6.20 in premium, which is more than your $5 spread and you have many months to roll him. As long as you don’t go counting all the money you collect as “yours” prematurely, this is a great position. XXX as a new spread

Posted September 28, 2007 at 11:15 am | Permalink (Edit)

FXI – hey that’s right, what a rip off those October puts are since there can’t be any motion for a week! Good reaosn to sell more.

Energy holding up the markets right now, big trouble if they slop. Financials trying to mount a comeback but I wasn’t expecting a huge drop today – it’s Mon-Tues I worry about.

Posted September 28, 2007 at 11:31 am | Permalink (Edit)

UNH very tempting at $48, not in a buying mood but I like the Nov $50s.

X with a nice comeback.

GOOG cannot be taken down with conventional weapons!

Posted September 28, 2007 at 11:35 am | Permalink (Edit)

GG/FXI drop – it depends on whether it drops due to a currency collapse (ours, not China’s) or if it’s recession fears. Any tightening of Japan monetary policy will pound commodities. When in doubt – sell half! That goes for covers too. I’m long-term bullish on gold and I love GG but that’s a heck of a 2-day run to protect.

Dollar 77.90!

Posted September 28, 2007 at 12:06 pm | Permalink (Edit)

FWLT – I’d say window dressing. Construction spending was down .2, not down .3 expected but these guys were heading up way before that call came in.

RIO – great growth model should do well of commodities stay afloat.

AAPL – rolled APR/Oct $150s to 2x Jan/Nov $150s to improve my coverage to 75% (and put caller out of the money). Roll backs will be easy if we go higher, unnecessary if we go lower.

ABX crankin’ – let’s go for NEM Nov $47.50s at $1.40, 10 in the $25KP and for bigger virtual portfolios too. XXX

Posted September 28, 2007 at 12:17 pm | Permalink (Edit)

XOM – I did a DD at that price, already have a ton.

FNF covered with $17.50s at .60. Covering pretty much everything into the weekend!

Posted September 28, 2007 at 12:52 pm | Permalink (Edit)

LOL – rolled my FWLTs up to the 1/2 the $130 puts, those are a pretty good entry at $3.75 but this is one dangerous stock to trade.

FNF/Et al – selling calls against long calls, the puts are generally out of the money so I’m more hoping for a comeback there.

Posted September 28, 2007 at 2:00 pm | Permalink (Edit)

Let’s see, we have Crox, Dominos, Yahoo, Bidu, Heelys, Sears – seems like a consumer bet to me.

RTP at 346! That is going to be one mother of a short if copper ever calms down.

MOO is moving.

See, here my QQQQ spread is a good example, I sold the Sept $50s against the Dec $50s and my caller buried me going from .81 to $1.50. My calls went from $2.38 to $3.31 so I’m up $5K and I’ll just roll him to the Oct $51s at $1.30, picking up another .60 in premium and improving my downside coverage from 1/3 to 40% and pushing my caller $1 off the money. And this was pretty much a worst case for the call I sold…

Posted September 28, 2007 at 2:37 pm | Permalink (Edit)

Rolled FSLR to 2x Dec $115/Oct $115 to take advantage of silly run (again).

GDX – 1/2 covered with $45s (I’m in doubt). BA all covered at $105 (I’m not greedy).

Rates are creeping up again, money coming out of treasuries and heading to the markets or money simply not coming into treasuries forcing an end-of-day increase in rates offered? This is one of those things that can fall apart with stunning speed.

Posted September 28, 2007 at 2:51 pm | Permalink (Edit)

Holy Cow – Dollar at 77.70! That’s almost down a full percent in one day!

SLB $105 puts for $3.15 for the truly daring. XXX

 


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