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Thursday Virtual Portfolio Moves

December 13th, 2007 at 9:35 am | Permalink   edit   copy

Things look pretty good so far but I’m not quite ready to buy just yet.

December 13th, 2007 at 9:56 am | Permalink   edit   copy

XMSR and other adjustments – yes but let’s give the markets some time to find a footing because we don’t want to do multiple moves. Right at the bell yesterday I laid out a move for XMSR that is still valid, that’s the adjustment I want to make as $15 seems much less likely.

FSLR – This stock is officially a joke. It’s like RIMM was and still is and PLAY was last year – just a rumor driven trading vehicle that is manipulated whichever way the retail investors aren’t playing it.

Exchange leaps are valid, we did the RUT last week and we can look for others. A long FXI put may be a good idea right now but I sure wouldn’t sell against it just yet.

JOSB – nice call, take the money and run!

December 13th, 2007 at 10:07 am | Permalink   edit   copy

Well this confirms that BA seems be done going down here. CAT is doing well too and MCD so it’s a flight to safety stocks but clearly that doesn’t include AXP today as they are down 3%.

Selling is picking up and I do expect 13,300 to hold, which would be good if we test it. Brokers off 2% and energy slowly but surely slipping.

Airlines would be a good buy if oil goes lower.

CELG getting hammered.

MSFT doing well as they do whenever Rein is watching!

Nat gas inventories today but if they don’t get a 130+ BCF draw they will cause a bigger sell-off across the energy sector.

I’m so glad we took out that XMSR caller, if they get back to $15 we have no reason to change the play.

NYSE down 109, Dow down 57, whichever one is catching up to the other is probably the market direction for the day. We are probably going to take a run at even since that was a critical point yesterday but if we fail that things could be sad in the afternoon.

December 13th, 2007 at 10:22 am | Permalink   edit   copy

COST – absolutely a buy. There was nothing wrong with their numbers other than a slight miss on the top line but they added members. All retail reported less spending per consumer and, since COST doesn’t get a lot of casual traffic due to those same memberships, it takes longer for them to cycle up. Another example of why analysts should be given competency tests before they are allowed to write about a company… Jul $62.50s at $9.50 have just $5 in premium and you can sell the current $67.50s for $1.10 but I’d wait and sell-stop the Jan $65s at $3.25 while I wait for the $67.50s to hopefully recover. XXX

December 13th, 2007 at 10:32 am | Permalink   edit   copy

WM?!? Holy crap I bought those out yeasterday morning! Are you telling me that you held the puts we sold for $1.75 all the ways from .30 on Tuesday to .50, .75, and $1 through noon yesterday and then up to $1.50 at 2pm and still at $2 at the day’s end you still didn’t buy them out? Really, really, really, if you do not have the discipline to take a profit or a small loss on a trade you should simply never make naked trades. There is a mental discipline to trading that you must master becuase if you can’t be happy enough with a 50% profit to take it off the table just because it was briefly an 80% profit, you will trade yourself into a hole every time!

Try looking up Dr Brett’s site and get his book on Trading Psychology, it’s very helpful.

Uh oh, bullish draw in gas at 146Bcf, that should put a floor on the energy sector, at least for now, which should give the market something to build off, especially if the financials can turn around a bit. Out of all oil puts for now. XXX

December 13th, 2007 at 10:43 am | Permalink   edit   copy

XMSR – if you didnt’ buy out the caller yesterday (same comments I just made on WM apply to you!) then yes, it’s safer to stick it out as we have such a wide profit zone from the original trade.

AAPL – I’m not a big fan of close diagonals like that, especially with a stock that could (not likely) jump $10 on you. The only play lie that I would condone is Jan $195s for $10.23 vs the Dec $190s at $5.10 because at least the cost of the $190s covers your gap but it’s still not a very good play due to Apple’s moves of late.

That NYSE/DJI rubberband I’ve been watching just snapped and the NYSE dropped to -125 with the Dow at -60, that’s a bad sign!

December 13th, 2007 at 11:31 am | Permalink   edit   copy

Some stuff holding up, notably BA, COST doing very nicely, MSFT very good, LVS holding up. We held yesterday’s low on the button so now we need to get back over even to not be pathetic – I’m guessing we’re at least going to try.

December 13th, 2007 at 11:53 am | Permalink   edit   copy

HOV – Not really as I rolle dmine down to $7.50s when they were at .90 but I rolled myself down to $5s. The $7.50s are now $1.10, with .40 in premium and better downside protection and, since I’m only going to roll him anyway against my ’10s, I may as well get the extra .30.

AAPL – it is really better to play the V crush on earnings as it is VERY hard for them to beat expectations. I much prefer the Apr or July calls, selling Decembers then Jans as new entries but at the moment I’m out of most Apple as I’m not liking the spreads I see.

IBM – yes I would sell the $105 puts, $110 puts are dangerous.

December 13th, 2007 at 12:36 pm | Permalink   edit   copy

GE order from BA is a circle jerk because GE makes the engines.

FSLR – You have just got to love these analysts!

CELG – I think that was it, I hope that was it… Khan’s dad is right, it’s a disproportionate drop we like to take advantage of.

December 13th, 2007 at 12:51 pm | Permalink   edit   copy

I see lots of little attempts at rallies but the all end up amounting to nothing.

CCJ – I would spend the extra $4 to get the ‘10 $30s as that way you can sell with no margin and a better delta. The Jan $37.50s are $1.32 and you can get another $1 on a roll down if you need to, not bad for a $13.65, 24-month call.

Oh no – Film is turning enigmatic!

TRMP – For $158M I’d buy the damn company if I had the time! AC revenues were down but that’s a random number since it’s based on winnings, not play but, again, analysts do not understand the stocks they are covering.

DNDN – Something good about provenge!!! YESSS!!! I have so many of those!!!

December 13th, 2007 at 12:58 pm | Permalink   edit   copy

DNDN – the $10s are worth picking up as a gamble, still .12 and you may be able to sell the Dec $10s for a lot more later. I put an offer in at .10 just for fun but the leaps are a Ka-Ching and I’m 1/2 out of my Febs at .50 to pay for my massive order of Jan ’10s twice over. XXX

December 13th, 2007 at 1:03 pm | Permalink   edit   copy

Long-term DNDN – we’ve been in this for ages and I still like the leaps but the prices just ran way up so you have to wait for a pullback. It’s hard to quantify the effect of congress investigating the FDA’s investigation of provenge but this is exactly what’s great about owning this stock. I just filled 500 Jans at .10 and I’ll probably sell 250 December 10s before the day’s out, this is just a crazy silly, rumor-driven stock that may one day go back to $15 (before it goes back to $5!).

Oil down $2 so the energy patch may get interesting again.

December 13th, 2007 at 1:37 pm | Permalink   edit   copy

Dollar up nicely at 76.62

RIMM earnings should be fine but outlook is questionable as I know hundreds of people who got a new IPhone and I haven’t seen anyone show me their new Blackberry in quite a while.

DNDN by the way it the ultimate “sell into the initial excitement stock” I had the Feb $7.50s, got 1/2 out at .50, which was even with my rolled basis, bought 500 Jan $10s so I wouldn’t regret a huge run and I’m offering to sell Dec $10s for .10 to make the Jans free and I’m stopping out the rest of my Febs if this thing doesn’t shape up soon ($6.50+) as we took a huge hit on that and it’s great to get even.

DNDN – of course there’s resistance, this site along probably has 100K contracts that we are just getting even on at this level so there’s probably a ton of money in the same boat.

C – same as it ever was. I still like them at $30 and if people are going to sell them at this price, I’ll be buying but AFTER it turns up. We just did this around 11/20-27 so you can read over those posts becasue NOTHING has changed. If $30 even holds, that’s a good sign but I don’t see the $35s as an aggressive sell when you have 12 rolls ahead of you. Even if you only pick up $1 per roll, that would mean C would have to hit $47 to put you under – THAT would be an aggressive target!

“DNDN shares surged after three members of Congress asked for an investigation of a Food and Drug Administration panel’s vote against the pharmaceutical company’s prostate cancer drug.

The congressional trio asked Rep. John Dingell, chairman of the House Energy and Commerce Committee, to probe allegations of conflicts of interest and ethical violations of at least two FDA advisory committee members that opposed approval of Provenge.

There was no word from Dingell’s office on whether the investigation will proceed, but investors sent Dendreon shares up 18 percent following a CNBC report on the matter.”

Not good enough for me, I’m out! XXX

December 13th, 2007 at 1:44 pm | Permalink   edit   copy

DNDN – I really have to remember to short them when these things happen! Oh well, in the end recovered almost all my losses from the trade and now I can go long again cheaply when things calm down.

December 13th, 2007 at 1:47 pm | Permalink   edit   copy

Forget DNDN – say it isn’t so Google at $681 now!

December 13th, 2007 at 1:59 pm | Permalink   edit   copy

Wow, RIMM $100 calls are still $6 with 7 days to go against March $100s at $14.60 XXX get the March first, if they break $100.50 you can wait, otherwise don’t take a chance.

December 13th, 2007 at 2:31 pm | Permalink   edit   copy

Funny – the market got really slow everyone must be watching the baseball speech.

GOOG – I took out my $700 caller but not my $690 callers as I still think I want some protection and I may sell more $690s if we turn back down. Same is true for many positions.

Stopping out callers but I don’t know why I’m doing it other than a bounce so I’m ready to get back in asap if the Dow goes red again but good, steady buying is going on.

FNM with a crazy turnaround makes me think something is up.

Bonds going up, 10-year note auction was terrible, nobody wants to give us money anymore. We just got rejected at even and if that happens again we may as well get a little short for tomorrow.

December 13th, 2007 at 2:53 pm | Permalink   edit   copy

GOOG move down is low volume and not being confirmed by the AAPL, CME, AMZN or even RIMM so I’m liking GOOG for a move once they clear all the suckers out.

December 13th, 2007 at 3:10 pm | Permalink   edit   copy

MA – too dangerous without the whole market moving down. Selling the $230s for $3.30 is easy money IMHO. XXX for you high-margin types.

RIMM on the march if GOOG follows I will be one happy bottom fisher!

DIA – I’m off the puts from this mornings sell into the excitement I’ll start buying calls again at 13,000-12,800 range and I’ll buy puts again at about 13,600-13,700. I’m not excited about playing the middle of the range and I’m pretty darned balanced so I don’t need them for protection anymore.

If we’re shrugging off a Greenspan recession call and more bad news from CFC (what other kind do they have) I’m thinking we may hold this level at least through lunch tomorrow.

GOOG – buying back the $700s is effectively a mo play for me. On that particular set I have Mar $690 calls and I just felt $7 was a bottom for the day and I’ll either sell them again for $10+ or sell the $690s depending on how I fell later but why should I leave my caller in when I think I see a bottomI can play?

$25KP – Take out the DIA Dec putter if you haven’t already. NFLX roll to $22.50s for .90

$10KP – take out AAPL $195 caller if you haven’t already, same in $25KP as with all stops against callers as they move off the bottom. XXX

December 13th, 2007 at 3:12 pm | Permalink   edit   copy

RIMM – that was fun, time to cover with the $100s. XXX

December 13th, 2007 at 3:13 pm | Permalink   edit   copy

Ooops, $103s are $6, much better than the $100s XXX

December 13th, 2007 at 3:27 pm | Permalink   edit   copy

DNDN – there is no reason not to spread the Jan/Dec $7.50s for .10. If the stock runs way up the premium will go up and if it goes down you have a month for something goofy to happen (every 6 weeks is normal for these guys) XXX

December 13th, 2007 at 3:37 pm | Permalink   edit   copy

This run is failing, I think they were rallying the leaders trying to get something going but it’s not catching on in general so be very careful about leaving things uncovered. My attitude is I want to be covered for the weekend anyway so better sooner than later.

December 13th, 2007 at 3:57 pm | Permalink   edit   copy

Looking better but still hard to buy into.

CSCO – good call Film

ELN – don’t you guys ever sell? That was a mo play a few days ago, gone when it didn’t do much (we thought something was going on with BIIB and it turned out what was going on really sucked). They should not have traded down with BIIB though, that’s silly so maybe roll to the Jans and sell soemeone else that .65 premium.

Run failing – you can’t go by the Dow, they can’t get the S&P or the Nas green more than a bit and the RUT and NYSE are still way off. The buying is centered around the horesemen and other stuff everyone wants anyway and it’s very sad to see the energy sector picking back up. Also the level we’re at on the Dow (13,520) is a joke of a bounce off a fall from 13,800 just 50 hours ago so be careful buying into this as we had a rally to this level yesterday and then dropped 100 pts into this morning’s open.

Watch that 13,500 line right at the close but this looks very forced to me (not complaining with my GOOGs and RIMMs though!)

 

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