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Thursday Virtual Portfolio Moves

November 29th, 2007 at 9:41 am | Permalink   edit   copy

SU – I’m going to DD at $2.50 for a $2.95 basis and get 1/2 back out there and then be patient. XXX

November 29th, 2007 at 9:42 am | Permalink   edit   copy

Still plenty of buyers out there, this is nothing I want to short into right now but BIDU is looking like a fantastic short up here if GOOG breaks down.

November 29th, 2007 at 9:46 am | Permalink   edit   copy

SPWR, FSLR going vertical! Also going to be good shorts when oil calms down but for now they are rallying the sector.

SHLD broke below $100, I’ll be buying more when it settles down but this is now a long-term play.

November 29th, 2007 at 9:51 am | Permalink   edit   copy

Weak stocks that worry me: DELL, YRCW, NYX, LEH, AXP (very nasty turn), TGT, BSC, MER, NKE, HD (how can it keep going down?)…

I like shorting MA off AXP’s move MA $190 puts at $6.25, stop at $5.50, going for $9+ XXX

November 29th, 2007 at 10:05 am | Permalink   edit   copy

AAPL – any opportunity to do a double roll of your call and your caller up $5 for $1 out of pocket is worth taking. For example, I have the $175 calls, now $10.22 and I sold the $165 calls, now $17.57 and I’m going to roll my caller to the $175s for $7.35 out of my pocket and I will roll myself to the $185s at $4.78 collecting $5.44. This costs me $2 but moves my max collection all the way up to $175 (of course this also means I don’t expect Apple to hold $180). XXX all virtual portfolios!

New home sales much better than expected but not a real number but it should goose the markets until people look at the internals. Supply is still up and sale prices are down but expect a very nice buider rally off the headline and let’s keep an eye on the financials to see if anyone is buying this.

November 29th, 2007 at 10:18 am | Permalink   edit   copy

Oh sorry, I forgot to mention take the money and run on the GOOG $710s in the $25KP, we still have the $730s but I don’t want to leave them both up.
XXX

November 29th, 2007 at 10:40 am | Permalink   edit   copy

PFE – I wouldn’t bother for .10. We have 3 weeks to expiration and you have 2 years for the stock to go up, If anything I would roll to the $20s for $2.50 and sell the Jan $22.50s for $1.50 if it turns down (below $23) but I think they’re good to go from here, especially if MRK holds $60. Actually, MRK Jan $60 puts at $2.30 make an interesting pair trade with a stop at $1.80. XXX

AAPL $180/$165 – that’s very ugly but the $10 roll is $7.30 for him and $4.25 for you, and that’s fine. I don’t imagine the extra $3 would be worth spending but once you are in the $185s you can offer $1.70 to roll to the $180s and maybe you get lucky.

Natural gas 12Bcf draw, about 1/2 expected. Good for SU with oil staying up.

ABT approval is baked in already on both ends. MDT is not a one-trick pony and I already sold $50s against my ’09s so they are right on track for me.

BIDU – well I’m already short on them in various positions and I’ve taken out my putters but I’ll put them back if we break $380 or cover by taking calls as mo plays but if the US indexes don’t close positive the Asian rally will fade fast. For GOOG – I think anything negative will spook BIDU back to $370 very fast.

Buyers pouring in again, keep an eye on GS at $225 and SHLD at $100 for directional clues.

November 29th, 2007 at 10:52 am | Permalink   edit   copy

Bought BIDU Jan $380 puts at $43.30, going to make it a focus put which means I’ll spend $20 to roll to $420 if I have to. Not selling against it yet. XXX

November 29th, 2007 at 11:03 am | Permalink   edit   copy

AXP – I have been selling Dec $57.50s so it’s just fine with me. I don’t think people get that I like a slow mover like AXP better than a crazy stock like MA because I don’t get blown out of my callers. At the end of the year, my gain will be within 10% of MA’s on the underlying (as they are ultimately governed by the same fundamentals) but I will have made a nice, steady $24 in premium sales on my $10 position as a “bonus.”

AAPL – $185s at $5.90 2 for the $10KP and 5 for the $25KP, stop at $5.50 XXX

November 29th, 2007 at 11:14 am | Permalink   edit   copy

If GOOG breaks $700 it may be time to give up on the puts but I think that will be the top, AAPL at $185, Goog at $700, Dow at 13,300, Nas at 2,675, S&P at 1,470. If we break through those, we could be good to 13,500ish.

Gold stocks are picking up steam as the dollar noses down again so a lot of this move is coming off dollar weakness.

November 29th, 2007 at 11:34 am | Permalink   edit   copy

Opt AAPL – Yes certainly roll as you can afford more premium and they can’t!

MA – I still like the puts.

PFE – Yeah DM, with the crack dealers it’s all about the personality and management style right? As long as they have the muscle to defend their corner I’m figuring the money will come to them.

BIDU – sold $390 puts and rolled myself up to Jan $390s. XXX

Crazy train, not worth fighting…

November 29th, 2007 at 11:56 am | Permalink   edit   copy

RTP $400 puts for $5.50 – fun trade.

November 29th, 2007 at 12:01 pm | Permalink   edit   copy

AAPL – that was a fun day trade for a buck but most of the small virtual portfolio players don’t watnt to day trade so we can sell the $190s for $4.75 against the new $185 which is what I will do in the small virtual portfolios. XXX

November 29th, 2007 at 12:02 pm | Permalink   edit   copy

Oh yeah, this looks like a top to me all around.

November 29th, 2007 at 12:23 pm | Permalink   edit   copy

SBUX – oh yes, I mentioned them last night, certainly a buy.

.50 rate cut now priced in, this is so silly.

Nice Q top call Parchesia!

Xian Apple Dec $180s – I detest tight diagonals for exactly what happened to you, not worth the hassle and you have no roll at expiration. Right now I’d wait as it’s only a 2 hour move out of 3 weeks.

Change of sentiment at the NYMEX, oil may go negative and take the market with it. XOM $85 puts at $1 were $3 on Tuesday. XXX

November 29th, 2007 at 12:32 pm | Permalink   edit   copy

DIA $131 puts – absolutely roll $2 for .72 but I moved to Jan $133 puts myself, that way I can sell Dec puts to some sucker like you if I get worried!

FSLR – I’m hoping they double top at $239 in the next hour at which point I will short the hell out of them as these guys retrace really fast! I’m looking at the $210 puts at $10.30 and I’m buying a few now but hopefully a lot more for less. XXX This is another bet on oil turning lower.

November 29th, 2007 at 12:53 pm | Permalink   edit   copy

AppleFly in $10KP – yes, I have just 2, the purpose was to put a stop loss on the call spread plus we were protected by the puts anyway. There’s a lot of hope being pinned on Bernanke tonight and I’m going DD on the $175 put at $3.60 in the $10 and $25KP to bring the basis down to $4.40, which is, of course, very makable. XXX

IMCL having a great day.

Fun trades – I used to say craps roll, which I should go back to as the idea is to spend no more money than you would be willing to lose at a casino, which is a very different number for everyone.

CROX took a nasty turn. ISRG found a seller at $330. GRMN breaking down, not the best trend for our faves if this spreads.

MA puts – never give up, never surrender DM!

FRE turning down.

It’s funny that with a pipeline burst that there is no unusal volume at the NYMEX. Just goes to show they already have more than can possibly be delivered so there’s no benefit in bidding for more.

DUG – I don’t want to chase it but I’d love some at $45.

GOOG $670/$690 – You’re right where you want to be. Ideally you’ll collect $20 and owe him nothing. As we get closer to expiration you can move but there’s no advantage to doing it now as you only have $6 max gain.

Uh oh, now LULU turning down. WYNN, TIF and COH going down, did something happen to the luxury crowd?

November 29th, 2007 at 1:06 pm | Permalink   edit   copy

Woo Hoo BIDU – I’m rolling my putter down at $5 per $10 as we reach new levels, keepin him at max premium while my Jan $390s gain intrinsic value.

If Uncle Ben doesn’t make nice tonight we gap down big-time tomorrow.

TIVO looking good, they took my advice and started a Nielson service for a nice new stream of revenue: http://www.philstockworld.com/2007/10/03/which-way-wednesday-13/#comment-57822

ROFL – All 4 downed pipelines will be back on line by next week and the big one that’s down was down for maintennance anyway!!!

November 29th, 2007 at 1:35 pm | Permalink   edit   copy

SU back on track oh ye of little faith! 1 hr. to NYMEX close and if they can’t keep it green that whole oil patch will go red, even OIH I think. I’m taking CVX $85 puts at $1.55 XXX

November 29th, 2007 at 1:44 pm | Permalink   edit   copy

Hmm, JWN and SKS getting killed too, something is wrong with the high-end consumer…

CME Jan $620 puts at $15 XXX Will sell Decembers later but if GOOG goes down, they go down (not to mention overall commoditiy sell-off hurts them).

November 29th, 2007 at 1:56 pm | Permalink   edit   copy

BIDU – too late? I hope so as I sold the $380 puts but I heartily reccommend the Jan $390 puts at $51 and hold off a while on selling, hopefully, the $370 puts for $30, otherwise the $380 puts for the same (maybe a 3/4 sell if it’s not going your way as you can roll down $10 to a full sell later if it goes down).

Cool, thanks K1!

November 29th, 2007 at 2:35 pm | Permalink   edit   copy

FSLR teasing $234 with a breakout at $235 but if they fail that the puts are in good shape.

MRK broke $60.

Mispriced options – as long as you keep the proportional weeks to expiration straight you can spot trend breakers that way. Take GOOG $700s for expample at $22.40 while the Jan $700s are $37.15 and the March $700s are $63.50. It costs $5.50 to roll the March down, it costs $5 to roll down the Jans and $5 to roll down the Decembers. That means you are protected just as well selling the Decembers against your Marchs as if you sold the Jans which makes this a very sensible trade to enter as his $22.40 premium wipes out over 1/3 of yours in the first of 3 sales.

What’s VBulletin? I’d be happy to take a look at one if you can link it.

OIH – I don’t understand it either but I’m sure not going to let it close on me with the caller in the money!

I’m going to gut the oil puts out for tomorrow as Mon/Tues was the big dip for those guys this week. Hopefully nothing will blow up! Oil still down at $90.99 with minutes to close on the NYMEX, this is already a failure, even if they do goose it at the last minute. These guys lost $2Bn in 2 days and today a major pipeline goes down and they get .30 back – how would you feel?

AAPL DD puts – I got mine.

November 29th, 2007 at 3:02 pm | Permalink   edit   copy

AAPL – based on today’s action I’m willing to take a chance on Ben disappointing the markets as that’s pretty much been the pattern. Apple looks bullet-proof though but with the Fed funds futures pricing in 100% of a .25 cut and 65% of a .50 cut, I really don’t see how they are going to sustain this into the weekend without some profit taking. Apple is up more than 10% since Wed before Thanksgiving and Goog is just shy of 10% and the broader markets are up 5% without a pullback since Tuesday morning. We NEED a 150-point drop to make this rally real and the month ends tomorrow so expect much more craziness.

MU at $8.20 – that is really low!

Boy it really took all they had to close oil at $91.10, they so don’t want to see a $90.xx on this stuff…

If the S&P can’t close over 1,470 all this “rally” is doing is confirming a top. NYSE weak too.

NILE is a totally great company but you are wrong about MA as consumer credit delinquencies and bank margin loss is going to cause the issuing banks to force MA to share more wealth and that is going to tank this stock within 2 qtrs.

November 29th, 2007 at 3:22 pm | Permalink   edit   copy

DELL Feb/Jan $30 spread for .30 in a 5/4 ratio. $10KP buys 10 Febs for $1.20 right now, $25KP buys 20 Jans right now and we sell 8 and 16 respectively, hopefully for .90 or better on a closing run. XXX

November 29th, 2007 at 3:54 pm | Permalink   edit   copy

Bernanke is speaking to the Charlotte Chamber of Commerce and they are acting like it’s a White House Dinner! Seems like the spinsters are desperate to read something into this. So desperate they are going to put it on Kudlow’s show and that guy would think an asteroid hitting the earth was going to be good for the economy (as long as it doesn’t raise taxes)!

OXPS – yes it’s what I use and pretty much what I’ve always used so don’t ask me about comparisons. All I know for sure is ETRADE SUCKS!!!! TOTALLY!

 

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