Courtesy of Mish.
Amidst Fed yapping about a September rate hike comes disappointing news from the census bureau on wholesale trade and inventories.
Month-over-month and year-over-year sales are down. The inventory-to-sales ratio rose.
Wholesale Sales
- Wholesale Sales -0.4% in July from revised June level
- Wholesale Sales in June revised from +1.9% to +1.7%
- Wholesale Sales -1.0% from July 2015
- Durable goods +0.2% in July from June
- Durable goods +0.7% from July 2015
- Nondurable goods -1.0% from June
- Nondurable goods -2.6% from July 2015
- Petroleum -3.5% from June
- Alcoholic beverages -2.5% from June
Wholesale Inventories
- Inventories unchanged in July from revised June level
- Inventories +0.5% from July 2015
- Durable goods +0.3% in July from June
- Durable goods -1.8% from July 2015
- Nondurable goods -0.3% in July from June
- Nondurable goods +4.3% from July 2015
Inventory-to-Sales
Economists expect an inventory build because inventory subtracted from GDP last Qtr. Why? Inventory-to-sales ratio doesn’t support the idea.
— Mike Shedlock (@MishGEA) September 9, 2016
An inventory build could happen, but the inventory-to-sales numbers do not support the idea.
Mike “Mish” Shedlock
