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500,000 Thursday – Trump Orders GOP to Kill Over 4,000 People Per Month

Every 12 minutes.

That's how often an American citizen dies due to lack of health care.  Trump gave a fiery speech yesterday ordering his Republican goons to repeal Obamacare at any costs – and the costs are turning out to be staggering.  According to the Congressional Budget Office, Trump's plan will throw 32 MILLION Americans off health care and that will cost over 500,000 of them their lives over the next 10 years.  

That will make Trump, the GOP and the people who voted for them, the greatest mass murderers in the history of this country – right up there with the worst in World history (would rank #12, actually).  And why are they doing this, why do 4,000+ Americans have to die every month?  Well, according to the Congressional Budget Office, taking health care away from 1 out of 10 people you see today will save us $473Bn – over 10 years.  That's $47.3Bn a year and that does sound like a lot but there are 165M taxpayers so we each save $286.66 per year.  

$286.66 a year!  How many people would you kill for that kind of money?  Next time you are at a football stadium (50,000 people) pick 8 people to kill because that's how many out of 50,000 (1/6,400) are being killed to give you $286.66.  In fact, the amount of people in the stadium (all of them) is just about how many people your vote will be killing each year.  Isn't that GREAT!?!?  America is truly great again when we can value $286.66 over 50,000 human lives.  

And, if you think your own health care bill won't rise quite a lot more than $286.66 without Obamacare protections, then you are way too far down the rabbit hole to be saved.  The repeal-only act will increase premiums for those who hold plans, according to the CBO.  The office estimates that "average premiums in the nongroup market (for individual policies purchased through the marketplaces or directly from insurers) would increase by roughly 25%" in one year.  That average premium increase would hit 50% by 2020 compared to projections of rates under the current law, and double by 2026, the CBO said.

So the murder of 4,000 people a month will cost you far more than it saves you – so why are we doing it?  Because we don't all pay $286.66.  Some of us pay less and some of us, like Mr. Trump and his family and friends, pay a lot more – possibly millions more in taxes just to avoid killing 50,000 people a year – and they won't stand for it. 

In fact, White House aides are already dismissing the Congressional Budget Office scores and calling it "fake news" and the Billionaire-owned Mainstream Media is doing the same.  There's a frenzy to slaughter 500,000 poor people and the Top 1% will have their blood sport – one way or another.  I just want to recap this for the Red State readers – who might not understand what's going on:  Trump wants to repeal Obamacare without a replacement (I warned you on Wednesday) and this will, FOR A FACT, cause 2 things to happen:

  • You health insurance (if you can even qualify because the protections for pre-exising conditions are gone) will go up 25% in the first year. 
  • 17M people will IMMEDIATELY lose their health care, rising to 32M as time goes on.
  • 4,000 – 6,000 American Citizens will die for lack of health coverage EVERY SINGLE MONTH

All of this will happen if you don't CALL (works better than writing) your Congresspeople and especially your Senators and TELL THEM TO STOP IT.  

If not, then just remember that next time you see 6,000 people in one place, pick the one who has to die so you can have your $286.66 or just imagine them all dead this month, and another 6,000 next month, and the next, and the next, while you save $22 for each 6,000 people that die.  

Can you live with that and do nothing?

I can't!


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  1. Good Morning Everyone!

    It's finally webinar day! 1pm (eastern)

  2. Guessing this post was rejected at SA also.  Can't have the truth out there for all to discover.

  3. Really have to add lines now!

  4. Forget about healthcare Phil – how do you unpack that NY Times interview yesterday? Trump thinks that the entire government works for him! If he had known that Sessions would have done the right thing (recuse himself), he would have given the job to someone who would have run interference in the investigation! And for a guy who said that states who refused to give voter information had something to hide, he seems very reluctant to provide information himself. What does he have to hide. We are driving fast toward a constitutional crisis… And it's been only 6 months.

  5. Good Morning.

  6. Crisis – Can't wait! 

  7.  ~~  KMI – Kinder Morgan announces expected 60% Dividend increase for 2018 and Projects 25% annual dividend growth from 2018 through 2020.   

  8. another new high for amzn…unreal

  9. KMI / Albo – That would make it 4% at the current price. Not bad although I wonder how they get there with oil prices low as they are. Maybe a NatGas play as well…

  10. Looks like they will open up 5% so enough people attracted by that new rate.

  11. "They" seem to be defending $50 on /BZ quite well

  12. Phil, 2 /CL @ $47.63 but, CLU.   Brent over $50, you still hanging in there?  

    Healthcare –  Why is it you could have millions in assets and still get a subsidy for your healthcare?  

  13. Good morning! 

    Had to get that out of my system.  Really couldn't live with myself just letting this happen without trying to stop it.  

    SA/Seer – Didn't even bother with that one, put it up as a blog post there though as I do have 60,000 followers who'll see it that way. 

    Speaking of followers, I just noticed that Trump, who has made 900 Presidential tweets in 6 months, only has 34M followers: while Obama has 92M: - that must really piss Trump off.  

    Big Chart/StJ – I guess we should make it the 20% Rule to give it room to run…

    Times/StJ – That was a very good interview, they do a great job getting him to reveal stuff and yes, that stuff is nasty!  

    Well, my day is going to suck as I have to get the Butterfly done this morning.  Hopefully the LTP won't need much adjusting.  At least there are no July contracts in it. 

    /TF with a nice pullback from 1,445 so up a bit already. 

    Nas, however, is reaching escape velocity:

    DAX went over 12,500 – that's a bullish sign but under will be bearish now. 

  14. Bezos is staying busy :

    ~~ SHLD – Sears Holdings announces Kenmore products are now available on (AMZN); terms of the deal were not disclosed .

  15. Oil/Joseph – I'm still in but it's not a good idea.  Too dangerous to play but I'll keep a couple short and see what happens for fun.  As to the subsidies – I don't know what that's about but the whole thing should simply be free.  For a FACT, it costs far less to give 320M people universal healthcare (proven in 58 countries) than we are spending for partial coverage now.  The logical way to pay for it is through a tax.  Cutting out the insurance companies alone would save 30% of the costs – it's a no-brainer.

    SHLD/Albo – Better for AMZN than for SHLD on that deal although I wonder how they'll deal with delivery and installations?  Can't have drones dropping refrigerators on people…

  16. Dollar took a huge dive at the open, that's supporting the markets (and oil) for now. 

  17. Phil – Do the butterfly this weekend and just try to enjoy the day… :)

  18. Butterfly/1020 – Wish I could but expirations tomorrow.  

  19. Draghi was generally doveish, by the way (as usual) so Dollar shouldn't be weak, which is why I'm hanging on to oil short but, as noted – super risky.

  20. SHLD – Phil, apparently Sears is going to handle the installation and maintenance.

    BTW, Berkowitz Is now valuing SHLD at only $150.  I'm in negotiations to sell him a bridge. 8-)

    • The Bank of Japan kept monetary policy steady overnight, but pushed back the timing for achieving its 2% inflation target to 2020, in a fresh blow to its monetary experiment aimed at sustainably ending deflation.
    • "Risks to the economy and price outlook are skewed to the downside," the BOJ said in a statement.
    • Inflation targets have been back pushed back six times since the central bank launched its massive stimulus program in 2013.
    At least someone is mature here:  Rouhani comments on nuclear deal
    • Iran will not fall into the snare that the Trump administration is attempting to set in order to force the collapse of the 2015 nuclear deal, according to President Hassan Rouhani.
    • The U.S. "ploy today is to behave in such a way as to have Iran say 'I am walking away'" from the agreement, he told his cabinet. Tehran "needs to be aware not to fall into their trap."

  21. /BZ crossing back over $50 stopped me out of oil, that's my in and out indicator.

  22. Phil, Phil, Phil….healthcare and killing people….sheesh.  

  23. Insurance/Phil

    When people don't have insurance and they get sick, they typically go to the emergency room.  The government ends up paying for that visit and that gets filtered down to taxpayers paying for that visit at the highest cost level so not only do you not save that 400+ Billion, but you actually cost taxpayers more.

  24. Pharm

     Any interest in Trevena, Inc. TRVN


  25. Phil, Just want to thank you for recommending Stockopedia as a resource for fundamental information on US stocks.  They do a great job highlighting the Quality, Value and Momentum of an individual stock and I like how they visually outline key elements.  Also, they do a notable job on filtering and comparing one stock to another. I also tie their opinions back to Fastgraphs and SimplySafeDividends — both very good resources!! Glad I didn't sell my AAPL stock last winter !! : )

  26. So, in my pharma BD world right now, things are looking pretty good.  Pharma is hungry for new pipeline fillers.  I don't think the premiums are quite as high for earlier stage products as they were in 2011-2014, but they are still juicy. A few tidbits I have been hearing:

    PRTK (Allergan??), EPZM (CELG), VRTX (Several??), NBIX (Abbott??) are good game.  Take it for what it is worth.

    TRVN….well, they are filing a NDA later this year, but the CMO left in the beginning…why?  If/when they file, it will be another 6 mo to a year before approval.Their drug appears to compete with IV morphine for pain, and has fewer side effects.  So for the 'war' on opioids, that is a good thing.  The bad thing is there is a bunch of competition in the space.  So, for a flier, sure.  Small lot is fine as it should run up to October and then pull back IMHO.

  27. jeffdoc 

     I did not find any airline discounter that I wanted to try so I booked with Delta

     Thanks for the help

  28. CTSH/Assignment – I got assigned on the short July 65 calls. Anyone else? Of course today would have to be the yearly high for the stock.

  29. daveo/CTSH

    That is raw! Who is your broker?  I still hold the July $62.50 calls sold (deep in the money-premium gone).  Will roll today.

  30. FU portfolio… no tease please!!!

    longs--FTR, GNC, GILD, TEVA, JO, XOM, ABX, GE, IMAX, TGT, F, M, LB

    short--amzn, tsla

    not bad ;-)

  31. Phil/CMG,

    one more chance to enter into the Aug 370 Calls. Good to enter or wait as this is the second time down?


  32. I hope Muller goes over every line of Trump's tax returns. About time someone did.

  33. Pffft,,,worst in world history? I dont even see genghis khan on that list, fake news! haha

  34. out of /CL now….  @ $47.35.  had a stop in the system and it picked it up.  

    What causes the market to make those wild swings like that?  ANYONE????     

  35. VRTX    lots of bullish option activity after recent news.  Yesterday thousands of Sept $150 puts STO, plus  2500 $170/$185 call spreads.  Additionally, 500  Nov $145 puts STO to buy the $165/185 call spread. Today, 10,000 Oct $160/$170 call spreads

  36. CTSH/Dave – They still had some premium, not so bad, you can just turn around and sell Aug $67.50s for $3.30 and you are back in good shape (assuming you sold the July $65 calls for a couple of Dollars).  

    Berkowitz/Albo – LOL, send him my way, I have some clunkers to sell him too!  

    Not FTR, up 4% this morning…

    Hospitals/Rustle – True, we pay for that as well.  Preventive care is the best investment you can make and taking insurance away from people (and not getting young people in the habit of getting check-ups) is the worst way to go.  

    CMG now down on video of rats in one of their stores.  Someone is really out to get them.

    You're welcome Newt, that's one of the good ones.  

    NBIX/Pharm – CRAZY valuation on them already.  Someone's really going to pay $4Bn+?  PRTK and EZPM are fun-looking gambles and a bit late for VRTX.

    TRVN interesting but in for a big dilution if they don't make money or get bought in 12 months.

    Still, it's a good story stock and the Dec $2.50 calls are 0.85, which is net $3.35 so 20% premium but the advantage is you can recover from a drop to $2 with probably just a 50% loss, which makes them better to gamble with than the straight stock.

    FTR/Jabob – Up 4% is an FU today?  There's just no pleasing some people.  GNC up 6%, TEVA up 1.6%, XOM up 0.4%, ABX up 1.3%, IMAX up 0.6%, TGT up 0.6%, M up 0.6%, TSLA we just cashed in.  If aren't satisfied with that on down market day – this kind of investing is not for you.  

    CMG/Pat – Someone is clearly out to get them but I like the same play again.  In fact, this time, let's do it in the STP:

    • Sell 5 CMG Dec $370 puts for $29.50 ($14,750)
    • Buy 10 CMG Aug $370 calls for $14.25 ($14,500) 

    That's a net credit of $250 and if CMG is at just $380, we're up $10,250 and $1,000 for each Dollar above that.   Worst case is we roll them along into the LTP – the 2019 $330 puts are $32 and the $380 calls can be sold for $50 so we can knock another $82 (22%) off our net if we have to.

    Khan/Crs – He didn't kill his own people (much).

    Swings/Joseph – "THEY" can see your stops and they'll try to hit them.  The way the algos are now, all it takes is a rumor on twitter in a Russian account and 1,000 sell orders hit before you could finish reading the tweet (if you even knew it existed).  If it weren't a major crime – I would love to set up a network and experiment with that kind of manipulation – must be so much fun!  

  37. Nothing suspicious about Trump campaign colluding with Russia when you find out Manafort owed 17mm to pro Russia interests as records were found from a secretive tax haven.

  38. NBIX has one approved drug and the readout for the other (paired with ABBV) is a big one for endometriosis.  Hence the large valuation right now.  VRTX….second CF drug was a success, so they own the space…..much like GILD did for HIV and does for HCV.  

  39. Yep, just sit back and enjoy the (sad) show!……

  40. Phil / Trump:

    Being a man who has lived in 4 different countries and being married with a PhD. In History ….must disagree  in your comment, not because is false in the analysis ( a decision creates 4000 deaths per month), but is not  sustainable in a historic or academic  approach.

    If we analyze air travel, road construction, driving or sailing , surgery, or any human activity with that approach is obvious that any decision generates a negative side…. if you don' t want  deaths by car accidents…avoid cars, don't want lung cancer…avoid tabac, etc.

    Agreeing with you that Obamacare is "superior" to whatever GOP are able to agree upon, we can say too that Obamacare is not avoiding 5000 deaths because this or that.

    The discussion should be moral ( which is not and never was), is this action or policy reducing human suffering or not?, you have a limited amount of resources to distribute, which criteria commands it?

    I live in a country where Atorvastatin costs $0.80 per 30 /box…not pill, where 60% of the official medical pharmacy costs less that a candy bar, and we still have the same kind of discussions you have I  U.S.

  41. I was saying that I am HAPPY for the FU portfolio today..

  42. Happy FU Portfolio…. 

  43. hilarious pharm!

  44. TWTR just broke out of the trend….so Dec 19/23 BCS with the 18 P STO.  Net 70c.

  45. dclark41/CTSH – I'm on TOS. It weird because I still have the short 62.50s too.

  46. Magical Phil – your oil short play is going according to plan BZ did not hold the $50 line.

  47. Elon Musk got verbal govt approval for hyperloop between NY and DC so TSLA is getting a boost even though this has nothing to do with TSLA.

  48. rustle--of course, they him and Bezos are the modern day Gates and Jobs!


  49. Stocky – Blesa - What is your theory on the hit?

    Loose end, dead men tell no tales and Out.

  50. daveo

    That is weird.  I am surprised no one else had that happened to them with TOS.

  51. Gin – SINO – just curious, do you know anyone at or related to SIG?

  52. NWBO – at the end of a phase 3 trial of DCVAX, a personalized vaccine for glioblastoma.  Now at $0.26/share.  They state their trial hasn't ended because their participants are living too long.  Take a look.  Comments Pharm?

  53. Musk/jabo

    He still has to raise billions first to even start this project that very well might not work and it is probably 10 years off if it ever gets done.  But announce it now before 2nd qtr numbers.  C'mon people, look at the shiny object floating, not at my hands.

  54. Your on @ SA, the whole article and have some interesting comments Phil. I even made one. What ever happened to "The truth will set you free?" Reminds me of the head bashing I did with the Oxford Club when GW was running for president. Just can't reach these "stuck the head up the vent hole and can't see the obvious"  people. Told you, your my hero, as you were the only one who was trying and trying to get the light spread. I think you were my only sanity leading up to the "big meltdown" as you made sense and could see what I was observing. Sorry to say, it's deja vue all over again with dumpf.

  55. CRS/Genghis – recent archeologic finds show that the contemporary European depictions of old Genghis were somewhat slanted. I strongly recommend "Genghis Khan and the Making of the Modern World", Jack Weatherford. Really fascinating.

  56. Butterfly Portfolio Review: Our last review was on 6/9 and we're much-improved since, now at $356,474, up from $317,546 so a gain of $38,928 makes up for our lousy previous month.  Sometimes the expirations are kind and sometimes they are not – the trick is to just stick with the program and keep selling premium.  

    As I noted last time, the LOW VIX is killing the people we sold premium to but keep in mind that we'll need to buy things back quickly if volatility rises or we'll get caught in the reverse wave.  This is our oldest (7/29/2013) and most conservative portfolio – generally it's like watching paint dry but that paint is now up 256% coming into our 4-year anniversary next week and that compounded 40% return is pretty much exactly what we predicted in the aptly titled: "7 Steps To 40% Annual Returns"  There's also the video:  "7 Steps To 40% Annual Returns on Stocks"  And, don't forget: "Using Stock Options To Pay Yourself 2% Monthly Dividends"  

    The Butterfly Portfolio follows that strategy but is a bit more aggressive as we sell puts as well (but we often buy long puts to cover).  Generally, it's just math though, we're BEING THE HOUSE and the house always wins – especially if you give us enough time.  

    Note:  I'm skipping the 3 loose items at the top and will discuss them in context of the full trades as I get to them alphabetically.

    • AAPL – Whole new position now and doing well so far.  The changes in AAPL have dramatically upped the cash position in the portfolio, which is  something we wanted to do to guard against a possible market correction (we don't have hedges in this portfolio so CASH!!! is our hedge).  We'll see how earnings go – hopefully a disappointment so we can buy back the short calls and sell more puts!  
    • COST – We were hoping it would bounce so we could sell better calls – it did not.   The 2019 $190 calls are now $3.25 and the $170 calls are $7.50 so let's spend $4,250 to roll those lower, which will give us more confidence selling short calls – but still not yet as they are only down over fear of AMZN.
    • CTSH – We're waiting for a pullback to sell some puts.   The 14 July $62.50 calls are down a bit, but not much at $7.50 and we can roll them along to 15 (arbitrary) Aug $65 calls at $5.50.

    • DIS – The short puts should go worthless and we'll owe about $2 to the caller.  We sold the puts and calls for $5.95 so a nice $4,000(ish) profit in 60 days.   DIS is cheap so let's see how earnings go.  We don't need to sell anything as our 2019 buy/write is already bullish with a $110 target.  
    • GIS – Way too cheap.  The July $57.50 short puts ($3.45) will need to be rolled to the Jan $55 puts ($3.30) for about even and let's double down on the 2019 $57.50 calls at $2.50 (10 more for 20).  That way, we will happily sell 10 short calls on any good bounce.  
    • MSFT – Still hoping for a pullback one day.  We did get one in early July but then it snapped back up.

    • PG – On track.  Actually it's not as bad as I thought…
    • TGT – Here we are simply long on TGT and waiting for it to come back.  It's crazy how far behind WMT it is.  
    • TXN – We're in great shape here.  
    • VLO – You would think they'd be tanking on low gas but lower oil is good for them.  Still I'm bearish into the fall but let's just let the short Julys expire and wait for earnings next week before deciding what to sell.  We have no short puts (2019) so, if they tank we'll sell those and, if they go up, we have a bullish spread.  Almost can't lose!  

    • WMT – This was our big winner as we played WMT to pull back and they did.  I think it's still the right play as it stands, so nothing to do now but enjoy the profits. 

    • WYNN – We were getting nervous of our short Jan $130 calls but finally a bit of a pullback for another nice winner.  

    So it's another boring month in the Butterfly Portfolio, which is how it's meant to be.  Our main defense in this portfolio is CASH!!! - $300,000 worth of it in a $356,000 portfolio.  Even with the AAPL trade we're only using $277,960 of $712,000 in ordinary margin (1/3) – in a PM account, we have 80% of our buying power intact.

    We could add more positions but the positions we have just made $39,000 in 30 days so it's not like we NEED more positions.  Also, the low VIX pisses me off (makes for poor short-term sales) so I'd rather wait until the market normalizes a bit.  

    Of course, any of these positions can be picked up from scratch as they are all geared to make money every month and most of them have 18 months left to run.

  57. BTW, have owned NWBO fpr a long time. It was at one time over 12, but crashed and burned. I basically own it for free, but I thought the premise was fascinating. Going to buy more. Have friends who have died very quick deaths from glioblastoma. Hopefully that is not what McCain has. I know, but I've always admired the guy. He was an Admiral's kid whose Dad pulled strings to get him out of the POW camp in Vietnam. He refused to go though in awful pain from injury's suffered because he wouldn't leave his buddy's he was imprisoned with. Just admire the guy, though don't always agree with his political stance.

  58. I'm so glad I got out of the disastrous and horribly run NWBO long before it hit the current price.

  59. SA/Pirate – Thanks I just answered a few.  Funny how upset some people get when their world-view is challenged.  I like that one guy claimed Canada is so bad that they come here for health care and a bunch of Canadians immediately called out how ridiculous that belief is.  Sadly, there's a large percentage of this country in the Right-wing media bubble who actually do think that kind of nonsense is true.  And don't worry, we'll get through this one too. 

    Wow, CNBC showing rats at CMG over and over and over again – every break.  One store out of 2,200.  I was eating in Del Ray a few months ago and my kids were watching a rat on the sidewalk where our table was (technically IN the high-end restaurant).  He didn't bother us, we didn't bother him – we both enjoyed some really good Cuban food…

    Oil coming off the floor at $47 but watch $47.20 now.  

    Dollar might have found support at 94.  

  60. Oil- when you say watch 47.20, is it a line to go long, or stop shorting?

  61. We talked about it being resistance yesterday, the pullback line (weak) from $47.50.  $46.90 was S2 – hit on the nose today so if S1 fails, likely S2 is re-tested (and more likely to fail the 2nd time). 

  62. GIS – making sure I got this right…   now both long and short the JAN 55 puts?

  63. GIS/Tangled – You're right, that makes no sense, wasn't looking at the top.  I guess we'll sell the long GIS Jan $55 puts in the Butterfly Portfolio.

    Webinar time

  64. Thanks Phil. I forget sometimes that those lines are both support and resistance depending on which direction you started looking. So, if 46.90 holds up and we get back over 47.20 it MAY be a bullish sign, but if 46.90 fails we could see more downward pressure. Forgot webinar is today and I have an appointment at 1. Oh well.

  65. OJ parole hearing on TV

  66. OJ looks pretty good for 70 especially considering the fact he's been in prison almost 10 years which usually ages you.

  67. GIS – so the current position will be long 20 2019 57.5 calls and short 10 Jan 55 puts and just those 2 legs for now?

  68. GIS – I believe the position is long 20 2019 57.5C and 10 2019 55P, and short 10 2018 55P.

  69. Memorable line of parole hearing: OJ "I've lived a conflict free life"

  70. Advill – "The discussion should be moral ( which is not and never was), is this action or policy reducing human suffering or not?, you have a limited amount of resources to distribute, which criteria commands it?"

    As we mentioned over the weekend… The survival instinct, self preservation, or self interest takes precedence.  In this case, having nothing to do with compassion or dignity or integrity than it does with greed.

  71. Another classic OJ line – I'm not a guy who lived a criminal life, I'm a pretty straight shooter.

  72. Rustle – "When people don't have insurance and they get sick, they typically go to the emergency room. The government ends up paying for that visit and that gets filtered down to taxpayers paying for that visit at the highest cost level so not only do you not save that 400+ Billion, but you actually cost taxpayers more."

    The whole debate is asinine and disgusting. Nearly 33% of all visits to the emergency room are made by people struggling with chronic homelessness. On average, they visit the emergency room five times per year, some visit weekly. 

    Each visit costs $3,700; that's $18,500 spent per year for the average person and $44,400 spent per year for the highest users of emergency departments.  Simply spending $10K per year on supportive housing and feeding a homeless person, yields a return of $20K.

    How? To start, health care costs are reduced by 59%; Emergency room costs are decreased by 61%; General inpatient hospitalizations are decreased by 77%.

    And I know Muck will like this… To date, we have spent conservatively $2T on influencing and making millions of new friends in the middle east.  With less than 1% of that budget, or $20B, or $5B less than annual Wall Street bonus money, we could house and feed 2 million homeless for one year.  The ROI would be 100% or a double at $40B. Source.

    In my best Al Pacino, we all can hit doubles, all god damn day long, but we can't even manage (pause) to get the fuckin bat off our shoulders to make a sacrifice bunt, and Out.

  73. Phil,

    I'm long /DX at 95.5. Looking to add to bring down my basis. You think 94 will hold?

  74. QCMIKE/OMER  It's just the start I beleive.

    Nayob/SINO:  What is SIG? Signet Jewelers?  I am not.  Nor do I have any relationship like that with any company I buy.  Why?

  75. hanjongin


    OMER what do you think the top is ?

  76. qcmike/OMER  Long term or short term?  short term – $26-$30.  Long term (3 -5 years) – $65 min.

  77. hanjongin 


    I think 30 is possible thanks

  78. If this is true (a big if), this could have a big impact on many things including real estate:

    The hyperloop would be built underground, says Musk, and would allow travel between NYC and D.C. in just 29 minutes. It would stop in the city centers, and commuters would access the stations via elevators.

    If you can be in NYC in 15 minutes from Phila why rent in Manhattan… or Jersey City! I don't think that I'll see that in my lifetime though. 

  79. QCOM not feeling it today! Still a long way to go before I would DD though.

  80. Phil,

      I have -5 JAN 2019 TGT $65 Puts, down about 3K. Would this be a good time to roll lower, or sell some calls? As always, thanks a lot for your help and comprehensive answers. 

  81. Gin – SIG – "Nayob/SINO:  What is SIG? Signet Jewelers?  I am not.  Nor do I have any relationship like that with any company I buy.  Why?"

    Nice WJC like response… LMAO.  You may know that on 02/24 Heights Capital Management filed an 13G where CVI purchased 5% of SINO stock (500K shares at $3.18 or $1.5M). Heights Capital Management, Inc. is an investment manager to CVI. But the flot plickens… 

    Capital Ventures International (CVI) is a Cayman based holding company and a private equity arm of Susquehanna International Group or (SIG), a big quant financial institution that specializes in institutional sales and market making.

    Heights Capital specializes in making so called pipe investments, buying discounted stock from firms in need of capital, not to mention CVI (really SIG) is a renowned dumpster diver.  You having run a quant fund for years, I assumed might have known about CVI's special relation to SIG. No sexual relations and Out.

  82. SWKS reports after the close today.  Could provide insights into AAPL and their activities in China with companies such as Huawei.

  83. Phil,

    Is rossmanmd correct about the GIS butterfly positions after the most recent adjustments (+ 20 2019 $57.50 calls and 10 2019 $55 Puts, -10 2018 $55 Puts?

  84. Nat/SIG  ahhhh. Susquehanna.  They used to have the best analyst that came onto CNBC – she was very smart.  My old fund used Goldman as its prime broker and even then I only dealt with a rep not one of the big boys.

    On SINO I am more interested in pure earnings play.  The float is pretty small – took me awhile to just accumulate the stock the other day – moves will be pronounced because of this but I am fine with that.  Thank you for the color.

    And praise the Lord – that innocent OJ is free!

  85. Phil/GIS – I thought we called the bottom in GIS in an earlier butterfly update, and closed out the long put, so we were short the July puts, and long the 2019 calls.

  86. OJ's out! 

    Oil/Craigs – And look how traumatic it was when they failed!  

    See how well that line worked – became resistance on the way back up (which was a fantastic sell signal too). Funny how we predicted it on the button yesterday.

    Prison/Rustle – I bet OJ was well-respected in prison.  He was an American hero and no one there holds a little murder against you – especially when it's the ex-wife and her boyfriend.  

    I wonder if he'll do another Police Squad?

    Image result for nordberg police squad animated gif

    GIS/Butterfly, Tangled – OK, we had:

    Short Put 2019 18-JAN 55.00 PUT [GIS @ $53.95 $0.10] -5 4/19/2017 (547) $-2,550 $5.10 $0.33 n/a     $5.43 - $-163 -6.4% $-2,713
    Long Put 2018 19-JAN 55.00 PUT [GIS @ $53.95 $0.10] 10 4/15/2016 (183) $3,730 $3.73 $-0.38 n/a     $3.35 $0.05 $-380 -10.2% $3,350
    Short Put 2017 21-JUL 57.50 PUT [GIS @ $53.95 $0.10] -10 4/21/2017 (1) $-2,120 $2.12 $1.41     $3.53 $-0.18 $-1,405 -66.3% $-3,525
    Long Call 2019 18-JAN 57.50 CALL [GIS @ $53.95 $0.10] 10 4/17/2017 (547) $5,200 $5.20 $-2.82     $2.39 $-0.17 $-2,815 -54.1% $2,385

    So now we have 15 short 2019 $55 puts and we're selling the 2018 $55 puts which leaves us with 10 long 2019 $57.50 calls and 15 short 2019 $55 puts. 

    OJ/Rustle – I will say this.  What if he really didn't do it?  What a horrible Hell to go through for 35 years if it turns out he was telling the truth.  

    Trump/Advill (missed it earlier) – The point is that this isn't a country that has to choose between feeding their child or paying for a stranger's cancer care – we CAN do both and so we do have a MORAL obligation to do both.  As I pointed out yesterday, our Founding Fathers did believe in these things and believing in LIFE does not only mean at conception and believing in LIBERTY does not only mean for white people or rich people and believing in the PURSUIT OF HAPPINESS does not mean "if you can afford it."   After righting the constitution, the founding Fathers decided to clarify certain things with a Bill of Rights, and #10 says:

    The powers not delegated to the United States by the Constitution, nor prohibited by it to the states, are reserved to the states respectively, or to the people.

    So the US Government may wish to derail national health care but you can bet California, New York and others will sue to have their own systems and that will cause massive chaos.  CA has 40M, NY has 9M, won't take many states to get to 100M people and once the form a block (all blue states, most likely) Congress will completely lose power over the situation.

    Simply cutting out the insurance companies would reduce costs by 1/3 – the rest can be worked out fairly easily if the will is there.  Don't forget, Obamacare was sabotaged from the outset by the GOP and they've spent 7 years since trying to tear it down.  

    Hyperloop/Rustle – What kind of approval is that?  Who gives him that approval to dig a 400-mile hole through 5 states?  What complete nonsense!  It took NY and NJ 15 years to agree on a 3-mile tunnel and THEN the whole deal fell apart – and that was through water they both had the right of way to.  

    And how great is it for TSLA that Musk will stretch his time even thinner – yipee!  

    OJ/Rustle – Not surprising on Lovelock.

    /DX/Japar – It barely did but it should.  Very painful if it goes lower from here though so I'd at least keep a tight stop on the new ones.  Also, don't forget, if you get back to 94.50 and you take 1/2 back off, you've lowered your basis to 95 and then you're almost whole – don't be greedy for the whole thing when a small improvement will take away most of the pain.  

    Hyperloop/StJ – For that matter, there's probably more money to be made buying up the Kaatskills and putting a 15M loop from there to NYC and then selling back the land for 10x as it develops.  How cool would that be to live in the mountains two hours from the city and zoom into work every morning?  

    The Kaatskills would be great because they already were developed at one point (was a popular resort area back in the 50s, 60s) so all the infrastructure is there and big hotels (run-down/abandoned) are there, etc.  

    I really don't see the incentive for NJ and Delaware and Maryland to allow their state to be dug up for a tunnel that bypasses them.  

    TGT/Kevin – Well those puts are $15 and the $57.50 puts are $9.50 so I'd roll to 1.5x the $57.50s.  Spending a bit but lowering your strike 15%.

    Musk/Tangled – Yeah, thought so.

    GIS/Kevin – See above.  

    GIS/Palotay – Not that I picked up and I do always go back to the prior review.  

  87. QCMike/OMER  One more thing, max pain for option expiry is $22.  I don't make of the last couple of days moves because of that.

  88. tsla--still recovers to the high of the day…dangit!!!

  89. GIS twilight zone –  you said The July $57.50 short puts ($3.45) will need to be rolled to the Jan $55 puts ($3.30) for about even and let's double down on the 2019 $57.50 calls at $2.50 (10 more for 20).

    Which to me says we have 10 Jan 55 short puts (replacing the previous 10 Jul 57.50 short puts) and 20 2019  57.50 long calls.  Not 10 long and 15 short???

  90. MSFT – Not so stodgy since Ballmer left.

    ~~Microsoft prelim Q4 $0.98 vs $0.71 Capital IQ Consensus Estimate; revs $24.7 bln vs $24.29 bln Capital IQ Consensus Estimate

  91. Phil,

    I'm confused re GIS. We started with:

    -5 2019 JAN $55 Put

    + 10 2019 JAN $55 Put

    -10 2017 JUL $57.50 Put

    + 10 2019 JAN $57.50 Call

    Then the adjustment was to roll the JUL $57.50 Puts to JAN $55 Puts and buy 10 more of the 2019 $57.50 Calls, followed by selling the 10 2018 JAN $55 Puts. I would think wwe would be left with 3 positions:

    -10 2018 JAN $55 Puts

    -5 2019 JAN $55 Puts

    + 20 2019 $57.50 Calls

    Is that the final situation, or am I just more confused than when I started?

  92. Oil /CL – Did it hit 47.73?  Back down now…. new contracts.  From $42.05 a 21 day trip so far with Twin Peaks…  A potential 50% retrace of the last dip to $47.13; or .618 = $48.26; or .763 (1 – .236) = $49.81. FYI, .763 was the retrace on the last dip.  Don't know about those last two stops as we are 5 days beyond the last two upswings.  TBD.  Looks like this wave set,  nine up, four down, eight up and a nice looking short at the moment.

  93. /NG > Phil, thoughts on /NGZ7 at $3.26 (90 day heat forecast looks above normal)?

  94. Phil,

      Just my $.02, but all you need to do to fix healthcare is to make Congress choose from the same plans that ordinary people have to choose from instead of the platinum plated choices they currently enjoy with taxpayers picking up most of the cost. 

  95. NWBO…would not touch it.

  96. SWKS had a decent beat and guidance above consensus, plus raised dividend 14%.  Go SWKS!

    Skyworks Solutions (NASDAQ:SWKS) reports Q3 results with EPS and revenue beats. Non-GAAP operating income was $333.!M.

    Quarterly dividend increased 14% to $0.32 per share, payable on August 29 to shareholders on record by August 8. 

    Q4 guidance: revenue up 17% to $980M, above the $977.63M consensus, with $1.75 EPS compared to $1.73 consensus.  

  97. The limits of small government – smaller investments in technology that can make a difference:

    The plan comes with China preparing a multibillion-dollar national investment initiative to support “moonshot” projects, start-ups and academic research in A.I., according to two professors who consulted with the government about the effort.

    The United States, meanwhile, has cut back on science funding. In budget proposals, the Trump administration has suggested slashing resources for a number of agencies that have traditionally backed research in A.I. Other cuts, to areas like high-performance computing, would affect the development of the tools that make A.I. work.

  98. Nat I wish I understood your comments better. For my simple mind, are you saying oil is heading up or down from here at 47? Looks like you're talking about heading up with the retrace comments but you ended with its a nice looking short, so would it be rude of me to ask for you to say what you are trying to tell us about the price action on oil?

  99. Phil / healthcare.

    I read  endless reports, comments and analysis about healthcare in U.S, , I tried to sent a photo  with my yesterday pharmacy receipt  but can´t upload it here so I copy it here:

    1 box (30) of Tamsulosine

    1 box Atorvastine 

    1 box Carvedilol

    1 box Amlodipine

    1 box of Aspirin 100mg

    1 box of Diclofenaco                          Total cost 5.87€.

    Ironically most of this prescriptions are U.S labs discovered with patents expired, many of this are American companies  subsidiaries producing in Spain ( not chinese or Indian)

    For this amount in U.S i can buy  Aspirin (small) and perhaps Diclofenaco., why ?.. I DON¨T KNOW!

    In Spain (which has about 2/3 of PPP  of U.S ) about 50% of the medicines cost less that the average price of a candy, 

  100. Good morning!

    We're trending down a bit this morning, same levels as yesterday apply for shorting (same 1,442 on /TF is my favorite).  

    Oil still bouncing off $46.90 but can't close the deal over $47.20 – who'd have thought?  Oh, me, two days ago:

    July 19th, 2017 at 11:21 am | (Unlocked) | Permalink 

    Brent getting near $50, probably $47.50 on /CL, that's worth a short with tight stops above, playing for at least a weak (0.30) pullback to $47.20, so that's the zone to watch   

    July 19th, 2017 at 3:26 pm | (Unlocked) | Permalink 

    The strong retrace is $46.90, of course. 

    July 20th, 2017 at 12:31 pm | (Unlocked) | Permalink

    We talked about it being resistance yesterday, the pullback line (weak) from $47.50.  $46.90 was S2 – hit on the nose today so if S1 fails, likely S2 is re-tested (and more likely to fail the 2nd time). 

    Remember, the 5% Rule is not TA – it's just math!  

    GIS/Butterfly, Tangled, Kevin – We already have 5 short 2019 $55 puts so it makes more sense to roll the 10 short July puts there and we'll turn it into the put leg of an artificial buy/write eventually.  As it stands now, we're just long on the position with 20 (not 10) long 2019 $57.50 calls and 15 short 2019 $55 puts.  Sorry for the confusion on the changes but that is what I'd like to end up with.  

    /NG/Aquila – I'm playing /NGV7 at the moment and it's back under $3.05, where I'll like it long but I think I'll give it the weekend to hopefully test $3.  

    Congress/Kevin – It's completely outrageous that they don't have to abide by the laws they pass.

    Science/StJ – Well the Trump legacy will put us 4-8 years behind our competitors in new science developments.  That's one of those things that can take decades to catch up on.  Just another way Comrade Trump is sabotaging America while his followers blindly applaud selling out our country.  

    Medicine/Advill – The Pharma companies here rob people blind aided by their pet Congresspeople.  It's completely insane, they are just stealing money from the American people and no one does anything about it.  See Michael Moore's movie "Sicko" – it outlines the issues pretty well and shows you the way the Republicans sold out the American people in exchange for donations – you can hear a lot of the same words being used today, but no one learns.

    Of course, almost no Republicans have seen it since the Right has has vilified Michael Moore and watching one of his documentaries is worse than snuff films to Middle America.  God forbid they should be given something to think about…

    As I said yesterday, 58 countries have Universal Health Care – it's not some made-up liberal fantasy – it's been working since post WWII and the costs are half or less than we pay and the outcomes are generally better yet, again, the Conservative voters aren't even allowed to know about alternatives because it's "Anti-American" to Socialize medicine – so they won't even entertain the notion (even though we have socializes schools and utilities and highways and retirement funds….).  

    That's why this country is on the road to ruin, in order to screw the population, the Republicans have waged war on education for 40 years and it's working.  They have a dumb, compliant voter base that is resistant to logic but it means we also have a dumb worker base that can't adapt with the times.

    Image result for us intelligence over time

    Related image

    Image result for us iq over time

    Image result for low iq republicans

    Image result for low iq republicans

    Otherwise, how else would they get away with this?

    Related image

    Image result for low iq republicans

  101. Phil,

    Why are indexes and dollar both going down? Does that indicate anything?