Archive for 2017

Oprah’s Happy and a Bear Market Hits the Makeup Industry! It’s the Stock Trader Weekly Recap.

Courtesy of Blain.

A quiet grinding rally marked the week and really could be a symbol for almost all of 2017.  Four days of minimal movement, led to a bit of a rally late Friday.  And there was your week!  The S&P 500 finished up 0.6% on the week, and the NASDAQ continues to outperform, pushing up 0.9%.  The theme of the year has been very little volatility.  That continued!

As of Friday, the S&P 500 moved less than 20 points in either direction eight days in a row, the longest streak since the Beatles first visited North America.

Economic news came in “well enough” (the very bad employment data of March saw some rubber band effect in April), the government kicked the can on federal funding until September, and the Federal Reserve did what everyone expected it to do – nothing.  With expectations for something in June.

In a statement, the Fed’s rate-setting Federal Open Market Committee said a slowdown in first-quarter economic growth was “likely to be transitory” and described job gains as “solid.”

“They view the weak first-quarter GDP as ‘transitory’ and not something likely to impact policy. That officially puts two more interest-rate increases on the table,” said Matthew Peterson, chief wealth strategist at LPL Financial, who characterized the Fed’s stance as “pretty much as expected.”

Earnings have been on point:

Roughly 80% of S&P 500 companies that have reported so far are beating earnings estimates and posting earnings per share growth of more than 10% year on year while revenue is up 6% year on year, according to Emmanuel Cau, an equity research analyst at J.P. Morgan Cazenove.

Economic data we are interested in:

  • Monday – the ISM manufacturing index fell to 54.8 in April, while construction spending declined 0.2% in March.
  • Wednesday – ISM reported a nonmanufacturing index of 57.5, indicating growth, which was above the consensus of 56 of

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War And Empire: The American Way Of Life

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Authored by Paul Atwood via The Strategic Culture Foundation,

A few months ago I received a message from a professor at the Khomeini Institute for Education and  Research in Tehran, Iran, informing me that my 2010 book “War and Empire: The American Way of Life” (London, Pluto Press) had been translated into Farsi. He requested that I write an Introduction for Iranian readers. What follows is that Introduction. Two years ago the Xinhua Peoples’ Press in Beijing, China also published a translation in Mandarin.

In the aftermath of Saddam Hussein’s 1991 attempt to annex Kuwait the U.S. deliberately destroyed much of Iraq’s water and sewer infrastructure. The Pentagon even admitted on its website that these acts would lead to mass outbreaks of disease. These were certifiable war crimes under international law. After Saddam’s defeat the U.S. also imposed widespread sanctions on his regime that included preventing necessary medicines from reaching Iraq. Hundreds of thousands of Iraqi citizens perished as a result. In an infamous interview in 1996 Madeleine Albright, then the Secretary of State, was asked to justify the deaths of 500,000 children. She defended these atrocities by saying “I think this is a very hard choice but we think the price is worth it.” Twenty-one years have elapsed since Albright uttered her rationalization of this vicious barbarity and it has been virtually “disappeared” from the collective memory of Americans. But it is far from being the only one.

Today much the same is being visited upon the children of Mosul, Syria and Yemen. Fifty thousand more marines are slated for deployment to Afghanistan and the new Defense Secretary’s bellicose rhetoric threatens Iran.

When I undertook to write this book I could not imagine that it would ever be translated into Farsi or Mandarin Chinese. Over the course of my teaching career I had become increasingly concerned about the vacancy of knowledge about their nation’s past on the part of my students and by extension many millions of my fellow American citizens. This condition of ignorance is the effect of the incomplete and, too often, dishonest orthodoxy in required school texts and by the distortion of the real past by popular culture, Hollywood films and corporate controlled network television, especially the purported “news.” George Orwell was correct. “Who controls the present controls the past.”

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Iran Threatens To Destroy Saudi Arabia After Saudi Prince Warns Of “Moving Battle To Iran”

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

An unexpected war of words erupted between two sworn Middle-Eastern rivals over the weekend, when Saudi Arabia and Iran threatened each other with military action, if not outright destruction.

It started on Tuesday, when in “unusually blunt comments” delivered during a nationally-televised interview Saudi Deputy Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman – the man who is now effectively in charge of Saudi oil policy – ruled out any dialogue with Iran and pledged to protect his conservative kingdom from what he called “Tehran’s efforts to dominate the Muslim world.”

“We know that we are a main goal for the Iranian regime,” he said. “We will not wait until the battle comes to Saudi Arabia but we will work to have the battle in Iran rather than in Saudi Arabia.”

Iran, never one to leave a lingering belligerent comment by its Saudi nemesis unanswered, responded when its defense minister said on Sunday that Iran would hit back at most of Saudi Arabia with the exception of Islam’s holiest places if the kingdom does anything “ignorant” according to Reuters.

“If the Saudis do anything ignorant, we will leave no area untouched except Mecca and Medina,” Defence Minister Hossein Dehghan was quoted by the semi-official Tasnim news agency as saying. Taking a jab at the Saudi war in Yemen, the iranian said that “they think they can do something because they have an air force,” referring to Saudi attacks on Iran-aligned Houthi forces in control of the capital Sanaa.

Dehghan, speaking to Arabic-language Al-Manar TV, was commenting on remarks by Saudi Deputy Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, who said on Tuesday any contest for influence between the Sunni Muslim kingdom and the revolutionary Shi’ite theocracy ought to take place “inside Iran, not in Saudi Arabia”.

Was this just more “run off the mill” jawboning and theatrics, or a prelude to a more serious escalation between the two nations which periodically trade verbal barbs even if neither has been willing to test overt military action against its counerpart? The answer will be revealed in the upcoming OPEC negotiation on production cut extensions, and specifically whether the Saudis will grant Iran – which has been steadily gaining market share at Saudis’ expense during 2017 – another waiver from participation in the

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Is This WalMart ‘Free-For-All’ A Taste Of Things To Come?

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

by Stefan Stanford via,

In the new story over at Survival Dan called “During The Collapse: Where To Go And What Places To Avoid”, he reports that when IT hits the fan, America’s ‘population hubs’ will likely explode with violence, looting and the total breakdown of law and order as resources become next to impossible to get and the masses suddenly realize the government isn’t coming to save them.

Whether that be via total collapse, WW3 coming home to roost upon US soil or a ‘grid event’ that leaves tens to hundreds of millions either without power or access to the money in their bank accounts, the video directly below from a WalMart in Mexico gives us a very small taste of what that world without law and order can quickly devolve into.

Showing what happens when suddenly ‘lawless people’ realize that there aren’t enough security guards in a Wal Mart store to stop them, we witness the kind of all-out ‘free for all’ that we’ll likely see in a collapse event, though the smart people would be carrying out food, toilet paper and other necessities instead of flat screen TV’s. And in an all-out SHTF event, we’d expect that the people will likely be fighting with each other for the few remaining resources as they are now in Venezuela where children are literally starving to death.

Following Alt Market’s Brandon Smith warning that ‘a full spectrum crisis is about to take place’ a Wal Mart in Mexico gives us a small glimpse of what might happen here once it all comes crashing down amid more signs that what we’re witnessing in Venezuela may be coming to America.

As commenters on the live leak video clearly point out, we’ve already witnessed events in America similar to what happened in the video above with packs of roving gangs showing up in malls and convenience stores ‘en masse’, taking whatever they want and parading out as if laws don’t matter to them. Knowing such events are already taking place in 2017 America, how much worse might things get when SHTF? As Susan Duclos reported this morning on ANP, parts of America are already a boiling cauldron read to boil over. How many

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Emmanuel Macron Elected Youngest Ever President Of France With 65% Of The Vote

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Update: As Emmanuel Macron arrived in the courtyard of Paris’s Louvre museum to deliver his victory speech to thousands of supporters, the European Union’s anthem “Ode to Joy” played in the background.

“Tonight, France won,” he said to rapturous crowds, adding that “Europe and the world are watching us.” Macron said, cited by the Telegraph, that France is facing an “immense task” to rebuild European unity, fix the economy and ensure security against extremist threats.

“Our task is huge and it will require the courage of truth” he repeated. Speaking to thousands of supporters from the Louvre Museum’s courtyard, Macron said that Europe and the world are “watching us” and “waiting for us to defend the spirit of the Enlightenment, threatened in so many places.”

“We have the force, the will… we will not give into fear, into lies… to the love of decline and defeat”

Macron said  “everyone said it was impossible. But they didn’t know France!” and promised to work to unify France after a bruising presidential campaign and serve the country “with love.”

He also vowed to the French public: “I will protect you in the fact of threats” and said “I will respect what everyone thinks and believes, because I want the unity of our country. I will serve you with humility, strength and in line with our motto: liberty, equality, fraternity… I will serve you with love.”

His wife Brigitte then came up on stage with him, and she kissed his hand and waved to the crowd.

Watch: French President-elect Macron addresses Le Pen supporters, vows to “protect” the country in acceptance speech

— NBC News (@NBCNews) May 7, 2017

* * *

Live Feed from France 24:

After an extraordinary election campaign full of twists and turns, Emmanuel Macron won a dramatic victory over Marine Le Pen in the French presidential election, taking 65% of the vote, with Le Pen collecting just over a third according to estimates from four separate French pollsters. Macron, 39, will become the youngest president of France’s Fifth Republic.

As BBG notes, the firms sampled real votes as they were being counted and weighted their results to reflect the composition of the French electorate. Their projections were all within 1 percentage point. Indeed,

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April Was Cruel… To The US Treasury

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by Nicholas Colas of Convergex

April Was Cruel… To the US Tre

Our monthly review of tax data from the US Treasury’s Daily Statement shows three important points.  First, overall employment and wage trends in the US are still on a solid footing.  Individual tax/withholding payments from salaried/hourly workers rose 4.5% year over year in April and are up 3.7% on a three month rolling average basis.  Second, April tax season was a bit of a bust for Treasury, with receipts down 5.7% from last year and at the lowest levels in 5 years. We attribute that to the delayed realization of capital gains in 2016, with asset owners deferring sales ahead of anticipated tax changes this year. That also explains a bit of the slow US equity trading volume and low volatility of 2017 – those asset owners still don’t know what the new tax code may bring and may be continuing to defer sales.  Lastly, “Gig economy” tax receipts (not withheld, but paid directly by the worker) show this post-Financial Crisis labor market phenomenon is on the wane, down 5.5% in Q1 2017 after a 4.8% decline in Q4 2016.

April is to the US Treasury what Christmas is to retailers: the busiest and most profitable time of the year.  In 2016, for example, the Treasury’s Internal Revenue Service took in $193 billion in payments from individuals as a result of the usual April deadline for filing personal taxes.  By comparison the IRS took in only $15 billion in the month before and $12 billion the month after from taxpayers sending their remittances to the US government.

Last month, however, was not so good to the US Treasury. “Individual Income and Employment Taxes, Not Withheld” (the Treasury line item for receipts outside the customary withholding process) were down 5.7% year over year to $182 billion. Moreover, this is the lowest April haul since 2012. The April tax receipts of 2013 to 2016 ran between $193 billion (2014) to $219 billion (2015). This year’s receipt totals are far from those.

That should seem strange to you.  After all, virtually all asset prices have risen in the past 5 years.  Stocks, bonds, real estate… Everything is higher.  And when individuals sell those assets, they need to pay the capital gains tax

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Macron beats Le Pen, but can he lead France?


Macron beats Le Pen, but can he lead France?

Courtesy of Joshua ColeUniversity of Michigan

File 20170507 7703 1p5juww


In the second round of the French presidential election, extremism lost. The Conversation

It is less clear what won. [But the French retained their traditional right to claim intellectual superiority over Americans. ~ Borowitz. So let's say they won. smiley

Estimates after the polls closed on May 7 had Emmanuel Macron winning with 63.7 percent of the vote. National Front candidate Marine Le Pen took approximately 36.3 percent. That’s less than the 40 percent some polls gave her as recently as two weeks prior to the vote, but more than twice as much as the 17.8 percent her father, Jean Marie Le Pen, received in his 2002 face-off against former president Jacques Chirac. Turnout was lower than any presidential election since 1969, with 23.5 percent of registered voters staying home. What’s more, 12 percent of those who did show up submitted a blank ballot, more than double the number of blank votes in previous elections.

Macron has won the presidency, but he has yet to demonstrate that he can rally a majority of the French behind a coherent set of policies or attract a majority in parliament.

Getting to work

The last minute revelation that Macron’s campaign organization “En Marche!” – meaning “Let’s get to work!” – had been the target of a “massive and coordinated hacking operation” seems to have had little effect on the outcome. Approximately 14.5 gigabytes of emails and documents from Macron’s campaign appeared online only hours before the beginning of the traditional 44-hour media silence before the polls open. Macron’s campaign immediately announced that false documents had been included in the release. The identity of the hackers remains under investigation, but some are already pointing at Russia.

The hacking attack, coming on the heels of similar attempts to influence the outcome of the U.S. presidential election in November 2016, was not a complete surprise. It indicates the extent to which…
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“Sell The News”

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

After initial kneejerks higher in the euro and equity futures, it appears Macron’s victory is now a “sell the news” event as EURUSD has dropped 60 pips from post-election highs…

S&P Futures are fading…

And gold has bounced back to Friday’s highs…

Doug Casey On The Plague Of Cultural Marxists

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Authored by Nick Giambruno via,

Nick Giambruno: What exactly are Cultural Marxists, and how are they, and political correctness, contributing to the decline of Western Civilization?

Doug Casey: Economic Marxism was intellectually debunked decades ago. With the collapse of the USSR, and radical changes in China, the man in the street became aware that the “intellectuals” were fools. And that is reinforced by the ongoing disasters in Cuba, North Korea, and Venezuela. So, since they recognize that there’s nothing to steal if they implement Marxian economic policies, most “intellectuals” no longer talk about them.

Cultural Marxism, however, is just as destructive. It divides people not into economic classes, but cultural classes. You’re no longer an individual—you’re part of a gender, or a race, or some other group. Undoubtedly one being discriminated against by white males who—not just coincidentally—are largely responsible for Western Civilization.

I despise the wave of “politically correct” thought that’s washed over the world like a tidal wave of raw sewage. I remember when I first heard the term used. I believe it was on Saturday Night Live in the early 80’s. At the time I thought it was a joke…

A word Cultural Marxists use a lot lately is diversity. “We’ve got to have diversity.” No, we don’t have to have diversity. There’s zero logical or moral reason why every room should have a quota of blacks, Hispanics, LGBT’s, women, or whatever. It’s extremely stupid to have people qualify for something based upon accidental characteristics. It encourages them to view themselves not as individuals, but members of a group. So it actually foments class warfare.

I occasionally like to go to a men’s club. It’s odd that men are never invited to ladies’ functions – and I don’t care. Everyone should associate with whomever they like. People who use the State to impose their opinions on others, or approve of it, are essentially criminal personalities. I avoid them at all costs.

In fact, birds of a feather usually flock together. This is perfectly natural. You don’t need diversity; it’s not a necessarily positive value, it’s a neutral preference. If you want it in your club, fine. But freedom of association is far, far more important.

I form my friendships based upon neither diversity nor a lack of diversity, although there’s a natural, genetically based tendency to

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Which Jobs Have The Most Suicides?

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

According to an ONS analysis commissioned by Public Health England, suicides are less common among women than men with the rate also varying considerably by occupation.

Infographic: Which jobs have the most suicides?  | Statista

You will find more statistics at Statista

Between 2011 and 2015, workers employed in skilled construction and building trades were found to have had the most suicides, followed by elementary administation and service occupations.


Zero Hedge

Auto Shares Surge As Fiat, Renault Confirm Merger Talks

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

With President Trump in Japan for a state visit and most of Europe headed to the polls to vote in the quinquennial EU Parliamentary elections, there was enough news to keep market watchers occupied during what was supposed to be a quiet holiday weekend in the US. 

But on top of these political headlines, on Saturday afternoon, the news broke that Italian-American carmaker Fiat Chrysler had approached France's Renault with a merger proposal that would leave the shareholders of each carmaker with half of the combined company, in a tie-up that would create the world's third-largest au...

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Phil's Favorites

Trump and the problem with pardons


Trump and the problem with pardons

Courtesy of Andrew Bell, Indiana University

As a veteran, I was astonished by the recent news that President Trump may be considering pardons for U.S. military members accused or convicted of war crimes. But as a scholar who studies the U.S. military and combat ethics, I understand even more clearly the harmful long-term impact such pardons can have on the military.

My researc...

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Insider Scoop

Jefferies Sees 60-Percent Upside In Aphria Shares, Says Buy The Dip

Courtesy of Benzinga.

After a red-hot start to 2019, Canadian cannabis producer Aphria Inc (NYSE: APHA) has run out of steam, tumbling more than 31 percent in the past three months.

Despite the recent weakness, one Wall Street analyst said Friday that the stock has 30-percent upside potential. 

The Analyst

Jefferies analyst ... more from Insider

Kimble Charting Solutions

DAX (Germany) About To Send A Bearish Message To The S&P 500?

Courtesy of Chris Kimble.

Is the DAX index from Germany about to send a bearish message to stocks in Europe and the States? Sure could!

This chart looks at the DAX over the past 9-years. It’s spent the majority of the past 8-years inside of rising channel (1), creating a series of higher lows and higher highs.

It looks to have created a “Double Top” as it was kissing the underside of the rising channel last year at (2).

After creating the potential double top, the DAX index has continued to create a series of lower highs, while experiencing a bearish divergence with the S...

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Chart School

Brexit Joke - Cant be serious all the time

Courtesy of Read the Ticker.

Alistair Williams comedian nails it, thank god for good humour! Prime Minister May the negotiator. Not!

Alistair Williams Comedian youtube

This is a classic! ha!

Fundamentals are important, and so is market timing, here at we believe a combination of Gann Angles, ...

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Digital Currencies

Cryptocurrencies are finally going mainstream - the battle is on to bring them under global control


Cryptocurrencies are finally going mainstream – the battle is on to bring them under global control

The high seas are getting lower. dianemeise

Courtesy of Iwa Salami, University of East London

The 21st-century revolutionaries who have dominated cryptocurrencies are having to move over. Mainstream financial institutions are adopting these assets and the blockchain technology that enables them, in what ...

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DNA as you've never seen it before, thanks to a new nanotechnology imaging method

Reminder: We are available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.


DNA as you've never seen it before, thanks to a new nanotechnology imaging method

A map of DNA with the double helix colored blue, the landmarks in green, and the start points for copying the molecule in red. David Gilbert/Kyle Klein, CC BY-ND

Courtesy of David M. Gilbert, Florida State University


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More Examples Of "Typical Tesla "wise-guy scamminess"

By Jacob Wolinsky. Originally published at ValueWalk.

Stanphyl Capital’s letter to investors for the month of March 2019.

rawpixel / Pixabay

Friends and Fellow Investors:

For March 2019 the fund was up approximately 5.5% net of all fees and expenses. By way of comparison, the S&P 500 was up approximately 1.9% while the Russell 2000 was down approximately 2.1%. Year-to-date 2019 the fund is up approximately 12.8% while the S&P 500 is up approximately 13.6% and the ...

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Members' Corner

Despacito - How to Make Money the Old-Fashioned Way - SLOWLY!

Are you ready to retire?  

For most people, the purpose of investing is to build up enough wealth to allow you to retire.  In general, that's usually enough money to reliably generate a year's worth of your average income, each year into your retirement so that that, plus you Social Security, should be enough to pay your bills without having to draw down on your principle.

Unfortunately, as the last decade has shown us, we can't count on bonds to pay us more than 3% and the average return from the stock market over the past 20 years has been erratic - to say the least - with 4 negative years (2000, 2001, 2002 and 2008) and 14 positives, though mostly in the 10% range on the positives.  A string of losses like we had from 2000-02 could easily wipe out a decades worth of gains.

Still, the stock market has been better over the last 10 (7%) an...

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Mapping The Market

It's Not Capitalism, it's Crony Capitalism

A good start from :

It's Not Capitalism, it's Crony Capitalism


The threat to America is this: we have abandoned our core philosophy. Our first principle of this nation as a meritocracy, a free-market economy, where competition drives economic decision-making. In its place, we have allowed a malignancy to fester, a virulent pus-filled bastardized form of economics so corrosive in nature, so dangerously pestilent, that it presents an extinction-level threat to America – both the actual nation and the “idea” of America.

This all-encompassing mutant corruption saps men’s souls, crushes opportunities, and destroys economic mobility. Its a Smash & Grab system of ill-gotten re...

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Swing trading portfolio - week of September 11th, 2017

Reminder: OpTrader is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.


This post is for all our live virtual trade ideas and daily comments. Please click on "comments" below to follow our live discussion. All of our current  trades are listed in the spreadsheet below, with entry price (1/2 in and All in), and exit prices (1/3 out, 2/3 out, and All out).

We also indicate our stop, which is most of the time the "5 day moving average". All trades, unless indicated, are front-month ATM options. 

Please feel free to participate in the discussion and ask any questions you might have about this virtual portfolio, by clicking on the "comments" link right below.

To learn more about the swing trading virtual portfolio (strategy, performance, FAQ, etc.), please click here ...

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Free eBook - "My Top Strategies for 2017"



Here's a free ebook for you to check out! 

Phil has a chapter in a newly-released eBook that we think you’ll enjoy.

In My Top Strategies for 2017, Phil's chapter is Secret Santa’s Inflation Hedges for 2017.

This chapter isn’t about risk or leverage. Phil present a few smart, practical ideas you can use as a hedge against inflation as well as hedging strategies designed to assist you in staying ahead of the markets.

Some other great content in this free eBook includes:


·       How 2017 Will Affect Oil, the US Dollar and the European Union


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About Phil:

Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

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About Ilene:

Ilene is editor and affiliate program coordinator for PSW. She manages the site market shadows, archives, more. Contact Ilene to learn about our affiliate and content sharing programs.

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