Archive for 2017

Oprah’s Happy and a Bear Market Hits the Makeup Industry! It’s the Stock Trader Weekly Recap.

Courtesy of Blain.

A quiet grinding rally marked the week and really could be a symbol for almost all of 2017.  Four days of minimal movement, led to a bit of a rally late Friday.  And there was your week!  The S&P 500 finished up 0.6% on the week, and the NASDAQ continues to outperform, pushing up 0.9%.  The theme of the year has been very little volatility.  That continued!

As of Friday, the S&P 500 moved less than 20 points in either direction eight days in a row, the longest streak since the Beatles first visited North America.

Economic news came in “well enough” (the very bad employment data of March saw some rubber band effect in April), the government kicked the can on federal funding until September, and the Federal Reserve did what everyone expected it to do – nothing.  With expectations for something in June.

In a statement, the Fed’s rate-setting Federal Open Market Committee said a slowdown in first-quarter economic growth was “likely to be transitory” and described job gains as “solid.”

“They view the weak first-quarter GDP as ‘transitory’ and not something likely to impact policy. That officially puts two more interest-rate increases on the table,” said Matthew Peterson, chief wealth strategist at LPL Financial, who characterized the Fed’s stance as “pretty much as expected.”

Earnings have been on point:

Roughly 80% of S&P 500 companies that have reported so far are beating earnings estimates and posting earnings per share growth of more than 10% year on year while revenue is up 6% year on year, according to Emmanuel Cau, an equity research analyst at J.P. Morgan Cazenove.

Economic data we are interested in:

  • Monday – the ISM manufacturing index fell to 54.8 in April, while construction spending declined 0.2% in March.
  • Wednesday – ISM reported a nonmanufacturing index of 57.5, indicating growth, which was above the consensus of 56 of


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War And Empire: The American Way Of Life

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Authored by Paul Atwood via The Strategic Culture Foundation,

A few months ago I received a message from a professor at the Khomeini Institute for Education and  Research in Tehran, Iran, informing me that my 2010 book “War and Empire: The American Way of Life” (London, Pluto Press) had been translated into Farsi. He requested that I write an Introduction for Iranian readers. What follows is that Introduction. Two years ago the Xinhua Peoples’ Press in Beijing, China also published a translation in Mandarin.

In the aftermath of Saddam Hussein’s 1991 attempt to annex Kuwait the U.S. deliberately destroyed much of Iraq’s water and sewer infrastructure. The Pentagon even admitted on its website that these acts would lead to mass outbreaks of disease. These were certifiable war crimes under international law. After Saddam’s defeat the U.S. also imposed widespread sanctions on his regime that included preventing necessary medicines from reaching Iraq. Hundreds of thousands of Iraqi citizens perished as a result. In an infamous interview in 1996 Madeleine Albright, then the Secretary of State, was asked to justify the deaths of 500,000 children. She defended these atrocities by saying “I think this is a very hard choice but we think the price is worth it.” Twenty-one years have elapsed since Albright uttered her rationalization of this vicious barbarity and it has been virtually “disappeared” from the collective memory of Americans. But it is far from being the only one.

Today much the same is being visited upon the children of Mosul, Syria and Yemen. Fifty thousand more marines are slated for deployment to Afghanistan and the new Defense Secretary’s bellicose rhetoric threatens Iran.

When I undertook to write this book I could not imagine that it would ever be translated into Farsi or Mandarin Chinese. Over the course of my teaching career I had become increasingly concerned about the vacancy of knowledge about their nation’s past on the part of my students and by extension many millions of my fellow American citizens. This condition of ignorance is the effect of the incomplete and, too often, dishonest orthodoxy in required school texts and by the distortion of the real past by popular culture, Hollywood films and corporate controlled network television, especially the purported “news.” George Orwell was correct. “Who controls the present controls the past.”


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Iran Threatens To Destroy Saudi Arabia After Saudi Prince Warns Of “Moving Battle To Iran”

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

An unexpected war of words erupted between two sworn Middle-Eastern rivals over the weekend, when Saudi Arabia and Iran threatened each other with military action, if not outright destruction.

It started on Tuesday, when in “unusually blunt comments” delivered during a nationally-televised interview Saudi Deputy Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman – the man who is now effectively in charge of Saudi oil policy – ruled out any dialogue with Iran and pledged to protect his conservative kingdom from what he called “Tehran’s efforts to dominate the Muslim world.”

“We know that we are a main goal for the Iranian regime,” he said. “We will not wait until the battle comes to Saudi Arabia but we will work to have the battle in Iran rather than in Saudi Arabia.”

Iran, never one to leave a lingering belligerent comment by its Saudi nemesis unanswered, responded when its defense minister said on Sunday that Iran would hit back at most of Saudi Arabia with the exception of Islam’s holiest places if the kingdom does anything “ignorant” according to Reuters.

“If the Saudis do anything ignorant, we will leave no area untouched except Mecca and Medina,” Defence Minister Hossein Dehghan was quoted by the semi-official Tasnim news agency as saying. Taking a jab at the Saudi war in Yemen, the iranian said that “they think they can do something because they have an air force,” referring to Saudi attacks on Iran-aligned Houthi forces in control of the capital Sanaa.

Dehghan, speaking to Arabic-language Al-Manar TV, was commenting on remarks by Saudi Deputy Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, who said on Tuesday any contest for influence between the Sunni Muslim kingdom and the revolutionary Shi’ite theocracy ought to take place “inside Iran, not in Saudi Arabia”.

Was this just more “run off the mill” jawboning and theatrics, or a prelude to a more serious escalation between the two nations which periodically trade verbal barbs even if neither has been willing to test overt military action against its counerpart? The answer will be revealed in the upcoming OPEC negotiation on production cut extensions, and specifically whether the Saudis will grant Iran – which has been steadily gaining market share at Saudis’ expense during 2017 – another waiver from participation in the


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Is This WalMart ‘Free-For-All’ A Taste Of Things To Come?

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

by Stefan Stanford via AllNewsPipeline.com,

In the new story over at Survival Dan called “During The Collapse: Where To Go And What Places To Avoid”, he reports that when IT hits the fan, America’s ‘population hubs’ will likely explode with violence, looting and the total breakdown of law and order as resources become next to impossible to get and the masses suddenly realize the government isn’t coming to save them.

Whether that be via total collapse, WW3 coming home to roost upon US soil or a ‘grid event’ that leaves tens to hundreds of millions either without power or access to the money in their bank accounts, the video directly below from a WalMart in Mexico gives us a very small taste of what that world without law and order can quickly devolve into.

Showing what happens when suddenly ‘lawless people’ realize that there aren’t enough security guards in a Wal Mart store to stop them, we witness the kind of all-out ‘free for all’ that we’ll likely see in a collapse event, though the smart people would be carrying out food, toilet paper and other necessities instead of flat screen TV’s. And in an all-out SHTF event, we’d expect that the people will likely be fighting with each other for the few remaining resources as they are now in Venezuela where children are literally starving to death.

Following Alt Market’s Brandon Smith warning that ‘a full spectrum crisis is about to take place’ a Wal Mart in Mexico gives us a small glimpse of what might happen here once it all comes crashing down amid more signs that what we’re witnessing in Venezuela may be coming to America.

As commenters on the live leak video clearly point out, we’ve already witnessed events in America similar to what happened in the video above with packs of roving gangs showing up in malls and convenience stores ‘en masse’, taking whatever they want and parading out as if laws don’t matter to them. Knowing such events are already taking place in 2017 America, how much worse might things get when SHTF? As Susan Duclos reported this morning on ANP, parts of America are already a boiling cauldron read to boil over. How many


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Emmanuel Macron Elected Youngest Ever President Of France With 65% Of The Vote

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Update: As Emmanuel Macron arrived in the courtyard of Paris’s Louvre museum to deliver his victory speech to thousands of supporters, the European Union’s anthem “Ode to Joy” played in the background.

“Tonight, France won,” he said to rapturous crowds, adding that “Europe and the world are watching us.” Macron said, cited by the Telegraph, that France is facing an “immense task” to rebuild European unity, fix the economy and ensure security against extremist threats.

“Our task is huge and it will require the courage of truth” he repeated. Speaking to thousands of supporters from the Louvre Museum’s courtyard, Macron said that Europe and the world are “watching us” and “waiting for us to defend the spirit of the Enlightenment, threatened in so many places.”

“We have the force, the will… we will not give into fear, into lies… to the love of decline and defeat”

Macron said  “everyone said it was impossible. But they didn’t know France!” and promised to work to unify France after a bruising presidential campaign and serve the country “with love.”

He also vowed to the French public: “I will protect you in the fact of threats” and said “I will respect what everyone thinks and believes, because I want the unity of our country. I will serve you with humility, strength and in line with our motto: liberty, equality, fraternity… I will serve you with love.”

His wife Brigitte then came up on stage with him, and she kissed his hand and waved to the crowd.

Watch: French President-elect Macron addresses Le Pen supporters, vows to “protect” the country in acceptance speech https://t.co/ieXe16OjJZ

— NBC News (@NBCNews) May 7, 2017

* * *

Live Feed from France 24:

After an extraordinary election campaign full of twists and turns, Emmanuel Macron won a dramatic victory over Marine Le Pen in the French presidential election, taking 65% of the vote, with Le Pen collecting just over a third according to estimates from four separate French pollsters. Macron, 39, will become the youngest president of France’s Fifth Republic.

As BBG notes, the firms sampled real votes as they were being counted and weighted their results to reflect the composition of the French electorate. Their projections were all within 1 percentage point. Indeed,


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April Was Cruel… To The US Treasury

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by Nicholas Colas of Convergex

April Was Cruel… To the US Tre

Our monthly review of tax data from the US Treasury’s Daily Statement shows three important points.  First, overall employment and wage trends in the US are still on a solid footing.  Individual tax/withholding payments from salaried/hourly workers rose 4.5% year over year in April and are up 3.7% on a three month rolling average basis.  Second, April tax season was a bit of a bust for Treasury, with receipts down 5.7% from last year and at the lowest levels in 5 years. We attribute that to the delayed realization of capital gains in 2016, with asset owners deferring sales ahead of anticipated tax changes this year. That also explains a bit of the slow US equity trading volume and low volatility of 2017 – those asset owners still don’t know what the new tax code may bring and may be continuing to defer sales.  Lastly, “Gig economy” tax receipts (not withheld, but paid directly by the worker) show this post-Financial Crisis labor market phenomenon is on the wane, down 5.5% in Q1 2017 after a 4.8% decline in Q4 2016.

April is to the US Treasury what Christmas is to retailers: the busiest and most profitable time of the year.  In 2016, for example, the Treasury’s Internal Revenue Service took in $193 billion in payments from individuals as a result of the usual April deadline for filing personal taxes.  By comparison the IRS took in only $15 billion in the month before and $12 billion the month after from taxpayers sending their remittances to the US government.

Last month, however, was not so good to the US Treasury. “Individual Income and Employment Taxes, Not Withheld” (the Treasury line item for receipts outside the customary withholding process) were down 5.7% year over year to $182 billion. Moreover, this is the lowest April haul since 2012. The April tax receipts of 2013 to 2016 ran between $193 billion (2014) to $219 billion (2015). This year’s receipt totals are far from those.

That should seem strange to you.  After all, virtually all asset prices have risen in the past 5 years.  Stocks, bonds, real estate… Everything is higher.  And when individuals sell those assets, they need to pay the capital gains tax


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Macron beats Le Pen, but can he lead France?

 

Macron beats Le Pen, but can he lead France?

Courtesy of Joshua ColeUniversity of Michigan

File 20170507 7703 1p5juww

AP.

In the second round of the French presidential election, extremism lost. The Conversation

It is less clear what won. [But the French retained their traditional right to claim intellectual superiority over Americans. ~ Borowitz. So let's say they won. smiley

Estimates after the polls closed on May 7 had Emmanuel Macron winning with 63.7 percent of the vote. National Front candidate Marine Le Pen took approximately 36.3 percent. That’s less than the 40 percent some polls gave her as recently as two weeks prior to the vote, but more than twice as much as the 17.8 percent her father, Jean Marie Le Pen, received in his 2002 face-off against former president Jacques Chirac. Turnout was lower than any presidential election since 1969, with 23.5 percent of registered voters staying home. What’s more, 12 percent of those who did show up submitted a blank ballot, more than double the number of blank votes in previous elections.

Macron has won the presidency, but he has yet to demonstrate that he can rally a majority of the French behind a coherent set of policies or attract a majority in parliament.

Getting to work

The last minute revelation that Macron’s campaign organization “En Marche!” – meaning “Let’s get to work!” – had been the target of a “massive and coordinated hacking operation” seems to have had little effect on the outcome. Approximately 14.5 gigabytes of emails and documents from Macron’s campaign appeared online only hours before the beginning of the traditional 44-hour media silence before the polls open. Macron’s campaign immediately announced that false documents had been included in the release. The identity of the hackers remains under investigation, but some are already pointing at Russia.

The hacking attack, coming on the heels of similar attempts to influence the outcome of the U.S. presidential election in November 2016, was not a complete surprise. It indicates the extent to which…
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“Sell The News”

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

After initial kneejerks higher in the euro and equity futures, it appears Macron’s victory is now a “sell the news” event as EURUSD has dropped 60 pips from post-election highs…

S&P Futures are fading…

And gold has bounced back to Friday’s highs…





Doug Casey On The Plague Of Cultural Marxists

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Authored by Nick Giambruno via InternationalMan.com,

Nick Giambruno: What exactly are Cultural Marxists, and how are they, and political correctness, contributing to the decline of Western Civilization?

Doug Casey: Economic Marxism was intellectually debunked decades ago. With the collapse of the USSR, and radical changes in China, the man in the street became aware that the “intellectuals” were fools. And that is reinforced by the ongoing disasters in Cuba, North Korea, and Venezuela. So, since they recognize that there’s nothing to steal if they implement Marxian economic policies, most “intellectuals” no longer talk about them.

Cultural Marxism, however, is just as destructive. It divides people not into economic classes, but cultural classes. You’re no longer an individual—you’re part of a gender, or a race, or some other group. Undoubtedly one being discriminated against by white males who—not just coincidentally—are largely responsible for Western Civilization.

I despise the wave of “politically correct” thought that’s washed over the world like a tidal wave of raw sewage. I remember when I first heard the term used. I believe it was on Saturday Night Live in the early 80’s. At the time I thought it was a joke…

A word Cultural Marxists use a lot lately is diversity. “We’ve got to have diversity.” No, we don’t have to have diversity. There’s zero logical or moral reason why every room should have a quota of blacks, Hispanics, LGBT’s, women, or whatever. It’s extremely stupid to have people qualify for something based upon accidental characteristics. It encourages them to view themselves not as individuals, but members of a group. So it actually foments class warfare.

I occasionally like to go to a men’s club. It’s odd that men are never invited to ladies’ functions – and I don’t care. Everyone should associate with whomever they like. People who use the State to impose their opinions on others, or approve of it, are essentially criminal personalities. I avoid them at all costs.

In fact, birds of a feather usually flock together. This is perfectly natural. You don’t need diversity; it’s not a necessarily positive value, it’s a neutral preference. If you want it in your club, fine. But freedom of association is far, far more important.

I form my friendships based upon neither diversity nor a lack of diversity, although there’s a natural, genetically based tendency to


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Which Jobs Have The Most Suicides?

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

According to an ONS analysis commissioned by Public Health England, suicides are less common among women than men with the rate also varying considerably by occupation.

Infographic: Which jobs have the most suicides?  | Statista

You will find more statistics at Statista

Between 2011 and 2015, workers employed in skilled construction and building trades were found to have had the most suicides, followed by elementary administation and service occupations.





 
 
 

ValueWalk

#1 Performing Global Macro Hedge Fund Sees More Shorts Opportunities Ahead As China Bursts

By Jacob Wolinsky. Originally published at ValueWalk.

Crescat Global Macro Fund update to investors on 1/19/2019

Crescat Global Macro Fund and Crescat Long/Short fund delivered strong returns for both December and full year 2018 in a difficult market. Based on ...



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Zero Hedge

Johns Hopkins, Bristol-Myers Face $1 Billion Suit For Infecting Guatemalan Hookers With Syphilis 

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

A federal judge in Maryland said Johns Hopkins University, pharmaceutical company Bristol-Myers Squibb and the Rockefeller Foundation must face a $1 billion lawsuit over their roles in a top-secret program in the 1940s ran by the US government that injected hundreds of Guatemalans with syphilis, reported Reuters.

Several doctors from Hopkins an...



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Phil's Favorites

Divisive economics

 

Guest author David Brin — scientist, technology consultant, best-selling author and futurist — explores the records of Democrats and Republicans on the US economy in the following post. For David's latest posts, visit the CONTRARY BRIN blog. For his books and short stories, visit his web...



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Kimble Charting Solutions

Stock declines did not break 9-year support, says Joe Friday

Courtesy of Chris Kimble.

We often hear “Stocks take an escalator up and an elevator down!” No doubt stocks did experience a swift decline from the September highs to the Christmas eve lows. Looks like the “elevator” part of the phrase came true as 2018 was coming to an end.

The first part of the “stocks take an escalator up” seems to still be in play as well despite the swift decline of late.

Joe Friday Just The Facts Ma’am- All of these indices hit long-term rising support on Christmas Eve at each (1), where support held and rallies have followed.

If you find long-term perspectives helpf...



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Digital Currencies

Transparency and privacy: Empowering people through blockchain

 

Transparency and privacy: Empowering people through blockchain

Blockchain technologies can empower people by allowing them more control over their user data. Shutterstock

Courtesy of Ajay Kumar Shrestha, University of Saskatchewan

Blockchain has already proven its huge influence on the financial world with its first application in the form of cryptocurrencies such as Bitcoin. It might not be long before its impact is felt everywhere.

Blockchain is a secure chain of digital records that exist on multiple computers simultaneously so no record can be erased or falsified. The...



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Insider Scoop

Cars.com Explores Strategic Alternatives, Analyst Sees Possible Sale Price Around $30 Per Share

Courtesy of Benzinga.

Related 44 Biggest Movers From Yesterday 38 Stocks Moving In Wednesday's Mid-Day Session ...

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Chart School

Weekly Market Recap Jan 13, 2019

Courtesy of Blain.

In last week’s recap we asked:  “Has the Fed solved all the market’s problems in 1 speech?”

Thus far the market says yes!  As Guns n Roses preached – all we need is a little “patience”.  Four up days followed by a nominal down day Friday had the market following it’s normal pattern the past nearly 30 years – jumping whenever the Federal Reserve hints (or essentially says outright) it is here for the markets.   And in case you missed it the prior Friday, Chairman Powell came back out Thursday to reiterate the news – so…so… so… patient!

Fed Chairman Jerome Powell reinforced that message Thursday during a discussion at the Economic Club of Washington where he said that the central bank will be “fle...



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Members' Corner

Why Trump Can't Learn

 

Bill Eddy (lawyer, therapist, author) predicted Trump's chaotic presidency based on his high-conflict personality, which was evident years ago. This post, written in 2017, references a prescient article Bill wrote before Trump even became president, 5 Reasons Trump Can’t Learn. ~ Ilene 

Why Trump Can’t Learn

Donald Trump by Gage Skidmore (...



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Biotech

Opening Pandora's Box: Gene editing and its consequences

Reminder: We are available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

Opening Pandora's Box: Gene editing and its consequences

Bacteriophage viruses infecting bacterial cells , Bacterial viruses. from www.shutterstock.com

Courtesy of John Bergeron, McGill University

Today, the scientific community is aghast at the prospect of gene editing to create “designer” humans. Gene editing may be of greater consequence than climate change, or even the consequences of unleashing the energy of the atom.

...

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Mapping The Market

Trump: "I Won't Be Here" When It Blows Up

By Jean-Luc

Maybe we should simply try him for treason right now:

Trump on Coming Debt Crisis: ‘I Won’t Be Here’ When It Blows Up

The president thinks the balancing of the nation’s books is going to, ultimately, be a future president’s problem.

By Asawin Suebsaeng and Lachlan Markay, Daily Beast

The friction came to a head in early 2017 when senior officials offered Trump charts and graphics laying out the numbers and showing a “hockey stick” spike in the nationa...



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OpTrader

Swing trading portfolio - week of September 11th, 2017

Reminder: OpTrader is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

This post is for all our live virtual trade ideas and daily comments. Please click on "comments" below to follow our live discussion. All of our current  trades are listed in the spreadsheet below, with entry price (1/2 in and All in), and exit prices (1/3 out, 2/3 out, and All out).

We also indicate our stop, which is most of the time the "5 day moving average". All trades, unless indicated, are front-month ATM options. 

Please feel free to participate in the discussion and ask any questions you might have about this virtual portfolio, by clicking on the "comments" link right below.

To learn more about the swing trading virtual portfolio (strategy, performance, FAQ, etc.), please click here ...



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Promotions

Free eBook - "My Top Strategies for 2017"

 

 

Here's a free ebook for you to check out! 

Phil has a chapter in a newly-released eBook that we think you’ll enjoy.

In My Top Strategies for 2017, Phil's chapter is Secret Santa’s Inflation Hedges for 2017.

This chapter isn’t about risk or leverage. Phil present a few smart, practical ideas you can use as a hedge against inflation as well as hedging strategies designed to assist you in staying ahead of the markets.

Some other great content in this free eBook includes:

 

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About Phil:

Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

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Ilene is editor and affiliate program coordinator for PSW. She manages the site market shadows, archives, more. Contact Ilene to learn about our affiliate and content sharing programs.

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