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TGIF – Dollar Blasts Higher on Easy ECB and Renewed Trade War Fears


That's a MASSIVE one-day move for the Dollar and it's putting pressure on the indexes and commodities but it's also a Quad Witching Expiration Day, when options and Futures roll over for the quarter, so we're not anxious to bet the indexes but I did put out a Morning Alert to our Members saying:

  • I'm liking Gasoline (/RBU8) long at $2.07 into the weekend with tight stops below.  I would think we can get at least a penny out of this one ($420/contract).
  • Coffee (/KCU8) holding up well against strong Dollar but often down into Monday.  Still, I'll take 2 and happy to DD now if they go lower.
  • Gold (/YG) still very laggy to /SI and I still like it long down here ($1,303) and it's a $300 loss at $1,300 but that's the stop if you want to play.  If /SI breaks over $17.30, we're golden!

As you know, we had a very successful Nasdaq short, making over $4,000 off Wednesday's Live Trading Webinar trade and yesterday we also cashed in Wednesday's Gasoline (/RB) short for another $4,000 gain so that's over $8,000 gained in two days from Wednesday's Live Trading Webinar (replay here).  We do these things every week folks for our PSW Members as well as the subscribers to the Options Opportunity Portfolio over at Seeking Alpha.  

Keep in mind that we only trade the Futures while we wait for our much more conservative spreads and hedges to pay off.  If we do those right, it's like watching paint dry waiting to get paid but the returns can be very, very exciting. 

For instance, our bullish play on the Carlyle Group in the Options Opportunity Portfolio expires today and it's in the money so we'll collect the full $2,500 for our 10 June $20/22.50 bull call spread we added on Feb 6th for net $1,450 – so that's up a nice 72% in 4 months but we paired it with 5 short Sept $22.50 puts which we sold for $2.30 ($1,150), which dropped our cash outlay to just $300 and those are already up $600 so our net gain on $300 cash is $1,650 for a lovely 550% in 4 months.  See – boring!  

Our Member Portfolios are filled with "boring" trades like these so we like to play the Futures while we're waiting for them to mature.  Having Futures trading in our toolbelt also lets us make on-the-fly adjustments to our portfolios – even when the markets are closed – that's a massive trading advantage we have vs other traders.

In other "boring" news, our one Public Portfolio is the Money Talk Portfolio, which is used to track only the picks we make publically on BNN's Money Talk.  By necessity it's a very low-touch portfolio, as I'm only on about once a quarter (because it takes up the whole show and we barely have time even then!) and I haven't been on since February but, even COMPLETELY UNTOUCHED since we reviewed it for you in our May 18th Report, we gained another $6,010 (12.%)  and are now up 85.5% since our Sept 6, 2017 inception:

Notice that we have $34,490 of cash on the side and we're only using $30,000 of ordinary margin – just 1/3 of our available buying power!  This is a nice, conservative portfolio that is still averaging 10% monthly gains.  As I was saying at the Webinar this week – you don't have to swing for the fences to make great returns.  Like Ty Cobb, we just try to swing for a good average and, over time, the small hits tend to add up.

Other than IMAX, which we adjusted when they dipped (on the show, of course), these are all the original trade ideas from the shows and this is now, by far, the Best-Performing Public Portfolio of 2018, not only on television but even in publishing.  You'll hear many, many people CLAIM to have great performance but none of the ones that have actually published their picks live have come close to matching us and I thank Kim Parlee, Barbra Tong, BNN and TD Ameritrade for allowing us the opportunity to teach our "Be the House – NOT the Gambler" system (also featured in Forbes) to such a wide audience.  

While I know an 85% return since September pales in comparison to the 550% return our Members are getting from February's CG trade – these are simple, accessible trades than even beginning traders can follow.  Of course I urge readers to educate themselves on options trading, whether through our own Membership offerings or others as it's certainly the most valuable tool you can have in any trading belt.

Remember, we are not Options Strategists, who tend to be market-neutral, we are FUNDAMENTAL Investors who use options for hedging and leverage on our positions.  That allows us to reduce our risk and greatly reduce the cash that's required in our portfolios and that makes us far, far more flexible so down days like today are always an OPPORTUNITY for us to deploy some cash.

Have a great weekend, 

- Phil


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  1. Tesla and Chicago plans. Musk to self finance entire project. When are people going to catch on to this guy?

  2. Yield curve getting flatter. 

    From Briefing Trader :

    ~~ChartTrader: Big flattener in play today… US 2-10 spread now under 40 Bps for the first time this cycle.


  3. Good Morning.

  4. FNSR actually opening up 3%. Surprising – the conference call must have been good.

  5. Good morning! 

    A bit of a sell-off and declines are about 3:1 over advancing, so very broad.  

    /RB went even lower as oil falls below $66 and /YM testing 25,000 so that's significant if it breaks.

    Even TSLA stopped going up for a minute…

    TSLA/Den – Just another con to distract people from his real problems.  Maybe Musk can be Trump's next Press Secretary?  "We're going to drill a tunnel under that wall!"  

    Speaking of insanity, Trump just gave an epic talk to the press, who managed to corner him somewhere outside.  He STILL is saying that the parents of Korean War MIA's keep coming up to him and asking to bring their boys home – is it even possible no one has pointed out to him that those parents would have to be in their 100s by now and it's an obvious, blatant lie.  Repeating it over and over again is not going to make it true…

    Image result for repeat a lie often enough

    Image result for repeat a lie often enough

    Image result for catapult the propaganda bush

    Image result for repeat a lie often bush

    An uneducated population is the GOP's best friend…

    FNSR/StJ – As I said yesterday, I think the bad news is baked in at this point so there's no place else to go but up.

    Long Call 2020 17-JAN 15.00 CALL [FNSR @ $17.70 $0.00] 50 1/4/2018 (581) $41,200 $8.24 $-2.29 n/a     $5.95 $-0.05 $-11,450 -27.8% $29,750
    Short Put 2020 17-JAN 17.00 PUT [FNSR @ $17.70 $0.00] -20 1/3/2018 (581) $-6,200 $3.10 $0.80     $3.90 - $-1,600 -25.8% $-7,800

    We're already very bullish in the LTP, having doubled down on the long calls and buying back the short calls so we'll just have to wait and see if we can clear $25 into next year.  Their current value is $2Bn at $17.82 and they made $250M last year but had an $86M tax credit so more like $170M less the $50M they should have paid on that is around a 20 p/e here and, even if they make $1/share, still a 20 p/e at $20 so we may have to rethink our long target.  I'm doing the LTP review soon but maybe too early to roll it.  

  6. tsla could not stay down for long… unreal!

  7. What will make NFLX and TSLA stop running higher? 


  8. FNSR – Phil, I think your analysis is right on.  We know FNSR has won some VSCEL deals for industrial and automotive uses.  The new Sherman Texas plant should be up and running by year's end.  It appears that revenues have troughed. 

    OLED down sharply :

    ~~•The WSJ reports that Apple (AAPL) is planning to revert primarily to cheaper LCD screens for upcoming iPhones in response to customer feedback on the more expensive OLED phones.


    Scott – IQ has had quite a run since we first discussed it back in April !

    April 13th, 2018 at 2:30 pm

    Scottmi  – IQ

    There are several articles on SA.  I called it to your attention since I know you follow TCEHY.  BIDU still owns a majority stake.  The stock isn't cheap and they are still losing a lot of money, but the opportunity looks to be huge.

    FWIW – I bought some more stock today at $18.42 and sold some Sept 20 calls for $2.65, which looked like good premium to me.

  9. Phil/PSW/Personal Capital

    Hi, has anyone used personal capital. This is a website that is used to track all your finances at one place.


  10. ABX WTF???

  11. Yikes, indexes turning sharply lower now.  /SI all the way down to $16.68, crazy day.

    This is all about Trade Wars heating up again – same thing that took us down last time but we're a lot higher now.

    Dangit/Jabob – Can't short those Momo's, no matter how tempting.

    Personal Capital/Pat – I haven't used it.  Not too keen on giving my account info to strangers generally – I won't even put it in Quicken.

  12. This guy is freaking nuts:

    When asked if North Korean leader Kim Jong Un would visit the White House, President Donald Trump said that he likely would, complimented his “strong” leadership, and said he wished Americans would “sit up at attention” when he speaks like the North Koreans do for Kim.

    “Hey, he is the head of a country and I mean he is the strong head,” Trump said of Kim to Fox News’ Steve Doocy on Friday. “Don’t let anyone think anything different. He speaks and his people sit up at attention. I want my people to do the same.”

    Does he also want to jail political opponents and starve the population? The authoritarian instincts in this guy are just insane.

  13. This could be good for QCOM moving forward – they seem to be investing in the VR/AR market:

    The XR1 will support 4K video at up to 60 frames per second, 3D overlays, dual displays and popular graphics APIs OpenGL, OpenCL and Vulkan. With the chipset's Spectra image signal processor, it can also reduce noise for clearer image quality.

    Microsoft will possibly use that for the next HoloLens.

  14. Selling some IQ Jan 25 puts for $2.75 looks like a good spec to me.

  15. Sold a few for $2.85.

     Still short some 20's also.

  16. BOFI federal bank paying 1.95 and 2.1% on 1 and 3 month CDs, respectively.

  17. SStJ – the good news they've become a Cult party of One behind Cheeto Chucky, their Supreme Leader, or what I simply just call "The Brand." If/When The Brand goes down, they all go down. It's a precarious position. It looks powerful now, they've got the House/Senate, Exec, Supreme Court 5-4 and 34 States. SO that's a lot of in-your-face power. However in 144 days we go to the polls and start to figure this out for the next super cycle (8-10 years). There's a lot of huff and puff but I think their going down, and their going down big. I'm already trying to predict how and what they re-group around after the next super cycle puts them back where they were in 2008.

    And around and around it goes.

    But yeah, having the President of the United States not only entertain a horrible dictator but pathetically whine why he cannot better emulate one? That's a new low. There are absolutely anit-American, dictator-supporting fascists in this country. They don't hide it. The only thing the rest of us can hope is they exist in a small enough of a minority that the GOP gets tossed out in 2018-2020 to the tune of 1000's of political seats. 

  18. GLUU – Don't know if any of the long term subscribers are still in this pick of Opt Traders.  It keeps hitting new highs.

  19. Long-Term Portfolio Review (LTP) Part 1:  $643,761 is up an embarrassing $45,252 (9%) since our 5/17 review where I said I'd rather cash out ahead of the summer and come back in the fall.  Luckily, you guys didn't let me take a nice vacation and we still have all these positions, which we hedged more heavily in the STP (see earlier review).  Overall, we're up 28.8% for the year but that's 2% lower than yesterday – so it's a very volatile number and shouldn't be taken too seriously.  

    Since we decided to stay in and since we had a lot of hedges, we picked up a bunch of new trades in the past month (always try to balance longs and shorts while selling premium).  As with the Money Talk Portfolio, these are mostly simple trades that we rarely touch – unless they go against us and then, AS PLANNED, we tend to add more or roll to a better position.  

    I talked about that strategy as well as scaling in during the Webinar so I won't get into it here but PLEASE, make sure you understand these concepts as they are the key to our entire long-term strategy!  

    • FMCC – Already up 20% and I like them long-term.  Sadly, no options.
    • Various short puts – None are particularly going against us and we stand to collect about $70,000 if they all expire worthless so pretty much even a flat market will make us $70,000 (14%) in 18 months, simply for promising to buy stocks we REALLY want to own – if they get cheaper.  Since buying cheap stocks is our JOB – this is a very sensible strategy, right?
    • ETM – Still has that new trade smell.
    • FTR – Right where we expected it to be.
    • NRZ – Well over our goal.
    • SKT – At our goal already.

    ETM just paid us a $180 dividend (not logged yet) on 6/12 (they pay monthly), FTR halted their dividend  but I hope we have 10,000 shares when they reinststate it, NRZ paid us $500 in March (so another one coming), SKT paid us $700 in April (so July 27th), ARR is also monthly at $140,  F paid $450 on 4/19, NLY paid $750 in March and NYCB paid $340 on the 7th (we didn't get that one).  

    It may not seem like much but that's $3,700 per quarter and you have to be very well off not to consider that a nice bonus for hanging onto a stock.  As our old LTP matured, we were pulling in about $10,000 per quarter but this is just our 6th month on the new LTP and we don't like to deploy too much cash into stocks at this early stage.  Still – it's a very worthwhile goal to keep adding nice dividend-payers as time goes on.

    • AAPL – There's a reason we always have AAPL in our portfolios. Right on track to turn net $18,000(ish) into $60,000.   This is why we get so bored – it's like watching paint dry day to day but very exciting returns on a 2-year trade.  As it stands it's about net $22,000 so there's still a $38,000 upside (172%) over the next 18 months and for most stock pickers – that would be their best trade ever but you guys just yawn and look for the next hot play…   I know I've been complaining about this lately but that's because I'm hanging out with hedge fund managers who make a fortune with trades that aren't 1/10th this good and they just make the trade and then go play golf – no write-ups, no explanations – NOTHING!  

    You guys are lucky I don't play golf…

    • ABX – Still good for a new trade, down today with gold.
    • ALB – On track but looking weak.

    • ALK – On track
    • AMGN – On track.
    • ARR – A little risky not covering but I think they can do better. 
    • BBBY – On track, good timing adding the bull call spread.  That's what I'm talking about, we sold the 2020 $17.50 puts for $2.80 in Jan to remind us to keep an eye on them and then, when the fall to our target, rather than panic we simply followed through and added the bull call spread.  

    • C – Oops, those May calls expired worthless and I don't think we sold more.  Have to wait now as they took a hit but good for a new trade overall.  By the way, notice how, as our LTP plays mature – they kind of turn into Butterfly Plays where we look to sell more premium.  That's because it's the best way to make consistent long-term gains!  In the early stages, the whole LTP strategy is to build a wall of very defensible longs that we turn into a premium-selling machine…
    • CDE – The better-performing miner. 
    • CHK – Turned up nicely.
    • CHL – Good for a new trade on the AT&T of China.  
    • CMG – I was hoping for a pullback but it isn't happening so far. 

  20. GLUU/Albo – you know, I used to play that and did well but it's been years. I should have another look, although obviously I don't want to buy high.

  21. /RB/Phil- do you like it here for a quick trade?

  22. Snow – Those were very profitable trades thanks to Opt's guidance.  I'm no longer in the stock.  I sold too soon.  Still have some $3 & $4 short puts. I agree with you.  I'm not a buyer at this level.

  23. ETM / Phil – As far as I can tell, they pay $0.09 per quarter, not monthly.

  24. Anti-Dictator/BDC – Got this last night from my "Resistance Group" – worth sharing:

    They Thought They Were Free

    The Germans, 1933-45

    An excerpt from

    Milton Mayer

    But Then It Was Too Late

    "What no one seemed to notice," said a colleague of mine, a philologist, "was the ever widening gap, after 1933, between the government and the people. Just think how very wide this gap was to begin with, here in Germany. And it became always wider. You know, it doesn’t make people close to their government to be told that this is a people’s government, a true democracy, or to be enrolled in civilian defense, or even to vote. All this has little, really nothing, to do with knowing one is governing.

    "What happened here was the gradual habituation of the people, little by little, to being governed by surprise; to receiving decisions deliberated in secret; to believing that the situation was so complicated that the government had to act on information which the people could not understand, or so dangerous that, even if the people could not understand it, it could not be released because of national security. And their sense of identification with Hitler, their trust in him, made it easier to widen this gap and reassured those who would otherwise have worried about it.

    "This separation of government from people, this widening of the gap, took place so gradually and so insensibly, each step disguised (perhaps not even intentionally) as a temporary emergency measure or associated with true patriotic allegiance or with real social purposes. And all the crises and reforms (real reforms, too) so occupied the people that they did not see the slow motion underneath, of the whole process of government growing remoter and remoter.

    "You will understand me when I say that my Middle High German was my life. It was all I cared about. I was a scholar, a specialist. Then, suddenly, I was plunged into all the new activity, as the university was drawn into the new situation; meetings, conferences, interviews, ceremonies, and, above all, papers to be filled out, reports, bibliographies, lists, questionnaires. And on top of that were the demands in the community, the things in which one had to, was ‘expected to’ participate that had not been there or had not been important before. It was all rigmarole, of course, but it consumed all one’s energies, coming on top of the work one really wanted to do. You can see how easy it was, then, not to think about fundamental things. One had no time."

    "Those," I said, "are the words of my friend the baker. ‘One had no time to think. There was so much going on.’"

    "Your friend the baker was right," said my colleague. "The dictatorship, and the whole process of its coming into being, was above all diverting. It provided an excuse not to think for people who did not want to think anyway. I do not speak of your ‘little men,’ your baker and so on; I speak of my colleagues and myself, learned men, mind you. Most of us did not want to think about fundamental things and never had. There was no need to. Nazism gave us some dreadful, fundamental things to think about—we were decent people—and kept us so busy with continuous changes and ‘crises’ and so fascinated, yes, fascinated, by the machinations of the ‘national enemies,’ without and within, that we had no time to think about these dreadful things that were growing, little by little, all around us. Unconsciously, I suppose, we were grateful. Who wants to think?

    "To live in this process is absolutely not to be able to notice it—please try to believe me—unless one has a much greater degree of political awareness, acuity, than most of us had ever had occasion to develop. Each step was so small, so inconsequential, so well explained or, on occasion, ‘regretted,’ that, unless one were detached from the whole process from the beginning, unless one understood what the whole thing was in principle, what all these ‘little measures’ that no ‘patriotic German’ could resent must some day lead to, one no more saw it developing from day to day than a farmer in his field sees the corn growing. One day it is over his head.

    "How is this to be avoided, among ordinary men, even highly educated ordinary men? Frankly, I do not know. I do not see, even now. Many, many times since it all happened I have pondered that pair of great maxims, Principiis obsta and Finem respice—‘Resist the beginnings’ and ‘Consider the end.’ But one must foresee the end in order to resist, or even see, the beginnings. One must foresee the end clearly and certainly and how is this to be done, by ordinary men or even by extraordinary men? Things might have. And everyone counts on that might.

    "Your ‘little men,’ your Nazi friends, were not against National Socialism in principle. Men like me, who were, are the greater offenders, not because we knew better (that would be too much to say) but because we sensed better. Pastor Niemöller spoke for the thousands and thousands of men like me when he spoke (too modestly of himself) and said that, when the Nazis attacked the Communists, he was a little uneasy, but, after all, he was not a Communist, and so he did nothing; and then they attacked the Socialists, and he was a little uneasier, but, still, he was not a Socialist, and he did nothing; and then the schools, the press, the Jews, and so on, and he was always uneasier, but still he did nothing. And then they attacked the Church, and he was a Churchman, and he did something—but then it was too late."

    "Yes," I said.

    "You see," my colleague went on, "one doesn’t see exactly where or how to move. Believe me, this is true. Each act, each occasion, is worse than the last, but only a little worse. You wait for the next and the next. You wait for one great shocking occasion, thinking that others, when such a shock comes, will join with you in resisting somehow. You don’t want to act, or even talk, alone; you don’t want to ‘go out of your way to make trouble.’ Why not?—Well, you are not in the habit of doing it. And it is not just fear, fear of standing alone, that restrains you; it is also genuine uncertainty.

    "Uncertainty is a very important factor, and, instead of decreasing as time goes on, it grows. Outside, in the streets, in the general community, ‘everyone’ is happy. One hears no protest, and certainly sees none. You know, in France or Italy there would be slogans against the government painted on walls and fences; in Germany, outside the great cities, perhaps, there is not even this. In the university community, in your own community, you speak privately to your colleagues, some of whom certainly feel as you do; but what do they say? They say, ‘It’s not so bad’ or ‘You’re seeing things’ or ‘You’re an alarmist.’

    "And you are an alarmist. You are saying that this must lead to this, and you can’t prove it. These are the beginnings, yes; but how do you know for sure when you don’t know the end, and how do you know, or even surmise, the end? On the one hand, your enemies, the law, the regime, the Party, intimidate you. On the other, your colleagues pooh-pooh you as pessimistic or even neurotic. You are left with your close friends, who are, naturally, people who have always thought as you have.

    "But your friends are fewer now. Some have drifted off somewhere or submerged themselves in their work. You no longer see as many as you did at meetings or gatherings. Informal groups become smaller; attendance drops off in little organizations, and the organizations themselves wither. Now, in small gatherings of your oldest friends, you feel that you are talking to yourselves, that you are isolated from the reality of things. This weakens your confidence still further and serves as a further deterrent to—to what? It is clearer all the time that, if you are going to do anything, you must make an occasion to do it, and then you are obviously a troublemaker. So you wait, and you wait.

    "But the one great shocking occasion, when tens or hundreds or thousands will join with you, never comes. That’s the difficulty. If the last and worst act of the whole regime had come immediately after the first and smallest, thousands, yes, millions would have been sufficiently shocked—if, let us say, the gassing of the Jews in ’43 had come immediately after the ‘German Firm’ stickers on the windows of non-Jewish shops in ’33. But of course this isn’t the way it happens. In between come all the hundreds of little steps, some of them imperceptible, each of them preparing you not to be shocked by the next. Step C is not so much worse than Step B, and, if you did not make a stand at Step B, why should you at Step C? And so on to Step D.

    "And one day, too late, your principles, if you were ever sensible of them, all rush in upon you. The burden of self-deception has grown too heavy, and some minor incident, in my case my little boy, hardly more than a baby, saying ‘Jewish swine,’ collapses it all at once, and you see that everything, everything, has changed and changed completely under your nose. The world you live in—your nation, your people—is not the world you were born in at all. The forms are all there, all untouched, all reassuring, the houses, the shops, the jobs, the mealtimes, the visits, the concerts, the cinema, the holidays. But the spirit, which you never noticed because you made the lifelong mistake of identifying it with the forms, is changed. Now you live in a world of hate and fear, and the people who hate and fear do not even know it themselves; when everyone is transformed, no one is transformed. Now you live in a system which rules without responsibility even to God. The system itself could not have intended this in the beginning, but in order to sustain itself it was compelled to go all the way.

    "You have gone almost all the way yourself. Life is a continuing process, a flow, not a succession of acts and events at all. It has flowed to a new level, carrying you with it, without any effort on your part. On this new level you live, you have been living more comfortably every day, with new morals, new principles. You have accepted things you would not have accepted five years ago, a year ago, things that your father, even in Germany, could not have imagined.

    "Suddenly it all comes down, all at once. You see what you are, what you have done, or, more accurately, what you haven’t done (for that was all that was required of most of us: that we do nothing). You remember those early meetings of your department in the university when, if one had stood, others would have stood, perhaps, but no one stood. A small matter, a matter of hiring this man or that, and you hired this one rather than that. You remember everything now, and your heart breaks. Too late. You are compromised beyond repair.

    "What then? You must then shoot yourself. A few did. Or ‘adjust’ your principles. Many tried, and some, I suppose, succeeded; not I, however. Or learn to live the rest of your life with your shame. This last is the nearest there is, under the circumstances, to heroism: shame. Many Germans became this poor kind of hero, many more, I think, than the world knows or cares to know."

    I said nothing. I thought of nothing to say.

    "I can tell you," my colleague went on, "of a man in Leipzig, a judge. He was not a Nazi, except nominally, but he certainly wasn’t an anti-Nazi. He was just—a judge. In ’42 or ’43, early ’43, I think it was, a Jew was tried before him in a case involving, but only incidentally, relations with an ‘Aryan’ woman. This was ‘race injury,’ something the Party was especially anxious to punish. In the case at bar, however, the judge had the power to convict the man of a ‘nonracial’ offense and send him to an ordinary prison for a very long term, thus saving him from Party ‘processing’ which would have meant concentration camp or, more probably, deportation and death. But the man was innocent of the ‘nonracial’ charge, in the judge’s opinion, and so, as an honorable judge, he acquitted him. Of course, the Party seized the Jew as soon as he left the courtroom."

    "And the judge?"

    "Yes, the judge. He could not get the case off his conscience—a case, mind you, in which he had acquitted an innocent man. He thought that he should have convicted him and saved him from the Party, but how could he have convicted an innocent man? The thing preyed on him more and more, and he had to talk about it, first to his family, then to his friends, and then to acquaintances. (That’s how I heard about it.) After the ’44 Putsch they arrested him. After that, I don’t know."

    I said nothing.

    "Once the war began," my colleague continued, "resistance, protest, criticism, complaint, all carried with them a multiplied likelihood of the greatest punishment. Mere lack of enthusiasm, or failure to show it in public, was ‘defeatism.’ You assumed that there were lists of those who would be ‘dealt with’ later, after the victory. Goebbels was very clever here, too. He continually promised a ‘victory orgy’ to ‘take care of’ those who thought that their ‘treasonable attitude’ had escaped notice. And he meant it; that was not just propaganda. And that was enough to put an end to all uncertainty.

    "Once the war began, the government could do anything ‘necessary’ to win it; so it was with the ‘final solution of the Jewish problem,’ which the Nazis always talked about but never dared undertake, not even the Nazis, until war and its ‘necessities’ gave them the knowledge that they could get away with it. The people abroad who thought that war against Hitler would help the Jews were wrong. And the people in Germany who, once the war had begun, still thought of complaining, protesting, resisting, were betting on Germany’s losing the war. It was a long bet. Not many made it."

    /RB/Ravi – Once burned and done for the day for me.

    ETM/StJ – Ah, you are right, it's because they paid in March and then June so I was thinking it was monthly but before that was Nov. 

  25. Manafort is being hauled off to jail after witness tampering.

    Trump says Manafort (the Campaign Chairman) had very little to do with his campaign.  Trump is a truly amazing guy – I don't understand how he can say stuff like that with a straight face….

  26. Notice how he steers the conversation all over the place.  "Maybe Flynn lied (he did), maybe he didn't lie, people say he didn't lie (other liars)…" it's incredible!  

  27. Oh wait, now I know where Trump gets it from.

  28. Goebbel's "victory orgy" happened, just a little differently than what he was promoting.

  29. Phil – what is a possible support for gold?  to go long

  30. Gold/Jeff – $1,250 would be great support if we test it again but there's no support if the Dollar keeps going up, the support is an illusion if gold is being re-priced.

    Last time the Dollar was this high, gold was $1,250 – once those things are equal, THEN you have to consider what else has changed since then.

  31. Wow – I haven't looked at GLUU in years. What was the other one everyone did so well on back then - ARNA? Feel like my basis on that one was $1.50 or something… haven't been on here for a while!

  32. Long-Term Portfolio Review (LTP) Part 2:  

    • DIS – Don't want to look a gift horse in the mouth here.  Let's sell 10 (2/3) July $110 calls for $1.90 ($1,900).  It's only 35 days away and we have 735 days to sell so 20x $1,900 is $38,000 while we wait (not that we'll sell every time but illustrates why we should try to!).
    • F – We're in it for the dividends and right on track.
    • FNSR – We survived earnings so now we just wait for them to execute on the rest.  As it stands now, we have the $15 calls and we bought them for $8.24 but we sold $25 calls for $3.95 and made about $2 on those so net $6.25, let's say.  So, if we leave them alone, our break-even is $21.25 (not counting the short puts) but, if we sell 20 2020 $22 calls for $3.25 ($6,500) and then spend $3.30 to roll our $15 calls ($6.20) to the $10 calls ($9.50), we will have spent just $100 but dropped our break-even to $16.25 and we still get about a double at just $22.  Well, it would seem silly not to do that, right?
    • GE – Yikes, back under $14!  We're going to be waiting and seeing for at least 2 more earnings.
    • GIS – Good for a new trade.

    • HBI – This is our Trade of the Year alternate (to LB), depending on who's cheaper at any given time.  Not HBI, at the moment as they've done well.
    • Image result for joker plans animated gifHMNY – Not doing well is HMNY, the Movie Pass people.  As I said in this week's Webinar, I have a feeling for them like I did for SIRI back when they were 0.11 (now $7.50), when everyone said their business model was a bust and their plans were insane.  Still a great trade for people who like to live dangerously and we're going to buy 10,000 shares for the LTP at 0.35 ($3,500) to essentially double down on the long calls.
    • HRB – Huge pullback hurt us this week but, long-term, I still like them so let's take advantage of the dip and roll the 20 Jan $22 calls ($3) to 20 2020 $18 ($6.50)/25 ($3) bull call spreads at $2.50 and we'll wait for a rebound and then start selling short-term calls.  We're putting net 0.50 in our pocket, getting $2 better strike position and 12 more months for the stock to go up – great deal!    
    • IMAX – Back on track.
    • LB – Now our Trade of the Year is acting like it! 

    • Related imageMO – Still good for a new trade.  Just waiting for the stock to double when:
    • MT – Trade War talk is not good for steel stocks but I love MT long-term and this too shall pass.  They are at the low end of our expected range though, so we do need to keep an eye on them and, overall, the trade is about even after 3 months.

    • NLY – On track.
    • OPK – Crazy up and downs on this one but making progress.

    • SPWR – Another Trade War kicking ball but holding up in our zone and still on track.
    • THC – Much as I love them, we can cash this out of $7 out of a possible $8 so let's clear the slot.
    • UCTT – Not getting a move so far but seems super-cheap to me so we'll stay aggressive.  
    • VRX – Blasted over our targets but still plenty left to gain so we'll keep them.

    • WBA – I think this is a sleeping giant, on track AND still good for a new trade so let's double down on the position
    • WPM – 2017's Trade of the Year is back and just as good at net $2,650 on the $15,000+ (1/2 uncovered) spread.   Only at $6,800 so far, which is up 200%+ for us but still has 130% gain left in it! 

    Well that was easy and it should be in this kind of market.  Just a few adjustments and we're good for another month – enjoy! 

  33. Not looking too bouncy on the Dow but only down 1%, /ES and /NQ down 0.5% and /TF down about 0.666% so that's our sign!

    Oil testing $65 and $2.025 in /RB is a very tempting long with 30 mins until the NYMEX close but very tight stop below.  /NG right at $3, as expected.

    /SI down to $16.51 – that's a fun long and /KC held the $117 line so far. 

    As it's quiet out there, I'm going to knock off early since it's beautiful out.

    Have a great weekend folks!

    - Phil

  34. Not sure if these image links will work but will give it a shot…

    Regarding HBI; the following show 5 year / 6 year history of P/E and P/S for HBI.

    The average high and average low lines represent a 5/6 year average of the highest and lowest P/E or P/S for each year. (The P/E graph omits 2017 as that was the year HBI took its big tax charge and it threw off the P/E ratio). Share price and P/E or P/S data lines are based on year end data (or forward looking P/E estimate)

    HBI 5 year P/E history:

    this seems to show that HBI is being priced well below its 5 year average on a P/E basis. Even a gradual re-pricing towards the low end of the 5 year average P/E range (approx 16.4x) would result in good upside (depending on what you estimate 2018/2019 EPS to be). 

    HBI 6 year P/S history:

    HBI also seems cheap on a P/S basis relative to the past 6 years. With a P/S currently sitting below the 6 year average low P/S. 


    Anyway, I would say both the above look good for HBIs prospects going forward. Any input or feedback appreciated!

  35. Wow, who turned on the buy bots?  

    Man, I can't leave you guys alone for a second, can I?

    Not helping /RB yet but /CL is popping so I'd stick with it:

    Plus /NG well over $3 now.

    Don't blame the Dollar;

    I'd say it's window-dressing but it's only the 15th! 

  36. HBI/CRS – That's why they were runner up for stock of the year.  As I was reviewing LB's competition, I noticed the discrepancies in HBI and decided they were also a good pick.  Then, when LB took off before the Stock of they Year official announcement (Thanksgiving), I had to call HBI officially the Stock of the Year, at the time, as LB had jumped too high (and you know how I feel about chasing).

    Now that LB came down, we loaded back up on it and it's our Stock of the Year again but HBI is a very worthy runner-up and will perform all the duties of our Stock of the Year should LB be unable to.  

    Image result for miss america runner up animated gif

  37. Have a Great Fathers Day Phil!   :)

  38. To All the Great Fathers… Happy Fathers Day!  :)

  39. The Death of Supply Chain Management

  40. Trump confounds allies, facts with stance on Russia

  41. Republicans scramble to understand if Trump just sunk their immigration effort

  42. Good morning!

    Nice little sell-off as Trade Wars crank up with retaliations.  It's Monday though, so we won't know hat sticks until tomorrow. 

    It's not just the trade though, Europe is down 1.5% on fears Merkel is going to get kicked out.  Without her, the whole EU could fall apart.  

    Meanwhile, what kind of messed up picture is that in the article right above?  

    Oil found a floor at $63.50 and /RB at $2.050 but it doesn't look good for them as OPEC is talking about raising production by 1.5Mb, which seems pretty insane to me but they are being tricked by the fake demand too! 

    Honey badger don't care…

    $117 holding firm on /KC

    Gold and silver look like buys to me at $1,283 and $16.60

    Especially if the Dollar pulls back a bit (which could also save the markets).