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Monday Market Movement – Slow Week, Lots of Action!

Trade Wars are heating up!  

With Trump's tariffs set to take effect on July 6th, our former allies and trading partners are responding with tariffs of their own and, as we expected, that's not getting a good reaction from the stock market.  This was not a complicated premise, folks – no one wins trade wars – only psychopathic egotists and their sychophantic followers think otherwise.  Unfortunately, those are the people in power in America

The EU announced $300Bn worth of additional tariffs this weekend in retaliation for tariffs on their automakers in a written statment to the Department of Commerce (in other words, VERY serious) which pointed out what everyone but Trump seems to know – that European auto brands represent 25% of US-based auto production (4.5M cars worth $160Bn or about 30 Harley-Davidsons), providing jobs for over 1M Americans.   

Japanese automakers account for another 1/4 of US production and another 1M US workers and, in fact, the "foreign" manufacturers make more cars and employ more Americans than Ford, GM, Chrysler and Tesla combined.  Are there ANY US auto plants in China? No.  In Japan?  No?  In fact, Ford (F) employs less than 100,000 (out of 2M) production workers in other countries.  Imagine how hypocritical our trade posturning looks to people who are actually aware of the global situation? 

Image result for trump temper tantrum animated gifImagine how embarassing it is when your elected leader goes off on factless tirades launching baseless accusations at supposed allies and engaging in policies that are nothing but detrimental to the Global Economy…  We are used to having Presidents who stayed awake in school or at least learned something about the World along the way to the Presidency – being governed by effectively a selfish, clueless 5 year-old is a new experience for all of us.  Too bad it has real-life repercussions.

Unfortunately, this trade tirade is going to have devastating Global repercussions.  BMW estimates Trump Tariffs will cost it 20% of their profits in 2019 and Mercedes and Volkswagon are projecting 10% losses but moving more plants to the US would not make it better as they would be spittlng certain production lines for no logical reason – making production less efficient.  GM has already warned that they will be hurt by the trade war more than they will be helped and Trump has called the truth unAmerican but more and more companies will soon announce scaled-back earnings as the Trade Wars escalate.

Image result for trump temper tantrum animated gifIt took the US over 70 years to build the WTO (World Trade Organization) and establish free trade with hundreds of nations.  Trump's policies are a step backwards into chaos and it's not just economic repercussions that he's subjecting the US to but there will also be a long-lasting political backlash that can have devastating consequences.  Mexico, for example, elected a far-left President by a landslide this weekend so Trump has, in less than two years, driven a staunce Capitalist ally of the US back to being a Socialist nation with tepid relations – at best.

Whether Trump is doing all this to please Putin or not, Putin is certainly pleased as its now US against the World and, if this idiocy knocks the World Economy back into recession – there's going to no question as to who is the villain in that drama.  While Trump asks OPEC to increase oil prodcution, he fails to understand that 1/3 of our imported oil comes from Mexico with not even 1/10th coming from OPEC but Trump sucks up to OPEC and treats our neighbor like dirt – what could possibly go wrong?

Speaking of things going wrong – Consumer Credit Card Debt is already passing $1Tn with another $1.4Tn in Student Loans outstanding but it's the Credit Card Debt that's alarming as the average interest rate is 16.8% and that will go well over 18% by next year as the Fed tightens, costing American Consumers $180Bn/year in interest alone!  That's up 10% since Trump took office, meaning most of the gains in Consumer Spending have been borrowed from our futures selves based on a lot of promises of great days ahead – so why worry about the present, right?

Image result for government debt 2018 us trumpThe country has added $1Tn worth of debt in the first 6 months of 2018 so I am already tired of all the "winning" – especially if we have to pay that bill down the road but, again, the future is so bright we can all ignore the present, right?  By the end of this year, the ratio of federal debt to the United States' gross domestic product will reach 78%, according to the CBO, the highest ratio since 1950.  The debt is projected to grow to 96% of GDP by 2028 before eventually surpassing the historical high of 106% it reached in 1946.

In 1946, we spiraled into debt in a final push to win WWII.  In 2016 we began spiraling into debt in a final push to win the war on the poor but the battle still rages on and Trump and the Republicans are not going to rest until every single Dollar is safely in the hands of the Top 1%.  Good luck to the rest of you!

We're still watching for the bounce lines we failed to hold last week but it's doubtful we'll take them back with a holiday on Wednesday as well as the rapidly worsening macro environment.  I doubt Trump is going to give up golfing to make any last-minute trade deals so we'll simply have to watch and wait to see how things shake out in a relatively busy week with PMI and ISM later today, Durable Goods and Factory Orders tomorrow, ISM Services and Fed Minutes on Thursday and Non-Farm Payrolls on Friday.

There will be lots going on but very few people around to react to it.

Be careful out there!

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  1. Another weekend getting us closer to autocracy with Trump calling his opponents dangerous for the country!

    And calling for another tax cut because the first one worked so well – 2% GDP last quarter and huge deficits. And then doing Putin's work by talking about leaving NATO and the WTO and recognizing Russia's annexation of Crimea! And even asking Macron to leave the EU in the past.  When is the GOP going to wake up to the fact that the guy is a sleeper agent for Putin? Other than that, MAGA!

  2. Good-bye Florida I guess:

    As the ice sheets above Hal’s head fall away and the snacks on the buffet disappear, topography is transformed from a backwater physical science into the single most important factor determining the longevity of the Sunshine State. The man seated next to me leans over. “If what he says is even half true,” he whispers, “Florida is about to be wiped off the map.”

  3. Phil – any thoughts on /NGV8 at this level?

  4. Good Morning All… 

    Phil, I didn't see any news driving the drop in Coffee this morning, you have any conviction /KC at this level?   I am already in a couple contracts feeling some Monday morning blues.  =(     

  5. Good Morning.

  6. Good Morning 

    Is it worth taking a stab at CL now ? 

  7. Good morning! 

    Dow & NYSe below 200 dma and /RTY and /ES will be below the 50 dmas this morning so watch the Nas to possibly confirm that this is the big one that takes us down to it's 200 dma (now 6,600).  As I noted last week – we're perfectly hedged to stay even on the way down but not really betting on it, per se as the upswings have been too crazy (so far).

    Wake up/StJ – Why do you assume that Trump is the only agent of Russia in the GOP?  Yeah, and it's his opponents who are "dangrerous"..  

    Florida/StJ – 50 years at most and probably unlivable before that as storm surges can wipe out the drinking water in less than 20 years.  People forget the damage salt water can do when it washes over land.

    Image result for florida disappearing animated gif

    Image result for florida global warming animated gif

    /NG/Jeff – Not a good time of year to play and certainly not a good-looking chart so I'm just watching and waiting for now.

    /KC/Grass – A lot of shorts on /KC at the moment but I'm not seeing any great production reports yet:

    The Indonesian government trade data from Sumatra which is the leading coffee producing island within Indonesia, has reported that the islands robusta coffee exports for the month of June were 237,665 bags or 80.21% lower than the same month last year, at a total of 58,622 bags. This number and following a similarly modest export performance for the previous months has contributed to the cumulative coffee exports for the first nine months of the present October 2017 to September 2018 coffee year to be 2,178,651 bags or 69.8% lower than the same period in the previous coffee year, at a total of 942,718 bags.

    The Certified washed Arabica coffee stocks held against the New York exchange were seen to increase by 2,746 bags on Friday; to register these stocks at 2,057,036 bags. There were meanwhile a larger in number 3,017 bags decrease in the number of bags pending grading for this exchange; to register these pending grading stocks at 19,167 bags.

    I mostly blame the Dollar this Q for coffee's weakness but that can last and a recession won't help and tariffs won't help so let it find a bottom before trying to add more positions.

    Oil/Pat – Yes, I am very much in favor of shorting /CL below the $75 line but make sure /BZ is below $80 and the Dollar isn't falling back.  Safer to use UCO, which we have in the STP but, if you like Futures (and I do) and you can afford the risk (I can), then I think it's a great time to bet on a post-holiday sell-off.  Beware Thursday's EiA report, though – as it will still reflect gas stations stocking up BEFORE the holiday (through Sat midnight).  

  8. Si/Phil- whats your view on silver? Seem to broke its support.

  9. We're rallying on good ISM data.

    Metals/Dave – Strong Dollar is killing everything and that's making the technical traders (who don't take the Dollar into account) very nervous and, since technical traders are lazy bastards who only look at squiggly lines on a chart, it doesn't matter what the underlying fundamentals are once we break support so best to let the dust settle and see where a new floor forms.

    /YG is a good long over the $1,250 line and Dec low was $1,240 – so worth a poke too but, below that – who knows?

    /SI had a couple of short trips below $16 but they didn't last so I'm happy to scale in at $15.80, doubling at $15.60, $15.50 (to average 4 at $15.60) but stopping out below that line and getting back in above.  

    Copper needs to find a floor before gold and silver move up.

    TSLA made their 5,000 (they claim) so now we'll see if the stock recovers.  I think it was a one-time push and they can't sustain it – even if it is true.  

  10. Phil – if I want to buy some stock and sell calls a year out against it, is there any rule of thumb about how to choose strike price and option price and know if it is a fair deal or not?  For example selling AAPL June 19 $190 calls against shares of the $186 stock?

  11. That was a  strange, pointless rally.

    Low volume days will do that to you though…

    Europe is down half a point so we're likely to be the same.

  12. Tangle Re buy stock sell calls. I think I must give up publishing my armchair trades, as they are surely not understood.

  13. TSLA – Quite a turnaround in the stock.

  14. I like following them, Yodi. Whether it's to lower the initial basis or to lock in some profit after a move, short calls are great. The few times I've capped profit and regretted it are outnumbered by all the other times when those short calls expired worthless and lowered my basis even more. 

  15. seer

    akkermansia muciniphila - Do you have more details on this?  I'd like to know if there is a form of this that you can get without daily supplements   One article I read said cranberries contained high amounts and mice were fed fish oil….   what else is there?  Thanks for your help

  16. Batman/A. Mucinphilia-not just cranberries, but all polyphenols.  Fructooligosaccharides increase it the most, but FOS will also grow other unwanted bacteria so you have to use it cautiously.  Most prebiotics will increase it because they improve the biodiversity and health of the lumen.  A. Mucinphilia lives in the mucous layer rather than the epithelium and uses mucin as a substrate so anything that improves that environment will help (biodiversity, glucosamine, proline etc.).   Also fish oil, melatonin, navy beans, cayenne, and arabinoxylan have been found to increase counts (mice and humans).  You should probably get tested first as many are lacking in that bacteria.    

  17. Batman-sorry, meant to write that many have no A. Mucinphilia in their microflora so trying to increase counts obviously won't work for them.

  18. Understood/Yodi – It's hard when you try to teach and your students don't understand, right?  wink

    TSLA/Albo – ROFL!  Can't fool all the people all the time…

    PMI Manufacturing Index remains strong despite hitting four-month low

    • ISM Manufacturing Index60.2 vs. 58.5 consensus and 58.7 prior.
    • Employment 56.3 vs. 56.0 prior.
    • Prices 76.8 vs. 79.5
    • New Orders 63.5 vs. 63.7
    • Production 62.3 vs. 61.5
    • May Construction Spending: +0.4% M/M  to $1,309.5B vs. +0.6% consensus, 0.9% prior (revised).
    • Construction spending +4.5% Y/Y.
    • The renminbi weakened 3.3% against the dollar in June, suffering its largest ever monthly fall and raising concerns that China is prepared to use currency devaluation as a weapon in an escalating U.S. trade war.
    • Analysts say that so far the move looks more like market forces than an act of currency war, FTreports, but they warn that continued weakness could further inflame tensions.
    • The Mexican peso fell against the U.S. dollar the day after Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador's decisive presidential election win pushes Mexico's government to the left.
    • The peso drops 1.2% to 20.156 per dollar in late morning trading.
    • Mexican 10-year government bond price fell 0.4% to 99.099, lifting its yield by almost 6 basis points to 7.650%
    • Bitcoin (BTC-USD) plunged to as low as about $5.7K late last week, but has returned to $6.6K at current check, up 5% on today's session. Ether (ETH-USD), Ripple (XRP-USD), and Litecoin (LTC-USD) have bounced similar amounts.
    • OTCQX:GBTC +16.5%
    • The WSJ has an interesting pice from Andy Kessler, tracing Bitcoin's meteoric rise to Tether (USDT-USD). Fixed at $1, more Tether needed to be issued as the price of Bitcoin rose. Proceeds from said issuance were plowed in Bitcoin. Rinse. Repeat. Trouble began, though, when Bitcoin's inevitable rise became less so.

    Tesla updates on production and reservations

    • Hang on tight because the Q2 delivery and production numbers are in from Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA) this morning.
    • The company says Q2 production totaled 53,339 vehicles, up 55% Q/Q. Model 3 production came in at 28,578 units, while combined Model S and X production was 24,761 units.
    • During the last seven days of the quarter, production of 5,031 Model 3 and 1,913 Model S/X combines was realized.
    • "GA4, our new General Assembly line for Model 3, was responsible for roughly 20% of Model 3s produced last week, with quality from that line being as good as our regular GA3 line. We expect that GA3 alone can reach a production rate of 5,000 Model 3s per week soon, but GA4 helped to get us there faster and will also help to exceed that rate," updates Tesla.
    • Tesla expects to increase production to 6K Model 3s per week by late next month. Management also reaffirms guidance for positive GAAP net income and cash flow in Q3 and Q4, despite negative pressures from a weaker U.S. dollar and likely higher tariffs for vehicles imported into China as well as components procured from China.
    • Q2 deliveries totaled 40,740 vehicles, of which 18,440 were Model 3, 10,930 were Model S, and 11,370 were Model X. Tesla notes that 11,166 Model 3 vehicles and 3,892 Model S and X vehicles were in transit to customers at the end of Q2, and will be delivered in early Q3. The high number of customer vehicles in transit for Model 3 was primarily due to a significant increase in production towards the end of the quarter.
    • Interesting news on reservations is in from Tesla. "The remaining net Model 3 reservations count at the end of Q2 still stood at roughly 420,000 even though we have now delivered 28,386 Model 3 vehicles to date," updates the EV automaker. There's been plenty of speculation on how patient Model 3 reservation holders would be through the slow Model production ramp.
    • TSLA +5.99% premarket to $363.52.
    • Source: Press Release
    • An NYC taxi commission study says area ride-hail drivers should get a raise to $17.22/hour after expenses, which would amount to $15/hour with an allowance for paid time off.
    • The study was conducted by two economists and found that 85% of the drivers earned less than that minimum amount. 
    • The 22.5% raise in net pay would lead to drivers taking home an additional $6,345 annually. 
    • Yellow cab drivers joined with Uber (UBER) and Lyft (LYFT) drivers to call for guaranteed minimum pay and limits on the number of cars for hire in NYC.
    • Uber, Lyft, Via, and Juno account for 80K vehicles in the city compared to the 13,587 yellow taxis. Riders take over 17M app-based rides, double the number of taxi trips. 
    • Airbus (OTCPK:EADSY) shares fell 3% in France overnight after Bloomberg said the planemaker would miss its delivery target for Pratt & Whitney-powered (NYSE:UTX) A320neo narrow-body jets this year.
    • "The Toulouse, France-based planemaker expects to deliver 30 to 40 fewer of the aircraft than it previously anticipated," according to the report.
    • Asked to comment on the report, an Airbus spokesman replied that Airbus was sticking to its overall forecast for deliveries of around 800 planes in general for 2018.

    • General Electric (GE -2.6%) slumps in early trading as longtime bear Stephen Tusa reiterates his Underweight rating and $11 price target on the stock, saying the company's turnaround strategy will not lead to a higher price.
    • The J.P. Morgan analyst says GE remains "significantly overvalued" after recent asset sales based on his sum-of-the-parts analysis: "At the current roughly $14 stock price, we calculate [the remaining company] needs to support ~$11 of value on the back of what we see as $0.40/$0.33 in EPS/[free cash flow] in 2019."
    • Tusa, who has been Underweight on GE since May 2016, sees "a reasonable bear case that… would imply $6 [per share] for [the remaining company] and a price target of $9."
    • "We still see structural concerns in the key Power markets, minimal margin for error on leverage, numerous tail liabilities at both GE and [GE Capital Services]," Tusa writes. "Perhaps not well understood is that 2019 is shaping up to be much like 2018, with management now messaging no decline in cash restructuring and only a modest decline in book restructuring."
    • Just last week, Tusa was out predicting GE's dividend will be cut "precipitously," perhaps in the "30%-plus range," by the end of 2019.
    • Constellation Brands (STZSTZ.B) updated on the value of its investment in cannabis player Canopy Growth during the company's Q2 earnings conference call (transcript).
    • "In Q1 we recognized an additional $258 million pre-tax unrealized gain from the change in fair value of the Canopy Growth investment and warrants, bringing the total pre-tax gain on this investment to over $700 million," noted CFO David Klein,
    • "We continue to work with Canopy Growth to develop and build cannabis brands," added CEO Rob Sands.
    • Shares of Constellation Brands are down 4.24% YTD.
    • Tesco (OTCPK:TSCDFOTCPK:TSCDY) and Carrefour (OTCPK:CRERFOTCPK:CRRFY) announce a long-term plan to combine their purchasing power amid threats from online powers such as Amazon and the Sainsbury-Asda combination.
    • "By working together and making the most of our collective product expertise and sourcing capability, we will be able to serve our customers even better, further improving choice, quality and value," says Tesco CEO Dave Lewis.
    • Union Gaming analyst John DeCree thinks investors should be excited about the investment opportunities in Las Vegas again.
    • "For so long, Vegas has been a non-gaming, RevPAR, margin story, and the market has lost sight that people actually play slot machines in Las Vegas," points out DeCree.
    • "We believe so much negative sentiment has been put on visitation numbers (down about 1% YTD) the market has lost sight of the bigger Las Vegas picture. We believe visitation has been temporarily impacted by both the October tragedy and very difficult convention calendar comp to 1Q17. In fact, other tourism indicators are pretty good, particularly air traffic, which is up over 3% YTD, and average daily auto traffic, which is up nearly 2% YTD," he adds.
    • Last week, Nevada gaming revenue numbers were reported at +6.3% for May, +5.8% quarter-to-date through the end of May and +4.2% year-to-date to May 31.
    • Nevada-related stocks: CZRBYDWYNNMGMLVSFLLRRRGDEN.
    • The Macau sector sold off in Hong Kong this morning, while in the U.S. premarket session Wynn Resorts (NASDAQ:WYNN) is down 3.79% and Las Vegas Sands (NYSE:LVS) is off 3.29%.
    • Union Gaming analyst Grant Govertsen notes that Macau casino business volume decelerated sharply in the last week of June. "We're surveying the market to see if there was a universal root cause, but at this point we're not concerned. Keep in mind that Macau has bad weeks all the time and one bad week doesn't make a trend," notes Govertsen.
    • He also points out the sector ran into a tough comparable from a year ago when June GGR was up 26%, but only attributes a small fraction of the revenue miss to World Cup fascination.
    • Macau casino stocks: Wynn Macau (OTCPK:WYNMFOTCPK:WYNMY), Sands China (OTCPK:SCHYYOTCPK:SCHYF), MGM China (OTCPK:MCHVFOTCPK:MCHVYMGM), Galaxy Entertainment (OTCPK:GXYEF), SJM Holdings (OTCPK:SJMHFOTCPK:SJMHY), Melco Resorts & Entertainment (NASDAQ:MLCO).
    • The all-time great walked onto Center Court Wimbledon today in an outfit by Japan's Uniqlo. His contract with Nike (NKE -2.8%) had expired on March 1.
    • Terms of Federer's deal with Uniqlo weren't disclosed, but ESPN is reporting a guarantee of $300M over 10 years.
    • AMC Entertainment (NYSE:AMC) updates on the record-setting U.S. box office in Q2.
    • "The record-setting second quarter was not only the largest second quarter of all time, but with an estimated $3.33 billion, it was also the largest of any individual quarter in box office history, blowing by the previous record of $3.09 billion set in the second quarter of 2015."
    • "Looking at the strength across and within the quarter, a record June finished an estimated 20.1% ahead of last year with an estimated record $1.27 billion, May finished 24% ahead of last year, and a record April finished 26% ahead of last year."
    • "June 2018 represents the fifth time in the past 10 months that the Hollywood domestic box office has set a record. September, December, February, April and June each set a record best for those respective months."
    • "Through the first half of 2018, the box office is up an estimated 9.6% versus the first six months in 2017, and 2018 is the fastest year in history to eclipse the $6 billion total box office mark."
    • Citi analyst Jim Suva reiterates a Buy rating for Apple (NASDAQ:AAPL) with a $200 price target (an 8% upside) and lists five reasons investors should buy ahead of the back-to-school season.
    • Suva’s list: Promising 2018 product lineup, capital returns, rising Service revenue, mid-term enterprise push, and an attractive valuation relative to prior cycles.   
    • The analyst says demand “is estimated to pick up during back to school/holiday quarter and production cuts typically precede new model launches in the fall.” 
    • Apple shares are down 0.8% premarket to $183.66.

  19. sunshine state – two weeks from closing out my position

  20. Atilan, thanks for the comments.

    I have explained the concept of the armchair trade many times.

    First you look at a promising stock with a div of more than 3 to 3.5 % minimum. AAPL has 1.5. So why would I buy a stock on nearly top of the scale to sell options against. This would only be good for a leap BCS. On top AAPL is hovering at 185 186 for some time. So even to play a BCS is not the best for my two cents. A dip would be more appropriate.

    You buy a possible undervalued stock at the near bottom of the scale and sell put call options against the stock. Here the put is a more secure sell and you can only be assigned with the call by even receiving a capital gain on the stock. Alternative you can reload. Should it still look like you get assigned with the put you have the choice to get out or get more stock.

    Simple game, but it looks people do not understand it.

    PFE a good stock but better at 32. MO and PM are two stocks are down at present but I am still selling options against the same if and when the old options expire.  F what’s wrong there, look at the div.! An easy game not much of a headache. I am normally looking at a return minimum of 2 to 2.5 % combined per month. Yes short term months give me more return but more work and concentration.

    For sure shots look at the latest TSLA trade of Phil!!!!

    So it is always up to the individual to decide. I hope you read me. Yodi

    • Auto supplier stocks are down amid more anxiety over the tariff battles between the U.S. and EU nations, China, Canada and Mexico.
    • The automobile industry is particularly sensitive to tariff wildcards due to the lengthy advance time on purchasing and manufacturing decisions.
    • Notable decliners include Delphi Technologies (DLPH -2.8%), Modine Manufacturing (MOD-3.3%), WABCO Holdings (WBC -2.5%), Visteon (VC -2.7%), Workhorse Group (WKHS -2.7%), Allison Transmission (ALSN -2.1%), Cooper-Standard (CPS -2.1%) and Aptiv (APTV -1.4%).

  21. Ouch, things getting uglier – no particular news…  

    No bottom for /KC yet:

    Goal on /SI though:

  22. Phil – if I want to buy some stock and sell calls a year out against it, is there any rule of thumb about how to choose strike price and option price and know if it is a fair deal or not?  For example selling AAPL June 19 $190 calls against shares of the $186 stock?   Adding some words here so it does not flag it as a duplicate question.

  23. Boy o boy how thick can it get? Any new play on the rising star TSLA? I think the old one we can barry.

  24. Phil What to do with 10 SCO 15 c Sep longs? What for a better entry to sell calls?

  25. Tangled- Add your call premium + gain on sale to get your ROI and then decide if its worth it.

    Ex. APPL 186.50 so assume you'll sell at 190 = +3.5

    June 190c looks like 17.50

    So total expected return (approx.) is $21 on 186.50 = ~11% for a year-ish plus dividends

  26. Rules/Tangled – Well, there's no set "rule" but you want to sell as much premium as possible.  With AAPL, if you sell the June $190s for $16, then effectively you've sold it for $206 as we expect AAPL to be higher in a year but I'd rather sell the June 2020 $185 calls for $26 as that's $211 so $10 more in pocket now and $10 more later but, of course, I would do neither as it ties up a lot of money for little return.

    Instead, I'd sell my stock ($187) and buy 5x June 2020 $180 ($27.50)/$220 ($13.50) bull call spreads for $14 ($70) and sell 1x June 2020 $180 puts for $20 and sell 2x the July $187.50 calls for $2.70 ($5.40) and that's $135.70 back in your pocket now and you still have $200 worth of spreads and 10 short call sales that can generate another $50+ ahead of you and your worst case to the downside is you own 1x AAPL again for $180.

    Wow, recovering yet again as I write – amazing market action.  Nas is green, RUT is lagging.

    SCO/Yodi – I'm pretty sure they'll do well after the holiday but I don't want to throw money at them – just in case..

  27. email What about AAPL stk at 180 in Jun 19?

    How about a good BCS on CELG Jan 20 65/85 @ 11.20 and sell the Jan 20 70 put for 5.95 and you can sell still 1/2 the Aug 85 caller for 1.51

  28. Seer/Barman/Stockbern – Interesting discussion.  I have spent considerable time researching this area, mainly to self diagnose issues that I have been experiencing with gluten/lactose. offers an inexpensive test available without a prescription, that will give you a snapshot at what bugs (and in what quantity) makeup your microbiome. Ubiome and others are working to figure out how the different bacteria are impacting our health.  Research is linking damaged gut bacteria to many diseases including diabetes, Alzheimers, heart disease, etc.  

    I find the subject fascinating, and really believe that this will be a major focus of medicine in the next 20 years.  Right now we know very little about how this community of bacteria works, but that is beginning to change.  It is really important to focus on feeding the good bugs in your gut, so they can thrive and provide you with a bunch of benefits.  They feed on various kinds of soluble fiber, found in fruits, vegetables, and grains.  Diversity in your diet = diversity in your microbiome.  Sugar feeds the bad bugs, so you want to minimize your intake as much as possible.  Proton pump inhibitors (acid blockers) are one of the most prescribed medicines in the US, and have been shown to be horrible for gut diversity.  I was stupidly on PPI's for acid reflux for a number of years because I didn't know better, and it is looking likely that my gut will never be the same.  If anyone is interested, I can point you in the right direction to learn more on this subject.  Just let me know.

  29. seer

    akkermansia muciniphila - Thanks for the additional detail….  


  30. Whimsical Fact: It’s Legal To Jump In NYC Fountains To Cool Down

  31. Phil – HMNY about to give you another bite of the (rotten) apple.

  32. In U.S., Record-Low 47% Extremely Proud to Be Americans

  33. HMNY/LTP, OOP, Albo – This time we're going to want to pull the trigger and DD at 0.20 and again at 0.10 if it gets there.  The 0.20 DD will net us in for 0.35 (and we get 1/2 out even) and another at 0.10 would net us in at 0.225 – if it gets that low.  We expected this dilution so this is what we've been waiting for.

  34. My two armchairs plays Jul 27 and Jan 19 on DAL 6/29 still playable.

  35. Would someone please explain to me why Madison Square Garden (MSG) is worth more than $300 per share ?   And if it's the real estate, why has the stock doubled in a little over two years ?

  36. FTR below 5.

  37. I only needed WYNN to stay above $160 for 18 more days.   Grrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrr

  38. albo remember the angles?

  39. Yodi  ?

  40. albo Where angles fail to try

  41. Got it.  Thanks, Yodi.

  42. Hi Palotay,

    my wife is little gluten intolerant and this has happened before of her taking antibiotics for prolonged time after the baby. I guess this is also related to gut bacteria. Would you direct to more information on this. appreciate your help.



  43. DAL/Yodi – Will be great if fuel prices calm down.

    MSG/Albo – Well, it's only $7.6Bn and they own the Knicks ($3Bn), Rangers ($1.5Bn) and about 24 clubs like Tao in Vegas and they own MSG, of course ($3Bn+) and the LA Forum ($50M) and Chicago Theater ($50M).  Also, if the city ever decides to rebuild Penn Station – they would have to pay MSG Billions as it would be a new contract.  Of course there is also MSG Networks and their broadcast rights…  

    On the other hand, the company is basically family-owned (Dolans) and you'll never realize the value of the assets and the earnings are not at all exciting – which is why we've never been interested.

    FTR/Albo – We're back to waiting for earnings and ignoring the BS.  

    WYNN/Tangled – That Macau report was not good. 

  44. MSG – And they don't pay any dividend.

    Thanks, Phil.

  45. Why is anyone surprised:

    AT&T is raising the base price of its DirecTV Now streaming service by $5 per month, despite promising in court that its acquisition of Time Warner Inc. would lower TV prices.

    Welcome to Trump's America!

  46. StJ be fair.  I am no fan of Trump but plenty of mergers that were bad for consumers were approved under Obama.

  47. Model 3 Deliveries Hit Record

  48. Kentucky cuts dental, vision care for up to 460k people

  49. How Much Does the Average Millennial Make?

  50. ‘The New Normal’: Wildfires Roar Across the West, Again

  51. Iran issues oil warning as UAE says production can rise

  52. Trump defends tariffs despite signs of trouble in global markets

  53. Tesla engineering head Doug Field steps down