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Thrilling Thursday – Markets Make a Remarkable Comeback While You Sleep

Nice reversal!  

The Dow is actually 100 points higher this morning than it was yesterday after falling 300 points at yesterday's lows.  Kudos to Doug, our Hedge Fund trader at Capital Ideas, who actually said to me yesterday morning that "this whole thing can end the day with the Dow higher" – he was only off by 12 hours…

Our first attempt at going long, from the Morning Report, was a failure as we blasted through all those levels but what fantastic entries we got during the day, as noted in our Live Member Chat Room:

August 15th, 2018 at 10:37 am | (Unlocked) | Permalink

Indexes getting worse, not even going to attempt to go long again.  Gold and silver way off too.  /SI at $14.50, WPM getting killed so good time to sell the 2020 $20 puts for $3+. 

/SI $14.40?  Wow!  /NQ just hit 7,340, that's down 120 for the day, about 1.5% so look for 25-point bounces to 7,365 (weak) and 7,405 (strong) but OUCH!

August 15th, 2018 at 11:18 am | (Unlocked) | Permalink

Huge 10MB build is very, very bad but note /RB had a draw so best bet to play at $1.99 but VERY DANGEROUS TRADE as the market is crazy at the moment and it's still more than two weeks to the holiday and we have a rollover in between

We really want to play /RBV8, long which is Oct at $1.884 at the moment! 

August 15th, 2018 at 11:32 am | (Unlocked) | Permalink 

/KC/Palotay – Ugh, I forgot I have 3 long /KCN9 that are getting clobbered.  Same as /SI though – great chance to get in at a cheap price ($114), if you can stand the pain.

The Nasdaq (/NQ) bottomed out at 7,316 and passed our goal at 7,405 so we took the money and ran at 7,425 and we'll look for a fresh horse to ride if the indexes break higher from here but a nice $5,385 gain off that call helps pay for my vacation – while I'm on it.  

As I said earlier in the week, learning to trade the Futures let's you get "fine-tuning" control of your portfolio and take advantages of silly market moves and, more importantly, slap on some last-minute hedges when the news hits after trading hours and you find yourself too bullish or too bearish.  

In our case, we are very well-balanced in our Member Portfolios and adding /NQ longs was a way to lock in some SQQQ gains from our Short-Term Portfolio, which gained $38,000 (38%) while the market collapsed as we had heavily hedged against EXACTLY the sort of thing that happened yesterday.  Despite the bullish year for the market, our main hedging portfolio is now up 150% as we've generally had good timing taking advantage of these market dips – though not yesterday as we left the hedged open and much of those gains will reverse but, that's not a terrible thing as the STP is a $100,000 portfolio that protects the longs in our $500,000 Long-Term Portfolio and those losses will also reverse. 

*****************************

Sorry, apparently trying to upload our portfolios breaks Disney's Internet.  I've been trying to get back on since 8 so I won't try to finish the post and we'll more on to Chat! 

 


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  1. Sorry about the messed up posting – we have now figured out that it was Disney (who uses AT&T) who blocked PSW due to traffic and it took me all morning to get them to unblock it so I can't risk doing uploads so we'll just discuss the positions that need to be adjusted in our portfolios and I'll do a full review next week, when I'm home.

    Out of /NQ longs, still in /SI, still in /KCN9, still in /RBV8.

    What a crazy turnaround this is – and the Dollar hasn't even dropped yet.  

    There is NOTHING impressive about holding $65 – it SHOULD be bouncy, not just dribble support…

    This is why being well-balanced is the most important thing you can do as a trader! 


  2. WMT is up $9.50 – that's about 80 Dow points right there.

    The big excitement today is that we are back to the trade table with China – silly reason for such a huge reversal but it is what it is.


  3. Of course Disney blocks you.  You aren't spending money with them if you are on the internet.


  4. Phil….Enjoy your day….you're on a 'boat' in the Atlantic…. ;)


  5. I'll be headed to the 'Highway to the Sky' in beautiful Rocky Mountain National Park….. :)


  6. The other day we did have a discussion with one of our members re rolling cherry calls.

    I tried to explain that not all cherry calls will go worthless.

    Today I wish to give you just on overall picture of my holdings of WMT.

    As you will notice WMT is up more than 10%. Obvious my Aug 24 89 Cherry call is well under water. Do I panic?

    No, as I tried to explain the other day you always have to look at the overall picture.

    Well I hold Jan 19 and Jan 20 BCS, as well as stock for armchair trades.

    My 89 cherry call I sold for 1.79 now worth 10.64 at the moment.

    So 89 plus 10.64 = 99.64. Stock value now 99.09.  They pay a div. of .52.  99.64 -.52 = 99.12

    Here we look at 3 cents premium.

    As I am writing this article I notice the stock is already falling,

    However my point I wish to put to you is, that my overall picture of this holding shows a credit today of 209.00,

    As explain the other day, you always need to look at the overall picture.

    In this case I will still hold off to roll and see how the stock settles by tonight.


  7. DIS/Tangled – Actually, they charge $89 per Gig!  RCL and NCLH both have free or one-price WiFi – I had no issues working on either one of them.

    Boat/1020 – You know, I have a nice breakfast, do my work, have a swim, see a show or a movie, go out to a nice restaurant for dinner – I can do that at home!  I understand why my Grandpa Max moved to Bournemouth from London – he was two blocks from the beach and a few blocks from town with everything he needed – there was no reason to go on vacation from there!  

    Related image

    Grandpa had the penthouse of the brick building sticking up alone in the top right of the first image.  I just took the kids there last Summer – I still love that town!

    WMT/Yodi – Very nice patience play.

    25,500 on /YM!



  8. Poor Elon – TSLA is not making a comeback.

    Even if I were stupid enough to have offered to buy TSLA for $420/share, I would not be so stupid as to, after seeing this reaction, come back with an offer of $360.  Not that I would pay $360 or even $260 for TSLA – I think you can make a case for $150, maybe.


  9. I still like IP for a future armchair trade. Buy the stock at 51.29 and sell the Sept. 21 srangle 50/52.5 for 1.70

    Combined monthly return 3.01%. Break even points 48.30/54.20


  10. These VXX Dec 18 90 calls sold for 1.13 yesterday are now 0.68 today! 


  11. Phil no complains about you last TSLA play!!!!!!!!! For me up 4K, even that I did not get in at 377.00


  12. Big Chart – If these bounces hold, then this is all a very positive test of the moving averages for the bulls.

    IP/Yodi – They took a $1.1Bn tax credit last year on $1Bn in Income so, more realistically, they make about $800M and $51.50 is $21Bn so not really as cheap as they look.  Reduced share count, however, has them earning over $4/share – so not that bad either.  

    They have a lot of debt and the company is all about packaging these days (thanks AMZN!) or they'd be dead.  

    I agree with this assessment, a bit to "blah" for my taste:

    Key Strengths

    International Paper's global scale is a key advantage complimented by an extensive distribution system, and we love the resiliency embedded in its history that dates back to the end of the 19th century. The firm recently purchased Weyerhaeuser's Pulp business for $2.2 billion, which has only added to balance sheet issues but is expected to result in $175 million in annual synergies by the end of 2018. International Paper's free cash flow generation averaged more than $863 million annually from 2015-2017 and has been sufficient in covering annual run rate cash dividend obligations of just under $770 million. Though the firm cut its dividend in 2009, management has not been shy about increasing the payout since then.

    Potential Weaknesses

    As International Paper's dividend cut in 2009 indicates, its business is not without material risks, and we have a difficult time getting excited about any company so tied to the future of paper. We're not fond of the firm's balance sheet, which was worsened by the recent Weyerhaeuser deal, as net debt stood at ~$10.1 billion at the end of 2017. The company's scale is not enough to help it avoid industry overcapacity during economic troughs, and returns can dip below its cost of capital at times. Though its free cash flow generation has been strong historically, it has been inconsistent as of late, falling to ~$366 million in 2017 and ~$1.1 billion in 2016 from over $1.8 billion in 2013. Stronger income ideas are available, in our opinion.


  13. Made another penny on RB out watching oil  now


  14. BA up $11, that's another 90 points of Dow gains.  Makes the rally less impressive when 2/3 comes from 2 companies.

    /SI is my superstar – I'd love to see them break over $14.75 but happy to take profits here if $14.70 fails.


  15. CLU8 will roll to CLV8 tonight when market reopens tonight CLV8 is rufly .70 cents lower than U8 contract


  16. Phil /Bournemouth:

    I spent 1972  there, at that time a lot of students from Europe were there to learn English, it was like a small UE convention, people of Europe, of Arabia, no Chinese but a lot of Japanese and Eloise…Ohh Eloise!, a sweet swiss girl, OMGooood….. and the Casino!, I still have the Major invitation to all students for a Casino night invited by them. I was 17 then……..


  17. Aretha Franklin died today


  18. PAZZA is an other stock which is likely recovering and good to look for a new BCS. Possible first buy the Jan 20 40 call and sell only the 37.5 put, and hold before selling the Jan 20 50 caller. I have done well with selling cherry calls on this stock, even on the drop from 63 to 43.


  19. Sorry the symble is PZZA


  20. Help me out with vernacular “Cherry Calls” means what exactly ??? I am still a newbie who needs to learn by asking


  21. Yodi /PZZA ;

    It´s like CPB, nothing exciting but gives a 3,3%  and looks at an interesting point in price… defensive?


  22. Phil thanks on IP. I have this play already for a while on my books and I find the Stock is very stable on the lower scale around 50.

    During my last winter vacation in Spain, I passed one of their plants on my Bike rounds just about every day, and the place was humming. So I entered my first play on them from Spain.


  23. Advill PZZA pays only 2.3 % therfore BCS and no armchair. Yes CPB pays 3.3%.However CPB has recovered from 32 to 42 quiet a bit, therfore for me not any more a lower scale contender.


  24. /CL/Bert – Thanks for reminders, that's why we're playing /RBV8.

    Bournemouth/Advill – I spent many summers there, got to really love the town and it's actually gotten nicer, for the most part – very trendy restaurants and such thanks to all those international students who decided to stay.   

    Aretha/Jomp – She was so great! 

    PZZA/Yodi – We picked some up for the hedge fund, mostly short puts – I think they've suffered enough.

    For the LTP, I like:

    • Sell 15 2020 $42.50 puts for $7.90 ($11,850)
    • Buy 20 2020 $35 calls for $15 ($30,000)
    • Sell 20 2020 $50 calls for $6 ($12,000) 

    That's net $6,150 on the $30,000 trade that's $17,000 in the money to start!  Upside potential at $50 (not ambitious) is $23,850 (387%) which will pay for a nice cruise next summer!  


  25. I did point out stock like MO and PM, MO was 54 when I bought stock again, Same with PM at 77.

    Now the horses are out of the stable again. PM traded last year at 123!!!


  26. PZZA yes similar play, though as I said, I hold back on selling the 50 caller for a while. I expect a better entry. Same with selling cherry calls. Patience is the word.


  27. Phil, couple questions on LB;

    I've been interested in putting a position on in LB recently, a lot of what i've looked at in terms of their relative multiples vs what they've traded at historically is definitely bullish. (currently Below the low end of their historical P/E range; past 5 years their average low P/E has been approx 14.5, average high P/E 23.5). And the same can be said for their price/sales multiples. 

    I've recently gone through some of the financial statements and wanted to get your take on a couple things; Since 2016;

    Net income has been dropping

    Cash flow from Operations has been dropping

    Cash/current assets have been dropping

    Is the current dividend safe? It seems like if the turnaround doesnt start to take form soon the dividend may need to be cut? 

    I do realize there are some structural changes going on, they recently dumped the swimwear lines and are re-vamping some stores. And although growth at the traditional victoria secret stores has been poor, some of their other brands like Bath and Body have been growing nicely. 

    Just wanted to get your take on the above points, do you think the dividend is safe for a while or no? General thoughts on their turnaround? 

    Anything we should be looking for in the upcoming earnings? 

    As I said, i still like LB and am looking to get in, just wanted your take on the above. Thanks!


  28. RUT and NYA below 50 dma at close yesterday. Today's move up on less volume them yesterdays down day.

    Market spikes up on announcement of meeting with China. .  Trump can spike market 100's of points just by announcing that he is in talks. I haven't seen much press coverage of the European (supposedly great) deal since Trump trotted out to the Rose Garden with that announcement.


  29. Speaking of Portfolios, let's see if there's anything we have to do.  Not much, thankfully, as we're generally well-balanced.  If I fail to mention something you think needs adjusting – please ask – I'm a little handicapped here (can you still use that word?). 

    Calling it a day on /SI unless we go over $14.80, where I'll go back in using that for a stop.  Wasn't going to throw this away:

    We played that right, took a few pokes on the way down and then enjoyed the ride up when it finally came. 

    LB/CRS – I don't have my big financials here (too data intensive) so let's discuss more next week.  Generally, LB trimmed a couple of lines and they are revamping others, which is a big up-front investment and, of course, when you change the mix, you are mis-targeting current customers to some extent and it takes a while to flow through to the bottom line.  Dividends have done nothing but go up since 2000 , when it was chopped in half during the crash.  The company is sitting in $1Bn in cash and the quarterly dividends are just $170M – so it would be a while before they had to cut those though, at 7.5% – it has gotten ridiculous but that's a function of the ridiculously cheap stock price.

    Earnings are next Weds, should be interesting. 

    $32/share is $9Bn and, if I were them, I'd announce I'm cutting the dividend by 50% and let the stock drop to $25 where I'd buy back $2.5Bn worth (about 1/3 at that price) which would pop earnings from $1Bn to $1.32Bn less another $100m in dividends we don't have to pay to ourselves is $1.42Bn so 50% bump in earnings and we're still paying $1.20 per $25 share (5%) and now making $1.4Bn for 177M shares is $8/share at $25 for a p/e of 3.25 – lower dividend or not, that won't last and the stock would pop to $50 in no time. 

    If we bought 2.5M 2020 $25 calls for $4 on the drop to $25, at $50 we'd get back $6.25Bn and we could pay off all our debts too!  

    Who's with me???  

    Image result for bluto who's with me animated gif


  30. LB – if management agree to work harder to lose the moniker of worst performing stock YTD in the S&P 500 then I'm with you!!!


  31. what just happened to EWZ?


  32. OK, Quick Review time:

    Short-Term Portolio (STP) was at $250,000 so up 150% is up $38,000 (38%) since last review as of yesterday but now back to 131%, still up from last review but not as impressive.  Still, it means the hedges are doing their job, which means we can vacation in peace – which is the main point because sometimes you lose your internet connection and you can't trade, right?

    Anyway, of course TSLA is a big winner and SCO doing well and IQ added to the kitty – all is well and I want to maintain the heavy hedges into the weekend, so no changes though DXD Aug spread will go worthless – that one we should have cashed yesterday at $6,000.

    Long-Term Portfolio (LTP):  It's up 36.9% at $684,000 so, combined with the STP, we're over $900,000 so it's a very good year already.  Yesterday I think we tested 30% so a 7% swing there is $35,000 which was offset by the $19,000 swing in the STP – so we're balanced just like I want to be during the uncertainty.

    • HMNY – We have 80,000 at an average of 0.12, now 0.04 – just a lottery ticket now.  Just $3,200 to DD to 160,000 but I'd rather wait for 0.02 to get 320,000 shares for the same money.
    • Short Puts – Almost all green except WHR, which I still like.
    • ABX – Crazy low testing $10 but no urgency to adjust.
    • BJO – Also very low but no urgency.
    • CDE – Let's buy back the 2020 short $10 calls for 0.30 ($1,500).
    • CMG – Let's buy back the short 2020 $270 puts for $2.50 ($1,250) – we'll sell higher puts on a pullback.
    • F – We closed them in the OOP but I think not in the LTP.  No urgency to adjust but tempted to buy more.
    • GE – Disaster but waiting for 2021s to make adjustments.
    • HRB – Back over our $25 target after our agressive adjustments on the dip makes this a huge winner:

    IBM, IMAX also back at the top of our adjusted ranges. 

    • MT – Big dip and we'll DD but no hurry.

    That's it, not much to do but watch and wait – it's the kind of Portfolio you can leave alone all summer! 


  33. Phil; thoughts on the CHL position in the LTP


  34. FU GOLD MINERS!!!!!!


  35. Team Trump is on TV making the case that the US is kicking China's ass (thanks to tariffs, of course).  This is a terrible idea, trying to embarrass China – they won't take it well…

    EWZ/Jabob – No idea.  

    LB/Winston – Not sure they care.

    CHL/Options – That has 5 legs in the LTP:

    Long Call 2019 15-MAR 40.00 CALL [CHL @ $46.19 $1.04] 15 8/3/2018 (211) $7,500 $5.00 $1.40 $5.00     $6.40 - $2,100 28.0% $9,600
    Short Call 2019 15-MAR 45.00 CALL [CHL @ $46.19 $1.04] -15 8/3/2018 (211) $-2,700 $1.80 $0.85     $2.65 - $-1,275 -47.2% $-3,975
    Short Put 2019 15-MAR 45.00 PUT [CHL @ $46.19 $1.04] -15 8/3/2018 (211) $-4,050 $2.70 $-0.83     $1.88 $-0.53 $1,238 30.6% $-2,813
    Long Call 2018 21-SEP 40.00 CALL [CHL @ $46.19 $1.04] 20 3/13/2018 (36) $13,000 $6.50 $-0.30 $4.85     $6.20 - $-600 -4.6% $12,400
    Short Put 2018 21-SEP 47.50 PUT [CHL @ $46.19 $1.04] -10 3/23/2018 (36) $-3,800 $3.80 $-1.25     $2.55 - $1,250 32.9% $-2,550

    Not sure what thoughts I should have.  Our Aug play is a conservative March $40/45 bull call spread that's in the money for $7,500 that we paid net $750 for just 2 weeks ago.  Our March play was a Sept spread where the short puts should be left near worthless and the long calls are nicely in the money with CHL still low in the channel.

    What would you like me to think?


  36. Phil,  What is your avg in /KCN9?   dipped own to $113   Thanks


  37. Butterfly Portfolio Update: $129,957 is up 30% for the year and up almost $10,000 (10%) for the month!  Partly it's because we added more positions, so our monthly Premium Burn (the good kind) is greater than it was and that's a game we ALWAYS win but, as a bonus, our targets have been good as well. Considering what a low VIX environment we're in, this portfolio is doing great.

    • MDLZ – Well, that's one way to do great in the Butterfly Portfolio – nail your targets!  Next earnings are late Oct so we can sell 5 Oct $42 calls for $1.30 and 5 Oct $42 puts for $1.20 for another $1,250 in our pocket while we wait for something to happen (but nothing is fine too).
    Short Call 2018 17-AUG 42.00 CALL [MDLZ @ $42.11 $0.30] -5 7/12/2018 (1) $-700 $1.40 $-1.18 $-1.40     $0.22 $0.09 $590 84.3% $-110
    Short Put 2018 17-AUG 42.00 PUT [MDLZ @ $42.11 $0.30] -5 7/9/2018 (1) $-500 $1.00 $-0.92     $0.09 $-0.22 $458 91.5% $-43

     All good, nothing to do at the moment.  Guess we can add another one since these 3 aren't stressing us out….

    Options Opportunity Portfolio (OOP):  Up 21% at $121,000 but mostly because VRX is now fixed (and now BHC) and that's a big winner that looked like a loser last month.  Otherwise, we're pretty net steady:

    HMNY – I have 40,000 at 0.12 avg – just a lottery ticket we keep pumping money into.  

    CDE – We're buying back the 20 short 2020 $10 calls for 0.30.

    GE – Will also  need to be tended to.

    HRB – Someone remind me next week we might want to cover.

    Nothing urgent but plenty of things I want to adjust.

    Money Talk Portfolio:  $91,340 is up 82.9% and that's up about $7,000 (14%) since our last update on the TV show – not bad for a portfolio we only touch once a quarter and, since I'm not on the show this month – NO CHANGES!

    Well, thank goodness our positions are generally great and well-hedged as we can pay less attention to them for two straight weeks and it really doesn't matter because we're BEING THE HOUSE – and we don't even have to be there to play the game – just makes sure the doors are open and someone is taking the bets – statistics take care of the rest!


  38. /KCN9/Grass – I have 5 long at 115 avg at the moment.


  39. LB share performance. Most leader's of management teams will have performance bonuses based on a range of criteria – shareholder return is likely to be one of them. Unless of course the CEO is on the way out.


  40. Intel better watch out:

    https://www.engadget.com/2018/08/16/arm-says-chips-will-outperform-intel-laptop-cpus/

    Even so, it's telling that ARM might be in the ballpark. There's already talk of Qualcomm making a truly laptop-worthy Snapdragon in the near future — Deimos and Hercules could be fast enough that you might choose an ARM-based PC for a speed advantage, not just longer battery life. And that could give Intel a good reason to panic. It's still struggling to make 10-nanometer chips at the same time as ARM is talking about 7nm and 5nm parts. If Intel can't find a way to stay ahead, it may see big PC makers switching to ARM as they look for more powerful options.


  41. Phil, how much are you paying for internet in your cruising,? when we do the Lisbon – Sint Maarten trip the cost is $100 /300 MB!


  42. Internet/Advill – It's a huge rip-off on DIS, $89/Gig and I use about 6-7 in a week (and that's my trying to cut back).

    /YM 25,600 is a very tempting short after this madness.  If I weren't on a ship, I think I'd play it with tight stops above.  

    Lined up with 2,845, 7,400 and good old 1,685

    I think Trump and Kudlow taunting China pretty much guarantees these negotiations will go nowhere.

    President Trump's top economic adviser Larry Kudlow believes China has seen a major economic slowdown as a result of its ongoing trade dispute with the U.S., remarking Thursday that the country's economy "looks terrible" at the moment.

    "Their economy is just heading south," Kudlow told reporters during a Cabinet meeting, citing "the latest batch of numbers" from China's markets. "Right now, their economy looks terrible."

    [China: Trade war with US means we'll shop for groceries elsewhere]

     

    Kudlow's comments came hours after he announced U.S. plans to resume trade talks with officials in Beijing later this month, causing a surge in the stock market Thursday morning. Two previous meetings this summer between the Trump administration and Chinese government failed to produce an agreement or framework on Chinese trade practices, tariffs, or other issues like intellectual property theft.

    As a result, both countries have engaged in back-and-forth threats and imposed retaliatory tariffs. Earlier this month, Trump said he was considering raising the tariff rate on $200 billion of Chinese goods to 25 percent, in addition to the 25 percent tariffs his administration already slapped on $34 billion of Chinese goods.

    "The Chinese government, in its totality, must not underestimate President Trump's toughness and willingness to continue this battle to eliminate tariffs and nontariff barriers and quotas, to stop the theft of intellectual property and to stop the forced transfer of technology," Kudlow told CNBC earlier Thursday, adding that "those are the asks that we've been making now for quite some time."

    Speaking at the Cabinet meeting, Kudlow also said the "biggest story" of 2018 is the "economic boom" that has occurred as a result of the president's agenda.

    "Most people thought [it] was impossible and they were wrong," he said.

    Taking Larry at his word is no reason to be up 400 points!

    Image result for larry kudlow cocaine

    Related image



  43. CTL is up 25% in the past 8 days and the chart looks vey spikey.

    Cashed in some of my calls.


  44. Well, that was a couple of crazy days – good thing there's a bar right above my room!  

    I'm putting in a half day tomorrow – hopefully things calm down! 


  45. Albo- are you putting any covers on your stock? (i.e., short calls)


  46. YODI                

    SO i bought ABX at 10 sold jan 19  11 calls at .48 and 10 puts at  .77 so if they stay flat I make 1,24 return per 100 shares, Is this what your talking about


  47. CMG    buyer of 550 Nov $530 puts today.  Now another health scare…..hmmm


  48. Anyone with experience in moving money between countries, I need advice on what is the lowest cost, safest way to transfer and exchange currency  It involves substantial amounts.  In my previous experience, my bank charges a huge margin so I would prefer to find a different way.  


  49. Pstas – Don't want to cover any stock.  It's firmly residing in my long term portfolio where I'll receive 12% annually from the dividends.  Even if I were inclined to cover some stock, there's very little premium in the calls.

    Still holding quite a few calls and short puts, most of which are out to 2020.


  50. Good morning!

    Dollar is down and our indexes are holding so far but no follow-through in Europe.

    Money/Skier – if you are relocating, there’s a lot of issues with tax implications, so be careful.  If not, you may not need to physically move it – just make the money you have accessible in country II.  Anyway, need more details like how much, what purpose and where to where?








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