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Record High Wednesday – Will the Fed Pop Us or Drop Us?

We are so close – again.

Back on May 3rd, I explained how the market was confusing efficiency for a strong economy, noting that Corporations can make more money while the people starve.  At the time, I noted that materials sector performance looked too weak for a proper bull market and, for the quarter, we're still in very bad shape with Petrolum down 9%, Natural Gas down 19% and Copper down 7.5% – those are not signs of a strong recovery.

Speaking of Copper (/HGZ19), yesterdsay morning's long trade idea from our PSW Report (subscribe here if you don't want to miss our trade ideas) with contracts jumping from $2.64 to $2.70 for gains of $3,000 per contract before lunch!  Our options trade idea for Freeport-McMoRan (FCX) is slower-moving but that stock gained 1% yesterday and will really take off if there's progress with China.

Meanwhile, the indexes blasted higher as Trump tweeted out that he will be meeting with China's Xi at the G20 this weekend and, although that's kind of the point of the G20 – people are very excited about it.  Also, as noted in yesterday's Morning Report, Draghi fever spread across the markets and anticipation couldn't be higher that our Fed will also signal that it's ready to cut rates, buy bonds, buy assets – whatever it takes to keep the rally going becuase what on this Earth is more important than making rich people richer?  

Nonetheless, we are urging caution into the Fed Report and yesterday, in our Live Member Chat Room, we discussed a good 3-month hedge to take us, not just through today but through the summer:

Hedge/QC – Two factors in selecting a hedge is which index is ahead of the others (that's what the Big Chart is for) and which index is most likely to fail.  From the Big Chart, the Dow is now back to the May high S&P close and Nas lagging a bit and RUT lagging a lot so Dow or S&P and BA may come down more and drag the Dow and others if the trade talks blow up so I still like DXD, which is a 2x Ultra-Short for the Dow so a 10% drop in the Dow (back to June lows) would be up 20% on DXD which is $27 so $27 x 1.2 = $32.40 so that's our target and now we consider out time-frame and you'll be gone for July and the next DXDs are Oct after July so now we know what to play:

  • Sell 10 TAP 2021 $47.50 puts for $4.40 ($4,400) 
  • Buy 30 DXD Oct $25 calls for $2.75 ($8,250) 
  • Sell 30 DXD Oct $32 calls for 0.80 ($2,400) 

That's net $1,450 on the $21,000 spread so there's $19,550 (1,348%) upside potential against your cash outlay.  You are obligated to own 1,000 shares of TAP at $47.50 ($47,500) if it goes lower but it's nice to have a hedge that's $2 ($6,000) in the money to start and TAP at $54 has a 12% cushion before the puts kick in.  

We like Molson Coors (TAP) because of a partnership they have with Hexo (HEXO) to make THC-infused beer.  We think HEXO is too risky but TAP is a great bargain stock we wouldn't mind owning and selling the 2021 $47.50 puts pays us $4.40 now in exchange for a promise to buy TAP for net $43.10 between now and Jan, 2021.  The stock is at $54.11 now so that's $11 (20%) below the current price – that's our worst case.  

We like to use short puts to offset the cost of our hedges as we're getting paid to buy stocks we'd like to own at a discount (see "How to Buy a Stocks for a 15-20% Discount").  It's a very effective strategy because, if the market goes down enough for TAP to drop 20%, the hedge is likely to pay us $19,550 – covering 40% of the cost of the TAP stock we'd be assigned.  Of course, the money is to hedge our WHOLE porfolio, not just the one stock so it's important to pick strong stocks that are likely to recover as your offset.

Another hedge we have in our Short-Term Portfolio, whose job it is to protect our Long-Term Portfolio, is shorting the Ultra-Long Russell ETF (TNA), which is back at $60 but our hedge is still holding up well for the moment:

TNA Long Put 2020 17-JAN 65.00 PUT [TNA @ $60.88 $1.92] 40 4/17/2019 (212) $43,000 $10.75 $1.03 $11.19     $11.78 - $4,100 9.5% $47,100
TNA Short Put 2020 17-JAN 35.00 PUT [TNA @ $60.88 $1.92] -40 2/15/2019 (212) $-8,800 $2.20 $-0.39     $1.82 $-0.09 $1,540 17.5% $-7,260

TNA is a 3x long ETF so, if the Russell were to fall 10%, back to 1,400, then TNA should drop 30%, to $42.62 and that would put our $65 puts $22.38 in the money and the net $34,200 spread we entered would be worth $89,520 for a gain of $55,320 (161%) and we're already up $5,640 (16.5%) but there's plenty of room to run so still good for a new hedge.  The Russell has been a lagging index in the recovery from the last 10% dip and is now resting right on the 50-day moving average so it's going to be a leading indicator today:

Not only is Fed easing now baked into the market but President Trump yesterday threatened to "demote" Fed Chair Powell if he doesn't like the rate decision.  Of course, demoting Fed Chairs is not a thing, but try telling that to people watching Fox news.  Bloomberg News reported Tuesday morning that the White House had looked into demoting Powell in February and Trump was asked if that's still his intention to which the President replied "Let's see what he does" and that Trump wants "a level playing field" with money-printing Europe.  

There would be nothing more ridiculous than squandering a rate cut when there is no crisis, employment is full and the markets are at all-time highs but Trump is still running far, far short of Obama's first-term performance in Market Gains, Job Creation, Housing Index, Consumer Confidence, GDP Growth, Wage Gains, Business Confidence, Deficit Reduction, Foreign Policy,  Aprroval Ratings…  – so he needs a win SOMEWHERE!  

Yesterday we had a bit of success shorting the Dow BELOW (not above) the 26,500 line and, if the Fed disappoints (2pm), that could be an exciting play for the day.  26,550 was the high on the /YM Futures so that's the next shorting line if 26,500 holds but I really can't imagine what the Fed could say that would justify yesterday's rally.  

Speaking of justifications, OPEC is acquiescing to Russia's demands to move their meeting to July 1-2 in Vienna and OPEC will do ANYTHING to get the Russians to join them in cutting production – just in time to screw American drivers over the July 4th Holiday.  If you believe in OPEC+, you can play the September Gasoline Futures (/RBU19) long off the $1.65 line ($1.62 has been the lows so I'd plan to DD there for a $1.635 avg and stop below $1.60) or you can play the Gasoling ETF (UGA) and I'd go with:

  • Sell 10 UGA July $28 puts for $1.40 ($1,400) 
  • Buy 20 UGA July $27 calls for $1.70 ($3,400)
  • Sell 20 UGA July $29 calls for 0.75 ($1,500) 

That's net $500 on the $4,000 spread so $3,500 (700%) profit potential in just 30 days and your worst-case scenario is ending up long 1,000 shares of UGA at net $28.50 (assuming your spread is wiped out).  Trump wants the Dollar weaker, which is also good for Oil and Gasoline prices and OPEC certainly wants Oil higher and Tesla (TSLA) may collapse soon as Q2 deliveries end up disappointing people after all – all possible positives for UGA.

Well, there's a few ways to make money while we wait for the Fed to disappoint us.  

Be careful out there…


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  1. Markets are finally realizing that we have maybe the best economy in the history of our country. Which was the basis for all these tax cuts and the need to lower rates.

  2. Markets are finally realizing that we have maybe the best economy in the history of our country. Which was the basis for all these tax cuts and the need to lower rates.

  3. Morning, All!

    We will not be having our usual weekly webinar today.

    We'll be back on schedule next week!

  4. Not a good opinion of bitcoin there:

    Surprising to me though:

    The libertarians may cry freedom and equality, but their world is the opposite. A Citigroup analysis of bitcoin from 2014 found that ‘47 individuals held about 30%, another 900 held a further 20%, the next 10,000 about 25% and another million about 20%.’ No country on earth has such an unequal distribution of assets and wealth.

  5. Pros and cons of a rate cut:

    2 cons:

    2. Credit spreads are near record lows and the stock market is near record highs. Are they discounting good times ahead or are markets just responding to hopes of a cut and the Fed and the markets are just chasing each other in circles?

    3. Rate cuts from here would further inflate the everything asset price bubble and not help economic growth;

  6. Good Morning!

  7. Phil; a question about managing margin.  I ask for two reasons.  Your update to CMG seems like it's a huge risk by adding the new call spread and 10 560 puts.  Those puts put you in a position to possibly have to buy 1000 shares at $560 or $560,000.  I know portfolio margin does not hold back that much but isn't the risk too big for a $1.3 million dollar portfolio?  On the Boca portfolio, where your not eligible for portfolio margin, it seems like that TAP position would hold huge percentage of your overall buying power.  Please correct me if I'm wrong.  Thanks

  8. Hi Phil, 

    I have a small version of your original SPWR bc spread:


    L   20 SPWR Jan ’20   $5c  @ $2.58

    S   20 SPWR Jan ’20  $10c @ $.60

    S   10 SPWR Jan’20   $7p  @ 22.49


    Would you also suggest to cash this out and buy your suggested  ’21  $7 / $12 bcs?



  9. QUIK, my personal albatross, hit a new low today as they are selling stock at $.50 through an underwriting handled by Oppenheimer.  

    However,  they reiterated their forecast to increase revenues by more than 50% this year.  Still no fundamentals yet to justify even this price.  It's all based on the come.  I remain battered and bruised but still over weighted and cautiously optimistic.

  10. Good morning!  

    I have to finish the LTP and then I'm out of here at 1pm (off to NYC until Mon). 

    I will be at the airport at 2 so hopefully I can weigh in on the Fed.

    Note above I still like shorting the Dow if it crosses back below 26,500 or tests 26,650 but the RUT is the key indicator for the day, over or under the 50 dma at 1,550.  /NQ was again rejected at 7,700.

    While I'm tempted to get more bearish in our portfolios, we don't actually know what's going to happen and they are battle-tested fairly neutral so I'm not going to change them now.  

    BitCoin/StJ – That's why it will ultimately fail.  If there are 17M BitCoins in print (or whatever) and 47 people have 5.5M, that's an implied $55Bn right now and people are fantasizing about $50,000 BitCoin, which would be $275Bn or about $6Bn for each of the $47 so the whole thing is a joke and always has been – as are most cryptos.  There were no "early adapters" of the Euro that got to have Billions of them for $1,000 – that's simply not how currency works – no matter how much the 47 would like it to…

    Of course, being a BitCoin Billionaire (they all are) means you have a lot of money to spread around to buy PR for BitCoin – which is why it endures despite the collapse that already cost these guys $55Bn (they were down to $20Bn not long ago).  That's still a lot of money and now they've learned they have to spend money to pump up their fake fortunes and that's the phase we're in now. 

    Cons/StJ – I think hyperinflation is the true Fed goal.  There's no other logical way to shrink the deficit (relative to GDP) than to inflate the GDP faster than the deficit can rise – which is a tough trick under Trump.

    Margin/Options – The puts you don't like on CMG REDUCE the margin required for the short calls because they both can't pay off at the same time.  While it would suck to have 1,000 shares of CMG assigned at $560 – that is $160 (20%) below the current price and below my $600 fair value target and we are -$66,800 on the short June $600 calls, which require $108,751 in margin (ordinary, not portfolio, which is far less) and the 15 short Jan $740s require $188,561 in margin, which is partially offset by the short puts so we're only raising our margin needs by $40,000 and we have about $1.4M (ordinary) available so I don't think it's a stretch nor do I think CMG is worthless so I don't consider the ownership risk to be too extreme – especially as we have $480 calls covered by $540 calls so, if we drop all the way to $560 – the $540 calls are substantially lower while our $480s are still $120,000+ in the money.  I'd actually be pleased if that happens as we could then clear out the short calls and reposition for the next bull run.

    As to TAP, the ordinary margin requirement on 10 short 2021 $47.50 puts is $4,764 according to TOS  so we can have 10 of those positions when we fill the portfolio.   The only difference is, we're going to have lower risk tolerance if they turn against us. 

    Think of it this way, the TAP 2021 $50/60 bull call spread is $9,000 and pays $20,000 if all goes well.  That's a nice $11,000 (122%) gain with no margin in 18 months.  Selling the $47.50 puts for $4,250 cuts half our cash requirement and double the potential return on cash in exchange for $4,764 in margin and, if we stop them out with a $1,000 loss, then we are in the bull call spread for $10,000 AND we recover our margin AND it still pays $20,000 if we come back up so the RISK is reasonable against the potential REWARD if that does not happen. 

    Also it makes it easy to sell 5-10 short calls if TAP spikes and we want to cover – so we have the potential for far more income as the July $55s are $1.40 so even just 5 short of those raises $700 for 30 out of 576 days so 19 sales like that generates another $13,300 towards the assignment you fear and every month we have a successful sale is money to stave off the possible loss on the puts if we dip.  

    In both of the above cases, you can't not make the right adjustments out of fear and, if your margin is so tight that these adjustments quickly get you in trouble, then you need to cut down the amount of trades and lighten up on the short put selling.

    SPWR/Wing – It's all over the place at the moment.  In the LTP, we were NOT covered so the adjustments was easy for us.  In the OOP, we have the $3/7 spread and we are NOT changing it because it's not worth it.  In your case, you have a $5 spread that's currently $5.20/1.55 ($3.65) and 100% in the money so $1.35 (37%) left to gain in 6 months if you just leave it alone.  Unless you make 74% annually with your cash all the time – I'd leave it alone.  If you want the 2021 $7/12 spread – buy 20 of those and keep a stop on the 2020 $5 calls at $4.75 and the puts at 0.75 so you would net out $4 and be left with the 2021 $7/12 spread covering the short 2020 $10 calls that would have to be out of the money if the others stopped out and you would have $3,200 in your pocket and another $10,000 coming if the 2021 spread works out.  

    QUIK/Albo – Very painful to hang onto – I feel your pain…

  11. Speaking of BitCoin – it occured to me that FB's entire Libra project is nothing more than Zuckerberg looking to destroy BitCoin and, more importantly, the Winklevoss Twins.  Of course he hates them as they have tarnished his whole life's work by claiming it was stolen from them so it's not outside the realm of probability that he's looking to crush their main source of credibility (that they made a fortune in BitCoin).  

    Image result for zuckerberg winklevoss cartoon

  12. oil report bonafide bullish

  13. Finally a bullish oil report – back to $54.50 already.  

    • EIA Petroleum Inventories: Crude -3.1M barrels vs. -1.1M consensus, +2.2M last week.
    • Gasoline -1.7M barrels vs. +0.9M consensus, +0.8M last week.
    • Distillates -0.6M barrels vs. +0.7M consensus, -1.0M last week.
    • Futures -0.72% to $53.72.

    /RB $1.74!  /RBU19 $1.685 – I'd take that $1,000 per contract and run and let the UGA be the bigger upside from here.  

  14. Phil;  Thanks for the margin explanation.  I'm still thinking TAP in the Boca portfolio will then hold up $4,764 plus the $9000 your spending on the spread.  That is what it is roughly showing in TOS.  Since it's a $50,000 portfolio, how can you have 10 positions that size?  On the CMG trade, if you think $600 is fair value why spend $47 on the $700/800 spread?  The 600/700 is only $60.  You can answer when you have more time.  I'm just trying to learn not making either of the trades.  Thanks

  15. Long-Term Portfolio (LTP) – Part 2: 

    • F – On track again. 
    • FCX – Could be better but I'm fine with the targets. 
    • FTR – If we close all the short puts and calls it's a net $4,250 loss so why not do that and then we can sell 200 of the 2021 $2 calls for 0.50 ($10,000) and buy 20,000 more shares of FTR for $1.27 ($25,400) so, for net $15,400 we're doubling down and dropping our cost basis from $4 to $2.64 on a 1/2 covered 40,000 shares.  If they don't go BK, this could be amazing.  

    By the way, these are the kind of decisions we make in a BALANCED portfolio that is NOT losing money.  Although we lost $60,000 on FTR, we made it up on other positions and it's very unlikely FTR gets back to $4 so, by adding $15,000 – we end up with a much better chance of recovering $75,000 than we had of recovering $60,000 – that's the logic here.  

    • GILD – In the money already.  Too early to cover.  
    • GIS – On track.
    • GNC – Let's buy back the short 2021 $2.50 calls at 0.30 if we can ($1,500) and we'll wait for a pop to sell more

    • GOLD – Back to lovin' it.
    • GPRO – Lost ground since last month but I still like them.  
    • GS – On track at net $28,612 out of a possible $50,000 if they go up $2.22 from here in 18 months.  Still good for a new trade if you like making 75% in 18 months but I know that's boring for you guys..
    • HBI – On track.
    • IBM – On track.  
    • IMAX – Back in the bottom of the channel due to China exposure so let's buy back the 40 short Jan $28 calls at 0.35 ($1,400) and the 20 Sept $24 calls at 0.35 ($700) and let's roll our 40 Jan $22 calls at $1.60 ($6,400) to 40 Jan $19 calls at $3 ($12,000) and then we'll wait for a bounce back to $23 to re-cover.  

    IP – On track.  

    • KHC – We are waiting for a bounce to sell covers.  
    • LB – We are waiting for a bounce to sell covers.  
    • LMT – New trade.
    • M - We are waiting for a bounce to sell covers.
    • MJ – On track
    • Mo – On track. 
    • MT – On track.
    • MU – We're going to take advantage of the big pullback to buy back the short callers, both the Jan $55s with a $4,445 profit and the 2021 $55s with a $16,820 profit and then we will wait for a bounce to sell covers – see how that happens?

    • NLY – About to pay another 0.30 dividend next week.  If we get assigned, we'll have 5,000 shares at net $9.45, not including short calls we bought back or the dividends we've collected and the stock is now $9.08 so, despite being 10% lower than our entry, all is well.
    • NYCB – Same deal as NLY, no worries.
    • RH – Brand new and doing awesome!  

    • SKX – Over our target at net $8,925 out of a potential $12,000 so $3,075 (34%) left to gain in just 6 months – no reason to get out of this.  For most sites, this would be their trade of the year!  

    SPWR – There's no emergency so get your prices but, as noted yesterday:  

    • Buy (to close) 20 short Jan $7 puts for 0.49 ($980)
    • Sell (to close) 50 2021 $5 calls for $5.75 ($28,750) should be a bit higher tomorrow)
    • Buy 80 2021 $7 calls for $4.25 ($34,000) 
    • Sell 80 2021 $12 calls for $1.85 ($14,800) 
    • Sell 20 2021 $10 puts for $2.75 ($5,500) 

    So we cash net $27,770 and we buy a new $40,000 spread for net $13,700 so we've taken half the profits off the table and mildly increased our risk of ownership (by $6,000) so we can net another $26,300 out of this spread from here WITH extra money in our pockets – all playing with house money now!

    • STMP – Winning on one of our new ones just because the internal VIX calmed down.  
    • STT -Getting killed on these.  Just have to wait and see.
    • T – On track.
    • TGT – Over our goal but just net $22,425 out of a potential $43,750 so $21,325 left to gain if TGT can hold $82.50 for 18 months.  Good for a new trade, I'd say.  Still, earnings are not until late Aug so let's sell 10 July $85 calls for $2.95 ($2,950) to lock in some of the gains.  

    • THC - We are waiting for a bounce to sell covers
    • UCTT – Well over our target but only net $2,150 out of a potential $10,000 so fantastic for a new trade (only 6 months to go) as the premiums on these options are high.  Of course, at $15, we "only" get net $5,000 as we'd owe the short putter money but we can roll them.
    • WBA – I think these guys are so amazingly undervalued so good for a new trade.  

    • WHR – Deep in the money and overpriced so let's sell 5 (1/3) of the Sept $140 calls for $10 ($5,000) to line our pockets.  The longs have $22,000 left to gain above $130.
    • WPM – Well over our target with about $10,000 (37%) left to gain.  In this case, the short calls don't pay enough for me to want to sell them so we'll just have to wait patiently for the premiums to die.  

    We got though that without too many changes – pretty good.  

  16. QUIK – Trading 20% above the offering price.  Unusual and a good sign, IMHO.

  17. TAP/Options – It's taking $25% of the buying power (worst case) for a spread that will make $15,400, which is 30% of the entire portfolio if it goes well.  So yes, it will be a large position but it's a good, solid position to anchor the portfolio with, the other trades are likely to be smaller but this was an opportunity to set up a trade that has a high probability of giving us a 20% annual rate of return by itself with TAP trading at the lowest it's been since 2014 when they had 60% less Revenues and 60% less Profits.  What trade would you rather put money into?  

    Year End 31st Dec 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 TTM 2019E 2020E CAGR / Avg
    Revenue $m 4,206 4,146 3,568 4,885 11,003 10,770 10,741 10,694 10,694 +20.7%
    Operating Profit $m 805.7 726.5 567.2 3,323 1,678 1,632 1,424     +15.2%
    Net Profit $m 567.3 514 395.2 1,594 1,566 1,117 989.8 1,012 1,032 +14.5%
    EPS Reported $ 3.07 2.76 2.10 7.47 4.61 5.15 4.57     +10.9%
    EPS Normalised $ 3.69 4.80 3.77 1.26 5.16 3.51 4.32 4.67 4.80 -1.0%
    EPS Growth % +29.1 +30.1 -21.5 -66.6 +309.9 -32.0 -1.6 +33.1 +2.87  
    PE Ratio x           15.4 12.5 11.6 11.3  
    PEG x           0.47 0.38 4.04 2.64

    As to CMG, I thought $600 would be a fair BOTTOM so I'm confident it will hold.  $750 is a fair top and the main purpose of the $700/800 spread is to cover the short calls – not to make money on that spread so the less I spend on a hedge, the better.  We took our MASSIVE CMG long profits off the table ages ago and, since then, the rest of the position has been about dealing with the leftover short calls.  

  18. SHOP – This stock is incredible.  Will be a good short some time if momentum/sentiment (ever) turns. Up 168% in 6 months and trades at 527x forward earnings and a price/sales of over 17.    

  19. Well, I have to run to the airport – I'll try to check in from there.

  20. Looking at all this data, it's hard to justify current valuation – no one is going gagnbuster at the moment!

  21. And it's out:

    Information received since the Federal Open Market Committee met in May indicates that the labor market remains strong and that economic activity is rising at a moderate rate. Job gains have been solid, on average, in recent months, and the unemployment rate has remained low. Although growth of household spending appears to have picked up from earlier in the year, indicators of business fixed investment have been soft. On a 12-month basis, overall inflation and inflation for items other than food and energy are running below 2 percent. Market-based measures of inflation compensation have declined; survey-based measures of longer-term inflation expectations are little changed.

    Consistent with its statutory mandate, the Committee seeks to foster maximum employment and price stability. In support of these goals, the Committee decided to maintain the target range for the federal funds rate at 2-1/4 to 2-1/2 percent. The Committee continues to view sustained expansion of economic activity, strong labor market conditions, and inflation near the Committee's symmetric 2 percent objective as the most likely outcomes, but uncertainties about this outlook have increased. In light of these uncertainties and muted inflation pressures, the Committee will closely monitor the implications of incoming information for the economic outlook and will act as appropriate to sustain the expansion, with a strong labor market and inflation near its symmetric 2 percent objective.

    In determining the timing and size of future adjustments to the target range for the federal funds rate, the Committee will assess realized and expected economic conditions relative to its maximum employment objective and its symmetric 2 percent inflation objective. This assessment will take into account a wide range of information, including measures of labor market conditions, indicators of inflation pressures and inflation expectations, and readings on financial and international developments.

    Voting for the monetary policy action were Jerome H. Powell, Chair; John C. Williams, Vice Chair; Michelle W. Bowman; Lael Brainard; Richard H. Clarida; Charles L. Evans; Esther L. George; Randal K. Quarles; and Eric S. Rosengren. Voting against the action was James Bullard, who preferred at this meeting to lower the target range for the federal funds rate by 25 basis points.

    So just Bullard preferred to lower now and otherwise things stay the same BUT, on the whole, they see less inflation and make a clear statement they stand ready to act so not bearish for the market really but maybe a disappointment nonetheless no one but Bullard was willing to cut.

    RUT still 1,555 watch it to lead us down IF we're heading lower.  /YM hovering just over our shorting line at 26,500.

    Changes since last meeting:

    Weaker Dollar holding the indexes up at the moment – keep an eye on that!  I still like /YM short if it crosses under 26,500.

  22. Gold may finally breaking out.

  23. 2 biggest countries doing the best on StJ’s chart (US and China) are also the two most likely to be faking data.   

  24. Scientists chart course toward a new world of synthetic biology

  25. Trump EPA rolls back Obama rule on coal-fired power plants

  26. Data / Phil – Even if the data was correct which is questionable for China at least, the world is growing at less than 2%. The EU, the second largest economy is growing at 1.2%.  And looking at retail sales and industrial production, there is nothing great there either. These are not numbers we would associate with new market highs – it looks more like early signs of a possible global recession.

  27. And this chart says a lot about Europe – Manufacturing PMI:

  28.  Well, I see the spiked up at the close –  just have to lay back and enjoy it, I guess…

  29. Gold breaking out indeed !