We've got high hopes!
Whatever problems the World has, we like to think our leaders are going to solve them and there is often a lot of faith put into these G20 meetings and, while it is great that our leaders get together and talk once in a while – it's really no different than any executive retreat – not a whole lot actually gets done – it's mostly an all-expense paid week off for 20 of the most powerful people in the World.
They do get together and issue a "communique" but already at this meeting France is insisting that the G20 make a firm statement on Climate Change and re-commit to the Paris Accords, which is something they have all done except Trump so it's really aimed at just him. Japan wants the communique to promote free trade and again, this is all about Donald Trump and trying to get him to agree with the other 19 World Leaders.
We always have high hopes into these meetings but I'll remind you that the last G20 Meeting was in Buenos Aires on December 1st of last year and that was a Saturday and on December 3rd the Dow topped out at 26,000 and by Christmas Eve (24th) we were below 22,000 – a 4,000 point correction after the G20 Meeting – so forgive me if I'm just a little sceptical as we head into another one pressing new market highs (26,650).
At the December Summit, the agenda was to discuss the Future of Work (as more and more people are being replaced by robots), Infrastructure and Sustainable Food along with the need for Crypto-Currency Regulation and resolving the Trade Wars. In fact, the US, Canada and Mexico sight NAFTA – oh, excuse me, the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement, which is not just NAFTA again – and even that still hasn't been ratified 6 months later.
While the other 19 nations at the last Summit recommitted tot he Paris Climate Accord, saying it was "irreversible and committing to its full implementaion" they also aknowledged that the United States withdrew from the Agreement, so I imagine when France says they wants a statement on Climate – I assume they mean from the 19 rational countries because good luck changing Trump's mind on that one!
As noted yesterday, we've prepared our portfolios for a correction, getting more aggressive with our hedges so we can enjoy the ride down. Today's PMI Report for June came in at 49.7 – that's contracting and a sharp fall from May's 54.2 and, of course, completely unexpected by the leading Economorons, who predicted 53.6. This is when we have corrections – when the experts have it wrong and are proven so by the data.
Maybe Trump and Company will pull a rabbit out of their hat at the weekend conference – but I'm not going to bet on it!
Have a good weekend,
– Phil
