Archive for 2019

Morgan Stanley Upgrades Kraft Heinz, Boosts Stock

Courtesy of Benzinga.

Morgan Stanley Upgrades Kraft Heinz, Boosts Stock

Morgan Stanley’s multiple concerns reflected in a bearish stance on food company Kraft Heinz Co (NYSE: KHC) is now fully priced into the stock after a 53-percent loss in value over the past year.

The Analyst

Morgan Stanley’s Dara Mohsenian upgraded Kraft Heinz from Underweight to Equal-weight with an unchanged $35 price target.

The Thesis

Kraft Heinz’s stock has been hit by a series of negative earnings revisions culminating with the Street’s fiscal 2019 and 2020 EBITDA estimates falling by around 31 percent, Mohsenian said in the upgrade note.

Exiting the company’s most recent earnings report, there are four reasons to believe EBITDA can stabilize:

  • Management’s non-key commodity inflation net of cost savings guidance appears conservative:
  • The company could see topline and commercial profit growth from $500 million in commercial investment in 2018 and 2019;
  • Expectations for positive organic sales growth and more favorable pricing; and
  • Foreign exchange guidance looks conservative.

The research firm’s reverse discounted cash flow model suggests the Street is assuming Kraft Heinz will show zero long-term EBITDA growth after management’s revision to fiscal 2019. The analyst said the company should be able to show a 0.3 percent long-term growth rate through fiscal 2025

Price Action

Shares of Kraft Heinz were trading higher by 2.1 percent at $33.09 Monday morning.

Related Links:

Warren Buffett, Other Kraft Heinz Institutional Investors Left With Mustard On Their Shirts

Kraft Heinz No Longer A Buy At Deutsche Bank

Latest Ratings for KHC

Date Firm Action From To
Mar 2019 Morgan Stanley Upgrades Underweight Equal-Weight
Feb 2019 Argus Downgrades Buy Hold
Feb 2019 BMO Capital Maintains Market Perform Market Perform

View More Analyst Ratings for KHC

View the Latest Analyst Ratings

Posted-In: Dara Mohsenian food Food CompanyAnalyst Color Long Ideas Upgrades Analyst Ratings Trading Ideas Best of Benzinga

A Peek Into The Markets: US Stock Futures Signal Higher Start On Wall Street

Courtesy of Benzinga.

A Peek Into The Markets: US Stock Futures Signal Higher Start On Wall Street

Pre-open movers

U.S. stock futures traded higher in early pre-market trade. Data on motor vehicle sales for February will be released today. Data on construction spending for December will be released at 10:00 a.m. ET.

Futures for the Dow Jones Industrial Average jumped 70 points to 26,105.00, while the Standard & Poor’s 500 index futures rose 7.5 points to 2,812.50. Futures for the Nasdaq 100 index gained 31.5 points to 7,188.75.

Oil prices traded higher as Brent crude futures rose 0.9 percent to trade at $65.62 per barrel, while US WTI crude futures rose 0.6 percent to trade at $56.11 a barrel.

A Peek Into Global Markets

European markets were higher today, with the Spanish Ibex Index rising 0.1 percent, STOXX Europe 600 Index climbing 0.4 percent and German DAX 30 index gained 0.2 percent. The UK’s FTSE index was trading higher by 0.7 percent, while French CAC 40 Index climbed 0.6 percent.

In Asian markets, Japan’s Nikkei Stock Average rose 1.02 percent, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index climbed 0.51 percent, China’s Shanghai Composite Index surged 1.12 percent and India’s BSE Sensex rose 0.55 percent.

Broker Recommendation

Analysts at Pivotal Research upgraded Foot Locker, Inc. (NYSE: FL) from Hold to Buy and raises the price target from $64 to $73.

Foot Locker shares rose 5.96 percent to close at $63.07 on Friday.

Breaking News

  • Nightstar Therapeutics PLC (NASDAQ: NITE) agreed to be acquired by Biogen Inc (NASDAQ: BIIB) for $25.50 per share in cash.
  • Arthur J. Gallagher & Co. (NYSE: AJG) announced plans to acquire Jardine Lloyd Thompson Group’s global aerospace operations.
  • Office Depot, Inc. (NASDAQ: ODP) and Alibaba Group Holding Limited (NYSE: BABA) announced a collaboration to sell B2B e-commerce online.
  • Tonix Pharmaceuticals Holding Corp (NASDAQ: TNXP) reported a buyback of up to $2 million.

Posted-In: A Peek Into The Markets US Stock FuturesNews Eurozone Futures Global Pre-Market Outlook Markets

Guggenheim Downgrades Worldpay After Strong Rally

Courtesy of Benzinga.

Guggenheim Downgrades Worldpay After Strong Rally

Shares of Worldpay Inc (NYSE: WP) have appreciated around 28 percent since the beginning of the year versus an 11-percent increase in S&P.

The good news related to results and projections are now reflected in the share price, according to Guggenheim.

The Analyst

Guggenheim’s Jeff Cantwell downgraded Worldpay from Buy to Neutral.

The Thesis

Regardless of how Brexit pans out, Worldpay is likely to witness growth headwinds in the UK in the back half of 2019 and beyond, Cantwell said in a Monday note. 

Some appreciation is expected in the shares of high-quality payment companies, the analyst said. Yet the rally since the beginning of 2019 has come as a surprise, he said. 

While many of the stocks are trading at a premium valuation, their performance in 2019 is unlikely to be as strong as in the previous year, Cantwell said. 

Payments companies are likely to face a meaningful slowdown in growth in Europe, in the analyst’s view. Worldpay generates around 20 percent of its total net revenue in the UK, and Brexit-related woes could affect revenue growth over the next few quarters, he said. 

The company’s guidance reflects a stable UK economy in 2019, which is likely to hold true, Cantwell said. 

Guggenheim reduced its EPS estimates for 2019 and 2020 from $4.65 to $4.60 and from $5.48 to $5.40, respectively, to reflect UK growth headwinds.

Price Action

Worldpay shares were down 0.42 percent at $97.31 at the time of publication Monday. 

Related Links:

Guggenheim’s Positive Outlook For Payments Stocks: ‘We Expect Strong Results’ 

Payments Earnings Preview: Square, Global Payments, Worldpay Are ‘High-Conviction’ Names

Latest Ratings for WP

Date Firm Action From To
Mar 2019 Guggenheim Downgrades Buy Neutral
Feb 2019 Deutsche Bank Maintains Buy Buy
Feb 2019 BMO Capital Maintains Outperform Outperform

View More Analyst Ratings for WP

View the Latest Analyst Ratings

Posted-In: Guggenheim Jeff Cantwell paymentsAnalyst Color Short Ideas Downgrades Analyst Ratings Trading Ideas Best of Benzinga

Weekly Market Recap Mar 3, 2019

Courtesy of Blain.

A quiet week for the market, which is exactly what the bulls want – low volatility and little in the way of pullbacks as the indexes consolidate a few months of big gains.  Monday thru Thursday saw very little movement, and the week ended with a moderate rally Friday.  Powell testified to Congress and essentially whispered “patience” repeatedly and away we go – we’ve been in “Fed is on our side” mode for a few months now.

The housing market continues to slow:

The number of new homes under construction fell in December to an annual rate of 1.08 million, from 1.21 million rate in November, the Commerce Department said. That is the lowest level since 2016.

Pending home sales jumped 4.6% to a reading of 103.2 in January, the National Association of Realtors said. Sales were 2.3% lower than a year ago, making January the 13th straight month of year-over-year declines.

Looking back at GDP:

The Commerce Department’s estimate of fourth-quarter GDP growth showed the U.S. economy growing at a rate of 2.6%, well above consensus expectations of 1.9%, per a MarketWatch poll of economists. GDP grew at 2.9% during 2018, according to the preliminary estimates by the Commerce Department, representing the best growth in three years. However, market participants highlighted the economic reports highlight expansion that is tapering from heady levels of a 4.2% growth rate in the second quarter of 2018.

ISM Manufacturing fell to 54.2 vs expectations of 55.5.  That is still expansionary as it is over 50.

For the week, the S&P 500 gained 0.4% and the NASDAQ added 0.9%.

I would say the trade deal with China is happening based on the front running happening in the Chinese market which was hurt much worse than the U.S. ever was.

Here is the 5 day weekly “intraday” chart of the S&P 500 … via Jill Mislinski.

The week ahead…

Fun info – since “patience” the S&P 500 has rallied >20% and the NASDAQ >25%.…
continue reading

At Least 14 Dead As Freak Tornadoes Hit Georgia, Alabama; 35,000 Without Power

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Update: The death toll has risen to 14


t least two large and destructive tornadoes swept through parts of Georgia and Lee County, Alabama, killing at least ten people and leaving more than 35,000 without power as temperatures are expected to dip into the 30s. 

According to WSFA 12 there are at least 10 fatalities. 


Buck Wild Saloon, Lee County (Photo from David McBride via James Spann)

Morgan Stanley: Q1 Will Mark The Trough Of This Mini-Cycle… And Central Banks May Resume Tightening

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

One month ago, Morgan Stanley whose chief US equity strategist Michael Wilson had long been one of the biggest bears on Wall Street, said that the US is headed for an earnings recession not just in Q1 2019, but perhaps for the entire year, as consensus earnings estimates for 2019 were just too high. And, in a concession to Morgan Stanley's more bullish clients, Wilson cut his full year EPS forecast for 2019 from 4.3% to a token 1.0%, just barely above calling the entire year a wash from an earnings perspective (although he did bump up his PE multiple assumptions).

And while Wilson was ahead of the curve in calling roa recession, it now appears that Morgan Stanley may also be calling the inflection point, when in its Sunday Start note, the bank's chief economist and global head of economics, Chetan Ahya, wrote that he is increasingly "inclined to believe that our house forecast of growth bottoming out in 1Q19, aided by a recovery in growth outside the US, is coming to fruition" as a result of easing on three key fronts:

  • Trade tensions easing,
  • China’s monetary easing starting to work,
  • and the Fed’s flexibility and patience, leading to easing in global financial conditions, all support our view that 1Q19 will mark the trough in this mini-cycle.

To Ahya, this "easing trio is helping to reverse the global economy’s downward trajectory" and explained:

For starters, the Fed began to signal flexibility on its policy rate path and acknowledged the market’s concerns about its balance sheet normalisation plans. Second, trade tensions eased, as the spectre of further tariffs gave way to trade talks. Finally, the step-up in China’s easing and the latest confirmation that broad credit growth picked up in January (a sign that easing is filtering through) has helped to rekindle optimism about China’s growth outlook.

Of course, none of this is news to the markets which have staged a memorable recovery from the December lows, recovering most of the post-Sept all time high losses, as the S&P is once again back over 2,800. However, as Morgan Stanley…
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Home-Flipping Profits Tumbled To 7 Year Low As Mortgage Rates Spiked

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

This certainly doesn't bode well for US home sales.


According to a survey by Attom Data Solutions year-end home flipping report, the number of homes bought and sold for a quick profit declined last year as the number of homes flipped for profit declined by 4% from 2017 as profits from housing-market speculation fell to their lowest level in seven years. By Attom's calculations, flipped homes comprised 5.6% of all home sales, which was unchanged from 2017.


Attom attributed to the decline to the rise in mortgage rates, which has prompted millions of Americans to stay in their homes longer.

The 207,957 homes flipped in 2018 represented 5.6 percent of all single-family home and condo sales during the year, stagnant from 5.6 percent of all sales in 2017 but up from 5.1 percent of all sales back in 2008.

A total of 146,020 entities (individuals and institutions) flipped homes in 2018, down .4 percent from the 146,623 entities that flipped in 2017 but up 63.1 percent from 89,539 entities that flipped 10-years ago.

"With mortgage rates remaining strong and people staying in their homes longer, we have started to see a bit of a flipping rate slowdown," said Todd Teta, chief product officer at ATTOM Data Solutions.

"However, this isn’t to say home flipping is going away. The market is still ripe with investors flipping and bargains still await, especially in the lowest-priced areas of the country, where levels of financial distress remain highest."

Meanwhile, in a sign that millennials' inability to afford homes could be weighing on the speculative market, the share of homes flipped to FHA-loan borrows has declined to an 11-year low.

Of the homes flipped in 2018, 13.8 percent were sold to FHA borrowers – likely first-time homebuyers – down from 17 percent in 2017 to an 11-year low.

Among 53 metro areas analyzed in the report with at least 1 million people, those with the smallest share of completed flips sold to FHA buyers in 2018 were San Jose, California (1.3 percent); Raleigh, North Carolina

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US Futures Spike At Open After More Positive US-China Trade Headlines

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

It appears the goldfish-memory-like algos are unaware that the same headlines have spiked futures numerous times in the last week or two, but nevertheless, positive headlines about a US-China trade deal have sent US equity futures surging at the open…

Nasdaq is leading the charge…

Pushing above Friday’s opening highs…

Extending its rise above the 200DMA…

Yuan is also stronger at the open…

We are sure that once President Trump tweets it, the algos will buy again too.

Why Goldman Thinks The “Goldilocks” Rally Is About To End

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

With the latest positive report out of the US-China trade rumormill set to push futures solidly higher once they reopen on Sunday night, coupled with a breakout in 10Y yields from the recent descending triangle…

… as a result of growing speculation that the global macroeconomic headwinds have finally troughed following a handful of strong econ data releases including a higher than expected US Q4 GDP print and a strong rebound in China’s Caixin PMI, largely thanks to a gargantuan credit injection by China’s central bank, which has helped stabilize Chinese assets…

… and sparking a global reflationary impulse, the Fed may soon be trapped once again, as it was two months ago, only for the opposite reasons.

And as reflation rears its ugly head, denting the Fed’s plans to keep rate hikes on “pause” indefinitely and perhaps scuttling plans to prematurely end the Fed’s balance sheet runoff, traders may find out that just as markets did an overnight U-turn as “bad news was good news”, for the past two months as the “Goldilocks trade” made a return appearance, suddenly “good news may be bad news” as the Fed finds itself behind the curve once more, as the big market bears end up mauling Goldilocks.

That’s the point made by Goldman’s Christian Mueller-Glissman, who warns in a late Friday note he expects the “Goldilocks rally” to fade and bond yields to increase (even more) from here. His argument is simple: there is now a material disconnect between Fed pricing and the S&P 500. As he notes in teh chart below – one which we have shown repeatedly in the past, not only are markets pricing no hikes in the next 12 months, but they are pricing a cut in the next 2 years.

To Goldman, this seems inconsistent with the bullish message from risky assets and from the recent reflationary impulse and macro-economic trough. And even as Goldman economists expect 1 hike by the end of 2019 (which while contrary to the market’s dovish take is a far cry from the bank’s “4 hikes” call as recently as December, the bank notes that its US Financial Conditions Index (FCI) is back to levels from before the dovish Fed shift. In short: a pick-up in US inflation could drive concerns…
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Here We Go Again: US, China “In Final Stages Of Completing Trade Deal”

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

It's deja vu all over again.

One week after Trump "surprised" markets and algos tweeting at 5:39pm on Sunday, Feb 24, just 21 minutes before futures opened for trading, that he would be "delaying the U.S. increase in tariffs now scheduled for March 1"…

… which predictably spiked S&P futures and set the "optimistic" tone for a US-China trade deal which in turn helped push the S&P above 2,800 before said optimism fizzled by the latter part of the week as the "quadruple top" once again proved too much of a resistance level for US equities, the WSJ reported on Sunday afternoon that - once again – the US and China are "are in the final stage of completing a trade deal, with Beijing offering to lower tariffs and other restrictions on American farm, chemical, auto and other products and Washington considering removing most, if not all, sanctions levied against Chinese products since last year."

According to the detailed report, which suggests it was leaked on purposes by someone high up in the administration with the clear purpose of once again pushing equities higher, the agreement is taking shape "following February’s talks in Washington" even as the WSJ's sources "cautioned that hurdles remain, and each side faces possible resistance at home that the terms are too favorable to the other side."

Even so, and despite the remaining hurdles, with Trump now clearly eager to put the trade war behind him in hopes of pushing stocks to new all time highs despite USTR Lighthizer's ongoing reservations for a quick and easy deal (as he explained last Wednesday before Congress), the WSJ notes that "talks have progressed to the extent that a formal agreement could be reached at a summit between President Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping, probably around March 27, after Mr. Xi finishes a trip to Italy…
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Zero Hedge

Trash Wars: Duterte Orders Tons Of Garbage Shipped Back To Canada Or Dumped In Territorial Waters

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Outspoken Philippines President Rodrigo Duterte has ordered that containers carrying trash from Canada should be shipped back to the country. It is the latest chapter in a disagreement over more than 100 containers of trash that were shipped to the Philippines between 2013 and 2014, illegally, by a Canadian company. 

Canada had previously agreed to take the trash back, but has been slow in making arrangements for its return. Duterte threatened to leave the trash in Canadian waters if Ottawa refuses to take it back, according to Salvador Panelo...

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Phil's Favorites

Animal Spirits: The Absence of Stuff


Animal Spirits: The Absence of Stuff

Courtesy of 

Mention Animal Spirits to receive 20% off from YCharts (*New YCharts users only)

Stories Discussed

Best graduation ever


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Kimble Charting Solutions

DAX (Germany) About To Send A Bearish Message To The S&P 500?

Courtesy of Chris Kimble.

Is the DAX index from Germany about to send a bearish message to stocks in Europe and the States? Sure could!

This chart looks at the DAX over the past 9-years. It’s spent the majority of the past 8-years inside of rising channel (1), creating a series of higher lows and higher highs.

It looks to have created a “Double Top” as it was kissing the underside of the rising channel last year at (2).

After creating the potential double top, the DAX index has continued to create a series of lower highs, while experiencing a bearish divergence with the S...

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Chart School

Brexit Joke - Cant be serious all the time

Courtesy of Read the Ticker.

Alistair Williams comedian nails it, thank god for good humour! Prime Minister May the negotiator. Not!

Alistair Williams Comedian youtube

This is a classic! ha!

Fundamentals are important, and so is market timing, here at we believe a combination of Gann Angles, ...

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Insider Scoop

55 Biggest Movers From Yesterday

Courtesy of Benzinga.

  • Obalon Therapeutics, Inc. (NASDAQ: OBLN) shares jumped 233.3 percent to close at $1.30 on Wednesday after the company reported expanded data from a large scale commercial use study that was presented at the Digestive Disease Week.
  • Ascent Capital Group, Inc. (NASDAQ: ASCMA) shares jumped 51.4 percent to close at $1.37 after the company announced a restructuring support agreement with Monitronics International.
  • Valeritas Holdings, Inc. (NASDAQ: VLRX) shares dippe... more from Insider

Digital Currencies

Cryptocurrencies are finally going mainstream - the battle is on to bring them under global control


Cryptocurrencies are finally going mainstream – the battle is on to bring them under global control

The high seas are getting lower. dianemeise

Courtesy of Iwa Salami, University of East London

The 21st-century revolutionaries who have dominated cryptocurrencies are having to move over. Mainstream financial institutions are adopting these assets and the blockchain technology that enables them, in what ...

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DNA as you've never seen it before, thanks to a new nanotechnology imaging method

Reminder: We are available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.


DNA as you've never seen it before, thanks to a new nanotechnology imaging method

A map of DNA with the double helix colored blue, the landmarks in green, and the start points for copying the molecule in red. David Gilbert/Kyle Klein, CC BY-ND

Courtesy of David M. Gilbert, Florida State University


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More Examples Of "Typical Tesla "wise-guy scamminess"

By Jacob Wolinsky. Originally published at ValueWalk.

Stanphyl Capital’s letter to investors for the month of March 2019.

rawpixel / Pixabay

Friends and Fellow Investors:

For March 2019 the fund was up approximately 5.5% net of all fees and expenses. By way of comparison, the S&P 500 was up approximately 1.9% while the Russell 2000 was down approximately 2.1%. Year-to-date 2019 the fund is up approximately 12.8% while the S&P 500 is up approximately 13.6% and the ...

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Members' Corner

Despacito - How to Make Money the Old-Fashioned Way - SLOWLY!

Are you ready to retire?  

For most people, the purpose of investing is to build up enough wealth to allow you to retire.  In general, that's usually enough money to reliably generate a year's worth of your average income, each year into your retirement so that that, plus you Social Security, should be enough to pay your bills without having to draw down on your principle.

Unfortunately, as the last decade has shown us, we can't count on bonds to pay us more than 3% and the average return from the stock market over the past 20 years has been erratic - to say the least - with 4 negative years (2000, 2001, 2002 and 2008) and 14 positives, though mostly in the 10% range on the positives.  A string of losses like we had from 2000-02 could easily wipe out a decades worth of gains.

Still, the stock market has been better over the last 10 (7%) an...

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Mapping The Market

It's Not Capitalism, it's Crony Capitalism

A good start from :

It's Not Capitalism, it's Crony Capitalism


The threat to America is this: we have abandoned our core philosophy. Our first principle of this nation as a meritocracy, a free-market economy, where competition drives economic decision-making. In its place, we have allowed a malignancy to fester, a virulent pus-filled bastardized form of economics so corrosive in nature, so dangerously pestilent, that it presents an extinction-level threat to America – both the actual nation and the “idea” of America.

This all-encompassing mutant corruption saps men’s souls, crushes opportunities, and destroys economic mobility. Its a Smash & Grab system of ill-gotten re...

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Swing trading portfolio - week of September 11th, 2017

Reminder: OpTrader is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.


This post is for all our live virtual trade ideas and daily comments. Please click on "comments" below to follow our live discussion. All of our current  trades are listed in the spreadsheet below, with entry price (1/2 in and All in), and exit prices (1/3 out, 2/3 out, and All out).

We also indicate our stop, which is most of the time the "5 day moving average". All trades, unless indicated, are front-month ATM options. 

Please feel free to participate in the discussion and ask any questions you might have about this virtual portfolio, by clicking on the "comments" link right below.

To learn more about the swing trading virtual portfolio (strategy, performance, FAQ, etc.), please click here ...

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Free eBook - "My Top Strategies for 2017"



Here's a free ebook for you to check out! 

Phil has a chapter in a newly-released eBook that we think you’ll enjoy.

In My Top Strategies for 2017, Phil's chapter is Secret Santa’s Inflation Hedges for 2017.

This chapter isn’t about risk or leverage. Phil present a few smart, practical ideas you can use as a hedge against inflation as well as hedging strategies designed to assist you in staying ahead of the markets.

Some other great content in this free eBook includes:


·       How 2017 Will Affect Oil, the US Dollar and the European Union


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About Phil:

Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

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About Ilene:

Ilene is editor and affiliate program coordinator for PSW. She manages the site market shadows, archives, more. Contact Ilene to learn about our affiliate and content sharing programs.

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