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Webinar Wednesday – Guest-Starring Bill Olsen of NewsWare

Let's talk Fundamentals.

Our guest today in our 1pm (EST) Live Trading Webinar will be Bill Olsen of Newsware and he's going to show us lots of tricks to get the most out of his platform, which is better than a Bloomberg Terminal for bringing you the headlines before they become headlines.  While I'm mostly a Fundamental, Long-Term Trader, who doesn't like to get a jump on a quick trade because you know something that's not generally known yet?  

As Gordon Gekko said in "Wall Street": "I don't throw darts at a board, I bet on sure things."  Information is power and we're living in the information age but, unfortunately, like everything else, you have to learn to read and filter the news and, while Bill has many pre-set filters you are going to love – you are still going to have to put your 10,000 hours in if you want to get your Gekko on.

Just this morning, for example, the following alert popped up at 6:14:

Ant Said to Reach Agreement with Regulators on Overhaul – Bloomberg
(Street Insider 02/03 06:14:06)

Perhaps that headline by itself isn't helpful but we know that Jack Ma has been out of favor with the Chinese Government and that AliBaba's (BABA) stock price has suffered because of it.  We also know Amazon (AMZN) just knocked it out of the park on earnings so BABA should also do well and that means we BUYBUYBUYU on that news.

BABA is already up $10 pre-market at $264 but that's down from $319 in October and the best way to play it is to say we WOULD like to own it for $200, so we can sell 5 2023 $200 puts for $33 (perhaps $30 if we open higher, so call it a $15,000 credit) and then we can buy 15 of the 2023 $250 ($70)/300 ($50) bull call spreads for net $20 ($30,000) in our Long-Term Portfolio (LTP) and that's net $15,000 on the $75,000 spread so there's $60,000 (400%) of upside potential at $300 and, as our Members know, we can look forward to selling short calls like (but NOT YET) 5 March $290s for $5 to collect $2,500 using 44 of the 716 days we have to play.

If we pay net $15,000 for the spread, we only have to sell $2,500 worth of premium every 100 days to more than pay for the whole thing and then we have a free 2023 $250/300 bull call spread on BABA.  Our downside risk is being assigned 500 shares of BABA at net $200 ($100,000) but, fortunately, we already have an FXP spread in our Short-Term Portfolio so we already have a downside hedge on the Chinese market.  That coupled with the fact that we recover our investment making just 1/3 sales against our long position makes me REALLY like this trade idea!  You know who else is liking my trade idea?  Analysts – who are running in like sheep to upgrade BABA this morning – also very easy to find on NewsWatch (part of NewsWare):

INFORMATION – That is how we trade.  We don't need to follow the sheep who run into momentum stocks on Reddit boards.  We can make good money (400% is good money, right?) by simply using the proper tools (which we PRACTICE using until we are experts) and putting in the real work it takes to consistently make money in the market.  

We are, for example, short Chipotle (CMG) in our Short-Term Portfolio as we bought the $180,000 short spread for net $25,017, so plenty of upside and we think CMG won't hold up in a bad market and that it's so over-priced, it won't hold up in a good one either.  Last night they did indeed have disappointing earnings but the analysts have been running in to support it so far but it only takes one small boy to point and shout that the Emperor has no clothes and suddenly opinions can change.

Our target for CMG in Jan of 2022 is below $1,100 and you can currently buy that $180,000 spread for a net $725 credit.  That means we're currently down $25,742 but it's a hedge – we expect to lose money when the markets are strong.  Like the BABA play above, we're making short-term money selling short-term calls and our March calls should be looking good this morning as CMG tumbles back to $1,485:

CMG Long Put 2022 21-JAN 1,400.00 PUT [CMG @ $1,523.05 $0.00] 6 12/17/2020 (352) $124,542 $207.57 $-43.57 $192.40     $164.00 $0.00 $-26,142 -21.0% $98,400
CMG Short Put 2022 21-JAN 1,100.00 PUT [CMG @ $1,523.05 $0.00] -3 10/28/2020 (352) $-39,525 $131.75 $-66.25     $65.50 $0.00 $19,875 50.3% $-19,650
CMG Short Call 2021 19-MAR 1,400.00 CALL [CMG @ $1,523.05 $0.00] -5 1/14/2021 (44) $-60,000 $120.00 $38.95     $158.95 $0.00 $-19,475 -32.5% $-79,475

Chipotle's earnings were $3.48/share vs $3.72 expected and that's finished them at $10.72 for the year but that's $10.75 per $1,500 share – that's a p/e ratio of 140 times earnings – that is RIDICULOUS!  They sell burritos people, not Teslas!!!   And this is not a new business, CMG spun out of MCD in 2006 and CMG has 2,700 locations in the US and Europe while Big Daddy, MCD only gets a p/e of 33 yet MCD made $6.05 per $210 share this year – only about 50% less than CMG yet CMG is valued 5 TIMES more than McDonald's – now that's just stupid!  

politicalcartoons.com | Earth day, Happy earth, EarthBetting against stupid is our job at PSW but it takes a lot of research to make sure we're on the right side of these bets and for excellent research, you need excellent tools.  

Another stock we follow at PSW is Pfizer (PFE) and they had disappointing earnings yesterday but, as I told the Members, they are going to be selling $15Bn worrth of vaccine this year and, the way it looks, forever after that and that's what they call a blockbuster in the drug business.  Combine that with a search on NewsWatch and we see no analyst lowering their price target below $40 and $35 looks like a Hell of a bargain so we take advantage of the dip with the following options spread (from yesterday's Live Member Chat Room):

  • Sell 10 PFE 2023 $33 puts for $5.15 ($5,150)
  • Buy 20 PFE 2023 $30 calls for $7 ($14,000) 
  • Sell 20 PFE 2023 $37 calls for $4 ($8,000) 

That's net $850 on the $14,000 spread that's $10,000 in the money to start with $13,150 (1,547%) upside potential if PFE can manage to gain $2 from where it is now over the next two years.  I like those odds!   Worst case is, of course, owning 1,000 shares with a loss of the $8.50 so net $30.85 is still $4 (12%) off the current price.

That one already went out as a Top Trade Alert to our Members because who doesn't like to make a 1,547% return on their money in two years.  Reddit can't do that for you but sensible investing with options on a blue chip stock we don't mind owning can!  

You don't have to chase after junk to make wonderful returns in the market – you just have to do the actual work and learn to be patient.

Join us at 1pm, EST, for our Live Trading Webinar with Bill Olsen

 


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  1. Good Morning.


  2. Good morning, everyone. Here is the link to today's webinar with our special guest, Bill Olsen

    https://attendee.gotowebinar.com/register/8083922161458186256


  3. Phil/Newsware,

    Looks good in current time of multiple news outlet and maybe bias too. Do you know anything about pricing? I just saw the free trial option. Any special pricing for psw members.

    regards


  4. Phil,

    Would forming a SPAC for PSWI ever make sense? It seems like in this climate, money is sloshing around like water….


  5. Good morning!

    Pricing/Pat – You'll have to ask Bill later.

    SPAC/Sun – If that's something you are good at, it's something we'd consider.  

    CMG $1,469 – getting right to our $1,400 March target!

    AMZN down a bit on Bezos stepping down.


  6. Oil inventories a huge disappointment.  It's a net build so $56 is a shorting line on /CL.

    • EIA Petroleum Inventories: Crude -1.0M barrels vs. +0.4M consensus, -9.9M last week.
    • EIA Gasoline +4.5vs. barrels vs. +1.1M consensus, +2.5M last week.
    • EIA Distillates Unchanged vs. -0.4M consensus, -0.8M last week.
    • Futures (CL1:COM +1.7%)


  7. Any worry of BABA going the way of CHL???  Chinese restricted list?


  8. BABA/Jeff – Well it's all a worry now that they've done it.  It makes any Chinese stock a risk to hold. 

    Indexes took a little dive since the open. 


  9. RACE downgraded to sell.  Another car company with a silly valuation.

    TSLA barely goes down despite 1/3 of last year's production being recalled (screen issues).


  10. BABA interesting, like other Chinese stock, they were run down, due to the clown's idea, I did sell a while back a 150 put which is working out very nicely. Not sure of selling a put today when the stock is up 12$, even the BCS could be in question. I always like to wait until the heat is down,

    Today is my day to sell short calls with GOOG, as all sheep jumping on the train. So a good short call will be the answer for me. Aiming at the FEB 26 2130 for over 31$, obviously holding  Jan 23 BCS's which just about doubled today.

    BTW my CHL is doing fine always stays at 27.51, steady as she goes. Wait until they wake up and lift the ban on that stock, it will bloom just like the others.


  11. from 52.50 to 56 bucks on wti is exactly 6.66666 percent run. Coincidence ?  this has to be code of somekind.


  12. Code/Tommy – That's how the manipulators let each other know something is "under control".



  13. Is it reasonable that VCR is up 130% since its March low? Look at the max chart; this past year looks like something from outer space.





  14. Not too much excitement.  

    Webinar went well after early technical issue (the issue being I don't know how to add a guest speaker but now I do).

    Oil is cooperating.  Want to lock in 0.25 at $55.75 but I'm expecting $55 before $56 again so I'd be looking to re-short.


  15. Phil,

    Did Bill Olson provide PSW member rates for Newsware's products?  I missed that – my system cut out.

    TIA


  16. Member Rates/8800 – His company only sells the software that allows you to access the services and those are a pass-through (I'm sure he gets a commission) so there's no special discount available.


  17. Phil/8800/Member Rates,

    Newsware is good and very focused on the news but I guess it will be expensive depending upon what premium services you choose. It would have been easier if there was a price for a package or bundle. How is yahoo finance premium services compared to this? or finviz?

    Thanks & Regards


  18. I've never paid for Yahoo or Finviz – can't compare.  Happy with NewWare.


  19. EBAY flying!  Musk used to own them too.

    QCOM down on supply constraints.


  20. Phil/pat_swap, mbr rates,

    Tomorrow, I will see how interested Newsware is in wholesaling its services and exerting pressure on the various news sources to do the same. I tried to interest Seeking Alpha in a similar arrangement in 2020, but they had no interest. It would help if I could suggest a potential number of prospects. Phil can you provide an approx number of PSW members that I can reference in negotiations? 

    TIA


  21. Good day! 

     Is there a link to the full webinar as the one above is only 15 minutes long?


  22. Apparently something went wrong in the recording and we don't have the Webinar this week, which really sucks, unfortunately.  No way to recover it – something went wrong when we were messing about trying to get Bill on the line.

    Prospects/8800 – I think we learned from the last experiment that participation in such things is minimal.  Also, we don't pimp out our subscription list, which is what these people usually want.  We have 42,000 people on our list – it's very impressive until you ask them for money – then it drops to 42!  cheeky