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Monday Market Momentum – Still Going Up

Inflation!

That's the new word driving the markets.  Of course all this freshly-printed money was eventually going to spill out into the economy but, all of a sudden (after strategy meetings at Davos) all the prognosticators are now spinning inflation as the new reason the markets will go higher and higher.  And it's a good reason, as you can see from this chart of the M1 Money Supply (physical money), which has jumped from 4Tn to 6.8Tn (70%) in 2020.

Keep in mind it took the United States of America 244 years to get to $4Tn and we just added $2.Tn in one year.  As Admiral Farragut said: "Full speed ahead and damn the torpedoes" and that sums up the Fed's strategy quite nicely as they have FLOODED the World with Dollars in the past 12 months but those Dollars aren't moving – because we're all locked in our houses.  They are moving to Amazon and Ebay and pretty much every streaming sevice on the planet and to ISPs and, of course to Apple and to Grub Hub and Door Dash and Cloud Servers – the stuff we are doing inside but imagine what will happen when we go outside and spend 70% more money than we had in 2019?

Of course there is going to be inflation and, depending on how you model it, there could be MASSIVE INFLATION ahead as 70% more money in circulation can lead to 70% more spending and a 70% boost to our GDP, from $20Tn to $34Tn and that could reduce our debt to GDP ration back below 100% (barely).  We've done this before, of course.

After World War 1:

YEAR JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC AVE
1917 12.5 15.4 14.3 18.9 19.6 20.4 18.5 19.3 19.8 19.5 17.4 18.1 17.4
1918 19.7 17.5 16.7 12.7 13.3 13.1 18.0 18.5 18.0 18.5 20.7 20.4 18.0
1919 17.9 14.9 17.1 17.6 16.6 15.0 15.2 14.9 13.4 13.1 13.5 14.5 14.6
1920 17.0 20.4 20.1 21.6 21.9 23.7 19.5 14.7 12.4 9.9 7.0 2.6 15.6

After World War II:

1946 2.2 1.7 2.8 3.4 3.4 3.3 9.4 11.6 12.7 14.9 17.7 18.1 8.3
1947 18.1 18.8 19.7 19.0 18.4 17.6 12.1 11.4 12.7 10.6 8.5 8.8 14.4
1948 10.2 9.3 6.8 8.7 9.1 9.5 9.9 8.9 6.5 6.1 4.8 3.0 8.1

After Veitnam:

1973 3.6 3.9 4.6 5.1 5.5 6.0 5.7 7.4 7.4 7.8 8.3 8.7 6.2
1974 9.4 10.0 10.4 10.1 10.7 10.9 11.5 10.9 11.9 12.1 12.2 12.3 11.0
1975 11.8 11.2 10.3 10.2 9.5 9.4 9.7 8.6 7.9 7.4 7.4 6.9 9.1

After Watergate:

1978 6.8 6.4 6.6 6.5 7.0 7.4 7.7 7.8 8.3 8.9 8.9 9.0 7.6
1979 9.3 9.9 10.1 10.5 10.9 10.9 11.3 11.8 12.2 12.1 12.6 13.3 11.3
1980 13.9 14.2 14.8 14.7 14.4 14.4 13.1 12.9 12.6 12.8 12.6 12.5 13.5
1981 11.8 11.4 10.5 10.0 9.8 9.6 10.8 10.8 11.0 10.1 9.6 8.9 10.3

Image result for inflation cartoonAnd never since.  You could say it's about time, 40 years later, for some good old-fashioned inflation.  I remember, back in the late 70s, we used to quit our jobs if the boss didn't give us a 10% raise every year – just to keep up with inflation.  Banks paid you 10% interest AND gave you a toaster to open an account! 

Inflation is our post-crisis go-to move and yes, we will have a post-crisis inflation – I'm just not sure when it will start.  Inflation is a scary thing and owning stocks is the best way to protect yourself but also tricky as you have to consider whether the companies can pass increased costs on to their consumers and also how fast their expenses are inflating.  

Generally, however, a well-run company will keep up with inflation and that means their bottom-line earnings will also inflate.  What happens when earnings inflate 70%?  Stock prices inflate 70%.  That's why it's important to own stocks, whether you believe in the market or not.  

Inflation dosen't actually lead directly to market performance, however:  

  • 1915 – 99.15, 1920 – 71.95
  • 1945 – 192.91, 1948 – 177.30
  • 1972 – 1,020, 1976 – 1,004
  • 1977 – 831, 1981 – 875

Image result for inflation cartoon dr seussThat's because, usually (always in the above periods), costs rise for the companies faster than they can pass it along to the consumers and wages begin to rise (another cost) and certain fixed costs for the consumers, like homes and autos and food – begin to rise quickly and suck up their disposable income before they can get raises and this leads consumers to tighten up, rather than to spend.  

Of course, the Davos crowd is well aware of this but a ticket to Davos STARTS at $62,000 and you weren't invited.  You are the people "THEY" are manipulating, telling YOU to go out and spend that M1 Money Supply and kick-start the economy so that money can trickle up – back into the pockets of the Top 0.1%, where it was intended to go.  

More than a century ago Oscar Wilde, the Irish playwright, penned a perfect description of the social psychology underpinning the market. In Lady Windermere’s Fan, one character asks, “What is a cynic?” The friend responds, “A man who knows the price of everything, and the value of nothing.” The dialogue continues, and the original inquirer states, “And a sentimentalist is a man who sees an absurd value in everything, and doesn’t know the market price of a single thing.”

That's where we are today, between the sentamentalists and the cynics and the sentimentalists certainly have the upper hand at the moment but it's still bases on the optimism that the World will be back to normal in 6 months and I'm not sure that's true.  Does that make me a cycnic or a realist?  

Image

 


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  1. Phil,

    Given the seeming inevitability of inflation, what is on the top for your inflationary hedges list in the stock market, precious metals, etc?

    TIA


  2. Good morning!

    Inflation Hedges/8800 – I like WPM and GOLD as they can both be played for the long-haul.

    • Sell 5 WPM 2023 $40 puts for $9.25 ($4,625)
    • Buy 10 WPM 2023 $35 calls for $13 ($13,000)
    • Sell 10 WPM 2023 $50 calls for $7.50 ($7,500)

    That's net $875 on the $15,000 spread so there's $14,125 (1,614%) of upside potential and the worst-case scenario is owning 500 shares of WPM for net $41.65 – about the current price.  Let's put that in the LTP.

    • Sell 10 GOLD 2023 $23 puts for $5.15 ($5,150) 
    • Buy 20 GOLD 2023 $20 calls for $5.65 ($11,300)
    • Sell 20 GOLD 2023 $27 calls for $3.25 ($6,500) 

    That's a $350 credit on the $14,000 spread so the upside potential is $14,350 (4,100%) and your worst-case scenario is owning 1,000 shares for net $22.65 – about the current price.  Since GOLD has huge short-term premium, let's add them to the Butterfly Portfolio with a double-helping (20/40/40) of the above and then we'll take our net $350 credit and generate this 39-day income:

    • Sell 15 GOLD March $21 puts for 0.54 ($810)
    • Sell 15 GOLD March $25 calls for 0.42 ($630)

    That's $1,440 in premium collected in just 39 of the 711 days we have to sell.  Not bad for a boring play!  

    DBA is the food ETF but it suffers from decay, so not good for the long-term. 

    • OIH is still cheap at $183 and pays huge on the put side so, for the LTP, let's sell 5 of the 2023 $130 puts for $20 ($10,000) just to generate a bit of income.  If OIH stays over $130, that will pay for all the gas we spend money on for the next two years!  

    VLO is another favorite of ours that's down in the dumps.  This one is also for the LTP:

    • Sell 5 VLO 2023 $5 puts for $9.50 ($4,750)
    • Buy 15 VLO 2023 $60 calls for $13.50 ($20,250)
    • Sell 15 VLO 2023 $80 calls for $7 ($10,500) 

    That's net $5,000 on the $30,000 spread so $25,000 (500%) of upside potential on that one where we were a bit more cautious with our put sale.


  3. Holding /CL over the weekend has not worked out so far.  I added 2 more short so 4 at avg $57.26 but down $500 per contract at the moment.  Of course, if we hit $57.26 I stop out of 2 and then left with the original 2 at the much higher strike.


  4. I am not usually a detail editor, think that you intended the VLO 2023 50 Puts.


  5. Inflation: A company with a fake valuation (TSLA) buys $1.5B in a fake currency (bitcoin).

    Bonus: there's no insider trading laws on bitcoin. So if TSLA employees (Elon?) who knew about today's press release bought in yesterday, they made 10%-15% on bitcoin's price swing upward.






  6. NYC opening mass COVID-19 vaccination site at Citi Field


  7. Details/Randy – Thanks, that's an important one!

    BitCoin/BDC – It's brilliant.  If they can get TSLA sales to transact in BTC, it will drive demand way up as people will speculate just to get car discounts.  Then TLSA profits from their own Bitcoin purchases and their stock goes up from the "profits" (now they are an investment bank)" and they make 100s of Billions off their $1.5Bn gamble.  

     

    • Apple (NASDAQ:AAPL) should develop Apple Wallet into a crypto-exchange and add Bitcoin (BTC-USD) or another cryptocurrency to its balance sheet, says RBC analyst Mitch Steves.
    • Steves: "The wallet initiative appears to be a clear multi-billion dollar opportunity for the firm (potential for well over $40 billion in annual revenue with limited R&D)."
    • The analyst notes that Apple would immediately capture market share and offer improved security compared to other companies with the exchange mode, such as Square and PayPal.
    • Purchasing Bitcoin would drive more users to Apple Exchange and boost Bitcoin prices, notes Steves.
    • Earlier today, Tesla announced investing $1.5B in Bitcoin, which sent the crypto past $42K again.

    • Walt Disney (NYSE:DIS) shares are running ahead of this week's earnings report - up 4.8% to a record high today.
    • Trading volume is heavy, with more than 9M shares having changed hands already today vs. a typical daily average of 12.2M.
    • There's little in the way of particular catalysts today, though a Super Bowl commercial last night teased some high-profile new content for Disney Plus: New Marvel series The Falcon and the Winter Soldier will start streaming on the service March 19. (That, after many expected media companies might lay out of advertising a bit in the big game.)
    • The debut of a Captain America-themed show should provide Disney Plus with some attention as the biggest debut since the recently-buzzed series WandaVision, and the service scored some viewing wins with The Mandalorian.
    • The company is set to report earnings after the close on Thursday; consensus expectations are for EPS of -$0.36 on revenues of $15.9B.
    • A U.S. House committee is set to discuss a Democratic plan to dole out another $14B in payroll assistance to U.S. airlines.
    • The plan could keep to keep thousands of workers on the job through September 30, according to a document seen by Reuters.
    • The proposal is also set to extend new aid to airports and Amtrak.
    • The House Financial Services Committee will talk about the proposal on Wednesday.
    • Leading sector gainers include SkyWest (SKYW +6.1%), Spirit Airlines (SAVE +5.3%), Alaska Air Group (ALK +4.9%), United Airlines (UAL +4.9%), JetBlue (JBLU +4.6%), Southwest Airlines (LUV +4.5%) and Mesa Air (MESA +4.5%).
    • Mesa Air is the U.S. airline with the highest Seeking Alpha Quant Rating.
    • Robinhood's (RBNHD) trading in equities and options spiked to a level more than double its previous peaks this year in the retail frenzy for stocks like GameStop (NYSE:GME) -6% and AMC (NYSE:AMC) -12%.
    • In a blog last week that further described how Robinhood dealt with a the logistical and market challenges of the squeeze, the company provided a chart through the last week of January tracking that volume growth.

    • "To say the overnight increases in volume Robinhood experienced … were extraordinarily high would be a vast understatement," President and COO Jim Swartout wrote.
    • The January move made the spike in volume after the COVID March 2020 selloff, where its "customers, many of whom are young and have long-term financial horizons, saw this as an opportunity," look like "a blip."
    • Robinhood hasn't disclosed its daily average revenue trades (DARTs) figures since August, when it reported 4.3M for June.
    • Interactive Brokers (NASDAQ:IBKR) recently reported January DARTs up a whopping 223%. Schwab (NYSE:SCHW) reported Q4 DARTs up nearly 300% compared with Q3.
    • Daily unique users for Robinhood have tripled since the start of the year, while traffic surged 1,200% for the week ended Jan. 29, Bloomberg reported, citing data from SimilarWeb.
    • The House Financial Services Committee is holding a hearing on market volatility on Feb. 18.
    • Goldman Sachs says broker order flow will be discussed, among a host of other topics.
    • Earlier today, ExOne provided Q4 and FY21 revenue forecasts that topped consensus estimates.
    • 3D printing peers are moving today: 3D Systems (NYSE:DDD) +6.4%, Stratasys (NASDAQ:SSYS) +4.5%, Voxeljet (NASDAQ:VJET) +24.4%, Proto Labs (NYSE:PRLB) +7.9%, Nano Dimension (NASDAQ:NNDM) +7.3%, and Desktop Metal (NYSE:DM) +11%.
    • Upcoming catalyst: Stratasys is expected to report earnings later this month.
    • Last month, 3D Systems soared after reporting strong preliminary Q4 financials.
    • 3D also advanced after announcing its expanded regenerative medicine efforts.
    • The recent run-up for 3D printing names led to recent downgrades at JPMorgan and Craig-Hallum on valuation concerns.
    • Harley-Davidsons' (NYSE:HOG) President and CEO Zeitz Jochen discloses the purchase of 30800 common shares at ~$32.47 on Feb. 4 for ~$1.0M.
    • (HOG +3.2%)
    • Penn National Gaming (PENN -9.2%) and DraftKings (DKNG -4.5%) fall back after a blistering pace for both stocks ahead of the Super Bowl.
    • Penn is still 88% higher over the last 90 days and DraftKings is up 48% for the same time period.
    • Things did not go exceptionally well for sports betting apps with the huge Super Bowl test as DraftKings, FanDuel(OTCPK:PDYPY) and BetMGM (NYSE:MGM) all had some tech issues reported right before the kickoff of Super Bowl LV in certain regions with high traffic. Meanwhile, the Barstool betting app appears to have passed the traffic test with flying colors.
    • The American Gaming Association forecast a record 7.6M bettors would place bets at online sportsbooks this year.
    • Penn's earnings call last week highlighted the momentum with sports betting in new states.
    • The S&P energy sector (XLE +3.1%) sprints to the top of today's standings as Brent crude oil (CO1:COM) tops $60/bbl for the first time in more than a year, helped by supply cuts among key producers and hopes for further U.S. economic stimulus measures that can lift demand.
    • April Brent +1.6% to $60.33/bbl; March WTI (CL1:COM) +1.8% to $57.90/bbl.
    • The oil and gas sector already has jumped ~11.5% in February to extend its Q1 gain to 15.5%, which places it well ahead of the 10 remaining S&P groups.
    • Occidental Petroleum (OXY +10.1%) jumps to the top of this morning's S&P 500 winners; other gainers include MRO +8.2%APA +7.2%FANG +5.7%DVN +5.2%SLB +4%XOM +3.9%HAL +3.4%COP +3.3%.
    • Several factors are feeding into the buoyant prices, especially the level of financial market enthusiasm over the rollout of COVID-19 vaccines, says Cailin Birch at The Economist Intelligence Unit.
    • "Support seems robust and the narrative sees the oil market swiftly burning through the remaining crisis surplus, potentially running into tightness later this year," says Julius Baer analyst Norbert Rücker.
    • Saudi Arabia sent a "very bullish signal" last week when it kept monthly crude prices to Asia unchanged despite expectations of small cuts, OCBC economist Howie Lee says, adding "I don't think anybody dares to short the market when Saudi is like this."
    • Also, Pres. Biden said the U.S. would not lift sanctions on Iran simply to get it back to the negotiating table, supporting oil prices.
    • Wood Mackenzie forecasts global oil demand should rise by nearly 7% this year, but Commerzbank's Eugen Weinberg thinks optimism over demand is overdone.


    • Continues hopes for stimulus helping the economic recovery get the stock market off to a good start for the week, with bonds selling off and the S&P (SP500) +0.5%, Nasdaq (COMP) +0.5% and Dow (DJI) +0.6% gaining.
    • Small-caps are also moving further into record territory, with the Russell 2000 (RTY) +1.4% outperforming.
    • Ten out of 11 S&P sectors are higher, with Energy (NYSEARCA:XLE), often the outsize winner or loser, at the top. Crude futures +1% are moving toward $58/barrel.
    • Real Estate (NYSEARCA:XLRE) is the lone sector in the red as interest rates continue their march higher.
    • The 30-year Treasury yield topped 2% overnight, while the 10-year topped 1.2%, the highest levels seen since last February. Inflation expectations are now at the highest level since 2014.
    • The rise in rates is helping Financials (NYSEARCA:XLF) continue their run. They were among the best performers last week.
    • Recovery sectors like airlines and cruise lines are helping Consumer Discretionary (NYSEARCA:XLY) and Industrials (NYSEARCA:XLI).
    • The exception is the casinos, with Wynn dropping on a share offering after BofA cut Las Vegas Sands.
    • Bank of America upgrades MGM Resorts (MGM +1.7%) to a Neutral rating from Underperform.
    • Analyst Shaun Kelley: "While we continue to struggle with the path ahead to fix MGM’s incredibly complex corporate structure, Las Vegas is poised for a strong recovery in 2H21 and 2022 and its execution with BetMGM for sports betting and online gaming has been impressive."
    • It is noted the MGM could be a story stock with the potential strategic guidance of IAC, strong brands, recovery potential, unique assets and cash/liquidity cushion all factoring in.
    • Wall Street in general is cautious on MGM, with 2 Buy-equivalent ratings, 14 Neutral-equivalent ratings and 3 Sell-equivalent ratings on the books.
    • A selloff in bonds continues to push interest rates higher as anticipation of a larger fiscal stimulus package grows.
    • The 30-year Treasury yield topped 2% overnight, for the first time since Feb. 19, 2020, before easing back down in morning trading.
    • The 10-year yield hit 1.2%, also for the first time since last February.
    • The 30-year yield is now at 1.97%, off less than a basis point. The 10-year has eased back to 1.18%, which was the post-pandemic-plunge high and has been a recent level of resistance.
    • Among long-term government bond ETFs: (NASDAQ:TLT) +0.2%(NYSEARCA:SPTL)(NASDAQ:VGLT)(NYSEARCA:EDV) -0.1%(NYSEARCA:TBT) -0.2%(NYSEARCA:TMF) +0.6%(NYSEARCA:TTT) +0.4%(NYSEARCA:UBT) -0.5%
    • Rates are coming up to levels where market watchers are talking about more Federal Reserve intervention on the longer end of the yield curve.
    • The Fed "is going to do everything they can to let inflation run hot and keep yields low," Peter Tchir, macro strategy head at Academy Securities, told Bloomberg.
    • Inflation expectations have hit their highest level since August 2014, with the 10-year breakeven inflation rate, the difference between nominal and real yields, at 2.21
    • Aphria (NASDAQ:APHA) announces that Chief Strategy Officer, Denise Faltischek, will also assume the role of Managing Director of Aphria Germany, effective January 23, 2021.
    • She will report to Irwin D. Simon, Aphria's Chairman and CEO. Ms. Faltischek joined Aphria in September 2019 with extensive consumer-packaged goods experience and expertise leading over 50 acquisitions.
    • Pot stocks are higher this morning: Aurora Cannabis (NYSE:ACB) +3.4%, CIBC raised its price target on Aurora Cannabis to C$17 from C$15; Hexo (NYSE:HEXO) +3.3%; Tilray (NASDAQ:TLRY) +3.3%; Canopy Growth (NYSE:CGC) +0.6%; Cronos Group (NASDAQ:CRON) +1.6%; OrganiGram Holdings (NASDAQ:OGI) +8.1%.
    • Cannabis stocks have rallied over the past week as $7B GW Pharma deal spurs interest in weed and its medical benefits.
    • Cannabis companies have stronger fundamentals that will drive the sector higher over the next five years, says Ted Waller in his SA article, The New Dawn In Cannabis Has Arrived.

    • Grupo Aeromexico (OTCPK:GRPAQ) reports revenue per kilometers declined 51.1% Y/Y and -0.7% M/M to 1.741B in January.
    • Domestic RPKs -8.4% and international RPKs -66.2%.
    • Capacity down 38.1% Y/Y and up 4.9% M/M to 2.746B available seat kilometers. Domestic capacity -8.9% and international capacity -49.8%.
    • January load factor slipped 1,490 bps to 65.4%.
    • Passengers transported down 33.8% to 1,092K.
    • The Company will use the advantages of Chapter 11 to strengthen its financial position and liquidity, protect and preserve its operations and assets, and implement the necessary adjustments to face the impact of COVID-19.
    • Truist Securities drops Denny's (NASDAQ:DENN) to a Hold rating from Buy.
    • The firm is of the view that there is no justification for increasing estimates or target multiples on Denny's, given potential risk to the post-COVID sales recovery found in its survey and a more limited history of same-store sales outperformance and market share gains.
    • Shares of Denny's are 1.09% down premarket to $17.22, not far off from the Truist price target of $17.00 and average Wall Street PT of $16.50
    • UBS stays bullish on Skechers (SKX +0.2%) after taking in last week's earnings report.
    • Analyst Jay Sole: "SKX's 4Q report was neutral for the stock price as the company's near-term margin commentary weighed on sentiment. However, the current market environment remains very forgiving, in our view. We think the market will very soon revisit this stock and see reset FY21 expectations, a business which will improve sequentially throughout CY21, a relatively inexpensive looking valuation, and decide SKX is still a good reopening stock."
    • The firm increases its price target on SKX to $52 from $48 as it rolls forward the valuation to FY23 from FY22. The new PT reps 40% upside for Skechers.
    • Skechers missed the consensus EPS mark last week.
    • Stifel lifts Target (NYSE:TGT) to a Buy rating from Hold.
    • Analyst Mark Astrachan: "Our positive stance reflects our view that share gains in recent years across most categories, especially digital (~18% of F2020 sales) continue. Within digital, outperformance in same-day services has been most notable, driven by investments in pickup/driveup/Shipt."
    • The firm's consumer spending survey indicates Target consumers are ~40% more likely to be users of at least one same-day service compared to overall respondents, which sets up Target to see a comparable sales boost.
    • Shares of Target are up 1.37% premarket to $191.44.
    • Target is expected to post its Q4 earnings report during the first week of March
    • Bitcoin (BTC-USD) pushes past $42K again after Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA) discloses it invested $1.5B in the crypto and expects to begin accepting Bitcoin for payment "in the near future." (updated at 8:03 AM ET.)
    • The policy to accept Bitcoin as a form of payment for its products will initially be on a limited basis "which we may or may not liquidate upon receipt," it said in its 10-K filing.
    • Bitcoin recently trades at $41.6K; at about 6 AM ET it was trading at $39.3K.
    • Tesla stock gains 2.2% in premarket trading. Some other Bitcoin-linked stocks also jump — Riot Blockchain (NASDAQ:RIOT) surges 16%, Marathon Patent Group (NASDAQ:MARA) +19%, Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (GBTC) +10%, and Microstrategy (NASDAQ:MSTR) +13%.
    • The crypto with the largest market cap has been on the rise Tesla founder Elon Musk has been talking it up. He promoted the digital currency about a week ago in Clubhouse audio app, saying that Bitcoin "is really on the verge of getting broad acceptance by conventional finance people."
    • Bill Miller's Miller Opportunity Trust isn't as bold. It disclosed in a filing the fund may invest in Grayscale Bitcoin Trust, a vehicle that institutions use to invest in the crypto.
    • In January, Chris DeMuth, Jr., predicted that Tesla would buy Bitcoin.
    • China's retail sales of passenger cars rose 25.7% Y/Y to 2.16M vehicles, the strongest growth since September 2016 – China Passenger Car Association.
    • Sales of electric cars expanded 281.4% Y/Y to 158K in January but dropped 23.9% M/M.
    • Retail sales declined 20% in January 2020 and 7% in December 2020.
    • Nissan Motor's (OTCPK:NSANY) China sales grew 23.8% in January, and sales of Honda Motor (NYSE:HMC) rose 4.8%.
    • Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA) started delivering its second Chinese-made vehicle, the Model Y compact crossover vehicle. The company sold 15,484 Model 3s and Model Ys that were made in its Shanghai factory.
    • Sector watch: Nio (NYSE:NIO), Great Wall Motor (OTCPK:GWLLF)(OTCPK:GWLLY), Kandi Technologies (NASDAQ:KNDI), Geely Automobile (OTCPK:GELYF), Volkswagen (OTCPK:VWAGY), Daimler (OTCPK:DDAIF), Ford (NYSE:F), Guangzhou Automobile Group (OTCPK:GNZUF), Toyota (NYSE:TM), Nissan (OTCPK:NSANY), Honda (HMC), Tesla (TSLA), General Motors (NYSE:GM), BAIC Motor (OTC:BCCMY), Li Auto (NASDAQ:LI), XPeng (NYSE:XPEV), state-owned SAIC Motor and Dongfeng Motor (OTCPK:DNFGY).
    • Source
    • "The electric car future is finally taking off." BNEF -EV sales to surge 60% in 2021. Biden vows to replace U.S. Gov. fleet with EVs, writes Matt Bohlsen in his article on Seeking Alpha.

  8. The problem with the Bitcoin scam is defining what a scam actually is, relative to every other scam in the world up to, and including, the fact that life itself and the existence of the universe are really one big scam. Like Slick Willy figuring out what is is.

    I'm reading Harari's Homo Sapien now. It's interesting.


  9. Meanwhile the Apple Hyundai deal falls apart 

    THE WSJ is running 2 stories next to each other    The Apple deal story and this: Chrysler, Fiat Dealers Want New Boss to Fix Ailing Brands or Consider Cuts   hint hint 


  10. Scam/BDC – Well, if Musk is right, the whole universe as we know it is nothing more than a program someone is running.  We may all be NPCs, so I wouldn't worry too much about it.

    AAPL/Stock – I thought it was Kia?  Apple car will be huge.

    Now here's a conspiracy theory I like:


  11. AMYZF to the moon! :)


  12. Today's bitcoin scam caused 4 stocks on my radar to get away though pretty sure I will have plenty of other chances 

    SQ, MARA, RIOT, VIH       ( Phil , yes I know what you are going to say.  Just using gambling money, not long term investments )  


  13. AMYZF/BDC – All this talk about a commodities shortage.  This is all just the end-of-bubble playbook they are running again.  Oil went to $145 at the end of the 2008 bubble and gold was $1,900 and Copper was over $4 because, when they run out of stocks to talk people into – they start selling them commodities.  

    Gambling/Stock – Have fun! 

    What could possibly go wrong?


  14. btc-Yes along with metals it is making a move. So is AG. Did you see the PE on amyzf? Had to laugh. If infrastructure starts again, CLF might be good. They had a write up on them coming out of bankruptcy and getting taconite rolling out. But what do I know? I told you to buy BYND when it was at $40 too!


  15. LOL , what could go wrong- pretty much everything.  You're right. Those stock were on my crypto watchlist- no positions 


  16. Wow and Clf has a good short interest with 4 days to cover! 


  17. Let's start a Reddit for them!


  18. Phil/CLF,

    it is 70% Inst owned so not sure it will have the same effect.

    What is take on SPG & SKX after their earnings?

    Thanks & Regards


  19. SPG/Pat – Well they missed but not by much and people are not upset.  

    • As of February 5, 2021, the Company has collected from its U.S. retail portfolio, 90% of its net billed rents for the second, third and fourth quarters, combined.

    That is way better than I thought but SPG does have the high-end customers less likely to go BK on them.  

    • The Company currently estimates net income to be within a range of $4.60 to $4.85 per diluted share and that FFO will be within a range of $9.50 to $9.75 (consensus $9.57) per diluted share for the year ending December 31, 2021.  This guidance range assumes no further government mandated shutdowns of the Company's domestic retail properties.

    I'm glad we own them – very nice.

    SKX/Pat – Their earnings were last week, also a miss, also no damage.  Maybe not this year but they should be good for $2/share so why not buy them at $36?


  20. Phil/Stocks,

    Thanks for your insight on SPG and SKX.

    regards