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Which Way Wednesday – Fed Edition

Market Observations. Tim Taschler, CMT, Sprott USA, 3–24–19 | by Tim  Taschler | MediumTo taper or not to taper?

That is the question the Fed will answer today, in the second to last meeting of 2021 (Dec 15th is last), so it's possible they will kick the can down the road again as GDP was a disappointing 2% but the market is at record highs and inflation is not only NOT transitory, but it's accelerating.  

During his last meeting with Congress, Elizabeth Warren made it very clear to Jerome Powell that she was coming for his job if he didn't cut the crap and start doing something that favored the savers instead of the bankers.  Just how much money would you be making if you could borrow people's money (which is what a bank does when you make a deposit) for 0.5% and then leverage it 10 TIMES (thank you Fed) and lend it to others at 3% (mortgage rates) KNOWING that the Government will bail you out if the mortgages fail?   So that's 10x 3% is 30% and 10 x 0.5% (origination fees) is 5% is 35% back on their 0.5% loans.  No wonder banks have record profits.

Speaking of record profits – our Oil (/CL) shorts just hit $82 for a $5,680 gain and $82 is certainly going to be bouncy and, since we fell from $85 (not quite), per our fabulous 5% Rule™: 20% of a $3 fall is 0.60 so $82.60 is going to be a weak bounce and $83.20 is the strong bounce line and, with inventories coming at 10:30 – it's not worth risking those gains.  

The API Report showed a 2M barrel build in Oil and tomorrow, OPEC+ is expected to follow through with a scheduled 400,000 barrel/day increase in production – despite the lackluster demand.  Oil shouldn't be at $80, let alone $85 and I still think we see the $70s again in the next week or two.  After that, they'll bump us for Thanksgiving but then we can short it again.  We set these shorting lines in last week's Live Trading Webinar (replay available here).  There will be another one for our Members at 1pm, EST today where we'll have a chance to review today's EIA Report while we wait for the Fed Decision (2pm) and Powell's press conference after.

Speaking of the 5% Rule™, the S&P 500's next line is 4,610 and we're over that for the moment but it needs to hold (without failing) it for a couple of weeks before we capitulate and start looking at higher ranges.  This critical test is coming during earnings season, which is good as we're getting a real-time valuation for the index:

Meanwhile, we're still expecting a pullback, at least for the run from 4,390 to 4,610 so 120 points up means 20% retraces of 24 points to 4,586 (weak) and 4,562 (strong) so with the S&P Futures (/ES) at 4,620 this morning – I like taking a speculative short here – with tight stops above – ahead of the Fed meeting where some people are bound to get nervous during the day.  

We'll see how that goes and we'll see what the Fed decides this afternoon.  Until then, nothing matters – other than BBBY being up 30% after making a deal with Kroger (KR), which is no big deal but sent the stock flying on the announcement.  This will likely lead to other team-ups (like in superhero movies).  

We do like BBBY and we're sorry we missed the chance to get back in as you could have bought the whole company for $1Bn last week.  It was a Long-Term Portfolio pick and a Top Trade Alert from April, 2020 – congratulations to all who played (we cashed out early):

Top Trades for Thu, 16 Apr 2020 15:15 – BBBY

 

  • Baird checks in on Bed Bath & Beyond (BBBY +17.2%) after the retailer's earnings reporte.
  • "While we believe BBBY has enough liquidity to survive this downturn, the unprecedented demand shock adds another layer of complexity to what is already a difficult turnaround process,' reads the firm's update.
  • Q2 and Q3 are seen dropping 5% to 20% from last year's levels.
  • Barid keeps a Neutral rating in place and lowers its price target to $5 from $10 to reflect reduced EPS estimates.
  • Previously: Bed Bath & Beyond +13% after slight sales beat (April 15)

Very tempting down here!  I think, for the LTP, we may as well pick up the 50 of the BBBY 2022 $3 ($3.55)/10 ($1.45) bull call spreads at $2.05 ($10,250) and sell 20 of the 2022 $5 puts for $2.62 ($5,240) for a net $5,010 entry on the $35,000 spread so $29,990 (598%) upside potential if BBBY can get back to $10 in 20 months. 

 

 


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  1. Good morning. Here is the link to today's webinar.

    https://attendee.gotowebinar.com/register/4104334388778243087


  2. BBBY/Phil – yes, very happy  this morning. Chased it all the way down, and huge payoff. Sweet it is!


  3. Good Morning.


  4. KPTI is having fun…


  5. Good morning! 

    BBBY/Snow – Congrats, they are a solid company (even though they sent me decaf pods when I wanted regular) but they keep getting sold off by non-believers.  

    Nov. 03, 2021 9:45 AM ET

    • October U.S. PMI Composite Index (Final): 57.6 vs. 57.3 consensus and 55.0 prior.
    • The IHS Markit US Composite PMI Output Index* posted 57.6 in October, up from 55.0 in September to signal the fastest rise in private sector output since July. Although manufacturing production continued to be constrained by supply issues, the overall expansion was supported by a sharper service sector upturn.
    • Contributing to the overall expansion was a faster increase in new business. The rise was supported by sharp upticks in new orders at services providers and manufacturers. Foreign client demand fared less well, however, as goods producers registered only a fractional expansion and service sector firms saw a further contraction.
    • Services Index: 58.7 vs. 54.9 consensus, 58.2 prior
    • The latest expansion was sharp overall and the quickest since July. The upturn was faster than the series average, with firms linking the increase to greater client demand and a further rise in new business.

    Now!

    • October ISM Services PMI Index66.7 vs. 61.9 consensus and 61.9 prior.
    • Prices Index: 82.9 vs. 77.5 prior; reaches second highest reading ever.
    • Business Activity Index: 68.8 vs. 62.3 prior.
    • New Orders Index: 69.7 vs. 63.5 prior.
    • Employment Index: 51.6 vs. 53.0 prior.
    • Supplier Deliveries: 75.7 vs. 68.8 prior.

    Now!

    • September Factory Orders+0.2% to $515.9B vs. +0.1% consensus and +1.0% prior (revised from +0.7%).
    • New Orders +0.2% to $515.9B.
    • Shipments +0.6% to $511.5B.
    • Unfilled Orders +0.7% to $1,247.3B.
    • Inventories +0.8% to $756.9B.
    • The inventories-to-shipments ratio was 1.48, unchanged from August.

    • The stock market is understandably hesitant as anticipates the announcemenet of Fed tapering.
    • The Dow (DJI) -0.3% is the worst performer with Goldman dragging with a price drop, while the S&P (SP500) is about flat and the Nasdaq (COMP.IND) +0.1% is faring better as megacaps are up.
    • The 10-year Treasury yield is up 1 basis points to 1.56%.
    • The Federal Reserve will conclude its latest two-day meeting this afternoon and the stakes couldn't be higher. The central intends to end its pandemic-era bond purchases, a process known as "tapering," by stepping away from a historic level of support for the economy. Since June 2020, the Fed has been buying $120B in monthly asset purchases, including $80B in Treasury bonds and $40B in mortgage-backed securities.
    • As described in the last FOMC minutes, the "illustrative tapering path" would trim purchases by $15B per month beginning in November or December, bringing an end to the program by June or July. The reductions will also proceed at about twice the pace as the last time the Fed ended a bond buying program in 2014. Less is known about the remainder of the Fed's balance sheet – which currently stands at $8.6T – as discussions have not even surfaced yet on when it would actually reduce those holdings (that likely won't come until rate hikes are underway).
    • Investors will also be looking for comments on the surge in inflation, which is lasting longer than anticipated. Headline rates are running at twice the Fed's 2% target, while rising prices, low business inventories and a growing labor shortage may mean the high pace of increases will continue for the foreseeable future. The jobs market has also taken on a different course than Fed officials have expected, with participation improving only slowly despite near-record numbers of openings.

    LYFT +11.94%Nov. 03, 2021 9:34 AM ET

    • John Zimmer, co-founder and president of Lyft (NASDAQ:LYFT), said Wednesday that his firm's second consecutive quarter of adjusted EBITDA profitability represents a sign that "recovery is happening in our business."
    • Speaking to CNBC, Zimmer reported that the ride-sharing service focused on attracting an adequate number of drivers during the quarter, leading to a better driver/rider equilibrium.
    • As a result of these efforts, the number of active drivers jumped 44% from last year.
    • Meanwhile, Zimmer acknowledged that prices for his company's services were "still higher than we'd like," although he noted that the increased capacity created by more drivers led to a large price improvement from the previous quarter.
    • Looking at the broader economy, the Lyft president noted that rides to airports rose 3x compared to last year, which he interpreted as a sign of rebounding business travel.
    • However, Zimmer said that there are signs that this recovery still has more room to continue, as airport rides currently make up about 8% of the company's revenue when they previously totaled around 9%.
    • Lyft (LYFTrecorded an adjusted profit for Q3, surprising analysts, who had expected a loss. The company's revenue also exceeded projections, climbing 73% from last year to $864M.
    • LYFT jumped nearly 14% in Wednesday's pre-market action on the news. The stock has been in a trading range for much of the past few months.
    • Still, LYFT and its bigger rival Uber (NYSE:UBER) have both underperformed the broader market in 2021. LYFT has slipped 8% for the year, while UBER has retreated nearly 16%. Meanwhile, the S&P 500 has posted a nearly 25% advance since the end of 2020:







  6. Phil,

    Would like your thoughts on plummeting price action in EPD. Revenues were up nicely, earnings not so much. Great yield (8%). Their classmate, MPLX, is at highs. Any reason that you see.

    Thanks


  7. Unfortunate build in Oil keeps things heading lower:

    CL1:COM -3.65%Nov. 03, 2021 10:30 AM ET18 Comments

    Not bothering /NG:

        

    That chart is still last month's contract.  Front month (Dec) is now $80.80.

    Go NYT! 

    NYT -5.97%Nov. 03, 2021 11:59 AM ET

    • The New York Times (NYSE:NYT) gave up premarket gains and is 6% lower after clearing analyst expectations with its third-quarter earnings on a particularly strong showing in subscriptions, still holding up even against some 2020 COVID-19 pandemic comparisons.
    • Analysts expected a half-billion dollars in sales; revenues overall rose 19% to $509.1 million, and adjusted operating profit rose to $65.1 million from $56.5 million in the prior-year period as the revenue gains outstripped cost increases.
    • Meanwhile, digital-only subscriptions came in ahead of expectations of 7.39 million, landing at 7.59 million, after its best-ever quarter for digital subs.
    • Overall, across digital and print products the company finished the quarter with more than 8.3 million paid subs. It also hit the milestone of more than 1 million international digital subs.
    • That's the result of a net new 455,000 digital subscriptions (including 320,000 for News, and 135,000 for Games, Cooking and Wirecutter) – the best third-quarter results for News and total subs since launching its digital pay model more than a decade ago.
    • "While it was a busy news period with a wide range of topics capturing the public’s attention, our subscription performance was also the result of actions we’ve taken to improve conversion and to begin to differentiate the subscriber experience in order to showcase its benefits to prospects and to drive retention," says CEO Meredith Kopit Levien.
    • Revenue breakout: Subscription, $342.6 million (up 13.8%); Advertising, $110.9 million (up 39.9%); Other, $55.6 million (up 19.1%).
    • Liquidity as of Sept. 26 was $1.04 billion, up $158 million from the end of December. It also has access to a $250 million revolving line of credit with no outstanding borrowings there.
    • For the fourth quarter, subscription revenues are expected to grow about 12% (digital-only subs revenue up 25%), while total advertising and digital advertising revenues are expected to rise in the mid-teens amid a sequential slowdown due to tougher comparisons.

    I don't care about the stock – I just want the paper to survive.

    COIN +0.30%Nov. 03, 2021 10:48 AM ET7 Comments

    • Cryptocurrency exchange Coinbase (COIN +0.4%) is starting to test a subscription-based service that will include such benefits as zero-fee trading and prioritized phone support, The Block reports, citing materials it has reviewed.
    • Called Coinbase (NASDAQ:COIN) One, it will initially be offered to a small number of users. It isn't clear how much it will charge for the service, the article said.
    • "Coinbase has started testing a subscription product for our customers," a company spokesperson confirmed to The Block in a statement. "Customers in the test group will have the ability to buy, sell, and convert digital currencies on the Coinbase (COIN) platform without a Coinbase fee for each trade (spread fees still apply)."
    • The future product will be shaped by the feedback Coinbase (COIN) gets from its users, the spokesperson said.
    • That's part of the the firm's mission to diversify its revenue stream beyond its main trading operations. Coinbase (COIN) also started allowing users to borrow up to $1M from the company using users' bitcoin as collateral.
    • That's after the company ended its Lend program after the SEC threatened to sue.
    • SA contributor John Miller discusses the SEC skirmishes with Coinbase.

    BBBY +19.05%Nov. 03, 2021 10:33 AM ET4 Comments

    • Bed, Bath & Beyond CEO Mark Tritton said Wednesday that a partnership with grocery store chain Kroger (NYSE:KR) is meant to drive sales growth, as well as increase its brand authority in categories like bath and baby products.
    • Speaking to CNBC, the top executive of Bed, Bath & Beyond (NASDAQ:BBBY) called the deal "a long time in the making" and pointed out that the rollout will still take some time.
    • However, he predicted that Kroger (KR) would provide a "clear entry point" for many consumers and provide a platform to drive authority, especially for its buybuy BABY brand.
    • Shares of Bed, Bath & Beyond (BBBY) jumped nearly 35% at the start of Wednesday's trading, as investors reacted to the announcement of the deal with Kroger (KR). The company also revealed that it plans to complete its $1B share repurchase plan two years ahead of schedule.
    • Under the KR tie-up, BBBY will make certain products available through KR's website. The deal also includes the launch of a small-scale physical store pilot beginning in 2022.
    • Tritton characterized the partnership as one of the "big, bold moves" it has made to accelerate its turnaround.
    • The CEO noted that the firm is now three quarters into a 12-quarter turnaround plan. He said the firm remains "on track" for that progress.
    • On the buyback program, the company said it would use the remaining $400M under the current authorization by the end of fiscal 2021.
    • However, given the spike in the company's share price, Tritton said the firm would be "prudent" about the repurchases and assess what's best at any given point.
    • BBBY rose $5.74 in early Wednesday's trading, climbing to $22.53 at about 10 AM ET. The news of the Kroger (KR) deal triggered a short-squeeze in the heavily shorted stock, explaining the outsized reaction to the deal.
    • In part because of intermittent meme interest, BBBY has had a choppy 2021, marked by sudden short-lived spikes, interspaced with longer periods of range-bound trading.
    • The stock spent most of October hovering off a 52-week low of $13.38.
    • With the latest advance, BBBY reached its highest level since late September, although it remains well off its 52-week high of $53.90.
    • With its lackluster trading over the month prior to Wednesday's rally, BBBY had fallen behind the overall market for 2021 performance. Not counting Wednesday's move, the stock was down about 6% since the end of 2020, compared to a nearly 25% advance in the S&P 500:

    UBER +6.54%Nov. 03, 2021 10:15 AM ET33 Comments

    • Tesla (TSLA +0.6%) cars will now be available for Uber (UBER +5.3%) drivers in London to buy or lease as part of the ride-hailing company's incentive program to expand electric vehicle usage.
    • In January 2019, Uber London added a clean air fare of 15 pence per mile to help assist drivers with the cost of switching to more sustainable vehicles. Through the program, Uber has raised €135M ($156M). An Uber spokesperson said that the typical driver has about €3,500-€4,000 ($4,000-$4,600) available through the program to spend on switching to greener vehicles, depending on how many miles they have driven.
    • The plan only allows drivers to swap to specific vehicles, including those made by partners Nissan (OTCPK:NSANY -0.2%) and Kia (OTCPK:KIMTF). Now, drivers will have the choice to use the funds to get a Tesla.
    • Uber says that more than 4,000 drivers have made the swap to EVs in London and over 90% of new drivers operate an EV. Uber pledged to have 50% of miles driven in seven European capitals be from EVs by 2025.
    • The Tesla addition in London comes after Uber's deal with Hertz which allows drivers to rent Tesla vehicles in several major U.S. cities.

    Z -20.89%Nov. 03, 2021 10:10 AM ET15 Comments

    • Shares of Zillow (NASDAQ:Z) gap down 19% to levels not seen since Aug. 2020 as BTIG analyst Jake Fuller downgrades the stock from a Buy rating to Neutral.
    • The analyst highlights Zillow's (Z) plans to pull out of the iBuying business given the inability to accurately forecast home prices and the risk that comes with that; it'll likely take until Q2 of next year to work through the inventory balance, he writes in a note to clients
    • Fuller sees revenue down "sharply" through 2025, EBITDA down and EBITDA margin up.
    • Lower price target to a fair value range of $66-109 per share, derived from a 2026 EBITDA multiple of 18-22x.
    • The Neutral rating disagrees with the Bullish SA Authors' Rating of 4.00, but agrees with the Neutral Wall Street Analyst Rating at 2.50.
    • In addition, CFRA analyst Kenneth Leon downgrades Zillow (Z) stock from a Buy to Hold on similar reasons that BTIG points outs; lowers price target to $95, implying 9.2% upside from Tuesday's close; based on a forward total enterprise value/EBITDA  of 41.5x the 2022 EBITDA estimate of $2.56/share, near the peer average at 46.1x, according to the note.
    • Rival Opendoor Technologies (NASDAQ:OPEN) stock is also down more than 10% on the week, though shares rise about 1% intra-day.
    • Another rival, Redfin (NASDAQ:RDFN) trades in net negative territory on the week as well, down 3% so far on Wednesday.
    • Compass (COMP -3.5%) is another competitor that has made similar moves throughout the week.
    • Earlier, Zillow (Z) Co-founder and CEO Rich Barton said the digital home-flipping business is too risky and too volatile.
    • Additionally, the company takes a $304M writedown of inventory as it bought homes at higher prices in Q3 than its current estimates of future selling prices.


  8. 8800 EPD We discussed yesterday and it was some 22.20 +- . Today dropped .15 cents so where must I look for the a plummeting?

    Phil showed the trade entered 1. Oct at 15.00.


  9. EPD/8800 – We liked them when they were stupidly cheap, now they are over our target.  The bears assume this is peak earnings and, since they weren't amazing, it's downhill from here.  EPD is an MLP so it puts most of the profits back into dividends but they have cheap borrowing costs and are set up for future growth.  

    I still like them, especially back at $22 but maybe they get cheaper – I think I told someone yesterday not to be the hero and let them show us a bottom first.  The trade we did was Oct 2020, not last month and they were down around $16 at the time so $22 is nice but we can do better, hopefully.  The 2024 $20 puts are $3 so $4 would be the magic number for me to sell some to add them to our watch list (short puts in the LTP). 


  10. SPWR reports tonight.


  11. Treasury Direct is offering the I-bond at 7.12% yield currently. The EE bond is yielding a more-typical 0.1%, but if you can hold it for 20-years it's "guaranteed to double," which is a pretty big asterick — that's 3.53% APY. Better than a lot of long-dated gov't bonds, and there's no principal loss risk. 

    You can buy up to $10k per year per individual, per issue at treasurydirect.gov

    Their website is kinda "web 1.0" but I set up an account and bought the I-bond in about 15 minutes. It's not too bad.


  12. I guess JFK Jr is still dead? 


  13. SPWR/Pman – Got to check our portfolios in case we need more cowbell!  

    Future is Now:

    SPWR Long Call 2023 20-JAN 20.00 CALL [SPWR @ $32.82 $0.25] 50 5/21/2021 (443) $43,500 $8.70 $6.40 $8.70     $15.10 $0.19 $32,000 73.6% $75,500
    SPWR Short Call 2023 20-JAN 35.00 CALL [SPWR @ $32.82 $0.25] -50 5/21/2021 (443) $-20,600 $4.12 $3.56     $7.68 $-0.23 $-17,775 -86.3% $-38,375
    SPWR Short Put 2023 20-JAN 20.00 PUT [SPWR @ $32.82 $0.25] -20 5/21/2021 (443) $-10,200 $5.10 $-2.55     $2.55 $-0.04 $5,100 50.0% $-5,100

    This is a $75,000 position at net $32,025 so plenty of upside and we're almost 100% in the money.  We'll sell 2024 puts when these are closer to expiration or if earnings are good enough to make them very unlikely (they kind of are already), the $25 puts are $6.25 so we'll get some nice money for those too.   Actually, I can't believe you can still get $2.55 for the 2023 $20 puts – talk about free money!  

    LTP:

    SPWR Long Call 2023 20-JAN 20.00 CALL [SPWR @ $32.76 $0.19] 75 6/18/2021 (443) $75,000 $10.00 $5.08 $10.00     $15.08 $0.16 $38,063 50.8% $113,063
    SPWR Short Call 2023 20-JAN 35.00 CALL [SPWR @ $32.76 $0.19] -75 6/18/2021 (443) $-37,500 $5.00 $2.63     $7.63 $-0.28 $-19,688 -52.5% $-57,188
    SPWR Short Put 2023 20-JAN 25.00 PUT [SPWR @ $32.76 $0.19] -30 6/18/2021 (443) $-21,750 $7.25 $-2.80     $4.45 $0.05 $8,400 38.6% $-13,350

    Here we have a $112,500 spread – essentially the same one, at net $42,525 so the upside if SPWR can make it to $35 over the next 12 months is $69,975 (164%) – not a bad ROI.  

    Money Talk:  

    SPWR Long Call 2023 20-JAN 15.00 CALL [SPWR @ $32.76 $0.19] 15 5/11/2021 (443) $13,875 $9.25 $9.48 $9.25     $18.73 - $14,213 102.4% $28,088
    SPWR Short Call 2023 20-JAN 25.00 CALL [SPWR @ $32.76 $0.19] -15 5/11/2021 (443) $-8,250 $5.50 $6.55     $12.05 $0.05 $-9,825 -119.1% $-18,075
    SPWR Short Put 2023 20-JAN 20.00 PUT [SPWR @ $32.76 $0.19] -5 5/12/2021 (443) $-3,000 $6.00 $-3.48     $2.53 $-0.06 $1,738 57.9% $-1,263

    I am sad we can't add to this (we only make changes on TV).  This is a $15,000 spread that's 100% in the money at $8,750 so there's no reason to take it off but I'd add another leg if I could.

    The leg I would add since the MTP is up 107% and has $167,589 out of $207,249 in cash is as follows:

    • Sell 10 SPWR 2024 $25 puts for $6.25 ($6,250) 
    • Buy 25 SPWR 2024 $30 calls for $12 ($30,000)
    • Sell 25 SPWR 2024 $40 calls for $9.25 ($23,125) 

    That's net $625 on the $25,000 spread so $24,375 (3,900%) upside potential at $40 and our worst case is owning 1,000 shares at $25.625/share, which is 22% below the current price.  When you REALLY want the worst-case to happen – it's a good spread!  This is too good not to take so let's put it in the Earnings Portfolio!    

    Why so aggressive on this one (usually we go a bit more in the money)?  Because I like the no-cost trade ahead of earnings and it will be cheap to roll the long calls lower (the $25s are now $14.50, the $20s are $16.75) so we're just keeping the money on the side for a rainy day.  If SPWR pops, we'll just have to be content making 3,900% in two years.  

    Oops, Webinar time


  14. Sorry, webinar will start a little late, maybe 1:10.  I had to reboot that computer.


  15. Webinar will start very soon. Please stay connected


  16. Phil, Yodi re EPD

    Thanks for the add'l thoughts counselling patience and allowing EPD to find a bottom (20ish perhaps). Problem may be a gap in my computer feed yesterday. I saw the morning Top Trade review discussion of EPD from 10/1/2020 but nothing else. I posted the above EPD question @ 3:28 yesterday but then received no posts from 3:33 until 11:47.  Tech support issue, I assume.

    The confusion I have is I can't find any fundamental reason why EPD dropped from 24.76 on 10/20 to 22 today whereas its MLP bunkmate has been making new highs.

    Yodi: 'plummet' – maybe just semantics, a 10% drop in a week is a plummet, especially when similar stocks are heading up.

    Thanks


  17. Andy,

    Any idea why my feed went dark from approx 3:30 to11:47 yesterday? Do I need to refresh, reboot, uninstall/install anything? Please advise.

    To discuss, 770/321-5493.

    Thanks


  18. Big pop off Powell's comments that he can't see any inflation but he does see a lot of unemployment so the Fed has to keep giving free money to rich people for as long as possible.

       

    I love how this is not considered volatile:

    Japan is super-happy:

     

  19. Andy,

    Any idea why my feed went dark from approx 3:30 to11:47 yesterday? Do I need to refresh, reboot, uninstall/install anything? Please advise.

    To discuss, 770/321-5493.

    Thanks

     

    I don't know. It seems to be one off as I haven't heard of any other outages. Please let me know if it happens again. Feel free to email me - andy@philstocksworld.com


  20. Would be better if Andy knew it was @philstockworld.com  cool


  21. Phil / QCOM – blow out quarter and outlooked 20% growth for next year….. puts them at an EPS of 10.3 ish for nest year….  Plus they are growing the non headset business at a high rate….   Do you think they could get to a 18 to 20 multiple?


  22. Phil /. QCOM - the transition to the internal based is expected to start in calendar 2023 iPhone models.   This may be a transition on an iPad for then on iPhone so maybe a 24 full transition …   either way it will hold these shares back


  23. Phil / SPWR –  Earnings was mixed at best…..   and outlook was weak on addition they are taking down next years outlook by about 20 %  - although you need a cipher key to detect it.  I'm surprised they are not down more….. I listened to the concalll…  they new guy running this is taking the company more to financing and possibly lower end pricing…  I think this may be a significant change that craters them….  Also they own about 6.5 Million enphase shares from the '18 inverter sale….  this is arbor $1.4B….  


  24. Here is the link to the replay of this week's webinar