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Which Way Wednesday – Toppy or Just Getting Started?

16,325!  

That's where the Nasdaq is this morning and, just a week ago, we were wondering if they could hold 16,000.  325 additional points is up over 2% for the week and the Nasdaq is up 1,850 points (12.7%) since October 1st and up 3,500 points (27%) for the year.  Now, I'm not going to tell you a 27% annual rally is unsustainable – I'm just going to tell you that people who say it is sustainable are idiots…  Why?  Math.

To demonstrate – use this link and make the "Initial Deposit" $10,000 and let's say that's your Nasdaq Portfolio.  Now set "Contributions" to $0 – let's say you don't add anything to it and don't collect dividends.  The "Investment Time Span is 5 years – we'll leave that for now.  Then set the "Estimated Rate of Return" to 27%, compounded annually.  The chart on the right shows you have $33,039 after just 5 years – up 230%.  

Now change it to 10 years and you have $109,154 and 20 years is $1.19M and 30 years is $13M – see how easy it is to retire wealthy – just put $10,000 in the Nasdaq today and you're a rich man in 30 years!  Even better, put $100,000 away today and you'll have $130M in 2052. 

Now, you KNOW that makes no sense because everyone would have hundreds of Millions of Dollars and money would be worthless.  But, if you KNOW that is impossible – then why assume these market gains are sustainable when, MATHEMATICALLY, they are not.  

If you are in a market that is experiencing unsustainable gains then, at some point – IT WILL CORRECT.  A correction is NOT a pullback – a correction is a move towards a CORRECT level that IS sustainable.  Historically, that has been 8% annual growth.  

From 2000 until 2010 the Nasdaq was below the 2,500 line and it hit 5,000 (again) in 2015 but, if we use 2010 as a base and give 5,000 points 8% growth for 12 years – we get to 13,058 – THAT is trend growth for the Nasdaq and we're 25% over that.  Perhaps give us 10% for inflation and the rest is stimulus but none of that is deserved or sustainable though inflation can keep the party going for quite a while as stock prices do tend to keep up with inflation.

Another way to look at the Nasdaq's true value is to look at the P/E ratio, which had exploded to 37.69 as of June – but that was 10% ago – at 14,554.  Unless Q3 earnings have jumped up considerably (they haven't), then we're probably payinig around 40 time earnings for the average Nasdaq stock – 60% more than we paid in 2018.  

Now that's inflation!  

Inflated prices are one thing but, when they are not backed by inflated earnings you are simply setting yourself up for a massive correction.  40x earnins means you are getting an effective 2.5% rate of return on your stock purchases and, because Banks are paying you less than 1% on cash and Bonds are paying you 2% and people are still scared to put money into housing – stocks remain an attractive alternative.   You have to watch what these alternative investments are paying to get an idea of when the market might stop attracting money.  That's why the Smart Money People fear Fed hikes – it makes the Bond alternative more attractive.  

In any event, at 40x earnings, we are certainly coming near to the end of the run so I do urge caution.  We bumped up our hedges in yesterday's Short-Term Portfolio Review and we are being extremely selective with our long positions while remaining at least 2/3 in CASH!!! – just in case the bottom does fall out faster than we think.  

Be careful out there.

 


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  1. Good morning!  

    Not too much going on this morning but, if you think this is slow – wait until next week!

    • Lowe's CEO Marvin Ellison said Wednesday that the company's Street-beating quarterly earnings were fueled by favorable trends in the housing market, factors that will continue to drive demand going forward.
    • "Demand continues to stay strong," the top executive at Lowe's (NYSE:LOW) told CNBC, adding that checks with its customers indicate that the backlog of home improvement projects remains "as robust as they've seen it in many years."
    • Before the opening bell Wednesday, Lowe's (LOW) reported a quarterly profit that beat expectations by nearly 17%. This came as revenue rose 3% from last year to reach $22.9B, topping the consensus by nearly $1B.
    • In explaining the results, Ellison pointed to macro factors impacting the housing market, including a lack of homes to meet the current demand, low interest rates and healthy consumer balance sheets, leading to high disposable income.
    • In addition, the Lowe's CEO noted that the current housing stock in the U.S. is aging, leading to the need for upgrades.
    • The better-than-expected results from LOW followed a similarly strong report from rival Home Depot (NYSE:HD) the previous day. HD also exceeded projections on both its top and bottom lines, with revenue that climbed nearly 10% from last year.
    • LOW rose nearly 4% in pre-market trading following the release of its quarterly report. This added to a more-than-4% gain posted the previous session, as the stock reacted to HD's results.
    • LOW has been rising steadily since early October. The stock set a new 52-week high on Tuesday and is poised to extend that peak during Wednesday's trading.
    • Comparing LOW and HD over the past year shows that the competitors have largely tracked each other during that time. LOW has outpaced its rival, rising about 51%. HD has climbed about 40%.
    • Both have performed better than the overall market, with the S&P 500 climbing about 32% over the past year:

    IGT -3.35%Nov. 17, 2021 9:19 AM ET

    • International Game Technology (NYSE:IGT) shares fall as Jefferies downgrades the stock to Hold from Buy citing valuation.
    • "Our change in rating is based on the current valuation and post the analyst meeting, the absence of meaningful catalysts to drive the shares higher," write analysts led by David Katz. They add that they are not concerned with management execution but that the potential upside is limited based on provided guidance.
    • Jefferies is intrigued by the prospect of a potential digital gaming spin-off but says that its addition to total value would be "relatively modest."
    • Shares are down 2.06% in the pre-market.
    • The firm lowers the price target on IGT to $33 from $38. The average price target for the stock is $38.

    MT +0.92%Nov. 17, 2021 8:49 AM ET2 Comments

    • ArcelorMittal (NYSE:MT) says it completed its fourth stock buyback program of the year and will start a new $1B buyback program, to be completed by February 2022.
    • ArcelorMittal says it had repurchased more than 67M shares by Tuesday's market close for a total value of ~€1.88B ($2.2B) at an average price of €27.91/share.
    • The company says the move brings the total advance as part of its prospective 2022 capital return to shareholders to $2B.
    • ArcelorMittal recently reported Q3 EBITDA surged 6x from the year-ago quarter to $6B.

    TGT -4.37%Nov. 17, 2021 8:46 AM ET4 Comments

    • Target (NYSE:TGT) is now down 4.36% in premarket trading despite topping sales and EPS estimates with its Q3 report.
    • Morgan Stanley analyst Simeon Gutman notes TGT's gross margin contracted 255 bps and missed consensus by 185 bps.
    • "This was primarily due to higher merchandise and freight costs, shrink,and labor/compensation, combined with a desire to keep pricing competitive. Based on our conversations intra-quarter, we believe investors were looking for TGT to buck the trend of gross margin contraction that many apparel and specialty retailers have experienced and be a relative standout among Broadline companies."
    • Target execs have stated in media interviews that holding the line on pricing is important to the retailer.
    • Shares of Target (TGT) are still above their 50-day, 100-day and 200-day moving averages.


  2. Good morning everyone! As we come to the close of another year, we are working feverishly to update our servers and our website. It is a huge undertaking with many many moving pieces. The organic nature of this update will result in an uptick of subscribers and a restructuring of pricing. Everyone who is in prior to the update will be grandfathered in to the same pricing that you enjoy now. 

    That being said, we are encouraging you to invite those people who you believe might enjoy and benefit from a PSW Premium membership to get in at today's pricing before the end of the year. For doing so, we will credit you $500 for every new person you refer, who joins as a  Premium member between now and 12/31/2021. Consider it a little holiday gift. Simply direct them to the site and the "Become a member" section. After they have signed up, send me an email to andy@philstockworld.com with their name and email address and I will credit you the $500. There are no refunds for cancelling memberships at any time.

    Here is the link to today's webinar. You may share it with any potential referrals.

    https://attendee.gotowebinar.com/register/8780891593554972684


  3. Nov. 17, 2021 8:31 AM ET

    • October Housing Starts-0.7% M/M to 1.520M vs. 1.587M expected and 1.530M prior (revised from 1.555M).
    • On a Y/Y basis, housing starts increased 0.4%.
    • Single-family  housing starts in October were at rate of 1.039M, 3.9% lower than the revised September figure of 1.081M.
    • Building permits: +4.0% to 1.650M vs. 1.630M expected and 1.586M prior (revised from 1.589M).
    • On a Y/Y basis, building permits increased 3.4%.
    • Single-family authorizations, at a rate of 1.069M, is 2.7% above September's revised number of 1.041M.
    • Earlier, Mortgage applications fall as interest rates rebound

    FUN +1.67%Nov. 17, 2021 8:17 AM ET2 Comments

    • Deutsche Bank starts off coverage on Cedar Fair (NYSE:FUN) with a Buy rating and calls the theme park stock a favorably positioned way for investors to gain exposure to a strong consumer.
    • The firm says it views FUN as a best in class operator and points to what it sees as a stable, experienced management team as a key point of differentiation in the theme park space.
    • "We also believe the company will return to providing a meaningful dividend yield by 2023, which would also give FUN another degree of separation compared to the peer group. A bit further out, we are intrigued by the possibilities around FUN's ability to capture a share of the e-sports market via a potential arena exclusively dedicated to e-sports on the site of the Cedar Point Sports Center. With attractive relative valuation, a bullish outlook for top-line trends heading into the 2022 season, and our view that there remains considerable room for growth on both admissions and in-park (ancillary) pricing."
    • DB lines up a price target of $66 on Cedar Fair (FUN) to rep more than 40% upside potential. Shares of FUN are up 1.33% in premarket action and are back over the 50-day, 100-day and 200-day moving averages.

    I think I agree with this one as they are only at $2.66Bn at $46.75 and they are good for $200M/yr in profits so reasonably priced going forward,  I think $66 is too aggressive but we don't care, as long as we can play the stock not to go down.  There are no 2024 options yet but, for the Dividend Portfolio, let's sell 10 of the FUN 2023 $40 puts for $4 ($4,000) as that will be a nice net $36 entry and hopefully they do go back to paying dividends but, if not, we'll make our own by selling short calls.  

    CGC -2.16%Nov. 17, 2021 7:45 AM ET1 Comment

    • Canopy Growth (NASDAQ:CGC) unveils a new lineup of premium flower offerings across its 7ACRES, 7ACRES Craft Collective and DOJA brands, including a range of national and limited-edition craft strains.
    • 7ACRES Lineup: Expanding on the successful 7ACRES portfolio, the Company is pleased to unveil two new national strains – 7ACRES Wappa 49 and 7ACRES Papaya – grown in the Company's state-of-the-art hybrid-greenhouse cultivation facility in Kincardine, Ontario and now available in 7 gram formats.
    • 7ACRES Craft Collective Lineup: This brand continues to bring new craft offerings to market, including the recently launched 7ACRES Craft Collective Jet Fuel Cookies – a limited-edition strain known for its sweet fuel-forward aroma that is grown in British Columbia, and available in Prince Edward Island and Ontario while quantities last.
    • DOJA Lineup: In tandem, two new national strains – DOJA 91K and DOJA Sour Kush – are now available under the DOJA brand.
    • As part of DOJA's small-batch, craft program, five new limited-edition strains are available in 3.5 gram formats while quantities last, including: DOJA Crescendo, DOJA Cali Kush Cake, DOJA Black Cherry Punch, DOJA Sour Glue and DOJA GMO Garlic Breath.

    It's a whole new world…


  4. Good Morning.


  5. Phil,

    when you look at the current P/E valuations, shouldn't you take into account the increased liquidity from stimulus compared to historical valuations ?

    With more money available and no where else to go, maybe we should expect higher P/E for no other reason.

    Thanks


  6. P/Es/Gard – Yes, I mentioned that above "Perhaps give us 10% for inflation and the rest is stimulus."  Neither of those things are likely to be permanent so, eventually, correction!  Your logic leads to a worse conclusion because the price is 40 times the STIMULATED earnings so, if earnings are $12 and P/E is 40, then stock is $480 but if stimulus is removed and earnings are $10 and people go back to paying 25x earnings – then $250 is more like the right price.  That's what we mean by UNSUSTAINABLE.   There's no long-term reality to the earnings that will support that stock price.

    That's the P/E chart for the S&P 500 – not any better than the Nasdaq.  Note the spike in 2008 was caused by the total collapse in profits more so than rising stock prices.  The current p/e spike is rising equity prices without rising profits – more like 1999 than 2007.  In 2007, banks were flat-out lying about their earnings which distorted profits and also drove profits for builders and material companies (since they were part of the falsely-reported transactions) and it all reversed in a dramatic and ugly fashion.  That's not what this is – nor is it the dot.com bubble where completely worthless stocks are getting 1,000x valuations but we are giving ridiculous valuations to stocks without merit and 40x earnings is more a function of low rates (no alternative) than anything else so the real bet is how long can the Fed keep this up without consequences?  


  7. any thought on media talk of biden and china president releasing strategic reserves of oil. and of oil down on pretty big net draw


  8. Oil down a bit but not too much.  Release of SPR trumps this news:

    USL -1.46%Nov. 17, 2021 10:30 AM ET17 Comments

        

    /NG is a good long over the $4.92 line with stops below $4.90.  


  9. Nov. 17, 2021 11:47 AM ET

    • First Eagle Investment Management argued in a letter to investors that changing Federal Reserve policy and rising tensions with China require a cautious approach to the markets, including a heavy investment in gold.
    • "We believe this is clearly a time for prudent investing," the firm said in a fund letter released this month.
    • To offset rising risks in the stock market, First Eagle suggests a higher allocation in gold and gold-related stocks.
    • Acknowledging that gold prices saw weakness earlier this year, First Eagle contended that the reduced cost only increased the yellow metal's value as a hedge.
    • "Despite the headwinds that gold has faced, we remain confident in its value as a potential hedge," the fund said.
    • "In fact, we believe gold currently appears to be a value version of itself given its price relative to other investment options," it added.
    • As a result, First Eagle prefers gold to other investment choices like real estate, Bitcoin (BTC-USD) or growth equities.
    • Explaining its cautious view, the firm underlined the risks of rising interest rates, as the Fed turns more hawkish in the face of inflation.
    • "While the impact [a more hawkish Fed] would have on global markets remains to be seen, our experience over the past decade-plus suggests caution is warranted," the fund surmised.
    • For more on gold and how it stacks up against other potential inflation hedges, see why analyst Peter Boockvar believes that Bitcoin investors and gold bugs are "soulmates."

    SPY -0.32%Nov. 17, 2021 11:15 AM ET1 Comment

    • Two streaks were broken last week. The S&P 500 (SP500) (NYSEARCA:SPY) closed lower for the first time in five weeks and BofA Securities clients were net buyers of stocks for the first time in six weeks.
    • Net buying came in at $1.2B.
    • Institutional clients were the big buyers, while hedge funds and retail sold.
    • Six of 11 sectors saw inflows, with Energy (NYSEARCA:XLE) seeing the biggest inflows ever.
    • Energy was followed by Financials (NYSEARCA:XLF) and Consumer Discretionary (NYSEARCA:XLY). Info Tech (NYSEARCA:XLK) and Industrials (NYSEARCA:XLI) had the biggest outflows.
    • "Clients have bought Energy stocks most weeks since July, but fund positioning (as of the last month) is still very underweight," BofA strategists Jill Carey Hall and Savita Subramanian write in a note. "We see more room to run and note Energy fits several key themes (inflation protected yield, ESG improver)."
    • "While Financials inflows were buyback-driven, buying of Energy stocks was the largest in our data history (since ’08) and broad-based across institutional clients, hedge funds, retail clients and corporates," they say.
    • "Most sector ETFs saw inflows," they add. "But clients are picking stocks over investing passively in Energy: Energy ETFs have seen outflows for five of the last six weeks. Energy was the only sector besides Tech to see ETF outflows last week (but ETF outflows were more than offset by record Energy stock inflows)."
    • Energy stocks just had their worst week in two months as oil prices fell.

    UGA -2.16%Nov. 17, 2021 10:57 AM ET54 Comments

    • President Biden has asked the Federal Trade Commission to probe possible criminal conduct in U.S. gasoline markets, Bloomberg reports.
    • "I do not accept hard-working Americans paying more for gas because of anti-competitive or otherwise potentially illegal conduct," Biden reportedly said in a letter to FTC Chair Lina Khan, pointing to "mounting evidence of anti-consumer behavior by oil and gas companies."
    • The FTC should "further examine what is happening with oil and gas markets, and that you bring all of the commission's tools to bear if you uncover any wrongdoing."
    • ETFs: UGAUSOXLE
    • Biden wrote to Khan amid the worst U.S. inflation in 30 years; the October consumer price index jumped 6.2% Y/Y, with gasoline prices surging nearly 50%.
    TGT -5.00%Nov. 17, 2021 10:37 AM ET3 Comments

    • Target CEO Brian Cornell reported Wednesday that he is "anticipating a really strong holiday season," as the company looks to manage robust demand in the face of supply chain issues and inflationary pressures.
    • Speaking to CNBC, the top executive at Target (NYSE:TGT) noted that the company has made significant investments to bypass supply chain bottlenecks and ensure adequate inventory for the upcoming holiday.
    • Cornell's comments followed the release of better-than-expected quarterly results released before the opening bell. Target (TGT) reported earnings that topped expectations on revenue that rose 13% from last year. This included 29% growth in digital comparable sales.
    • Despite the strong headline numbers, TGT dropped about 5% in Wednesday's early trading, as higher costs squeezed margins and investors booked profits after the company surged to a 52-week high ahead of the earnings release.
    • Asked about margins, Cornell argued that the company's best strategy revolved around providing value for its customers, even with increasing costs.
    • "We want to make sure we continue to reinforce our value position and during inflationary times, we're going to make sure the consumer is coming to Target knowing we're going to provide great value," he said.
    • Cornell added that this is part of its strategy of expanding market share.
    • In terms of staffing, Cornell said the company was "right on track" in terms of hiring seasonal workers. He noted that TGT had also taken steps to retain workers during the COVID dislocations.
    • Beyond the holidays, the Target CEO reported that the retailer was still gauging what 2022 will look like in terms of consumer behavior. However, he asserted that the company will continue to focus on growth next year.
    • "I think we are going to continue to be a growth company for years to come. And we'll be a company that continues to invest in its team and make sure we are a company that continues to grow market share for years to come," he said.
    • TGT dropped $13.19 to $253.20 at about 10:15 AM ET. This took the stock off a 52-week high of $268.98 reached earlier this week.
    • TGT's stock performance has dramatically outpaced rival Walmart (NYSE:WMT) over the past year. The stock has climbed about 61% over the past 12 months, while WMT has slipped 6%.
    • Meanwhile, the S&P 500 has climbed about 32% over the last year:

    UNG -4.74%Nov. 17, 2021 10:31 AM ET15 Comments

    • The price of natural gas surged again in Europe to the highest since mid-October after a delay in the approval process for the Nord Stream 2 pipeline sparks concerns about securing enough gas for the winter.
    • The price of gas next month for the European benchmark in the Netherlands jumped 8% to hit €101.30/MWh, the highest for a most-active contract since October 18, after soaring 18% on Tuesday.
    • ETFs: UNGUGAZFDGAZBOILFCGKOLDUNLGAZ
    • According to Bloomberg, the Kremlin said Gazprom (OTCPK:OGZPY) will meet its contractual obligations, but that any extra shipments on existing routes will depend on requests from European clients and the company's "readiness" to fulfill them.
    • "The timeline for the start of the pipe now appears longer than what we initially expected," Goldman Sachs analysts say, adding they now expect it will not be up and running until February.
    • Pending the formation of a local subsidiary for the section of the pipeline in the country, Germany's energy regulator yesterday suspended the Nord Stream 2 certification process.

    UBER -3.21%Nov. 17, 2021 10:31 AM ET11 Comments

    • Uber (NYSE:UBER) is unveiling a new membership program that offers guaranteed prices and other perks in an effort to appeal to consumers who are frequent users of its ride-sharing and delivery services.
    • On Wednesday, Uber (UBERgave details of its new Uber One program, which is launching immediately in the U.S. The membership costs either $9.99 a month, or $99.99 for an entire year if paid all at once. To stir up initial interest in Uber One, the company is offering a sort-of Black Friday deal for $49.99 for the first year if a customer signs up between Wednesday and Nov. 29. Signups can be made within either the Uber or Uber Eats apps.
    • "We want our customers to experience firsthand how Uber can make their every day more effortless," said Awaneesh Verma, Uber's (UBER) head of memberships, in announcing the Uber One program.
    • The features of Uber One include guaranteed member pricing, with 5% off of eligible rides and deliveries of food, groceries, alcohol and other items. Members also get unlimited free delivery on Uber Eats orders of at least $15, and on grocery orders costing at least $30. Riders will also get priority service with top-rated Uber drivers and elevated member support services.
    • Uber (UBER) will also provide Uber One members with $5 in Uber Cash on eligible deliveries if the Uber's "Latest Arrival" estimate is incorrect, and access to special offers, promotions, and invitation-only activities.
    • On Tuesday, Uber Chief Executive Dara Khosrowshahi disclosed that he recently bought 200,000 shares of the company's stock.

    Nov. 17, 2021 10:17 AM ET1 Comment

    • Treasury and related markets experienced "three abrupt and notable disruptions, each of increasing severity" in the past decade, said New York Fed President John Williams in comments made at the NY Fed's virtual 2021 U.S. Treasury Market Conference.
    • Those disruptions provide "a stark reminder that these markets are not nearly as resilient as they should be," he said.
    • "A well-functioning U.S. Treasury market is critically important for our economy and, in fact, the entire world," he said. "It enables the safe and stable flow of capital and credit to households, businesses, and governments."
    • The three disruptions were the so-called flash rally of October 2014, the repo market distress in September 2019, and the dislocations caused by the COVID-19 pandemic in March 2020.
    • Speaking about the pandemic disruption, "the incipient breakdown in market functioning quickly spread to other segments of the U.S. and global financial markets, risking a broad-based pullback in the availability of credit that is essential for our economy."
    • To deal with the disruption, which nearly froze the Treasury and funding markets in March 2020, the Federal Reserve offered overnight repos of up to $1T and made large-scale purchases of Treasury securities and agency mortgage-backed securities to support the functioning of those markets.
    • "The pace and amount of asset purchases during this period was unmatched," he said, noting that at the worst point of the crisis, the Fed was purchasing more than $300B of Treasurys per week.
    • The Inter-Agency Working Group for Treasury Market Surveillance examined the disruptions and issued a report identifying steps to strengthen markets' functioning and resilience. "The IAWG's No.1 principle and No. 1 workstream center around market resilience," Williams said. "I think it's safe to say that strengthening resilience is at the top of everyone's Treasury reform list."
    • The reassessment of the markets and their weaknesses is required as technology changes. For example, he discussed the growth of electronic trading and how it has changed the mix of intermediaries and trading practices.
    • "When the Treasury  market breaks down, when trading is disrupted, or when interest rates move in ways that are not based on fundamentals, the ripple effects can be swift — and devastating to the flow of credit to businesses and households," Williams said.
    • He said it's important that agencies work together to boost resilience of the Treasury market. "It's also clear that we need not start from a position of how things are, but instead, how they should be. Let's not think of how we can reform, but how we can design."
    • Recall that earlier this month, the Fed announced that it's starting to reduce its purchases of Treasury securities and MBS.

     

     

     

     


  10. PTON -5.58%Nov. 17, 2021 10:05 AM ET7 Comments

    • Peloton Interactive (NASDAQ:PTON) is down 5.27% in early trading to give back much of yesterday's gain that was attributed to some relief over the company's capital raise being quantified.
    • Some traders think the pricing of the follow-on offering is the next hurdle to clear before the direction of the stock becomes clearer.
    • Ahead of the holiday season, Peloton's website is showing some reduced prices.
    • The Seeking Alpha Quant Rating flipped to Very Bearish from Bearish on November 10 after the company's growth grade was lowered.

    PAG -11.85%Nov. 17, 2021 9:48 AM ET8 Comments

    • Morgan Stanley downgrades its outlook on franchise automotive dealers as Q3 results overall surpassed consensus but the long-term dealer outlook remains uncertain.
    • "Exiting COVID, we believe improved cost structures are discounted in dealer share prices, while long term risks from EVs and direct-to-consumer models are not," write analysts led by Adam Jonas.
    • The firm is concerned that no start-up EV firms appear to use or plan to use the traditional franchise dealer model. Morgan Stanley currently does not rate any US franchise dealers as Overweight.
    • Morgan Stanley downgrades both Penske Automotive Group (PAG -10.1%) and Sonic Automotive (SAH -8.2%) to Underweight from Equal-weight and lowers the price target on franchise dealers by an average of 12%.
    • Price targets decreased: Penske Automotive (NYSE:PAG) - $90 from $98; Sonic Automotive (NYSE:SAH) - $40 from $55; Group 1 Automotive (GPI -6.2%) – $200 from $206; Lithia Motors (LAD -3.1%) – $303 from $335; Asbury Automotive (ABG -4.2%) – $180 from $205; AutoNation (AN -5.1%) – $103 from $116.
    • See which other stocks are moving and find out why with Seeking Alpha's "On the Move" page here.

    MRNA +4.09%Nov. 17, 2021 9:40 AM ET45 Comments

    • The Biden administration is set to invest billions of dollars to expand manufacturing of COVID-19 vaccines as a way to increase the number of doses sent to poorer nations, The Washington Post reports.
    • The newspaper says that the funding will assist companies producing mRNA vaccines — Pfizer (PFE +0.4%) and Moderna (MRNA +0.5%) — through investment in facilities, equipment, staff and training.
    • The White House's goal is the manufacture of at least 1B doses annually.
    • David Kessler, the White House's chief science officer overseeing vaccine distribution, said the effort is also designed for future pandemics.
    • "This partnership will be used for Covid and any future pandemic viruses with the goal of having enough vaccines available within six to nine months of the identification of the virus."
    • Last month, a Biden administration official reiterated support for COVID-19 IP vaccine waivers.
    VIAC -0.83%Nov. 17, 2021 9:24 AM ET32 Comments

    • CBS (VIACVIACA) is selling its historic CBS Studio Center in Los Angeles for $1.8 billion to a pair of real-estate firms, taking advantage of a hot entertainment property market, The Wall Street Journal reports.
    • ViacomCBS is higher premarket (VIAC +0.7%).
    • Hackman Capital Partners and Square Mile Capital Management prevailed over about a dozen suitors, WSJ says, with a bid about $500 million more than CBS had expected going in.
    • Hackman Capital was also in on the 2019 CBS sale of its Television City complex for $750 million.
    • The CBS Studio Center complex, known locally as CBS Radford, has played host to productions dating to the silent picture era and running through TV series including Gilligan's Island, Seinfeld and Brooklyn Nine-Nine.
    • Production space has become a hot commodity in a market fueled by voracious streaming companies – including Netflix (NASDAQ:NFLX), Amazon Prime Video (NASDAQ:AMZN), Apple TV+ (NASDAQ:AAPL), Disney Plus (NYSE:DIS) and Hulu (DISCMCSA) – competing over subscribers by generating huge quantities of new content.
    • CBS had put the stages up for sale in August. And the move follows on its selling CBS headquarters in Manhattan for $760 million

    BA -0.15%Nov. 17, 2021 9:24 AM ET

    • Boeing (NYSE:BA) +1.6% pre-market trading after Wells Fargo upgrades shares to Overweight from Equal Weight with a $272 price target, raised from $224, saying the risk-reward is now skewed positive after the stock has lagged the S&P 500 by 30% since its March high.
    • Wells analyst Matthew Akers believes Boeing likely will benefit from 737 MAX recertification in China, the resumption of 787 Dreamliner deliveries, higher fuel driving more aircraft retirements, and easing international travel restrictions.
    • Akers sees limited downside for the stock from current levels, as Boeing has de-risked 2022 delivery expectations and is less susceptible to supply chain disruption given its large inventory of completed aircraft.
    • Separately, Seaport Global reiterated its Buy rating on Boeing with a $298 price target, saying "the general trend is that the worst is likely behind."

    There's one I can get behind.  At $224.84, BA is at $132.7Bn yet, in 2018, they made $10.5Bn.  They lost $12Bn (total) in 2019 & 20 and another $1Bn this year but next year they project $3.2Bn and back to "normal" in years to follow.  They COULD go lower but $100 is the bet the farm price and we can sell 5 BA 2024 $200 puts for $30 in the LTP and collect $15,000 for promising to buy 500 shares for net $170 – so that's a very good way to remind ourselves to keep an eye on them.



  11. Phil,

    from Webinar, take a look at WDC and ATVI.

    Thanks


  12. I will get around to it, burned out at the moment.  


  13. Phil, a little late for todays webinar but is there anything you like for next week to take advantage of light trading and the short week.  This would be an 

    UNOFFICIAL trade, of course.  I dont mind some risk using some fun money.  



  14. Apple To Start Letting People Fix Their Own IPhones





  15. Here is the link to replay of this week's webinar

    https://youtu.be/TfwD9zwl6wY