When Donald Trump announced his Liberation Day tariffs on April 2, many economists declared that the economy was headed for stagflation, with a number outright predicting recession. Looking back over my own posts, I was a bit more cautious. Specifically, I had and have no doubts about the flation aspect, but was less sure about the stag.
At this point, however, the data really are looking increasingly stagflationary. And I thought it might be useful to talk about why the lights on the economic dashboard are flashing yellow or red.
