War, Peace & Earnings (4/22/2026)
Trump says one thing: oil prices say another. Let's look at the facts rather than fiction.
Timeline
0:00 – Market Setup & Energy Dashboard
3:50 – War, Peace, and Earnings Framework
7:00 – Media Narratives vs. Market Reality
10:50 – Oil Supply Shock & Structural Shortage
16:50 – Refining Constraints & Jet Fuel Crisis
23:20 – Energy System Breakdown (Oil, Gas, Shipping)
28:00 – Market Disconnect (Stocks vs. Reality)
29:30 – AI Boom vs. Energy Constraints
36:30 – Inflation Shock & Consumer Impact
38:00 – Airline Crisis & Jet Fuel Shortage
42:00 – Helium Shortage & Semiconductor Risk
45:00 – Fed Policy, Politics, and Rates
53:20 – Stocks & Sector Positioning
54:30 – Market Technicals & Downside Risk
56:40 – Key Upcoming Catalysts
1:07:00 – Portfolio Risk & Oil as War Indicator
1:15:00 – Options Strategy & Trade Structuring
1:20:00 – Airline Risk Deep Dive
1:24:00 – Macro Framework: Narrative vs. Reality
1:26:00 – Fed Update & Inflation Outlook
1:30:00 – Portfolio Management & Adjustments
1:40:00 – Risk Management for Smaller Accounts
1:48:00 – Closing: Discipline Over Narrative
Transcript
Phil's Weekly Webinar — War, Peace & Earnings
All right, so today we were going to talk about war and peace and earnings. We don't really have a lot of earnings data so far, but let's talk about that.
So let's start with today's post. We used the Round Table Consulting Group — which is the combination output I get when I engage the consulting group. It gives me a summary of everything they have to say on a subject. When you see the brain symbol, it's the combined voice of the AGI Round Table, not the individuals. I like using the individuals in chat because it's interesting to see what each one has to say from their own perspective.
