Data, Earnings and the Fed (4/29/2026)
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Timeline
0:00 — Opening market update
2:00 — OpenAI market share collapse
9:40 — AI as a democratic/competitive marketplace
14:14 — The $1.4 trillion spending promise diagram
17:36 — The "circle jerk economy" explained
30:00 — Sora shutdown and AI video resource problem
36:00 — Why AI is not a software business
44:18 — Member questions
48:19 — OpenAI IPO risks and house of cards scenario
58:17 — Fed decision and rate update
1:04:17 — US debt crisis and rising interest burden
1:26:28 — Powell's press conference and farewell
1:35:28 — Blue Owl trade breakdown
1:43:58 — AI hallucination and teaching AIs to sanity-check data
1:54:40 — Closing market thoughts and wrap-up
Transcript
Opening Market Update
Oil is at $107 and keeps climbing — up another dollar since last check. Gasoline is at $3.60, natural gas around $2.60. The NASDAQ is barely green, the S&P is down 0.3%, and the Dow is flat. SoFi had a big selloff today, going back to its recent lows, but someone will likely step in and start buying down there again. Owl, which we just picked up, is slightly negative, but again, I'm confident buyers will come in on that one too.
OpenAI's Market Share Problem
Things started turning south yesterday when we pointed out something we've been saying for a while — OpenAI is about to go public, which means they now have to publish their results and be under heavy scrutiny. When you're still private and miss earnings, nobody knows about it. But heading into a public offering, everything has to be front and center. And what's front and center turns out to be not very good for OpenAI, whose market share is collapsing.
