Posts Tagged ‘agriculture’

Ag Plays – The Beans or the Business?

Ag Plays – The Beans or the Business?

Courtesy of Joshua M Brown, The Reformed Broker 

Ag Plays

Farmer Brown here again.  One of my key longer-term themes for growth investing is and has been the Agriculture Play for a few years now.  The global demographics, while seemingly moving at a glacial pace to the short-term thinkers, are simply undeniable over the intermediate to longer term.

A recent landmark piece of research from Goldman Sachs suggests that stock market capitalization in emerging countries may grow fivefold over the next 20 years to more than $80 trillion.  Keep in mind that this is the same research department that nailed owning the BRIC country stocks as the Market Call of the Last Decade.

More prosperity reaching the developing world (a majority of the earth’s population) means a historic shift in the world’s diet from simple grains to meats.  The first thing a Third World peasant farmer-turned-industrialist goes upscale on is his food.  And once you go chicken and beef, it’s mighty hard to go back to sprouts. Unless you think that globalization and gentrification will reverse, this shift probably represents the most monumental investing opportunity of our lifetime.

The theme is becoming a well-known one, but now we’ve reached the juncture where we must ask the age old question of "What’s the trade?".  If there was one takeaway from the book The Greatest Trade Ever, it’s that lots of folks saw the housing and mortgage crash coming, but only a few figured out how to express that awareness into a profitable trade.

The Ag Story is every bit as fat a pitch coming down Broadway for investors as the real estate crash was.  The flash food riots that rippled around the globe briefly in early 2008 were likely a mere preamble to something much bigger, but how do we set ourselves up for it?  The considerations here are getting the timing right, owning the correct vehicles, staying perspicacious in the event that the winners start breaking away from the pack early and, finally, having enough bases covered that you don’t nail the theme but miss the upside (also known as mis-expressing the trade).

Gradually, there are three schools of thought emerging on how to play the Ag Trade.  I will give you a brief idea of what they are and then encourage you to do your own research, as…
continue reading


Tags: , , , , , , , , , , , , ,




Hugh Hendry Talks The Geopolitics Of Potash, Grains And Other Scarcities On BBC Newsnight

Hugh Hendry Talks The Geopolitics Of Potash, Grains And Other Scarcities On BBC Newsnight

Courtesy of Tyler Durden at Zero Hedge 

With concerns about surging food prices recently inflamed courtesy of the series of fires in Russia and the halt of grains exports out of the country, several heavy hitters have come out recently to discuss their views. One among them is the man with the best YTD performing macro hedge fund according to Bloomberg, Hugh Hendry, who appeared on BBC’s ever-informative Newsnight to discuss potash, food prices, and other scarce resources.

On whether the world is facing a massive food shortage, Hugh’s conclusion is that as long as Asia does not have a recession, things are ok, otherwise "in due course there would be great pressure on the food supply." As for Potash, Hendry says that China and Canada "hate each other [in the space]. There has been a profound game of roulette – Chinese consumption of Potash is 35% less than used in Western agriculture. At these prices, the Chinese haven’t been consuming in the manner in that they should and they risk an absolute collapse in their yields… China does have a vulnerability in feeding itself which we don’t have because we embrace potash at productive levels."

As for geopolitics, the topic arises of what African quid pro quo demands for having the most arable land should be and sending products over to China. The observation is that Africa’s bargaining position is negligible (those Goldman offices in Ethiopia, protecting the interests of the locals, are oddly missing).

All this and more in the below clip: 


Tags: , , , , , , ,




The Problem with Factory Farms

In the first article, Claire Suddath interviews author David Kirby about his book "Animal Factory: The Looming Threat of Industrial Pig, Dairy, and Poultry Farms to Humans and the Environment."  In the second article below, David Kirby takes on manure and argues its benefits are wildly over-rated. – Ilene  

The Problem with Factory Farms

By Claire Suddath, courtesy of TIME 

Factory Farms - David Kirby interview at TIMEIf you eat meat, the odds are high that you’ve enjoyed a meal made from an animal raised on a factory farm (also known as a CAFO). According to the USDA, 2% of U.S. livestock facilities raise an estimated 40% of all farm animals. This means that pigs, chickens and cows are concentrated in a small number of very large farms. But even if you’re a vegetarian, the health and environmental repercussions of these facilities may affect you. In his book Animal Factory: The Looming Threat of Industrial Pig, Dairy, and Poultry Farms to Humans and the Environment, journalist David Kirby explores the problems of factory farms, from untreated animal waste to polluted waterways. Kirby talks to TIME about large-scale industrial farming, the lack of government oversight and the terrible fate of a North Carolina river.

What exactly is a factory farm?

The industrial model for animal food production first started with the poultry industry. In the 1930s and ’40s, large companies got into the farming business. The companies hire farmers to grow the animals for them. The farmers typically don’t own the animals — the companies do. It’s almost like a sharecropping system. The company tells them exactly how to build the farm, what to grow and what to feed. They manage everything right down to what temperature the barn should be and what day the animals are going to be picked up for slaughter. The farmer can’t even eat his or her own animals. People who grow chickens for Perdue in Maryland have to go down to the market and buy Perdue at the store.

We collectively refer to these facilities as factory farms, but that’s not an official name. The government designation is CAFO, which stands for Concentrated Animal Feeding Operation. Basically, it’s any farm that has 1,000 animal units or more. A beef cow is an animal unit. These animals are kept in pens their entire lives. They’re never outside. They never breathe fresh air. They never see the sun.

What are the health and
continue reading


Tags: , , , , , , , , , , , , ,




 
 
 

Phil's Favorites

Why Easter is called Easter, and other little-known facts about the holiday

Happy Easter Everyone! 

Why Easter is called Easter, and other little-known facts about the holiday

What is the origin of Easter eggs? Katie Morrow, CC BY-NC-ND

Courtesy of Brent Landau, U...



more from Ilene

Zero Hedge

Fragility In The World 2019

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Authored by Apra Sharma via WorldOutOfWhack.com,

Yemen is labelled as the most fragile country by Fragile States Index in 2019. Finland is now the least fragile country.

Source: https://fragilestatesindex.org/

(Highlights from Fragile States Index)

“This year, Yemen claimed the top position for the fi...



more from Tyler

Insider Scoop

Uber To Sell Minority Stake Of Its Autonomous Vehicle Unit To Japanese Consortium

Courtesy of Benzinga.

Uber Technologies is planning to sell a 14 percent stake in its autonomous vehicle unit to existing investor Softbank, Japanese automaker Toyota, and auto parts manufacturer Denso ahead of its much-anticipated initial public offering (IPO), which is expected to happen in May. Though...



http://www.insidercow.com/ more from Insider

Digital Currencies

5 Cryptocurrency Tax Questions To Ask On April 15th

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Authored by David Kemmerer via CoinTelegraph.com,

Depending on what country you live in, your cryptocurrency will be subject to different tax rules. The questions below address implications within the United States, but similar issues arise around the world. As always, check with a local tax professional to assess your own particular tax situation.

...



more from Bitcoin

Chart School

RTT browsing latest..

Courtesy of Read the Ticker.

Please review a collection of WWW browsing results. The information here is delayed by a few months, members get the most recent content.



Date Found: Thursday, 18 October 2018, 05:33:01 PM

Click for popup. Clear your browser cache if image is not showing.


Comment: Why The Stock Market Is Heading For Disaster youtu.be/Gubf0A5pHL0



Date Found: Monday, 29 October 2018, 12:55:07 PM

Click for popup. Clear your browser cache if image is not showing.


Comment: Ross Beaty: We Are Star...



more from Chart School

Kimble Charting Solutions

Silver Bear Market Faces Big Price Support Test!

Courtesy of Chris Kimble.

When silver, gold, and the precious metals industry were red-hot bullish in the 2000’s, investors could do no wrong.

You could buy SILVER at just about any price and it would go higher.

In today’s chart, you can see three large green bullish ascending triangles from the 2000’s that lead to big gains. But that was the bull market before the current bear market.

The tables have turned since the 2011 price top. Silver quickly formed a bearish descending triangle and fell another 50 percent when that broke down. This sent a vicious bear mark...



more from Kimble C.S.

ValueWalk

More Examples Of "Typical Tesla "wise-guy scamminess"

By Jacob Wolinsky. Originally published at ValueWalk.

Stanphyl Capital’s letter to investors for the month of March 2019.

rawpixel / Pixabay

Friends and Fellow Investors:

For March 2019 the fund was up approximately 5.5% net of all fees and expenses. By way of comparison, the S&P 500 was up approximately 1.9% while the Russell 2000 was down approximately 2.1%. Year-to-date 2019 the fund is up approximately 12.8% while the S&P 500 is up approximately 13.6% and the ...



more from ValueWalk

Biotech

Marijuana is a lot more than just THC - a pharmacologist looks at the untapped healing compounds

Reminder: We are available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

Marijuana is a lot more than just THC - a pharmacologist looks at the untapped healing compounds

Assorted cannabis bud strains. Roxana Gonzalez/Shutterstock.com

Courtesy of James David Adams, University of Southern California

Medical marijuana is legal in 33 states as of November 2018. Yet the federal government still insists marijuana has no legal u...



more from Biotech

Members' Corner

Despacito - How to Make Money the Old-Fashioned Way - SLOWLY!

Are you ready to retire?  

For most people, the purpose of investing is to build up enough wealth to allow you to retire.  In general, that's usually enough money to reliably generate a year's worth of your average income, each year into your retirement so that that, plus you Social Security, should be enough to pay your bills without having to draw down on your principle.

Unfortunately, as the last decade has shown us, we can't count on bonds to pay us more than 3% and the average return from the stock market over the past 20 years has been erratic - to say the least - with 4 negative years (2000, 2001, 2002 and 2008) and 14 positives, though mostly in the 10% range on the positives.  A string of losses like we had from 2000-02 could easily wipe out a decades worth of gains.

Still, the stock market has been better over the last 10 (7%) an...



more from Our Members

Mapping The Market

It's Not Capitalism, it's Crony Capitalism

A good start from :

It's Not Capitalism, it's Crony Capitalism

Excerpt:

The threat to America is this: we have abandoned our core philosophy. Our first principle of this nation as a meritocracy, a free-market economy, where competition drives economic decision-making. In its place, we have allowed a malignancy to fester, a virulent pus-filled bastardized form of economics so corrosive in nature, so dangerously pestilent, that it presents an extinction-level threat to America – both the actual nation and the “idea” of America.

This all-encompassing mutant corruption saps men’s souls, crushes opportunities, and destroys economic mobility. Its a Smash & Grab system of ill-gotten re...



more from M.T.M.

OpTrader

Swing trading portfolio - week of September 11th, 2017

Reminder: OpTrader is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

This post is for all our live virtual trade ideas and daily comments. Please click on "comments" below to follow our live discussion. All of our current  trades are listed in the spreadsheet below, with entry price (1/2 in and All in), and exit prices (1/3 out, 2/3 out, and All out).

We also indicate our stop, which is most of the time the "5 day moving average". All trades, unless indicated, are front-month ATM options. 

Please feel free to participate in the discussion and ask any questions you might have about this virtual portfolio, by clicking on the "comments" link right below.

To learn more about the swing trading virtual portfolio (strategy, performance, FAQ, etc.), please click here ...



more from OpTrader

Promotions

Free eBook - "My Top Strategies for 2017"

 

 

Here's a free ebook for you to check out! 

Phil has a chapter in a newly-released eBook that we think you’ll enjoy.

In My Top Strategies for 2017, Phil's chapter is Secret Santa’s Inflation Hedges for 2017.

This chapter isn’t about risk or leverage. Phil present a few smart, practical ideas you can use as a hedge against inflation as well as hedging strategies designed to assist you in staying ahead of the markets.

Some other great content in this free eBook includes:

 

·       How 2017 Will Affect Oil, the US Dollar and the European Union

...

more from Promotions





About Phil:

Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

Learn more About Phil >>


As Seen On:




About Ilene:

Ilene is editor and affiliate program coordinator for PSW. She manages the site market shadows, archives, more. Contact Ilene to learn about our affiliate and content sharing programs.

Market Shadows >>