Posts Tagged ‘consumption growth’

China’s retail sales growth figures are not consumption growth figures

Michael Pettis discusses China’s retail sales numbers (not a proxy for consumption) and the mounting trade tensions between China and the U.S. – Ilene

China’s retail sales growth figures are not consumption growth figures

china tradeCourtesy of Michael Pettis at China Financial Markets

A lot of people, via emails, letters and phone calls, have been asking me how I can be so pessimist about consumption growth in China given the spectacular consumption growth figures coming out of China – 15.4% year to date.  An editor who asked me for a piece, after reading it also wondered if my view – that China’s GDP growth would be constrained by its consumption growth – was such a worrying thing given China’s 15% growth rate of consumption. 

The problem is that these are not consumption growth figures.  They are retail sales figures.  Fair enough, you might think, but the retail sales growth rate should still be a reasonable proxy for consumption growth.  It isn’t.  Among lots of other noise retail sales figures include government purchases and shipments to retailers even before these shipments are sold to consumers.  That makes it a very bad proxy for consumption.

Take a look why.  I took the following chart from the September 14 issue of Jim Walker’s excellent Asianomics report.  This shows retail sales for the past decade.  As you can see, first of all, for all the excitement there has not been much of a surge in retail sales.  Secondly, retail sales have been supposedly growing between 13% and 24% for the past six years, which even on an inflation-adjusted basis (I assume it is inflation that explains the late 2007 and early 2008 surge) significantly exceeds GDP growth.  But if retail sales were really a decent proxy for consumption growth, it would be hard to tell from this graph that consumption has plunged as a share of GDP.

China retail sales 

But it has.  Consumption has been growing over the past several years by about 8-9% a year, while GDP has been hurtling forward by 10-12% a year and, not surprisingly, this implies arithmetically that consumption is declining as a share of GDP.

This is supposed to be a short entry, but before closing I should discuss the recent 35% tariffs on Chinese tires imposed by the Obama administration, especially since that seems to have been one of the hottest topics of conversation today. 


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Zero Hedge

University Of Georgia Suggests "Wearing A Face Mask" During Sex

Courtesy of ZeroHedge View original post here.

Just when you thought all universities were good for was churning out uninformed Marxists, the University of Georgia breaks that stigma by offering up some groundbreaking sexual health advice in the midst of the coronavirus pandemic. 

The University had written a section called "Covid-19 Considerations" on its University Health Center website several days ago, but the document was pulled down after the university was subjected to ridicule for its content, which actually suggested "wearing a face mask during sex."

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Phil's Favorites

Before Kamala Harris became Biden's running mate, Shirley Chisholm and other Black women aimed for the White House

 

Before Kamala Harris became Biden's running mate, Shirley Chisholm and other Black women aimed for the White House

Kamala Harris, a U.S. senator from California, endorsed Joe Biden for president in March. Now she is his vice presidential nominee. Jeff Kowalsky/AFP via Getty Images

Courtesy of Sharon Austin, University of Florida

U.S. Sen. Kamala Harris, the ...



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Biotech/COVID-19

Trillions in coronavirus spending is putting AOC's favorite economic theory to the test

 

Trillions in coronavirus spending is putting AOC's favorite economic theory to the test

The Fed can create all the money Uncle Sam needs. GeorgePeters/Getty Images

Courtesy of Steven Pressman, Colorado State University

French philosopher Voltaire famously quipped: “If God did not exist, it would be necessary to invent him.” Something similar can be said of modern monetary theory, also known as MMT, because it may be the economy’s only hope to get through the pandemic.

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Bonhoeffer Fund 2Q20 Commentary - Case Study: Antero Midstream

By Jacob Wolinsky. Originally published at ValueWalk.

Bonhoeffer Fund commentary for the second quarter ended July 2020, providing a case study on Antero Midstream Corp (NYSE:AM).

Q2 2020 hedge fund letters, conferences and more

Dear Partner,

The Bonhoeffer Fund returned 21.7% net of fees in the second quarter of 2020. Given the unique portfolio Bonhoeffer manages, I have struggled to find an appropriate benchmark but have determined that the DFA International Small Cap Value Fund offers the closest representative comparison to Bonhoeffer....



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Doc Copper Bear Market Resistance Kiss In Play!

Courtesy of Chris Kimble

Is ole Doc Copper about to ends its 9-year bear market? I suspect we will find out the answer to the question very soon!

Doc Copper has created a series of higher lows inside the falling channel (1) since it peaked back in 2011.

The rally from the lows in March of this year, has Doc Copper testing the top of its falling channel as well as a support/resistance price zone at (2).

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Courtesy of Technical Traders

Technical Analysis teaches us that price Gaps tend to be filled by future price action.  This is not something new for many of our readers, whom may be familiar with our mantra ‘Gaps always get filled!’.  The big Gap created near February 24, 2020, the start of the COVID-19 market collapse, has recently been filled in the SPY and the TRAN (Transportation Index).  We believe this “filling of the Gap” may be a sign that the upside market trend may begin to stall and potentially reverse. 

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Silver Big Channel

Courtesy of Read the Ticker

Big channels are the sand pit of price action. Lets review some big trends of these past months.


GLD
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XAU
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SILVER
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Digital Currencies

Raoul Pal: "It May Not Be Worth Owning Any Asset Other Than Bitcoin"

Courtesy of ZeroHedge View original post here.

Authored by Turner Wright via CoinTelegraph.com,

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image courtesy of CoinTelegraph ...



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The numbers of new cases in some of the hardest hit COVID19 states have started to plateau, or even decline, over the past few days. A few pundits have noted it and concluded that it was a hopeful sign. 

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Promotions

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