Posts Tagged ‘CTB’

Bulls Snap Up Weekly Calls On Hewlett-Packard

Today’s tickers: HPQ, VFC & CTB

HPQ - Hewlett-Packard Co. – Bullish options are changing hands on PC and printer maker, Hewlett-Packard Co., this morning, with shares in the name up sharply on comments from CEO, Meg Whitman, at the company’s Discover Conference in Las Vegas. Shares are currently up the most in the Dow Jones Industrial Average, trading higher by 3.1% at $25.00 as of 11:50 a.m. ET. The stock earlier rallied more than 5.0% to touch a new 52-week high of $25.49. Traders positioning for shares in HPQ to extend gains during the next couple of trading sessions snapped up weekly calls on the stock straight out of the gate this morning. The most active weekly calls by volume are the Jun 14 ’13 $25.5 strike contracts, with around 3,200 calls traded before midday in New York. It looks like most of the calls were purchased, with roughly 1,000 of the total volume picked up by one strategist at a premium of $0.23 each. The trader stands ready to profit at expiration should shares in the HPQ settle above the breakeven price of $25.73. The Jun 14 ’13 $26 strike calls are also active today, with around 350 lots purchased at an average premium of $0.08 apiece.

VFC - VF Corp. – Shares in the owner of a portfolio of well-known apparel and footwear brands, including The North Face, Timberland and Seven for All Mankind, rallied 0.80% to a new all-time high of $189.60 this morning following the company’s Investor Day conference on Tuesday. VF Corp. yesterday outlined revenue and growth targets and strategic initiatives. Analysts at Janney Montgomery Scott maintain a ‘Buy’ rating on the stock and raised their target price to $210.00 from $188.00. Fresh interest in July expiry puts on VFC this morning suggests one or more options traders are bracing for the price of the underlying to potentially decline during the next five weeks. The most actively traded contracts today are the Jul $180 puts, with upwards of 1,000 contracts in play versus…
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Defending Your Virtual Portfolio With Dividends – Q4 (Members Only)

In uncertain markets, dividends can give you a critical investing edge.

As you can see from the chart on the left, just mindlessly investing in dividend-paying stocks can give you more than a 2:1 annual advantage in your investments

Of course, here at PSW, we teach the art of selling options premiums – something that turns virtually any stock into a "dividend" payer.  For example, MSFT is only a small, 2% dividend-payer but a fairly solid cash-machine of a stock that we don't feel is likely to go bankrupt overnight so it makes for a nice safe staple in a long-term virtual portfolio.  But MSFT is also a very poorly-run company that hasn't grown in 20 years but we can make it a much more interesting stock by simply selling covered calls.

For example, in our August edition of Dividend Payers,  we looked at MSFT for $24.23 and we sell the Sept $24 calls for .77.  This lowered our effective basis to $23.46 and selling the call putus in no special danger – we simply agreed to sell MSFT for $24 on expiration day in September (the 17th).

The stock was called away from us, and we made a .54 profit or 2.3% of our net $23.46 cash investment in less than 30 days.  That works out to a 26% annualized ROI and we had an opportunity (as we had expected) to buy the stock again and again at $24 on Oct 4th and 5th and sell the November $24 calls for .90 for a net $23.10 re-entry and ANOTHER 3.8% GAIN if we are called away at $24 or greater on Nov 19th.  Doesn't that beat waiting a whole quarter for your 1% dividend checks?  

Of course, you can optimize all this with timing and we favor stocks that are on sale – this is just a very simple example of how our most basic options strategy can drastically boost your annual returns on any stock in your virtual portfolio.

Let's say you don't want to mess around with MSFT every month.  You could have simply sold the 2012 $22.50s for $4.40 (also suggested in the August post), that dropped your net entry from $24.23 to $19.83…
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The Sabrient Investor’s Hedge

This is a sample of one of Sabrient’s premium services, The Sabrient Investor’s (H)edgeThe Sabrient Investor’s (H)Edge is an absolute return, long/short portfolio, based on a proven, back-tested, institutional quant strategy, which was designed to be unbiased and highly disciplined to make money in all market conditions. - Ilene 

 

Sabrient Systems is an independent equity research firm that helps clients enhance their investment performance and contain risk by providing unbiased, quantitative research for nearly 6,000 stocks, indices and ETFs. 


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Weak Weekly Wrap-Up – Charting Uncertain Waters

I’m just doing a quick wrap-up this week because, surprisingly, it MIGHT be time for a new Buy List!

I had said to Members on Cinco de Mayo, in our 5% Rule Review, that if we broke below 1,155 we would retrace all the way to 1,100 with our 5% Rule resistance points around 1,100 at 1,155, 1,114, 1,100, 1,073 and 1,045.   We actually spiked as low as 1,066 on Thursday but finished the week at a very sad 1,110 as we watched for that "weak bounce" zone to be broken all day.  This does not bode technically well for the markets next week but I told Members we would have to give the markets a pass for the day.  Based on the uncertainty of the weekend, we can’t expect a lot of capital commitments ahead of the EU decision.  After all, we’re in cash – why shouldn’t other smart funds be too?

When I predicted we’d hit 1,000 on Wednesday, I did not think it would be on Thursday!  The markets are now negative for the year and the S&P has spiked almost to the Feb low of 1,044 (and our lowest close was 1,056).  That’s right, these 5% Rule numbers are the SAME ones we used back then and it’s the same series we used to measure our winter run at the end of last year.  We expect a bounce here, hopefully at least a test of 1,155 on a relief rally if Greece is "fixed" yet again on Monday but we’re not going to be too impressed until we’re over that line. 

Still that means it’s time to at least lay out a new Watch List, which is the prelude to a Buy List – giving us a list of stocks we’d like to get into at lower prices.  Our last Member Watch List was back in December and by Feb 6th we had our famous Buy List, which we triggered at Dow 10,058 for a very successful run through March 18th ("Bye Bye Buy List!"), when we closed 2/3 of the positions and we have since cashed out the rest as I got more and more worried about the rally, finally calling for all cash last week.  

Speaking of last week, for those of you who say I don’t pick enough straight stocks – I listed 33 short trade ideas from my unofficial "Sell Listlast Friday (4/30) when the Dow was way up at 11,167…
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GDWheee Friday – Could be a Wild Ride!

Attention ladies and gentlemen:

The stock market will soon be leaving the station, please secure all personal items, pull down the safety bar (our Disaster Hedges) and keep all body parts inside ride at all times.  Well you know you can follow all of the safety instructions and STILL get smacked in the face with a black swan (like our friend Fabio, pictured here) which is why we elected to get back to cash ahead of this report.  The markets were just too insane this week and who the heck knows if Europe will still be a Union on Monday or what the GDP number is going to be (but I do think it's a miss). 

Since our biggest weekend fear is financial panic in Europe, our cash US dollars will become more valuable in a crisis and if the market drops, all the better as we can ride back in and do some bargain hunting.  If the market takes off on good GDP and Greece is "fixed" and Spain is "fixed" and Portugal and Ireland are not really a problem (especially for MS and JPM) and the CRIMINAL charges against Goldman look beatable and and the Financial Reform Bill doesn't disrupt the market with a disorderly breakup of the big banks and the Bank of International Settlements Report continues to be ignored and the run on the Greek banks doesn't spread to other STUPID counties – well, then we can BUYBUYBUY because, if all this doesn't matter, then it's very likely that the entire planet Earth could explode but Wall Street will keep ticking higher.

Yep, I can't wait to ride this baby mindlessly higher!  After all, what can go wrong?  BIDU is ONLY $710 a share, BLK is $190, CMP is $76, GOLD is $84, BUCY is $65, FAST is $56, MMM is $90, FOSL $40, F $13.50, DECK $149, SHOO $55, TPX $35, LZB $14, CTB $22, NOG $16, CEO $176, FTI $75, CLB $150, CIB $46, BBD $19, TD $75, BCA $45, BAP $87, ITUB $22, EDU $94, WYNN $93, FFIV $72, CY $14, CREE $77, UPS $70, UNP $78… 

These were stocks I was looking at last week, when I told members I thought it was easier to construct a Sell List than our usual…
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Bears Once Again Bombard Financial Select Sector SPDR (XLF)

Today’s tickers: XLF, CECO, SLB, CTB, WFC, CACI, WSM, CTXS & FITB

XLF – Financial Select Sector SPDR – A massive put spread comprised of approximately 200,000 put options on the XLF, an exchange-traded fund that corresponds to the price and yield performance of the Financial Select Sector of the S&P 500 Index, indicates investor pessimism is alive and well despite positive first-quarter earnings announcements from a number of large financial firms this week. Bearish plays also dominated activity on the XLF earlier in the week. Shares of the underlying fund are currently down 1.2% to $16.54 as of 3:10 pm (ET). The pessimistic options player appears to have purchased roughly 100,000 put options at the June $16 strike for an average premium of $0.39 each, marked against the sale of about the same number of puts at the lower June $15 strike for $0.16 apiece. Net premium paid for the spread amounts to $0.23 per contract. The massive size of the transaction suggests the trade was initiated by an investor seeking downside protection on sizeable underlying stock positions in either the XLF itself, related holdings of the fund, or perhaps both, through June expiration. Suppose the investor is building up insurance on a large position in the underlying shares of the XLF. In this scenario, downside protection kicks in should shares of the XLF breach the effective breakeven point on the spread at $15.77 ahead of June expiration. Options players exchanged more than 415,000 option contracts on the XLF as of 3:10 pm (ET), with put options trading more than 3.5 times to each single call option in play today.

CECO – Career Education Corp. – Shares of the provider of private, for-profit, postsecondary education in the United States jumped 4.8% during the session to a new 52-week high of $35.41 after the firm received an upgrade to ‘overweight’ from ‘equal weight’ at Barclays Capital today. Options movement on the stock suggests one investor was prepared for the breakout in CECO’s shares. It looks like the investor first banked profits today by selling a previously established long call position in the July contract, and next extended and augmented bullish sentiment on the stock by purchasing fresh calls at a higher strike price. The trader likely purchased 1,900 calls at the July $35 strike f or an average premium of $1.70 each back on March 17, 2010, when shares of…
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Bears Once Again Bombard Financial Select Sector SPDR (XLF)

Today’s tickers: XLF, CECO, SLB, CTB, WFC, CACI, WSM, CTXS & FITB

XLF – Financial Select Sector SPDR – A massive put spread comprised of approximately 200,000 put options on the XLF, an exchange-traded fund that corresponds to the price and yield performance of the Financial Select Sector of the S&P 500 Index, indicates investor pessimism is alive and well despite positive first-quarter earnings announcements from a number of large financial firms this week. Bearish plays also dominated activity on the XLF earlier in the week. Shares of the underlying fund are currently down 1.2% to $16.54 as of 3:10 pm (ET). The pessimistic options player appears to have purchased roughly 100,000 put options at the June $16 strike for an average premium of $0.39 each, marked against the sale of about the same number of puts at the lower June $15 strike for $0.16 apiece. Net premium paid for the spread amounts to $0.23 per contract. The massive size of the transaction suggests the trade was initiated by an investor seeking downside protection on sizeable underlying stock positions in either the XLF itself, related holdings of the fund, or perhaps both, through June expiration. Suppose the investor is building up insurance on a large position in the underlying shares of the XLF. In this scenario, downside protection kicks in should shares of the XLF breach the effective breakeven point on the spread at $15.77 ahead of June expiration. Options players exchanged more than 415,000 option contracts on the XLF as of 3:10 pm (ET), with put options trading more than 3.5 times to each single call option in play today.

CECO – Career Education Corp. – Shares of the provider of private, for-profit, postsecondary education in the United States jumped 4.8% during the session to a new 52-week high of $35.41 after the firm received an upgrade to ‘overweight’ from ‘equal weight’ at Barclays Capital today. Options movement on the stock suggests one investor was prepared for the breakout in CECO’s shares. It looks like the investor first banked profits today by selling a previously established long call position in the July contract, and next extended and augmented bullish sentiment on the stock by purchasing fresh calls at a higher strike price. The trader likely purchased 1,900 calls at the July $35 strike f or an average premium of $1.70 each back on March 17, 2010, when shares of…
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Monday Market Movement – Pattern Recognition

Here’s a scary chart pattern for you from our Chart School:

Elliot Wave Trends points out that the S&P has fallen into a fractal patten that may be repeating the behavior of the great drop of ’08, right here, right now.  Of course patterns do SEEM to repeat themselves all the time – until they don’t – but it will be interesting this week and next to see if we follow-through with a flatline, followed by a drop to 1,000 from which we falsely back to 1,050 and then plunge to our doom as Santa foresakes us and we run all the way back down to our lows.

That’s where they lose me.  Charts are fun and all but I see no basis for going back to our lows as our lows were ridiculous and caused by panic-selling in a doomsday scenario.  Hard to imagine things will fall apart that badly between now and Jan earnings although I do believe we will have a rough time — just not that rough! 

Economy barrons surveyBarron’s surveyed Money Managers this weekend and they don’t seem to think things will be rough at all.  52% of those surveyed think there is NO WAY we will have a double dip recession.  76% believe that the decline in corporate profits has ended and 68% believe our GDP wil grow more than 2.5% in Q4 while just 10% believe it is possible for commodity pricing to fall in the next 6 months.  You know what they say about when everyone is on the same side of a bet of course! 

These are the people we give our money to – the biggest and "brightest" of hedge fund managers who control over $1Tn of assets under management.  Favorite stocks in the group are: MSFT, ABT, BAC, BRK.A, CVS, GE, GS, LEG and QCOM.  Stocks that are considered overvalued are: AIG, AAPL, GOOG, CAT, AMZN, C, GE, GMCR, VZ and YHOO.  Ony 7% think Asian stocks are heading lowed, just 1% less than 8% who feel oil is going down; 92% don’t feel oil will go down

Everybody likes Tech (just 0.9% think it will be the worst performing sector) and nobody likes the Financials (22.5% think it will be the worst performing sector) followed by Consumer Cyclicals (20.7%) and, oddly, Utilities (15.3%).  The sectors picked as the best performers for the next 6-12 months are Tech (18.9%), Energy (17.1%) and Health Care (17.1%).  Only…
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Phil's Favorites

Peloton IPO Guide... And Why It Makes No Sense

Courtesy of ZeroHedge

By Scott Willis via Grizzle.com

BOTTOM LINE

At the end of the day, Peloton is a gym membership pretending to be a tech company.

We fully admit the product is exciting and unique in the market, but Peloton still faces the same problem...



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Zero Hedge

Peloton IPO Guide... And Why It Makes No Sense

Courtesy of ZeroHedge

By Scott Willis via Grizzle.com

BOTTOM LINE

At the end of the day, Peloton is a gym membership pretending to be a tech company.

We fully admit the product is exciting and unique in the market, but Peloton still faces the same problem...



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Digital Currencies

Buyer beware: How Libra differs from Bitcoin

 

Buyer beware: How Libra differs from Bitcoin

Recent revelations about the lack of privacy protections in place at the companies involved in Facebook’s new Libra crytocurrency raise concerns about how much trust users can place in Libra. (Shutterstock)

Courtesy of Alfred Lehar, University of Calgary

Facebook, the largest social network in the world, stunned the world earlier this year with the announcement of its own cryptocurrency, Libra.

The launch has raised questions about the difference between Libra and existing cryptocurrencies, as well as the implications of private companies competing with s...



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Lee's Free Thinking

Look Out Bears! Fed New QE Now Up to $165 Billion

Courtesy of Lee Adler

I have been warning for months that the Fed would need new QE to counter the impact of massive waves of Treasury supply. I thought that that would come later, rather than sooner. Sorry folks, wrong about that. The NY Fed announced another round of new TOMO (Temporary Open Market Operations) today.

In addition to the $75 billion in overnight repos that the Fed issued and has been rolling over since Tuesday, next week the Fed will issue another $90 billion. They’ll come in the form of three $30 billion, 14 day repos to be offered next week.

That brings the new Fed QE to a total of $165 billion. Even in the worst days of the financial crisis, I can’t remember the Fed ballooning its balance sheet by $165 bi...



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The Technical Traders

Is A Price Revaluation Event About To Happen?

Courtesy of Technical Traders

Skilled technical traders must be aware that price is setting up for a breakout or breakdown event with recent Doji, Hammer
and other narrow range price bars.  These types of Japanese Candlestick patterns are warnings that price is coiling into
a tight range and the more we see them in a series, the more likely price is building up some type of explosive price breakout/breakdown move in the near future.  The ES (S&P 500 E-mini futures) chart is a perfect example of these types of price bars on the Daily chart (see below).

Tri-Star Tops, Three River Evening Star patterns, Hammers/Hangmen and Dojis are all very common near extreme price peaks and troughs.  The rea...



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Kimble Charting Solutions

India About To Experience Major Strength? Possible Says Joe Friday

Courtesy of Chris Kimble

If one invested in the India ETF (INDA) back in January of 2012, your total 7-year return would be 24%. During the same time frame, the S&P 500 made 124%. The 7-year spread between the two is a large 100%!

Are things about to improve for the INDA ETF and could it be time for the relative weakness to change? Possible!

This chart looks at the INDA/SPX ratio since early 2012. The ratio continues to be in a major downtrend.

The ratio hit a 7-year low a few months ago and this week it kissed those lows again at (1). The ratio near weeks end is attempting to...



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Insider Scoop

10 Biggest Price Target Changes For Friday

Courtesy of Benzinga

  • Credit Suisse raised IHS Markit Ltd (NYSE: INFO) price target from $68 to $76. IHS Markit shares closed at $67.75 on Thursday.
  • Wedbush boosted Restoration Hardware Holdings, Inc (NYSE: RH) price target from $170 to $185. RH shares closed at $169.49 on Thursday.
  • Mizuho lifted Seagate Technology PLC (NASDAQ: STX) price target from $46 to $50. Seagate shares closed at $52.94 on Thursday.
  • UBS raised the price target for Weight Watchers Intern...


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Chart School

Crude Oil Cycle Bottom aligns with Saudi Oil Attack

Courtesy of Read the Ticker

Do the cycles know? Funny how cycle lows attract the need for higher prices, no matter what the news is!

These are the questions before markets on on Monday 16th Aug 2019:

1) A much higher oil price in quick time can not be tolerated by the consumer, as it gives birth to much higher inflation and a tax on the average Joe disposable income. This is recessionary pressure.

2) With (1) above the real issue will be the higher interest rate and US dollar effect on the SP500 near all time highs.

3) A moderately higher oil price is likely to be absorbed and be bullish as it creates income for struggling energy companies and the inflation shock may be muted. 

We shall see. 

...

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Biotech

The Big Pharma Takeover of Medical Cannabis

Reminder: We are available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

The Big Pharma Takeover of Medical Cannabis

Courtesy of  , Visual Capitalist

The Big Pharma Takeover of Medical Cannabis

As evidence of cannabis’ many benefits mounts, so does the interest from the global pharmaceutical industry, known as Big Pharma. The entrance of such behemoths will radically transform the cannabis industry—once heavily stigmatized, it is now a potentially game-changing source of growth for countless co...



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Mapping The Market

How IPOs Are Priced

Via Jean Luc 

Funny but probably true:

...

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Members' Corner

Despacito - How to Make Money the Old-Fashioned Way - SLOWLY!

Are you ready to retire?  

For most people, the purpose of investing is to build up enough wealth to allow you to retire.  In general, that's usually enough money to reliably generate a year's worth of your average income, each year into your retirement so that that, plus you Social Security, should be enough to pay your bills without having to draw down on your principle.

Unfortunately, as the last decade has shown us, we can't count on bonds to pay us more than 3% and the average return from the stock market over the past 20 years has been erratic - to say the least - with 4 negative years (2000, 2001, 2002 and 2008) and 14 positives, though mostly in the 10% range on the positives.  A string of losses like we had from 2000-02 could easily wipe out a decades worth of gains.

Still, the stock market has been better over the last 10 (7%) an...



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Promotions

Free eBook - "My Top Strategies for 2017"

 

 

Here's a free ebook for you to check out! 

Phil has a chapter in a newly-released eBook that we think you’ll enjoy.

In My Top Strategies for 2017, Phil's chapter is Secret Santa’s Inflation Hedges for 2017.

This chapter isn’t about risk or leverage. Phil present a few smart, practical ideas you can use as a hedge against inflation as well as hedging strategies designed to assist you in staying ahead of the markets.

Some other great content in this free eBook includes:

 

·       How 2017 Will Affect Oil, the US Dollar and the European Union

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About Phil:

Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

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About Ilene:

Ilene is editor and affiliate program coordinator for PSW. She manages the site market shadows, archives, more. Contact Ilene to learn about our affiliate and content sharing programs.

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