Posts Tagged ‘currency crisis’

China and the Goldfinger Syndrome

China and the Goldfinger Syndrome

Courtesy of JESSE’S CAFÉ AMÉRICAIN

I have had some interesting discussions recently with correspondents about the problem which China has with its very large US dollar reserves.

To summarize what I think, China is attempting to diversify their portfolio of US Treasury dollar holdings. They are obviously accumulating ‘real goods’ including stockpiles of basic materials, gold, silver, oil and investments in the means of production in their own region and in key regions around the world.

This is more difficult than it might appear on the surface. Real goods are often strategic, and governments are sometimes reluctant to allow them to be acquired by a government considered a potential threat. The first difficulty is the strategic importance of some assets, such as the China’s offer for the purchase of Unocal.

But there is also a need for confidentiality, stealthiness if you will. If word were to leak out that ‘China is dumping its Treasuries’ there would be a run on the market and the Chinese could lose a portion of their reserve wealth rather quickly.

Now, would it matter. Well, yes. It would matter because US dollars are still the currency of choice for most international trade including the all important international commodity, oil. If you think that philosophically dollars have no value because they are just paper, I would be more than happy to dispose of them for you. Limited time offer, of course.

I also posited that China, while accumulating its real goods quietly against the constraint of perturbing the markets, could do short term hedges against the less catastrophic scenario of further dollar devaluation by going into the very deep and liquid financial assets markets, and hedging risk with CDS and other obvious investments including shorts of various types.

As anyone who has attempted to acquire a company or take a substantial position in or out of an asset or company, at some point you can affect the price, making other participants aware that the asset is in play, and end up selling or buying against yourself. In the case of China it could also trigger a run on the bank of the US, which is an immediate endgame.

With regard to the use of financial instruments, someone raised the obvious issue of counter party risk. Well, of course it is an issue. But less so if you are merely hedging…
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Currency Wars

Currency Wars

Courtesy of JESSE’S CAFÉ AMÉRICAIN

"In his latest letter, Mylchreest reckons we are now in the ‘Third Gold War’ since the Second World War and this is being waged between the USA in conjunction with other western countries/institutions, notably the IMF, and various opposing sectors worldwide. In his contention, the U.S. and its allies lost the first of these ‘gold wars’ to the French (then under De Gaulle) and the second to the Middle East, helped significantly by the then pro-gold stance and purchasing power of the German Deutsche Bank .

This latest Gold War has been/is being fought covertly. "High profile sales of physical gold have, for the most part, been replaced by sales of "paper gold" in the form of futures, OTC options and unallocated gold, etc." asserts Mylchreest. But this time he reckons the veil has been lifted and the whole charade is beginning to unravel. Instead of France or Arab nations, the opponent this time is China – the 800 pound gorilla – potentially an even more formidable opponent, with a huge treasury of trillions of dollars with which to back its moves. It’s not just that it is the Chinese government which is the major participant, but also now that gold and silver ownership is being promoted to the populace there by government institutions, there is the huge pent-up, and growing interest in precious metals of the rapidly increasing Chinese middle class and its potential to affect the global demand patterns."

China: the Gorilla in the Third Gold War, Lawrence Williams

The gold war as described above is just one front in a greater and more general ‘currency war’ that is evolving as the empire of ‘the US dollar as the reserve currency,’ which has been in place since the end of WW II, declines and finally falls in the profligacy and crony capitalism of the Federal Reserve Bank and the Treasury.

This battle may manifest itself more publicly later this year in the debate over the reconstitution of the basket of currencies that the IMF’s Special Drawing Rights (SDR) will contain.

What Will Be the New World Reserve Currency

Russia Calls for Changes to the SDR

The SDR may not be the successor to the dollar hegemony in the short term. The BRICs may lobby hard enough to legitimize it,…
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Conversation with John Rubino

Conversation with John Rubino  

John Rubino John Rubino is the co-author, with GoldMoney’s James Turk, of The Collapse of the Dollar and How to Profit From It (Doubleday, 2007), and author of Clean Money: Picking Winners in the Green-Tech Boom (Wiley, 2008), How to Profit from the Coming Real Estate Bust (Rodale, 2003) and Main Street, Not Wall Street (Morrow, 1998). After earning a Finance MBA from New York University, he spent the 1980s on Wall Street, as a Eurodollar trader, equity analyst and junk bond analyst. During the 1990s he was a featured columnist with TheStreet.com and a frequent contributor to Individual Investor, Online Investor, and Consumers Digest, among many other publications. He now writes for CFA Magazine and manages and edits the terrific websites DollarCollapse.com and GreenStockInvesting.com.
 

“This is the end of a long era and the beginning of another that is not going to be nearly as nice.” John Rubino

 
Our first conversation was on the phone, the day Ben Bernanke was named “Person of the Year” by Time Magazine
 
Ilene: So what do you think of Ben Bernanke winning the Time’s person of the year award?
 
ben bernanke, person of the year, timeJohn: First, this was obviously a lame year – not much competition. Second, it’s a great negative indicator, like Time’s “Home Sweet Home” edition just prior to the housing collapse. Ben Bernanke is part of the old monetary order, in which it was acceptable to create paper money in infinite amounts to finance a growing government. The peak of his popularity coincides with the end of the system he helped design.
 
Ilene: Do you think Bernanke will get reappointed?
 
John: Oh yes, he fits the times perfectly. Most of the people in charge think he did a great job. He’ll be reappointed and he and Alan Greenspan will be identified with the future crisis, they’ll be the guys who are in the history books as the Fed Chairmen who ran us off a cliff. And it couldn’t happen to two nicer guys as far as I’m concerned.


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Phil's Favorites

LNG Shipper Flex LNG

 

Transformity's Tobin Smith is highlighting LNG Shipper Flex LNG (FLNG) today for his subscribers and us. The company goes ex-dividend tomorrow, so he's also suggesting reading this article and, if you're interested, buying shares today under $25. 

LNG Shipper Flex LNG

Courtesy of Tobin Smith, Editor-in-Chief, Transformity Investor PRO

Investment Idea: Buy $FLNG under $25 with $30-$34 target (buy today, shares go ex-dividend tomorrow) 

We have been waiting patiently for Flex LNG (too patiently, actually) to increase their nearly 3% dividend to what made sense given the huge demand for LNG imports into Europe and Asia (especially China) and our cash flow estimates.  Well...in the last few days, FLNG raised their dividend by 80%. If we act quickly, we can lock about a $3/...



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Zero Hedge

Risk Assets Don't Have A Central Bank Superhero This Time

Courtesy of ZeroHedge View original post here.

By Michael Read, Bloomberg Markets Live commentator and reporter

Why hasn’t risk bounced?

Why hasn’t there been a large troupe of dip buyers at the ready after Friday’s rout? 

There are three main factors behind the underwhelming price action so far this week:

  1. The emergence of previous variants has come as central bankers were roughly midway through an easing program: there was a backdrop of asset purchases and dovish forward guidance to placate an angsty market. This time not so much, and while policy makers may twe...



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Biotech/COVID-19

Omicron: why the WHO designated it a variant of concern

 

Omicron: why the WHO designated it a variant of concern

Courtesy of Ed Feil, University of Bath

The World Health Organization (WHO) has announced that the B.1.1.529 lineage of Sars-CoV-2, thought to have emerged in southern Africa, is to be designated as a variant of concern (VoC) named omicron. This decision has already precipitated a broad shift in priorities in pandemic management on a global scale.

The WHO has recommended, among other things, increased surveillance, particularly virus genome sequencing; focused research to understand the dangers posed by this...



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Politics

The first Thanksgiving is a key chapter in America's origin story - but what happened in Virginia four months later mattered much more

 

The first Thanksgiving is a key chapter in America’s origin story – but what happened in Virginia four months later mattered much more

In the 19th century, there was a campaign to link the Thanksgiving holiday to the Pilgrims. Bettman/Getty Images

Courtesy of Peter C. Mancall, USC Dornsife College of Letters, Arts and Sciences

This year marks the 400th anniversary of the first Thanksgiving in New England. Remembered and retold as an allegory for perseverance and cooper...



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Chart School

Gold and Silver still working higher

Courtesy of Read the Ticker

Using Gann Angles from zero we can time the next run up, and it is near.

The last two days gold and silver are down on the back of central bankers talking the US Dollar higher in a attempt to off set inflation. A rising dollar is a form of tightening. Also the talk of a faster 'taper' has sent interest rates higher. But Luke Gromen knows this cant not last.

@LukeGromen Externally-financed twin deficit nations with insufficient external financing (ie the US, not Japan) cannot abide rising real rates for long.


RTT Comments: What this means a higher US Dollar makes it harder for those outside the US to buy the vast quantity of US Treasuries. 


U...

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Digital Currencies

Stablecoins: these cryptocurrencies threaten the financial system, but no one is getting to grips with them

 

Stablecoins: these cryptocurrencies threaten the financial system, but no one is getting to grips with them

Safe as houses? iQoncept

Courtesy of Jean-Philippe Serbera, Sheffield Hallam University

Cryptocurrencies have had an exceptional year, reaching a combined value of more than US$3 trillion (£2.2 trillion) for the first time in November. The market seems to have benefited from the public having tim...



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Promotions

Phil's Interview on Options Trading with TD Bank

TD Bank's host Bryan Rogers interviewed Phil on June 10 as part of TD's Options Education Month. If you missed the program, be sure to watch the video below. It should be required viewing for anyone trading or thinking about trading using options. 

Watch here:

TD's webinar with Phil (link) or right here at PSW

Screenshots of TD's slides illustrating Phil's examples:

 

 

&n...



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Kimble Charting Solutions

Crude Oil Cleared For Blast Off On This Dual Breakout?

Courtesy of Chris Kimble

Is Crude Oil about to blast off and hit much higher prices? It might be worth being aware of what could be taking place this month in this important commodity!

Crude Oil has created lower highs over the past 13-years, since peaking back in 2008, along line (1).

It created a “Double Top at (2), then it proceeded to decline more than 60% in four months.

The countertrend rally in Crude Oil has it attempting to break above its 13-year falling resistance as well as its double top at (3).

A successful breakout at (3) would suggest Crude Oil is about to mo...



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ValueWalk

Managing Investments As A Charity Or Nonprofit

By Anna Peel. Originally published at ValueWalk.

Maintaining financial viability is a constant challenge for charities and nonprofit organizations.

Q4 2020 hedge fund letters, conferences and more

The past year has underscored that challenge. The pandemic has not just affected investment returns – it’s also had serious implications for charitable activities and the ability to fundraise. For some organizations, it’s even raised doubts about whether they can continue to operate.

Finding ways to generate long-term, sustainable returns for ...



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Mapping The Market

Suez Canal: Critical Waterway Comes to a Halt

 

Suez Canal: Critical Waterway Comes to a Halt

Courtesy of Marcus Lu, Visual Capitalist

The Suez Canal: A Critical Waterway Comes to a Halt

On March 23, 2021, a massive ship named Ever Given became lodged in the Suez Canal, completely blocking traffic in both directions. According to the Suez Canal Authority, the 1,312 foot long (400 m) container ship ran aground during a sandstorm that caused low visibility, impacting the ship’s navigation. The vessel is owned by Taiwanese shipping firm, Evergreen Marine.

With over 2...



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The Technical Traders

Adaptive Fibonacci Price Modeling System Suggests Market Peak May Be Near

Courtesy of Technical Traders

Our Adaptive Fibonacci Price Modeling system is suggesting a moderate price peak may be already setting up in the NASDAQ while the Dow Jones, S&P500, and Transportation Index continue to rally beyond the projected Fibonacci Price Expansion Levels.  This indicates that capital may be shifting away from the already lofty Technology sector and into Basic Materials, Financials, Energy, Consumer Staples, Utilities, as well as other sectors.

This type of a structural market shift indicates a move away from speculation and towards Blue Chip returns. It suggests traders and investors are expecting the US consumer to come back strong (or at least hold up the market at...



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Lee's Free Thinking

Texas, Florida, Arizona, Georgia - The Branch COVIDIANS Are Still Burning Down the House

 

Texas, Florida, Arizona, Georgia – The Branch COVIDIANS Are Still Burning Down the House

Courtesy of Lee Adler, WallStreetExaminer 

The numbers of new cases in some of the hardest hit COVID19 states have started to plateau, or even decline, over the past few days. A few pundits have noted it and concluded that it was a hopeful sign. 

Is it real or is something else going on? Like a restriction in the numbers of tests, or simply the inability to test enough, or are some people simply giving up on getting tested? Because as we all know from our dear leader, the less testing, the less...



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Insider Scoop

Economic Data Scheduled For Friday

Courtesy of Benzinga

  • Data on nonfarm payrolls and unemployment rate for March will be released at 8:30 a.m. ET.
  • US Services Purchasing Managers' Index for March is scheduled for release at 9:45 a.m. ET.
  • The ISM's non-manufacturing index for March will be released at 10:00 a.m. ET.
  • The Baker Hughes North American rig count report for the latest week is scheduled for release at 1:00 p.m. ET.
...

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Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

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