Posts Tagged ‘Economic Indicator’

ECRI LEADING INDEX RETRENCHING – NOW AT 3 WEEK LOW

Pragcap asks a good question: what is the value of a leading indicator that lags the market? – Ilene 

ECRI LEADING INDEX RETRENCHING – NOW AT 3 WEEK LOW

Courtesy of The Pragmatic Capitalist

After weeks of denying the potential of a recession and missing the entire stock market decline it now appears as though everyone’s favorite leading indicator is pointing to a double dip in the US economy. Lakshman Achuthan, managing director of ECRI, has consistently maintained that there was no double dip coming for the US economy and that this was merely a typical mid-recovery slowdown. He also emphasized the fact that a retrenchment in the ECRI would in fact be a warning signal of a double dip. With the ECRI’s leading index at a three week low and a retrenchment occurring Achuthan is sticking to his guns saying it is premature to say there could be a double dip (via Reuters):

“A measure of future U.S. economic growth fell to a 3-week low in the latest week, confirming the slow pace of the recovery, a research group said on Friday.

The Economic Cycle Research Institute, a New York-based independent forecasting group, said its Weekly Leading Index fell to 120.8 in the week ending August 20 from 122 the previous week.

That was the lowest since July 23, when it was 120.7. The index’s annualized growth rate rose to minus 10 percent from minus 10.2 percent a week earlier. That was the highest since July 9, when it stood at minus 9.8 percent.”

ECRI2 ECRI LEADING INDEX RETRENCHING   NOW AT 3 WEEK LOW

“With the WLI staying essentially flat for the last six weeks, following a nine-week plunge, it is premature to predict a new recession, though risks remain,” said Lakshman Achuthan, managing director of ECRI.

Unfortunately for equity investors, the admission that a double dip is on the table likely won’t come until well after the losses in stocks have occurred. At some point you have to wonder about the usefulness of a “leading indicator” that lags all market action… 


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The Most Important Economic Indicator You’ve Never Heard Of

Click here to sign up for a free subscription to the PSW Report.  It’s easy!  – Ilene 

The Most Important Economic Indicator You’ve Never Heard Of

Baltic dry indexBy Jeff Israely, courtesy of TIME

Those bullish on global economic recovery have their data points: the steady upward climb of world stock markets, three straight months of Chinese manufacturing expansion, the weak dollar. But there are still plenty of skeptics of a rapid and robust turnaround, with their own set of numbers to cite: continued bleeding of private-sector jobs in the US and Europe, more record lows in new home construction, and, er, the weak dollar. (Read "A Biden Show-and-Tell: How the Stimulus Has Created Jobs.")

Never before have so many experts and ordinary folk been so busy trying to gauge the timing and strength of the eventual worldwide economic rebound. One of the best indicators is found in the shipping industry. It’s global in scope and ever more indispensable in an economy so reliant on international commerce. Not surprisingly, perhaps, there is new evidence out on the open seas that both the bears and bulls can flag to help make their respective case. (See TIME 100 panelists on what’s next for capitalism.)

The Baltic Dry Index is the worldwide benchmark for shipping rates of raw materials, and it has registered some eye-popping gains over the past month. The London-based index registered its 23rd straight daily gain on Wednesday, closing at 4,291, its highest mark since September and the longest streak of gains since July 2006. Daily rates for the largest capsize ships, which typically carry iron ore, rose 6.8% on Wednesday to $93,197. Just five months ago, daily ship rental rates were hovering just above $2,000, about the price of a great seat on opening day at the new Yankee Stadium.

Baltic Index president Jeremy Penn cautions that shipping rates can sometimes fluctuate dramatically, and are often driven by specific factors such as carrier availability in key locations. Indeed the current boost is best explained by Chinese steel production demand and a shortage of the capsize vessels to haul the iron ore. Penn notes that it is not yet clear whether the core manufacturing that is turning again in China is linked to coming export demand or domestic infrastructure investment. "There are always quirks in the pricing," he…
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Zero Hedge

Hong Kong Rocked By Biggest March Yet After Extradition Bill Pulled; Millions Demand Lam Resign

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Despite City Executive Carrie Lam's major concession to the protest movement - that is, the (not really) 'indefinite' suspension of the extradition bill that catalyzed the protests - a planned protest march went ahead as scheduled on Sunday, marking the second consecutive Sunday of street protests in Hong Kong.

...



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Phil's Favorites

Colorado Hits $1 Billion In Marijuana State Revenue

Courtesy of ZeroHedge

Colorado has passed another major marijuana milestone, surpassing $1 billion in state revenue since it legalized the drug in 2014.

Source: Colorado.gov

Up to May of this year, Statista's Niall McCarthy notes that the state has seen more than $6 billion in total marijuana sales since ...



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Biotech

Consumer genetic testing customers stretch their DNA data further with third-party interpretation websites

Reminder: Pharmboy is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

Consumer genetic testing customers stretch their DNA data further with third-party interpretation websites

If you’ve got the raw data, why not mine it for more info? Sergey Nivens/Shutterstock.com

Courtesy of Sarah Catherine Nelson, University of Washington

Back in 2016, Helen (a pseudonym) took three different direct-to-consumer (DTC) genetic tests: AncestryDNA, 23andMe and FamilyTreeDNA. She saw genetic testing as a way...



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Kimble Charting Solutions

Gold Bugs Index Attempting 8-Year Breakout, Says Joe Friday

Courtesy of Chris Kimble.

Are Gold Bugs fans about to receive positive news they haven’t had in years? Possible!

This chart looks at the Gold Bugs Index (HUI) on a weekly basis over a couple of decades. The index has spent the majority of the past 20-year inside of rising channel (1).

The index hit the top of the channel in 2011, where it peaked and started creating a series of lower highs for the past 8-years, which has formed line (2).

The index is now kissing the underside of falling resistance and the underside the 2016/2017 lows at (3).

Joe Friday Just The Fa...



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Insider Scoop

Wedbush: Apple's Stock Could Gain $20-$25 From US-China Trade Deal

Courtesy of Benzinga.

The Sino-American trade dispute and near-term developments could prove to be a "major swing factor" for Apple Inc. (NASDAQ: AAPL), according to Wedbush.

The Analyst

Daniel Ives maintained an Outperform rating on Apple with an unchanged $235 pric...



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Chart School

Silver Review

Courtesy of Read the Ticker.

The folks in the federal reserve will debase the US dollar currency to an extreme degree silver will finally lift off the floor.. 

Note: Readers should re watch the silver back screen news video, here.

The following video looks at price action and Wyckoff logic.

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Chart in video

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If gold moves, silver wi...

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Digital Currencies

Cryptos Are Crashing As Asia Opens, Bitcoin Back Below $8k

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Having survived the day's bloodbath in US tech stocks, cryptos are crashing in the early Asian session, apparently playing catch-down to the day's de-risking.

While no catalyst is immediately evident, there are some reports noting 13 large global banks are preparing to launch digital versions of major global currencies next year, though we suspect this drop was more algorithmic that fundamental-driven.

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ValueWalk

More Examples Of "Typical Tesla "wise-guy scamminess"

By Jacob Wolinsky. Originally published at ValueWalk.

Stanphyl Capital’s letter to investors for the month of March 2019.

rawpixel / Pixabay

Friends and Fellow Investors:

For March 2019 the fund was up approximately 5.5% net of all fees and expenses. By way of comparison, the S&P 500 was up approximately 1.9% while the Russell 2000 was down approximately 2.1%. Year-to-date 2019 the fund is up approximately 12.8% while the S&P 500 is up approximately 13.6% and the ...



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Members' Corner

Despacito - How to Make Money the Old-Fashioned Way - SLOWLY!

Are you ready to retire?  

For most people, the purpose of investing is to build up enough wealth to allow you to retire.  In general, that's usually enough money to reliably generate a year's worth of your average income, each year into your retirement so that that, plus you Social Security, should be enough to pay your bills without having to draw down on your principle.

Unfortunately, as the last decade has shown us, we can't count on bonds to pay us more than 3% and the average return from the stock market over the past 20 years has been erratic - to say the least - with 4 negative years (2000, 2001, 2002 and 2008) and 14 positives, though mostly in the 10% range on the positives.  A string of losses like we had from 2000-02 could easily wipe out a decades worth of gains.

Still, the stock market has been better over the last 10 (7%) an...



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Mapping The Market

It's Not Capitalism, it's Crony Capitalism

A good start from :

It's Not Capitalism, it's Crony Capitalism

Excerpt:

The threat to America is this: we have abandoned our core philosophy. Our first principle of this nation as a meritocracy, a free-market economy, where competition drives economic decision-making. In its place, we have allowed a malignancy to fester, a virulent pus-filled bastardized form of economics so corrosive in nature, so dangerously pestilent, that it presents an extinction-level threat to America – both the actual nation and the “idea” of America.

This all-encompassing mutant corruption saps men’s souls, crushes opportunities, and destroys economic mobility. Its a Smash & Grab system of ill-gotten re...



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OpTrader

Swing trading portfolio - week of September 11th, 2017

Reminder: OpTrader is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

This post is for all our live virtual trade ideas and daily comments. Please click on "comments" below to follow our live discussion. All of our current  trades are listed in the spreadsheet below, with entry price (1/2 in and All in), and exit prices (1/3 out, 2/3 out, and All out).

We also indicate our stop, which is most of the time the "5 day moving average". All trades, unless indicated, are front-month ATM options. 

Please feel free to participate in the discussion and ask any questions you might have about this virtual portfolio, by clicking on the "comments" link right below.

To learn more about the swing trading virtual portfolio (strategy, performance, FAQ, etc.), please click here ...



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Promotions

Free eBook - "My Top Strategies for 2017"

 

 

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Phil has a chapter in a newly-released eBook that we think you’ll enjoy.

In My Top Strategies for 2017, Phil's chapter is Secret Santa’s Inflation Hedges for 2017.

This chapter isn’t about risk or leverage. Phil present a few smart, practical ideas you can use as a hedge against inflation as well as hedging strategies designed to assist you in staying ahead of the markets.

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About Phil:

Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

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Ilene is editor and affiliate program coordinator for PSW. She manages the site market shadows, archives, more. Contact Ilene to learn about our affiliate and content sharing programs.

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