Posts Tagged ‘EWJ’

Thank GDP it’s Friday – Reality Check?

SPY WEEKLYWill the GDP be bad enough to be good?

As I said yesterday, bad news is now good news as Bernanke promised to crank up the presses if the economy stumbles and yesterday we had terrible jobs numbers and an absolutely awful Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Survey and Eurozone Economic Confidence continued to decline and that was capped off with an S&P downgrade of Spain.  

RALLY TIME – of course!  The markets broke right over our 50% lines, forcing us to add a few bullish positions for purely technical reasons while we wait and see when or if the madness will end.  

We've already had a few hours of extensive conversation about the economic situation in Member Chat so let's just focus on how we can play the next half of the retrace back to our highs at Dow 13,300, S&P 1,420, Nas 3,200, NYSE 8,300 and Russell 850.  We'll still be watching those 50% lines (see yesterday's post for levels and chart) but it was easy money this morning grabbing Nikkei Futures (/NKD) off the 9,500 line in Member Chat and already (8:23) the index is back to 9,550 and, at $5 per point per contract – the Egg McMuffins are paid for. 

EWJ WEEKLYThe BOJ dropped 10,000,000,000,000 Yen on the economy this morning, expanding their asset purchase program to 40Tn Yen and it DISAPPOINTED the market and the Nikkei fell from 9,700 to 9,500 but we were up nice and early and, since the other Global Indexes seemed happy enough to ignore Spain's double downgrade (in fact, Spain is up 1% this morning on the bad news), we figured it would only be a matter of time before the Nikkei futures came off the floor to join them.   

As you can see from David Fry's charts, the Nikkei has been tracking the S&P very closely and the divergence was a bit silly.  What's actually silly is the way the S&P is going but we'll take the quick 50 points and run ahead of the GDP, where we HOPE the markets get a cold slap in the face from a GDP report that I predicted would be a miss from 2.9% expectations.  

8:30 Update:  2.2%!  That is TERRIBLE!!!  Not just a little terrible but TERRIBLE!!!  Business investment is crashing, structures are down 12%, Government…
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Will We Hold It Wednesday – Weak Bounces and Beige Books

Are you buying the dips?

We're not yet.  Notice that we've now blown 4 of our 5 Must Hold lines (the Dow never did make theirs, which kept us bearish in the first place) and, technically, the S&P failed to hold 1,360 as well but close enough to avoid panic so far.  

Falling from 1,420 to 1,360 is 60 points so we'll be looking for a weak bounce (20% retracement) to 1,372 and a strong bounce (40%) past 1,384 would get us back in a buying mood but let's not count those chickens before they're hatched. 

France and Germany are bouncing 1.5% this morning as the Euro stages a recovery back to that critical $1.31 line and the UK is up 0.77% (7:40) with the Pound back at $1.59.  We noted in Member Chat that this seems like SNB buying to support that 1.20 line on EUR/CHF as we;re certainly not getting a move back up in copper ($3.65), Natural gas ($2.04) or gasoline ($3.24) that we'd expect if we had any additional stimulus or some sort of positive economic data.  Even gold is down this morning ($1,659) so I do not have a lot of faith in this early-morning market movement so far.  

Clearly we're not going to get excited about anything until our indexes can at least take back those 50 dma's (red lines) and the Dollar holding it's line at 79.60 is also bad news for the bulls.  To keep that 1.5% gain in perspective, it's 88 points – back to 6,695 and we're down from 7,150 so "only" 5 more 1.5% up days to go and Germany is back on top.  

SPY DAILYThis is always the tricky part about retracements – it's not so much what you get on the bounce (not even 20% on the DAX), but is the bounce going to be sustainable to get you to 6,850, which is the 20 dma (3% higher than we are now) and then to 7,000, which is the falling 50 dma – 5% over the current mark?  

Keep in mind that the longer it takes to retake the 50 dma, the more it curves down and then you are running into a declining 50 dma, which has a much better chance of rejecting you – especially as you are running out of gas after having to climb 5% just to get there.…
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Fake-Out Thursday – Dollar Sacrificed on an Altar of Lies

The Dollar is down 1%.

That makes the markets go up 1%.  Mostly, the Dollar is down based on a FABRICATION in Uncle Rupert's Wall Street Journal – the most widely read financial publication in the World (next to Philstockworld, of course!).  Although Jon Hilsenrath, the WSJ chief economist who started this nonsense made it VERY CLEAR that the story was predicated on IF they decide to do more "capital I, capital F," Jon says – THEN this is the kind of bond buying that might happen.  

That's all it took yesterday to send the S&P up 1% but, if there were a volume measure, you'd see that, on the Dow, 25M shares were traded before 11, and just 35M shares between 11 and 3:30 and then 50M shares were traded between 3:30 and 4pm, almost 100% down volume.  The only people that are fooled by these word games are the beautiful sheeple who are so well-trained to buy the F'ing dips that even a misstatement like this sends them into a buying frenzy.  

Ah, fresh meat – we love it!  Oil (/CL) was back at $107 this morning and we already caught a nice dip off our favorite sell spot in Member Chat and gold is giving us a good short entry at $1,700 (/YG) as well.  All we have to do is watch the Dollar and see if it can hold 79.40 once real trading begins.  The Euro is up at $1.324, off the $1.31 line yesterday so up 1% and the Pound is up from $1.57 yesterday to $1.58 this morning and the Yen is loving it at 81.71 (weaker) as they've been solidly backing the Euro over at the BOJ this month and the Nikkei futures (/NKD) shot up from 9,500 yesterday to 9,835 this morning (3.5%) on a 1% drop in their currency so this would be a great spot (below 9.850) to short the Nikkei.  

SPY DAILYFor the Futures impaired, the EWJ April $10 puts at .20 should be a fun way to play the Nikkei reversing, assuming reality sets in at some point.  It's 8:25 now and oil
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Which Way Wednesday?

SPY 5 MINUTEWheeeeeeeeeeeee!  

I love the smell of capitulation in the morning (illustrated nicely by David Fry).  It smells like — opportunity.  We haven’t had a good bottom-fishing expedition in ages and it’s amazing to think that less than two weeks ago I was having to tell our Members NOT to BUYBUYBUY at the top.  On Friday, July 22nd, when Jimmy Cramer was crowing Thursday night over "29 of 30 Dow Stocks" closing higher as if that meant you should buy everything that wasn’t nailed down, I was warning that the new EU rescue fund only indicated things were worse than they seemed.  My comment that morning (7/22) was:

I like shorting the Futures here:  S&P (/ES) at 1,346, Nas (/NQ) 2,415, Dow (/YM) 12,720 and Rut (/TF) 842.6 – as long as 74.20 hold on the Dollar, we should get a bit of a sell off so these are levels to look for as the Dollar heads back over that line but we can scale into position between 75.20 and 75.10 but, below that, too dangerous!   Oil is good too below $99.50 with tight stops (now $99.66 so a patience game) – couldn’t quite get back to $100 ahead of the EU open.  

I was wrong (so far) on shorting gold as our GLL Aug $22 calls have fallen from .50 to .10 (we rolled down to the $20s but those are not faring much better at the moment) but that was much more than made up for with the MASSIVE gains on the short futures as well as huge winning spreads like that morning’s Alert to Members, where my trade idea was to buy the SQQQ Aug $21/24 bull call spread for .90 and sell the AAPL weekly $375 puts for .80 for net .10 on the $3 spread.  Of course the AAPL puts expired worthless and SQQQ is now at $25.29 and the spread is $1.85 so up 1,750% so far (and half off the table with stops on the rest at this point, of course).  

THAT’s why we love our disaster hedges – they really help balance out your virtual portfolio in the event of an actual disaster with every $1,000 hedged paying $17,500 on that play.  We then turn around (like today) and cash out that money and use it to buy
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Make Billion$ With StockTwits (and Win a Free Quarter!)

Billions!  

That's right, if you followed Philstockworld on Stocktwits this past month and followed our trade ideas, you could have made Billions of Dollars.  Not bad but that's only a tiny portion of what you get at PSW every day.  Needless to say, we've had a good month but it's no fun being right if nobody knows it so let's review a month of Tweets and also make it worth your while to send others to Our StockTwits Link and follow us there.  

For the month of July, every new follower will be entered in a random drawing and one will be selected to win a free 1-year subscription to the PSW Report – our twice-daily Email that gives you access to all of our non-Premium posts as well as Stock World Weekly.  If you are already a paying PSW subscriber and win this drawing, we will give you a 3-month extension of your Current Membership Level instead added to your current subscription.  

If you are a Member and your friends subscribe and tweet us your name – one of those named members will also be the winner of a 3-month extension of that member's current level.  The more friends you have, the better the chances to win!  

We're doing this because we need to build up our social networking presence so I've been tweeting more in June.  You can go to our StockTwits site and see all 45 Tweets posted since June 1st (there are many also before that) but I'm just going to review the ones that were less generic (we auto-tweet my posts) to give you an idea of what kind of value your friends can get out of this free service:

 

 Phil Davis 

 


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Weekend Reading – The Good, the Bad and Fukushima

Hey, remember Fukushima? 

Arnie Gundersen is freaking me out!  Gundersen is no tin-foil hat guy, he’s the chief engineer of energy consulting company Fairewinds Associates and a former nuclear power industry executive who served as an expert witness in the investigation of the Three Mile Island accident.  Gundersen has said that the U.S. nuclear industry and regulators need to reexamine disaster planning and worst-case scenarios, especially in reactors such as Vermont Yankee, which have the same design as the crippled nuclear plant at the center of the 2011 Japanese Fukushima nuclear emergency. Vermont Yankee and similar plants are vulnerable to a similar cascade of events as in Japan.

The Nikkei had fallen down to 8,227 from 10,678 (23%) at the quake and has since recovered 10,017 on May 2nd but was back to 9,648 on Friday (3.6% off the bounce) and the 50 dma has now formed an aptly-named "death cross" below the 200 dma.  Japan is already on the hook for $124Bn from the earthquake and will also have to cover TEPCO’s $31Bn (so far) liability as the alternative is let the country’s biggest energy supplier go bankrupt and that would be lights out on their economy.    

Warning: Do not watch this video on a full stomach:  

This is one of the things holding down the financials as there is no way to know right now, what the real damages are going to be from this ongoing disaster for the insurance companies (and the banks that lend them money).  As Gundersen observed on Friday and as is not being reported officially, two other reactors are seriously damaged.  A worker at the plant dropped dead on Saturday and Japanese banks and Insurance companies are all suffering with Daiici Life’s net profit down 66% from last year due to the accident.  

Accident is a funny word isn’t it?  With 435 active plant and 250 more under construction, even if they are 99.9% safe, that would still mean we get an accident like this every year.  Hopefully they are 99.99% safe and we only have a major catastrophe every 10 years – wouldn’t that be nice but, so far, that’s not the case as we’ve had about 16 in 50 years with 9 of those considered "major."  So accident applies to this situation in the same way
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Thoughtful Thursday – What’s Our Money Worth?

How low can we go? 

I made a bottom call on the Dollar at 73 (and a top call on the markets) last week, not because the Dollar is strong but because the alternatives aren’t so hot either.  While we have dipped a bit below that line, we are in serious danger of recovering now and I say danger because – as I have pointed out in Tuesday’s post and discussed yesterday as well and as we have long been discussing in Stock World Weekly, the recent equity and commodity gains are nothing more than an illusion based on the fact that their value has been calculated in an ever-weakening dollar.    

This is not a small correlation – this is almost an exact correlation between the Dollar (using the UUP ultra-ETF), the S&P (red), oil (green) and gold (gold – that one worked out).  I couldn’t put silver (SLV) on the chart because silver is up a ridiculous 120% in the same period and distorts the rest (was 170% last week) but you can view that set here.  Note how we’re pulling back this week just because the Dollar STOPPED going lower – what will happen if it actually goes higher?

As I pointed out on Monday, silver was beyond ridiculous when you look at it in terms of the value of your home. The "value" of your home has dropped 78% when priced in silver in just 3 years. Are we to extrapolate that in 3 more years you will have to accept an pound of silver for your home?  Surely you have more silver IN YOUR HOME than that!  

Homes are something people NEED, food is another thing people NEED, fuel is something people WANT, while metals are things people DESIRE.  Thus, as we move from NEED to DESIRE, prices are able to get less and less realistic.  This is, in part because we do not have enough metals or even fuel to fulfill everyone’s desires but food is grown and houses are built as the need arises.  Yes there are occasional gluts and shortages but, Malthus aside (and, over 100 years later, can we finally put that aside?), we make enough stuff to fulfill people’s needs – most shortages are a distribution problem – including starvation in Africa, a problem that was addressed accurately by the late Sam Kinnison:  

Of course…
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Monday Morning: Might Moody’s, Merkel & Meltdowns Matter?

[GERPOL]Oh, where to begin this morning?  

We already covered "Big Trouble in Little Tokyo" in our Weekend Reading post so we’ll just say things are still sucking in Japan.  The Nikkei lost 0.6% in this morning’s trading but it was Angela Merkel who lost control of Germany this weekend as nuclear concerns gave a huge victory in a state election to the Green (environmental) party who, along with the Social Democrats (what it sounds like) now control 47.1% of Germany’s coalition-based Government vs just 44.3% held by Merkel’s Christian Democrats and her allies in the Free Democrat party

As a stand-alone, Germany’s GDP is about $3.5Tn, the World’s 4th largest economy, behind Japan’s $5.4Tn (maybe less at the moment) and China’s $5.8Tn and, of course, our $15Tn juggernaut of an economy.  Together with the EU, however, Germany is part of a $16Tn economic union where it is followed by France ($2.5Tn and Sarkozy also took an electoral hit this weekend!), Italy ($2Tn), Spain ($1.4Tn) and then you drop down to The Netherlands at $770Bn.  We know what kind of shape Italy and Spain are in so keep in mind that it’s Germany and France who run the EU – no matter who is "in charge."  

Moody’s put another nail in Spain’s coffin this morning, downgrading 30 Spanish banks by one or more notches.  Interestingly, they left STD and BBVA alone  and I’m liking STD with their 9% dividend as money is likely to be drawn away from the smaller banks and moved to the relative safety of STD.  STD is trading at $11.94 and they can be covered with Sept $11 calls at $1.60 for a net $10.34 entry or paired with the sale of the Sept $11 puts at $1.05 to drop the basis to $9.29.  That gives you a net on the buy/write at $9.29/10.14, which is a 15% discount if put to you at $10.14 or called away with an 18% profit if called away at $11 in 9 months – PLUS the 9% annualized dividend!  

Not surprisingly, Germany and the rest of the EU rushed through the final approval of their now $987Bn bailout fund as that was the number one issue that was crushing Merkel’s party and it’s not entirely sure Germany will have the will, going forward, to commit any more capital.  The agreement requires 80Bn euros…
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Bearish Signals Appear in Japan ETF Options

 Today’s tickers: EWJ, GIS, XING & DLTR

EWJ - iShares MSCI Japan Index Fund – A couple of bearish options trades on the EWJ caught our eye today with shares in the fund dropping nearly 2.0% at the start of the session to an intraday low of $10.42. Shares in the ETF pared some of the morning’s losses this afternoon, and currently stand 0.95% lower on the day at $10.53. The price of the underlying shares at $10.53 represents a 13.0% recovery off of the EWJ’s post-earthquake low of $9.24. One investor appears to have taken a medium-term bearish stance on the fund by selling calls to offset the cost of buying put options. The trader sold 14,250 calls at the June $11 strike for a premium of $0.31 each, and purchased the same number of puts at the lower June $10 strike at a premium of $0.44 apiece. Net premium paid for the spread amounts to $0.13 per contract. The investor profits if the EWJ’s shares decline 6.3% in the next few months to slip beneath the effective breakeven point to the downside at $9.87 by June expiration. Meanwhile, substantial volume in April contract calls today appears to be the work of an investor taking down one leg of a bullish risk reversal initiated last Tuesday. Around 105,000 calls sold today at the April $11 strike for a premium of $0.08 per contract. Most of the volume at that strike likely represents the closing sale of some 102,500 calls that were originally purchased last week. The original transaction involved the sale of 102,500 puts at the April $8.0 strike for a premium of $0.10 each, against the purchase of the same number of calls at the April $11 strike at a premium of $0.14 apiece. Perhaps the trader is less optimistic about the prospects for a near-term rebound in the price of the underlying fund today than he was eight days ago. Over 260,000 option contracts have changed hands on the EWJ as of 1:30pm in New York.…
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Wary Wednesday – Groundhog Was Wrong but Fisher Sees Inflation

We are having yet another snow storm in New Jersey.

So much for trusting small rodents to forecast the weather but at least one of the rats at the Fed is finally seeing the shadow of inflation as Dallas Bank President, Richard Fisher said every single one of the 50 business executives he speaks with on a regular basis is looking to raise prices to consumers.  

"That concerns me," says one of our nation's top monetary strategists.  The regional bank chief said he personally surveys about 50 businesses, more than most of his colleagues at the Fed, and that the position on prices is “without exception, in every sector in every size, whether they’re public or private.”  

While I guess we should applaud Fisher for being the first Fed Governor to recognize inflation in our economy – I suppose I should also point out to the Fed that there is a preponderance of evidence that indicates, at this point, that the Earth is not flat – just to help them get caught up with the rest of us.  Still Fisher is somewhat of a prodigy among the slim pickings we have when selecting from Fed brains:

Barring some extraordinary circumstances I cannot foresee, I would vote against the QE3 or even a tapering of the current program. I don't think it's necessary, It's now up to the fiscal authorities to provide the right incentives for businesses to hire more American people, Our job is done. Now the pressure and the job is in the hands of our elected representatives who have the only power to tax and to spend.

TAX and spend?!?  Oh no he didn't!  That's Liberal Commie talk if ever I heard it and, if the Fed is going to base their own policy on the assumption that this Government will either tax OR spend – then we are already doomed because the Keynesians left the building last November and are unlikely to be invited back in until we have our own nuclear melt-down to throw money at (or if the banks need money, of course).  

Speaking of melt-downs, the iodine in the Tokyo water supply has been deemed "unsafe for infants."   While not certain, officials said they suspect…
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Zero Hedge

Trapped (When Will We Know 'They' Lost Control?)

Courtesy of ZeroHedge View original post here.

Authored by Sven Henrich via NorthmanTrader.com,

What? You thought a 850+ point drop in the $DJIA would result in a down week? No Sir. The unholy alliance has struck again. Massive jawboning by multiple administration officials about how well the China trade deal was going, a favorable jobs report and above all, the US Federal Reserve, all contributed to a furious rally to make markets green for the week on (whe...



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Phil's Favorites

The Portfolio Gap

 

The Portfolio Gap

Courtesy of 

Dalbar is known for publishing a study on returns from equity funds compared to the returns that investors capture in those same funds. Every year reveals the same message: The average investor, with remarkable consistency, underperforms their own investments, ostensibly by buying and selling at inopportune times.

The methodology behind the study has been under assault for at least the last 15 years. Here is ...



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Digital Currencies

Visualizing The New Cryptocurrency Economy

Courtesy of ZeroeHedge

Over a decade ago, the birth of Bitcoin sparked a revolution in the digital world - and just last year, the number of active cryptocurrencies jumped from roughly 1,600 to over 3,000 worldwide.

As Visual Capitalist's Ashley Viens details below, cryptocurrencies have now evolved past simple digital currencies, offering solutions to meet the complex needs of modern financial markets.

Today’s graphic from Abra visualizes the complex, ever-evolving cryptocurrency ecosys...



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Kimble Charting Solutions

Gold Miners Indicator Attempting Multi-Year Breakout, Says Joe Friday

Courtesy of Chris Kimble

Are Gold Mining stocks about to be sent a bullish signal they haven’t received in years? Possible says Joe Friday.

This chart looks at the Senior Miner/Junior miner (GDXJ/GDX) ratio over the past few years. Historically when the ratio is heading up, miners tend to do very well.

The ratio has created a series of lower highs just below the falling line (1), since the summer of 2016. The ratio is currently testing the strong falling resistance line and the June 2019 highs at (2).

Joe Friday Just The Facts Ma’am; If the ratio succeeds in a double breakout at (2), it sends miners a long-awaited bullish message.

...

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Insider Scoop

Scott Galloway Calls For Twitter's Board To Replace 'Part-Time CEO' Jack Dorsey Amid Africa Move Plans

Courtesy of Benzinga

A shareholder in Twitter Inc. (NASDAQ: TWTR) and New York University business professor wrote an open letter Friday to the company's board calling for the replacement of CEO Jack Dorsey.

What To Know

Scott Galloway, who owns more than 330,000 shares of Twitter stock a...



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Lee's Free Thinking

Chart Shows the Fed Ramping Up Not QE - Funding Almost All Treasury Issuance

 

Chart Shows the Fed Ramping Up Not QE – Funding Almost All Treasury Issuance

Courtesy of Lee Adler, Wall Street Examiner 

The Fed is ramping up “Not QE” .

The Fed bought $2.2 billion in notes today in its POMO, “not QE,” operations. Actually $2.15 billion because they sold back a whole $50 million. Must have been a little glitch in the force.

This brings the Fed’s total outright purchases of Treasuries to $170 billion since it started Not QE, on September 17.

It also did $107 billion in gross new repo loans to Primary Dealers to buy Tre...



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Chart School

Silver stock taking the sector higher

Courtesy of Read the Ticker

As the US economy begins to show late cycle characteristics like: GDP slowing, higher inflation, higher wage costs, CEO confidence slump. 

Previous Post: Gold Stocks Review

The big players in the market are looking for the next swing off good value lows. This means more money is finding it way into the gold and silver sector, and it is said gold and silver stocks actually lead the metal prices.

The cycle below shows prices are ready to move in the months ahead (older chart re posted).


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Members' Corner

Sacha Baron Cohen Uses ADL Speech to Tear Apart Mark Zuckerberg and Facebook

 

Sacha Baron Cohen Uses ADL Speech to Tear Apart Mark Zuckerberg and Facebook

By Matt Wilstein

Excerpt:

Sacha Baron Cohen accepted the International Leadership Award at the Anti-Defamation League’s Never is Now summit on anti-Semitism and hate Thursday. And the comedian and actor used his keynote speech to single out the one Jewish-American who he believes is doing the most to facilitate “hate and violence” in America: Facebook founder and CEO Mark Zuckerberg.

He began with a joke at the Trump administration’s expense. “Thank you, ADL, for this recognition and your work in fighting racism, hate and bigotry,” Baron Cohen said, according to his prepared...



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The Technical Traders

VIX Warns Of Imminent Market Correction

Courtesy of Technical Traders

The VIX is warning that a market peak may be setting up in the global markets and that investors should be cautious of the extremely low price in the VIX. These extremely low prices in the VIX are typically followed by some type of increased volatility in the markets.

The US Federal Reserve continues to push an easy money policy and has recently begun acquiring more dept allowing a deeper move towards a Quantitative Easing stance. This move, along with investor confidence in the US markets, has prompted early warning signs that the market has reached near extreme levels/peaks. 

Vix Value Drops Before Monthly Expiration

When the VIX falls to levels below 12~13, this typically v...



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Biotech

Why telling people with diabetes to use Walmart insulin can be dangerous advice

Reminder: We are available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

Why telling people with diabetes to use Walmart insulin can be dangerous advice

A vial of insulin. Prices for the drug, crucial for those with diabetes, have soared in recent years. Oleksandr Nagaiets/Shutterstock.com

Courtesy of Jeffrey Bennett, Vanderbilt University

About 7.4 million people ...



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Mapping The Market

How IPOs Are Priced

Via Jean Luc 

Funny but probably true:

...

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Promotions

Free eBook - "My Top Strategies for 2017"

 

 

Here's a free ebook for you to check out! 

Phil has a chapter in a newly-released eBook that we think you’ll enjoy.

In My Top Strategies for 2017, Phil's chapter is Secret Santa’s Inflation Hedges for 2017.

This chapter isn’t about risk or leverage. Phil present a few smart, practical ideas you can use as a hedge against inflation as well as hedging strategies designed to assist you in staying ahead of the markets.

Some other great content in this free eBook includes:

 

·       How 2017 Will Affect Oil, the US Dollar and the European Union

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About Phil:

Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

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