Posts Tagged ‘Fitch’

Chinese Banks Face Default Risk on 23% of $1.1 Trillion Loans; Chinese Rating Agency Criticizes Moody’s, Fitch, S&P

Chinese Banks Face Default Risk on 23% of $1.1 Trillion Loans; Chinese Rating Agency Criticizes Moody’s, Fitch, S&P

Courtesy of Mish 

Here is an interesting pair of stories at odds with each other, the first article is about problem loans at Chinese banks, the second is about a rating agency mud fight.

Bloomberg reports Chinese Banks See Risks in 23% of $1.1 Trillion Loans

Chinese banks may struggle to recoup about 23 percent of the 7.7 trillion yuan ($1.1 trillion) they’ve lent to finance local government infrastructure projects, according to a person with knowledge of data collected by the nation’s regulator.

About half of all loans need to be serviced by secondary sources including guarantors because the ventures can’t generate sufficient revenue, the person said, declining to be identified because the information is confidential. The China Banking Regulatory Commission has told banks to write off non-performing project loans by the end of this year, the person said.

The nation’s five-largest banks, including Agricultural Bank of China Ltd., plan to raise as much as $53.5 billion to replenish capital after the sector extended a record $1.4 trillion in credit last year.

“In China now, it is the same as the people getting loans in Phoenix here in the U.S. three years ago,” said Vikas Pershad, chief executive officer of Chicago-based Veda Investments LLC. “People who want money get money, and then they all lose track of it.”

Local governments set up the financing vehicles to fund projects such as highways and airports due to limits on their ability to directly borrow money. The central government this year restricted borrowing on concern money isn’t being used for viable projects.

“The issue is symptomatic of the way the stimulus package was rolled out in 2008,” said Nicholas Consonery, Asia specialist at the Eurasia Group. “It is difficult for local governments to finance these projects. It is written under the Chinese constitution that local governments cannot offer their own debt.”

Chinese Rating Agency Criticizes Moody’s, Fitch, S&P

The Financial Times reports China rating agency condemns rivals

The head of China’s largest credit rating agency has slammed his western counterparts for causing the global financial crisis and said that as the world’s largest creditor nation China should have a bigger say in how governments and their debt are rated.

“The western rating agencies are politicised and highly ideological and they


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Fitch Downgrades Illinois and Warns of Further Actions as Budget Gap Widens

Fitch Downgrades Illinois and Warns of Further Actions as Budget Gap Widens

Courtesy of JESSE’S CAFÉ AMÉRICAIN

Illinois is financially the fifth largest US state with a 2008 GDP of approximately $633 Billion.

To put this in perspective, the 2008 GDP for the nation of Greece was approximately $357 Billion.

The largest state is California with $1.8 Trillion in 2008 GDP, roughly on a par with Russia, Spain, or Brazil,

The US is also considering accounting rule changes that will require the states to more accurately reflect and more fully fund their pension obligations for government employees.

The problem of States’ debt is made more problematic by decreasing state tax revenues and the enormous demands of the US Federal government for more tax revenues on their citizens’ incomes, and the crowding effect in markets by the record amounts of sovereign debt issuance which is largely short term and must be rolled over regularly.

The Bond Buyer
Fitch Downgrades Illinois to A-minus
By Yvette Shields
March 29, 2010

CHICAGO — Fitch Ratings late Monday downgraded Illinois’ general obligation rating one notch to A-minus and warned of possible further action by leaving the state’s credit on negative watch ahead of $1.3 billion of short- and long-term GO issuance in three deals over the coming weeks.

Gov. Pat Quinn had hoped that the General Assembly’s passage last week of pension reforms would stave off any negative rating actions and buy the state some additional time to address a nearly $13 billion budget deficit and liquidity crisis in the current legislative session.

But Fitch analysts said the state’s challenges are too severe and persistent. They believe it is unlikely the fiscal 2011 budget will “sufficiently address either the annual operating deficit or accumulated liabilities.”

The results of the current session will drive analysts’ decision as to whether Illinois holds on to its current rating level. Fitch dropped the state’s $23.4 billion of GO debt two notches down to its current level last July.

Fitch’s action follows Standard & Poor’s decision on Friday to place the state’s A-plus rating on negative CreditWatch. Moody’s Investors Service on Monday affirmed its A2 rating and negative outlook.


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The End of Sovereign AAA?

The End of Sovereign AAA?

Courtesy of Marla Singer of Zero Hedge

Woman walking on rope strung between two cliffs, carrying a large brick with dollar signs on it

Fitch "ups the rhetoric" in the continuing assault on sovereign AAA.  Today Spain, the United Kingdom and France are on the chopping block.  Though the report, "Unpleasant Fiscal Arithmetic for Sovereigns in ’10" addresses some of the most looming issues for the sovereigns, it is hard to see any of the ratings agencies as more than reporting entities, rather than predictive ones. 

Major ‘AAA’ sovereign governments need to articulate more credible and stronger fiscal consolidation plans during the course of 2010 to underpin confidence in the sustainability of public finances over the medium term and the commitment to low and stable inflation, according to Fitch Ratings in its Sovereign Outlook report. The capacity to finance large budget deficits over a prolonged period without financing stress is not in itself sufficient to preserve ‘AAA’ status.

Released before a long holiday weekend?  Too little too late?  Not a strong case for "truth to power" courage from the big "F".

 


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Calpers Sues The Rating Agencies For Bad Investment Advice

Tom Lindmark discusses the lawsuits resulting from losses due in part to rating agencies’ seemingly negligent advice. I don’t fully agree with his conclusion, though do in part – there’s plenty of responsibility to spread around, and a "day in court" is one way to divide it up. – Ilene

Courtesy of Tom Lindmark, BUT THEN WHAT?

Calpers Sues The Rating Agencies For Bad Investment Advice

rating agencies, lawsuits, bad advice

Just the first of many lawsuits of this type that will be coming down the pike but this one has some rich irony to it.

Calpers, the California retirement system manager, has filed suit against Moody’s, Standard & Poors and Fitch claiming that they are responsible for over $1 billion of losses it incurred in investments in structured investment vehicles which owned exotic financial assets.

From the NYT:

The suit from the California Public Employees Retirement System, or Calpers, a public fund known for its shareholder activism, is the latest sign of renewed scrutiny over the role that credit ratings agencies played in providing positive reports about risky securities issued during the subprime boom that have lost nearly all of their value.

The lawsuit, filed late last week in California Superior Court in San Francisco, is focused on a form of debt called structured investment vehicles, highly complex packages of securities made up of a variety of assets, including subprime mortgages. Calpers bought $1.3 billion of them in 2006; they collapsed in 2007 and 2008.

Calpers maintains that in giving these packages of securities the agencies’ highest credit rating, the three top ratings agencies — Moody’s Investors Service, Standard & Poor’s and Fitch — “made negligent misrepresentation” to the pension fund, which provides retirement benefits to 1.6 million public employees in California.

The AAA ratings given by the agencies “proved to be wildly inaccurate and unreasonably high,” according to the suit, which also said that the methods used by the rating agencies to assess these packages of securities “were seriously flawed in conception and incompetently applied.”

OK, that’s standard stuff and we will see a lot more of it. Who prevails is an open question, however, I think that if the tide does turn against the rating agencies then the legal actions are most likely money down a dry hole. There’s no way that the agencies have the funds to cover a wave of negative judgements. But here’s the most intriguing…
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Zero Hedge

Futures Jump, Gold Soars As Dollar Destruction Accelerates

Courtesy of ZeroHedge View original post here.

Everyone is piling into everything.

That's probably the best way to describe the market frenzy this week which has seen an all time high in the Nasdaq and gold, an all time low 10Y yields, and an S&P that is just shy of its all time highs.

Sure enough, on Wednesday, gold jumped to a new record high pushing further past $2,000...

... as the dollar tumbled on U.S. Treasury yields falling to fresh all time lows, and expectations of mo...



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Phil's Favorites

Dawg on the Wall

 

Dawg on the Wall

Courtesy of Scott Galloway at No Mercy/No Malice@profgalloway 

(originally pu...



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ValueWalk

2020: The Total Collapse Of American Society

By G.R. Oyper. Originally published at ValueWalk.

To lend some context to what I am about to say in this piece, I would like to begin with a brief discussion of the world, specifically America, as we know it currently in August of 2020. We have been ‘flattening the curve’ of Coronavirus (COVID-19) through the 15 Days to Slow the Spread initiative for exactly 140 days as of today, and it will be 141 days tomorrow.

Deaths where I live were statistically insignificant for the last several weeks, and across the U.S. broadly, deaths are down dramatically and hospitals are no longer at risk of being overwhelmed. They haven’t been at risk for some time now.

To put this even more pla...



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Chart School

RTT browsing latest..

Courtesy of Read the Ticker

Please review a collection of WWW browsing results. The information here is delayed by a few months, members get the most recent content.



Date Found: Sunday, 29 March 2020, 07:00:37 PM

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Comment: Silver Shorts Are In a Bind | Ted Butler youtu.be/qQc0AoJp-Q8



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Comment: 5 Questions From You for Luke Gromen youtu.be/nVZD_fuxbQE


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The Technical Traders

THE MARKETS POST COVID AND DEBT MONETIZATION

Courtesy of Technical Traders

Chris joins Boom Bust host Sara Montes de Oca and Michael Pento of Pento Portfolio Strategies to talk FAANG, corporate earnings, the Feds, the growing US debt, and pandemic trading.  How will the markets react given permanent changes in how people work and live their lives? What will happen given the Feds strategy of debt monetization?

Learn more about our latest research and alerts on Gold, Silver, Oil, and Equities at www.TheTechnicalTraders.com.

...

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Biotech/COVID-19

There aren't enough batteries to electrify all cars - focus on trucks and buses instead

 

There aren't enough batteries to electrify all cars — focus on trucks and buses instead

Garbage trucks, buses and the van that delivers your Amazon purchases are all prime candidates for electrification. (Shutterstock)

Courtesy of Cameron Roberts, Carleton University

We need to change our transportation system, and we need to do it quickly.

Road transportation is a major consumer of fossil fuels, contributing 16 per cent of all human-caused greenhouse gas emissions, which warm up the Earth’s atmosphere and cause changes to the climate. It also ...



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Kimble Charting Solutions

Here's How To Buy The Top Stocks In The Hottest Sectors During The Covid Crisis

Courtesy of Chris Kimble

Tech has been the place to be during the Covid-19 crisis. Investors Business Daily recently highlighted how one can own the strongest of the strong by just owning one ETF (See article here).

This chart looks at the Dorsey Wright Focus Five index ETF (FV), which reflects that it is attempting a bullish breakout while creating higher lows over the past 6-years.

The $2.1 billion fund tracks the Dorsey Wright Focus Five Index, which provides access to five First Trust sector and industry ETFs. Dorsey Wright & Associates selects the funds based on relative price momentum, then weights the compone...



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Digital Currencies

Twitter Says "Human Error" And "Spear-Phishing Attack" Responsible For Massive Bitcoin Hack

Courtesy of ZeroHedge

Twitter suffered from a major hack about two weeks ago and has now said that its staff was tricked by "spear-phishing", which is a targeted attack to trick people into simply handing out their passwords. 

Twitter staff were targeted through their phones, according to a new report from the BBC. The attacks then allowed hackers the ability to Tweet from celebrity Twitter accounts. Twitter has said it was "taking a hard look" at how it could improve its permissions and processes.

"The attack on July 15, 2020, targeted a small number of employees through a phone spear phishing attack. This attack relied on ...



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Lee's Free Thinking

Texas, Florida, Arizona, Georgia - The Branch COVIDIANS Are Still Burning Down the House

 

Texas, Florida, Arizona, Georgia – The Branch COVIDIANS Are Still Burning Down the House

Courtesy of Lee Adler, WallStreetExaminer 

The numbers of new cases in some of the hardest hit COVID19 states have started to plateau, or even decline, over the past few days. A few pundits have noted it and concluded that it was a hopeful sign. 

Is it real or is something else going on? Like a restriction in the numbers of tests, or simply the inability to test enough, or are some people simply giving up on getting tested? Because as we all know from our dear leader, the less testing, the less...



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Members' Corner

Coronavirus, 'Plandemic' and the seven traits of conspiratorial thinking

 

Coronavirus, 'Plandemic' and the seven traits of conspiratorial thinking

No matter the details of the plot, conspiracy theories follow common patterns of thought. Ranta Images/iStock/Getty Images Plus

Courtesy of John Cook, George Mason University; Sander van der Linden, University of Cambridge; Stephan Lewandowsky...



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Insider Scoop

Economic Data Scheduled For Friday

Courtesy of Benzinga

  • Data on nonfarm payrolls and unemployment rate for March will be released at 8:30 a.m. ET.
  • US Services Purchasing Managers' Index for March is scheduled for release at 9:45 a.m. ET.
  • The ISM's non-manufacturing index for March will be released at 10:00 a.m. ET.
  • The Baker Hughes North American rig count report for the latest week is scheduled for release at 1:00 p.m. ET.
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Promotions

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Feb. 26, 1pm EST

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Phil will discuss positions, COVID-19, market volatility -- the selloff -- and more! 

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Mapping The Market

How IPOs Are Priced

Via Jean Luc 

Funny but probably true:

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