Posts Tagged ‘Institute for Supply Management’

Non-Manufacturing ISM Still Contracting

Non-Manufacturing ISM Still Contracting

Courtesy of Mish

The Institute for Supply Management August 2009 Non-Manufacturing ISM Report On Business® shows the Non-Manufacturing (Service) sector is still contracting.

"The NMI (Non-Manufacturing Index) registered 48.4 percent in August, 2 percentage points higher than the 46.4 percent registered in July, indicating contraction in the non-manufacturing sector for the 11th consecutive month but at a slower rate. The Non-Manufacturing Business Activity Index increased 5.2 percentage points to 51.3 percent. This is the first time this index has reflected growth since September 2008. The New Orders Index increased 1.8 percentage points to 49.9 percent, and the Employment Index increased 2 percentage points to 43.5 percent. The Prices Index increased 21.8 percentage points to 63.1 percent in August, indicating a substantial increase in prices paid from July."

Non-Manufacturing Survey Results

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Even though things are contracting at a slower pace, 12 non-manufacturing industries are still contracting while only 6 are expanding. From the report:

The six industries reporting growth in August based on the NMI composite index — listed in order — are: Real Estate, Rental & Leasing; Health Care & Social Assistance; Transportation & Warehousing; Utilities; Accommodation & Food Services; and Information. The 12 industries reporting contraction in August — listed in order — are: Management of Companies & Support Services; Mining; Finance & Insurance; Arts, Entertainment & Recreation; Professional, Scientific & Technical Services; Construction; Other Services; Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing & Hunting; Wholesale Trade; Educational Services; Public Administration; and Retail Trade.

The most striking thing in the report is the price index soaring from 41.3 to 63.1. Bloomberg discusses the report in U.S. Service Industries Contracted at Slower Pace.

The Institute for Supply Management’s index of non- manufacturing businesses, which make up almost 90 percent of the economy, rose to 48.4, exceeding forecasts and the highest level in 11 months, from 46.4 in July, according to the Tempe, Arizona-based group. Readings below 50 signal contraction.

A measure of new export orders rose to 54 from 47.5, while the index of prices paid rose to 63.1, the highest in 11 months, from 41.3. The gain in prices was the biggest 1-month jump since records began in 1997, due to higher energy costs.

Federal Reserve efforts to unlock credit and government measures such as the “cash-for-clunkers” incentive program are reviving


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This Time its Different*

Courtesy of John Mauldin writing at Thoughts From the Frontline

This Time its Different*

I have often written that the four most dangerous words in the investment world are “This Time It’s Different.” If memory serves me, I have written several e-letters disparaging various personages who have uttered those very words, and gone one to confirm later that it wasn’t different. It almost never is. And yet – and yet! – I am going to make the case over the next few weeks that it really is different this time, with only a lonely asterisk as a caveat. What prompts my probable foolishness to tempt the investing gods is the rather large amount of bad analysis based on unreasonable (dare I say lazy or surface?) readings of statistics that is coming from the mainstream investment media and investment types with their built-in bias for bullish analysis. Normally, gentle reader, your humble analyst is a paragon of moderate sensibilities, but I have been pushed over a mental edge and need to restore balance. I anticipate that this topic will take several weeks, as trying to cover it all in one sitting would exhaust us both. It should be fun. But first…

Peter Bernstein, R.I.P.

Sadly, Peter Bernstein passed away at 90 years young on June 5. One of the great honors and privileges of my life has been getting to know Peter and his lovely wife, Barbara. Introduced at a small dinner five years ago, I have been privileged to share many dinners and meetings with him in the years since, soaking up his wisdom. Only a month ago, he made a presentation (by satellite) to Rob Arnott’s annual conference and was at the top of his intellectual game. His writing of late has been some of his best. Peter cofounded the Journal of Portfolio Management and truly was the dean of investment analysts.

He wrote 10 books (five after the age of 75!). I am often asked what books I would recommend for insight into the economic world. At the very top of my list has always been Against the Gods: the Remarkable Story of Risk. If you have not read it, then get it and put it on top of your summer list. Capital Ideas is also brilliant. The Power of Gold is a must-read. You can get all…
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Fighting historic wildfires amid bad ideas and no funding

 

Fighting historic wildfires amid bad ideas and no funding

A firefighter runs while trying to save a home near Lakeport, Calif. on July 31, 2018. AP Photo/Noah Berger, File

Courtesy of Edward Struzik, Queen's University, Ontario

Shortly after my book “Firestorm, How Wildfire Will Shape Our Future” was published in late 2017, I received a flurry of invitations to speak about the challenges of dealing with fires that are burning bigger, hotter, more often — and in increasingly unpredictable ways.

The invitations came from all over, from Los Angeles to Whiteh...



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Zero Hedge

Hedge Funds Piled Into Facebook Just Before The Crash: Full Q2 13-F Summary

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

It wasn't just David Einhorn who picked just the wrong time to dump most of his Apple stock: in the second quarter, some of the most iconic hedge funds like Duquesne’s Stanley Druckenmiller, Moore Capital Coatue Management and Jana Partners either bought or added to stakes in Facebook in the second quarter... just days before the company's biggest crash in history.

Other weres luckier, and the rich(est) got richer, as Warren Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway boosted its stake in...



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Kimble Charting Solutions

Junk Bond 12-month divergence matter this time?

Courtesy of Chris Kimble.

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Above compares the Pimco High Yield Fund (PHDAX) to the S&P 500 over the past 20-years.

Junk bonds diverged from the S&P 500 for nearly 24-months, prior to stocks peaking in 2000.

Junk bonds diverged from the S&P 500 for nearly 7-months, prior to stocks peaking in 2007.

Junk bonds have been diverging from the S&P 500 for the past 12-months. Will it be different this time?

At this time “It Doesn’t Matter Until It M...



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Insider Scoop

Morgan Stanley Incrementally Bullish On Salesforce, Says MuleSoft Deal Underappreciated

Courtesy of Benzinga.

Related CRM 10 Biggest Price Target Changes For Tuesday Insider Buys Of The Week: AT&T, GE, Salesforce ...

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Chart School

Bitcoin Update - 6000 is support

Courtesy of Read the Ticker.

Demand shows it hand at support levels, well it obvious that $6000 BTCUSD is support so far.

More from RTT Tv , Ref: Brazil bitcoin currency , Brazil New Accounts
 


 

Main Chart in video



 

Sure fundamentals...



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ValueWalk

Hedge Funds Spending Close To $1M A Year On Alternative Data, But Show Me The Alpha

By Mark Melin. Originally published at ValueWalk.

It should come as no surprise to ValueWalk readers that alternative data has an obsolescence value that is negatively correlated to adoption rates. While we have noted data value dropping as usage and knowledge rise, a known concept in the hedge fund industry. What has been unknown until now is the levels to which fund managers must go to ensure the value of their alternative data does not get lost to the dulling mainstream consensus.

...

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Biotech

Here's what we know about CRISPR safety - and reports of 'genome vandalism'

Reminder: Pharmboy is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

Here's what we know about CRISPR safety – and reports of 'genome vandalism'

A standee of the movie ‘Rampage’ at a theater in Bangkok, Thailand. Scientists in the film used CRISPR to create a monster. By Sarunyu L/shutterstock.com

Courtesy of Jianhua Luo, University of Pittsburgh

A movie just recently released called “Rampage” features Dwayne “The Rock” Jo...



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Digital Currencies

What is a blockchain token?

 

What is a blockchain token?

What’s this digital token good for, anyway? knipsdesign/Shutterstock.com

Courtesy of Stephen McKeon, University of Oregon

People are just becoming acquainted with the idea of digital money in the form of cryptocurrencies like bitcoin, where transactions are recorded on a secure distributed database called a blockchain. And now along comes a new concept: the blockchain-based token, which I’ve been following as a blockchain researcher a...



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Members' Corner

There Are 3 Main Theories That Explain Trump's Approach to Putin and Russia-Which One Makes the Most Sense?

What do you think?

Thom Hartmann suggests that the "Manchurian Candidate theory" is the least likely explanation for Trump's pro-Russia behavior in "There Are 3 Main Theories That Explain Trump’s Approach to Putin and Russia—Which One Makes the Most Sense?" (below).  disagrees and suggests that Putin probably has "the goods" on Trump in "Trump’s Plot Against America". (To be fair, Hartmann acknowledges that his three theories are not mutually exclusive.) Jonathan Chait argues ...



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Mapping The Market

Mistakes were Made. (And, Yes, by Me.)

Via Jean-Luc:

Famed investor reflecting on his mistakes:

Mistakes were Made. (And, Yes, by Me.)

One that stands out for me:

Instead of focusing on how value factors in general did in identifying attractive stocks, I rushed to proclaim price-to-sales the winner. That was, until it wasn’t. I guess there’s a reason for the proclamation “The king is dead, long live the king” when a monarchy changes hands. As we continued to update the book, price-to-sales was no longer the “best” single value factor, replaced by others, depending upon the time frames examined. I had also become a lot more sophisticated in my analysis—thanks to criticism of my earlier work—and realized that everything, including factors, moves in and out of favor, depending upon the market environment. I also realized...



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OpTrader

Swing trading portfolio - week of September 11th, 2017

Reminder: OpTrader is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

This post is for all our live virtual trade ideas and daily comments. Please click on "comments" below to follow our live discussion. All of our current  trades are listed in the spreadsheet below, with entry price (1/2 in and All in), and exit prices (1/3 out, 2/3 out, and All out).

We also indicate our stop, which is most of the time the "5 day moving average". All trades, unless indicated, are front-month ATM options. 

Please feel free to participate in the discussion and ask any questions you might have about this virtual portfolio, by clicking on the "comments" link right below.

To learn more about the swing trading virtual portfolio (strategy, performance, FAQ, etc.), please click here ...



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Promotions

Free eBook - "My Top Strategies for 2017"

 

 

Here's a free ebook for you to check out! 

Phil has a chapter in a newly-released eBook that we think you’ll enjoy.

In My Top Strategies for 2017, Phil's chapter is Secret Santa’s Inflation Hedges for 2017.

This chapter isn’t about risk or leverage. Phil present a few smart, practical ideas you can use as a hedge against inflation as well as hedging strategies designed to assist you in staying ahead of the markets.

Some other great content in this free eBook includes:

 

·       How 2017 Will Affect Oil, the US Dollar and the European Union

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All About Trends

Mid-Day Update

Reminder: Harlan is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

Click here for the full report.




To learn more, sign up for David's free newsletter and receive the free report from All About Trends - "How To Outperform 90% Of Wall Street With Just $500 A Week." Tell David PSW sent you. - Ilene...

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About Phil:

Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

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