Posts Tagged ‘International Monetary Fund’

Is Europe Coming Apart Faster Than Anticipated?

Is Europe Coming Apart Faster Than Anticipated?

Courtesy of Gonzalo Lira

The sky is black with PIIGS coming home to roost: I was going to write my customary long and boring think piece—but the simmering crisis in the Eurozone just got the heat turned up: Things are boiling over there!

“Euro Dead” by Ryca.

So let’s take a break from our regularly scheduled programming, and give you a run-down of this late-breaking news:

The bond markets have no faith in Ireland—Greece has been shown up as having liedagain about its atrocious fiscal situation—and now Portugal is teetering—

—in other words, the PIIGS are screwed. I would venture to guess that we are about to see this slow-boiling European crisis bubble over into a full blown meltdown over the next few days—and it’s going to get messy.

So to keep everything straight, let’s recap:

The spreads on Irish sovereign debt widened, and the Germans are pressing them to accept a bailout—despite the fact that the Irish government is fully funded until the middle of 2011. But it’s not the Irish fiscal situation that the bond markets or the Germans are worried about—it’s the Irish banking sector that is freaking everyone out.

After all, the Irish government fully—and very foolishly—backed the insolvent Irish banks back in 2008. And for unexplained reasons, the Irish government is committed to honoring Irish bank bonds fully—which the country simply cannot afford. However, German banks are heavily exposed to Irish banks, which explains why Berlin is so eager to have Ireland accept a bailout.

Right now, European Union, International Monetary Fund and European Central Bank officials are meeting with Irish representatives, putting together a bail-out package. The reason the Irish are so leery, of course, is that any bail-out would be accompanied by very severe austerity measures: In other words, the Irish people would suffer the consequences of shoring up the Irish banks—which is the same as saying the Irish people would suffer austerity measures in order to keep German banks from suffering losses. Also, the EU/IMF/ECB bail-out would probably also cost the Irish their precious 12.5% corporate tax rate—a key magnet for bringing capital to the Emerald Isle.

Add to the Irish worry, Greece is once again wearing a bright red conical dunce cap: They’ve been shown up to have lied again about their fiscal situation. Three guesses what they lied about: If you guessed Greek deficit, you win—yesterday, the Greek government officially revised…
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The Road to World War III – The Global Banking Cartel Has One Card Left to Play

The Road to World War III – The Global Banking Cartel Has One Card Left to Play

By David DeGraw (h/t ZH)

The following is Part I to David DeGraw’s new book, “The Road Through 2012: Revolution or World War III.” This is the second installment to a new seven-part series that we will be posting throughout the next few weeks. You can read the introduction to the book here. To be notified via email of new postings from this series, subscribe here.

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Editor’s Note: The following is Part I to David DeGraw’s new book, “The Road Through 2012: Revolution or World War III.” This is the second installment to a new seven-part series that we will be posting throughout the next few weeks. You can read the introduction to the book here. To be notified via email of new postings from this series, subscribe here.

I: Economic Imperial Operations

The Road to World War III - The Global Banking Cartel Has One Card Left to PlayWhen we analyze our current crisis, focusing on the past few years of economic activity blinds us to the history and context that are vital to understanding the root cause. What we have been experiencing is not the result of an unforeseen economic crash that appeared out of the blue with the collapse of the housing market. It was certainly not brought on by people who bought homes they couldn’t afford. To frame this crisis around a debate on economic theory misses the point entirely. To even blame it on greedy bankers,…
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Tim Backshall On Europe: “Default Now Or Default Later” As EuroStat Complains That Greece Is Still Withholding Critical Data

Tim Backshall On Europe: "Default Now Or Default Later" As EuroStat Complains That Greece Is Still Withholding Critical Data

Courtesy of Tyler Durden

There is one major problem with putting houses of card back together – they tend to fall…over and over. And while abundant liquidity in May and June served as an artificial prop to return European core and PIIGS spreads to previous levels merely as mean reversion algos took holds, the second time around won’t be as lucky. CDR’s Tim Backshall was on the Strategy Session today, discussing the key trends in sovereign products over the past few months, noting the declining liquidity in both sovereign cash and derivative exposure (we will refresh on the DTCC sovereign data later after its weekly Tuesday update). Yet the most interesting observation by Backshall is the declining halflife of risk-on episodes, which much like the SNB’s (now declining) interventions, are having less of an impact on the market, as ever worsening fundamentals can only be swept under the carpet for so long before they really start stinking up the place, and indeed, as Tim points out at 5:30 into the interview, even the IMF now realizes that soon the eventual second domino will fall, and it is better the be prepared (via the previously discussed infinitely expanded credit line), than to have to scramble in the last minute as was necessary in May. In other words, the storm clouds are gathering and only fools will invest in risk asset without getting some additional clarity on what is happening in Europe. The bottom line as Backshall asks is: "do they default now or default later." And that pretty much sums it up. Buy stocks at your own peril.

Incidentally all this is happening as we read in an exclusive Bloomberg piece that "four months after the 110 billion- euro ($140 billion) bailout for Greece, the nation still hasn’t disclosed the full details of secret financial transactions it used to conceal debt" and that EuroStat still has not received the required disclosure about just how fake (or real) the Greek debt situation truly is. When one steps back and ponders just how bad (and unknown) the situation in Europe is, and that stocks are unchanged for the year, one must conclude, as Dylan Grice does every week, that the lunatics have truly taken over the asylum.


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The ECB Blasts Governmental Fear-Based Racketeering, Questions Keynesianism, Believes The Fed’s Powers Are Overestimated

The ECB Blasts Governmental Fear-Based Racketeering, Questions Keynesianism, Believes The Fed’s Powers Are Overestimated

Courtesy of Tyler Durden at Zero Hedge

Altagamma Congress - 2009 Scenarios

In what could one day be seen by historians as a seminal speech presented before the Paul Volcker-chaired Group of Thirty’s 63rd Plenary Session in Rabat, the ECB’s Lorenzo Bini Smaghi had two messages: a prosaic, and very much expected one: of unity and cohesion, if at least in perception if not in deed, as well as an extremely unexpected one, in which the first notable discords at the very peak of the power echelons, are finally starting to leak into the public domain. It is in the latter part that Bini Smaghi takes on a very aggressive stance against not only the so-called "inflation tax", or the purported ability of central bankers to inflate their way out of any problem, but also slams the recently prevalent phenomenon of fear-mongering by the banking and political elite, which has become the goto strategy over the past two years whenever the banking class has needed to pass a policy over popular discontent. The ECB member takes a direct stab at the Fed’s perceived monetary policy inflexibility and US fiscal imprudence, and implicitly observes that while the market is focusing on Europe due to its monetary policy quandary, it should be far more obsessed with the US. Bini Smaghi also fires a warning shot that ongoing divergence between the ECB and Germany will not be tolerated. Most notably, a member of a central bank makes it very clear that he is no longer a devout believer in that fundamental, and false, central banking religion – Keynesianism.

First, a quick read through the "prosaic" sections of Bini Smaghi’s letter.

Bini Smaghi, who is a member of the executive board of the ECB, has a primary obligation to defend the ECB’s public image in this time of weakness and complete lack of credibility. And so he does. When discussing the ECB’s response to the Greek fiasco and contagion, he is steadfast that the response, although delayed and volatile, was the right one. Furthermore, he claims that the hard path Europe has set on is the right one, as it will ultimately right all the fiscal wrongs, even without the benefit of individual monetary intervention. Ultimately, the ECB is convinced that not letting Greece fail, either in the…
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Will The EU’s Collapse Push The World Deeper Into The Great Depression II?

Will The EU’s Collapse Push The World Deeper Into The Great Depression II?

Courtesy of Timothy D. Naegele[1]

First World War

“For want of a nail . . .  the kingdom was lost.”[2] Will Greece’s debt crisis lead to a Greek debt default and the collapse of the euro and an ensuing collapse of the 27-member European Union (or EU), and trigger the next round of crashes that will be described by economic historians decades from now as “the Great Depression II”?[3] The assassination of Archduke Franz Ferdinand of Austria and his wife in Sarajevo, Serbia brought the tensions between Austria-Hungary and Serbia to a head.  In turn, it is said this triggered a chain of international events that embroiled Russia and the major European powers; and World War I broke out in Europe.[4] Will Greece’s debt crisis set a series of events in motion that sends the world into a downward economic spiral of unfathomable proportions?

For years, I have wrestled with the question of whether the Europe would collapse economically, politically, socially and militarily.  Sounds absurd, you say?  The countries are too interwoven and mutually dependent now for that to happen, and at the very least they will muddle along, making the worst of the best situations, and achieving the lowest common denominator?  The United States of Europe, they are not and never will be, but they have achieved a degree of cohesiveness that I never thought was likely years ago.

I believed jealousies and rivalries and, yes, the hatreds of the past would linger barely beneath the surface, coming unglued at the most inopportune times when it really mattered the most.  When the chips were down, I felt the EU would splinter and fall apart; and that its participants and the world would write it off as a noble experiment that failed, much like the League of Nations.  After all, its successor—the United Nations—is considered to be a colossal joke by Americans, many of whom would love to see it shipped to Europe, and its building on the East River in Manhattan bulldozed and turned into a park, or made into co-ops or condominiums.

The bitter hatreds of the past seem to have subsided in Europe though, and it has become a cultural melting pot, more and more.  Airbus was the first tangible sign of economic integration that I never thought would…
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IMF Debt Pusher Calls Eurozone Bailout What It Is: Dope

More Eurozone Bailout analogies,… this one from Marek Belka, the IMF’s chief representative for Europe. – Ilene

IMF Debt Pusher Calls Eurozone Bailout What It Is: Dope

Courtesy of Jr. Deputy Accountant 

I’m so glad someone involved in this mess has finally gotten real about what it is.

Reuters:

The $1 trillion global emergency package for the euro zone is "morphine" that has the potential to calm markets but should not be seen as a long-term solution, the IMF’s head for Europe said on Monday.

"What has happened last night gives a little bit of relief for the Europeans. It has potential for calming down markets," Belka, who took part in the ministers’ meeting, told a World Economic Forum conference in Brussels.

"Don’t treat it as a long-term solution. It is a kind of morphine that stabilises the patient. Real treatment has yet to come."


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THE IMF CATAPULTS FROM SHUNNED AGENCY TO GLOBAL CENTRAL BANK

THE IMF CATAPULTS FROM SHUNNED AGENCY TO GLOBAL CENTRAL BANK

“A year ago,” said law professor Ross Buckley on Australia’s ABC News last week, “nobody wanted to know the International Monetary Fund. Now it’s the organiser for the international stimulus package which has been sold as a stimulus package for poor countries.”

The IMF may have catapulted to a more exalted status than that. According to Jim Rickards, director of market intelligence for scientific consulting firm Omnis, the unannounced purpose of last week’s G20 Summit in Pittsburgh was that “the IMF is being anointed as the global central bank.” In a CNBC interview on September 25, Rickards said, “They’ve issued debt for the first time in history. They’re issuing SDRs. The last SDRs came out around 1980 or ’81, $30 billion. Now they’re issuing $300 billion. When I say issuing, it’s printing money; there’s nothing behind these SDRs.”

G20SDRs, or Special Drawing Rights, are a synthetic currency originally created by the IMF to replace gold and silver in large international transactions. But they have been little used until now. Why does the world suddenly need a new global fiat currency and global central bank? Rickards says it because of “Triffin’s Dilemma,” a problem first noted by economist Robert Triffin in the 1960s. When the world went off the gold standard, a reserve currency had to be provided by some large-currency country to service global trade. But leaving its currency out there for international purposes meant that the country would have to continually run large deficits, and that meant it would eventually go broke. The U.S. has fueled the world economy for the last 50 years, but now it is going broke. The U.S. can settle its debts and get its own house in order, but that would cause world trade to contract. A substitute global reserve currency is needed to fuel the global economy while the U.S. solves its debt problems, and that new currency is to be the IMF’s SDRs. 

That’s the solution to Triffin’s dilemma, says Rickards, but it leaves the U.S. in a vulnerable position. If we face a war or other global catastrophe, we no longer have the privilege of printing money. The dollar becomes just another currency. To avoid…
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Zero Hedge

The Fed And The Treasury Have Now Merged

Courtesy of ZeroHedge View original post here.

Submitted by Jim Bianco of Bianco Research

As I've argued, the Fed and the Treasury merged. Powell said this was the case today (from his Q&A):

These programs we are using, under the laws, we do these, as I mentioned in my remarks, with the consent of the Treasury Secretary and the fiscal backing from the congress through the Treasury. And we are doing it to provide credit to households, businesses, state and local governments. As we are directed by the Congress. We are using that fiscal backstop to absorb any losses we have.

Our ability is limited by the law. We have to find u...



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Phil's Favorites

The PhilStockWorld.com Weekly Webinar - 04-08-2020

For LIVE access on Wednesday afternoons, join us at Phil's Stock World – click here.

 

Major Topics:

00:01:34 - Checking on the Markets
00:04:32 - Current News
00:31:34 - LEVI
00:35:08 - AMZN
00:39:26 - Mark Mahaney's Stock Coverage
00:43:00 - Public Transportation & Disinfecting
00:48:08 - Petroleum Status Report & OPEC
01:00:24 - COVID-19 Update | WYNN
01:16:00 - Portfolio Projection: Income Portfolio
01:17:23 - FUTURES
01:18:49 - Earnings Portfolio
01:19:27 - STP | LTP
01:22:52 - S&P 500
01:30:05 - AAPL
01:34:15 - VIX
01:36:00 - M
01:42:56 - VIAC
01:47:02 - XOM
01:50:29 - LB
01:52:44 - IRBT
01:57:48 - Crude Oil WTI
02...



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Biotech/COVID-19

COVID-19 is hitting black and poor communities the hardest, underscoring fault lines in access and care for those on margins

 

COVID-19 is hitting black and poor communities the hardest, underscoring fault lines in access and care for those on margins

Nurse Shelia Rickman participates in an after-shift demonstration on Monday, April 6, 2020, in Chicago’s Hyde Park neighborhood, after media reports of disproportionate numbers of black people dying from COVID-19 in the city. AP Photo/Charles Rex Arbogast

Grace A. Noppert, University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill

As the COVID-19 epidemic continues to ravage the American public, an unsurprisin...



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ValueWalk

Coronavirus symptoms, causes, prevention and cure

By Jacob Wolinsky. Originally published at ValueWalk.

The best case situation for Coronavirus or COVID-19 is that in a few weeks it dies down and things get back to normal. However, we must entertain the possibility of a far more frightening scenario.

COVID-19 models continue to change for the better

April 9, 2020 Update: More than 1.5 million people around the world have been infected by the novel coronavirus, and nearly 90,000 have died. In the U.S., the death toll surpassed 14,000 on Wednesday. Tuesday alone saw a record 1,858 deaths. So far, approximately 425,000 people in the U.S. have tested positive for COVID-19.

Although researchers say the peak hasn’t been reached yet, the model in use by the White House and many other agencies was updated on Wednesday. The number of projected deaths from the virus in the U.S. declined to 60,415 by August, compared...



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Kimble Charting Solutions

Silver/Gold Indicator Creates Largest Bullish Pattern In Decades!

Courtesy of Chris Kimble

Is an important metals indicator sending one of the largest bullish messages in nearly 50-years? Very Possible!

This chart looks at the Silver/Gold ratio on a monthly basis since the mid-1970s. Historically metals bulls want to see the ratio heading up, to send the metals complex a solid bullish message.

The ratio hit the top of the falling channel (A) back in 2011, where it created a large bearish reversal pattern. Since creating the bearish pattern at resistance, the ratio has experienced a significant decline.

9 years after hitting the top of the channel the ratio hit the bottom of the channel at (1) last month, where it looks to have created one of the largest monthly b...



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The Technical Traders

Adaptive Fibonacci Suggests Much Lower Prices Yet To Come - Part I

Courtesy of Technical Traders

Our Adaptive Fibonacci Price Modeling system suggests a much deeper price move is in the works and the current price rally will likely end near resistance levels identified by the Adaptive Fibonacci Price Modeling system.  We are posting this research post for friends and followers to help them understand the true structure of price and to allow them to prepare for what we believe will become a much deeper downside price move in the future.

Fibonacci Price Theory teaches us that price moves in waves within up and down price cycles. The recent peak in price, near February 25, 2020, has resulted in a very deep -36% price collapse in the S&P 500 (ES) recently. This dow...



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Chart School

The Big Short movie guides us to what is next for the stock market

Courtesy of Read the Ticker

There is nothing new in WallStreet, it is only the players that change. Sometimes a market player or an event gets ahead of the crowd and WallStreet has to play catch up.

Previous Post Dow 2020 Crash Watch Dow, Three strikes and your out!

It is important to understand major WallStreet players do not want to miss out on a money making moves.  







...

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Insider Scoop

Economic Data Scheduled For Friday

Courtesy of Benzinga

  • Data on nonfarm payrolls and unemployment rate for March will be released at 8:30 a.m. ET.
  • US Services Purchasing Managers' Index for March is scheduled for release at 9:45 a.m. ET.
  • The ISM's non-manufacturing index for March will be released at 10:00 a.m. ET.
  • The Baker Hughes North American rig count report for the latest week is scheduled for release at 1:00 p.m. ET.
...

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Members' Corner

10 ways to spot online misinformation

 

10 ways to spot online misinformation

When you share information online, do it responsibly. Sitthiphong/Getty Images

Courtesy of H. Colleen Sinclair, Mississippi State University

Propagandists are already working to sow disinformation and social discord in the run-up to the November elections.

Many of their efforts have focused on social media, where people’s limited attention spans push them to ...



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Digital Currencies

While coronavirus rages, bitcoin has made a leap towards the mainstream

 

While coronavirus rages, bitcoin has made a leap towards the mainstream

Get used to it. Anastasiia Bakai

Courtesy of Iwa Salami, University of East London

Anyone holding bitcoin would have watched the market with alarm in recent weeks. The virtual currency, whose price other cryptocurrencies like ethereum and litecoin largely follow, plummeted from more than US$10,000 (£8,206) in mid-February to briefly below US$4,000 on March 13. Despite recovering to the mid-US$6,000s at the time of writin...



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Phil will discuss positions, COVID-19, market volatility -- the selloff -- and more! 

This week, we also have a special presentation from Mike Anton of TradeExchange.com. It's a new service that we're excited to be a part of! 

Mike will show off the TradeExchange's new platform which you can try for free.  

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Lee's Free Thinking

Why Blaming the Repo Market is Like Blaming the Australian Bush Fires

 

Why Blaming the Repo Market is Like Blaming the Australian Bush Fires

Courtesy of  

The repo market problem isn’t the problem. It’s a sideshow, a diversion, and a joke. It’s a symptom of the problem.

Today, I got a note from Liquidity Trader subscriber David, a professional investor, and it got me to thinking. Here’s what David wrote:

Lee,

The ‘experts’ I hear from keep saying that once 300B more in reserves have ...



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Mapping The Market

How IPOs Are Priced

Via Jean Luc 

Funny but probably true:

...

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About Phil:

Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

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