Posts Tagged ‘James Hamilton’

About that recovery you ordered

About that recovery you ordered

Courtesy of James D. Hamilton at Econbrowser 

"We have met the enemy and he is us," Pogo used to say. Well, we’ve also now met the recovery, and he is ugly.

The Bureau of Economic Analysis reported today that U.S. real GDP grew at an annual rate of 2.4% during the second quarter. The latest GDP numbers bring our Econbrowser Recession Indicator Index for 2010:Q1 down to 5.4%. This index is based on a very simple pattern-recognition algorithm for characterizing economic recessions. It is not a prediction of where the economy is headed, but rather a backward-looking assessment of where the economy stood as of the first quarter, using today’s 2010:Q2 data release to help inform that assessment.

University of Oregon Professor Jeremy Piger maintains a related index which has been at or below 1% for each month so far of 2010, while the most recent value calculated by U.C. Riverside Professor Marcelle Chauvet‘s algorithm is 7.8%. All three approaches agree that the economy remains in a growth phase that began in the third quarter of last year. A subsequent economic downturn would be described as the beginning of a new recession rather than a continuation of the previous recession.

 GDP-led Recession

*The plotted value for each date is based solely on information as it would have been publicly available and reported as of one quarter after the indicated date, with 2010:Q1 the last date shown on the graph. Shaded regions (with the exception of 2007:Q4-2009:Q2) represent dates of NBER recessions, which were not used in any way in constructing the index, and which were sometimes not reported until two years after the date. The most recent recession is shown on the graph as ending in 2009:Q2 as implied by the index; as of this writing the NBER has not yet assigned an end date for this recession.

But a pretty recovery it’s not. The economy has grown by 3.2% in real terms over the last year, about the average annual historical growth rate since World War II. But since recessions are characterized by below-average growth, expansions should typically exhibit above-average growth, and particularly in the first year of an expansion we often see very strong growth as a result of the positive contribution…
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Zero Hedge

Futures Slide After Trump Opens A "Most Unwelcome Can Of Worms" With TikTok, WeChat Executive Order

Courtesy of ZeroHedge View original post here.

World stocks ended a four day rally overnight that pushed the MSCI World index to green for the year, after U.S. President Trump cranked up simmering tensions with China after late on Thursday has signed orders to ban Americans from transactions involving China’s ByteDance (TikTok’s parent) and WeChat (owned by Tencent), taking effect in 45 days. Furthermore, Trump’s Working Group on Financial Markets recommended that Chinese companies currently listed on US exchanges should be delisted if they do not become compliant w...



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Phil's Favorites

Post-COVID, there'll be less of a reason to cut company tax than before

 

Post-COVID, there'll be less of a reason to cut company tax than before

Andrey Bayda/Shutterstock

Courtesy of Janine Dixon, Victoria University and Jason Nassios, Victoria University

They’re at it again, pushing lower company tax as a way to resuscitate the economy.

The arguments were well ventilated at the time the government pushed for ...



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The Technical Traders

Everything You Need to Know About Silver... and More

Courtesy of Technical Traders

Listen to Chris talk with Jim about Silver on Silver Radio. Chris and Jim explore the effect on Silver prices if a Black Swan event occurs, potential bullion shortage. They also talk about silver shorts and the ‘natural’ price of silver but-for market manipulation. We still think Silver will be the Super Hero of metals! Listen up as all of your questions about silver are answered here.

...

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ValueWalk

Looking to buy a business? Here's everything you must consider

By Michelle Jones. Originally published at ValueWalk.

Are you looking to buy a business? Or did you lose a job and have found that the prospects of getting another similar one are not that positive. You may also be thinking about buying a business as an investment, which can be lucrative.

Q2 2020 hedge fund letters, conferences and more

Whatever your reason for looking to buy a business, there are many things to keep in mind. Simply coming up with the idea to buy a business is the easy part. Now you must figure out where to look for businesses to buy...



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Kimble Charting Solutions

Silver Headed Back To $50, Top Of The Cup & Handle Pattern?

Courtesy of Chris Kimble

Could Silver be creating a multi-decade bullish “Cup & Handle” pattern? Possible!

Did a retest of a handle breakout take place in March at (1), where Silver created one of the largest bullish reversals in decades? Possible!

Could Silver be creating a 40-year bullish pattern? Anything is possible! I humbly have to say share this; I’ve been in the business for 40-years and I haven’t seen anything like this.

Silver looks to have double topped back in 2011 at $50, which was the 1980 highs. After double topping, Silver ...



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Biotech/COVID-19

What the huge COVID-19 testing undercount in the US means

 

What the huge COVID-19 testing undercount in the US means

Health care workers use a nasal swab to test a person for COVID-19 in Pembroke Park, Florida. Joe Raedle / Getty Images News

Courtesy of Melissa Hawkins, American University

Researchers from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention and other institutions recently published a study which estimated that the true number of people infected by COVID-19 could be six to 24 times high...



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Chart School

RTT browsing latest..

Courtesy of Read the Ticker

Please review a collection of WWW browsing results. The information here is delayed by a few months, members get the most recent content.



Date Found: Sunday, 29 March 2020, 07:00:37 PM

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Comment: Silver Shorts Are In a Bind | Ted Butler youtu.be/qQc0AoJp-Q8



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Comment: 5 Questions From You for Luke Gromen youtu.be/nVZD_fuxbQE


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Digital Currencies

Twitter Says "Human Error" And "Spear-Phishing Attack" Responsible For Massive Bitcoin Hack

Courtesy of ZeroHedge

Twitter suffered from a major hack about two weeks ago and has now said that its staff was tricked by "spear-phishing", which is a targeted attack to trick people into simply handing out their passwords. 

Twitter staff were targeted through their phones, according to a new report from the BBC. The attacks then allowed hackers the ability to Tweet from celebrity Twitter accounts. Twitter has said it was "taking a hard look" at how it could improve its permissions and processes.

"The attack on July 15, 2020, targeted a small number of employees through a phone spear phishing attack. This attack relied on ...



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Lee's Free Thinking

Texas, Florida, Arizona, Georgia - The Branch COVIDIANS Are Still Burning Down the House

 

Texas, Florida, Arizona, Georgia – The Branch COVIDIANS Are Still Burning Down the House

Courtesy of Lee Adler, WallStreetExaminer 

The numbers of new cases in some of the hardest hit COVID19 states have started to plateau, or even decline, over the past few days. A few pundits have noted it and concluded that it was a hopeful sign. 

Is it real or is something else going on? Like a restriction in the numbers of tests, or simply the inability to test enough, or are some people simply giving up on getting tested? Because as we all know from our dear leader, the less testing, the less...



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Members' Corner

Coronavirus, 'Plandemic' and the seven traits of conspiratorial thinking

 

Coronavirus, 'Plandemic' and the seven traits of conspiratorial thinking

No matter the details of the plot, conspiracy theories follow common patterns of thought. Ranta Images/iStock/Getty Images Plus

Courtesy of John Cook, George Mason University; Sander van der Linden, University of Cambridge; Stephan Lewandowsky...



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Insider Scoop

Economic Data Scheduled For Friday

Courtesy of Benzinga

  • Data on nonfarm payrolls and unemployment rate for March will be released at 8:30 a.m. ET.
  • US Services Purchasing Managers' Index for March is scheduled for release at 9:45 a.m. ET.
  • The ISM's non-manufacturing index for March will be released at 10:00 a.m. ET.
  • The Baker Hughes North American rig count report for the latest week is scheduled for release at 1:00 p.m. ET.
...

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Promotions

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Phil will discuss positions, COVID-19, market volatility -- the selloff -- and more! 

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Mike will show off the TradeExchange's new platform which you can try for free.  

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Mapping The Market

How IPOs Are Priced

Via Jean Luc 

Funny but probably true:

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Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

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