Posts Tagged ‘Japan’s Lost Decades’

Is Debt-Deflation Just Beginning?

Is Debt-Deflation Just Beginning?

deflationCourtesy of Mish 

Last Thursday I received an email from David Meier, Associate Advisor at the MotleyFool concerning Debt-Deflation.

David asked if I had any comments on his article Debt-deflation: Just the beginning? Here is a partial listing:

The debate rages on.

Is inflation or deflation the bigger threat? There are lots of people — lots of smart people — on both sides of the debate and they present lots of good arguments. One thing that I have not seen — and maybe I just missed it — was an analysis using Irving Fisher’s debt-deflation framework. So I decided to put one together myself and to inject my understanding of what Bernanke is try to do to stop deflation from taking hold.

The question I keep coming back to, especially as I read more about the situation Japan faced (I’m reading everything I can by Richard Koo, including his book "The Holy Grail of Macroeconomics."

And just to make sure I am not being one-sided, I am countering my fears of deflation with "Monetary Regimes and Inflation" by Peter Bernholz, which should arrive next week.

Without further ado, below is my research on debt-deflation.

Dave

Dave’s research is a 70 Slideshow Page On Debt-Deflation that is easy enough to read or download from Scribd.

Here is my response ….

You should not be afraid of deflation.

You should be afraid of policies attempting to fight it.

Deflation (rather price deflation) is actually the natural state of affairs. As productivity increases, more goods and services are produced relative to the population and prices would therefore be expected to drop.

It is the Fed, along with misguided Keynesian and Monetarist economists who think falling prices are a bad thing. Who amongst us does like falling prices (except of course on things we own like houses, but even then who is not sick of higher property taxes that result)?

The reality is inflation benefits those with first access to money. Guess who that is? The answer is easy: banks, government, and the already wealthy. Inflation is actually a tax on the middle class and the poor who get access to money last. During the housing bubble, by the time the poor could get access to to money easily, it was far too late to buy.

Given that inflation


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Kimble Charting Solutions

Banks Should Send Critical Message To Stocks This Week!

Courtesy of Chris Kimble

Bank earnings could go a long way to impacting the broad market in a big way this week. Wells Fargo, Goldman Sachs, Bank Of America, JP Morgan, Morgan Stanley all announce earning the next couple of days.

As these earning announcements are to take place, the Bank Index (BKX) finds itself facing a key breakout test.

The index remains inside of bullish rising channel (1), as it has created a series of higher lows and higher highs over the past 8-years.

The index has little to brag about over the past 20-months, as it has created a series of lower highs and lower lows inside of falling chan...



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Insider Scoop

22 Healthcare Stocks Moving In Tuesday's Pre-Market Session

Courtesy of Benzinga

Gainers
  • Reata Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (NASDAQ: RETA) stock surged 45.2% to $146.07 during Tuesday's pre-market session. The market value of their outstanding shares is at $2.8 billion. The most recent rating by Cantor Fitzgerald, on October 15, is at Overweight, with a price target of $180.00.
  • Aphria, Inc. (NYSE: APHA) stock increased by 18.6% to $5.16. The market value of their outstanding shares is at $1.8 billion. According to the most recent rating by CIBC, on July 26, the current rating is at Underperformer.
  • ...


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Zero Hedge

African Swine Fever Devastates China's Pig Herd In September 

Courtesy of ZeroHedge View original post here.

In August, we reported that at least half of China's breeding pigs have died from African swine fever or been slaughtered to contain the spreading of the disease. 

New figures published Monday from the Ministry of Agriculture of the People's Republic of China showed the pig-apocalypse...



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Phil's Favorites

Maxime Bernier either doesn't know or doesn't care that immigrants have a positive impact on the economy

 

Maxime Bernier either doesn't know or doesn't care that immigrants have a positive impact on the economy

The platform of the People’s Party of Canada gets a lot of things factually wrong about the economic impact of immigration. THE CANADIAN PRESS/Justin Tang

Courtesy of Arvind Magesan, University of Calgary

The anti-immigration rhetoric heard on stage at the national leaders’ debates may have surprised many Canadians. Calls from the political fringes for major immigration reform to preserve or restore some imagined character of the state has been a trend in other western industrialized democracies like France, the Netherlands and the United States, but up till...



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The Technical Traders

Market Trends Continue to Hold True

Courtesy of Technical Traders

CLICK HERE TO GET REAL TIME TRADE ALERTS!

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Chart School

US Economic Review 2019Q4

Courtesy of Read the Ticker

An investor must form an opinion of the wider economic risk, here is a small sample of readtheticker.com US economy review.


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Example of the first chart in the video.


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Fundamentals are important, and so is market timing, here at readtheticker.com we believe a combination of ...

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Digital Currencies

Zuck Delays Libra Launch Date Due To Issues "Sensitive To Society"

Courtesy of ZeroHedge View original post here.

Authored by William Suberg via CoinTelegraph.com,

Facebook is taking a much more careful approach to Libra than its previous projects, CEO Mark Zuckerberg has confirmed. 

“Obviously we want to move forward at some point soon [and] not have this take many years to roll out,” he said. “But ...



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Lee's Free Thinking

Look Out Bears! Fed New QE Now Up to $165 Billion

Courtesy of Lee Adler

I have been warning for months that the Fed would need new QE to counter the impact of massive waves of Treasury supply. I thought that that would come later, rather than sooner. Sorry folks, wrong about that. The NY Fed announced another round of new TOMO (Temporary Open Market Operations) today.

In addition to the $75 billion in overnight repos that the Fed issued and has been rolling over since Tuesday, next week the Fed will issue another $90 billion. They’ll come in the form of three $30 billion, 14 day repos to be offered next week.

That brings the new Fed QE to a total of $165 billion. Even in the worst days of the financial crisis, I can’t remember the Fed ballooning its balance sheet by $165 bi...



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Biotech

The Big Pharma Takeover of Medical Cannabis

Reminder: We are available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

The Big Pharma Takeover of Medical Cannabis

Courtesy of  , Visual Capitalist

The Big Pharma Takeover of Medical Cannabis

As evidence of cannabis’ many benefits mounts, so does the interest from the global pharmaceutical industry, known as Big Pharma. The entrance of such behemoths will radically transform the cannabis industry—once heavily stigmatized, it is now a potentially game-changing source of growth for countless co...



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Mapping The Market

How IPOs Are Priced

Via Jean Luc 

Funny but probably true:

...

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Members' Corner

Despacito - How to Make Money the Old-Fashioned Way - SLOWLY!

Are you ready to retire?  

For most people, the purpose of investing is to build up enough wealth to allow you to retire.  In general, that's usually enough money to reliably generate a year's worth of your average income, each year into your retirement so that that, plus you Social Security, should be enough to pay your bills without having to draw down on your principle.

Unfortunately, as the last decade has shown us, we can't count on bonds to pay us more than 3% and the average return from the stock market over the past 20 years has been erratic - to say the least - with 4 negative years (2000, 2001, 2002 and 2008) and 14 positives, though mostly in the 10% range on the positives.  A string of losses like we had from 2000-02 could easily wipe out a decades worth of gains.

Still, the stock market has been better over the last 10 (7%) an...



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Promotions

Free eBook - "My Top Strategies for 2017"

 

 

Here's a free ebook for you to check out! 

Phil has a chapter in a newly-released eBook that we think you’ll enjoy.

In My Top Strategies for 2017, Phil's chapter is Secret Santa’s Inflation Hedges for 2017.

This chapter isn’t about risk or leverage. Phil present a few smart, practical ideas you can use as a hedge against inflation as well as hedging strategies designed to assist you in staying ahead of the markets.

Some other great content in this free eBook includes:

 

·       How 2017 Will Affect Oil, the US Dollar and the European Union

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