Posts Tagged ‘JOE’

DARK HORSE HEDGE – Any way the wind blows, doesn’t really matter

Housing-keeping note: Thanks to WordPress’s destruction of Phil’s Favorites site (and replacement with an invite to sign up for its service!), I’ve been relocating my blog to TypePad.  Benefits: it looks better, is very user friendly and offers an easy way to search archives for any topic. One unique feature is that while exploring the internet, I can simply click on a button to post an excerpt of an interesting article with a link to the full article. That ability allows me to post links to articles that are worth reading when I do not have reprinting permission, such as articles from major news sources. 

The new Favorites site is here.  I’ve also created a website for Dark Horse Hedge, here.  - Ilene 

DARK HORSE HEDGE – Any Way the Wind Blows, Doesn’t Really Matter

By Scott Brown at Sabrient & Ilene at Phil’s Stock World

Is this the real life? 
Is this just fantasy? 
Caught in a landslide 
No escape from reality 
Open your eyes 
Look up to the skies and see 
I’m just a poor boy (Poor boy) 
I need no sympathy 
Because I’m easy come, easy go 
Little high, little low 
Any way the wind blows 
Doesn’t really matter to me, to me

Queen, Bohemian Rhapsody

 *****

Ilene and I started the Dark Horse Hedge on July 1, 2010 with the goal of helping self-directed investors weather any storm, no matter which way the wind was blowing.  Today completes the second month of publishing the Dark Horse Hedge and we thought it would be a good time to review.  

 

September 1976:  British rock group Queen at Les Ambassadeurs, where they were presented with silver, gold and platinum discs for sales in excess of one million of their hit single 'Bohemian Rhapsody'. The band are, from left to right, John Deacon, Freddie Mercury (Frederick Bulsara, 1946 - 1991), Roger Taylor and Brian May.  (Photo by Keystone/Getty Images)

The
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DARK HORSE HEDGE

DARK HORSE HEDGE Weekend Catch-Up 

By Scott at Sabrient and Ilene at Phil’s Stock World

Hedging into the week of August 2nd, the Dark Horse Hedge (DHH) is in a BALANCED tilt (long to short ratio) with 8 LONG and 8 SHORT positions. We used Phil’s BUY/WRITE strategy to enter two of our LONG positions (IM and GCI) at a 10-20% discount to the market.  As you can see from the chart, the SPX wandered between the 50 and 200 day moving averages (MAs) all week before whimpering towards the bottom of the channel Thursday and Friday. The 12-26-9 MACD which is the faster of the 2 technical direction signals we follow has flat-lined at just above +6 and the slower RSI 14-day still remains just below 50.

Without some impressive economic reports coming this week or much better than expected earnings reports, we believe the market will drift down towards and test the 50 day MA. If a bullish tone sets back in, it is doubtful that it could easily push through the 200 day MA.  Resistance points as well as the 50 and 200 day MAs all which fit into a fairly narrow trading channel.

[chart from FreeStockCharts.com]

We are happy with the positions we put on in DHH’s first 30 days of existence and we look forward to capturing more profit as the companies report earnings this week.  We will continue to take profits "after the news" and rotate into newer, fresher positions while keeping an eye on the overall market to adjust our tilt for maximum Alpha*, which is why we all write and read DHH. 

Summary of DHH positions in the virtual portfolio

LONG: XRTX, WDC, GCI, IM, DLX, GME, FRZ, and TEO  

SHORT: AIV, STI, HUSA, USG, CLDA, TEX, RAIL, and JOE 
 
Read previous DHH actions and follow our latest portfolio moves here. > 
 
*We are aiming to be hedged in our market exposure by being long stocks with the greatest potential to rise and short stocks with the greatest potential to decline.  To identify these winner and loser stocks, we use Sabrient’s Value Change Up (VCU) assessment system. Sabrient’s VCU system is a multi-factor quantitative ranking system that scores over 2,000 stocks and allows us to enter LONG positions in the best ranking stocks and SHORT positions in worst ranking


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DARK HORSE HEDGE UPDATE

DARK HORSE HEDGE UPDATE 

By Scott at Sabrient and Ilene of PSW

Black and white tilted view of horse grazing in meadow with wooden fence in foreground

You can run, you can run, tell my friend-boy, Willie Brown.
You can run, tell my friend-boy, Willie Brown.
Lord, that I’m standin’ at the crossroad, babe, I believe I’m sinking down.

Crossroads, Robert Johnson

Heading into Friday July 23, 2010 the market is again at a technical crossroad with the SPX closing Thursday at 1093.7, above the 50-day Moving Average of 1085.5. The MACD 12-26-9 remains close but still under the (zero) signal line at -1.13, with the RSI 14-day at 45.26.  There is lateral resistance at the 1096 level from the close last Thursday showing how the market has traveled a long way the past week to get nowhere.

Amazon.com Inc. (AMZN) fell short of analysts’ forecasts after Thursday’s close and was down 14% in after-hours trading, suggesting that the market may follow the pattern it has been in most of the summer.

Up 200, down 200, up 200, down 200 - wash out your savings, rinse and repeat!  What a total sham of a market we have these days with machines running us up and down on virtually no news at all.  Yesterday they would have you believe that Ben Bernanke caused a sell-off. How ridiculous is that?  He didn’t say one thing that he didn’t already say in the Fed Minutes that were released on the 14th, which were the notes from the meeting of June 23rd so for analysts to get on TV and say “the markets were concerned by the Chairman’s comments” is beyond stupid – it’s criminal negligence.  Phil’s Thrill-Ride Thursday.


[chart from freestockchart.com]

Thursday’s economic releases were less than encouraging with a jump in the number of people seeking unemployment benefits. Sales of previously owned homes fell, but the market shrugged it off as seasonal and rallied on the earnings of Caterpillar Inc., UPS Inc., and others that beat estimates. However, the…
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DARK HORSE HEDGE UPDATE

DARK HORSE HEDGE UPDATE 

Black and white tilted view of horse grazing in meadow with wooden fence in foreground

By Scott at Sabrient and Ilene of PSW

You can run, you can run, tell my friend-boy, Willie Brown.
You can run, tell my friend-boy, Willie Brown.
Lord, that I’m standin’ at the crossroad, babe,
I believe I’m sinking down.

- Crossroads, Robert Johnson

Heading into Friday July 23, 2010 the market is again at a technical crossroad with the SPX closing Thursday at 1093.7, above the 50-day Moving Average of 1085.5. The MACD 12-26-9 remains close but still under the (zero) signal line at -1.13, with the RSI 14-day at 45.26.  There is lateral resistance at the 1096 level from the close last Thursday showing how the market has traveled a long way the past week to get nowhere.

Amazon.com Inc. (AMZN) fell short of analysts’ forecasts after Thursday’s close and was down 14% in after-hours trading, suggesting that the market may follow the pattern it has been in most of the summer.

Up 200, down 200, up 200, down 200 - wash out your savings, rinse and repeat!  What a total sham of a market we have these days with machines running us up and down on virtually no news at all.  Yesterday they would have you believe that Ben Bernanke caused a sell-off. How ridiculous is that?  He didn’t say one thing that he didn’t already say in the Fed Minutes that were released on the 14th, which were the notes from the meeting of June 23rd so for analysts to get on TV and say “the markets were concerned by the Chairman’s comments” is beyond stupid – it’s criminal negligence.  Phil’s Thrill-Ride Thursday.


[chart from freestockchart.com]

Thursday’s economic releases were less than encouraging with a jump in the number of people seeking unemployment benefits. Sales of previously owned homes fell, but the market shrugged it off as seasonal and rallied on the earnings of Caterpillar Inc., UPS Inc., and others that beat estimates. However, the SPX hasn’t been able to break through resistance at 1096 and essentially has gone nowhere since last Thursday.…
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DARK HORSE HEDGE

DARK HORSE HEDGE 7-18-10

By Scott at Sabrient and Ilene of PSW

Friday gave us a real-time example of why we use Hysteresis* and confirmations from our technical signals, MACD 12-26-9 and RSI 14-day, to select and monitor the tilt (long-short ratio) of the Dark Horse Hedge’s portfolio.  

The SHORT tilt Friday allowed us to make +1.37% from our 6 SHORT, 3 LONG positions while the S&P 500 gave back -2.88%.  The economic data out Friday of course played a large roll in the failure of our indicators to turn from short to BALANCED.  A sharp decline in the University of Michigan Consumer Index to 65 in July compared poorly with a June figure of 76 and Briefing.com’s estimate of 74.5.  Google’s earnings miss didn’t help either as the S&P 500 fell through its short-term support area to close at 1064.88.  The MACD reading is currently at -3.56 and RSI 14-day at 42.85 (bullish signal is above 50).  The preponderance of evidence heading into the July 19 week is that the market needs to find support in the 1040 range.  

Despite the poor economic data that pushed the market lower on Friday, 19 of 23 S&P 500 companies reporting thus far reported better than projected EPS, and 15 of them beat revenues as well.

Earnings reports will continue to flow in this week.  In our portfolio Western Digital Corp (WDC, long position) reports profits on Tuesday while USG Corp (USG, short position) and Sun Trust Banks Inc (STI, short position) report their losses on July 22.  We will continue to monitor the market action and look for guidance on entering new positions. Key support areas appear to be 1040, 1022 and then 995.

Dark Horse Hedge maintains 10% cash for swing trade opportunities and we are highlighting one for entry on Monday at the Open.

SHORT Terex Corp. (TEX) at the Open Monday.  

TEX will report its latest loss figures on Tuesday, July 21. Twenty analysts project losses ranging from -$.15 to -$.44 with an average of -$.30.  Looking back over the last four quarterly announcements, we see analysts often underestimate Terex’s losses.  For example, in March 2010, analysts estimated -$.52 while the actual loss was $.64. In December 2009, analysts targeted -$.49 and TEX delivered -$.89.  In September 2009, the loss was projected to be $.34 and the company came in at -$.77.  In June 2009, investors were…
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The Dark Horse Hedge

The Dark Horse Hedge

By Scott Brown at Sabrient, and Ilene, at Phil’s Stock World

Silhouette of Horses Jumping a Steeplchase

Scott Brown, Managing Director – Retail Division at Sabrient, is launching a newsletter with Phil’s Stock World based on the highly successful and popular Investors’ (H)Edge product.  The Dark Horse Hedge newsletter is a Long/Short retail portfolio taking advantage of technical market trends to tilt the balance of LONG vs. SHORT in bearish, bullish or range bound markets for added Alpha (the measure of return on a risk adjusted basis).  Long and short equity positions taken in The Dark Horse Hedge portfolio will be chosen using to Sabrient’s rating system, which is primarily based on fundamental criteria. Because the stock positions will generally be held for intermediate to long periods, these positions are ideal for using with option strategies taught by Phil Davis, of Phil’s Stock World.

The Dark Horse Hedge (DHH) newsletter will follow a number of guidelines in an attempt to minimize systemic risk, or “Beta.” Beta is a measure of the volatility of a portfolio in comparison to the market as a whole.  To keep beta low, the DHH portfolio will have both long and short positions.  Consequently, dramatic moves in the market will always be in the direction of at least part of the portfolio.

Using Sabrient’s rating system, we will focus on being long high quality stocks, and short low quality stocks.  Long positions should fare better than average during market selloffs.  In contrast, the short positions, selected from the lowest ranking stocks, should perform well during selloffs. These stocks are also expected to underperform higher quality names in a stronger market.  This strategy is designed to balance the goal of attaining Alpha with the desire to keep Beta relatively low.

We will follow this list of guidelines in building the DHH portfolio.

1.  When fully invested, the Portfolio will have 24 positions.  However the portfolio may not be fully invested.

2.  Tilting (or weighing) of the portfolio will be based on the position of the SPX relative to its 50 and 200 day Moving Averages

  • If the SPX is below both its 50


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Zero Hedge

Labor Leaders Furious After World Bank Recommends Ditching Minimum Wage

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Bernie Sanders is preparing to release his version of the "jobs guarantee" that has become a fixture of the UK Labour Party's platform under leader Jeremy Corbyn.

And although his office admits it hasn't carried out a cost analysis for its visionary plan, Sanders says his goal is to guarantee a job (paying $15 an hour) in construction, health-care, education and a handful of other fields, to every American who wants one.

But while the socialist fervor unleashed by Sanders's 2016 primary run shows little sign of abating, a draft report released by the World Bank sh...



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Phil's Favorites

Self-driving cars and humans face inevitable collisions

 

Self-driving cars and humans face inevitable collisions

Self-driving cars and human-driven vehicles are bound to collide as the technology improves. Tempe Police Department via AP

Courtesy of Peter Hancock, University of Central Florida

In 1938, when there were just about one-tenth the number of cars on U.S. roadways as there are today, a brilliant psychologist and a pragmatic engineer joined forces...



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Insider Scoop

Earnings Scheduled For April 25, 2018

Courtesy of Benzinga.

Companies Reporting Before The Bell
  • Thermo Fisher Scientific Inc. (NYSE: TMO) is projected to report quarterly earnings at $2.4 per share on revenue of $5.63 billion.
  • Ford Motor Company (NYSE: F) is expected to report quarterly earnings at $0.41 per share on revenue of $37.16 billion.
  • Twitter, Inc. ...


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Digital Currencies

Hackers Steal $150K After Infiltrating Popular Ethereum Wallet

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Authored by Marie Huillet via CoinTelegraph

Update: Data from EtherScan shows that over $150k worth of ETH has been stolen in the DNS hack. Starting from 07:17 this morning, 179 inbound transactions totaling 216.06 ETH were sent to ETH address 0x1d50588C0aa11959A5c28831ce3DC5F1D3120d29. At 10:15, the attacker sent 215 ETH to 0x68ca...



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Chart School

The Power of Simple Moving Averages - Crude Oil Warning, Part 3

Courtesy of Read the Ticker.

Many see the large commercial short position with Crude Oil, but what does it mean.

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Sure fundamentals do matter, and so does market timing (entry, stops and exit), here at readtheticker.com we believe a combination of Gann Angles, ...

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Biotech

Why marijuana fans should not see approval for epilepsy drug as a win for weed

Reminder: Pharmboy and Ilene are available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

Why marijuana fans should not see approval for epilepsy drug as a win for weed

Small vials of CBD, which some believe could be a cure for many ailments. Roxana Gonzalez/Shutterstock.com

Courtesy of Timothy Welty, Drake University

A Food and Drug Administration panel recommended approval of a drug made of cannabidiol on Ap...



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ValueWalk

Buffett At His Best

By csinvesting. Originally published at ValueWalk.

Bear with me as I share a bit of my history that helped me create SkyVu and the Battle Bears games. The University of Nebraska gave me my first job after college. I mostly pushed TV carts around, edited videos for professors or the occasional speaker event. One day, Warren Buffet came to campus to speak to the College of Business. I didn’t think much of this speech at the time but I saved it for some reason. 15 years later, as a founder of my own company, I watch and listen to this particular speech every year to remind myself of the fundamentals and values Mr. Buffett looks for. He’s addressing business students at his alma mater, so I think his style here is a bit more ‘close to home’ than in his other speeches. Hopefully many of you find great value in this video like I have. Sorry for the VHS...



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Kimble Charting Solutions

The Stock Bull Market Stops Here!

 

The Stock Bull Market Stops Here!

Courtesy of Kimble Charting

 

The definition of a bull market or bull trends widely vary. One of the more common criteria for bull markets is determined by the asset being above or below its 200 day moving average.

In my humble opinion, each index above remains in a bull trend, as triple support (200-day moving averages, 2-year rising support lines, and February lows) are still in play ...



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Members' Corner

Cambridge Analytica and the 2016 Election: What you need to know (updated)

 

"If you want to fundamentally reshape society, you first have to break it." ~ Christopher Wylie

[Interview: Cambridge Analytica whistleblower: 'We spent $1m harvesting millions of Facebook profiles' – video]

"You’ve probably heard by now that Cambridge Analytica, which is backed by the borderline-psychotic Mercer family and was formerly chaired by Steve Bannon, had a decisive role in manipulating voters on a one-by-one basis – using their own personal data to push them toward voting ...



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Mapping The Market

The tricks propagandists use to beat science

Via Jean-Luc

How propagandist beat science – they did it for the tobacco industry and now it's in favor of the energy companies:

The tricks propagandists use to beat science

The original tobacco strategy involved several lines of attack. One of these was to fund research that supported the industry and then publish only the results that fit the required narrative. “For instance, in 1954 the TIRC distributed a pamphlet entitled ‘A Scientific Perspective on the Cigarette Controversy’ to nearly 200,000 doctors, journalists, and policy-makers, in which they emphasized favorable research and questioned results supporting the contrary view,” say Weatherall and co, who call this approach biased production.

A second approach promoted independent research that happened to support ...



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OpTrader

Swing trading portfolio - week of September 11th, 2017

Reminder: OpTrader is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

This post is for all our live virtual trade ideas and daily comments. Please click on "comments" below to follow our live discussion. All of our current  trades are listed in the spreadsheet below, with entry price (1/2 in and All in), and exit prices (1/3 out, 2/3 out, and All out).

We also indicate our stop, which is most of the time the "5 day moving average". All trades, unless indicated, are front-month ATM options. 

Please feel free to participate in the discussion and ask any questions you might have about this virtual portfolio, by clicking on the "comments" link right below.

To learn more about the swing trading virtual portfolio (strategy, performance, FAQ, etc.), please click here ...



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Promotions

NewsWare: Watch Today's Webinar!

 

We have a great guest at today's webinar!

Bill Olsen from NewsWare will be giving us a fun and lively demonstration of the advantages that real-time news provides. NewsWare is a market intelligence tool for news. In today's data driven markets, it is truly beneficial to have a tool that delivers access to the professional sources where you can obtain the facts in real time.

Join our webinar, free, it's open to all. 

Just click here at 1 pm est and join in!

[For more information on NewsWare, click here. For a list of prices: NewsWar...



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All About Trends

Mid-Day Update

Reminder: Harlan is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

Click here for the full report.




To learn more, sign up for David's free newsletter and receive the free report from All About Trends - "How To Outperform 90% Of Wall Street With Just $500 A Week." Tell David PSW sent you. - Ilene...

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About Phil:

Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

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About Ilene:

Ilene is editor and affiliate program coordinator for PSW. She manages the site market shadows, archives, more. Contact Ilene to learn about our affiliate and content sharing programs.

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