Posts Tagged ‘Keynes’

Which Way Wednesday – Japan’s GDP Plunges 6.8%

MORE FREE MONEY!!!  

That's all this chart says to traders this morning, who are taking the European Markets up over half a point this morning and are goosing our Futures by half a point as well as bad news is good news and TERRIBLE news is even better in this Central Bank-sponsored market.

Private Consumption in Japan fell 5% in April, May and June and wages dropped 1.8% while sales taxes rose 3% and – PRESTO – there's your 5% decline in Private Consumption.  

Obviously, giving the workers more money is out of the question in a Conservative Capitalist Economy like Japan and we're certainly not going to tax Corporations when we can raise sales taxes that disproportionately target the poor instead so the only solution is:  MORE FREE MONEY!!!

Japan has increased their monetary base by 50% since last year and this year they are on track to add another 25% to pump it up to 270,000,000,000,000 Yen.  In March of 2000, there were just 50Tn Yen in circulation so a 5x increase in the money supply and NONE of it ended up in the hands of the bottom 80% who, just like in America, saw their standard of living DECREASE over the past decade and a half.  

It's a great race to the bottom in annual GDP growth overall as essentially all of the economic gains in Japan and the US accrue to the top 10% (people and corporations) while the bottom 90% circle the drain on the "Road to Serfdom" that Hayek warned us about 70 years ago:

“It is one of the saddest spectacles of our time to see a great democratic movement support a policy which must lead to the destruction of democracy and which meanwhile can benefit only a minority of the masses who support it. Yet it is this support of the tendencies toward monopoly which make them so irresistible and the prospects of the future so dark.

"If we face a monopolist we are at his absolute mercy. And an authority directing the


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Wildlife Wednesday – The Portu-Goose!

 

"Portugal will not request financial aid for the simple reason that it's not necessary" – Socrates

Of course, that was Jose Socrates, Portugal's Prime Minister, not Σωκρτης the great Philospoher, who was more famous for saying "False words are not only evil in themselves, but they infect the soul with evil" as well as "True knowledge exists in knowing that you know nothing."  More apropos for this morning is the more famous Scocrates' more famous observation that "True wisdom comes to each of us when we realize how little we understand about life, ourselves, and the world around us." 

The investors jacking up the markets at 6am this morning understand very little about the relevance of Portugal's sale of $1.62Bn in bonds.  While the auction was a "success" with longer bonds going off at 6.7% that's WITH intervention by China and Japan on an auction amount that either one of them could have tipped the cab driver on the ride over from the airport and not missed it.  This is like going to your rich uncle for a used car loan because the bank wants 12% and your uncle says "sure I will help you out but you will owe me big time and I will make my brother's life miserable because I have to give his kid money and I'll never let him forget it" and then he hands you a contract to pay him back at 11.5%.  

Actually, Portugal didn't even get that much of a "family discount,"  The last bond auction of 2010 went off at 6.8% and the fear was that the rates would go over 7% but let's not do cartwheels over 6.7%.  Oh, sorry, too late, the markets are already doing cartwheels with a 0.5% gain in the futures and just look how excited the Hang Seng was after lunch, gaining 200 points in a virtual straight line and almost doubling the day's optimistic opening.  The Shanghai was just as exciting, falling from 2,828 down almost 1.5% to 2,788 but then flying back to 2,821 to book a 0.6% gain on the day and giving Mainland China's Main Market this exciting profile:

So it's no surprise Uncle China doesn't want Portugal falling apart but…
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Weekend Reading – Reviewing the Reviews

 I am still trying to get more bullish

I was thinking about writing something cute like I resolve to get more bullish but that would be wrong.  I try, in my own humble way, to "get" the market right.  That means I am not bullish or bearish but Truthish (to further botch Stephen Colbert's use of the word) and, as Buddah says: "There are only two mistakes one can make along the road to truth; not going all the way, and not starting."  Confucious reminds us that there are three methods by which we may learn wisdom:  "First, by reflection, which is noblest; Second, by imitation, which is easiest; and third by experience, which is the bitterest."

In that spirit, we will spend the day in reflection so that we are better able to start on that long road to the truth so that we will be better able to imitate the things that will work in the year to come while trying to avoid making mistakes that will give us bitter experiences.  

This post is not about me – We had a fantastic year and I've already given some outlook for 2011 back on the 19th in that weekend's "It's Never too Early to Predict the Future" and our current position is short-term bearish in the Jan-April time-frame, looking for a pullback to at least 1,200 on the S&P and possibly back to 1,150.  

After that, we are expecting a return to steady gains but without the irrational exuberance we're currently experiencing.  So no, I am not bearish – I simply think we've gotten ahead of ourselves.  Since we don't know where the rally train will stop, we have our "Breakout Defense – 5,000% in 5 Trades or Less" from Dec 11th, which were a set of very bullish, highly levered plays where a little bet can pay off a lot if we simply hold our long-established breakout levels.   

How much is "a lot"?  Well my GE trade idea, for example, was to sell the 2013 $12.50 puts for $1.10 (net $1.15 in ordinary margin according to TOS) and to use that money to buy the 2012 $17.50/20 bull call spread for .95, which was a net .15 credit on a $2.50 spread
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What is the Role of the State?

What is the Role of the State?

Courtesy of Mark Thoma at Economist’s View

When I teach the History of Economic Thought, one thing we focus on is how views on the role of the state have changed over time. It has a natural cycle to it, with eras such as the highly interventionist Mercantilist years followed by Physiocratic and Classical views stressing minimal government intervention. This is followed by a rebound in the other direction, and so it goes with a Keynes followed by a Friedman in the 50s, a rebound back to Keynes in the 60s, to classical ideas following the experience of the 70s, and so on, and so on. We are involved in the same debate, and a smaller version of the grand historical lurches in each direction, yet again today:

What is the role of the state?, by Martin Wolf: It is … a good time to ask … the biggest question in political economy: what is the role of the state? This question has concerned western thinkers at least since Plato (5th-4th century BCE). It has also concerned thinkers in other cultural traditions… The perspective here is that of the contemporary democratic west.

The core purpose of the state is protection. This view would be shared by everybody, except anarchists… Contemporary Somalia shows the horrors that can befall a stateless society. Yet horrors can also befall a society with an over-mighty state. …

Mancur Olson argued that the state was a “stationary bandit”. A stationary bandit is better than a “roving bandit”, because the latter has no interest in developing the economy, while the former does. But it may not be much better, because those who control the state will seek to extract the surplus over subsistence generated by those under their control.

In the contemporary west, there are three protections against undue exploitation by the stationary bandit: exit, voice … and restraint. By “exit”, I mean the possibility of escaping from the control of a given jurisdiction, by emigration, capital flight or some form of market exchange. By “voice”, I mean a degree of control over, the state, most obviously by voting. By “restraint”, I mean independent courts, division of powers, federalism and entrenched rights.

This, then, is a brief background to … the problem, which is defining what a democratic state … is entitled to


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A Keynesian Theory of Mind

This is an interesting article but yet I have to disagree with at least part of the premise--that impairment of the "theory of mind" is very specific/sensitive measure for Autism. I also have serious doubts about Asperger’s being on a continuum with Classical Autism — I think these two conditions are quite distinct.  I haven’t reviewed the literature in a long time, so please let me know if you know studies disproving my admittedly subjective opinion. – Ilene 

A Keynesian Theory of Mind

Courtesy of Tim at The Psy-Fi Blog

The Mental Cell of Autism

Autism is one the crueller tricks that nature plays on human beings, leaving sufferers isolated, incapable of making social connections and effectively trapped within their own heads. Although the causes aren’t fully understood some of the consequences are, and chief among these is the inability of sufferers to take on the perspective of others. This failure to develop a so-called theory of mind means they simply can’t understand the needs and motivations of other people.

According to John Maynard Keynes a proper theory of mind is just what an investor needs to keep one step ahead of the crowd, although others feel that Keynes’ approach to investing is tantamount to chasing returns all the way to poverty. It raises the question, though, as to how much a person’s genetic makeup determines the type of investor they are. Are effective value investors really just socially inept wallflowers or simply extremely focused individuals?

A Theory of Mind

It’s become clear that autism isn’t a straightforward condition. Although extreme autism is utterly disabling and sufferers can’t live a normal life or even look after themselves there is a spectrum along which we’re all spread out. Improved diagnosis methods have shown that many people have mild forms of the problem, usually referenced as Asperger’s syndrome. Such people prefer to be solitary and are generally fairly rubbish socially. [I would say "different," without hints of negativity. - Ilene]

To explain this the concept of “theory of mind” has been developed by Simon Baron-Cohen who describes it as:

“… being able to infer the full range of mental states (beliefs, desires, intentions, imaginations, emotions, etc) that cause action. In brief, having a theory of mind is to be able to reflect on the contents of one’s own and other’s minds”.

In short, it’s the ability to…
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Thrilling Thursday – Can We Be Saved?

Let’s review first, how we got into this mess

Not only is a bust cycle the inevitable result of a Capitalistic boom but the way we keep shoveling crises under the rug (to avoid pain and the ensuing political fallout) only exacerbates the problem once the rug becomes too small to mask the problem.  Then things begin unraveling at the fringes and then – horror of horrors – someone actually lifts up the rug and says: "OH MY GOD – IT’S TERRIBLE!"   Well DUH!  Of course it’s terrible.  Hayek (Freidrich, not Selma) told us this would happen 60 years ago and it’s happened dozens of times already and it will happen dozens of times again because it’s the nature of a system where there can be winners and losers – sometimes you win and sometimes you lose

It is no surprise then, that the Europeans are choosing to follow Hayek’s path to austerity, while the Americans cling to the Keynesian delusion that we, if we just buy a bigger rug, we can fit a lot more problems under it and maybe no one will notice until we move out.  David Leonhardt has a great article in The Times presenting the Keynsian side of the eqation.  Paul Krugman points out that the "bond vigilantes" are behind this massive attack on the markets as they work very hard to drive current rates down and keep them there BECAUSE THAT INCREASES THE VALUE OF THE BONDS THEY OWN. 

Come on people, grow up!  First Pimpco and company drove rates sky high telling you the World was going to default and there was a "ring of fire" in Europe and that sent swap rates and note rates flying so these evill jackasses were able to buy tens of Billions in sovereign debt at sky-high interest rates.  Now those same crooks push for a bailout, using other people’s money to insure their high-yield bonds and then they begin a PR campaign to crack the whip on austerity to make sure that making the bondholders whole is every country’s top priority, no matter what the cost to the population. 

How much is at stake here?  Pimpco alone has over $1Tn in bonds that get much, much more valuable if they can engineer a low-rate Japan-style deflationary environment.  I pointed out that this was happening on June 15th, when Mohamed El-Erian teamed up with
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Testy Tuesday – Gentle Ben vs. Reality

Behold the power of prayer! 

We had a wild ride in the futures in the last 16 hours as they were up 1% and now are barely holding flat at 7:30.  Our catalyst was Dr. Ben Bernanke who, as we expected, attempted to boost the markets in a scheduled speech where the Fed chairman said he is hopeful the economy will gain traction and not fall back into a "double dip" recession.  "My best guess is we will have a continued recovery, but it won't feel terrific," Bernanke said.

Bernanke didn't offer new clues about when the Fed would reverse course and start to tighten credit. However, he did say the Fed won't be able to wait until the jobs market is fully healed before it pushed rates up.  Observing the economy, Bernanke said the news so far is "pretty good." Both consumers and companies are spending sufficiently to keep the recovery moving forward. The private sector, he said, is "picking up the baton" as government stimulus, which mainly powered the recovery in its earliest stage, starts to fade.  n relations between the United States and China, Bernanke said there is a real desire between the two superpowers to work together to ease trade and economic tensions. Both countries sort of understand there is a "co-dependency relationship," Bernanke said. The United States snaps up Chinese goods and the Chinese is a major buyer of the U.S. government's debt.

Wow, really Ben?  I guess that's some "good" kind of codependency and not the actual definition of codependency, which is: "A tendency to behave in overly passive or excessively caretaking ways that negatively impact one's relationships and quality of life…  Codependency may also be characterized by denial, low self-esteem, excessive compliance, and/or control patterns."  According to Mental Health America: "Codependency is an emotional and behavioral condition that affects an individual’s ability to have a healthy, mutually satisfying relationship. It is also known as “relationship addiction” because people with codependency often form or maintain relationships that are one-sided, emotionally destructive and/or abusive."  Gee, he's right – we DO have a codependent relationship with China! 

Even more interesting is the way the MHA links codependency to Dysfunctional Family Structures, saying

A dysfunctional family is one in which members suffer from fear, anger, pain, or shame that


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Creator of “Fear the Boom and Bust” at the ASC

Creator of “Fear the Boom and Bust” at the ASC

By Mises.org

H/tip to Tom Burger ("It is entertaining and I can even understand the lyrics. A fascinating and rare example of economic theory meeting up with pop culture. Well … okay … it’s probably the ONLY example…")

The Mises Institute is pleased to welcome John Papola to the Austrian Scholars Conference, March 11-13, 2010, Auburn, Alabama. John is the co-producer along with Russell Roberts of “Fear the Boom and Bust,” the youtube smash hit that pits Hayek against Keynes in a rap song about the business cycle.

The video (now with 785,000 views) has brought more attention to the Austrian theory of the business cycle, and with surprising theoretical accuracy, than any medium in history, and driven sales of Hayek’s book on the business cycle…

Read more here.>>

There is also "The Making of … " here.


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ValueWalk

The Bull Run Is Wreaking Havoc With Cargo Delays In Major Ports

By Jacob Wolinsky. Originally published at ValueWalk.

Ocean Insights’ cargo delay statistics show how the bull run is wreaking havoc on the market, with surging rollover rates across major ports during December and most major carriers seeing increases in delays.

Q3 2020 hedge fund letters, conferences and more

Cargo Delays Has Created A 30% Increase In Demand

Industry analysts are calling it, “one of the strongest bull-markets for container carriers seen in the last few decades.” Triggered by a 30% collapse in demand for container shipments in Europe and the US at the outset of the pandemic, a subsequen...



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Phil's Favorites

How the Ebenezer Baptist Church has been a seat of Black power for generations in Atlanta

 

How the Ebenezer Baptist Church has been a seat of Black power for generations in Atlanta

Dr. Martin Luther King Jr. preaching from his pulpit in 1960 at the Ebenezer Baptist Church in Atlanta, Georgia. Dozier Mobley/Getty Images

Courtesy of Jason Oliver Evans, University of Virginia

The high-stakes U.S. Senate race in Georgia catapulted the historic Ebenezer Baptist Church back into the spotlight. For 135 years, the church played a vital ...



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Politics

What is the 'boogaloo' and who are the rioters who stormed the Capitol? 5 essential reads

 

What is the 'boogaloo' and who are the rioters who stormed the Capitol? 5 essential reads

Rioters mass on the U.S. Capitol steps on Jan. 6. Samuel Corum/Getty Images

Courtesy of Jeff Inglis, The Conversation

In the wake of the insurrection on Jan. 6, the U.S. is bracing for the possibility of additional violent demonstrations and potential riots at the U.S. Capitol and state capitol buildings around the nation. W...



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Zero Hedge

Global Markets, S&P Futures Flat With US Markets Closed For MLK Holiday

Courtesy of ZeroHedge View original post here.

US cash markets may be closed for Monday's MLK holiday, but US equity futures are humming and at last check they were unchanged from Friday's close at 3, 762 after earlier dropping as much as 20 points.

“Markets needed a breather or even a pull back to justify reflationary expectations,” said Ben Emons, managing director of global macro strategy at Medley Global Advisors.

Despite the dip, stocks remains just shy of...



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Chart School

Why did selling SP500 volatility trades blow up?

Courtesy of Read the Ticker

Many have made their fortunes selling volatility premium and then losing it, that is because they are running down the lit fuse and not understanding that eventually the strategy blows up.

In the chart below periods marked with A, B, C, D are periods of chasing yield which was so great the selling of option premium became vogue. Yes, this strategy worked for a while and 'this time was different' worked, until it didn't.

Selling volatility work great during period gray A until the cycle ended at red A.
Selling volatility work great during period gray B until the cycle ended at red B.
Selling volatility work great during period gray C until the cycle ended at blue C.
Selling volatility work great during period gray D un...

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Biotech/COVID-19

The simple reason West Virginia leads the nation in vaccinating nursing home residents

 

The simple reason West Virginia leads the nation in vaccinating nursing home residents

By mid-January, only about a quarter of the COVID-19 vaccines distributed for U.S. nursing homes through the federal program had reached people’s arms. Paul Bersebach/MediaNews Group/Orange County Register via Getty Images

Courtesy of Tinglong Dai, Johns Hopkins University School of Nursing

The urgency of vaccinating nursing home residents is evident in the numbers. The COVID-19 pandemic has claimed the lives of mo...



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Kimble Charting Solutions

Treasury Bond Yields At Make-Or-Break Decision Point Says Joe Friday

Courtesy of Chris Kimble

Treasury bond yields (and interest rates) have been falling for so long now that investors have taken it for granted.

But bond yields have been rising for the past several months and perhaps investors should pay attention, especially as we grapple with questions about inflation and the broader economy (and prospects for recovery).

Today we ask Joe Friday to deliver us the facts! Below is a long-term “monthly” chart of the 30 Year US Treasury Bond Yield.

Counter-Trend Rally In Yields Facing Strong Resistance!

As you can see, treasury bond yields have spent much of the past 25 years trading in a falling channel… but the coronavirus crash sent yields...



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Mapping The Market

The Countries With The Most COVID-19 Cases

 

The Countries With The Most COVID-19 Cases

By Martin Armstrong, Statista, Jan 12, 2021

This regularly updated infographic keeps track of the countries with the most confirmed Covid-19 cases. The United States is still at the top of the list, with a total now exceeding the 22 million mark, according to Johns Hopkins University figures. The total global figure is now over 85 million, while there have been more than 1.9 million deaths.

You will find more infographics at ...



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Digital Currencies

Bitcoin: why the price has exploded - and where it goes from here

 

Bitcoin: why the price has exploded – and where it goes from here

B is for blast-off (but also bubble). 3DJustincase

Courtesy of Andrew Urquhart, University of Reading

Bitcoin achieved a remarkable rise in 2020 in spite of many things that would normally make investors wary, including US-China tensions, Brexit and, of course, an international pandemic. From a year-low on the daily charts of US$4,748 (£3,490) in the middle of March as pandemic fears took hold, bitcoin rose to ju...



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The Technical Traders

Adaptive Fibonacci Price Modeling System Suggests Market Peak May Be Near

Courtesy of Technical Traders

Our Adaptive Fibonacci Price Modeling system is suggesting a moderate price peak may be already setting up in the NASDAQ while the Dow Jones, S&P500, and Transportation Index continue to rally beyond the projected Fibonacci Price Expansion Levels.  This indicates that capital may be shifting away from the already lofty Technology sector and into Basic Materials, Financials, Energy, Consumer Staples, Utilities, as well as other sectors.

This type of a structural market shift indicates a move away from speculation and towards Blue Chip returns. It suggests traders and investors are expecting the US consumer to come back strong (or at least hold up the market at...



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Lee's Free Thinking

Texas, Florida, Arizona, Georgia - The Branch COVIDIANS Are Still Burning Down the House

 

Texas, Florida, Arizona, Georgia – The Branch COVIDIANS Are Still Burning Down the House

Courtesy of Lee Adler, WallStreetExaminer 

The numbers of new cases in some of the hardest hit COVID19 states have started to plateau, or even decline, over the past few days. A few pundits have noted it and concluded that it was a hopeful sign. 

Is it real or is something else going on? Like a restriction in the numbers of tests, or simply the inability to test enough, or are some people simply giving up on getting tested? Because as we all know from our dear leader, the less testing, the less...



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Insider Scoop

Economic Data Scheduled For Friday

Courtesy of Benzinga

  • Data on nonfarm payrolls and unemployment rate for March will be released at 8:30 a.m. ET.
  • US Services Purchasing Managers' Index for March is scheduled for release at 9:45 a.m. ET.
  • The ISM's non-manufacturing index for March will be released at 10:00 a.m. ET.
  • The Baker Hughes North American rig count report for the latest week is scheduled for release at 1:00 p.m. ET.
...

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Phil will discuss positions, COVID-19, market volatility -- the selloff -- and more! 

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About Phil:

Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

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Ilene is editor and affiliate program coordinator for PSW. Contact Ilene to learn about our affiliate and content sharing programs.