Posts Tagged ‘negative thinking’

THE POWER OF NEGATIVE THINKING: 4 SHORT SELLING THEMES

THE POWER OF NEGATIVE THINKING: 4 SHORT SELLING THEMES

Profile of man thinking

Courtesy of The Pragmatic Capitalist 

Jim Chanos recently gave an interesting interview on the power of negative thinking and the benefits of short selling.  Most interesting were the 4 major themes Chanos looks for in his short positions.  Much like a long only macro thinker Chanos develops his specific short positions from much larger macro themes.  In the article he detailed the 4 themes he looks for:

Some recurring themes in shorting selling:

  • Booms that go bust – define boom as anything that is fueled by debt in which the cash flows produced by the asset do not cover the cost of the debt.  The internet is not a boom since they didn’t have debt.  The telecom bubble that went along with it was.
  • Consumer fads – Investors like to extrapolate strong growth well further into the future than they should.  It’s also a great source of decoration for your office, he’s got a Cabbage Patch Kid next to a George Forman Grill next to a Nordic Trak.
  • Technological Obsolescence – Everyone thinks the old product will last longer than it actually does.  Examples were Wang Word Processors (replaced by PCs), Record Stores (replaced by digital downloads).  He says the internet is the cheapest way to distribute anything.  However, people are still renting DVDs by mail, which surprises him (hint: likely short Netflix!).  These businesses always look cheap but the cash flow goes down just as fast as the share price (think Kodak film).
  • Structurally flawed accounting – Beware serial acquirers, they often write down the assets of the acquired firm in the stub period that no one sees.  Ask management what the nets assets of the firm were on their latest end of quarter and what they were when they were acquired. Most management won’t tell you this, some will, however.  But by writing down inventory and A/R they can “spring load” results once the company is acquired.  They’re supposed to adjust the purchase price, but more don’t.

Source: Market Folly 


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Phil's Favorites

4 ways extreme heat hurts the economy

 

4 ways extreme heat hurts the economy

Corn yields can suffer in high heat. AP Photo/Seth Perlman

Courtesy of Derek Lemoine, University of Arizona

Summer 2021 will likely be one of the hottest on record as dozens of cities in the West ...



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Zero Hedge

Moderna, Pfizer Hike Vaccine Prices By Up To 25%

Courtesy of ZeroHedge View original post here.

Pfizer and Moderna have both made clear that they see their COVID vaccination businesses as long-term profit drivers, not the public service that enabled them to receive billions of dollars in public money to effectively subsidize their development. And now that jabs from China and Russia are facing newfound skepticism across Europe and the emerging world, Big Pharma is showing its true colors, and demanding a massive premium from all buyers of its jabs as Pfizer rolls out its first 'booster jabs'.

It's interesting that they're raising prices, considering that ...



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Chart School

Bitcoin Gann review, what happened at $65000, what is next?

Courtesy of Read the Ticker

Bitcoin stopped at $65,000 and sunk 50%, that was not expected, confused.

It's funny how Gann Angles can be the rail road for price action. 





Chart in video.








Changes in the world is the source of all market moves, to catch and ride the change we believe a combination of Gann Angles, ...

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Biotech/COVID-19

Big tech has a vaccine misinformation problem - here's what a social media expert recommends

 

Big tech has a vaccine misinformation problem – here’s what a social media expert recommends

Misinformation on social media is hindering efforts to vaccinate people against the coronavirus. Sheldon Cooper/SOPA Images/LightRocket via Getty Images

Courtesy of Anjana Susarla, Michigan State University

With less than half the United States population fully vaccinated for COVID-19 and as the delta variant sweeps the nation, the U.S. surgeon general issued an advisory that called misinformation ...



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Digital Currencies

What are stablecoins? A blockchain expert explains

 

What are stablecoins? A blockchain expert explains

Stablecoins promise more stability than other cryptocurrencies. DenBoma/iStock via Getty Images

Courtesy of Stephen McKeon, University of Oregon

Stablecoins are a type of cryptocurrency linked to an asset like the U.S. dollar that doesn’t change much in value.

The majority of the dozens of stablecoins that currently exist use the dollar as their benchm...



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Politics

Bipartisan infrastructure deal begins to address consequences of a warming planet: 3 essential reads

 

Bipartisan infrastructure deal begins to address consequences of a warming planet: 3 essential reads

A lot of coastal infrastructure wasn’t designed for the frequent flooding and crashing waves brought by rising seas. Jeffrey Greenberg/Universal Images Group via Getty Images

Courtesy of Bryan Keogh, The Conversation and Stacy Morford, The Conversation

...



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Promotions

Free Webinar Wednesday: July 7, 1:00 pm EST

 

Don't miss Phil's Webinar on July 7 at 1:00 pm EST. It's FREE and open to all who wish to join.

Click here: 

https://attendee.gotowebinar.com/register/6552545459443187211

Join us to learn Phil's trading tactics and strategies in real-time!

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Kimble Charting Solutions

Crude Oil Cleared For Blast Off On This Dual Breakout?

Courtesy of Chris Kimble

Is Crude Oil about to blast off and hit much higher prices? It might be worth being aware of what could be taking place this month in this important commodity!

Crude Oil has created lower highs over the past 13-years, since peaking back in 2008, along line (1).

It created a “Double Top at (2), then it proceeded to decline more than 60% in four months.

The countertrend rally in Crude Oil has it attempting to break above its 13-year falling resistance as well as its double top at (3).

A successful breakout at (3) would suggest Crude Oil is about to mo...



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ValueWalk

Managing Investments As A Charity Or Nonprofit

By Anna Peel. Originally published at ValueWalk.

Maintaining financial viability is a constant challenge for charities and nonprofit organizations.

Q4 2020 hedge fund letters, conferences and more

The past year has underscored that challenge. The pandemic has not just affected investment returns – it’s also had serious implications for charitable activities and the ability to fundraise. For some organizations, it’s even raised doubts about whether they can continue to operate.

Finding ways to generate long-term, sustainable returns for ...



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Mapping The Market

Suez Canal: Critical Waterway Comes to a Halt

 

Suez Canal: Critical Waterway Comes to a Halt

Courtesy of Marcus Lu, Visual Capitalist

The Suez Canal: A Critical Waterway Comes to a Halt

On March 23, 2021, a massive ship named Ever Given became lodged in the Suez Canal, completely blocking traffic in both directions. According to the Suez Canal Authority, the 1,312 foot long (400 m) container ship ran aground during a sandstorm that caused low visibility, impacting the ship’s navigation. The vessel is owned by Taiwanese shipping firm, Evergreen Marine.

With over 2...



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The Technical Traders

Adaptive Fibonacci Price Modeling System Suggests Market Peak May Be Near

Courtesy of Technical Traders

Our Adaptive Fibonacci Price Modeling system is suggesting a moderate price peak may be already setting up in the NASDAQ while the Dow Jones, S&P500, and Transportation Index continue to rally beyond the projected Fibonacci Price Expansion Levels.  This indicates that capital may be shifting away from the already lofty Technology sector and into Basic Materials, Financials, Energy, Consumer Staples, Utilities, as well as other sectors.

This type of a structural market shift indicates a move away from speculation and towards Blue Chip returns. It suggests traders and investors are expecting the US consumer to come back strong (or at least hold up the market at...



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Lee's Free Thinking

Texas, Florida, Arizona, Georgia - The Branch COVIDIANS Are Still Burning Down the House

 

Texas, Florida, Arizona, Georgia – The Branch COVIDIANS Are Still Burning Down the House

Courtesy of Lee Adler, WallStreetExaminer 

The numbers of new cases in some of the hardest hit COVID19 states have started to plateau, or even decline, over the past few days. A few pundits have noted it and concluded that it was a hopeful sign. 

Is it real or is something else going on? Like a restriction in the numbers of tests, or simply the inability to test enough, or are some people simply giving up on getting tested? Because as we all know from our dear leader, the less testing, the less...



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Insider Scoop

Economic Data Scheduled For Friday

Courtesy of Benzinga

  • Data on nonfarm payrolls and unemployment rate for March will be released at 8:30 a.m. ET.
  • US Services Purchasing Managers' Index for March is scheduled for release at 9:45 a.m. ET.
  • The ISM's non-manufacturing index for March will be released at 10:00 a.m. ET.
  • The Baker Hughes North American rig count report for the latest week is scheduled for release at 1:00 p.m. ET.
...

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