Posts Tagged ‘PSQ’

Thrill-Ride Thursday: Jobs, What Jobs?

Yesterday was very hard for us.

Our theoretically conservative $100,000 Virtual Portfolio dropped 6% in one day as we had a farily bearish position into options expiration that I stubbornly refused to adjust this week.  Surely, I thought, after running up 250 Dow points from Thursday, 10,000 would act as some kind of resistance?  We're also up a neat 500 points for the month of October so that's our 5% rule and to not get a 1% pullback, even in the most bullish of markets, is very rare indeed

So we stayed bearish yesterday and got crushed by the AMZN $90 calls we sold as well as UYG calls we sold and our PSQ calls we bought for protection got slaughtered as the Nasdaq flew up not 5% but 5.5% for the month and up 6.2% from it's October 2nd low.  While we are disappointed, we're not terribly concerned as we're only going to roll the calls to November anyway and I did promise the members that, if we hold our breakout levels for 2 closes, then I'll be shifting more bullish.  I've been trying to identify more bullish positions this week but our mix has still tended bearish as I'm just having so much trouble buying into this rally. 

In yesterday's Member Chat, my comments on the current situation was:

I do wish we were more bullish, this is a very smart group of people and we’re pretty bearish but so is the general investing public or there’d be volume to this rally.  I have a hard time ignoring the fact that 600,000 more people lost their jobs this week and, even if it’s "only" 500,000, I still think that’s not really a sign of a healty economy.  I think the REITs are off in fantasy land and I think so is the government, who cannot keep borrowing money at these low rates.  The dollar has dropped 25% of it’s value since March so the market is only 25% ahead of the currency fall which means a flight back to the dollar, which could happen very suddenly if an EU nation like Spain collapses, could send our market down as fast a 9/11. 

That being said, we have no choice but to follow the technicals and now that we can look at nice, easy support levels like Dow 10,000,


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$100,000 Virtual Portfolio Update – Week 5

Well this has been annoying

After 30 days of trading our current virtual portfolio value is just $100,454.39 as we took quite a setback when we sold naked calls ahead of the move up.  Fortunately, we didn't lose our cool and rode it out.  In fact, we only made one trade in the past two weeks so there hasn't been much to report and there still isn't but the end of our first month is a good time for an update.  Of course, we do have a lot of outstanding October Premium to collect so the next two weeks are when we make our real money

We still have $92,315 in cash so plenty of buying power should we choose to deploy it but we are sticking with our plan of scaling into the postions we have, which means we're letting them run out through October 16th expirations and we'll see if we finally get the bargains we've been waiting for to set up our longer term bull plays.  For now, in this VERY conservative, low-touch virtual portfolio, we've been following Warren Buffett's Investing Rule #1:  Don't lose money!

Description Price Paid Last Price Qty Market Value Margin Req. Profit Loss %
AIG CALL 40 Oct 09 $6.30 $5.50 -1 $550.00 $1,196.20 $80.00 12.70%
On target with AIG at $43.40, this is typical of our outstanding sales with the VIX so high – we just have to wait.
AMZN CALL 90 Oct 09 $3.60 $2.80 -10 $2,800.00 $16,127.50 $800.00 22.22%
We wouldn't do this play if we needed the margin but a nice $2,800 to collect if AMZN stays below $90
BAC CALL 10 Jan 11 $8.60


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$101,674 Virtual Portfolio Update – Week 3

Slow and steady wins the race! 

We had a big run and capped our gains a little early for the week by doubling up on our PSQ (short Nasdaq) calls on Thursday's mad run.  This did the job of locking in our profits but that hedge is now making up $450 of losses, which is 1/3 of all our losses for the month.  Still we managed to gain $396 for the week with still just $28,537 in positions so that's another 1% for the week, a pretty good clip

I am happy to say that our $100K Virtual Portfolio is now live and available on WallStreetSurvivor.com at:

 
 
We're actually well ahead of our cash goal as we also have $86,101 in cash along with our $28,537 in positions with $13,768 in margin devoted to some of the longer hedges we've sold.  That leaves us with $147,935 in margin buying power and we're going to use it to do a few "stupid option tricks" into expirations that should pick us up a little extra cash over the next 5 days and Wednesday or Friday we must expect to make our rolling moves for the current month and I'll be sending out Alerts to Members later in the week.  For now, we are very happy with all of our current positions as we have 16 winners and just 7 losers – that's very good for a well-hedged virtual portfolio
 
There are only 6 September contracts for us to worry about and Wednesday would be the earliest day we need to make adjustments on those so we'll concentrate today on things we can make money on tomorrow.  The easiest was to start is to look at some stocks we may want to own for October and take a stab at selling some naked puts on them as we won't be too upset if they get put to us or we'll be happy to pocket the cash if they aren't.  We already sold the MHP October puts from last week's Watch List but we haven't filled the others.  As with those plays, we're not interested


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$100,000 Virtual Portfolio Update – Week 1

It's been a crazy first week but we're up a little already.

So far, only 16 of the 26 contracts we wanted have been filled and we've had some difficulty due to Wall Street Survivor not allowing us to enter spreads, which led us to getting fairly random fills.  Also, I apologize for the lack of access but I've been assured those issues will be resolved next week.  For that reason, I have not deviated from the Alert I sent out on Monday and all those unfilled bids remain in place but let's use this time to review where we are now as far as what's open and what's left to fill.

As we've collected plenty of money already we are achieving our primary goal so this is not about making drastic changes but let's analyse each play and see what has been filled and what needs to be filled next and whether or not we feel we can hit that target next week (action items are highlighted in red):

AIG:  2011 $30 calls filled at $13.45 (now $26.50), 2011 $30 puts filled at $9.05 (now $9) and Sept $33 calls sold for $4.70 (now $17.95). 

It stinks that we couldn't fill the $33 puts as that would have given us a big gain. In chat we discussed taking them out anyway and leaving the long calls as is, expecting a pullback.  No matter what happens, we have an expectation of rolling this caller to October puts and calls and those strikes pay more than $20 so this is a non-issue at the moment and we successfully collected $470.

We do want to roll the 2011 $30 put to the 2011 $55 puts, now $24.88 for $16.  That puts us into a guaranteed $25 spread for $16, a good trade-off

BAC: 5 Sept $17 puts were sold for .51 (now .39) and 5 2011 $20 puts were bought for $5.45 (now $5.55).

We didn't fill the call side of this spread, which was buying 5 2011 $10 calls for $8.60 (now $9.10) and selling 5 Sept $17 calls for $1.60 (now $1.38).  We're looking for the banks to sell off but, if we do trigger the short sale on the upside, we will need to take the cover leap.  Collected $255.


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Phil's Favorites

Animal Spirits: The Absence of Stuff

 

Animal Spirits: The Absence of Stuff

Courtesy of 

Mention Animal Spirits to receive 20% off from YCharts (*New YCharts users only)

Stories Discussed

Best graduation ever

...



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Zero Hedge

Deutsche Bank CEO Vows To Make "Tough Cutbacks" As Shares Slump To Record Low

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Watching Deutsche Bank shares crash to new all-time lows (around €6.35 $7.07) just as the troubled German lender's annual shareholder meeting was getting underway in Frankfurt on Thursday, we could hardly imagine anything more appropriate. Actually, that's not true - there is one thing: The revelation, just hours before the meeting's start, that a 'software glitch' had blocked reporting of suspicious transactions for years.

With DB's brand mired in controversy thanks to Congressional subpoenas that have drawn attention ...



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Kimble Charting Solutions

DAX (Germany) About To Send A Bearish Message To The S&P 500?

Courtesy of Chris Kimble.

Is the DAX index from Germany about to send a bearish message to stocks in Europe and the States? Sure could!

This chart looks at the DAX over the past 9-years. It’s spent the majority of the past 8-years inside of rising channel (1), creating a series of higher lows and higher highs.

It looks to have created a “Double Top” as it was kissing the underside of the rising channel last year at (2).

After creating the potential double top, the DAX index has continued to create a series of lower highs, while experiencing a bearish divergence with the S...



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Insider Scoop

55 Biggest Movers From Yesterday

Courtesy of Benzinga.

Gainers
  • Obalon Therapeutics, Inc. (NASDAQ: OBLN) shares jumped 233.3 percent to close at $1.30 on Wednesday after the company reported expanded data from a large scale commercial use study that was presented at the Digestive Disease Week.
  • Ascent Capital Group, Inc. (NASDAQ: ASCMA) shares jumped 51.4 percent to close at $1.37 after the company announced a restructuring support agreement with Monitronics International.
  • Valeritas Holdings, Inc. (NASDAQ: VLRX) shares dippe...


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Chart School

Weekly Market Recap May 18, 2019

Courtesy of Blain.

China – U.S. trade talk continued to dominate the week.   A heavy selloff Monday was followed by 3 up days, with Friday moderately down.

On Monday, Chinese officials announced retaliatory tariffs against the U.S., hitting $60 billion in annual exports to China with new or expanded duties that could reach 25%.

Then on Wednesday:

The Trump administration plans to delay a decision on instituting new tariffs on car and auto part imports for up to six months, according to media reports.

...

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Digital Currencies

Cryptocurrencies are finally going mainstream - the battle is on to bring them under global control

 

Cryptocurrencies are finally going mainstream – the battle is on to bring them under global control

The high seas are getting lower. dianemeise

Courtesy of Iwa Salami, University of East London

The 21st-century revolutionaries who have dominated cryptocurrencies are having to move over. Mainstream financial institutions are adopting these assets and the blockchain technology that enables them, in what ...



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Biotech

DNA as you've never seen it before, thanks to a new nanotechnology imaging method

Reminder: We are available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

DNA as you've never seen it before, thanks to a new nanotechnology imaging method

A map of DNA with the double helix colored blue, the landmarks in green, and the start points for copying the molecule in red. David Gilbert/Kyle Klein, CC BY-ND

Courtesy of David M. Gilbert, Florida State University

...



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ValueWalk

More Examples Of "Typical Tesla "wise-guy scamminess"

By Jacob Wolinsky. Originally published at ValueWalk.

Stanphyl Capital’s letter to investors for the month of March 2019.

rawpixel / Pixabay

Friends and Fellow Investors:

For March 2019 the fund was up approximately 5.5% net of all fees and expenses. By way of comparison, the S&P 500 was up approximately 1.9% while the Russell 2000 was down approximately 2.1%. Year-to-date 2019 the fund is up approximately 12.8% while the S&P 500 is up approximately 13.6% and the ...



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Members' Corner

Despacito - How to Make Money the Old-Fashioned Way - SLOWLY!

Are you ready to retire?  

For most people, the purpose of investing is to build up enough wealth to allow you to retire.  In general, that's usually enough money to reliably generate a year's worth of your average income, each year into your retirement so that that, plus you Social Security, should be enough to pay your bills without having to draw down on your principle.

Unfortunately, as the last decade has shown us, we can't count on bonds to pay us more than 3% and the average return from the stock market over the past 20 years has been erratic - to say the least - with 4 negative years (2000, 2001, 2002 and 2008) and 14 positives, though mostly in the 10% range on the positives.  A string of losses like we had from 2000-02 could easily wipe out a decades worth of gains.

Still, the stock market has been better over the last 10 (7%) an...



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Mapping The Market

It's Not Capitalism, it's Crony Capitalism

A good start from :

It's Not Capitalism, it's Crony Capitalism

Excerpt:

The threat to America is this: we have abandoned our core philosophy. Our first principle of this nation as a meritocracy, a free-market economy, where competition drives economic decision-making. In its place, we have allowed a malignancy to fester, a virulent pus-filled bastardized form of economics so corrosive in nature, so dangerously pestilent, that it presents an extinction-level threat to America – both the actual nation and the “idea” of America.

This all-encompassing mutant corruption saps men’s souls, crushes opportunities, and destroys economic mobility. Its a Smash & Grab system of ill-gotten re...



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OpTrader

Swing trading portfolio - week of September 11th, 2017

Reminder: OpTrader is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

This post is for all our live virtual trade ideas and daily comments. Please click on "comments" below to follow our live discussion. All of our current  trades are listed in the spreadsheet below, with entry price (1/2 in and All in), and exit prices (1/3 out, 2/3 out, and All out).

We also indicate our stop, which is most of the time the "5 day moving average". All trades, unless indicated, are front-month ATM options. 

Please feel free to participate in the discussion and ask any questions you might have about this virtual portfolio, by clicking on the "comments" link right below.

To learn more about the swing trading virtual portfolio (strategy, performance, FAQ, etc.), please click here ...



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Promotions

Free eBook - "My Top Strategies for 2017"

 

 

Here's a free ebook for you to check out! 

Phil has a chapter in a newly-released eBook that we think you’ll enjoy.

In My Top Strategies for 2017, Phil's chapter is Secret Santa’s Inflation Hedges for 2017.

This chapter isn’t about risk or leverage. Phil present a few smart, practical ideas you can use as a hedge against inflation as well as hedging strategies designed to assist you in staying ahead of the markets.

Some other great content in this free eBook includes:

 

·       How 2017 Will Affect Oil, the US Dollar and the European Union

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About Phil:

Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

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Ilene is editor and affiliate program coordinator for PSW. She manages the site market shadows, archives, more. Contact Ilene to learn about our affiliate and content sharing programs.

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