Posts Tagged ‘risk aversion’

Limited Liquidity in Corporate Bonds is Another Canary in a Coal Mine

Limited Liquidity in Corporate Bonds is Another Canary in a Coal Mine

Taxidermy canary under glass dome.

Courtesy of Rom Badilla, CFA – Bondsquawk.com

Bloomberg is reporting that liquidity is harder to come by as trading costs soar. 

The gap between the cost to buy and sell corporate credit reached the widest in nine months in another sign that investors are increasingly wary of all but the safest government securities amid Europe’s sovereign debt crisis.

The bid-ask spread for credit-default swaps on U.S. investment-grade bonds surged to an average 8.86 basis points as of May 21 from 5.42 basis points a month ago, according to CMA DataVision prices. The difference jumped to a one-year high of 10.57 on May 7, from as low as 3.1 in 2007.

Higher trading cost is not just centered on Credit Default Swaps but also their cash bond counterparts.

The bid-ask spread for AA rated U.S. corporate bonds has increased to about 5 basis points from about 1 basis point earlier this year, said Mark Jicka, managing director at Mizuho Securities USA in New York. The gap for lower rated investment- grade debt has widened to about 10 basis points from 5 basis points.

Liquidity begins to suffer as bond investors sell their holdings, flooding the market with supply.  Also, liquidity can tank as demand evaporates as dealers hunker down by either passing or giving “throw-away” bids to avoid building inventory and taking on risk on their balance sheet.  Furthermore, most dealers will widen out the bid and ask for bonds in their inventory in order to be compensated for the risk of holding it and the event of any deterioration of the credit.

I have seen similar markets where liquidity is poor and finding an exit on a corporate or mortgage bond is difficult.  The Long Term Capital Management episode in the late 90’s and the recent subprime crisis is a good example of poor liquidity during uncertain times.

When Wall Street begins to go into risk aversion mode where they are reluctant to buy bonds from an investor, its a clear signal that choppy waters are ahead.

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What Happens in the Amygdala… Damage to Brain’s Decision-Making Area May Encourage Dicey Gambles

Evidence that the brain’s region called the "amygdala" is at least partly responsible for fear-based loss aversion: – Ilene

What Happens in the Amygdala… Damage to Brain’s Decision-Making Area May Encourage Dicey Gambles

Image Of Thinking Man's Brain Through Bowler Hat

By Katie Moisse at Scientific American   

Imagine you’ve lost your job. You have some money saved, and a chance to double it with a gamble. But if you lose the bet, you’ll forfeit everything. What would you do?

Most people would not gamble their savings, according to Benedetto De Martino of California Institute of Technology, author of a study published February 8 in Proceedings of the National Academy of Science. People tend to choose avoiding losses over acquiring gains—a behavior known as loss-aversion.

But people with damage to the amygdala—an almond-shaped part of the brain involved in emotion and decision-making—are more likely to take bigger risks with smaller potential gains, De Martino’s study found. Two women with bilateral amygdala damage showed a dramatic reduction in loss aversion compared with age-matched control subjects on a series of experimental gambles, despite understanding full well the values and risks involved.

Continue reading here.>>


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Politics

TRUMP CONCEDES (SORT OF)

 

TRUMP CONCEDES (SORT OF)

Courtesy of Teri Kanefield

The Trump Legal team filed more documents today in the appellate court. I tweeted a bit about how silly they were (let me know if you all want me to march through them). Then this happened:

Trump giving the go-ahead for the transition to get underway was (I believe) the closest he will get to conceding the election. Two amusing things happened. First, Trump tweeted this about 10 minutes after Emily Murphy submitted a letter saying she would move forward, and that she has made her decisions solely on her own and not at anyone’s direction. Looks like Trump wanted people to think that she was, in fact, acting at his direction.

The other amusing part was that Tr...



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Phil's Favorites

TRUMP CONCEDES (SORT OF)

 

TRUMP CONCEDES (SORT OF)

Courtesy of Teri Kanefield

The Trump Legal team filed more documents today in the appellate court. I tweeted a bit about how silly they were (let me know if you all want me to march through them). Then this happened:

Trump giving the go-ahead for the transition to get underway was (I believe) the closest he will get to conceding the election. Two amusing things happened. First, Trump tweeted this about 10 minutes after Emily Murphy submitted a letter saying she would move forward, and that she has made her decisions solely on her own and not at anyone’s direction. Looks like Trump wanted people to think that she was, in fact, acting at his direction.

The other amusing part was t...



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ValueWalk

Proposed Klamath River Dams Removal: The Height Of Obtuse Thinking?

By William E. Simpson II. Originally published at ValueWalk.

Considering the recent revelations as published in several California newspapers regarding the Klamath River dams removal proposal, many important questions arise to those who are using logic to examine the fishy-reasoning for considering the removal of several perfectly good dams.

Q3 2020 hedge fund letters, conferences and more

Photo: William E. Simpson II: CAL-FIRE tanker trucks and helicopters dr...

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Zero Hedge

As Oil Soars, Former NHL Player Turned Hedge Fund Manager Says "Inevitable" It Will Go Higher

Courtesy of ZeroHedge View original post here.

Update (1100ET): WTI jyust broke above $45 as today's move goes vertical. This is the highest price for oil since March, which is interesting given that Cushing storage is near capacity...

*  *  *

If you're bullish on oil, we've got good news and bad news. The good news is that one hedge fund manager is finally taking an outsized bet on oil and is making headlines...



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Biotech/COVID-19

Why the Oxford AstraZeneca vaccine is now a global game changer

 

Why the Oxford AstraZeneca vaccine is now a global game changer

Courtesy of Michael Head, University of Southampton

In the long dark tunnel that has been 2020, November stands out as the month that light appeared. Some might see it as a bright light, others as a faint light – but it is unmistakably a light.

On November 9, Pfizer announced the interim results of its candidate vaccine, showing it to be “more than 90% effective” in preventing symptomatic COVID-19 in late-stage human trials. The news was greeted with joy.

A ...



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Chart School

Bitcoin Chart Review

Courtesy of Read the Ticker

Bitcoin is testing its old all time high. Bitcoin is not alone as it is at the same party of all risk on trends. Abundant end of year liquidity, add the relief of finishing US elections will see the end of the buyers strike and gains should continue (just like 2016).

Bitcoin is on fourth types of charts held within readtheticker.com, each chart answers different questions.

Charts ...

Cycle charts shows off price and time cycles, with forecasts.


Click for popup. Clear your browser cache if image is not showing.




Long term channels, with time and price targets.


Click f...



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Kimble Charting Solutions

Transports Sending Strong Bullish Message To Other Dow Indices?

Courtesy of Chris Kimble

Are Transportation stocks about to send a quality bullish message to other Dow indices this month? Sure could be!

This 3-pack looks at the Dow Jones Industrials, Transports, and Utilities indices on a monthly basis.

One week from the end of a month, the DJ Transports are attempting an important bullish breakout at (1). Unless a sharp reversal takes place in the next week, Transports could close out the month at new monthly closing highs!

The Dow is attempting to close at all-time highs this month, while the Dow Utilities Index remains a few percent below 2020 highs....



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Digital Currencies

Dalio Admits "I Might Be Missing Something" As Bitcoin Surges Above $18,000

Courtesy of ZeroHedge

Since the US election, Bitcoin prices (in USD) have surged a stunning 40%, also lurching higher after each vaccine headline hit.

Source: Bloomberg

Getting ever closer to its all-time record high...

Source: Bloomberg

As crypto prices soared overnight, Bridgewater Associates founder Ray Dalio stepped back into the fray, saying in a Twitter thread that “I might be missing something about Bitco...



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Mapping The Market

COVID-19 Forces More Than Half of Asset Management Firms to Accelerate Adoption of Digital Marketing Technology

By Jacob Wolinsky. Originally published at ValueWalk.

There is no doubt that the use of technology to support client engagement initiatives brings both opportunities and threats but this has been brought into sharp focus this year with the COVID-19 pandemic.

The crisis has brought to the fore the need for firms to enable flexibility in client engagement – the expectation that providers will communicate to clients on their terms, at their speed and frequency and on their preferred channels, is now a given. This is even more critical when clients are experiencing unparalleled anxiety from both market conditions and their own personal circumstances.

...

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The Technical Traders

Adaptive Fibonacci Price Modeling System Suggests Market Peak May Be Near

Courtesy of Technical Traders

Our Adaptive Fibonacci Price Modeling system is suggesting a moderate price peak may be already setting up in the NASDAQ while the Dow Jones, S&P500, and Transportation Index continue to rally beyond the projected Fibonacci Price Expansion Levels.  This indicates that capital may be shifting away from the already lofty Technology sector and into Basic Materials, Financials, Energy, Consumer Staples, Utilities, as well as other sectors.

This type of a structural market shift indicates a move away from speculation and towards Blue Chip returns. It suggests traders and investors are expecting the US consumer to come back strong (or at least hold up the market at...



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Lee's Free Thinking

Texas, Florida, Arizona, Georgia - The Branch COVIDIANS Are Still Burning Down the House

 

Texas, Florida, Arizona, Georgia – The Branch COVIDIANS Are Still Burning Down the House

Courtesy of Lee Adler, WallStreetExaminer 

The numbers of new cases in some of the hardest hit COVID19 states have started to plateau, or even decline, over the past few days. A few pundits have noted it and concluded that it was a hopeful sign. 

Is it real or is something else going on? Like a restriction in the numbers of tests, or simply the inability to test enough, or are some people simply giving up on getting tested? Because as we all know from our dear leader, the less testing, the less...



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Insider Scoop

Economic Data Scheduled For Friday

Courtesy of Benzinga

  • Data on nonfarm payrolls and unemployment rate for March will be released at 8:30 a.m. ET.
  • US Services Purchasing Managers' Index for March is scheduled for release at 9:45 a.m. ET.
  • The ISM's non-manufacturing index for March will be released at 10:00 a.m. ET.
  • The Baker Hughes North American rig count report for the latest week is scheduled for release at 1:00 p.m. ET.
...

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About Phil:

Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

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About Ilene:

Ilene is editor and affiliate program coordinator for PSW. Contact Ilene to learn about our affiliate and content sharing programs.