Posts Tagged ‘shadow inventory’

32% of Homeowners Expect Home Prices to Drop Next Year, Highest Short-Term Pessimism Ever; Recognition Phase Underway

32% of Homeowners Expect Home Prices to Drop Next Year, Highest Short-Term Pessimism Ever; Recognition Phase Underway

foreclosuresCourtesy of Mish

Rasmussen Reports recently released an interesting survey that shows Homeowners Are More Pessimistic Than Ever About the Short-Term Housing Market

A new Rasmussen Reports survey finds that 32% expect the value of their home to decrease over the next year, the highest finding since Rasmussen Reports began asking the question regularly in December 2008. Now this might make you sell your house fast with Covenant Properties or any other company, but read on.

Just 21% believe the value of their home will go up over the next year.

Looking longer term, people are feeling a bit better. Fifty-two percent (52%) of homeowners say the value of their home will increase over the next five years, the highest level of optimism measured since May.

For the second month in a row, only 55% of homeowners say their home is worth more than their mortgage. A third (33%), however, report that the mortgage is bigger than the home value.

Over half of Americans know someone who has lost their home because they could not pay their mortgage, but just 20% believe that when banks foreclose on a home, it's generally due to unfair lending practices.

Recognition Phase

Some will look at the survey results and see a contrarian indicator. I rather doubt it. I do not think we bottom until homeowners sour on long-term optimism.

Given current conditions, housing inventory, shadow inventory, another jobless "recovery", and changing social attitudes from younger generations, home prices will likely stay depressed for a while.

So instead of the survey being a contrarian indicator, I view these attitudes as part of the recognition phase. Consumers are starting to realize the economic headwinds and what that will do to housing prices in the short-term, even if they have not yet figured out the long-term demographic mess.

Time and Price is the Only Legitimate Cure

The most encouraging sign in the report is that "a majority of Americans continue to oppose any government intervention in the housing market."

The only legitimate cure…
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The Swelling Backlog

The Swelling Backlog

Courtesy of MIKE WHITNEY writing at CounterPunch 

Home ownership has become an albatross. Prices are falling, demand is weak, foreclosures are soaring, and inventory is backed up to the moon. If there’s an upside, it’s a mystery to me.

Many of the people who bought homes in the last 6 to 7 years, realize now that they were caught in a massive mortgage laundering scam. The banks lured unqualified applicants into "easy-term" loans to so they could peddle their "fishwrap" mortgage paper to clueless investors. The con worked so well, that housing prices doubled or--in some cases--tripled in value. But the inflated prices did not reflect supply/demand fundamentals. They reflected fraud-- industrial-scale fraud that created an $8 trillion housing bubble. Now the bubble has burst and prices are returning to trend. That means foreclosures will rise while millions of homeowners will slip deeper into the red.

This is from Bloomberg News:

"The slide in U.S. home prices may have another three years to go as sellers add as many as 12 million more properties to the market. Shadow inventory—the supply of homes in default or foreclosure that may be offered for sale—is preventing prices from bottoming after a 28 percent plunge from 2006, according to analysts from Moody’s Analytics Inc., Fannie Mae, Morgan Stanley and Barclays Plc. Those properties are in addition to houses that are vacant or that may soon be put on the market by owners.

“The best thing that could happen is for prices to get to a level that clears the market,” said Joshua Shapiro chief U.S. economist of Maria Fiorini Ramirez Inc, who predicts prices may fall another 10 percent to 15 percent. “Right now, buyers know it hasn’t hit bottom, so they’re sitting on the sidelines.” (U.S. Home Prices Face 3-Year Drop as Inventory Surge Looms, John Gittlesohn and Kathleen Howley, Bloomberg)

The Obama administration has tried everything to boost housing sales--incentives, subsidies, tax breaks, even record-low interest rates--but nothing has worked. Now it looks like they’re ready to throw in the towel and let prices fall, but that presents risks, too. Presently, there’s a backlog of 4 million homes listed with brokers. (At the current pace, it would take 12 months to sell that number of homes.) However, as Bloomberg notes, there’s another 12 million properties that have been kept off the market. As those homes…
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Zero Hedge

Blain: "Markets Are Still In Denial/Fool-Themselves Mode"

Courtesy of ZeroHedge View original post here.

Authored by Bill Blain via MorningPorridge.com,

“Cheer up my lads ‘tis to glory we steer, to add something new to this wonderful year…”

Stocks tumbled 20% in H1, but Central Banks are fixated on Inflation as the No 1 priority with higher interest rates nailed on. Supply chain issues remain difficult, meaning corporate earnings will remain under pressure. The market is setting up for further weakness through H2....



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Kimble Charting Solutions

Nvidia Stock On The Ropes As Semiconductors Leadership Tested!

Courtesy of Chris Kimble

It is imperative for active investors to understand the importance of market leadership, both on the way up and down.

And this is proving to be very true of the Semiconductors sector. The Semis played a HUGE role in the tech bull market, helping to push the Nasdaq and Nasdaq 100 higher and higher over more than a decade.

But, as we have covered several times this year (click here for our latest article on Semis), tech turned lower late last year… and the Semis were the warning as a leader to the downside.

So t...



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ValueWalk

DE Shaw Ordered To Pay Record $52m Defamation Award To Daniel Michalow

By Anna Peel. Originally published at ValueWalk.

Today, a FINRA arbitration panel awarded the largest defamation award to an individual in recent history to Daniel Michalow in the amount of $52,125,000.

This dispute between D. E. Shaw, one of the largest and most successful hedge funds in the world, and its former partner Daniel Michalow, received significant press attention over the past four years.

Contrary to what D. E. Shaw led the public and its investors to believe about the firm’s “investigation” and Daniel’s departure, “the panel specifically finds that Claimant did not commit sexual misconduct.” The panel also found the members of D. E. Shaw’s Executive Committee, inc...



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Phil's Favorites

Kremlin tightens control over Russians' online lives - threatening domestic freedoms and the global internet

 

Kremlin tightens control over Russians’ online lives – threatening domestic freedoms and the global internet

Russia has pioneered the concept of digital sovereignty and used it to severely restrict Russians’ access to the internet. NurPhoto via Getty Images

Courtesy of Stanislav Budnitsky, Indiana University

Since the start of Russia’s war on Ukraine in late February 2022, Russian internet users have experienced what has been dubbed the descent of a “...



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Politics

Kremlin tightens control over Russians' online lives - threatening domestic freedoms and the global internet

 

Kremlin tightens control over Russians’ online lives – threatening domestic freedoms and the global internet

Russia has pioneered the concept of digital sovereignty and used it to severely restrict Russians’ access to the internet. NurPhoto via Getty Images

Courtesy of Stanislav Budnitsky, Indiana University

Since the start of Russia’s war on Ukraine in late February 2022, Russian internet users have experienced what has been dubbed the descent of a “...



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Chart School

Gold Stocks Review

Courtesy of Read the Ticker

Gold miners do well when gold is higher, and borrowing and gasoline costs are lower.

Lets start with a question: Why do governments own gold?

1) The need it to support their economy during an energy crisis. If their currency is collapsing oil producers will not take fiat for settlement, but they will accept gold.
2) While the US prints money the purchasing power of the US dollar is declining, hence gold is a hedge.

A particular market action which forces traders to move gold higher is when oil moves higher while the US dollar falls. This means the US dollar is losing purchasing power against oil, therefore gold will go higher as the demand for (1) above explodes. Some history, gold moved higher sharply in these years 2007, 2011, 2016, 2020. All ...

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Digital Currencies

Scams and cryptocurrency can go hand in hand - here's how they work and what to watch out for

 

Scams and cryptocurrency can go hand in hand – here’s how they work and what to watch out for

The anonymous nature of cryptocurrency transactions is ideal for con artists. seksan Mongkhonkhamsao/Moment via Getty Images

Courtesy of Yaniv Hanoch, University of Southampton and Stacey Wood, Scripps College

When one of our students told us they were going to drop out of college ...



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Biotech/COVID-19

At last, COVID-19 shots for little kids - 5 essential reads

 

At last, COVID-19 shots for little kids – 5 essential reads

Millions of U.S. children between the ages of 6 months and 4 years will soon be eligible for COVID-19 shots. FatCamera/E+ via Getty Images

Courtesy of Amanda Mascarelli, The Conversation

For many parents of kids under age 5, a safe and effective COVID-19 vaccine could not come soon enough. A full year and a half after shots first became available for adults, their wait is nearly over.

On June 17, 2022, the Food and Drug Administration ...



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Promotions

Phil: Be the House Not the Gambler at the Fintech Conference in Vegas

 

Phil gave an excellent, educational presentation called "Be the House Not the Gambler: Using Stock Options to Significantly Boost Your Portfolio Performance" at the FinTwit Conference hosted by Lupton Capital and Benzinga on May 14 in Las Vegas. The video is set to start playing at 5:30:45, when Phil takes the stage (but you can see previous presentations by backtracking).

AGENDA 
9:00 AM Opening Remarks with Jonah Lupton, Entrepreneur & Investor
9:05 AM Wagging the Dog: How to Profit From Derivative Driven Moves in the Market with Steven Place, Founder, Investingwithoptions.com
10:00 AM The MarketWebs & The Path of Least Resistance, Christian Fromhertz, CEO, The Tribeca Trade Group
10:55 AM Fireside Chat with Gareth Mann, Founder & CEO, AlphaStream & Spencer Israel, Executive Producer, Benzinga
11:25 AM Sponsor Pitch: Carolyn Bao, VP of Marke...



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Mapping The Market

Suez Canal: Critical Waterway Comes to a Halt

 

Suez Canal: Critical Waterway Comes to a Halt

Courtesy of Marcus Lu, Visual Capitalist

The Suez Canal: A Critical Waterway Comes to a Halt

On March 23, 2021, a massive ship named Ever Given became lodged in the Suez Canal, completely blocking traffic in both directions. According to the Suez Canal Authority, the 1,312 foot long (400 m) container ship ran aground during a sandstorm that caused low visibility, impacting the ship’s navigation. The vessel is owned by Taiwanese shipping firm, Evergreen Marine.

With over 2...



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The Technical Traders

Adaptive Fibonacci Price Modeling System Suggests Market Peak May Be Near

Courtesy of Technical Traders

Our Adaptive Fibonacci Price Modeling system is suggesting a moderate price peak may be already setting up in the NASDAQ while the Dow Jones, S&P500, and Transportation Index continue to rally beyond the projected Fibonacci Price Expansion Levels.  This indicates that capital may be shifting away from the already lofty Technology sector and into Basic Materials, Financials, Energy, Consumer Staples, Utilities, as well as other sectors.

This type of a structural market shift indicates a move away from speculation and towards Blue Chip returns. It suggests traders and investors are expecting the US consumer to come back strong (or at least hold up the market at...



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Lee's Free Thinking

Texas, Florida, Arizona, Georgia - The Branch COVIDIANS Are Still Burning Down the House

 

Texas, Florida, Arizona, Georgia – The Branch COVIDIANS Are Still Burning Down the House

Courtesy of Lee Adler, WallStreetExaminer 

The numbers of new cases in some of the hardest hit COVID19 states have started to plateau, or even decline, over the past few days. A few pundits have noted it and concluded that it was a hopeful sign. 

Is it real or is something else going on? Like a restriction in the numbers of tests, or simply the inability to test enough, or are some people simply giving up on getting tested? Because as we all know from our dear leader, the less testing, the less...



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Insider Scoop

Economic Data Scheduled For Friday

Courtesy of Benzinga

  • Data on nonfarm payrolls and unemployment rate for March will be released at 8:30 a.m. ET.
  • US Services Purchasing Managers' Index for March is scheduled for release at 9:45 a.m. ET.
  • The ISM's non-manufacturing index for March will be released at 10:00 a.m. ET.
  • The Baker Hughes North American rig count report for the latest week is scheduled for release at 1:00 p.m. ET.
...

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Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

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