Posts Tagged ‘shadow inventory’

32% of Homeowners Expect Home Prices to Drop Next Year, Highest Short-Term Pessimism Ever; Recognition Phase Underway

32% of Homeowners Expect Home Prices to Drop Next Year, Highest Short-Term Pessimism Ever; Recognition Phase Underway

foreclosuresCourtesy of Mish

Rasmussen Reports recently released an interesting survey that shows Homeowners Are More Pessimistic Than Ever About the Short-Term Housing Market

A new Rasmussen Reports survey finds that 32% expect the value of their home to decrease over the next year, the highest finding since Rasmussen Reports began asking the question regularly in December 2008. Now this might make you sell your house fast with Covenant Properties or any other company, but read on.

Just 21% believe the value of their home will go up over the next year.

Looking longer term, people are feeling a bit better. Fifty-two percent (52%) of homeowners say the value of their home will increase over the next five years, the highest level of optimism measured since May.

For the second month in a row, only 55% of homeowners say their home is worth more than their mortgage. A third (33%), however, report that the mortgage is bigger than the home value.

Over half of Americans know someone who has lost their home because they could not pay their mortgage, but just 20% believe that when banks foreclose on a home, it's generally due to unfair lending practices.

Recognition Phase

Some will look at the survey results and see a contrarian indicator. I rather doubt it. I do not think we bottom until homeowners sour on long-term optimism.

Given current conditions, housing inventory, shadow inventory, another jobless "recovery", and changing social attitudes from younger generations, home prices will likely stay depressed for a while.

So instead of the survey being a contrarian indicator, I view these attitudes as part of the recognition phase. Consumers are starting to realize the economic headwinds and what that will do to housing prices in the short-term, even if they have not yet figured out the long-term demographic mess.

Time and Price is the Only Legitimate Cure

The most encouraging sign in the report is that "a majority of Americans continue to oppose any government intervention in the housing market."

The only legitimate cure…
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The Swelling Backlog

The Swelling Backlog

Courtesy of MIKE WHITNEY writing at CounterPunch 

Home ownership has become an albatross. Prices are falling, demand is weak, foreclosures are soaring, and inventory is backed up to the moon. If there’s an upside, it’s a mystery to me.

Many of the people who bought homes in the last 6 to 7 years, realize now that they were caught in a massive mortgage laundering scam. The banks lured unqualified applicants into "easy-term" loans to so they could peddle their "fishwrap" mortgage paper to clueless investors. The con worked so well, that housing prices doubled or--in some cases--tripled in value. But the inflated prices did not reflect supply/demand fundamentals. They reflected fraud-- industrial-scale fraud that created an $8 trillion housing bubble. Now the bubble has burst and prices are returning to trend. That means foreclosures will rise while millions of homeowners will slip deeper into the red.

This is from Bloomberg News:

"The slide in U.S. home prices may have another three years to go as sellers add as many as 12 million more properties to the market. Shadow inventory—the supply of homes in default or foreclosure that may be offered for sale—is preventing prices from bottoming after a 28 percent plunge from 2006, according to analysts from Moody’s Analytics Inc., Fannie Mae, Morgan Stanley and Barclays Plc. Those properties are in addition to houses that are vacant or that may soon be put on the market by owners.

“The best thing that could happen is for prices to get to a level that clears the market,” said Joshua Shapiro chief U.S. economist of Maria Fiorini Ramirez Inc, who predicts prices may fall another 10 percent to 15 percent. “Right now, buyers know it hasn’t hit bottom, so they’re sitting on the sidelines.” (U.S. Home Prices Face 3-Year Drop as Inventory Surge Looms, John Gittlesohn and Kathleen Howley, Bloomberg)

The Obama administration has tried everything to boost housing sales--incentives, subsidies, tax breaks, even record-low interest rates--but nothing has worked. Now it looks like they’re ready to throw in the towel and let prices fall, but that presents risks, too. Presently, there’s a backlog of 4 million homes listed with brokers. (At the current pace, it would take 12 months to sell that number of homes.) However, as Bloomberg notes, there’s another 12 million properties that have been kept off the market. As those homes…
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Phil's Favorites

Gamestop Monday....WTF Happened?

 

Gamestop's crazy run on Monday didn't stop there. Take a look at Gamestop Tuesday, Gold Edition. The daily chart doesn't show it but GME surged another 60 points in after-hours trading! 

Source: Investors.com

Gamestop Monday….WTF Happened?

Courtesy of Howard Lindzon 

I like this ‘explainer’ post from ...



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ValueWalk

All Eyes On Tesla, Apple, Facebook Q4 Earnings Tomorrow

By Gorilla Trades. Originally published at ValueWalk.

Commenting on Apple, Tesla, Facebook Q4 earnings, and today’s trading Gorilla Trades strategist Ken Berman said:

Q4 2020 hedge fund letters, conferences and more

Stocks Settle Down

Today's low-volatility session was a typical pre-Fed-day one, it’s still a bullish sign following a hectic week of trading. The fact that stocks settled down today, avoiding a deeper pullback shows just how resilient this market is in the face of the growing valuation fears.

Volatility was very low at the level of the key sectors today, and the clear trends of the past weeks were les...



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Kimble Charting Solutions

Largest Bearish Reversal In 20-Years Sends Caution Message To Stocks!

Courtesy of Chris Kimble

Economically sensitive stocks have frequently sent an important message to the S&P 500. Is it possible that the largest bearish reversal pattern in 20-years could be sending an important message?

This chart looks at U.S. Steel (X) on a monthly basis over the past 20-years. Since the 2008 highs, “X” has created a series of lower highs and lower lows, creating a falling channel (2). Over the past 13-years, line (1) has come into play as support and resistance numerous times.

“X” created the largest bullish reversal pattern in 20-years in...



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Zero Hedge

Netherlands Hit With Third Night Of Anti-Curfew Riots 

Courtesy of ZeroHedge View original post here.

Dutch riots unfolded for the third consecutive night as anti-lockdown protesters defied the country's new curfew rules to mitigate the spread of COVID-19, according to RT News

At least 150 people were arrested Monday night in Amsterdam and Rotterdam, where stores were looted and vandalized. 

BLM burned down dozens of American cities & murdered multiple people to potentially get a black person printed on a piece of paper

Biden ...



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Biotech/COVID-19

South African scientists who discovered new COVID-19 variant share what they know

 

South African scientists who discovered new COVID-19 variant share what they know

Health care workers and patients in the temporary outside area Steve Biko Academic Hospital created to screen and treat suspected Covid-19 cases in Pretoria. Alet Pretorius/Gallo Images via Getty Images

Courtesy of Willem Hanekom, Africa Health Research Institute (AHRI) and Tulio de Oliveira, University of KwaZulu-Natal

Late last year the ...



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Digital Currencies

Ethereum Surges To New Record High As DeFi Boom Re-Accelerates

Courtesy of ZeroHedge View original post here.

Coins that power decentralized finance (DeFi) protocols are soaring recently as bitcoin treads water.

While bitcoin grabbed all the headlines early on in the year, it is the rest of the crypto space that is stealing its thunder most recently as Ethereum, the backbone of the smart contracts that define much of the DeFi space, has drastically outperformed...

Source: Bloomberg

That is the highest for ETH relative to BTC since

...

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Politics

Far-right groups move to messaging apps as tech companies crack down on extremist social media

 

Far-right groups move to messaging apps as tech companies crack down on extremist social media

Far-right groups like the Proud Boys, seen here marching in Washington, D.C., on Dec. 12, are increasingly organizing their activities on messaging services like Telegram. Stephanie Keith/Getty Images

Courtesy of Kevin GrishamCalifornia State University San Bernardino

Right-wing extremists called for open revolt against the U.S. government ...



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Chart School

RTT browsing latest..

Courtesy of Read the Ticker

Please review a collection of WWW browsing results. The information here is delayed by a few months, members get the most recent content.



Date Found: Saturday, 11 July 2020, 05:26:16 PM

Click for popup. Clear your browser cache if image is not showing.


Comment: This is lack of liquidity means support is likely to break if it is tested hard!



Date Found: Saturday, 11 July 2020, 09:51:58 PM

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Comment: Nasdaq losing momentum.



Da...

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Mapping The Market

The Countries With The Most COVID-19 Cases

 

The Countries With The Most COVID-19 Cases

By Martin Armstrong, Statista, Jan 12, 2021

This regularly updated infographic keeps track of the countries with the most confirmed Covid-19 cases. The United States is still at the top of the list, with a total now exceeding the 22 million mark, according to Johns Hopkins University figures. The total global figure is now over 85 million, while there have been more than 1.9 million deaths.

You will find more infographics at ...



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The Technical Traders

Adaptive Fibonacci Price Modeling System Suggests Market Peak May Be Near

Courtesy of Technical Traders

Our Adaptive Fibonacci Price Modeling system is suggesting a moderate price peak may be already setting up in the NASDAQ while the Dow Jones, S&P500, and Transportation Index continue to rally beyond the projected Fibonacci Price Expansion Levels.  This indicates that capital may be shifting away from the already lofty Technology sector and into Basic Materials, Financials, Energy, Consumer Staples, Utilities, as well as other sectors.

This type of a structural market shift indicates a move away from speculation and towards Blue Chip returns. It suggests traders and investors are expecting the US consumer to come back strong (or at least hold up the market at...



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Lee's Free Thinking

Texas, Florida, Arizona, Georgia - The Branch COVIDIANS Are Still Burning Down the House

 

Texas, Florida, Arizona, Georgia – The Branch COVIDIANS Are Still Burning Down the House

Courtesy of Lee Adler, WallStreetExaminer 

The numbers of new cases in some of the hardest hit COVID19 states have started to plateau, or even decline, over the past few days. A few pundits have noted it and concluded that it was a hopeful sign. 

Is it real or is something else going on? Like a restriction in the numbers of tests, or simply the inability to test enough, or are some people simply giving up on getting tested? Because as we all know from our dear leader, the less testing, the less...



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Insider Scoop

Economic Data Scheduled For Friday

Courtesy of Benzinga

  • Data on nonfarm payrolls and unemployment rate for March will be released at 8:30 a.m. ET.
  • US Services Purchasing Managers' Index for March is scheduled for release at 9:45 a.m. ET.
  • The ISM's non-manufacturing index for March will be released at 10:00 a.m. ET.
  • The Baker Hughes North American rig count report for the latest week is scheduled for release at 1:00 p.m. ET.
...

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Promotions

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Feb. 26, 1pm EST

Click HERE to join the PSW weekly webinar at 1 pm EST.

Phil will discuss positions, COVID-19, market volatility -- the selloff -- and more! 

This week, we also have a special presentation from Mike Anton of TradeExchange.com. It's a new service that we're excited to be a part of! 

Mike will show off the TradeExchange's new platform which you can try for free.  

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