Posts Tagged ‘social group’

Confirmation Bias, The Investor’s Curse

Confirmation Bias, The Investor’s Curse

Courtesy of Tim at The Psy-Fi Blog

Woman in the Tomb at

Clinging to the Wreckage of Old Ideas

The problem of confirmation bias – the tendency of people to seek evidence confirming an already held opinion and to avoid looking for that which might upset their carefully constructed mental models has attracted a lot of attention from researchers. It occurs across all domains of human endeavour and triggers all sorts of implausible behaviour, yet investors and institutions remain in its thrall.

We find examples in law courts and doctor’s surgeries, in scientist’s laboratories and the lairs of legislators. So we shouldn’t be surprised to find it coursing through the veins of economists and investors, colouring their every thought and structuring their every idea. Of course a rational market participant, faced with a theory built on a crumbling cornerstone will abandon their ideas and look for some new ones. As you’d expect, therefore, we do no such thing, clinging irrationally to the wreckage of our dreams as they collapse around us.
 

Bedford and Cavour,

Disconfirming Science

Science is perhaps the area in which we might expect confirmation bias to be least effective. After all, the processes of science are built around the institutionalisation of disconfirmation. New ideas have to run the gamut of envious colleagues who generally hate nothing more than a smart ass and take great pleasure in proving them wrong. Despite this scientists have generally proven remarkably reluctant to give up discredited theories. Indeed science has often proceeded for decades on the basis of ideas that could easily have been disconfirmed had anyone been sufficiently motivated to do so.

So, for instance, the idea that the universe is stable and unchanging was held way into the twentieth century despite the fact that Newton’s laws of gravitation implied something different. To be precise, they suggested that unless the universe was actually expanding gravity should be causing all the bits of matter in the cosmos to hurtle together towards a central point in a manner calculated to render discussions of globalisation, polar bear populations and national debt levels redundant. Yet when Einstein’s theories also predicted an expanding universe he simply made up a special constant, which he later had to ruefully remove, to stop this unwanted behaviour so ingrained was the…
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Phil's Favorites

Momentum Monday - Liquidity, Liquidity, Liquidity...The Startup Multiplier Effect and The SPAC is Back?

 

Momentum Monday – Liquidity, Liquidity, Liquidity…The Startup Multiplier Effect and The SPAC is Back?

Courtesy of Howard Lindzon

Good Monday morning everyone.

I will get right to it…here is this weeks Momentum Monday episode with Ivanhoff and I talking markets and momentum. We share a few new ideas – take a look at $JAMF (Apple has finally come for the Fortune 1000) and $EBAY (the long tail winner of collectibles boom) and let us not forget Tesla back at all-time highs. You can watch/listen to thi...



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Zero Hedge

German Official Warns Risk Of Electric Vehicle Fires Is "Completely Unaddressed" 

Courtesy of ZeroHedge View original post here.

Last month, a massive fire broke out at a German bus depot, destroying 20 electric buses. First responders weren't prepared nor properly trained in extinguishing lithium-ion fires. The fire prompted one German official to question the zero-emissions vehicles as the "spontaneously" combustion of the batteries "is completely unaddressed," according to RT News

"The risk of these fires, including in other locations ...



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Politics

Trump wants the National Archives to keep his papers away from investigators - post-Watergate laws and executive orders may not let him

 

Trump wants the National Archives to keep his papers away from investigators – post-Watergate laws and executive orders may not let him

Nixon resigned after tapes he had fought making public incriminated him in the Watergate coverup. Bettmann/Getty

Courtesy of Shannon Bow O'Brien, The University of Texas at Austin College of Liberal Arts

The National Archives is the United States’ memory, a repository of artifacts that includes everything from half-fo...



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Biotech/COVID-19

An infectious disease expert explains new federal rules on 'mix-and-match' vaccine booster shots

 

An infectious disease expert explains new federal rules on ‘mix-and-match’ vaccine booster shots

Discuss with your doctor whether or not you need a booster – and if so, which vaccine will work best for you. Justin Sullivan/Getty Images News via Getty Images

Courtesy of Glenn J. Rapsinski, University of Pittsburgh Health Sciences

Many Americans now have the green light to get a COVID-19 vaccine booster – and the flexibility to receive a different brand than the ori...



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Digital Currencies

Bitcoin: why its value has rocketed once again

 

Bitcoin: why its value has rocketed once again

Shutterstock/rzoze19

Courtesy of Andrew Urquhart, University of Reading

Bitcoin’s journey into mainstream finance has reached another major milestone – and another record price. The cryptocurrency was trading at US$66,975 (£48,456) following the launch of an exchange traded fund (ETF) in the US w...



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Chart School

Price and Volume Swing Analysis on Bitcoin and Silver

Courtesy of Read the Ticker

Many take guidance from news, pundits or advisors. Well sometimes the swings of price and volume are a better measure of what happens next.

The big boys do not accumulate or distribute in single 1 second trade, they build positions over weeks, months and years. They use price swings in the market to build or reduce positions, and you can see their intent by studying swings of price and volume and applying Tim Ord logic as written in his book called 'The Secret Science of Price and Volume: Techniques for Spotting Market Trends, Hot Sectors, and the Best Stocks'.

Tim Ord is a follower of Richard Wyckoff logic, his book has added to the studies of Richard Wyckoff, Richard Ney and Bob Evans.

Richard Wyckoff after years of...

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Promotions

Phil's Interview on Options Trading with TD Bank

TD Bank's host Bryan Rogers interviewed Phil on June 10 as part of TD's Options Education Month. If you missed the program, be sure to watch the video below. It should be required viewing for anyone trading or thinking about trading using options. 

Watch here:

TD's webinar with Phil (link) or right here at PSW

Screenshots of TD's slides illustrating Phil's examples:

 

 

&n...



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Kimble Charting Solutions

Crude Oil Cleared For Blast Off On This Dual Breakout?

Courtesy of Chris Kimble

Is Crude Oil about to blast off and hit much higher prices? It might be worth being aware of what could be taking place this month in this important commodity!

Crude Oil has created lower highs over the past 13-years, since peaking back in 2008, along line (1).

It created a “Double Top at (2), then it proceeded to decline more than 60% in four months.

The countertrend rally in Crude Oil has it attempting to break above its 13-year falling resistance as well as its double top at (3).

A successful breakout at (3) would suggest Crude Oil is about to mo...



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ValueWalk

Managing Investments As A Charity Or Nonprofit

By Anna Peel. Originally published at ValueWalk.

Maintaining financial viability is a constant challenge for charities and nonprofit organizations.

Q4 2020 hedge fund letters, conferences and more

The past year has underscored that challenge. The pandemic has not just affected investment returns – it’s also had serious implications for charitable activities and the ability to fundraise. For some organizations, it’s even raised doubts about whether they can continue to operate.

Finding ways to generate long-term, sustainable returns for ...



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Mapping The Market

Suez Canal: Critical Waterway Comes to a Halt

 

Suez Canal: Critical Waterway Comes to a Halt

Courtesy of Marcus Lu, Visual Capitalist

The Suez Canal: A Critical Waterway Comes to a Halt

On March 23, 2021, a massive ship named Ever Given became lodged in the Suez Canal, completely blocking traffic in both directions. According to the Suez Canal Authority, the 1,312 foot long (400 m) container ship ran aground during a sandstorm that caused low visibility, impacting the ship’s navigation. The vessel is owned by Taiwanese shipping firm, Evergreen Marine.

With over 2...



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The Technical Traders

Adaptive Fibonacci Price Modeling System Suggests Market Peak May Be Near

Courtesy of Technical Traders

Our Adaptive Fibonacci Price Modeling system is suggesting a moderate price peak may be already setting up in the NASDAQ while the Dow Jones, S&P500, and Transportation Index continue to rally beyond the projected Fibonacci Price Expansion Levels.  This indicates that capital may be shifting away from the already lofty Technology sector and into Basic Materials, Financials, Energy, Consumer Staples, Utilities, as well as other sectors.

This type of a structural market shift indicates a move away from speculation and towards Blue Chip returns. It suggests traders and investors are expecting the US consumer to come back strong (or at least hold up the market at...



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Lee's Free Thinking

Texas, Florida, Arizona, Georgia - The Branch COVIDIANS Are Still Burning Down the House

 

Texas, Florida, Arizona, Georgia – The Branch COVIDIANS Are Still Burning Down the House

Courtesy of Lee Adler, WallStreetExaminer 

The numbers of new cases in some of the hardest hit COVID19 states have started to plateau, or even decline, over the past few days. A few pundits have noted it and concluded that it was a hopeful sign. 

Is it real or is something else going on? Like a restriction in the numbers of tests, or simply the inability to test enough, or are some people simply giving up on getting tested? Because as we all know from our dear leader, the less testing, the less...



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Insider Scoop

Economic Data Scheduled For Friday

Courtesy of Benzinga

  • Data on nonfarm payrolls and unemployment rate for March will be released at 8:30 a.m. ET.
  • US Services Purchasing Managers' Index for March is scheduled for release at 9:45 a.m. ET.
  • The ISM's non-manufacturing index for March will be released at 10:00 a.m. ET.
  • The Baker Hughes North American rig count report for the latest week is scheduled for release at 1:00 p.m. ET.
...

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About Phil:

Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

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