Posts Tagged ‘S&P500’

Forecasting the S&P500 using the VIX

Forecasting the S&P500 using the VIX

Courtesy of Rohan at Data Diary 

McClellan Financial Publications had an interesting analysis last week (here) that looked at “Tracking the VIX response to Price Moves” in the S&P500. A key conclusion of the analysis was that divergences between the two indexes can signal turning points in the S&P500.

The concept seemed a good one – worthy of further investigation.

However, rather than asking how the VIX responds to changes in the S&P500, we turned it around and asked how does the VIX anticipate changes in the S&P500. Perhaps it’s the same question – as who knows which leads which. In any event, it seemed easier to understand a model that mapped the S&P500 as implied by movements in the VIX.

So following are the charts of the actual S&P500 and that implied by movements in the VIX starting from 1Oct09:

Our results are broadly similar.  Three key divergences between the VIX derived S&P500 and the actual price were identified that did indeed precede changes in price direction. At price extremes, there arose a disconnect between the behaviour of option traders and the broader equity market.

Most unhelpfully, the seeming catalyst for McClennan’s article – that we may currently be witnessing another divergence developing was not really confirmed. Though it’d be fair to conclude that the derived S&P500 chart has all the hallmarks of a market undergoing a topping process. We’ll watch this indicator with interest to see how things develop from here.

Epilogue:

Note that correlation changes over time and, not unsurprisingly, falls the longer the period under consideration.  So that the correlation is ~74% for the period 2004 to today, rising to 79% from Jan08, and is 85% for the last year. As with most time series analysis, the start date will have an impact on results.

In backtesting though the analysis retained its value. For example, there was a significant divergence between the VIX derived S&P500 and the actual S&P500 index around the March 2009 lows. The longer term data set is as follows- note the relative performance through 2007:

 


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CHART OF THE DAY: REVISITING THE MARCH LOWS?

If history repeats, keep this chart in mind.

CHART OF THE DAY: REVISITING THE MARCH LOWS?

Courtesy of The Pragmatic Capitalist

According to Bloomberg and Jim Reid, we’re likely to see much lower valuations (and stock prices) at some point in the next few years:

June 22 (Bloomberg) — U.S. and European stocks are destined to fall below March’s lows if bear-market history is any guide, according to Jim Reid, a strategist at Deutsche Bank AG.

Share prices tend to hit bottom “at extremely cheap levels” relative to earnings during so-called secular bear markets, Reid wrote five days ago in his first equity strategy report. Secular bears consist of multiple rallies and declines, with each slump producing lower valuations than the prior one.

The CHART OF THE DAY shows the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index’s price-earnings ratio since 1900, based on data compiled by Yale University’s Robert Shiller and cited in Reid’s report.

stocks666

Shiller calculated the P/E ratio at 6.6 in September 1982, just before the 1980s bull market started. The gauge sank to less than six in the depths of the Great Depression and at the beginning of the 1920s. This year, it has stayed above 13.

“History tells us that at some point in the next decade there will be much more stressed valuations than today and a once-in-a-generation buying opportunity,” wrote Reid, who previously focused on credit-market strategy.

Even “a large rally” later this year and into 2010 may not be enough to prevent this scenario from unfolding, he added. The S&P 500 has climbed as much as 40 percent from its March 9 lows. Reid’s European benchmark, a local-currency version of the MSCI Europe Index, has risen as much as 33 percent.


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Phil's Favorites

#DeleteFacebook is still feeding the beast - but there are ways to overcome surveillance capitalism

 

#DeleteFacebook is still feeding the beast – but there are ways to overcome surveillance capitalism

Not creepy at all. antb / Shutterstock.com

Courtesy of Yuwei Lin, University of Stirling

In the wake of the Cambridge Analytica scandal, many people are questioning whether or not to delete their Facebook accounts. It’s not the first time this has happened. I can’t recall how many times I have seen calls to boycott Facebook – on Facebook – ever since I started using the social media platform.

But many peopl...



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Zero Hedge

Facebook Moves 1.5 Billion Users' Data Out Of Europe To Circumvent New Privacy Law

Courtesy of Zero Hedge

This doesn't bode well for Facebook CEO Mark Zuckerberg and what remains of his tattered credibility.

After Zuck suggested (but stopping short of promising) during testimony before Congress last week that he would treat all Facebook users' data as if it fell under the European Union's new General Data Protection Regulation, Reuters and the ...



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Digital Currencies

Cryptos Continue To Surge As Tax-Day Passes

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Crytpocurrencies are continuing their post-tax-day gains with Bitcoin above $8500, Ethereum at almost $600, and Ripple up over 30% on the week.

With Bitcoin back above $8,500...

And Ethererum is back above $550 - testing towards $600...

Certainly for now, the anecdotal performa...



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Insider Scoop

Cowen Says The Big Sell-Off In Skechers Is A Buying Opportunity

Courtesy of Benzinga.

Related SKX 25 Stocks Moving In Friday's Mid-Day Session Mid-Day Market Update: Skechers USA Falls After Weak Q2 Guidance; Ericsson Shares Climb...

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Chart School

Short Opportunity II

Courtesy of Declan.

The first chance for a short play got burned but there is a second one on offer for the S&P.

The S&P tagged channel resistance and while today's reversal off resistance didn't amount to a big percentage loss it did register as a distribution day. There wasn't any significant technical change so if this short does evolve it will do so with risk measured on a move above 2,717.


The Nasdaq may match a 'bearish evening star' but if this is the case there has to be a significant move lower tomor...

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ValueWalk

Buffett At His Best

By csinvesting. Originally published at ValueWalk.

Bear with me as I share a bit of my history that helped me create SkyVu and the Battle Bears games. The University of Nebraska gave me my first job after college. I mostly pushed TV carts around, edited videos for professors or the occasional speaker event. One day, Warren Buffet came to campus to speak to the College of Business. I didn’t think much of this speech at the time but I saved it for some reason. 15 years later, as a founder of my own company, I watch and listen to this particular speech every year to remind myself of the fundamentals and values Mr. Buffett looks for. He’s addressing business students at his alma mater, so I think his style here is a bit more ‘close to home’ than in his other speeches. Hopefully many of you find great value in this video like I have. Sorry for the VHS...



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Kimble Charting Solutions

The Stock Bull Market Stops Here!

 

The Stock Bull Market Stops Here!

Courtesy of Kimble Charting

 

The definition of a bull market or bull trends widely vary. One of the more common criteria for bull markets is determined by the asset being above or below its 200 day moving average.

In my humble opinion, each index above remains in a bull trend, as triple support (200-day moving averages, 2-year rising support lines, and February lows) are still in play ...



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Members' Corner

Cambridge Analytica and the 2016 Election: What you need to know (updated)

 

"If you want to fundamentally reshape society, you first have to break it." ~ Christopher Wylie

[Interview: Cambridge Analytica whistleblower: 'We spent $1m harvesting millions of Facebook profiles' – video]

"You’ve probably heard by now that Cambridge Analytica, which is backed by the borderline-psychotic Mercer family and was formerly chaired by Steve Bannon, had a decisive role in manipulating voters on a one-by-one basis – using their own personal data to push them toward voting ...



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Biotech

How your brain is wired to just say 'yes' to opioids

Reminder: Pharmboy and Ilene are available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

How your brain is wired to just say ‘yes’ to opioids

A Philadelphia man, who struggles with opioid addiction, in 2017. AP Photo/Matt Rourke

Courtesy of Paul R. Sanberg, University of South Florida and Samantha Portis, University of South Florida

...

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Mapping The Market

The tricks propagandists use to beat science

Via Jean-Luc

How propagandist beat science – they did it for the tobacco industry and now it's in favor of the energy companies:

The tricks propagandists use to beat science

The original tobacco strategy involved several lines of attack. One of these was to fund research that supported the industry and then publish only the results that fit the required narrative. “For instance, in 1954 the TIRC distributed a pamphlet entitled ‘A Scientific Perspective on the Cigarette Controversy’ to nearly 200,000 doctors, journalists, and policy-makers, in which they emphasized favorable research and questioned results supporting the contrary view,” say Weatherall and co, who call this approach biased production.

A second approach promoted independent research that happened to support ...



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OpTrader

Swing trading portfolio - week of September 11th, 2017

Reminder: OpTrader is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

This post is for all our live virtual trade ideas and daily comments. Please click on "comments" below to follow our live discussion. All of our current  trades are listed in the spreadsheet below, with entry price (1/2 in and All in), and exit prices (1/3 out, 2/3 out, and All out).

We also indicate our stop, which is most of the time the "5 day moving average". All trades, unless indicated, are front-month ATM options. 

Please feel free to participate in the discussion and ask any questions you might have about this virtual portfolio, by clicking on the "comments" link right below.

To learn more about the swing trading virtual portfolio (strategy, performance, FAQ, etc.), please click here ...



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Promotions

NewsWare: Watch Today's Webinar!

 

We have a great guest at today's webinar!

Bill Olsen from NewsWare will be giving us a fun and lively demonstration of the advantages that real-time news provides. NewsWare is a market intelligence tool for news. In today's data driven markets, it is truly beneficial to have a tool that delivers access to the professional sources where you can obtain the facts in real time.

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Just click here at 1 pm est and join in!

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All About Trends

Mid-Day Update

Reminder: Harlan is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

Click here for the full report.




To learn more, sign up for David's free newsletter and receive the free report from All About Trends - "How To Outperform 90% Of Wall Street With Just $500 A Week." Tell David PSW sent you. - Ilene...

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Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

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