Posts Tagged ‘S&P500’

Forecasting the S&P500 using the VIX

Forecasting the S&P500 using the VIX

Courtesy of Rohan at Data Diary 

McClellan Financial Publications had an interesting analysis last week (here) that looked at “Tracking the VIX response to Price Moves” in the S&P500. A key conclusion of the analysis was that divergences between the two indexes can signal turning points in the S&P500.

The concept seemed a good one – worthy of further investigation.

However, rather than asking how the VIX responds to changes in the S&P500, we turned it around and asked how does the VIX anticipate changes in the S&P500. Perhaps it’s the same question – as who knows which leads which. In any event, it seemed easier to understand a model that mapped the S&P500 as implied by movements in the VIX.

So following are the charts of the actual S&P500 and that implied by movements in the VIX starting from 1Oct09:

Our results are broadly similar.  Three key divergences between the VIX derived S&P500 and the actual price were identified that did indeed precede changes in price direction. At price extremes, there arose a disconnect between the behaviour of option traders and the broader equity market.

Most unhelpfully, the seeming catalyst for McClennan’s article – that we may currently be witnessing another divergence developing was not really confirmed. Though it’d be fair to conclude that the derived S&P500 chart has all the hallmarks of a market undergoing a topping process. We’ll watch this indicator with interest to see how things develop from here.

Epilogue:

Note that correlation changes over time and, not unsurprisingly, falls the longer the period under consideration.  So that the correlation is ~74% for the period 2004 to today, rising to 79% from Jan08, and is 85% for the last year. As with most time series analysis, the start date will have an impact on results.

In backtesting though the analysis retained its value. For example, there was a significant divergence between the VIX derived S&P500 and the actual S&P500 index around the March 2009 lows. The longer term data set is as follows- note the relative performance through 2007:

 


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CHART OF THE DAY: REVISITING THE MARCH LOWS?

If history repeats, keep this chart in mind.

CHART OF THE DAY: REVISITING THE MARCH LOWS?

Courtesy of The Pragmatic Capitalist

According to Bloomberg and Jim Reid, we’re likely to see much lower valuations (and stock prices) at some point in the next few years:

June 22 (Bloomberg) — U.S. and European stocks are destined to fall below March’s lows if bear-market history is any guide, according to Jim Reid, a strategist at Deutsche Bank AG.

Share prices tend to hit bottom “at extremely cheap levels” relative to earnings during so-called secular bear markets, Reid wrote five days ago in his first equity strategy report. Secular bears consist of multiple rallies and declines, with each slump producing lower valuations than the prior one.

The CHART OF THE DAY shows the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index’s price-earnings ratio since 1900, based on data compiled by Yale University’s Robert Shiller and cited in Reid’s report.

stocks666

Shiller calculated the P/E ratio at 6.6 in September 1982, just before the 1980s bull market started. The gauge sank to less than six in the depths of the Great Depression and at the beginning of the 1920s. This year, it has stayed above 13.

“History tells us that at some point in the next decade there will be much more stressed valuations than today and a once-in-a-generation buying opportunity,” wrote Reid, who previously focused on credit-market strategy.

Even “a large rally” later this year and into 2010 may not be enough to prevent this scenario from unfolding, he added. The S&P 500 has climbed as much as 40 percent from its March 9 lows. Reid’s European benchmark, a local-currency version of the MSCI Europe Index, has risen as much as 33 percent.


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Phil's Favorites

More than 1,000 cryptocurrencies have already failed - here's what will affect successes in future

 

More than 1,000 cryptocurrencies have already failed – here's what will affect successes in future

Gaining currency? Wit Olszewski

Courtesy of Gavin Brown, Manchester Metropolitan University and Richard Whittle, Manchester Metropolitan University

Many cryptocurrencies have been launched in the past few yea...



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Kimble Charting Solutions

Junk Bonds About To Send Stocks A Bearish Message?

Courtesy of Chris Kimble

Are junk bonds about to send stocks an important message? It looks like it from this chart!

Junk Bond ETF (JNK) has created a series of lower highs and lower lows over the past couple of years, inside of falling channel (1). When it broke support in early 2018 at (2), stocks struggled to make much upward progress for the next few months.

The rally off support last year saw JNK hit falling resistance a few months ago and some softness has set in. The small decline of late has it testing a series of higher lows at (3).

What JNK does at (3), looks to sen...



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Zero Hedge

Futures Spike To Session High On Report US May Delay Dec 15 Tariff Even If No Deal

Courtesy of ZeroHedge View original post here.

After sliding below 3,100 amid trade deal pessimism as recently as 9pm ET, futures have recovered all losses since the Reuters report that a trade deal may be delayed into 2020 after a report from Hong Kong's SCMP, which reported that while "hopes remain a watered-down deal can be reached before new US tariffs go into effect on December 15", but even if the deal proves elusive, "sources say it ...



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Insider Scoop

PayPal Will Buy Honey Science For $4B

Courtesy of Benzinga

PayPal Holdings Inc. (NASDAQ: PYPL) is acquiring Honey Science Corp for $4 billion.

Honey Science Corp was founded in 2012 and is headquartered in Los Angeles. Honey helps people automatically find online coupons and discounts while ...



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Lee's Free Thinking

NY Department of Welfare Announces Increased Subsidies for Primary Dealers, Thank God!

 

NY Department of Welfare Announces Increased Subsidies for Primary Dealers, Thank God!

Courtesy of , Wall Street Examiner

Here’s today’s press release (11/14/19) from the NY Fed verbatim. They’ve announced that they will be making special holiday welfare payments to the Primary Dealers this Christmas season. I have highlighted the relevant text.

The Open Market Trading Desk (the Desk) at the Federal Reserve Bank of New York has released the schedule of repurchase agreement (repo)...



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The Technical Traders

VIX Warns Of Imminent Market Correction

Courtesy of Technical Traders

The VIX is warning that a market peak may be setting up in the global markets and that investors should be cautious of the extremely low price in the VIX. These extremely low prices in the VIX are typically followed by some type of increased volatility in the markets.

The US Federal Reserve continues to push an easy money policy and has recently begun acquiring more dept allowing a deeper move towards a Quantitative Easing stance. This move, along with investor confidence in the US markets, has prompted early warning signs that the market has reached near extreme levels/peaks. 

Vix Value Drops Before Monthly Expiration

When the VIX falls to levels below 12~13, this typically v...



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Biotech

Why telling people with diabetes to use Walmart insulin can be dangerous advice

Reminder: We are available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

Why telling people with diabetes to use Walmart insulin can be dangerous advice

A vial of insulin. Prices for the drug, crucial for those with diabetes, have soared in recent years. Oleksandr Nagaiets/Shutterstock.com

Courtesy of Jeffrey Bennett, Vanderbilt University

About 7.4 million people ...



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Chart School

Dow Jones cycle update and are we there yet?

Courtesy of Read the Ticker

Today the Dow and the SP500 are making new all time highs. However all long and strong bull markets end on a new all time high. Today no one knows how many new all time highs are to go, maybe 1 or 100+ more to go, who knows! So are we there yet?

readtheticker.com combine market tools from Richard Wyckoff, Jim Hurst and William Gann to understand and forecast price action. In concept terms (in order), demand and supply, market cycles, and time to price analysis. 

Cycle are excellent to understand the wider picture, after all markets do not move in a straight line and bear markets do follow bull markets. 



CHART 1: The Dow Jones Industrial average with the 900 period cycle.

A) Red Cycle:...

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Digital Currencies

Is Bitcoin a Macro Asset?

 

Is Bitcoin a Macro Asset?

Courtesy of 

As part of Coindesk’s popup podcast series centered around today’s Invest conference, I answered a few questions for Nolan Bauerly about Bitcoin from a wealth management perspective. I decided in December of 2017 that investing directly into crypto currencies was unnecessary and not a good use of a portfolio’s allocation slots. I remain in this posture today but I am openminded about how this may change in the future.

You can listen to this short exchange below:

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Mapping The Market

How IPOs Are Priced

Via Jean Luc 

Funny but probably true:

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Members' Corner

Despacito - How to Make Money the Old-Fashioned Way - SLOWLY!

Are you ready to retire?  

For most people, the purpose of investing is to build up enough wealth to allow you to retire.  In general, that's usually enough money to reliably generate a year's worth of your average income, each year into your retirement so that that, plus you Social Security, should be enough to pay your bills without having to draw down on your principle.

Unfortunately, as the last decade has shown us, we can't count on bonds to pay us more than 3% and the average return from the stock market over the past 20 years has been erratic - to say the least - with 4 negative years (2000, 2001, 2002 and 2008) and 14 positives, though mostly in the 10% range on the positives.  A string of losses like we had from 2000-02 could easily wipe out a decades worth of gains.

Still, the stock market has been better over the last 10 (7%) an...



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Promotions

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In My Top Strategies for 2017, Phil's chapter is Secret Santa’s Inflation Hedges for 2017.

This chapter isn’t about risk or leverage. Phil present a few smart, practical ideas you can use as a hedge against inflation as well as hedging strategies designed to assist you in staying ahead of the markets.

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Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

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