Posts Tagged ‘STI’

Testy Tuesday – How Many Times Will You Fall for the Same Thing?

Isn't this exciting!

The pre-markets are up 1% after a long weekend.  That hasn't happened since – two weeks ago!  Of course last Tuesday, we were jammed up as well and the Tuesday after Christmas, we were jammed up as well but THIS TIME – we're REALLY feeling it, right?  

The funniest thing is the way they have dozens of idiots saying all sorts of ridiculous things on CNBC and not one of them mentions even the vaguest hint of deja vu in what has been the most consistent pattern of late 2011, early 2012.

On this Dollar chart from Scott Pluschau, you can see the dives that are occasionally taken to goose the markets and we have another one this morning with the Dollar down 1%, making the 1% pop in the futures slightly less impressive when taken in context.  

This time may be different because, according to Friday's Legacy Commitments of Traders Report released by the CTFC, Commercial Traders are now net short on the Dollar to the tune of 59,023 to just 6,061 longs – about a 10:1 ratio that is EXTREME to say the least.  Non-Reportable, Non-Commercial Traders (ie. Speculators), on the other hand, are almost 10:1 the other way with 9,765 long contracts and just 1,390 shorts.  Reportable Non-Commercial Traders (Hedge Funds) fill out the rest of the longs with 52,644 long contracts against just 8,057 shorts.  

To some extent, hedge funds are also speculators and usually you would assume their bets are covered but that's kind of hard to see with a 7:1 long/short ratio.  Keep in mind that Commercial Traders are institutions with business reasons to hedge – they are not going to be flip-flopping their positions so they will NOT be buying Dollars just because they get cheaper.  So, if it all hits the fan and the Funds shift to short – we could get quite a tidal-wave of Dollar selling.

That's an odd sort of positions for the speculating class to be taking (super-long on the Dollar) considering the possibility of a highly dilutive quantitative event (QE3) in the very near future.   This is why we can't be gung-ho bearish – tempting though it may be and this is why every little rumor of Europe being "fixed" sends the Dollar flying down – there are no buyers – only nervous long Dollar holders.  

As you…
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Fully “Fixed” Friday – Extend and Pretend Edition

SPY 5 MINUTEAll fixed!

Greece is getting another $229Bn at 3.5% with about 30 years to pay it from the EU (ie. Germany and France) and private bond-holders will share about 1/3 of the pain by "voluntarily" renegotiating their own notes.  Sounds like a really great offer, right?  BUT WAIT, THERE’S MORE!  Another $630Bn of already promised emergency aid has now been places into a very slushy fund that will now allow the EU to throw money at any nation that so much as sneezes – WHETHER OR NOT THEY ASK FOR ASSISTANCE.  This will allow them to play economic Whack-A-Mole, putting out all the little Euro-zone fires until that money runs out (about 6 months at the EU’s current burn rate).

All this fantastic news from Europe has sent the Dollar down to test the 74 line and that was down from 75.37 just ahead of yesterday’s open and that’s a 1.8% drop so we would expect our indexes to go up at least 1.8% – BUT – none of them did.  In fact, the Nasdaq only gained 0.72% and the Russell was up 1.07% and the Dow was up 1.21% and the S&P was up 1.35%.   The NYSE, which had been our perennial laggard, did the best yesterday – gaining a close, but still no cigar 1.57%.  

Will we make it up today or is this an indication that things may not be quite so good as they seem?  After the close yesterday, I did a news round-up for our Members and there is still plenty to worry about and we took a stab at some SPY Weekly (today) $135 puts at .79 for our aggressive $25K Virtual Portfolio on the off-chance they "fix" the US debt ceiling and accidentally make the Dollar strong again.  At the moment, we are still playing our short lines in the futures, where we’ve been scalping nickels and dimes since my 3:23 am Alert to Members (if you are not a Member, you can sign up here), where I said:  

I like shorting the Futures here:  S&P (/ES) at 1,346, Nas (/NQ) 2,415, Dow (/YM) 12,720 and Rut (/TF) 842.6 – as long as 74.20 hold on the Dollar, we should get a bit of a sell off so these are levels to look for as the Dollar heads


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Options Strategists Take the Wheel at Ford Motor Co.

 Today’s tickers: F, NKE, TSRA, PCX, STI, CSCO & SNDK

F - Ford Motor Co. – A couple of large-volume spreads initiated in longer-dated call and put options on the automaker caught our eye this afternoon. Shares in Ford Motor Company increased 0.90% this afternoon to stand at $17.00 in the final minutes of the trading day. It looks like one bullish player employed the use of a debit call spread in the April 2011 contract while a more cautious investor utilized a ratio put spread expiring in June of 2011. The options optimist picked up 10,000 calls at the April 2011 $17 strike for a premium of $1.25 each, and sold the same number of calls at the higher April 2011 $20 strike at a premium of $0.29 apiece, in order to position for continued bullish movement in the price of the car manufacturer’s shares. The trader paid a net premium of $0.96 per contract for the spread, and is positioned to make money should Ford’s shares rally another 5.6% over the current price of $17.00 to exceed the effective breakeven point at $17.96 by expiration day in April. Maximum potential profits of $2.04 per contract are available to the call-spreader if Ford’s shares jump 17.6% to first surpass the current 52-week high of $17.42 on the stock, and ultimately trade above $20.00 ahead of expiration. Further along in the June 2011 contract, another strategist dabbled in put options, perhaps as a way to hedge a long position in the underlying shares through the first half of 2011, or alternatively to bet on a pullback in Ford’s shares. It looks like the investor picked up 12,500 puts at the June $17 strike at a premium of $1.63 each, and sold 25,000 puts at the lower June 2011 $14 strike for a premium of $0.54 a-pop. The trader paid a net $0.55 per contract for the ratio spread and starts making money if Ford’s shares slip beneath the effective breakeven price of $16.45 ahead of June expiration. The investor may walk away with maximum potential profits of $2.45 per contract in the event that the automaker’s shares plunge 17.6% to settle at $14.00 at expiration day. Selling twice…
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Bulls Find Lululemon Call Options Irresistible as Shares Soar

Today’s tickers: LULU, IRM, GAP, SNDK, STI & DFS

LULU - Lululemon Athletica, Inc. – Shares of the yoga clothing and accessories maker stretched and lengthened up to new all-time highs yet again today, attracting bullish options players more than willing to flex their call-buying muscles in the December and January 2011 contracts. LULU’s shares jumped more than 8.95% to secure an intraday- and new all-time high of $69.25 in the final thirty minutes of the trading week. The Canadian company’s shares have been unstoppable, rallying an incredible 167.5% to today’s high from a 52-week low of $25.75 on February 5, 2010. Shares are up 1,490.8% since March 6, 2009, when the stock touched down at an all time low of $4.33 a share at around the same time the S&P 500 Index hit rock-bottom in the most recent economic recession. Investors unwilling to stand in the way of such a driving force picked up call options on Lululemon to position for additional share price gains going forward. Traders purchased some 1,100 in-the-money calls at the December $65 strike for an average premium of $2.67 each. Call buyers at this strike profit if LULU’s shares exceed the average breakeven price of $67.67 through December expiration. Other bullish players sold roughly 1,650 puts at the December $65 strike to pocket premium of $1.08 per contract. Put sellers keep the full premium received on the transaction as long as shares trade above $65.00 through expiration in one week. Investors short the puts are happy to have shares of the underlying stock put to them at an average price of $63.92 a share in the event that the puts land in-the-money at expiration. Bullish players skipped to the January 2011 contract to purchase out-of-the-money calls, as well. Investors bought more than 1,000 January 2011 $70 strike calls for an average premium of $2.21 each. Uber-bullish players picked up another 2,000 calls at the higher January 2011 $75 strike at an average premium of $1.19 a-pop. Call…
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Bullish Player Acts on Gymboree Corp. Speculation with Ratio Call Spread

 Today’s tickers: GYMB, EQIX, JPM, SLV, STI, MBI, EEM, SNP & GDX

GYMB - Gymboree Corp. – One options player populating the retailer of children’s clothing and accessories waited until the twilight of the final trading day of the week to initiate a bullish stance on the stock. Gymboree’s shares surged as much as 21.425% at the start of the session to touch an intraday high of $50.44 on speculation the firm may put itself up for sale. The rumors drove implied volatility on Gymboree up 20.10% to 48.52% this morning along with the price of the underlying shares and spurred demand for options. Shares as well as volatility cooled somewhat by late afternoon, with shares up 16.5% at $48.40 and volatility higher by 13.5% to 45.85%, as of 3:00 pm ET. The patient bullish player looked to the February 2011 contract to establish a ratio call spread, purchasing 1,050 calls at the Feb. 2011 $48 strike at a premium of $4.80 each, and selling 2,100 calls at the higher Feb. 2011 $55 strike for a premium of $1.85 a-pop. Net premium paid to initiate the spread reduces down to $1.10 per contract. Thus, the trader is poised to profit should GYMB’s shares rally 1.45% over the current price of $48.40 to surpass the effective breakeven price of $49.10 by February expiration day. Maximum potential profits of $5.90 per contract are available to the ratio-spreader if the retailer’s shares surge 13.6% to settle at $55.00 at expiration. The greater proportion of sold calls expose the trader to losses should Gymboree’s shares explode higher to exceed the effective upper breakeven price of $60.90 ahead of expiration day in February. Analysts at Susquehanna raised their share price target on the stock to $60.00 from $48.00 after the Wall Street Journal’s website said bankers were looking into the possibility that Gymboree could be sold to private equity.

EQIX - Equinix, Inc. – The provider of global data center services appeared on our ‘hot by options volume’ market scanner in…
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DARK HORSE HEDGE – Shorting Suntrust & BooKS

DARK HORSE HEDGE – Shorting Suntrust & BooKS

By Scott Brown at Sabrient & Ilene at Phil’s Stock World

The markets appeared to like the calendar change from August to September today as all three major indexes close with +2.5% gains.  The S&P 500 closed the day at 1080, almost exactly on the 50 day MA.  This provides a good opportunity for DHH to replace a couple of SHORT positions that were closed to take profits while the market battled the support line at 1040. 

We are going to go another round with Suntrust Bank (STI) which already provided us with a +11.2% profit the first time around.  STI closed up 5% today at $23.65, earning it a spot on the SHORT list again.  Joining STI is bricks and mortar book seller, Barnes & Noble, Inc. (BKS), which closed today at $15.63, up +3.24%, after reporting a wider loss in the second quarter.  We are not sure what there is to like about widening losses. Ranking at #9 on the bottom of the Sabrient Outlook rankings provides plenty of reason to recommend adding BKS as a SHORT.

SELL SHORT STI – Again – Thursday, September 2, 2010 at the open. 

SELL SHORT BKS – Thursday, September 2, 2010 at the open.

These additions to the DHH virtual portfolio establish the tilt SHORT called for when the S&P 500 trades below both the 50 and 200 day moving averages.  

Screen shot 2010-09-01 at 9.06.38 PM

Chart by FreeStockCharts.com


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Dark Horse Hedge – Don’t let the sun (profits) go down

DARK HORSE HEDGE – Don’t let the sun (profits) go down

By Scott at Sabrient and Ilene at Phil’s Stock World

3cayocostasunset0400 - Sunset on the Gulf of Mexico - Cayo Costa State Park, Florida.

Recovery in danger as firms, homebuyers cut back – AP 

Groundhog with shadow

Not exactly the kind of headline that anyone wants to wake up to, but if you simply change a few words, it is as if we have slipped into the movie Groundhog Day. Each day’s gloomy headline is much like the day before’s, with a few words changed. Fortunately, DHH began with the premise that how news is going to be headlined and short-term market moves have proven over time to be nearly impossible to predict with any consistency. 

So we seek to have long positions that are the best of the best, leveraged against short positions that are the worst of the worst.  We combine the ability to reduce beta, or market correlation, with two alpha (return) improving measures.  Our first measure is to tilt the balance of the Long/Short portfolio based on market trend, and the second is to use options for yield enhancement.

We are currently in the middle of a 5th consecutive down day for the S&P 500 and we believe in taking profits off the table when the risk/reward premise changes.  DHH recommended a short position in SunTrust Banks, Inc. on July 13, 2010 at $25.54 and following the companies $750 Million tender offer of debt on Monday, we believe it is time to cover our STI short position at these prices.  We have earned a 11.9% profit in just over a month, and so it is time to let the sun go down alone if its trend continues, but not to let our profits go down. 

BUY TO COVER SunTrust Bank, Inc. (STI) at the market, Wednesday, August 25, 2010

 

Chart from Finviz.

So what kind of positions do we want to add in this market?  One that I like and am recommending is VEECO Instruments Inc. (VECO) using Phil Davis’s buy/write strategy.  VECO has a strong buy rating from Sabrient, with excellent scores for growth and value.

Excerpt from Sabrient’s Ratings Report for VECO:  

Veeco Instruments Inc., together with its subsidiaries, designs, manufactures, and markets solutions for customers in the high brightness light emitting diode (HB LED), solar, data storage, scientific research, semiconductor, and industrial


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DARK HORSE HEDGE

DARK HORSE HEDGE Weekend Catch-Up 

By Scott at Sabrient and Ilene at Phil’s Stock World

Hedging into the week of August 2nd, the Dark Horse Hedge (DHH) is in a BALANCED tilt (long to short ratio) with 8 LONG and 8 SHORT positions. We used Phil’s BUY/WRITE strategy to enter two of our LONG positions (IM and GCI) at a 10-20% discount to the market.  As you can see from the chart, the SPX wandered between the 50 and 200 day moving averages (MAs) all week before whimpering towards the bottom of the channel Thursday and Friday. The 12-26-9 MACD which is the faster of the 2 technical direction signals we follow has flat-lined at just above +6 and the slower RSI 14-day still remains just below 50.

Without some impressive economic reports coming this week or much better than expected earnings reports, we believe the market will drift down towards and test the 50 day MA. If a bullish tone sets back in, it is doubtful that it could easily push through the 200 day MA.  Resistance points as well as the 50 and 200 day MAs all which fit into a fairly narrow trading channel.

[chart from FreeStockCharts.com]

We are happy with the positions we put on in DHH’s first 30 days of existence and we look forward to capturing more profit as the companies report earnings this week.  We will continue to take profits "after the news" and rotate into newer, fresher positions while keeping an eye on the overall market to adjust our tilt for maximum Alpha*, which is why we all write and read DHH. 

Summary of DHH positions in the virtual portfolio

LONG: XRTX, WDC, GCI, IM, DLX, GME, FRZ, and TEO  

SHORT: AIV, STI, HUSA, USG, CLDA, TEX, RAIL, and JOE 
 
Read previous DHH actions and follow our latest portfolio moves here. > 
 
*We are aiming to be hedged in our market exposure by being long stocks with the greatest potential to rise and short stocks with the greatest potential to decline.  To identify these winner and loser stocks, we use Sabrient’s Value Change Up (VCU) assessment system. Sabrient’s VCU system is a multi-factor quantitative ranking system that scores over 2,000 stocks and allows us to enter LONG positions in the best ranking stocks and SHORT positions in worst ranking


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DARK HORSE HEDGE UPDATE

DARK HORSE HEDGE UPDATE 

By Scott at Sabrient and Ilene of PSW

Black and white tilted view of horse grazing in meadow with wooden fence in foreground

You can run, you can run, tell my friend-boy, Willie Brown.
You can run, tell my friend-boy, Willie Brown.
Lord, that I’m standin’ at the crossroad, babe, I believe I’m sinking down.

Crossroads, Robert Johnson

Heading into Friday July 23, 2010 the market is again at a technical crossroad with the SPX closing Thursday at 1093.7, above the 50-day Moving Average of 1085.5. The MACD 12-26-9 remains close but still under the (zero) signal line at -1.13, with the RSI 14-day at 45.26.  There is lateral resistance at the 1096 level from the close last Thursday showing how the market has traveled a long way the past week to get nowhere.

Amazon.com Inc. (AMZN) fell short of analysts’ forecasts after Thursday’s close and was down 14% in after-hours trading, suggesting that the market may follow the pattern it has been in most of the summer.

Up 200, down 200, up 200, down 200 - wash out your savings, rinse and repeat!  What a total sham of a market we have these days with machines running us up and down on virtually no news at all.  Yesterday they would have you believe that Ben Bernanke caused a sell-off. How ridiculous is that?  He didn’t say one thing that he didn’t already say in the Fed Minutes that were released on the 14th, which were the notes from the meeting of June 23rd so for analysts to get on TV and say “the markets were concerned by the Chairman’s comments” is beyond stupid – it’s criminal negligence.  Phil’s Thrill-Ride Thursday.


[chart from freestockchart.com]

Thursday’s economic releases were less than encouraging with a jump in the number of people seeking unemployment benefits. Sales of previously owned homes fell, but the market shrugged it off as seasonal and rallied on the earnings of Caterpillar Inc., UPS Inc., and others that beat estimates. However, the…
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DARK HORSE HEDGE UPDATE

DARK HORSE HEDGE UPDATE 

Black and white tilted view of horse grazing in meadow with wooden fence in foreground

By Scott at Sabrient and Ilene of PSW

You can run, you can run, tell my friend-boy, Willie Brown.
You can run, tell my friend-boy, Willie Brown.
Lord, that I’m standin’ at the crossroad, babe,
I believe I’m sinking down.

- Crossroads, Robert Johnson

Heading into Friday July 23, 2010 the market is again at a technical crossroad with the SPX closing Thursday at 1093.7, above the 50-day Moving Average of 1085.5. The MACD 12-26-9 remains close but still under the (zero) signal line at -1.13, with the RSI 14-day at 45.26.  There is lateral resistance at the 1096 level from the close last Thursday showing how the market has traveled a long way the past week to get nowhere.

Amazon.com Inc. (AMZN) fell short of analysts’ forecasts after Thursday’s close and was down 14% in after-hours trading, suggesting that the market may follow the pattern it has been in most of the summer.

Up 200, down 200, up 200, down 200 - wash out your savings, rinse and repeat!  What a total sham of a market we have these days with machines running us up and down on virtually no news at all.  Yesterday they would have you believe that Ben Bernanke caused a sell-off. How ridiculous is that?  He didn’t say one thing that he didn’t already say in the Fed Minutes that were released on the 14th, which were the notes from the meeting of June 23rd so for analysts to get on TV and say “the markets were concerned by the Chairman’s comments” is beyond stupid – it’s criminal negligence.  Phil’s Thrill-Ride Thursday.


[chart from freestockchart.com]

Thursday’s economic releases were less than encouraging with a jump in the number of people seeking unemployment benefits. Sales of previously owned homes fell, but the market shrugged it off as seasonal and rallied on the earnings of Caterpillar Inc., UPS Inc., and others that beat estimates. However, the SPX hasn’t been able to break through resistance at 1096 and essentially has gone nowhere since last Thursday.…
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Insider Scoop

Amazon Warehouse Workers Plan Monday Walkout To Protest Lack Of Coronavirus Protection

Courtesy of Benzinga

Amazon.com Inc.'s (NASDAQ: AMZN) workers at the company's Staten Island warehouse are planning a mass walkout on Monday to protest against what they call a lack of protection provided during the novel coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic.

What Happened

Anywhere between 50 to 200 workers are expected to participate in the walkout, Christian Smalls, as assistant manager at the New York...



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Phil's Favorites

10 ways to spot online misinformation

 

10 ways to spot online misinformation

When you share information online, do it responsibly. Sitthiphong/Getty Images

Courtesy of H. Colleen Sinclair, Mississippi State University

Propagandists are already working to sow disinformation and social discord in the run-up to the November elections.

Many of their efforts have focused on social media, where people’s limited attention spans push them to ...



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Members' Corner

10 ways to spot online misinformation

 

10 ways to spot online misinformation

When you share information online, do it responsibly. Sitthiphong/Getty Images

Courtesy of H. Colleen Sinclair, Mississippi State University

Propagandists are already working to sow disinformation and social discord in the run-up to the November elections.

Many of their efforts have focused on social media, where people’s limited attention spans push them to ...



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Zero Hedge

"The Scope For Pain Is Immense" - China's Consumer Default Tsunami Has Started

Courtesy of ZeroHedge View original post here.

One month ago we reported that "China Faces Financial Armageddon With 85% Of Businesses Set To Run Out Of Cash In 3 Months", in which we explained that while China's giant state-owned SOEs will likely have enough of a liquidity lifeblood to last them for 2-3 quarters, it is the country's small businesses that are facing a head on collision with an iceberg, because ...



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Biotech/COVID-19

The world before this coronavirus and after cannot be the same

 

The world before this coronavirus and after cannot be the same

Gettyimages

Courtesy of Ian Goldin, University of Oxford and Robert Muggah, Pontifical Catholic University of Rio de Janeiro (PUC-Rio)

With COVID-19 infections now evident in 176 countries, the pandemic is the most significant threat to humanity since the second world war. Then, as now, confidence in international cooperation and institutions plumbed new lows.

While the on...



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Digital Currencies

While coronavirus rages, bitcoin has made a leap towards the mainstream

 

While coronavirus rages, bitcoin has made a leap towards the mainstream

Get used to it. Anastasiia Bakai

Courtesy of Iwa Salami, University of East London

Anyone holding bitcoin would have watched the market with alarm in recent weeks. The virtual currency, whose price other cryptocurrencies like ethereum and litecoin largely follow, plummeted from more than US$10,000 (£8,206) in mid-February to briefly below US$4,000 on March 13. Despite recovering to the mid-US$6,000s at the time of writin...



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The Technical Traders

These Index Charts Will Calm You Down

Courtesy of Technical Traders

I put together this video that will calm you down, because knowing where are within the stock market cycles, and the economy makes all the difference.

This is the worst time to be starting a business that’s for sure. I have talked about this is past videos and events I attended that bear markets are fantastic opportunities if you can retain your capital until late in the bear market cycle. If you can do this, you will find countless opportunities to invest money. From buying businesses, franchises, real estate, equipment, and stocks at a considerable discount that would make today’s prices look ridiculous (which they are).

Take a quick watch of this video because it shows you ...



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Kimble Charting Solutions

Broadest Of All Stock Indices Testing Critical Support, Says Joe Friday!

Courtesy of Chris Kimble

One of the broadest indices in the states remains in a long-term bullish trend, where a critical support test is in play.

The chart looks at the Wilshire 5000 on a monthly basis over the past 35-years.

The index has spent the majority of the past three decades inside of rising channel (1). It hit the top of this multi-decade channel to start off the year, where it created a monthly bearish reversal pattern.

Weakness the past 2-months has the index testing rising support and the December 2018 lows at (2).

Joe...



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Chart School

Cycle Trading - Funny when it comes due

Courtesy of Read the Ticker

Non believers of cycles become fast believers when the heat of the moment is upon them.

Just has we have birthdays, so does the market, regular cycles of time and price. The market news of the cycle turn may change each time, but the time is regular. Markets are not a random walk.


Success comes from strategy and the execution of a plan.















Changes in the world is the source of all market moves, to catch an...

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ValueWalk

Entrepreneurial activity and business ownership on the rise

By Jacob Wolinsky. Originally published at ValueWalk.

Indicating strong health of entrepreneurship, both entrepreneurial activity and established business ownership in the United States have trended upwards over the past 19 years, according to the 2019/2020 Global Entrepreneurship Monitor Global Report, released March 3rd in Miami at the GEM Annual Meeting.

Q4 2019 hedge fund letters, conferences and more

The Benefit Of Entrepreneurial Activity ...

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Promotions

Free, Live Webinar on Stocks, Options and Trading Strategies

TODAY's LIVE webinar on stocks, options and trading strategy is open to all!

Feb. 26, 1pm EST

Click HERE to join the PSW weekly webinar at 1 pm EST.

Phil will discuss positions, COVID-19, market volatility -- the selloff -- and more! 

This week, we also have a special presentation from Mike Anton of TradeExchange.com. It's a new service that we're excited to be a part of! 

Mike will show off the TradeExchange's new platform which you can try for free.  

...

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Lee's Free Thinking

Why Blaming the Repo Market is Like Blaming the Australian Bush Fires

 

Why Blaming the Repo Market is Like Blaming the Australian Bush Fires

Courtesy of  

The repo market problem isn’t the problem. It’s a sideshow, a diversion, and a joke. It’s a symptom of the problem.

Today, I got a note from Liquidity Trader subscriber David, a professional investor, and it got me to thinking. Here’s what David wrote:

Lee,

The ‘experts’ I hear from keep saying that once 300B more in reserves have ...



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Mapping The Market

How IPOs Are Priced

Via Jean Luc 

Funny but probably true:

...

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About Phil:

Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

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About Ilene:

Ilene is editor and affiliate program coordinator for PSW. Contact Ilene to learn about our affiliate and content sharing programs.