I have definitely learned to take smaller wins early and be happy with that. Lately, I've aimed for $250 profit per day. Doing that daily/weekly x 48 weeks (assuming I take some time off) works out to 60k per year. That's a lot of money!! $250 moves happen all the time if you just wait for them.
JeffDoc
Personally I admire and respect you disciplined approach to investing. My style is at the extreme side of aggressive and I have to learn how to be less that way. If I yell " Let it Ride" at my house, no one says a word so I can't use that to temper my behavior. Phil has done a pretty good job of knocking some of my potential moves and as a result, I have increased my portfolio value by almost 25% since late July.
DoubleD
Phil, I don't know if I told you lately but you da man! I'm doing so much better following your guidelines. It's like you actually know what you are talking about. 8-) I've tried a lot of services and none of them are as comprehensive or honest AND successful. I appreciate all youz other guys/gals input as well…learning tons as a relative newbie to this game.
Aclend
PSW – Price/Value; The value of PSW on a regular basis exceeds by far the price of the annual subscription. The edition of February 26 'Which Way Wednesday – Popping or Topping?', – priceless for the serious investor.
Winston
Phil has some great insight into the market. He's given me a different perspective on the market and I know I'm a better trader/investor because of it. I've been trading options since the late 80's and Phil is right. Unless you know what is going to happen (how can you, unless you have insider information), then do what the smart money does - be the house. Remember guys, we're allowed to sell options. If you're afraid to be short, then do a spread to limit your liability. When I think about the money I've made and lost on options, a good approximation is that I win 30% of the time when I do a straight buy; I win about 70% of the time when I do a spread; I win nearly 90% of the time when I sell naked.
Autolander
Way back did 20 of your suggested short BP Jan 11 26 P @ 4.3 now .85 — sold half. this am — paid for a years sub AGain!! thank you very much!
Ban2
Thank you Nantucket. It is hard to be a complete beginner in the market with this complicated, fast moving, and very advanced group. Phil is the Great One, but the membership is absolutely amazing! Had I known this ahead I would probably log in as "awe struck" everyday.
Coke
Started my membership in mid-Oct and have since then learned so much about options by reading the site's articles and postings, members' chats and suggested trades – as a bonus, the articles are entertaining as well! Phil's long-term investing strategy makes really good sense as I've seen its effect on my GLW positions. Phil – thanks for sharing your knowledge of the market! I've worked as risk analyst for the investment dept of a $19B insurance company, and the scope and depth of your daily commentaries blows away what I have seen and heard from the PMs and even the chief investment officer! Most of all, I will continue to be a member because you have your priorities right (from my POV) – it's not all about money and power.
Bai2r
I must add yet another paen to Phil's "cash and short" call, as my TZA shorts are past paying for Similac and Pampers and have now covered all doctors and Mt. Sinai hospital bills for young Charlotte, as TZA took the portfolio up 10%.
Zeroxzero
I am not a user of phil's site now, but was for a couple years. His advice and information is excellent. Perhaps even better, you get access to real-time trades of additional traders on his site (OptTrader, etc) and the other members who post what they are buying and selling. Overall, its a very valuable information tool. Expensive, but paid for itself many times over. I did not renew my membership because I switched jobs and did not have time to trade nearly as much.
XRTrader
I really would like to meet all of the posters here who seem like an intriguing bunch of intelligent, opinionated (without being obnoxious or condescending most of the time), and well spoken people. Not so easy to find in this age of instant gratification and me first attitudes. Usually this results in groups where misinformation is used to gain an advantage, or whatever it takes to beat the other guys. I love the one for all, all for one vibe here, sharing your best ideas and helping each other work together for a common goal, to be successful investors!
craigsa620
We are lucky to be in America and it is great to be part of the PSW tribe. Keeps me thinkin' and gatherin' the profits. ~ 42 % gain in my trading account year to date, which keeps me happy. Half to a third of the trading account is reserved in margin capacity that Is not committed. So, again thanks Phil and all of you other members.
Newthugger
Phil, Passed a milestone today since joining 2 months ago. 25% of my account is in buy/writes, bull call spreads and disaster hedges. A majority of the trades were taken directly from your ideas or someone else`s contributions. Some were daytrades that became spreads. That part of my account is up 30% as of today. I don`t worry about it, or mess with it much, did a few rolls etc. Rest of the account is there to day trade, cover the writes and take advantage of opportunities. Thanks to everyone who contributes here, what a sweet way to trade, so many opportunities.
Ben1Be
Being on this board is better than successfully completing the Times crossword. Phil's panoply of comments manage to excite, illuminate, frustrate, exasperate, confuse, enlighten, outrage, invigorate and stupefy (and that's par for the morning session only!). But goddammit, it's addictive, informative and when it all goes right extremely profitable.
Winston
Gel1…..I've been here 6 months, mostly watching and learning. Lots of smart people on the site and I've learned a lot from Phil and many others. //// Inflan - I have to trump your sentiments regarding the wisdom of the board. I have to thank Phil and the many contruibutors for a 80% profit for 2009. I have learned a lot and am still learning ( even occasionally about political issues - ha! )
Iflantheman & Gel1
WOW!!!!!!!!!!!! How will I ever do anything else in my life that will compare to the wild ride you get trading an ultra etf in the most volatile sector in the stock market the day before option expiration?
Matt1966
Phil/ et al- Thanks for the answers to my spread questions last night, as I really needed that little piece of knowledge to crystallize my understanding of spreads. Your help is much appreciated and I have been doing really well for the last couple of months with fewer and fewer missteps as I embrace the PSW ways and watching my portfolios grow.
Craigsa620
I can't believe it. After 2 Months of reading every post of every section on this site, the light bulb finaly went on. I was begining to think this was beyond me capacity to understand. Thanks Guys. Specifically Phil, Pharm, Cap, Matt. Im still Green as a leprechaun but I pulled the trigger on that SRS Vertical you laid down yesterday Phil. Very Clever. Now if I can just figure how to roll I migh make some money. Thanks for sharing, This community you have here is quite remarkable.
Zucko
Every time I read Mr. Davis' market analyses and reports about his super profitable trades I feel admiration mixed with envy for the overall brilliance of this man, intellectual and verbal, his extraordinary savvy in the exotic art of options and, last not least, his moral passion with which he writes, even if in passing, about the darker aspects of capitalism.
RussianBear
Great calls this week!
SNS1
Why were the analysts wrong? If I were a Japanese investor who purchased US stocks prior to November at Y80 yen to the dollar, with the US market up an average of 15% or more and upon selling the asset I covert dollars to Yen, also realizing an additional 25% gain (one dollar now converts to 100+ Yen rather than the 80 I used at time of purchase), I think I would be unloading US assets also. But analysts never do the math in their articles nor very rarely bring up or discuss the ramifications of currency fluctuations. I don't include Phil in this group as this is a valuable lesson I am learning from him.
Denlundy
I cannot believe the success I have had in the last 6 months because of what I have learned here! It has been truly life changing. It's like the old adage about teaching someone how to fish instead of just giving them a fish. Thank you Phil, I am forever grateful and hope I have helped someone else along the way.
Craigsa620
Hey Phil -- I want to thank you every chance I get for helping me to grow my previous portfolio to being profitable enough to pay off some debts my family had and left me with $1,000 left to use in the markets. You should know that your premium membership is amazing on many levels, You and your readers offer a ton of economic and statistical analysis that I was able to use in my clerical level job in finance. It's a shame that someone as talented and honest as you is not on television each night providing a true service to the investing public and not the clowns and hucksters that are talking up their books to dump on retail investors. Sorry for the long post. I had to say something to you that I never thought I would have the opportunity to. You helped put my family in an almost debt-free life through the stock and option plays that I made during my time as a customer of your service and that has made us very happy. You are a good man and I wish you and your family many years of joy and happiness. I wish I could do ads for you!
DaveJ
Phil - Your logic not only makes sense, but it made a lot of premium profit for me over the past 12 months. I have recovered much of the massive equity losses of last year. My Monday play is the sale of long term puts on FXI. Love the premium!
Gel1
Thank you so much for the good daily news in review Phil. I love your commentary! It is such a breath of fresh air in the smog cluttered news networks.
RJRoberts
Simply the best blogger with the greatest group of members a person could surround himself with on trading day. I've been trading for quite some time now and the insights & suggestions offered by Phil and the members keep me on a continuous learning cycle.
DDay
Just closed out my V put for 50% in 24 hours thanks Phil!
Humvee
Boring trading – Phil/ Thanks to PSW, my yearly covered-writes are on pace for 15%. Add the long puts and well over 20%… and I look at it once a day and never lose sleep over it. Actually doing better than my trading account at this point (Thanks, summer 2013) Anyway, the point is that anyone with enough money would be wise to do the 20% – 40% stuff and do trading as a hobby…
Arivera
Phil - DIA 107 Calls. As suggested I am taking the money and running to home depot for some shelter supplies! This is the grand finale of several successful trades from you through this roller-coster and as you have further suggested it is time for me to sit back and relax in cash. May even be able to talk my wife into the premium membership after these intelligent trades in a stupid market.
DOStrade
I have been a member off and on for years. Using these techniques I do consistently beat the S&P 500. Phil's Stock World has been the most important site in my financial life. It's impact on me over the past years has been huge. As have my tax bills!
Knightpilot
by ilene - July 5th, 2010 9:16 pm
Courtesy of The Economic Collapse Blog
The Standard & Poor’s 500 50-day moving average stands poised to cross beneath the 200-day moving average. To those in the financial industry, this is known as a "death cross", and it is a very powerful indicator that we could be entering a bearish period. So is this yet another sign that we are on the verge of a recession? Well, anyone who has spent much time trying to interpret financial charts will tell you how inexact that science can be. Financial markets can be wildly unpredictable, and there is always a tremendous amount of manipulation going on behind the scenes. However, when you add this impending death cross with all of the other signs that we could be entering a recession, there certainly seems to be reason for alarm. The truth is that financial markets across the globe are full of fear and panic right now. In fact, as noted in another article, the dominant force in world financial markets in 2010 is fear. When fear rules, markets become very volatile and they can fall very quickly. Anyone who has spent much time trying to squeeze profits out of world financial markets knows that they tend to fall much faster than they ever rise. So are we now approaching one of those times of panic when financial markets across the world fall at breathtaking speed?
Well, the truth is that nobody knows. Anyone who says that they can predict these things with 100 percent certainty is either a liar or they are unbelievably rich.
But certainly the mood in the financial markets is grim. If a death cross does happen on the S&P it is going to make things even more tense.
For those not familiar with investing terminology, Investopedia defines a "death cross" this way….
A crossover resulting from a security’s long-term moving average breaking above its short-term moving average or support level.
In this case, the death cross would be happening on the S&P 500, which is a weighted index of the prices of 500 large-cap common stocks actively traded in the United States. The S&P 500 is one of the most commonly used benchmarks for the overall U.S. stock market.
So how soon could we see a death cross on the S&P 500?
Well, some analysts believe that it could happen almost…
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by Chart School - April 22nd, 2010 9:15 pm
Courtesy of The Pragmatic Capitalist
A few weeks ago we joked that the SEC had banned all downticks. That might not sound so funny now as there have been almost zero downticks over the last two months. Stocks have rallied on 75% of all days and ever 0.5% dip has been aggressively bought into. This market is an unstoppable bear killing machine. Equities have reversed their full 1.5% losses from this morning as the “buy the dip” trade continues to dominate every minute of every day. The truly amazing rally just doesn’t quit:
******
As an aside, you might ask, who ISN’T buying?
Corporate insiders, that’s who. Look at these charts from Insider Cow:
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by Chart School - March 23rd, 2010 2:45 pm
Courtesy of The Pragmatic Capitalist
Lord help you if you’ve been short for the last 4 weeks. Over this time period, stocks have risen on 85% of the days and the market has felt entirely invincible. Small dips are quickly gobbled up by aggressive buyers. I would argue that this has been the most impressive portion of the entire 70% move from the lows in March 2009. Stocks have surged 8% (that’s a 96% annualized rate for those keeping track) in less than 4 weeks as the market has risen in 22 of the last 26 sessions. Impressive might just be an understatement.
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by Chart School - October 28th, 2009 4:24 pm
Mish thinks the top is either in or should be, if fundamentals matter anymore. He’s made a lot of good calls in the past. – Ilene
Courtesy of Mish
Professor David Waggoner posted the following chart yesterday on Minyanville that I think is worth noting.
click on chart for sharper image
Professor Waggoner commented "The next intermediate level pivot down is around 882. It is a 50% retrace of the entire move up from the low and is a possible pivot for an extension of the entire A-B-C pattern off the low. It is also a natural support level as shown on the chart.
These intermediate level targets are based on the interpretation that the move up from the March low is a corrective retrace of a 5 wave set down from October 2007.
I concur with Professor Waggoner’s analysis.
The important point in above chart is that the move up from the March low is likely a correction, not the start of a new bull market. That information alone is worth far more than any details as to how the market may decline from here. Many patterns are still in play.
Depending on the index, you can count these moves off the bottom as a simple A-B-C correction as shown, or as an A-B-C-D-E wedge. We’ll know which one was correct in hindsight, but both suggest stocks will eventually make new lows – either sooner (in 2010) or later. A multi-year top could be in. Fundamentally, it should be in.
In the short-term, if we have in fact seen the end of the rally, the SPX will likely decline to the 200 day moving average, currently at 916. By the time we get there, it could be in the neighborhood of the 38% retrace line near 933. If things go quickly, it could be down there by the end of the year.
This is not a recommendation to short; this is a notice that risk is tremendously high and a top could be (and in my opinion should be) in. The market may have other ideas.
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by ilene - October 1st, 2009 2:58 pm
Courtesy of The Pragmatic Capitalist
Some good thoughts here from David Rosenberg on the current state of the market:
It is really amazing to sift through the fund flow data because it is so apparent that it is the “pros” that are chasing this market higher. The private client is fully aware that two bubbles burst seven years apart as Wall Street product-pushers came up with back-to-back new paradigms — the first being the tech mania followed by a new era of housing and credit finance…
It is not lost on the individual investor that equities have generated no net return over the last 11 years and that we are very clearly in the middle of a classic secular bear market. What is amazing, and indeed, encouraging, is that the long-term resolve of the investor is not being overwhelmed by greed as Wall Street strategists push the theory of pricing the market on “mid-cycle” earnings and economists push the theory that data that come in “less negative” is actually bullish.
To be chasing the market after a 60% rally that is now priced for a V-shaped recovery is clearly not the strategy being deployed by the private investor, at the margin. So, what we see as evidence is the record $42.91 billion that flowed into U.S. bond funds in August, on top of the $34.7 billion intake in July. Year-to-date, bond funds have taken in a net $180 billion, about double the $92 billion during the comparable period in 2008.
It’s not as if people are selling equities — they are just watering down their already-high exposure in the stock market. Equity-based funds attracted $3.86 billion of new inflow in August, bringing the cumulative tally to $15 billion. So, it is very interesting to see where the “mountain of money”, “cash on the sidelines” and “dry powder” is going. Into fixed-income. For every dollar flowing into equity funds, twelve is flowing into bond funds.
To be sure, some will point to this as some sort of a bullish contrary data-point. Then again, maybe there is a secular demographic development that needs to be understood — a survey recently conducted by AARP (American Association of Retired Professionals) found that 49% of those between 45 and 64 years old are not confident that they have saved sufficiently for retirement. Fully 12% of this
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by Chart School - September 17th, 2009 7:41 pm
Click here for a FREE, 90-day trial subscription to our PSW Report!
Rob Hanna follows up on his previous article, "Never Have So Many Stocks Been So Stretched Above …," showing that the number of stocks trading at prices two standard deviations above their 200ma was at an all time high. – Ilene
Courtesy of Rob Hanna at Quantifiable Edges
With Wednesday’s big rally, we are now seeing even more extraordinary numbers. Not only is T2111 up to 58.51%, but T2112, which measures the % of stocks trade at least 2 standard deviation above their 40-DAY moving average, is also in record territory. It is showing that a remarkable 57.19% of stocks are now stretched far above their 40-ma’s.
The action in T2112 truly exemplifies the uniqueness of the rally since March. Below is a long-term look at the indicator. Note that from 1986 through 2008 the highest reading this indicator ever registered was 37.22% in November of 2004. That record has been blown away repeatedly over the last 6 months.
There simply is no comparison over the last 23 years to what we are seeing in this recent rally. There have now 5 distinct periods in the last 6 months where T2112 has rallied through the old high. And now we’re seeing the most extreme breadth numbers of all.
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by ilene - September 11th, 2009 11:52 am
Have you wondered, is it true, is the rally really due to tons of money lying around with nowhere else to go?
Courtesy of The Pragmatic Capitalist
Is the real economy rebounding or is this just a liquidity/stimulus driven rebound? David Rosenberg has an opinion:
IT’S ALL ABOUT LIQUIDITY, ROSENBERG!
This is what we are hearing. The fundamentals take a back seat because there is so much liquidity to be put to work, and it all must go into equities. This reminds us of all the liquidity talk during the bubble peak of late 2007. The reality is that the mountain of money is no higher or lower than it was when the market was plumbing the depths through 2008 — money market mutual funds back then were $3.5 trillion and guess what? Today they are $3.5 trillion. Go figure.
So you see, liquidity is a catch-all term when nobody can really explain why the market is going up. This rally is based on a lot of hope that we are going to see a V-shaped economic recovery in the U.S. The S&P 500 is priced for 4% real GDP growth. We don’t see it. Try 2%, which is what the investment-grade corporate bond market is priced for. If we get 4% GDP growth then the equity market is fully priced, but that sort of economic expansion would take Baa spreads of U.S. Treasuries down another 100bps to 200bps, if historical relationships were to hold. But if we see 2%, then at least you will clip your coupon in the fixed-income market. The S&P 500, which at one point would have licked its chops over such a possible outcome (back when it was priced for -2.5% growth last March), would now see 2% growth as a disappointment and would correct down towards 850, again, based on our models.
I would argue that it’s all about psychology really. As the global economy began to fall off a cliff last summer and fall investors began to worry. When we saw some of our most prominent financial institutions vulnerable investors panicked and sold everything. Now, we’re seeing the return of rational thinking and cooler heads. The government has certainly helped to steady the markets, but what has really returned to the market is some semblance of confidence. What the government needs to start worrying…
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by ilene - September 1st, 2009 10:17 pm
Courtesy of Jesse’s Café Américain
The observations herein regarding the nature of this stock market rally are quite in parallel with our own.
Buying the dollar to play the debt deflation trade may also be a good one in the short run, especially if leveraged foreign punters have to quickly raise cash to cover bad bets made in the US markets.
However we would have to add that this scenario assumes no black swans with regards to the heavy overhang of US dollars being held by overseas central banks.
If we were in such a position, we would be selling the rallies, given the huge amount dollars on the books.
Bloomberg
Goldman Sachs Wrong on Economic Recovery, Macro Hedge Funds Say
By Cristina Alesci
Sept. 1 (Bloomberg) — Paul Tudor Jones, the billionaire hedge-fund manager who outperformed peers last year, is wagering that Goldman Sachs Group Inc. and Morgan Stanley got it wrong in declaring the start of an economic recovery.
Jones’s Tudor Investment Corp., Clarium Capital Management LLC and Horseman Capital Management Ltd. are taking a bearish stand as U.S. stock and bond prices rise, saying that record government spending may be forestalling another slowdown and market selloff. The firms oversee a combined $15 billion in so- called macro funds, which seek to profit from economic trends by trading stocks, bonds, currencies and commodities.
“If we have a recovery at all, it isn’t sustainable,” Kevin Harrington, managing director at Clarium, said in an interview at the firm’s New York offices. “This is more likely a ski-jump recession, with short-term stimulus creating a bump that will ultimately lead to a more precipitous decline later.”
Equity and credit markets have rallied on hopes that government intervention is pulling the U.S. out of the deepest economic slump since the Great Depression. The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index jumped 51 percent from its 12-year low in March through yesterday.
The economy will expand at an annualized rate of 2 percent or more in four straight quarters through June 2010, the first such streak in more than four years, according to the median estimate of at least 53 forecasters in a Bloomberg survey.
Tudor, the Greenwich, Connecticut-based firm started by Jones in the early 1980s, told clients in an Aug. 3 letter that the stock market’s climb was a…
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by Chart School - August 29th, 2009 4:45 pm
Here’s a comparison chart of this market rally with market rallies during the 1929-1932 bear market. Today’s rally is slightly longer than the longest. But is there any reason to expect greater similarity or, for that matter, that things will be different this time around? – Ilene
Courtesy of Prieur du Plessis’s Investment Postcards from Cape Town
How does the nascent stock market rally compare with the 1929-1932 bear market, which also included bank failures, bankruptcies, severe stock market declines, etc.?
For some perspective, Chart of the Day provided the graph below, illustrating the duration (calendar days) and magnitude (percentage gain) of all significant Dow rallies during the 1929-1932 bear market (solid blue dots).
As the chart shows, the duration of the current rally of the Dow Jones Industrial Index (hollow blue dot labeled “You are here”) is longer than that of any of the rallies that occurred during the 1929-1932 bear market. The bear market rally that began in November 1929 lasted 155 calendar days and occupies the second position. However, as far as magnitude is concerned, the November 1929 rally (+48%) resulted in a better performance than the 46% gain of the Dow since the low of March 9.
Source: Chart of the Day, August 28, 2009.
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by ilene - August 25th, 2009 5:53 pm
Courtesy of The Pragmatic Capitalist
* weak data = Fed ease, stocks rally
* consensus data = lower volatility, stocks rally
* strong data = economy strengthening, stocks rally
* bank loses $4bln = bad news out of the way, stocks rally
* oil spikes = great for energy companies, stocks rally
* oil drops = great for the consumer, stocks rally
* dollar plunges = great for multinationals, stocks rally
* dollar spikes = lowers inflation, stocks rally
* inflation spikes = will inflate all assets, stocks rally
* inflation drops = improves earnings quality, stocks rally
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July 9th, 2020 10:17 am
Courtesy of ZeroHedge View original post here.
The Supreme Court on Thursday ruled that a New York Grand Jury can have President Trump's tax records, after Manhattan prosecutor Cy Vance subpoenaed eight years of returns in connection with an investigation into hush money payments made to porn star Stormy Daniels, according to Axios.
The court has yet to rule on whether House Democrats can have access to the records, after the lawmakers issued subpoenas to Deutsche Bank, Capital One, and the president's longtime accounting fi...
Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...
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