Posts Tagged ‘Taiwan’

China and the U.S.: Too Big to Fail

China and the U.S.: Too Big to Fail

china - TIME By Jeffrey Wasserstrom, courtesy of TIME

 

Beijing has fervently denounced U.S. President Barack Obama’s plan to sell more arms to Taiwan, and loudly demanded that he break his coming date with the Dalai Lama. Is this proof that China-U.S. relations have entered a radically new and deeply worrisome phase?

It’s tempting to see it that way. There has been much talk of China ruling the world and the clash of civilizations this would prompt. Much has been made of the notion that Chinese leaders have been showing an unexpected cockiness vis-à-vis the U.S. of late, tightly controlling what Obama did when in China, refusing to follow American leads in Copenhagen and then lambasting Secretary of State Hillary Clinton for criticizing Beijing in a Jan. 21 speech on Internet freedom. But it’s a temptation worth resisting.

China’s long, slow return to great-power status is of historic importance and something that will lead to recalibrations of many diplomatic relationships, including that between Washington and Beijing. But as foolish as it would be to ignore this, it’s equally foolish to see too much novelty in headline-grabbing stories that fit neatly within established patterns. Chinese officials have expressed outrage before about meetings between foreign leaders and the Dalai Lama. And the Taiwan arms tale follows an even more familiar script. There’s nothing new about a U.S. Administration announcing, as Obama’s just did, that it’s going to sell military hardware to Taiwan. Nor is there anything new about Beijing treating this announcement as proof that the U.S. lacks respect for Chinese sovereignty and for the principles of the "one China" policy that, since the 1970s, has provided the groundwork for relations between the two.

Both sides need to guard against overstating the extent to which the landscape of the international order has changed and against treating China’s rise as a more exotic development than it actually is. Keeping these four things in mind should help:

• Just as all politics is local (to a degree), all diplomacy is domestic (to a large extent). China’s dramatic growth may have increased its ability to be less deferential toward the U.S. But when officials loudly proclaim that foreign leaders should steer clear of the Dalai Lama, lash out against Clinton’s "information imperialism" or stoke popular indignation about Taiwan, their motivation is largely a desire to…
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THE GREAT LIQUIDITY RACE – WHY GOLD WILL SOAR

THE GREAT LIQUIDITY RACE – WHY GOLD WILL SOAR

bull marketCourtesy of The Pragmatic Capitalist

Paul Tudor Jones appears to have shifted from the bear market rally camp to the bull market camp.  As of our last update he was firmly in the position that the market had rallied too much and was due for a downturn.   Late last summer Tudor Jones stated his desire not to chase the 45% rally in stocks and rather, buy into an autumn downturn in anticipation for a year end rally:

While 45% is nothing to ignore, one should take into account that the S&P through July 31 is still down more than 20% on a price basis year-over-year. The bottom line is that we are not inclined to aggressively chase the market here. Rather, we eye a better opportunity to be long equities into year-end on a potential autumnal pullback.

He has changed his tune a bit now and believes the economy has the potential to remain quite robust into Q2 of 2010 as Fed policy remains accommodative, the dollar remains weak and inventory de-stocking continues:

The forceful policy response to avert depression tail risks posed by the financial crisis has likely unleashed a wave of liquidity which is probably greater than that of 2001-2003.  Our job is to identify the best performing assets of this “Great Liquidity Race.”  At present, it appears those assets are gold, emerging market equities denominated in local currencies, and commodity related stocks.

Liquidity is making its way into bond purchases by banks, into equity markets, into capital flows to emerging markets and into international reserve accumulation and related diversification away from the dollar.  This will be the trend over the next quarter—or two—even before discussing potential portfolio shifts within it.

Due to this easy money approach he is becoming heavily invested in gold and other precious metals as he expects metals to win the “great liquidity race”:

“precious metals exposure has been increasing and is currently the largest commodity exposure.  As a result we have included, for this quarter, a separate discussion on gold as an appendix.  I have never been a gold bug.  It is just an asset that, like everything else in life, has its time and place.  And now is that time.”

In the bond market he likes Curve Flatteners as inflation is likely to pick-up in the coming quarters. …
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Kimble Charting Solutions

Dow Megaphone Breakout Continues, As It Tests 77-Year Breakout Level

Courtesy of Chris Kimble

I’ve heard many times over the past 39-years I’ve been in the financial services business that charts have memories? Is it true they do? Is it possible that they have very long-term memories?

This theory looks to be put to a big test by the chart above, which looks at the Dow Jones Industrial Index since 1910.

The Dow has spent the majority of the past 77-years, inside of rising channel (1). While inside of this channel, it looks to have created two very long-term megaphone patterns.

It broke above the first megaphone pattern in the early 1980s, where ...



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Phil's Favorites

As Fed Pumps $3 Trillion into Repo Market, Morgan Stanley and Goldman Sachs Practice Borrowing from the Fed's Discount Window

Courtesy of Pam Martens

James Gorman (left) Chairman and CEO, Morgan Stanley; David Solomon (right) Chairman and CEO, Goldman Sachs

Last week, Jim Grant, the Editor of Grant’s Interest Rate Observer, was interviewed by CNBC’s Rick Santelli. Grant said that since September 17, the Fed has pumped “upwards of $3 trillion” in repo loans to Wall Street. Santelli asked if the Fed had effectively nationalized the repo market. Grant said “there is no more price discovery and we are dealing with administe...



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Zero Hedge

If Not-QE Is QE, Then Is Not-A-Blowoff-Top A Blowoff Top?

Courtesy of ZeroHedge View original post here.

Authored by Charles Hugh Smith via OfTwoMinds blog,

Can $300 billion, or $600 billion, or even $1 trillion continue to prop up an increasingly risk-riddled, fragile $330 trillion global bubble in overvalued assets?

When is "Not-QE" QE? When Federal Reserve Chairperson Jerome Powell declares QE is not QE. We can constructively recall the story that Abraham L...



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Lee's Free Thinking

NY Department of Welfare Announces Increased Subsidies for Primary Dealers, Thank God!

 

NY Department of Welfare Announces Increased Subsidies for Primary Dealers, Thank God!

Courtesy of , Wall Street Examiner

Here’s today’s press release (11/14/19) from the NY Fed verbatim. They’ve announced that they will be making special holiday welfare payments to the Primary Dealers this Christmas season. I have highlighted the relevant text.

The Open Market Trading Desk (the Desk) at the Federal Reserve Bank of New York has released the schedule of repurchase agreement (repo)...



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The Technical Traders

VIX Warns Of Imminent Market Correction

Courtesy of Technical Traders

The VIX is warning that a market peak may be setting up in the global markets and that investors should be cautious of the extremely low price in the VIX. These extremely low prices in the VIX are typically followed by some type of increased volatility in the markets.

The US Federal Reserve continues to push an easy money policy and has recently begun acquiring more dept allowing a deeper move towards a Quantitative Easing stance. This move, along with investor confidence in the US markets, has prompted early warning signs that the market has reached near extreme levels/peaks. 

Vix Value Drops Before Monthly Expiration

When the VIX falls to levels below 12~13, this typically v...



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Insider Scoop

Karuna Therapeutics Shares Rip Higher After Schizophrenia Drug Aces Midstage Trial

Courtesy of Benzinga

Shares of the thinly traded, small-cap biotech Karuna Therapeutics Inc (NASDAQ: KRTX) were moving higher Monday on a positive clinical trial readout.

What Happened

Boston, Massachusetts-based Karuna said the Phase 2 clinic...



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Biotech

Why telling people with diabetes to use Walmart insulin can be dangerous advice

Reminder: We are available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

Why telling people with diabetes to use Walmart insulin can be dangerous advice

A vial of insulin. Prices for the drug, crucial for those with diabetes, have soared in recent years. Oleksandr Nagaiets/Shutterstock.com

Courtesy of Jeffrey Bennett, Vanderbilt University

About 7.4 million people ...



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Chart School

Dow Jones cycle update and are we there yet?

Courtesy of Read the Ticker

Today the Dow and the SP500 are making new all time highs. However all long and strong bull markets end on a new all time high. Today no one knows how many new all time highs are to go, maybe 1 or 100+ more to go, who knows! So are we there yet?

readtheticker.com combine market tools from Richard Wyckoff, Jim Hurst and William Gann to understand and forecast price action. In concept terms (in order), demand and supply, market cycles, and time to price analysis. 

Cycle are excellent to understand the wider picture, after all markets do not move in a straight line and bear markets do follow bull markets. 



CHART 1: The Dow Jones Industrial average with the 900 period cycle.

A) Red Cycle:...

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Digital Currencies

Is Bitcoin a Macro Asset?

 

Is Bitcoin a Macro Asset?

Courtesy of 

As part of Coindesk’s popup podcast series centered around today’s Invest conference, I answered a few questions for Nolan Bauerly about Bitcoin from a wealth management perspective. I decided in December of 2017 that investing directly into crypto currencies was unnecessary and not a good use of a portfolio’s allocation slots. I remain in this posture today but I am openminded about how this may change in the future.

You can listen to this short exchange below:

...



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Mapping The Market

How IPOs Are Priced

Via Jean Luc 

Funny but probably true:

...

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Members' Corner

Despacito - How to Make Money the Old-Fashioned Way - SLOWLY!

Are you ready to retire?  

For most people, the purpose of investing is to build up enough wealth to allow you to retire.  In general, that's usually enough money to reliably generate a year's worth of your average income, each year into your retirement so that that, plus you Social Security, should be enough to pay your bills without having to draw down on your principle.

Unfortunately, as the last decade has shown us, we can't count on bonds to pay us more than 3% and the average return from the stock market over the past 20 years has been erratic - to say the least - with 4 negative years (2000, 2001, 2002 and 2008) and 14 positives, though mostly in the 10% range on the positives.  A string of losses like we had from 2000-02 could easily wipe out a decades worth of gains.

Still, the stock market has been better over the last 10 (7%) an...



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Promotions

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Phil has a chapter in a newly-released eBook that we think you’ll enjoy.

In My Top Strategies for 2017, Phil's chapter is Secret Santa’s Inflation Hedges for 2017.

This chapter isn’t about risk or leverage. Phil present a few smart, practical ideas you can use as a hedge against inflation as well as hedging strategies designed to assist you in staying ahead of the markets.

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About Phil:

Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

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